Gold Update
There is now little doubt that the yearly cycle low in gold is behind us and we are in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
Smart Money Tracker
Gold Update
There is now little doubt that the yearly cycle low in gold is behind us and we are in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
Gary,
Thanks for the video. One outstanding item is the global vision of what may and likely happen,
I think the first significant retracement will be at the time gold reaches the election day level.
It is now clear that yesterday we had a bear trap in the USD.
My comment about the RATS is taken back as further analysis shows that on January 5th NUGT way overextended. Lesson, estimate extremes (i.e. Bollinger bands) as to take profit to reenter later.
So the miners were not lagging and indeed are leading,
“We were told to not miss a trend”
“You know, it is a bull market”
Alex,
Thanks for commenting yesterday on USD and British pound.
Good trading to all.
Welcome, Goild!
Trump’s speech extended USX’ daily cycle till today, day 23.
USX’ emerging dead cat bounce (or rather resumption of its rise) in a new daily cycle should put stocks on fire –> the ensuing breakout in Russell2000, SPX and Nyse Composite will fail; WATCH FOR A DAILY GAP-UP CANDLE NEXT WEEK, THERE WILL BE THE SHORTING OPPORTUNITY IN STOCKS AND CRUDE OIL.
Gary, your definition of what constitutes a ‘retail trader’, one who jumps in and out the market, kinda sounds a lot like what you have been doing.
How would you even know unless you are a subscriber?
In fact we only took profits one time just to make sure the pullback on the 30th was just the banks manufacturing another entry. It was so back in we went and now I doubt I will make any more trades for the next 2-4 months.
So, Gary, you think it’s smart to hold JNUG/NUGT for the next 2-4 months and just sit and watch ? Is it smart to hold 3x for such a long time ? Some of us already are in minus since august…
Any mistimed long trades get will get corrected in a bull market.
But isn’t decay killling my gains that way ? I mean If Day1 I am up 10% and Day2 5% down, Day3 I need much bigger increase to regain my losses Day2. So, on average aren’t my gains eliminated by the decay effect if i hold 3x for e.g 2-3 months ? Hope I am being clear what I mean…
Gary you were telling subscribers that same thing when you told them to buy JNUG at 23 so no, not all mistakes are corrected in bull markets as you see for yourself.
Brian,
They may not be corrected in the time frame that impatient retail traders want them to be corrected in, but all timing mistakes get corrected in bull markets.
I’ll say it again. JNUG will be over $500 and probably over $1000 before this bull is done. Most of you won’t make anything off the bull market. But those that can hang on and let the bull do what it does have the opportunity to make fortunes.
Gary you were in and out several times in Jnug before it finally rallied. I think that’s what Don is talking about. I also remember you doing the same with ERX.
As you know I was trying to catch the bottom of the YCL.
I think we got it and can now hang on.
Nice try though.
I’m not convinced energy stocks are in a long term bull market. Not like gold.
if thats not a direct response to what this site is about
I don’t know what would be…
thanks
my comment was in regard to Garys not trading…
Opps there goes the intermediate trend line in the stock market.
This is the problem with not allowing corrections to run to completion. Not only does it prevent sentiment from resetting thus depriving the market of the fuel it needs to go higher but it also makes the intermediate trend line too steep, making it too easy to be broken. Once it’s broken then the technical traders leave the market making it just that much harder to keep the market propped up.
Ultimately all the PPT interventions just make it tougher and tougher for the establishment to keep stocks elevated. They would be better off just allowing normal corrections. The market would be healthier.
I think we might be witnessing a diamond top reversal in the Dow. If you look at the rise since the Nov election, it took a straight up trajectory absent any normal (i.e. healthy) profit taking, consolidations, flag building etc. Looks vulnerable to a drop all the way back down to 17,000 region. I do however think that could tee up a spectacular rise to well over 20,000. See my chart: http://schrts.co/KWKQdw
Agreed. We may very well be seeing a top after just 2+ months.
https://surfcity.co/2017/01/12/spx-intermediate-cycle-2/
confirmed. Gary is a genius.
10years yield down>>>>>>>>gold up
10years yield down>>>>>>>>dollar down
Why do i not see those days of JNUG and NUGT when they were up 20-30% in one day ? They are mainly 6-7% up while they should increase more…or am I wrong ?
not wrong, miners and leveraged are not inspiring with this rally. Although yen now above 84 and dollar below 101, only remaining peg to hit is vix. Has to close above 14 to show market turnover. If gold closes below 1200 today, I would worry.
You’re doing exactly what Gary said not to do, worry about the day to day wiggles in price, daily divergences, etc. Ignore.
Remember this sector has been decimated, that volume will come back, its just a bit to early, take pleasure in knowing your early and the first one at the bar.
Nice pop in Gold and I am very bullish longer term. That said, we are nearing the timing band where we often see a short term Trading or Daily Cycle top, so I would not be adding any PM complex positions right now based on Time:
https://surfcity.co/2017/01/12/748/
Gary, you may need to re-draw that intermediate cycle trend line at today’s low because USX is on day 23, hence due for an upward reversal –> fuel for stocks delivering an advance, a fools’ advance, next week to a new high.
Well looks like the Trump rally is over… Now starts the gold rush!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aRCPqpnb64
Good vid…
Gary: Funny to see these trolls getting more desperate as the Bull Market advances. It just kills them that you have called this market spot on. This Bull Market is going to rip their faces off!
GMoney- Exactly my thoughts.
rozelina17
I strongly encourage you to make your own decisions in trading. If you’re not sure what you should do, then do not put money at risk. Rather, invest your time in learning, until you get to a point where you can make your own decisions.
Furthermore:
“Why do i not see those days of JNUG and NUGT when they were up 20-30% in one day ? They are mainly 6-7% up while they should increase more…or am I wrong ?”
If this is where your level of understanding is, you’ve got a better chance at the blackjack table, where 100% loss is a near certainty (explanation of why is beyond the scope).
Don’t take my comments the wrong way. I’m just holding the mirror up to you, so you can see your reflection. Making catastrophic trades goes FAR beyond the money you lose. Such losses affect you emotionally for years or even decades. Thus, even after you’ve done your homework and learned enough to make your own decisions, you’ve still got those emotional barriers preventing you from taking advantage of what will be your hard-earned knowledge.
Learn well enough to make your own decisions BEFORE putting money at risk — that way, you’ll NEVER have to overcome the emotional cost.
Well, I doubt you’ll heed my observation — but you certainly will remember it — one way or the other. For your sake, I hope it’s the positive way.
Happy New Year — again, you can take those 3 words one way (just talk), or the other (with a feeling of gratitude toward someone who has saved you from a ton of grief).
The choice is yours!
I would add: Rozelina, if you will not follow this advise then subscribe to Gary’s service and follow him closely. Do not take trades based on someone’s post. Follow Gary and you would do much better.
Zkotpen
Thank you very much for your advice. Much appreciate it…more than what you think. But how can someone learn making right decisions ? What is your secret ? Happy New Year to you too!
Hi, I’m gonna say learn trading is not easy, you’ve to practice, there are a lot of fundamentals, indicators and technicals and timeframes too.
With teacher you should learn in two years or so, but with a good teacher.
Alone it will take you 3 to 5 years, as in any business, and you’ll never learn everything.
The most use a main technical, as Gary, others other one.
And there are virtual accounts to do it, as with investopedia.
I use Demographics, Fibonacci, Stochastics, Volume, and some times Americanbulls signals, but for mi own trading.
Yesterday I went short Platinum with an PPLT americanbulls sell signal in overbought stochastics, with a CFD on Plus 500, for a short time frame, planning buy long silver on the dip.
Better if Gold makes a inverse head below 1025
zkotpen,
your post is quite confusing. First, let me agree with your motherhood statement that one is always responsible for one’s actions be it investing or something else.
Having said that I would say that the underlying question asked by rozelina17 is a sold one. If you haven’t understood then let me see if I can simplify it for you. The basic question is why aren’t miners doing as well as gold to-day? I would say it is a probing questions for the so called ALL knowing experts here.
To question someone’s “level of understanding” based on such a great question is nothing but height of arrogance.
I have no doubt that you know much about investing and many other matters, but then you must be kind to some of us who are not very intelligent and/or knowledgeable.
You can enlighten us with your knowledge so that we can learn, like Gary does. Or, you can be arrogant and put us starters down, as you have done. The choice is yours!
Please Don’t take my comments the wrong way. I’m just holding the mirror up to you, Happy New Year.
Gary,
I was going to ask your strategy regarding the inevitable DCH and subsequent pullback in gold, but it seems your answer is, “just buy”.
You know I’m a huge Romantic. Even so, I’ve been known to read Tennyson on (very rare) occasion:
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Some one had blunder’d.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
Unless I see something to make me think the intermediate cycle has topped I’m not going to try to avoid the first DCL. It could run much longer than I expect (like the baby bull did) and I could get left behind.
We should still have 2-3 months before the intermediate cycle tops.
USDJPY set its HCL today right at its 10Wma –> the ensuing rise of USD (and of risk-on stocks/commdoities) is the last breath of the bull in this Yearly Cycle.
Commercials (smart money) will use, are already using these rallies (energy commodities have already started theirs) to add large shorts –> I expect to see COT reports tomorrow adding BIG TIME to the net short positions of commercials in all risk-on assets and in USD, and further to top (i.e., commercials’ net short positions) in next week’s COT.
it should take gold down…
yeap, indeed, Victor, but…NOT FOR A LONG TIME: GOLD AND TREASURIES SHOULD FIND THEIR DCLs (and risk-on assets along with USD their tops) on Tuesday or so –> the time to enter short rosk-on and long risk-off
NTCXF or NXT.V is up again huge…, watch when they sign agreement for Middle East 1,000 MW project…
Silver is still sluggish.
rozelina17
Think about 3 things for a while:
1. Probability assessment. How to figure out whether a market is more likely to move one way, or the other, and also a reasonable idea of the timing of those moves. By reasonable, I mean close enough to make time decay on those leveraged instruments a non-factor, but not too close that you end up missing moves by trying to time them down to the exact minute (or otherwise closer than your analysis will allow).
2. Strategy. You must have one, and follow it.
3. Risk management. Clearly saving the most important for last here! No market move is a certainty — figure out how to make sure your losses are small, and your gains are large. Thus, even if your probability assessment is only a coin flip, you still profit in the long run.
One solid rule of thumb is, do not enter a trade unless the reward to risk ratio is at least 3:1. In that case, even if you only trade coin flips in terms of probabilities (50-50 probability, AND randomly distributed), you will make money and avoid loss. That way, each loss will just be “the cost of doing business”, and each win will be “the profits from doing business” — that will keep you free and clear of the destructive emotional traps: fear of loss on the one hand, and false sense of invincibility on the other.
For me, I like math & science, especially patterns & statistics.
My current challenge in markets is pretty much spiritual in nature: Distinguishing between dreams, predictions, and expectations. Dreams (& trying to achieve them!) are what make life worth living (for me). Predictions are how I think a pattern will play out, if the math backs that up, and if the market actually does as BOTH patterns & math predict. Expectations are deadly. All three deal with past, present, and future events & outcomes. If you’re already making a shopping list the moment after you enter a trade, for example, that’s heaping a huge expectation on the market, which has an emotional affect on you. The problem is, even though you think you’re right, the outcome is still uncertain. By getting emotionally attached to your preferred outcome, you affect your own ongoing assessment & management of your trade. Therefore, the challenge is to do your best to most accurately predict the move, while still knowing 100% that the actual outcome remains uncertain. So keep your prediction, but let go of your expectation.
Hope this helps!
“there are lies more lies and statistics”
Using maths to predict human behavior? I love jokes but this one is a special one.
Alexandru I love how you can even give us the exact date for certain assets to top and bottom when you could not even get the SM right for months on end, every day calling for a top. You are hilarious!!! The best contrarian indicator out there.
brian, typical of newsletter writers strategy, keep repeating a very date specific and/or price target on some market into the future in spite of actual market action for as long as it takes. In the case of Alwx, now close to two months, keep up the mantra with the hope you will be eventually right irrespective how relevant that may be considering how long you’ve been wrong. The trick being, even if you have a dozen or more guesses wrong, the only one to focus on with unrelenting reminder is the one which happened to work. You then rinse and repeat the cycle.
jonsyl 100% agree. Alexandru has no shame I see as keeps posting the same garbage month after month. Eventually he will be right as no markets go up forever without correcting but end of the day he has no idea when that will be. I agree he likes to throw out predictions on a bunch of asset classes hoping one will stick and that will be the one he reminds everyone about forgetting that he got the other 9 dreadfully wrong.
Gary, GDX has basically double topped and has not been performing well at all in relation to gold which went to 1207. Gold also very weak up here. It looks like a big pullback coming. A DCL coming?
Maybe a HCL, but it’s probably a bit early for a DCL. The gold cycle has evolved to run 35-45 days.
Ok
??? Nothing in my Cycle works suggests that the normal 23-29 day cycle in Gold has changed at all.
Sometimes a bit longer or shorter but nothing close to 45 days…
some people cannot read properly – since the beginning of this year I am talking about stocks breaking out higher first … let me repeat: I am a stock market bull short term (in case you can read this too).
Alexandu you were calling SM scorch for months now. I see you are also a liar just like Trump.
Alexandru how stupid do you think people are? Do you think everyone has forgotten how you have been calling the SM scorch for months now all the way to all time highs? You have serious mental issues if you are now going back and saying you were a SM bull these last few months when clearly you were not! Get some class, quit lying and stop with your idiotic and now revisionist predictions. You are making yourself look like a fool.
And yes Alexandru you may be a SM bull since Jan 1 but you were a SM bear calling the big scorch in the SM for months previously so does that not tell you that you have no idea where the SM is going? Why bother posting predictions when you were badly wrong for months?
Brian, Alex is reading the market well, but it hard to fight with computers which has much-much more information then we are able to obtain, even more we got the information that is aiming to deceive us…, for me – we get a crumples that are falling from big banks tables…
Victor how is Alex reading the market well when for months he had been calling for SM scorch and the market went up every day to all time highs as he kept calling for the big drop?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4036450-gold-versus-gdx-buy-now
Crude oil has confirmed its new daily cycle but still has got fuel to run up a not in order to allow XLE to confirm its new cycle too.
The Scorch started on NOV 15 when utilities bottom. It is a fact.
It is also a fact that I had called for a SM advance after an ICL back in OCT – it is true that this advance in risk-on assets has got more steam than I had thought but THIS RALLY REMAINS A FOOLS’ RALLY, FOOLS LIKE BRIAN AND MICHELLE.
THIS IS A FACT TOO BECAUSE COT REPORTS SHOW MASSIVE AND CONSTANT DUMPING OF STOCKS, actually of mounting shorts, while the stupid like Brian and Michelle were buying.
Numbers in COTs clearly show commercials going bears while SM advanced aggressively on The Stupids’ buying.
… Called for SM advance before, in october, not after the ICL in november
smart money have been growing bears of stocks market since the ICL in November – just as I had expected in October!
alex the stupid’s have been right in buying SM advanced in spite of cots reports or anything else. At least to this point.
Yes the SM will correct, I’ve always felt most likely with option expiry which ironically seems to be your view now which has me worried. LOL But keep up with the calls, they are fun to read
Alexandru you have a way of twisting things around. You are like Trump with your lies and distortions. You said in october the market would start to tank back then and it ran to all time highs
Since then. Good luck with your revisionist history.
The longer people remain in denial about the stock market manipulation the more money they will lose trying to short it.
The corrections tend to happen very quickly over the span of 1-3 days before the PPT regains control and rescues it. Trying to time those 2-3 days is a fools errand IMO.
Agreed Gary the drip started at 2:30 and I watched it drip all the way back to the closing price of yesterday and I said these bastards are gonna do it again and sure enough … biggest crock of bs I’ve ever seen. … oh well we live to play another day.
Gary why would some PPT step in to stop the market from correcting a bit after such a huge and quick run? Is the Obama admin stepping in to help Trump? Some of the things you say make absolutely no sense. You think every time the market dips that some PPT goes in and buys it back up. If that is the case then this market will NEVER correct. And if there is a PPT doing what you do why did they not step in last year when the market had a decent correction? Again, it makes no sense some of the things you contend.
Gary we will all be long dead before jnug sees 500. How can you seriously throw around such lofty numbers? Better tell us if jnug can see 23 even in 2017 or whether one will need to wait more than a year to see that level.
You will never make it to 500, but I guarantee JNUG will.
Gold is going to at least $5000 before this bull is done and maybe as high as $10,000.
Gary you won’t be alive to see the DOW at 40K so what exactly is your point? Better you tell us when JNUG will see 23? Anyone can say JNUG will see 500 many years from now. Not useful/actionable such predictions of yours.
Hello brianbreeze.
If you have seen my posts, you will note that I do not always agree or disagree with anyone here. I like to be responsible for my actions.
First, note that investing in the stocks is very different than playing the stock market. What is being done on this site is absolute speculation. And, most of the people here honestly believe that their mambo jumbo is scientifically based. LOL!
The name of the game is to correctly predict the direction of the market. It can result in big gains and big losses depending on whether one is right or wrong. Gold speculation is additionally more speculative. And, the miners are even more leveraged. Furthermore, the juniors i.e. small caps or very small caps (the j part of junug) are significantly more leveraged than the larger miners. AND, now if you multiply that leverage with 3X it becomes cleat how volatile these entities are.
People play them because when correct rewards can be mind boggling.
In short, let me say that if gold goes up significantly without a large downturn, rewards in jnug will be beyond belief.
But remember that the price has to keep on going up without very significant correction. To explain this point I will need more space but it suffices to say that a large turn downturn can be devastating. Regarding juniors, they can go up 1000% or even 5000% in no time at all because at present they are quite under-priced.
I do not know whether Gary’s predictions will be correct. But, the matter of fact is that things can become even rosier than what he says. But, always remember that at any point a 30% loss will result in 90% loss in 3X. In micro miners a 30% loss is not a big deal.
I wish you good luck in whatever you do.
When I said “under-priced”, I meant historically speaking.
Gary, SM has not stopped its correction today because of any PPT.
It was predictable to be a temporary event, as I mentioned here above while the correction was underway.
A b/o to new high, an exhaustion gap-up next week and shorting time will come at that very moment — you will see that nothing will be there to half the ensuing distribution of SPX below 2080.