Jan. 25 market wrap

It boils down to me expecting stocks to help push gold out of its YCL. (The Dow did signal a failed daily cycle after all.) They were doing that nicely until today. Today they changed the rules of the game again. They moved the goal post on me.

Now I need to get my bearings again and figure out if I still want to play the game with these new rules.
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129 thoughts on “Jan. 25 market wrap

  1. WallStreetJesus

    Gary – I think you worry too much. Surely you can’t be worried about a $10-$20 drop in gold should it occur.

    Its a bull market.

    How many times have you talked about trying to time the market and getting left behind.

    1. Gary Post author

      Listen to the video again. This has nothing to do with gold.

      Gold has done nothing wrong.

      This has to do with a wild card in the form of today’s stock market intervention that may have pushed the yearly cycle low back another 3-4 months. That may have the potential to alter the gold and currency cycles just like the election night intervention did.

      It doesn’t hurt anything to see how this plays out. We made some monster gains during this rally. No sense giving a chunk of those back if this does effect the metals.

      If stocks give it all back tomorrow then I’ll relax.

        1. Pedestrian

          Tulip, you might have Java or some other scripts turned off or your security settings are too high. It is probably a browser problem. Use a different browser.

    2. bill

      I held, a.15 cent move down in NUGT is not even something to get excited about, To me traders are still feeling unsure and the dip buyers proved this with volume I might add, if anything we pull back I may buy a half a lot. If the market does indeed break to the upside In my opinion it won’t stay there long as many will be selling on that strength and grabbing profits from the last few months of coiling.

      None the less I’m liking the action many what ifs and confusion, being in the right spot at the right time can yield some serious paper coupons .

      Best of luck either way and thank you Gary

  2. dragonfly

    So yeah, what chould I say? This is atleast weird.
    I´m hearing Gary say , like forever, that when EVERYBODY is getting bearish, that´s when the big move up chould be expected!
    Well, now that even Gary is getting bearish I HAVE to take this as a huge buysignal. No?
    Hmmmm, gonna think that over?????

    1. Gary Post author

      Right now sentiment in gold is back to neutral. That being said this has nothing to do with sentiment, cycles, or technicals. This has to do with a rigged stock market. I want to see if that is going to effect the gold rally.

      1. dragonfly

        Gary, thanks for your answer. But I have to express another opinion, not that I think to know better, far from it. I have been a follower of your site for a while now and must say, have learned much an always appreciated your approach. And ofcourse, if we would have a cristalball, we´d all be billionaires like the Donald ;-).
        But, you talk about the intervention in the stockmarket today (and I would be the last to say, they wouldn´t do or dare), but what if, the trumpmania just continious for the moment to take the uforia to the extreme level. He´s gonna make amerika great again (ofcourse) seems to forfill all the expectation, all promisses kept, gonna do all the tax-cuts as promised.
        Today the union guys went to see him and even they were extatic, they love him, he makes them feel important… this oilpipeline, no worries, even the Chinees are quiet (scared) etc, etc..
        And doesn´t haughtiness comes before the fall.
        I (also) read asian newspapers and it seems to become an issue now for Xi Jingping that he doesn´t want to react on the tweeds or talk of Trump (as he was advised by Kissinger) but it is becoming an issue that he can´t afford loosing face. This would undermine his strenght in his own country, and seems that he is at a point he must (re)act, and word is that if he does it will be a very strong reaction. Seems opposition is building in the politbureau…..
        If this would happen sentiment could swing quickly , don´t you think?
        And I can think of a hundred more things…….

      2. ras

        You seem to be expecting a see saw between SM and pm sector. Some times they seem to move in phase and sometimes anti phase. Hard to tell.

        dia, spy, iwm essentially moving sideways for about 7 weeks. qld seems to be the only outlier with an upward bias, possibly because of aapl, amzn, goog and the like. None of the market momo indicators are making new highs: some weakening and some flat. No matter which way the SM goes, interesting times ahead.

  3. Albertarocks

    I also tightened stops today and even flat out bailed out of some my miners. They just are not acting right. Absolutely no volume… stuck in one place, especially the juniors. It’s like they have absolutely no conviction that gold is going to stay up at these levels. On top of that, the daily charts of GDX, GDXJ and most of the miners show a negative divergence lately. The momentum indicators are all showing new recent highs but the shares themselves are not. And on top of that, those momentum indicators are overbought and rolling lower.

    True, I have said that *if we are convinced we are in a bull market*, then we shouldn’t even be looking for signs of “overbought” conditions. But I still look for these kind of divergences between momentum indicators and price action itself, and I’m seeing them now. At the very least, this is a time to be very cautious. There is nothing wrong with selling shares that look like they want to dump and buying then back later for 30% off. I’m still mostly long but raising cash right now. Whichever of my stocks decide to get stopped out, so be it. If any refuse to fall, great, those ones are the keepers.

  4. Strike

    Maybe right short term move Gary – I’m not sure. But I respectfully suggest if it is right, it’s for the wrong reason. Stock market is not always counter to gold. I say we should look to the dollar for information, not the stock market.

    DXY, not SPX, IMHO, drives $GOLD.

    1. Gary Post author

      It boils down to me expecting stocks to help push gold out of its YCL. They were doing that nicely until today. Today they changed the rules of the game again. They moved the goal post on me.

      Now I need to get my bearings again and figure out if I still want to play the game with these new rules.

      1. Robert

        Gary, I think you are over analyzing. I have looked on gold daily cycles from 2015 to today. Majority of them last 28-30 odd days so don’t see why this one should be any diff. Day 25 is late and a correction should be expected here. The only exception I see was that one you called the baby bull rally last year. So hopefully we can see 1200 or little lower by Fri or next week and then the new leg up starts shortly after

        1. Gary Post author

          As you can see the majority of cycles nowadays are 30-40+ days. The gold cycles have evolved into longer timing bands along with the currency cycles.

          1. Pedestrian

            I would agree the cycle is longer. It looks to me that gold will bottom into this current half cycle decline on the 17th or 20th of February just prior to gold options expiry. Just enough time to make sure all the longs are worthless come the 23rd. We should get a strong, brief bounce at that time off a what will be a double bottom near 1125 from a good support region. That is my outlook right now. How it affects GDX or other ETF’s is not as easy to determine so we’ll just play it by ear.

  5. Robert

    Ped sorry but that seems too long. My guess is this the start of the half cycle Gary has been talking about few days ago and will prbly just run a week or till end of month. Then new leg up starting Feb or as early as next week

    1. Gary Post author

      If we are going to get a HCL it should begin immediately and only last 3-4 days. Just long enough to push the 3 day RSI down to oversold levels. Then gold should finish the move into its daily cycle top, maybe around 1250.

      But like I said, with the intervention in the stock market today they changed the rules on me. I’m not sure if or how this might affect the gold cycle. So I want to wait a bit and see how things play out.

      The perfect scenario would be for stocks to give back all of today’s gains tomorrow and confirm this was nothing more than an intervention and one that failed.

      1. Robert

        OK. I highly doubt stocks will give back all gains. Too much bullish call option buying in many different stocks today. Big money usually knows the moves coming, highly unlikely they put millions to work today to only see it all gone by tomorrow. Let’s see

    2. Pedestrian

      No problem Robert. These kinds of forecasts are always difficult and usually subject to revision. I will tell you part of how I arrived at the estimate though if that helps. Recall a few days back I had noted the almost perfectly straight angle that gold rose at since its bottom in middle December. Call it a 45 degree angle which it roughly approximates. Anyway, those kinds of patterns (which have been rare for gold the last few years) are called “V” bottoms and what should follow if we do get our decline is a near mirror image decline back to the base. So its simple enough to gauge where the bottom will land if the mirror idea is valid and the angle is similar. This is obviously speculative talk but you can go and check on other charts for yourself to see other V bottoms and just note how commonly the reversal is as I described. In other words, don’t take my word for it. Just go look and come to your own conclusions. All of this is subject to gold prices continuing to fall of course. And as you know there are no guarantees in that regard so don’t ask me for your money back!

      1. Robert

        Sounds good. Either way based on Gary uncertainty and this V pattern I think it is about 80% sure we will hit at least 1200 retest. Puts or JDST should be safe for now. I hope to buy more miners cheaper

        1. Pedestrian

          That makes two of us Robert. Lets see what tomorrow brings. For gold I think we head back to around 1213 to 1214 region before turning back down again. Call it 1213.50 for the sake of argument.

          1. Pedestrian

            Scratch that comment, Robert. I must be getting cross-eyed on my charts. If we see a little bounce back later today it should not get higher than 1209, and then only briefly at that.

  6. Goild

    I am just looking at tomorrow.
    From today I glean that the best correlation of gold was with the Yen.
    Both Gold and Yen appear to be a channel-wedge, triangle, that suggests tomorrow to be a bad day for gold and the wedge would resolve either on Thursday or Friday.
    TIP led Gold’s V rally and now is leading the retreat, consistent with the wedge.
    That means USD will survive tomorrow above support.
    Monday’s advance, and today’s advance and failure are typical of bad weeks.
    SM should attempt to breakout, and indeed it can happen deferring gold’s uprising.
    Miners were very resilient today but likely tomorrow they will go down.

    It would be surprising if USD breaks support tomorrow.

    1. Robert

      Hope so. Best case scenario is for no bounce or gap up in miners at the open. If gdx opens lower than today’s close and doesn’t bounce then there will be some panic leading to a sharper drop. The miners need to catch up to gold’s fall

  7. gent25

    Every day is a new flavor of the day with Gary. One day its baby bull and all dips get righted and recover.
    Today its “they moved the goal posts on me” tomorrow its another flavor who knows what.

    1. Gary Post author

      When the market does something I’m not expecting I have no problem reversing course.

      I recommended everyone stop out when gold broke 1275. Those that did are now up very nicely on their metal trades. We managed to avoid the rest of the decline into the stretched intermediate cycle low and then reenter at almost the exact bottom. So not only did we recover all the losses but are now at higher levels than we were at the August top.

      Those that chose to ignore that stop are still down big.

      The stock market is not doing what it should be doing. I for one am going to pay attention as it could effect the currency cycles and maybe the gold cycle.

      This is simply what we have to deal with ever since central banks discovered they could control the business cycle by propping up the stock market back in 2011.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s just ridiculous. We made 84% on this move. If that’s what you call not knowing how to be positioned then I’m all for a more of it.

  8. Goild

    There is much more at stake by having gold break support, than having gold drop a bit.
    That decision will likely not be made on a Wednesday which is neutral day.
    First the SM should try to breakout.
    So tomorrow again looks like a bad day for gold.

  9. bill

    Word going around Gary this little pop was related to the $ 1 trillion dollar infrastructure proposal from the Senate, of course I’m sure it’s packed with pork for their constituency.

    Semmes a little light for a $20 trillion dollar economy, maybe the market was a little emotionally punch drunk on this news.

    1. Gary Post author

      The market has known for months about Trumps stimulus project. Nothing about this rally was ever based on that. First off we can’t know whether he will get the money for it, what the interest rates on that money will be, and even if he does the economy won’t feel the effect of any of this for at least a couple of years.

      This was never about infrastructure spending, that’s just what the media is using as an excuse to why the market is rallying.

  10. Goild


    Things are really at a very critical point, and USD, Gold, and SM can go either way.
    I really do not how much a gold’s drop might be, but since I am out all in cash it would be nice for me if drops substantially so I can enter again at a very low price. However, an educated guess is that if there is a dip it would drop between $1175 and $1195 as to hit the stops. I am on the premise that the low of December 2016 was overdone and that the V rally was a necessary urgent correction.
    My take is that the situation is at a very, very critical point

    1. Gary Post author

      Nothing is a given at this moment. Like I said the perfect scenario would be for stocks to give back all of today’s gains and negate the intervention.

      I have no idea what the odds of that are, so I’ll wait and see.

  11. Don

    So who’s intervening and why would ‘they’ be doing so when the market is at all time highs? Doesn’t make sense to me.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually it makes complete sense. Central banks discovered they could control the business cycle by propping up the stock market. It’s simply impossible for the economy to roll over into recession as long as the stock market keeps rising.

      Notice they temporarily lost control of the market during the 7 YCL and we haven’t had a normal intermediate correction since then. Intermediate corrections are supposed to last 4-6 weeks and turn sentiment bearish. We haven’t had anything in a year that even managed to push sentiment much below 50% bulls, much less the 20-30% that should be seen at an intermediate bottom.

      The market is acting exactly like it did during the periods of QE when there was simply too much money flowing into the market for it to deliver a normal profit taking event.

    1. Pedestrian

      Make that 1203 now. A nice predictable looking slide too. Much as I expected, it is falling at about the same angle that it rose. So we should see this bottom in the third week of February if the decline continues. I have a time target on this of February 17th.

  12. Goild

    This will be the 6th week S&P is hitting about 2275.
    The candles are having a small range.
    It will not stay there much longer.

  13. Pedestrian

    Just after 1:00 am NYT and I can already predict with some confidence that today (Wednesday) is going to be a very difficult one for the gold bulls. Declines in leveraged trades like NUGT could feel precipitous and there is little to hope for in the way of good news until next Monday at the earliest. For the traders who took cover or lightened up their longs yesterday; congratulations. I suspect you will be glad you ducked out as a couple days of carnage in the gold market ensues. As I write this, gold is just on the verge of hitting 1201 and the 5 minute chart has turned to a waterfall decline.

    1. Pedestrian

      I like your chart Dday. Notice how all the action right now was predictable based on the indicators you posted there? I don’t know how the bulls could have overlooked all of it but as recently as a few hours ago I was still reading comments saying gold was about to take off and go higher based on an inverse head and shoulders pattern.

      Someone has to lose. And it must be the majority for the market to work. RSI was telling us a little about positioning. And yet some people were trying to say there was excess bearishness in the gold market when in fact it was a case of too much bullishness.

      And all those special snowflakes who thought that 2017 was going to be an easy home-run carbon copy of 2017 are going to see their options go to zero and their money evaporate because they were trying to play an idea (seasonality) instead of just reading the charts and indicators.

      We really need to get a club going here devoted to swing trading gold markets. If only to tune up everyone’s minds and keep them flexible, fit and top of the game. Once you revert to the lazy practice of buy and hold you are just so screwed.in these kinds of markets.

  14. Dday

    But keep in mind the weekly continues to look great for a bullish set up. Small pullback this week……

    1. Pedestrian

      It’s not my area. But I am all ears if you have a recommendation. The only uranium companies that pop into my head on a seconds notice are Dennison Mines and UUU.

      1. Dday

        Hi Pedestrian, yep majority of Uranium shares broke out beginning of Jan….Its more a comment about getting too bogged down in one market…ie gold. I like to keep an eye on commodity markets, plenty of opportunity… But yea DML and UUU have done pretty well….

        1. Pedestrian

          So is it already too late in the cycle to start buying? Gold began going up in January too and look where its headed now.

  15. zkotpen

    “Fortunate and devoted investor,
    Take the market as an example,
    Practice without any sense of bull or bear.”

    “I was happy practicing with the market,
    But a little uneasy about bringing forecasts into the practice.
    Please give me instruction on practicing with forecasts.”

    “If you are happy practicing with the market,
    Forecasts are the market’s magical creations.
    Be the market itself.”

    1. zkotpen

      Oops! The above came out a little prematurely. It should read:

      “Fortunate and devoted investor,
      Take the market as an example,
      Practice without any sense of profit or loss.”

      “I was happy practicing with the market,
      But a little uneasy about bringing bulls and bears into the practice.
      Please give me instruction on practicing with bulls and bears.”

      “If you are happy practicing with the market,
      Bulls and bears are the market’s magical creations.
      Be the market itself.”

  16. JP Holland

    Hey guys,

    I’m in Europe and new here but have been following the website for a long time.
    I agree with Gary that yesterday’s stock market action is suspect to say the least. In fact, I think it’s utter manipulation from the scum on Wall Street and London. There is no logic or technical set-up that can explain this crazy move, and it forced me to give up my gold position as well – too risky to stay in.

    Nevertheless, something interesting is going on during the European session this morning: the boyz typically are able to manipulate either Sterling, Euro and or JPY down by at least 60pips during some point in the session, between 4-8am ET (10am-2pm local time) and use that to fuel the dollar and the S&P higher, while putting pressure on gold.

    This morning though, they seem to fail getting control over these markets. They are also unable to keep Oil elevated, which puts further pressure on their sick prop-up game that has been going on for 8 years now.

    I’m carefully watching the DXY: if the $ index drops below 100, we might see the start of an avalanche that will take the stock market down with it and allow for the next rip in gold (DXY is 100.04 at the moment).

  17. Pedestrian

    Off the topic by a mile but…..Do you want to have a sleepless night? Well consider this then. The US-Mexico border wall that is now being planned and could be officially announced by an executive order this week, might not be built to keep Mexicans out at all. What if its really to keep American’s in? See, that’s what nobody talks about. When East Germany was putting up its wall there was plenty of opportunity for months on end for anyone to just walk over to the other side. Once it was built though, very few ever managed to cross successfully. I wonder if this is being done as global cooling progresses and millions of NA refugees would be seeking a warmer climate to live. Within 7 short years we could see Sun spot activity fall to zero. Sun cycle 25 is predicted to go to lows not seen in hundreds of years. That means the atmosphere will cool more than normal and in the process gradually lower sea temps. And that in turn means failed crops, arctic conditions in less Northerly zones, summers without heat and potentially floods of people heading South to take refuge. And that’s why Mr Trump says the Mexicans will pay for the wall. Because higher on up everybody already knows it will be there to keep people in, not keep people out.

    1. Pedestrian

      Dollar is just in a basing process and getting ready to launch. Gold is following yen mostly. You might get a trade out of silver today on a bounce. It’s not beating to the exact same drum as gold right now.

  18. Goild

    I also take it that the computers that run the show sometimes lag as they do not have all information in the premarket hours.

  19. Robert

    I am wondering why miners are still so high with gold near 1200. If they don’t begin to give back heavily today then that would be bullish

    1. Gary Post author

      I think what is happening is gold is dropping into the half cycle low. That shouldn’t last very long and I would like to see it hold the 1200 level while it does so. Then another leg up to the daily cycle top.

      That’s what I think is occurring. The stock market is the wild card. I’m not sure how that will effect the rest of the gold cycle.

  20. zkotpen

    Calling All Quants:

    Porter Collins: You’re completely sure of the math?
    Jared Vennett: Look at him. That’s My Quant.
    Mark Baum: Your what?
    JV: My Quantitative!

    I love it when a movie surreptitiously references another movie.

    Has anybody seen Mike Hunt?

    Had to sneak out to see that one, in 1982… Mom & Dad would never approve!

    Good drama, good comedy. But if you’re looking for some inspirational cinema to watch while on the sidelines waiting for the intermediate climb in metals to resume, nothing comes close to

    The Gold Rush. It is the ultimate portrayal of gold prospectors, always and everywhere.

    In particular, these sideways movements are most elegantly portrayed in that scene where the Tramp & Big Jim McKay wake up after a massive blizzard & their cabin is teetering on the edge of an abyss.

    Don’t (let your account) fall into an abyss!

  21. LiesandDamnLies

    Panic and the pigeons are flocking.

    Can I remind you folks that the Chinese new year is just in the initial stage of beginning to start. Have a look at what happens to the gold market every year when the Chinese go on holiday’s for a week. Go back several years making sure of the dates of the holiday week in China.

    For many people in China this is the only time when they can go back home to visit their families for a week. China is off the gold market transactions for a week. They are one of the most dominant price setters for the gold market.

    While the The Chinese are away from their trading desks the banks from “The creature of Jekkyl Island” have free access to the gold market. The banks GS, DB , MS, J P Morgan , Credit Swiss and the others.

    These “Creatures” have to combined power to forth the SM up and GLD for a couple of days to shake out the gold bulls (Gary in this case as well) and then as early as the 27-28 of January cause a huge surge in gold price by selling SM (for a gain) and buy the bottoms of all the Gold ETF’s. Huge surge in gold price until the 6-7 of February.

    Just a theory from a statistician from down under. Look at the history folks and make money out of it if you agree.

    Cheers Lies

    1. LiesandDamnLies

      Correction shake the SM up and the gold markets down for a couple of days.

      Sorry abut that folks, typing to fast.

  22. dboz

    Well I am confused for sure. Gary said we could expect a pull back or dip. Here it is. Nothing goes straight up or down. Now after one down day everyone has turned bearish? The entire picture and outlook has changed? Are metals expected to roll over and drop to new lows? Are gold and silver just speculation and in reality of the world today have little value? The belief in fiat and 175 trillion in world debt is no big deal suddenly? I thought this dip would provide fuel to let others in a shake out weak hands again? So should I stay or should I go? I hate selling my positions but hate losing money worse. If we drop it may be steep as Ped has theorized. If we go down again the damage will be severe as those interested in the sector will be scorched again. It will take some time to get bulls back on board. Don’t know what to do at this point. Probably wait, may pull 50% off? I see why 99% make no money in this market.

  23. zkotpen


    “I am wondering why miners are still so high with gold near 1200.”

    It’s funny how I was working on the answer just as you were posting your question:

    The Gold Rush… these sideways movements are most elegantly portrayed in that scene where the Tramp & Big Jim McKay wake up after a massive blizzard & their cabin is teetering on the edge of an abyss.

    Pay close attention to how that scene plays out!

  24. Goild

    What appears to be happening is a re adjustment in gold price.
    Consider that USD is down about 3% from the recent high, but gold has gone +7%.
    What that means is that gold is weak. Gold responds also to TIP and TIP is down.
    The miners are very responsive to USD and so they have been resilient.

  25. Goild

    With the SM up, we can see the same as yesterday meaning USD going a bit up.
    Though one must be ready as the SM can collapse any day.

  26. Gary Post author

    I think what is happening is gold is moving down into a half cycle low. I would like to see that hold 1200. The bounce this morning off that level may be it doing just that. Then we should get one more leg up before the daily cycle tops. Like I said in yesterday’s video the euro needs to deliver a strongly right translated daily cycle.

    The wild card is the stock market. Gold needs to finish the dip into the HCL and bounce in spite of the stock market intervention. So it will be a few days while we wait to see if it does ignore stocks.

  27. zkotpen


    “We really need to get a club going here devoted to swing trading gold markets.”

    Count me in… as I’ve been saying for almost a year, when last year’s 1st ICH & subsequent ICL decline & the subsequent push to the 2016 YCH got crappier and crappier almost by the day: Both bulls & bears will get crushed for the next few years. Best to swing trade (DC’s or sub-DC’s) or trade IC’s.

    I agree with the need for the mental preparedness.

    There is also a need for emotional preparedness. I have recommended a movie and a book that help with that area & also addressing WSJ’s comment from 2 posts ago, about forecasting vis à vis coin flipping, and strategy.

    I have been suggesting that the daily cycle decline looks more sideways than down for since Jan 5 in GDX and Jan 12 in gold. The more it plays out, the shallower I think this daily cycle decline will be… SO…


    More & more I’m liking the double zig zag wave up for the 2017 yearly cycle high. Every day, it’s looking more like we’ve had wave A up of the 1st zig zag, some sort of triangle or other corrective pattern with a triangle in the middle for wave B, then another move up to wave C, to complete the 1st zig zag.

    The bulls will then get giddy, and the ensuing X wave will clobber them. Then, the bears will be waxing & get carbozzled as well, when they fail to get their lower lows this year. Then it’s off to the (slower than bulls want) races to the YCH — does anybody remember Saint Paddy’s Day, 2014? Something along those lines. At that moment, dee bulls sind kaputt!

    For now, the Jan 19 low in gold is holding, and, at least as important, THE 20 DAY SMA CHART IS SHOWING CONTRACTING VOLATILITY AT THE DAILY CYCLE DEGREE. Quite often, I get some lovely divergences to indicate whether a triangle is more likely to break out or break down. Case in point: Last September’s triangle pointed down as early as mid-month. This time, I’m getting divergences in both directions — we could see this consolidation as just a triangle all by itself, or it could be a move down, followed by a triangle, then another move down (to test the 20 day SMA), followed by a sharp reversal upward.

    As I suggested above,

    Bulls and bears are the market’s magical creations.
    Be the market itself.

    For 2017 — and perhaps the next few years — that means swing trading!

    While awaiting some resolution, I know it’s time to revisit The Gold Rush for the 5th or 6th time.

    But for some reason, I wanna watch Randolph Scott go out & kill 7 bad guys!

    ~ Happy Trading ~ Stay Safe ~

    1. Gary Post author

      I suggest you read my morning report for a workable strategy going forward instead of letting your emotions cause you to over trade right now based on every little intraday wiggle.

  28. Goild

    Thanks Dday, yes I dropped the NUGT 1 1/2 lot.
    I need to learn patience and wait more for clear opportunities.
    Good trading to all.

    1. Gary Post author

      The next buying opportunity is about 10-15 days away at this point.

      We need to see if gold recovers from the half cycle low and goes on to make a higher high. If it does then the buy point will be at the next daily cycle low.

      Don’t worry about catching any more of the rally (assuming there is still another push higher). It’s going to occur too late in the daily cycle. Wait for the next DCL. Like I said that’s still 10-15 trading days away.

      Take a break for the next couple of weeks.

  29. Robert

    If USD bounces to 100.4 today I’m going to say it is forming a Big base and gold will be in for a big fall under 1200

  30. LiesandDamnLies

    I have been watching this site for 3-4 months. The good , bad and ugly posts.

    I am surprised with all this supposedly informed knowledge that no one has any comment about the Chinese gold markets going off line for a week ( its history over the last few years) and the fact that they are absent allows the big players to influence the direction both through SM , currency and gold manipulation.

    Beginning to question the actual quality of the posters.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually if you go back and check history China has had very little effect on the gold market.

      This is another one of those sayings that if it gets repeated enough everyone starts to believe it without ever checking to see if it’s true.

      Chinese New Year 2016 : Feb 8th
      gold closed Feb 5: $1173.50 , Feb 8: $1192.50 Feb 10th: $1208.20

      Chinese New Year 2015 : Feb 19th
      gold closed Feb 17: $1209.80 , Feb 19: $1207.90 Feb 20th: $1203.90

      Chinese New Year 2014 : Jan 31st
      gold closed Jan 29: $1267.70 , Jan 31: 1245.90, Feb 3rd: $1256.50

      1. LiesandDamnLies

        I’m a stats man I have checked. When they play they follow the overriding direction. They don’t play when the bear market is in on gold. Only the bull market. When they play they start early and follow thru later. Its not just the dates of the holidays. And they play the multipliers

        2016 Feb 2 NUGT 5.23 Feb 12 NUGT 11.37 8 trading days gain 117%
        2016 Feb 2 JNUG 2.97 Feb 12 JNUG 6.14 8 trading days gain 106%
        2014 Jan 27 NUGT 68.22 Feb 11 NUGT 93.82 11 trading days gain 37%
        2014 Jan 27 JNUG 100.85 Feb 11 JNUG 173.82 11 trading days gain 72%

        Why the bulls and not the bears is because most of the days traders don’t want to miss out on a rising market. As you know very few people play the short side so they can’t get boosted there.

        Forecast 2017
        2017 Jan25 NUGT 11.03 Feb 7th- Feb 9 NUGT 15.04 – 20.9
        2017 Jan25 JNUG 12.72 Feb 7th – Feb 9 JNUG 21.6 – 24.00

        Time will tell Gary lets see if you remember my prediction to call me a fool again. if I am right I will remind you.


  31. Goild

    I guess a real measure of the site is how much money and fun the participants get from reading the site.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well if you had purchased an SMT subscription at the bottom 4 weeks ago and followed my “real time” calls you would have made 84% over the last 4 weeks.

      Nobody ever does that though. Instead of buying at the bottom they are selling. Instead of joining the SMT right as it was about to become most profitable, they were canceling.

      These traders aren’t called dumb money for nothing.

      They are perpetually controlled by their emotions so they can never really take a contrarian trade. And by that I mean a real contrarian trade when everyone is against you. Not what you think is a contrarian trade from a 2 or 3 day pullback.

      A true contrarian trade should be almost impossible to pull the trigger. That’s what I try to do in the SMT.

  32. Robert

    Thats it gold will go down to at least 1180 if USD gets to my 100.4s. After that USD can go as high as 101.5 which would be awful for gold

    1. Gary Post author

      Wait a couple of weeks to see if gold recovers and makes a higher high.

      If it does then buy the next DCL.

      Take a break for a few weeks. No one should be buying below 1200. That is loss of a major support zone. That absolutely must be recovered before even thinking about going long.

    2. WallStreetJesus

      “There are always risks in battle. It’s a dangerous business. The trick is to take the right ones.’ [said Halt].
      ‘How do you know which are the right ones?’ Shigeru asked.
      Halt glanced at his two younger companions. They grinned and answered in chorus, ‘You wait and see if you win.”
      ― John Flanagan, The Emperor of Nihon-Ja

  33. Pedestrian

    Fast. Very fast.
    Gold has already hit my 1195 target price and exceeded it by two bucks. The day is going very well for me so far.

    1. Pedestrian

      Whoever it was who said they bailed out of platinum yesterday afternoon sure has good instincts.

      1. WallStreetJesus

        It was Don – his timing lately has been pretty good.

        I feel bad for all those folks buying Platinum over 1,000 yesterday.

  34. cdntrader

    The problem with you Gary is you change your mind on a dime and every time something in the market does not go the way you see it then you blame it on intervention. One minute you blast everyone for not holding onto gold through a huge drawdown..using triple leveraged etfs..going on and on about how all bull markets correct mistakes..we get that. But what if gold is not finished with its bull market..its still a possibility..not likely but its possible..if thats the case then you will be leading people to disaster.
    Now the market goes up one day and you are selling your metal positions and pushing gold going up into May. You are a slave to the daily ups and downs to the market often making rash reversals in thinking..you blame too many things on intervention and manipulation yet you still choose to invest in these so called manipulated markets. You always trumpet your good calls but never mention all the horrible ones you made..another financial charlatan.

  35. zkotpen


    “U lost me there zkot”

    Have you seen The Gold Rush?

    I can say the move is corrective in nature, and during such moves, gold and miners can become disjointed and out of phase at such times, for hours or even days. During impulse moves, it doesn’t matter so much, because of the strength of the move, and its near uniform directionality.

    But those are just words, as was my recommendation to watch The Gold Rush, hence it is likely heeded by few or none. Nothing I’m aware of quite captures the spirit of the miners. And given their bloody, corrupt history, Chaplin pulls it off comically. But you definitely enter into the feeling of trying to strike it rich in any aspect of gold mining. One of my top 10 favorite films of all time. That scene captures the FEELING of so many moves in miners. And no words — it’s a silent movie!

  36. zkotpen

    … and gold moves downward toward its 20 day SMA on the daily cycle, but upward on the intermediate cycle. Kinda like dangling on a cliff above an abyss. If you have a stake in that scenario, it’s pretty scary… your moves must be calculated with near pinpoint accuracy. Otherwise, the abyss awaits below.

    I was exhausted Tuesday — out of commission. Who knows if I’d have made the right choice? I see some people did — which is nice to see!

    1. Robert

      Ok zkot. Miners indeed catching up a little today. If gold closes today under 1200 the selling in miners should accelerate rest of the week!

  37. zkotpen

    I largely agree with Gary right about now, with one major exception:

    In gold’s 2016 yearly cycle decline, I see the following:

    ICL on October 9;
    ICH on November 9;
    ICL & YCL on December 15.

        1. Pedestrian

          Sorry Boz. I should have been more specific. I am using a five minute chart here and it did go up. We are on very different time frames.

    1. Dday

      Crashed through support at $1198 now testing it as resistance, its 1% down for the day ,bounced off lower support.

  38. bigglaze

    The USD is sinking, but people were actively selling gold still (as of recently). The USD was picking up the slack of the price drop from this. This rally is just a ‘stay of execution’. The last time the DOW almost hit 20k, it wasnt pretty. The markets are quite toppy. We’ll get a correction in the near future I think. Yes they moved the goal post, but it isn’t gone.

  39. zkotpen

    If you look at Gary’s successful long trade in gold from mid-December, the reason was, he used his methods to identify a time when gold’s daily, intermediate, and yearly cycles were all pointing in the same direction.

    That is NOT hanging on a cliff above an abyss… rather, it’s the next scene after that… if you survive & make it to that point!

    1. Dday

      Zkotpen, can you spell it out a bit more clearly, where do you think gold is heading, short, medium and long term….Thanks

  40. dboz

    The metals market is shaky after a huge multi month sell down and a 4 week upside run. So when gold drops $20 in a day from 1220 to 1192 of course it gives everyone emotional scares. They just lost their arse and started to get some back. I decided to hold all shares this AM. So far I like the action. The dollar is heading down for sure. It continues with low volume on up moves and big volume on down moves. My only pause is the bond market. If USDJPY gets below 112.50, I say the gold takes off rapidly. Yen and dollar are out of sync at the moment.

    1. Pedestrian

      Have a look at the daily silver chart Boz. This one is interesting to me for a couple reasons but primarily because its representative of the reason a lot of us came to this site. It demonstrates very easy to read cycle counts.

      For example, on the falling side of the chart since last July we can count out 7 major tops and 5 important lows. But will it keep going? At one time I felt certain it was heading to 14 dollars again (the January 2016 low) but on reflection you can see there is fairly major support coming in at 16 dollars. It’s maybe even too obvious for a final stopping zone.

      Anyway, this current decline in process could well be the last decline before a significant move higher begins. It may even be the point in time stock markets correct. Draw a line across the bottom of the two low points located at January 2016 and December 2017 bottoms and you can see the support line comes right in at 16 bucks very nicely.

      That spot would coincide very nicely with the natural rhythm of silvers rise and fall for the last 7 months. So if you are still holding and think you can stay tight for another 6% decline in silver you might be in luck as that’s where we may get our final bottom for the current bear.

  41. brianbreeze

    Hey Alexandru where is that SM scorch you have been calling for months now? Told you that you were full of hot air and nothing more.

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