70 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP

  1. lokum_

    Numerous headlines of Trump pushing for weak dollar. What a coincidence. Hm..wonder who predicted that?

  2. Happy

    You might be able to run it through “Audacity” (free app) to amplify the audio. But I have never tried to use it with a video, only lectures.

  3. cdntrader

    You know Gary I find you are showing a real lack of humility with your constant statements about bull markets correct all timing mistakes. Remember the jury is still out about gold being in a bull market..we came pretty damn close to the lows from last year and we have not bounced that much. If gold falls apart in the next few weeks we could make a serious run to the lows of 2015 and maybe even break them.
    The bottom line is that you were bullish on gold far too long last year and got pretty cocky with the triple leveraged bets which blew up in your face. Now that gold has bounced 80 dollars you are all cocky again..I hope you are right but you dont seem to learn from your previous mistakes.
    I will also be surprised if you actually post this as your pretty good at censoring any negative comments..

    1. Gary Post author

      IMO the jury is not still out. Gold is making higher highs and higher lows of a yearly cycle degree.

      Gold didn’t really come very close to the 2015 lows and miners weren’t even vaguely close.

      But you can keep sitting on the sidelines or trying to sell short if you want to. Like I said most people never make a dime off of a bull market.

      Yes we held the triple leveraged too long. I was trying for a short term trade and didn’t expect the cycle to top on day 2. We didn’t get stopped out though until the DCL was broken. Unfortunately it came in the premarket so we got trapped. But…

      We exited into the bounce in Oct. and then reentered at almost the exact bottom last month. So we are already well above our high point from August. The metal portfolio is now up over 150%.

      This is called real time trading. Something most of the trolls know nothing about. All they are really good at is Monday morning quarterbacking after the fact. Trading in hindsight is foolproof, but as far as I know, no one has ever found a way to make money at it.

      1. bginvestor

        How do you get 150%? Seems rather hard after having lost 70% from the top..

        Gotta count those closed portfolio’s as well ๐Ÿ˜‰

        1. DrJ314

          I sold out at a 50% loss from the top at the end of December and still made 250% in multiple accounts following Gary last year. I’m sick of the baseless allegations against the man – he’s never been anything but honest and forthright in my opinion in the multiple years I’ve been following him – even when he changes his opinion based on the latest evidence – which is exactly what I want when the conditions change.

    2. Mac

      Unfortunately selling newsletters and actually trading are 2 different things. If you want to sell newsletters its all about exposure and making flashy calls. With no money at risk you can just reset your returns whenever you like. People who actually trade however focus on protecting their downside first. There will always be risk in a position regardless of how you want to define the market but you mitigate that risk by sizing and scaling properly and most importantly knowing where to get the hell out. The greater the exposure, the greater the risk period.

      Of course, this will just be dismissed as more nonsense.

    3. ras

      Bull or bear? These are just labels. We have a trend in place. All that we can do is ride it until it lasts without getting stuck on labels.

      1. bigglaze

        Yes ras! Someone with some sense on here.. We’re not ‘gold bugs’. We’re currently bullish on gold.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    Pedestrian, I’ve been calling for USD lower.
    What I was saying earlier today was that European makts’ bringing USD higher would be proven wrong by American traders!!!
    This assertion enforced my bearish take on USD!

    and…THINGS ARE INDEED COMING MY WAY :):
    – USDJPY down from 113.4, level which I was touting earlier today as toppish
    – gold up and to move > 1220 today
    – miners are SURGIIIING deep and about to cancel all multiple bearish divergences with its oscillators.

      1. brianbreeze

        Hey Alexandru where is that SM scorch you have been calling for months now? Told you that you were full of hot air and nothing more.

  5. Don

    I have said lots of things to goad Gary that he could have deleted if he was so inclined and he has never removed any of my comments.

  6. Don

    I think it might be a good time for some downside action of the stock market. Adding to my beat up inverse ETFs .

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Where are you at on Silver? I think I remember you selling and then you bought back 1/3, not sure if I missed any posts after that.

      Your timing is pretty good. I have some Platinum but I am not selling. Probably regret it….

      1. Don

        I still have a fair bit of silver but not buying or selling at this time. Just lightening up on the platinum

  7. bill

    Not seeing much action in the dollar so this is typical chop…the chop is when most bail on emotion.

  8. Strike

    Gary,

    If this IC peaks in 1 – 2 months (in the 1st quarter of 2017) at 1320 – 1340 or so, and subsequently $GOLD will undergo a triangle consolidation for the remainder of 2017, that means this IC peak will be the high of the year (obviously). I presume anyone who believes that would not recommend holding through the last 9 months of 2017. And those would be shallow cycles to trade using cycle techniques. Sounds and appears like this board will morph towards short term trading during this 9 month period. Got another desk for me Ped? I’m a quant so I might earn my pay.

    All kidding aside, a nine month triangle consolidation profers a degree of stability that I personally don’t see in 2017. I would predict a breakout sooner, in one direction or the other.

    I know $GOLD was within $12 of its price 3.5 years ago. But more of the same becomes increasing unlikely IMHO.

    1. Pedestrian

      Sure thing Strike. Lots of desk space here if you can put up with all the cats. You probably didn’t hear the cursing at my house at the open though. My furry friends all ducked for cover. They may have heard some of those words before!

  9. Goild

    Don,

    Thanks, I sold my platinum shares too.
    Actually sold everything.
    We are going down for the week now.

      1. Gary Post author

        Wrong. I told people to stop out at 1275. It took a long time to get through that resistance zone. If it broke to the downside it would lead to larger losses.

        This is a classic example of a troll massaging the facts to fit his agenda.

  10. dboz

    Dollar not moving, USDJPY on monster move again, taking bonds with it. Not sure how it will sort out, but I don’t like those moving independent of the dollar. Could be the trigger for downside in gold.

  11. rupp

    Such an easy trade since dec and like i said in the thread on friday another double is coming for jnug etc

  12. bill

    Gary all the talk of building the pipeline with US made pipe and other manufacturing type start ups, its almost time to start looking at the CRB once again ๐Ÿ™‚

  13. Robert

    Gary, what is going on here….gold looks like its starting either a HCL or DCL however miners still at highs and not even pulling back one bit? Will they catch up eventually?

    1. Pedestrian

      Looks to me like GDXJ just got stopped out at the 100 day SMA, Robert. Miners should turn down from here with juniors leading.

        1. Pedestrian

          OMG Robert! You did read what I wrote. Good work bud. Hope it works out well for you. About GDX, we are above 23 now. Did you mean something else?

          1. Robert

            Yes I am wondering how low GDX will go on this reversal. Surely another day of selling will happen. I cant see it just reversing all of a sudden with everyone rushing to stocks

  14. Gary Post author

    I don’t like the intervention in the stock market. It’s going to abort the natural move down into the yearly cycle low, or prolong it.

    I’m taking profits on all metal positions until I see how this is going to play out.

    As long as traders are convinced there’s no risk in a protected stock market there won’t be a lot of incentive to buy or hold metals. So just as a precaution I’m going to the sidelines for now.

  15. jonsyl

    post option expiry slide with equities never arrived still feel best to sit and watch the dollar, vix and yen to any sight of reversal. No unfounded claims of a scorch worth listening to. Same holds for gold, lots of churn best left to day trade gamblers.

  16. Pedestrian

    Looks like I got my breakout in JDST, Bill. And JNUG, GDX, GDXJ etc are all topped out and in the process of a fall.

    I am pretty sure it will have been well worth the wait.
    This incidentally renders all those charts of yours moot if not completely pointless
    ———————
    For all others here, notice how closely correlated Yen and the 30 Year bond are today? That should send a shiver up the spine of those who think we are going to have a bold move forward in the economy and higher rates along with inflation to match.

    As Yen fell, the 30 fell in lockstep. So if you need a sneak peak into the future you really ought to study the Yen chart and consider for a minute what its telling us. I have a handy link here to save some time. You may just have a “holy shit” moment as you consider the impact of a Yen that finally hits bottom and reverses after more than 20 years of waiting.

    But I have another thought. It’s something that has been percolating in my head for awhile because Treasuries and gold are all so nicely correlated lately. What I see coming is quite a rally for precious metals but one that will coincide with a lenghty stock market decline.

    And why do I say that?

    Well here is the reason. When the Nikkei rises we see Yen fall and thus gold falls with it. When the Nikkei falls therefore gold goes up. But most major stock markets are also correlated with each other (in spite of the recent news hat correlations have broken down). So when the S&P rallies so does the Nikkei and that has been keeping downward pressure on gold for quite a few years now.

    Well anyway, getting to the point. I just want you guys to examine the long term Yen chart and keep the above correlations in mind. If it is indeed going to bottom this year (possibly in just a few months time) then bonds will be on the move again and we will certainly see negative rates in America eventually.

    Furthermore, i think I have identified the point at which stock markets in the US, Europe and Japan will finally roll over and go soft. When that Yen chart hits bottom its go-time because if the Yen rises it tells us implicitly that the Nikkei will fall.

    And if the Nikkei falls we might just infer that major stock markets will follow and the whole kettle of fish will be spilled together. Is that plausible? Well sure it is. Some of the relationships between assets are already many years old so this is an event that might almost seem choreographed if you follow long-term charts with interest.

    All of this does depend on the correlations holding together of course. Nothing is ever written in stone. And there are reasons why the Nikkei could fall independently. Another large earthquake for example or talk of war with China. But keep your eyes on this chart carefully for the next six months because when it hits bottom I think gold will get a very big lift higher.

    You clever chartists might even be able to put a date on the event for me!
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=m1

  17. Goild

    We may gap down tomorrow as miners are resilient to gold’s drop.
    SM may continue up for the week. But soon reality should hit the SM.

    1. Pedestrian

      I am looking for gold to break below the neckline (hourly chart) within the next couple trading days and fall below 1195. If we get there by Friday be ready for a Monday bounce in metals and miners.

  18. Gary Post author

    In our modern managed markets one has to be willing to flip 180 degrees at a moments notice.

    Until I see the stock market produce a normal corrective move it’s time to sit on my hands for awhile.

    1. ras

      Absolutely. As long as SVXY and qld are powering up, it is premature to talk about SM “scorch”. Let the price do its dance.

    2. Steffmeister

      hahaha guess what Gary, winter solstice still works for a Gold low. It has been like that for thousands of years. HFT computers, internet and Google doesn’t matter ๐Ÿ™‚ I rely on mother natures knowledge.

      Real knowledge is what matters.

      A final hurrah for Stox here ? Time is ticking folks, like I wrote a couple of days ago, big changes are coming in many asset classes. A correction in Gold 1170-1150? or do we bounce here ?

  19. Don

    There seems to be a lot of interest the energy sector. Markets making new highs on the backs of energy stocks is a sign we are close a top. Biotechs are hurting.

      1. Pedestrian

        LABU is building a nearly perfect symmetrical triangle that I think is going to be a buy in a few days. Kind of tells me stock markets are on their way up all round if that happens. And bullish stocks means its a bear for precious metals. Again.

          1. Pedestrian

            Could be. I just go one day at a time. Partly because I can’t really concentrate on too many things at the same time. Looks like I am six for six on my recent trades though. So not a complete dope. My wife will probably disagree. Good thing she doesn’t know where I post!

  20. Robert

    So guys miners finished with a strong bounce. We should still see lower here is 1200 possible by Friday?

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