39 thoughts on “SHORT TERM UPDATE ON MINERS

  1. ras

    PM miners are likely to slosh around for a while and then head south. One can also reach the opposite conclusion through cherry picking derived indicators selectively. Price is king. Let us see what it does, one day at a time.

  2. zkotpen

    nonew,

    Thanks for your comment. “Trading in the Zone” is about breaking the analysis addiction. If you’ve got an edge, your objective is to play it to the max, and not worry about a bunch of crap. Markets move slowly, so traders get bored and talk about lots of irrelevant things, trying to logick relevance into them.

    Insights? My edge is a combo of math and science, so out the window are all the contrived drivel that people talk about, as well as concocted formulas. The king of the garbage heap is that guy, Mack Dee (MACD). It’s the Achilles Heel of technical analysis, as it is pure crunching, and no science. I’m sure it has predictive value as an empirical tool, but it’s not science.

    A strange thing makes me uniquely qualified for this stuff. I joined Team Econ at the beginning of my 3rd (junior) year at Uni. The only underclass requirements at U of Maryland — a perennial top 25 Econ dept in USN&WR’s rankings, btw — were the only two classes at that level: Principles of Micro & Macro. MD’s Econ dept put a HUGE premium on students with a strong math and natural science bckgrd. And not just math, but calculus. In my first two years at Uni, I had 3 semesters of Calculus, incl Diff EQ, as well as 2 yrs of Chemistry and 3 semesters of Calc-based Physics. People can talk about fractals all they want, but without Calculus — and especially Diff EQ or without some other method, such as advanced transcendental meditation, they are limited in their ability to conceive the infinitessimally small, and the infinitely large. Thus, when an internet guru talks about “fractals” and I talk about “fractals”, we are talking about two very different things.

    Even within Econ, I still chose to take calc-based STAT 400 — NOT “Econ Stats”, because of the greater emphasis on calculus of the former. Later, that class that Alex reminds me of, because of his disdain for math, coupled with the fact that my prof was from Romania — “Quantitative Methods in Economics”, or “Econometrics”, for short. We crunched a LOT of stats & models in that class, but every time, the Romanian Professor brought it back to the fundamental assessment: Does that calculation or proof we just spent all that time & energy on beat a coin toss?

    I’ve long since forgotten all the formulas, but retained the key way of thinking: How does your model compare (MATHEMATICALLY, not in your mental concoctions!!!) with a coin toss?

    My old housemate & best friend from Uni, a PhD candidate in Psychology, drew my attention to the importance of statistics in all social sciences. He also gave me a copy of, “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions,” by Kuhn, to read, in order to better understand the limits, flaws, and challenges of science in general, and the special case of the social sciences.

    After 2 decades in denial of my degree in a “soft science” field, I began to warm up to Economics. My unusual background and history cause me to question almost everything in life, so it’s a no-brainer for me to put the anti-scientific, downright medieval, market forecasting under scrutiny, but not as critic. After all, some stuff does stand up to the Econometrics question.

    Rather, I just begin with what has been ingrained in my mind since 9th grade Earth Science: Scientific Method. Step 1 is define the problem. That is ambiguity in market patterns, what Gary points out as “there’s always one or more alternative wave counts, and you don’t know which is correct until after the fact.” Step 2 is formulate an hypothesis — which, I believe, most of my social science colleagues routinely ignore (just look at all of the empirical studies that have won the Nobel Prize for Econ — no hypothesis there, just collect data & crunch).

    And that, much to the delight of most on this blog, is where I cease to divulge. Even Gary saves his best stuff for his premium site.

  3. zkotpen

    nonew

    PS: POSSIBLE triangle would have wave A complete at 1375 for gold, from July, 2016. Or even a slower, more grinding type of triangle, in which wave A is not complete.

    That’s why I maintain that any old turkey position is extremely risky over the next few years, at least until the multi-year bear market rally shows its true intentions…

    … MATHEMATICALLY!!!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Hello, Zkot! Nice reading your post, as always!
      I have no disdain for Maths, just for Trigo segment. As a matter of fact my favorite part of Maths has been Calculus too and the 2nd was Geometry (even though related to Trig; just as one likes yellow and yet dislikes light orange).

      PS: and DAX Index does go lower providing also a Swing High.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      …. we have al least 3 points that give you and I collinearity ๐Ÿ™‚
      for instance my wife and I have set up a small chalet some 50km from our home in Bucharest, just 300 meters away from a large forest and lake (I am still not accustomed to Anglo-Saxon measure units; I only know that one inch is some 2.5cm and one acre 45% of a hectare ๐Ÿ™‚ ) where we plan to plant our own food, set up a forest and have our own … bee hives – black, forest honey is the most nutritious on earth.

  4. Don

    Gary’s on the sidelines and pretty much everyone else is too. Not me, I have been loading up on silver and platinum and I am going to choke on it if the PMs go down but I am not too worried.

  5. Steffmeister

    I am in JNUG since 19th/20th Dec. When you know what you are doing, when you know you are right sit tight ๐Ÿ™‚

    I guess Pedestrians call for JDST wasn’t a very bright one … neither Gary’s flip flopping …

    and yes I may eat my words later on but thats part of the game haha.

    BTW, my analysis is purely based on mother natures math !!!

    1. Pedestrian

      I am not wrong yet smart guy. This is just a waiting game right now and I will reenter that trade today if I get the reversal I am looking for. JDST is sitting on its support line as we speak. It needs to bounce here to keep a pattern intact. If it fails then I won’t buy it. Simple as that buddy boy.

      1. Steffmeister

        You’ve been wrong since you showed up. Follow my calls and be happier and richer too ๐Ÿ™‚ skip emotions and stay with fundamental math like mine.

        Ok I will skip the bragging from now on … and try to stay low key like a responsible and succesful trader.

        1. Pedestrian

          LOL!

          Gold crashed more than 200 dollars since election night and you were long the whole way down and loaded up on leveraged products. And now you want to give advice? Try that on your girlfriend. Maybe she will be more receptive to the crazy talk.

          1. Steffmeister

            Yes I have a core position in precious miners, but it’s impossible miss major turns with the contact I have with a highly skilled analyst. I showed the BEAR trendline here 4-5months ago and Gary used it and created a new thread the next hour, so wrong again Ped.

    2. Gary Post author

      Heck we made 35% in just a couple of days. I don’t think anyone’s upset about that. And as of this morning I think we have confirmation that the intermediate rally is now on sound footing.

  6. Goild

    Good morning
    I will be missing the action today as I am waiting for a flight.
    You may consider “the way of the turtle” as one of the best books on trading.
    Gold this morning looks good.
    I would be very careful with jdst as if at all we have a little bounce it is still not done. The manipulator would make sure to profit the most by hooking great the bulls.
    “Sitting quietly” is the thing for us gold bugs. The upside potentials is fantastic while the downside is picayune.
    Good trading to all.

    “We were told to not miss a trend”

  7. Goild

    Steff,

    Let us think ahead. How high do you think the miners will go and how the retracements will take place in 2017?

    1. Steffmeister

      I am a beginner at this math so a learning curve is involved. I am not looking any further than the next turn. I posted a timeline a week ago about when we will see a top. I am not going to repeat my calls.

      Gary is wrong about the baby bull. That decision has not been made yet. Hopefully it will be decided this year. Looking at global debt I am not that optimistic … but hey if we get QE4-5-6-7-8 …

      If we are in a A-B-C bearish pattern A-up-complete B-down hopefully complete C–final up, I wiant to see atleast a repetition of wave A and if A=C that means 1000% in JNUG. A double top at 1380 is also in the cards of course. Measure your favorite minersindex from bottom Jan 2016 to top July/aug 2016 and add it to the current low.

  8. ARends

    ZKOTPEN, You remind me of when I did my MBA and economics professor told me joke with a great truth in it : What is an Economist? Well the economist predicts what will happen with figures and statistics in that year and in the end of the year he can explain in great detail why all his predictions did not happen in that year. ( That is why Warren Buffet said : The first person he fires in a company is the economist)

    Now looking at Gold some great technical tools I acquired and back testing which really impressed me. GDX I would like to confirm bullish: The weekly show a bullish reversal pattern , three inside up. It’s also bouncing of a resistance level from channel it broke. http://invst.ly/30ae-. XAU indication still bullish on daily https://www.tradingview.com/x/BadHax7s/ with possible resistance but candles show yellow has strength but could bounce at 1170 for retrace as weekly has not given me a turn. It could come today if we have more upward strenght but candles are blue with downward momentum on weekly. https://www.tradingview.com/x/C3tI3HEj/. we know price is king while Heikin Ashi has one green bar on weekly. Williams indicate green while MACD has not crossed the red trend down trend. Its still a toss on the weekly. So I see the same in GLD

    Presently I will sell my jnug if I do not get the weekly turn with a daily reversal at the 1170 resistance and pick it up as we might just see a dubble bottom in my eyes which I will see what story these technical tools will teel on the hourly and daily monitor in next few days and scalp the hopefully might just be a pullback of this bullish bounce before we go up. I would hate a lower low and keep it on a short leach. I will sell at 1154 half and half at 1140. The rest would keep if we make a fast dubble bottom.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    What is Statistics?
    It is some other kind of bikini for ladies: it unravels most of the problem while hiding the essential.

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    $NATGAS the first risk-on asset to byte the dust: it is in proven Intermediary Cycle decline and signals its Yearly Cycle decline too by charting a monthly Swing High.

  11. Alexandru Popovici

    SPX up to 2273 this week would be great news in order to exhaust the market and to confirm we are early in a new daily cycle (DCL last week) – hence plenty of time for SPX to fall below 2080 through late February.

  12. bill

    Once again we see the usual suspects or the perpetual short callers taking the. Noobs down the drain with them… nice calls shorts… not. But this is how the swamp gets drained loss of credibility…. now they will go into hiding like the moles they are.

    1. Dday

      Short has been the trade since last summer, dust, short pm etf. If it is time to go long then great i’ll go long. But i’ll wait for confirmation, two days doesn’t equate to a new bull market. The idea which you seem to be suggesting is that you have to either be in the bull camp or bear…Your loss…

  13. Gary Post author

    Metals look good this morning even as the stock futures are higher. Miners could break through the 200 DMA today.

  14. zkotpen

    ARends,

    If I live long enough, I will make it my business to kick most Biz majors out of Econ classes, as they do not contribute to any scientific work whatsoever. On the contrary, by their sheer numbers, they inhibit such work, much to the chagrin of the human race as a whole. The business student or person, in all their pragmatism, distracts from our business at hand, which is supposed to be scientific inquiry.

    Of course, once the biz person is able to take any scientific discovery or research for granted, he/she can’t wait to profit from it.

  15. zkotpen

    ARends,

    And by the way, your Econ prof and I have some things in common, but kindly ask him/her if he/she has any sort of natural science and calculus background. I doubt it.

    Then read Kuhn. Or, if you can’t read Kuhn, I’m sure you were required to read “The Goal” for your MBA. Perhaps you could actually read the book, rather than just use it to balance out that short table leg…

    1. vin

      Gary as always you are right. Most of the traders don’t make money and they buy when they should not. I am in 100% agreement with you. Now that I have taken this risk, please wish me luck.

  16. ARends

    zkotpen…hahaha. I surely was not trying to insult you! My professor at that time was an economist himself. It is really not what you study but how you wear the cloak. So mate don’t take that so personally…you will burst a vain. It was Warren Buffet that felt an economist is useless and is the first person he fires as a use less expense, but being so successful I rather take his point after possible 85 years experience. So as soon as you can make a contribution..sorry, you still need to prove yourself being still a student. Just remember you study what other thought out with own experience and wrote a book about it that other decided was good for you to reflect on. Good luck with your studies and hope it will help your investments. After having looked at many economist predictions for the coutry they differ like the bull and bears. The best calculated toss of a coin of your opinion as the bussiness minds.

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