84 thoughts on “THE DOLLAR IS HEADED DOWN”

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    short SPX @ 2267

    Russell is toast, it’s leading the decline, just as the COT report has revealed.

      1. bill

        Alex is one of those ” If you say it enough people start to believe it ” its an agenda. Best to ignore and ALWAYS do the opposite of whatever Alex says.

    2. Vlad

      Lol Alex. You have been saying scorch for over 2 months now. Like many have stated, it will eventually happen. However, timing is everything – and your timing is horrid.

      1. brianbreeze

        But Alex has a huge ego so even being constantly wrong won’t stop him from making the same call daily.

      1. Vlad

        Not even sure why he shows up here. He runs a site called “john galt atlantis” and he makes the same chicken little posts all day long “the sky is falling”. The site is full of peace, love, and prosperity fruit loops thinking they are the next hevan’s gate and are waiting for their UFO to arrive and take them off to a better place. The UFO can’t get here fast enough.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Utilities are close to break out & to start trending big!
    They signaled The Scorch on NOV15, now they will lead all other stocks until early March.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Consumer Staples to b/o too!

      $RUT at one end while $UTIL + XLP stand together at the other of Lady Market’s favour.

      THE SCOOORCH!

      1. Don

        You just keep calling for a “scorch” and it will eventually come. That method of ‘prediction’ works very well for Gary.

        1. brianbreeze

          Don agreed. Gary was calling the bottom of gold for months as it kept going down so eventually everyone is right if they keep at it long enough.

  3. Don

    I hope this call for the dollar to fall isn’t going to be like the “oil might be starting the move down” call you made a week ago (when oil was $3 lower than today).

    1. Gary Post author

      Both oil and energy stocks are starting to trend down. Both have completed weekly swing highs. As far as I can see that call was right on.

      2. HomerJ

        How can it be “RIGHT ON”??? Come on Gary, your forecast was for OIL TO GO DOWN. Now I don’t have a University degree, but when I see the PRICE as being HIGHER than when you called for LOWER, even my high-school math skills kick in. For fuck’s sake dude, when you are not right, say it so.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    Giving how things have unfolded, the initial scenario regains much larger credit: USX found its DCL early on day 15 on DEC30 (just as USDJPY pair) and further toped on day 1 of the current daily cycle.

    Thus, USD would have plenty of time to fall abreast stocks (SPX below 2080).

  6. bigglaze

    Trump made a comment about the dollar and that seems to be the catalyst. People might soon have buyer’s remorse for Trump himself.

    Seems to be a case of buy the rumour. Sell the news.

  7. ted

    I vote Alex worse market timer of the past 3 months I’ve seen.

    And by the way, the market is coiling for another lift off! The next one will convert all the remaining bears to bulls.

    This market won’t go down. And Gary is right. Stop shorting. Trust me.

    1. brianbreeze

      Alex is a clown. He is a great contrarian indicator. He talks with great conviction and is almost always wrong as are all others who talk with great conviction about the stock market or any other asset.

  8. jonsyl

    Trump calls for lower dollar which should propel gold into stratosphere, yet we get a tepid rise. Yen and dollar finally moving into my above 84 yen and below 101 dxy dollar levels which is reassuring, however the stubborn fact that vix can’t get going above 14 is a remaining negative for market downside.
    We’ll see how the day ends, but with Trump’s declaration on dollar this morning I am not rejoicing for gold bulls and market bears just yet. Alex’s enthusiasm for his repeated scorch calls doesn’t help either.

      1. jonsyl

        agree with Friday power move expectation including my own for some time now considering option expiry and inauguration, however just so much company on that viewpoint right now makes me nervous. Not long to find out.

  9. jonsyl

    Miners getting progressively weaker as day goes on, right now looks more like a rollover than the beginning of a new thrust upward in the face for a call of lower dollar and total Trump bedlum. If we get a reversal by the end of day to downside then I will duck.

  10. ARends

    The move higher in miners was postponed by two trading days, and we should see fresh cycle highs today. Closing below the $23.00 level in GDX will imply a cycle top

    2. brianbreeze

      WallStreetJesus you sound like another know nothing windbag. How is that miner and gold roller over going?
      Good luck with that big red candle of yours tomorrow.

      1. WallStreetJesus

        If you really want to know what happens to gold at 1225.

        The rumor is it will turn into a Bitcoin at that level.

          1. Goild

            brianbreeze,

            I mean that on the third day after the election there is a big long red candle followed by several small candles at the level of $1225. So it looks a natural place to make a pause, reverse, or to correct for the election day move.

  14. Surf City

    I agree the USD is due for an Intermediate correction into and ICL. In the near term, however, the USD is due for a near term DCL. Out of its DCL, I expect the next Daily Cycle to top quickly and roll over into its next Intermediate Cycle Low.

    On GDX, I like the price action on day 17 of this first Trading Cycle out of the Yearly Cycle Low in December.

    https://surfcity.co/2017/01/17/gold-and-gdx-cycle-update/

    1. Vlad

      This sounds about right. Likesmoneycycletrading is expecting the same; in the timing band for a daily cycle low and then we get a failed cycle, with a move into an ICL. I would guestimate with all the EW charts I have seen that gold finds a bottom at the start of Feb and blasts off from there.

  15. ARends

    Another confirmation
    It would take a massive selloff to make these options profitable, Bier said.

    Call options represent bets that the level or price of a given asset or index will rise during a given time—in this case, the period between Friday and Feb. 15, when these options expire.

    Investors frequently use VIX futures and options as a hedge against volatility. That way, if stocks tank, they can offset some of those losses with the profits from their options trades.

    “Even in the current low volatility environment, we’ve seen a lot of people still looking at the VIX as a hedge,” Bier said.

    Since the beginning of the year, stock-market volatility has been relatively subdued despite increasing uncertainty surrounding the future direction of fiscal and monetary policy in the U.S. The Daily Shot, a popular market newsletter, illustrates this divergence in the chart
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-bracing-for-a-massive-stock-market-selloff-2017-01-13?link=MW_popula

  17. RichardRussell

    Vlad
    January 17, 2017 at 8:02 am
    “Not even sure why he shows up here. He runs a site called “john galt atlantis” and he makes the same chicken little posts all day long “the sky is falling”. The site is full of peace, love, and prosperity fruit loops thinking they are the next hevan’s gate and are waiting for their UFO to arrive and take them off to a better place. The UFO can’t get here fast enough.”
    For the Record, Alexandru Popovici is not Alex from Atlantis, so please ignore the moronic post above from Vlad.

  18. zbigkid

    If Trump wants the dollar weak, it’s going to sell off. If Trump wants US car makers to make more cars here, they are going to make more cars here. If Trump wants Carrier to keep jobs here, instead of sending them to Mexico, Carrier will keep jobs here.

    Whatever Trump wants, Trump gets. The sooner people realize that, and stop fighting the guy, the better off they will be. At least a half dozen of his executive staff positions have been filled by people who are very pro-gold. The guy may be raw and untethered in his Tweets, but he knows EXACTLY what he is doing. In hard negotiations, whether its in business or politics, you learn to throw your opponent completely off balance. I would never attempt to underestimate what he will accomplish, and if at his core he is pro-gold, he’s probably a fairly savvy business man, and world leader. So many hundreds of politicians and pundits have excorciated this guy, saying he was going to implode dozens of times before this. To their chagrin, he actually just keeps getting stronger, and anyone who tries to take him out on Twitter, usually ends up in the dust bin of also ran blow hards.

    1. brianbreeze

      zbigkid it could all be short term that Trump gets what he wants. Longer term the story may be very different.

    2. vin

      zbigkid,
      Absolutely!
      But, there is one exception. And, that is CHINA. China has defied him at every step. And, I think they (China) have just started. Even Russia does not seem to support him against China.

      And, if he can’t control China, he is in serious trouble. What do you think is the main cause of American decline?

      I truly hope he succeeds but I have serious doubts. China is very powerful now, in particular economically.

  19. Pedestrian

    So I sold JNUG for a respectable gain. Maybe too early but my indicator rules so I follow it. I really hate these 3X ETF’s and don’t trust them enough to hold for too long if it can be avoided. Not anymore anyway. They can reverse so fast your head spins and then later its always regret you didn’t take the gain and play another day. Let’s see how she goes tomorrow.

    1. bginvestor

      That’s the problem w/ 3X, to fully get the most profit, one needs to be in the market as long as possible.. I have suffered the same issue..

  20. victor

    RichardRussell
    “For the Record, Alexandru Popovici is not Alex from Atlantis, so please ignore the moronic post above from Vlad. ”
    So far I found only his moronic love for putin …, for sure he put this picture over his bed, in a car or so…

  21. Alexandru Popovici

    Thank you, Richard Russell.
    Indeed, Victor.
    I am running no sites of any sort. I am just a guy – a guy who disents any form of absolutism, who particularly hates Russian politicians’ attitude and who, on a mundane note, tomorrow is going skiing.
    May Trump prove Putin’ greatest disappointment!
    Good luck!

  22. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, I am shorting the market because I think it is not materially rigged, there is no PPT acting except in bear stock markets.
    Cheers, mate!

    PS: I particularly think the 3 year cycle low was in May and that we are in a terrible USD bull, as it is peculiar to a K-Spring, just undergoing a temporary correction.

    1. bginvestor

      they can’t prop up the markets for ever.. SPX is very high STD above MA, it will go DOWN…

      Based on price action, might be a good shorting opportunity right now.. very clear resistance, and MUCHO down side potential..

  23. jonsyl

    dollar and yen are cooperating, if only the vix would have a decent pop to signal some fear. Trump and goldman wall streeters still have most convinced of great things.

  24. victor

    Lucky Alex…, Happy skiing, hopefully it’s a cross-country sking , I low running on it, never forget how we run over the huge frozen lake in Quebec to buy pack of beer…

  26. brianbreeze

    I hope people realize that Trump is an imbecile. He says he wants a much strong US economy and also says the USD is too strong. If you have a strong economy it means you will have a strong dollar. You cannot have a strong economy and a weak dollar. He should take an econ 101 course to learn the basic principles before he starts spouting off nonsense. This clown is an imbecile on so many levels…

    1. bill

      Obviously your as dumb as a stump. And it’s obvious you have no clue how finance and or currency’s work . It’s amazing what a disgrace your generation is I say this cause you talk like a 20 something dope.

      1. brianbreeze

        So explain to me Bill how the US will have a very strong economy and weak dollar. I am all ears.

      2. brianbreeze

        Bill you spell it “you’re” not “your”. Talk about a dope who cannot even spell simple words. That is one great American education you got there buddy. Obviously a Trump voter…

      1. HomerJ

        The Emperor actually has is own clothing line, and it’s NOT made in USA. So suck on that Americans….

  28. ras

    $gold up for week 4 and us$ vice versa. us$ headed to 97? $gold headed to 1260 plus? Interesting days ahead.

    1. Pedestrian

      I don’t know about that. After reviewing I will prepare to go short late today or early tomorrow on Inauguration day. It now appears to me gold has topped on an interim basis and we will indeed see a pullback with another opportunity to get long in early February. As always, we are playing by ear so my short is conditional upon action today through Friday. All things being equal though we are now at a corrective peak that presents a downside opportunity.

      About the dollar. No Gary, the dollar is not going to fall far from the apple tree. Trend is up for all of 2017 and part of 2018. All we are seeing here is a minor and necessary pullback to burn off the excess bullishness on USD. It will be a chance to buy more.

      1. rupp

        Consolidation sure, pullback maybe, but I feel gold is headed to 1269 fairly soon and we’ll see from there

    1. ARends

      I don’t think it will be a big retrace either..but let’s see with this negativity in perception for bull contrarian for gold works better than technicals as we have seen with volume loaded in miners at the bottom is possibly best indicators.

  31. ARends

    If no one has noticed we may huge problem for Trump inauguration as many talk about the plan of NOT peaceful riots.. some also expect to a point marshall law as last extreme push by Democrats. We might just see another spike in GOLD if this turns ugly with Democrats pushing very hard with elite (George Soros and .. with estimate of a Billion spent on Hillery so far) for chaos. Main media will push the idea further as they have done past year against Trump.

    ‘A Violent Inauguration? A Call For Peace On Inauguration Day

    Now that all attempts to delegitimize President Elect Trump to this point including failed recounts, the constant drum beating about popular vote victory, intimidation, bullying and desperate pleas to the Electoral college and the attempt at cold War 2.0 have failed, will inauguration day be the last stand? Now even millionaire Catholic socialist filmmaker Michael Moore is leveraging a Trump presidency to catapult himself back into relevance while his home state is already feeling the benefits of the Trump effect.

    Moore has already shown up to Trump tower with his trademark (and tired) Roger and Me shtick and he is a leading voice in calling for civil disobedience protests, a whole hundred days of them, starting on inauguration day. While this is probably a key way to gather material for his next film about how awful America is, he left out a key word in his call to action – peaceful.’

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/violent-inauguration-call-peace-inauguration-day

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