It never fails. 90% of traders buy at tops and sell at bottoms. The time to buy is when no one wants it. The time to sell is when everyone can’t get enough.

Without fail the SMT sees the biggest inflow of new subscribers after we’ve already made big gains. Never at the bottoms when we are getting into positions, and taking drawdows while we wait for the trend to reverse.

Maybe just once people will try something different this time. I doubt it though. Human nature never changes, and that’s why most people never make any money in the markets.

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  1. zkotpen

    I agree with Gary!

    Bias (and self-sabotage is a form of bias) keeps people from making money in markets!

  2. zkotpen


    Gotta love that Trig, buddy!

    So many markets consolidate in triangles. I’ve even come up with a guideline:

    All market consolidations are triangles.

    Not to be taken literally, rather, any sideways consolidation will do what a triangle does. I just believe the triangle pattern achieves that result the most efficiently.

    1. Gary Post author

      Miners may form a triangle flag here to consolidate the initial burst off the bottom 🙂

  3. jonsyl

    last hurrah for equities, looking like biotech, drug stocks may provide last lift as laggards finally have their day. everyone watching gold however at the expense of everything else. Dollar still shows little sign of collapse, only vix headed to testing former lows.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well the biggest and fastest gains tend to occur in the metals sector when they come out of cycle lows.

      1. Spanky

        Sorry, there is no excuse for buying full positions in 3x ETFs into overbought short term conditions. That is just extremely poor risk management. You could get extremely lucky and avoid a sizeable drawdown and decay, but there is a very good chance you will have to suffer through a drawdown and decay (and stress) as short term overbought conditions are worked off.

        1. Gary Post author

          We got a pullback on Friday. Did you use it to buy?

          If not then you clearly can’t buy into pullbacks so what’s the point of waiting for one?

          We got in at almost the exact bottom. We have a very large cushion of profit to ride out any short term wiggles.

  4. WallStreetJesus

    There are many references stating 90% of the traders lose money. Where is all this money going?

    Trend traders suffer drawdowns, there is no getting around it.

    In 2,000 years of investing the best two strategies for making money are:

    1) Flip a coin
    2) Find and fade someone that is consistently wrong

    1. Gary Post author

      No one is consistently wrong.

      Actually the best strategy would be to find someone that has been wrong for a while and start betting with them. Fade the person that has been right for an extended period.

      Like I said: human nature never changes.

  5. Gary Post author

    Those that remain in denial about manipulation of the stock market will just keep losing money trying to sell short.

    We just got a half intermediate cycle low that only lasted two days. Amazing!

          1. Robert

            Yes I am Gary. Worked up some spare cash and bought unleveraged Miners since im still stuck in NUGT at higher to reduce risk. I think we will get at least 1200 gold

  6. bginvestor

    miner’s have not (yet) broken out of the summer down trend line.. currently testing today..

    It will either break thru, bounce down, or consolidate.. up to you what the risk/reward is for these scenarios..

  7. Pedestrian

    I think this bullishness is misplaced. To my eyes a drop is coming in both metals and miners and it could be quite sharp. But buy to your hearts content. Will any of you be contrite and apologetic for your brash overconfidence once proven wrong? How about you Bill with your call that Nugt will see 9 dollars today? Pretty doubtful friend.

    1. bill

      Days not over Mr my eyes, you’ve been wrong now for days, will you admit it? course not your to busy patting yourself on the back, for god knows what im not sure yet. Follow this shill at your own peril.

  8. dboz

    I agree. No confirmed breakout yet but it’s looking close. Could just be bouncing off trend line resistance. They are all sitting right up against them. Still holding all my miners. Out of JNUG and NUGT for now. Waiting to buy but 1-2 more days may be needed. Not going to get too excited yet but I like how it’s looking. Caught the 3x ETFs off the bottom. Sold a little too early as I got shook out since I am not used to those but locked some big gains. Time will tell. Gold bouncing right off the fib resistance also. No breakout yet. Just range trading? GDXJ looks weak today IMO. DUST looking like a buy? SO, in wait mode.

  9. jonsyl

    vix collapsing, no fear in here, can go on for a bit longer, rotation into laggards like biotech happening and pushing equities higher. Then watchout, possibly with option expiry. Gold dead in the water with too many looking to bail on next rally

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