125 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – $GOLD

    1. Gary Post author

      If you quit worrying about trying to time a perfect entry there is still lots of upside potential between Friday’s close and 1300+ ($20+ in silver).

      Just buy and hang on. As long as you don’t sell into a correction the trend still has further to go, maybe a lot further. You are going to risk missing the rest of the rally because you are afraid of a short term drawdown that won’t last more than 4-6 days anyway.

      I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen traders do this over the last 20 years. They lose sight of the big picture because they become focused on the short term.

      All timing mistakes get corrected in a bull market.

    2. WallStreetJesus

      I am in the same boat is your Robert waiting for a pullback.

      You know what would happen if we buy right now…..the big plunge down we have been waiting for. Multiple big red candle days down as soon as we are long.

    1. Robert

      Good play! The only thing that gives me hope of a further drop is the GDX options market. Overall more calls than puts were traded but alot of calls were at bid or below while most of the puts were at ask or higher. I also worked out the dollar amount and it seems more cash went into put buying trades than calls. Also the biggest put options trade were very aggressive. They all are set to expire this week or next and plus they are out of the money. That is aggressive. Those players will either ma le big bucks or will lose everything.

      Also there was a huge Newmont put trade. We will see, gold will lets us know by Tuesday/Wednesday if it is on to 1300 next!

      1. Surf City

        Short term we may see some volatility, but I agree with Gary that a new Intermediate cycle should allow price to move high enough to break the red down trend in his chart.

        Nothing in markets is certain, including cycle trend line breaks. On a new IC, however, that is the cycle norm.

  1. crow

    Robert, there is something else that might give you hope. Take a look at the volume in JDST last week. If a huge volume in JNUG is a signal of a bottom in precious metals (smart money positioning), as Gary has noted at times, then presumably there is a similar significance to such a huge volume in JDST.

      1. Pedestrian

        Sheep to the slaughter. Not that I really care. Guys like you deserve it. But the indicator is already triggered Bangjang and now its just a matter of time. Not much time either by my estimate. But don’t hold me to the clock too closely. This isn’t slope surgery after all.

        1. dboz

          Ped, it is surely possible, no doubt. This week will probably give us the answer. Bull or bear counter trend. Gary has gone over the case for a bull on several posts. Silver is just too bullish right now. Unless we have a silver pullback, I don’t see the bear case. Silver made a 50 cent reversal on Friday. You can’t deny that is impressive and very bullish. I believe gold will now follow along and test 1250. Silver over 18 is pretty straight up to 19. Gold over 1250 opens up 1300+. There will be a pullback after touching the highs from last year. Like Gary is showing here, just ride it up. No where near overly bought or bullish yet. You are confusing wants with doings. You want it to go down but price is doing something else. I don’t see much chance at all to drop back to a December lows at this point but anything is possible.

          1. dboz

            We have yet to see a monster up day for gold for some time now. This week could see that up move and force a squeeze. Many miners still have a lot of shorts. Earnings are also starting to roll out.

          2. Pedestrian

            Want and need don’t compute, Boss. I follow my own indicator (and yes, Bangjang, it is proprietary) one step at a time and its proven itself well enough over time that I have good confidence its giving me the right answers. What it does lack however is a means to estimate timing with the accuracy I would like although its excellent at identifying directional turns. So its just up to me to be patient and let the chart work itself through. I can afford to wait and miss a little upside in the process. Surprises are to the downside in bear markets and we are still in one.

        2. bill

          The irony here is you are the biggest sheep in the forum, you made a few good calls and since then every one your made as been wrong lol your to busy blowing your own horn, then you talk smack … funny you tout your wins but never ever have I seen your mention your losses. I know I know you never have losses lol

          1. Pedestrian

            You are entirely anonymous. But not brave enough to make a gold call on a public forum. How about it big guy? Take a risk. And move out of Mom’s basement while you are at it.

  2. crow

    Gary, if the intermediate cycle still has 5-10 more weeks, then there is plenty of time for another daily cycle. We haven’t yet had a proper daily cycle low, according to your criteria. Now would be a good time to expect one. We have reached resistance in both gold and the miners. GDX has had a run of eight weeks up in a row (as I pointed out in another posting), which suggests that at least some consolidation is needed. Furthermore, the volume in JDST last week suggests to me that the “smart money” is positioning for some downside in the miners, at least in the short term. There is option expiry for the shares next week, which tends to cause some countertrend moves at times. Even for those who are not day traders but try to ride the cycles profitably, I don’t think it hurts to lighten up on long positions a bit when the market starts to look overbought and in need of a rest. As for Friday’s action, who knows what influences the market on a single given day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more downside next week.

  3. ARends

    Gold predict say, Prices tested the 10-day EMA and support near $1,220. However, Silver and Gold have begun to diverge, and if gold can’t exceed its $1,246.60 high, a 1-3 week correction will ensue.

  4. Gary Post author

    Folks Ped is trying to catch a counter trend move in a strongly trending market. That’s always a dangerous strategy.

    The easy money is made buying corrections in line with the larger trend.

    This is another reason I keep warning people not to short the stock market. But people keep doing it and losing more and more money.

    Until sentiment reaches bullish extremes the money making strategy will be to continue holding long trades and buying dips.

    If you want to lose money one of the most efficient and quickest strategies ever developed to do it is to fight a strongly trending market.

    1. Pedestrian

      You are correct Gary. I am looking for a sharp pullback in gold followed by a memorable bounce up to the daily chart primary trend-line which i think still offers sufficient resistance to repel gold back down one more time. Whether I am right or wrong remains to be seen. This is still a bear market so short positions can be rewarding when the direction changes.

      1. Gary Post author

        This is not a bear market.

        Gold is making higher highs and higher lows on a yearly cycle degree.

        And you don’t get a 180% rally in a bear market.

        The miners just suffered one of the most destructive bear markets in history. Big bear markets are followed by big bull markets, not by another bear market.

        You really need to quit reading Armstrong’s nonsense. He’s missed both legs of this bull market just like I said he would.

        1. Pedestrian

          When gold breaks out past 1400 and decisively holds above the long term trend-line established back in 2011 I will agree with you (see the monthly chart which is my reference here). Until then I will keep playing this as a bear market and resist taking long gold positions. That’s just my preference Gary. My trading time frames are generally pretty short as you know. But you could always be right. Maybe this is a bull market and I am too stubborn to see. But I just need more evidence before I will commit. Kind of like getting a solemn oath from the gal next door before you put a big, fat diamond on her finger.

          Marriage to gold will just have to wait.

          1. bginvestor

            Ped,

            With all respect, after its breaks it long term trend line, and u get confirmation, you would potentially have missed much or most of the gains in 2017..

            That’s a little too late for me! After price action clearly broke last summer’s trend line, that was a strong sign of trend reversal.

          2. Pedestrian

            Correct. Caution comes with a price.That’s where the short term trading comes in otherwise I would have nothing to do with my spare time while waiting!

  5. Steffmeister

    Yes this is still a Bear market in Gold&Silver, however if we set a new LOW by midsummer, simultaneously with a spike in my preferred indicator, that would be the end of the golden bear.

    … and if not this summer, maybe the next?

    We might be heading down from here, the non conventional analysts says that scenario has some probability of playing out in coming months. It makes sense in a way that the stock market catches a final bid before Q3, then it’s time for precious metals to break away from other markets.

    Bye bye stockmarkets – Hello Gold&Silver 🙂

  6. Emptyness

    Nobody knows what Gold will do next week or next month. But I know the fundamentals (debt rising and rising, why interest rates have to stay low + inflation slowly rising = negative real rates coming) and they are undoubtedly good for gold. Here in germany we already have negative real rates. In this way Draghi (ECB chief) tries to rescue the bankrupt southern european countries. The same will happen to the US under Trump. It’s the only way to reduce the debts. So gold will be in a bull market for years. Buy now, lean back and wait. Gary will tell you when the gold bull market is over (surely not before 2020).

  7. Don

    I don’t always agree with Gary but this time, I think he is right. Maybe that’s a bad sign? The PMs look to me like there will be plenty of upside action coming during 2017 and 2018. Trying to play the dips is fun but one should always keep a large core position. At this point, silver and platinum are my favorites, but not so much the miners.

  8. Option Trader

    Iherecompletely agree with Gary here. SLV Option calls are extremely cheap here folks. Even cheaper than GLD and GDX and Sil calls. I believe these are the best value right now. I added 25% more to my positions on Friday.

  9. ARends

    Ped,
    I must say I must agree with Gary! Looking at the big picture in the world either demand circumstance or technical analysis which a lot of outlooks form the foundation of direction and technical for the bigger chart view not just technical. The smaller timer frame the bigger picture become irrelevant but news. China gold demand (1/4 of world population), Manipulation objective of hiding devaluing $ and currency, unrest, WARS (brink diverse heightened tensions of looking for wars) world financial situation as never in world history, underlying indicators many diverse showing we precisely the places we were before the previous crashes, political outlook of Trump and monthly chart view from late 90’s a bull correction. This makes makes technical outlook noise except that after the fib turn 2015 higher high Gary refers to . Fundamentals are 50% red herrings in the noise that the banks use to manipulate as proven now over and over. The short term out looks kan be used just to maximise considering the YCL and deep retracements which are high risk against a trend with the indicators always give 50/50 gamble. Risk management is using what you know to maximise profits and minimise loss on the full picture. Basing the trade on the foundation of the swing trades on as many of the probability known for the larger frame influences, then considering the smaller bulls in the later swing trades brings us back to what is the strongest trend in the lower time frames from daily to weekly of the trade which is influenced by news less keeping technical as larger factor. If you believe we in a bear market that needs to prove itself by passing the trend line still just to a degree subject to the strength of a larger trend in ignoring the bigger picture. If you do day trades come back to the same in price action or trend. We still in a strong trend on way to the trend line after a higher high in a strong trend. Your argument does not stack up of the risk you take as a day trader but obviously come down to the knowledge of the trade of knowns for of the risk(gap odds is up next day etc) So faith to effect to the risk of the outcome. so ….hahaha so we all actually become people of faith in the proof of the what we believe of the known fact of our present knowledge of a known risk, the knowledge to paint the perception of all that form the foundation of the trade. So you are only as right as what you believe on your knowledge based on combination of diverse experience that gives you the faith to pull that trigger. It is with that conviction you trade you win were others loose and another win where you loose. All the best mate! As beauty lies in the eye of the beholder, insight comes by another road.

  10. Pedestrian

    It always comes on a weekend. There will be a story that sets the trend for the next week. And often its something unexpected. Well yesterday the EU Commission President Jean Claude Junker said he won’t seek re-election but then added ominously Europe would not remain united as Britain would divide the member states of the EU. Sounds like a reason for Euro to be sold off tonight if you ask me and as the Euro falls so goes gold.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/11/jean-claude-juncker-doubts-eu-will-remain-united-brexit-talks/

  11. Strike

    That might be a gift for those whose aggressive or leveraged accounts are not fully invested. As I said 1308 has been a strong magnet from both directions and possibly still in play with or without a dip first.

  12. Strike

    BTW Surf yes I have noticed the outperformance of juniors. Recently JNUG has been kicking NUGT’s butt. The analogy is silver and gold (Ag/Au ratio). Very bullish IMO. That’s why I think
    a) 1308 sooner rather than later
    b) perhaps much less of pause/correction there than everyone is predicting. Maybe a blow through to Ped’s 1400 after crashing Gary’s rest-of-2017 triangle.

  13. Option Trader

    PED:

    With all due respect, I appreciate your views on this board. But I do feel you are one of the individuals that Gary is talking about that won’t make a real penny during this precious metals bull run. It’s a shame you take up so much space on Gary’s blog, showing no sign of belief in what he has been repeatedly trying to explain on the blog. Honestly, if I were Gary I would have given up a long time ago.
    TIME STAMP THIS:
    Miners have confirmed last week they are ready make march much much higher. You’ll be looking back a few weeks from now very disappointed that you didn’t go long precious metals with both hands and feet last week.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      With all due respect 90% of traders lose money. That translates to 9 out of 10 ten people that post on this board are losing money. In the case of gold bugs it could be only 1 in a 100 that makes money since this is a pretty ornery group. Therefore almost everyone that posts on this board is losing money. Those unfortunately are the facts.

    2. Pedestrian

      Really?

      Let’s watch and see then. I think I’m on pretty solid footing here. Let’s just say I believe in myself.

      Gold gets Monkey hammered today. It’s a seller’s market. Should be nice and red too. And lucky you I will even fess-up I put my money where my mouth is and got short ahead of the crowd. The rest is up to God and Goldman Sachs.

      Bless them both.

  14. Strike

    The advancing phase of the 2016 yearly cycle went from 1050 to 1375. Duplicating those numbers arithmetically (exponentially would result in a higher number, but I’ll be conservative here), our current yearly cycle would advance to 1125 + 325 = 1450 before heading down. Before you thumb your nose at that remember how deep the 2016 yearly cycle downmove was. We are starting this one from a depressed 1125 level, similarly to the 2016 bull market kickoff from 1050.

    I say 1450 by summer. I am not in your bear market camp Ped.

  15. crow

    I think the huge volume in JDST last week is worrisome for those who are long (smart money positioning maybe). Next week will probably be down for gold and GDX. By the way, even those who are positioned for longer term gains can still take a little money off the table from time to time and put it back after a pull back. This doesn’t make them “day traders”. It is just a precaution, booking some profits, in case the market falls hard unexpectedly. As the probabilities and potential profits change, your positioning can change accordingly even if you are trying to ride an intermediate cycle as Gary is urging.

  16. Strike

    Actually OT, even though I disagree with Ped’s current outlook, I look forward to all his posts. I don’t think as you said, “It’s a shame you take up so much space on Gary’s blog” does Ped justice. His input is always reasoned and thoughtful and, for all I know, it might be the correct one, even if I disagree.

      1. Pedestrian

        DSLV hits important support during this night I suspect. But then there is a hell of a rally in store if you follow the chart lines. What that is telling us exactly is not clear but to me it smells like trouble has arrived for the next couple months in metals land. Is a massive rally in stock markets potentially in the cards? We can only wait until we find out.
        http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=dslv&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

        1. Gary Post author

          It’a a waste of time trying to chart technicals on leveraged funds. They don’t move based on technicals. They move based on the underlying asset. In this case silver. Chart the technicals of silver and you will get a much better idea where DSLV or USLV are likely to head.

  17. Gary Post author

    Rather than trying to second guess where the technical might go tomorrow I think one is much better off focusing on sentiment and regression to the mean.

    When sentiment turns deeply bearish (as it did in December) it takes a considerable amount of time for that to fully reverse and become bullish complacent. As I said we aren’t anywhere near those kind of levels yet. Bullish sentiment on gold is only 49%.

    Considering at the recent bottom sentiment had achieved bearish levels not seen in decades it’s going to have to rise much further than 49% before it’s ready to turn back down again. The only thing able to short circuit these kind of regression moves would be manipulation, but like I said I haven’t really seem much evidence of manipulation in the metals for many months now. The banks got busted and are paying multi-million dollar fines. We probably don’t have to worry too much about manipulation anymore.

  18. Goild

    I have no take for what the candle this week will look like.
    GDXJ has hit the election day high and that might signal the start of the dip.
    Volume continues robust.
    USD is posing a threat.
    Gold is now at -.4%

  19. Don

    Gary is right about the folly of trying to apply technical studies to triple leveraged funds. The incredible decay distorts the charts to the point of making technical study useless. Look at unleveraged products (GDX, GDXJ) for a true picture. (This is the second time today that I have agreed with Gary, a first, I am sure!)

    1. Option Trader

      I don’t know. .. I look at technical studies very differently. I study candlestick behavior and how they act cooperatively at specific moving averages. They are a language, not just there to look pretty.
      If you understand their language and can identify set up and confirmation configurations, consistent and accurate results will happen. (No matter leveraged or non leveraged etfs)

  20. macman1519

    Bloomberg article, more uncertainty, more confrontation, more gold going higher!!

    America’s Biggest Creditors Dump Treasuries in Warning to Trump
    by Brian Chappatta
    12 February 2017, 17:00 GMT-5
    Japanese investors cull U.S. government debt by most since ’13
    Currency-hedged returns were worst on record last quarter

  21. ARends

    Now qualified if you want as a gold bug for now, after all the evidence that has demonstrated to me from the global situation in all outlook and our bull market evidence I see. Not considering risk management in the meduim term for profit maximisation. Here is a interesting chart.

    Interesting HUI bull rally study and time indicative compared to where we stand. I would say we halfway to the worst rally since 2001…so considering we believe we in a bull market with shortest 5 months and longest 12 months. Then it was 90%-250% gained in those rallies. We are two months and 110% in this one now. This says a lot….we got a rally with a rocket in its pocket. It seems Gary point that there is many months and gain is really illustrated here for those that lack the faith

    https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/HUI-BULL.png

  22. ARends

    Goild, thats always a good question, then a prayer

    (A PM Trader’s Prayer)

    God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, ( Mr Markets Moves for He is Omnipotent)

    Courage to change the things I can, ( My Portfolio)

    And wisdom to know the when to sell.

    Oh and if you don’t mind please

    Just Once….. Tomorrow’s JNUG Chart Today.

    Amen
    https://goldtadise.com/?p=391560

  23. Dday

    Daily gold, you can see on the RSI(5) rapidly approaching oversold, but take note the stoch has only just turned down, this indicates a potential longer period of weakness, the rsi could remain oversold while the stoch catches up. Gold could hit $1210 to meet the trend line drawn. Anyways i sold my dust which i bought at 24.6, I know i’m a dumb day trader. Waiting patiently to enter NUGT….lol

  24. terrywg

    Squared off my first tranche of short spot gold for breakeven. Going long 1 tranche at 1221.

    Think some of the gold bugs here might appreciate this.

    @Ped

    Dollar correction might come to an end soon based on my most recent analyses. No time to explain now but thought I should keep you posted.

      1. terrywg

        No worries Ped. Unfortunately I will not be commenting here further. Just came by to update you.

        I’ve moved my discussions to goldbugspray.blogspot.com

        If you ever get tired of putting up with the constant abuse do find the time to join me.

          1. Pedestrian

            Ok, went over and had a look. But the site wants you to sign in with an existing ID from Twitter, Google, Facebook or Disqus and I don’t belong to any of those clubs. Man, the monitoring just never ends does it. So many sites want to identify you these days with a reference to another site. I think I’ll pass since the whole tracking concept is objectionable at some level. It’s that whole mega-data thing where software collects every detail of your life for marketing. Next thing I’ll be getting adds for adult Depends in my mailbox. You just KNOW that’s what they are up too!

          2. terrywg

            Ped,

            you can just create a diqus account and link it to a burner email. That is what I did. and it also solves the tracking issue. Not much of a hassle.

            It is well worth the time imo. The debate there is a lot more informed.

    1. Strike

      Interesting you say that about 1200 Don. Both 1200 and 1220 acted as resisistance on the way up, and so far 1220 has correspondingly served as support today. Independently I came up with 1200 as a good buy point also, but I’m not so sure 1220 doesn’t deserve consideration for a partial entry.
      And yes Gary, this is for trading funds, not timing for core holdings.

  25. Pedestrian

    Looks like GDX will cling inside its channel for another day or two. I am waiting for it to break down from that support line but gold will have to do a little more selling before that happens. If what we are seeing today is the start of a trending decline then this won’t be over in a day.

    We had a nice predictable drop today in metals although nothing as severe as I was expecting. But the bulls in the crowd might want to come back and tell me again exactly why I am going to be wrong! Especially as I’m pretty sure they were sitting on their keyboards ready with salvos of one-liner insults to fire off had today seen gold up instead of down.

    Needless to say I anticipate more of the same but gold needs to recharge and bump up a little here first. It’s all good though and I am on the right side of the trades, however brief they may be. Silver looks very toppy to me right now. That SLV chart warns to get the hell out of Dodge quick. Not sure why anyone would buy that thing right now but each to his own I suppose.

    Looks like a sure-fire way to lose some money if you ask me. Every which way to Sunday.

    Go Bulls!

    1. dboz

      I see healthy consolidation? Nothing goes straight up. Miners are down about 1.5% average, even in the face of a decent gold and silver drop. Dips get bought right up. I see this as a coiling ready to spring up any day. Lots of energy if we get any spot rise. Metals will go up rapidly at some point soon. Your scenario is possible, but not really seeing the bearish bias at this point. Things could roll over as you suggest, anything is possible. This week could be a tell. We will see how it goes. Dollar is again up on light volume. Not a good sign of any bullish move. It could wiggle higher for a while but nothing that will hold IMO.

  26. Gary Post author

    Stocks are being protected. Governments figured out in 2012 they could control the business cycle by propping up stock markets. This is why I keep saying over and over not to short the stock market. It’s a rigged game.

    Just wait for the next crash or semi crash and then buy heavily as the PPT will step in to stop the selling.

    It’s basically a fool proof way to make money until the bubble phase starts then one has to be careful not to get caught in the crash.

    We aren’t close to that phase yet. The Nasdaq needs to rally at least 100% or more in a year to signal the bubble phase is in progress.

    1. dboz

      Mike Maloney has a great video of this on YOUTUBE. Says the market will double in a year, then maybe double again in 6 months, then maybe on the blow off, 1 month. That occurs during hyperinflation though. We aren’t there yet either.

    1. Gary Post author

      The time to buy the market is after the next mini crash. It will come, just be patient and wait for it.

      I’m not expecting to do anything with the stock market until probably April or May. When the PPT stepped in and stopped the coil reversal they for all intents and purposes pushed the next ICL out to April or May.

  27. Don

    The PMs are mostly going to sideways with several up and down gyrations for a few weeks before resuming their upward bias. If they continue to rise, then I think something is in the wind that we are not aware of. War perhaps?

    1. terrywg

      Just closed my long spot gold for a 50 pip profit. Ty for the encouragement bill.

      bill
      February 7, 2017 at 7:29 am
      And as we see shorts getting creamed

      bill
      February 8, 2017 at 4:22 am
      Once again the rush to short a rising market is a common day traders mistake and a fine example of how they NEVER ! EVER! make real money, to busy chasing the scalp…

      bill
      February 8, 2017 at 11:22 am
      So many left behind hoping praying wishing for a pull back. I know it may seem or feel like a top, but just wait you’ve seen nothing yet lol.

      bill
      February 9, 2017 at 9:33 am
      Lol just breaking balls Robert all good I added 300 @ 12.43 sitting on some serious shares

  28. MegaMind

    my sell indicator on the hui daily is turning down…no cross yet… maybe tomorrow… if you are long, just sell and wait for setup unless you are a long term trader then you should be fine…

  29. Robert

    USD finished strong so I agree with Ped. Strong push up and gold should head lower to maybe 1210. But still there are better areas to play and less stress. Just look how easy and effortlessly the industrial metal and steel stocks have gone up. Big moves in Vale, Rio, X. Here we have wasted time with gdx and miners. Damn I need to pay more attention to other sectors. They all went up so nice, no stress trafe,, not the constant up downup down bullshit that gold miners put us through

    1. Gary Post author

      Robert,
      That’s nonsense. Almost nothing has produced the gains so far this year like miners, except maybe uranium (of course you would have needed a crystal ball to see that ahead of time). The XAU is up 32% from the bottom. 32% would be very good for two or even three years in the stock market. The miners did it in 7 weeks.

  30. Option Trader

    GLD gave us a nice bullish reversal candle today at the 100 DMA. That’s nice action.
    I’m watching GDX’s close on Friday. If the week holds up well for GDX, the bears will have their head handed to them going forward.

  31. Goild

    Usually the SM warns of a fall, often with a sort of double top.
    As the interest rates are kept low the SM is on runaway mode with no end on sight.
    Though as Gary says, the deeper the bear the higher the bull.
    Consequently, the higher the bull the deeper the bear.
    And the longer the bull, the longer the bear that should follow.
    Point in case: Japan.

    1. Option Trader

      Goild,
      I never traded futures. Do lots have different expirations like options? I’m assuming one can make a lot more money in futures. Did you start with options?

  32. Goild

    Option Trader.

    Although I have read a bit about options, I really do not know how to play them.
    I mostly trade NUGT that is what I kind of understand and feel comfortable with.
    I make some money day trading NUGT and also was able to make much more by building 10K shares which I sold. Now I am starting the process again of building some lots.

    Your point that one needs to have a plan is so true. I had a plan and vision on the first NUGT leg but failed to plan the follow up. The plan now is to build hopefully 10K shares again.

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