The US Dollar
A close below the 10 DMA on the US Dollar would be the “second step” in the confirmation that its daily cycle is rolling over and starting the next leg down in the intermediate decline. The first confirmation was the initial break of the daily cycle up trend line.
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It’s all about SOTU. It’ll be major kick on the market. But which direction – wait and see.
It should be down. By this time all good news has already been long since priced in, and the interventions to keep the market propped up have caused stocks to stretch way too far above the long term mean. Plus it’s very late in the daily cycle timing band.
Regression should act to take the market back down after the SOTU.
That being said we haven’t had free markets in years so there’s no guarantee that the PPT won’t just keep intervening to prevent any correction from gaining any traction.
This is why I keep stressing not to short the stock market.
Remember during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle price doesn’t stay oversold for very long. If the miners bottomed on Wednesday then this will prove to be an exceptionally mild DCL.
yeah but if correct then whats the prediction for the next correction…??
Gary already said he expects a correction in gold to come somewhere around the 1330’s
It’s too early to predict the next correction at this time.
The big picture still looks like the intermediate cycle has further to go.
The dollar needs to deliver at least one more failed daily cycle and complete an ICL.
Gold sentiment is still neutral at 49% bulls. I wouldn’t expect a top until that goes above 70%.
The BPGDM is still neutral. I wouldn’t anticipate a top until it reaches overbought levels above 80.
And the gold COT is still moderately bullish.
Thanks for the clarification, Gary. Will keep an eye on sentiment.
raising my SI stop $0.25 to 17.75
raising my SI stop $0.25 to 17.75
Gary, you keep saying that no one should short the stock market when it is probably one of the best times in history to do just that. The market is setting up for a severe decline and you are ignoring it while concentrating on gold and the dollar, neither of which are going to produce out sized gains over the next several months.
Are you planning to short the market? if so, are you focusing on any specific sector?
I think miners and silver will do double or triple the percentage gains one could make by trying to fight the PPT.
Yup dollar’s getting smashed today. Should bode well. 🙂 Market’s are fully valued now and should have nowhere to go but down. I think after Trump’s speech tomorrow night, should start moving lower. I agree with Gary in that all the ‘good news’ is priced in.
Don,
I think gold is about to run out of gas and gather that you concluded so and sold your silver?
Can you share your rational for selling silver?
I only sold my leveraged silver metal positions and retained those that were unleveraged. Why? To lock in good profits and because silver is looking a tad bit short term toppy. I would rather put the money into shorting the stock market.
Nice breakout on XAU. Might be back in business!
Today’s pending home sales came in way under the expected consensus. Homes are becoming unaffordable for majority of home buyers with recent increase in mortgage rates.
Durable Goods Orders showed a decline in capital goods orders which reversed the prior three months of strength.
This is not good news and the dollar is reacting negatively.
Interest rate increase coming up? Not looking likely. Even if there is an increase, the economy will continue to struggle. This is very positive for the metals and they’re showing it today.
Rangold is continuing to set up its bullish confirmation set up, today.
I actually thought the home sales number would have hit harder. Not gonna complain tho!
Shorts go boom…. 🙂
Gary, gold is bullish but the miners are severely lagging. I dont know if they will be able to even retest the summer highs. Its just too far back behind gold now. Its looking like if gold hits 1300 GDX may only go to 26 or so?
We’re just gonna have to wait until the big boys decide to step into miners. I expect them to get in this week, if the SOTU address is favorable to gold.
So believe it or not, today I decided to lock in some profits on my SLV option calls. I sold 50% of my positions.
Recently I identified a weekly and a daily confirmation set up on SLV, which I disclosed last week. These set ups confirmed a monthly set up that I disclosed a few weeks ago.
My charting experience has taught me that after a confirmation takes place, a healthy pullback follows with a better buying opportunity. Now, this may not happen with this situation. But today, SLV is pushing up into its upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. This is a perfect time for SLV to take a breather.
Let’s see if we can get a nice pullback soon, so everyone has the opportunity to accumulate in the near future. Meanwhile, I’ll hold my remaining 50% position in SLV for the long term.
The troll fleas better go back to their troll websites. They just keep getting their head handed to them here 😂
Wheee!!! 🙂
ouch! be nice now Gary. gold will not go up forever and your detractors will be quick to jump on you again when it does…..can’t we all just get along! LOL
Oh yes they’ll all come out of the woodwork soon enough!
I get the sense that they maybe are just one or two people with different usernames. It’s unusual that not even one of them is posting, which is suspicious to say the least!
Maybe best to check the IP addresses to see if they are the same.
To be honest, I think they owe an apology to some readers here as there constantly wrong calls have probably cost people.
who exactly owes an apology? and for which calls?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&st=2006-02-27&en=(today)&id=p08263185303
Gary, you are correct on the USD here and a failed Trading or Daily cycle here will also likely lead to its longer Intermediate Cycle Low as well.
Here is my USD thinking from over the weekend:
https://surfcity.co/2017/02/24/usd-update-4/
Also, here is a post on my thoughts on the Gold and Miner (GDX) cycles from late last week:
https://surfcity.co/2017/02/22/gold-and-miner-cycle-update/
gold not going to move untill GoldMan die
I dont know guys….Something is just wrong with miners. I dont recall every seeing gold go up everyday and GDX just staying down. Its not like SPY is collapsing. Something just not right but I will hold on
Robert, check out Gary’s chart of the day on Feb 24. you can see clear divergences that eventually get corrected.
I dunno man. Until we see a 10% + day in NUGT then miners remain vulnerable to new low
I know. it’s pretty frustrating to watch the price action on the miners right now.
I would like to see silver pullback to its 20 DMA on the daily chart before I reinvest my 50% positions in SLV.
Crude is about to break hard one way or the other. I have no clue as to which way it is going to go.
Based on Time, the Crude Trading or Daily Cycle should be topping very soon so the move should be down into the next DCL.
Down
Down.
Brutal. Gary is a genius for being able to charm manipulated markets to the extent he has this year ( & past years).
I’m now going Old Turkey –
With Bitcoin.
looks like this week we are going get that one big red candle…
Very likely.
Just the facts: Now nugt trending down. dust trending up. Rest just distraction.
Hi Gary.. I’m new here… do you have any thought about natural gas?
Talking about Jnug … do you think is going much lower than this? Thanks!!!
Nat gas is too volatile for me. I’ll let others trade that one.
It’s too late in the intermediate cycle to be trading triple leveraged funds. Stick with GDX or GDXJ, and wait for a sign the daily cycle has bottomed before entering.
gdx/gdxj uptrend badly damaged. We could get a bit of a bounce before the trend in force resumes.
Goild, i hope i convinced you earlier today to get out of your miners.
You’re the only bug here that I have sympathy for.
LOL…I like most of them Terry. Other than Roadrunner and that guy named Bang-Jang they are an OK bunch.
miners got beat up pretty good today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p80307326492
Kind of funny, I just got in and read the thread before checking my trades. Is everyone here on the same planet? Why so much bullishness? And I think Roadrunner just got renamed Roadkill because gold and silver are both rolling over and my JDST is up 22% today alone. That’s better than 40% in 10 trading days.
Respectable enough for this bear. So take note you doubters. Its another win.
On the other hand even the bear trades wear out and I notice GDX is just about touching its lower Bollinger. So maybe another day of fun before it bounces back. I am not waiting though and will take profits today. There may be a rebound trade in this but I still think the larger trend will be down for some time so play it by ear and I think its advisable to be back in cash before Donald speaks.
Ped, am gonna try to tempt you once again to join me in the site I posted a few weeks back. You know the one. Trying to talk sense into gold bugs is like trying to teach the blind how to see colour — it’s futile and detrimental to your own sanity.
Btw, congrats on the JDST trade… one of the best I’ve seen in recent memory.
PS don’t shit on roadrunner he/she’s actually one of the more rational ones. Let me teach you how to do it:
bill
February 9, 2017 at 9:33 am
Lol just breaking balls Robert all good I added 300 @ 12.43 sitting on some serious shares
@Ped, you’re a funny guy. You must have ADD or reading comprehension problems as you did not read my posts….you should go read all my posts, what, 10 ? …but I guess I left a good impression on you…I appreciate that. Doesn’t bother me if you call goldbug, fiestabug, roadkil. You just sound silly.
i told you my positions last night. 3 SI @ avg. price 16.58 stop 17.50 Nothing else in the PM space.
Today raised stop to 17.75 (posted above this morning) so I have secured minimum profit of $1,17 an ounce x 15K ounces. AND i could sell it all now for an additional .40 cents per ounce. But, I am sure you did better than me on your jdst trade though. Congrats.
Now as for your positions in the PED fake account. You should be happy.
We short at the open short 1 GC @ 1255. Stop @1263 (in case it bounced over 1260) but we got stopped out for an 8 ounce loss but re-entered the short at 1259 Stop @1265 (just above high of today, then lowered stop to breakeven, 1259. So your Ped fake Gold short is down 8 oz (realized) and up 8 ounces (unrealized) as of this posting. so not too bad for the gold short…you tell me when you want to cover. or move the stops up.
For Silver. short at 18.34 stop @ 18.60 so while didn’t start out great you’re up .14 an ounce as of now. So will leave stop as is and see how we finish.
i would say the shorts have had a good day.
Ha ha ha. You are HILARIOUS!
Hey Ped. I read the comments here sometimes but I just don’t care to get in on the rangling… it’s wasted energy. Anyway, I have agreed with all your comments about miners pulling back because I spotted some worrisome divergences on the daily charts a couple of weeks ago. You spotted them as well.
So I started tightening stops under all my miners at prices that I think are meaningful and let those who want to drop get sold. I’m usually left with about half my miners that want to hold up fine… and I aim for a level of no more than 50% long. With the 50% remaining I try to keep half of that in cash for the ride down, and the other 25% goes into a tamer form of JDST called HGD that I buy in Canada. It’s a double miners bear, not a triple. The net result is that by time a bottom has arrived, since my account is now balanced I don’t make any money and I don’t lose any. And if we’re truly in a gold bull market (I’m convinced we are) then to be able to ‘not lose a penny’ during all the pullbacks is a noble enough goal for me and very, very lucrative. In fact I made a very small percentage profit today.
So when a cycle low occurs I’m sitting with my miners that didn’t want to drop… and a ton of cash. I find that when I make a ton of money on the up-legs, and lose ‘nothing’ on the downlegs, it’s a recipe for one hell of a lot of success. *And I wish you continued success*.
Just continue to go with what you see (like I do) and don’t waste your time or talents with arguments (like I don’t, lol). Life is too damned short for that 🙂
JNUG no mercy
The dam just broke on miners today. Does anyone have any idea why today and why so much so suddenly? I noticed JDST bottomed on the 8th but really didn’t think it would take 14 days for it to actually make real headway – then BOOM – in 1 day. I’m thinking more downside on JNUG though we may see a day or two bounce. Any other thoughts?
This is the time to load again.
I just got 19K shares of NUGT.
decent time to buy… just keep your stops very tight.
Just my thoughts Terry. I’ll have a better look at it tomorrow.
I added 5K NUGT shares for 23K total shares.
Now I am going to pray.
That should get everyone bearish. Bull stampede out the door.
GDX is looking extremely bearish here. There is increasing volume to the downside, pushing into its lower Bollinger band and major M.A.’s. We should see some bounce tomorrow, but if the Bollinger band gives way, watch out.
I’m looking for a pullback. But it’s better to wait for confirmation that the reversal is over, before predicting a bottom.
Terry,
Thanks for the comments.
Just closed out my JDST position at the close which I entered on Friday about 30 mins before the close and did post it on Friday as well in the forum. Replied to one of Peds posts I believe. I am totally in cash (and bullion) now and other than a day trade here or there intend to wait for a bottom to form. I have to say that I was fairly confident I would have a good (JDST) trade but never expected what happened today. There was some serious technical damage done to JNUG. I`m thinking the January lows are in play. For now, I want to watch and wait and allow the market to come to me for a change.
Nice work KHT. You are not alone in being surprised. While I had an expectation the trade would work I did not foresee a 30% day. But sometimes we get a quick bonus to the upside. I have not had time to read the news yet. What the hell happened anyway? Any reason for this burst of activity?
Rate hikes are on the table for March. In other words, no reason.