127 thoughts on “COUNTER TREND MOVES ARE GETTING MATURE

  1. GMoney

    Does anyone care to speculate what Trump meant by this statement he made a few days ago:

    “As far as the currency devaluations, I have been complaining about that for a long time,” Trump told reporters at a joint news conference in Washington, D.C., with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

    “I believe that we will all eventually and probably very much sooner than a lot of people understand or think, we will be all at a level playing field,” Trump said.

    Well, how does he plan to level the playing field? Perhaps value all currencies against Gold?

    1. Strike

      I don’t think so. I think all of his anti NAFTA anti Mexico anti China anti Euro anti immigration policies weigh on the dollar, which is fine with his goals. Meshes nicely with Gary’s ICL/YCL for the dollar BTW.

    2. Jacob

      Gmoney, I gave that comment a great deal of thought, as I’ve been waiting for the 1988 economist cover to mean something, and 2018 is next year. It didn’t just sound like a USD comment did it? Level playing field, Centralised currency. How it unfolds, and how it is backed is all I wonder about, that it is happening is a given. My worry is USD explodes higher, which forces his hand?

  2. Strike

    That’s the reason why I disagree with Pedestrian. I think the President of the US wants a weak dollar and rightly or wrongly he’s doing it. Weak dollar is the definition of a gold rally. Sometimes charts need to be viewed in the light of politics.

    1. macman1519

      Oh, Trump will get a eak dollar, alright and gold will continue to rise. Remember watergate and a burglary, well now we have Flynn’s phone call andRussian blackmail. Sound familiar. The questions to come are. Who instructed
      FLYNN TO CALL THE Russians on numerous ocassions? When did Trump know? What do the Russians have on Trump? ( check the tape of the hookers pissing on der Fuhrer. Pass the popcorn while watching.) Who are all the people involved in this conspiracy. Man, only three weeks and already sinking into infamy. Trump, Traitor, Terrible!. Come on you sad sack of Trump driftwood. Keep defending this traiterous piece Russin dung. He’s just doing it his way, yes it’s ok to lie daily to the world and think everyone is too stupid to pick that up. Bahhhhhh, Trump is good, the rest of the world is evil. Reality TV has hit the white house. America is the laughing stock of the world for having elected such an obvious flim flam shyster. Buy gold, only going to get worse. The impeachment process of Donald Trump has begun. YAHOO!!!!! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN AND IMPEACH THE TRAITOR TRUMP!!!!!!!

    2. Pedestrian

      Best he can do is slow down the rise. But stop it? Not a hope in hell. Sorry, the dollar is bigger than Trump and even the Fed. It will move by forces quite outside the control of the US power levers because of the way its set up and calculated.

  3. Dreamer

    If Trump wants a cheaper dollar, which he just said, then he has a plan. The guy does back up later what he said. Trump changed and switched back to the One china policy so what did he get back in return? It’s the private negotiations and agreements that we should really focus upon. Trump is smart. He created out of thin air negotiating leverage by not recognizing the One china policy and then he used it to get what he wanted. Trump did write the book, “The art of the Deal”. That’s my take.

    1. Pedestrian

      The deal is China gets to join the reserve currency club once the Euro falls apart but between now and then they have to be responsible managing levels. They badly want to join and internationalize the Yuan so Trump has a lot of leverage to make them play ball on his terms. That also means stunting the strength of the dollar versus currencies other than the Euro which is almost certain to implode in a ball of flames in the next 18 months. We are going to have a very serious crisis if the dollar cannot be slowed down in its ascent. There really are very few alternatives available to balance against dollars and the smaller reserve nations of Canada, Australia etc cannot hope to carry the burden of higher valuations alone or even as a group. Watch to see Sterling climb back fairly strongly though. In the currency markets it really is a zero sum game. So one nations strength translates to another weakness. All countries cannot devalue against dollars at once though without stinking up the whole system badly.

  4. Pedestrian

    Gold should be going down for another few days at least. Gold stocks on the other hand are resistant to falling as many are moving up with the wind to their back of rising stock markets. Silver meanwhile dances to a different drummer and looks to me it has a bit more upside. I would not stay long at that party though as the toppiness of some silver charts warn of a serious decline. I might go so far as to say that silver (and copper) could even be warning of a market correction although that is always a difficult call. But you would have to be delusional or under the spell of your own tired out rhetoric to honestly believe either metal is about to make a moon shot that can be managed with an easy buy it and forget entry. Sorry, not this week. Both metals still have a destiny with some downside. And if you cannot stomach short positions then best to just stand aside.

  5. Strike

    Ped – We have an issue with timeframes I think. I agree with your dollar strength proxy long term as other currencies collapse, but I think short term -over a month or 2 or perhaps into the summer – the dollar will follow the politically desired path. JMHO.

    1. Option Trader

      Morning,

      Tuesday’s do have a reputation for being known as “reversal Tuesdays” so keep an eye out, especially with Yellen speaking. Hopefully this will be the case for precious metals. .

  6. Goild

    Perhaps it would be interesting to chart the ratio of the S&P PE to the 10 year bond yield.
    It will probably show a current bubble.
    Is there a ticker symbol in stock charts for the S&P PE?

  7. macman1519

    well the Manchurian candidate, bet three quarter of Trump supporters and trump himself dont know where Manchuria is, will cause gold to go up, you think yellen will say anything to make this situation any worse. On air force over the weekend, trump was asked if he knew the issues with flynn, trump said he hadnt heard anything, even thought hed been notified by the fbi last month that flynn had been compromised. Going to impreachment, trump is compromised, all his proposed initiatives are toast. The russian puppet and the legislature and judiciary will all be busy now in impeachment process. Markets will tank, gold will rise. Been right so far, now the really interesting stuff will be coming. Buy silver outpacing gold!

    1. Don

      Macman, you are hilarious as the perfect stand up guy for the rabid left. I picture you frothing at the mouth. LOL! Keep up with the very funny commentary. I love it!

        1. Don

          WallStreet: I am going to initiate a modest position in Natural Gas. It is seriously oversold short term but I am cautious because the weekly chart looks like it has room for more downside. That said, NG could rocket up any day now. I would feel more confident about buying if we were closer to the end of February as that is when NG frequently bottoms.

    2. bill

      Seriously what are you 12? Funny part here is you keep spouting off the same crap daily and no one even cares. So I ask who are yo getting your message out to if no one listens or cares?

      One thing I will say tho …SON, If this were my blog I would have shut you down many moons ago. And don’t give me this free speech crap either, start your own blog.

      Its to the point where its not even politics with you, your gone full retard. Fact is I think you should be evaluated but thats me.

      1. macman1519

        Billy boy, everything ive said has been right, u say this is unimportant??? That the president of the US is a russian stooge. U are unbelieveable, u r fake news at its best. Gold going up, bill u and ur trumpites are finished, kaput mein herr. Keep trying to lie to the American people as Trump has done from the very beginning. TRUMPS silence on this issue over nite and this morning IS DEAFENING!!! SPINMASTER BILL, YOU LOSE!!!!! GOLD AND SILVER GOING UP.

    1. macman1519

      Impeachment for what??? Lol quit watching the fake news at fox and getbur heads out off trumps ass. Time to smell the rosesTRUMP IS COMPROMISED. HE HAS BLASTED ALL HIS ALLIES, BUT NOT ONE UNKIND WORD ABOUT THE RUSSIANS. hmmmm, his chief advisor, a russian stooge, who controlled the stooge? The biggest stooge of all, herr trump. U guys too stupid to see beyond ur nose. Why so quiet this morning from all republicans ane the white house?????? No denials just silence!!!! Everyone in the whitehouse is looking to cut a deal with the fbi, trying to avoid TREASON CHARGES! With all the trashing of established republican polititions during trumps speeches, u think the republican establishment is behind trump?? They are behind the establishment croney Pence, the next controllable president of the US. The E tu Brutus moment has arrived, the daggers are at the ready, trump will be lucky to escape prison!!! Buy gold, uncertainty and the leader of the free world is putins puppet. Everybody knows it except u trump embarrassment supporters who need to find the wizard so he can give u a brain, watch the turnaround in silver after 10:15

      1. dboz

        You have lost your mind? What treason? Whackadoodle. Nothing will come of this. The guy resigned. It’s over. Move on. How will the House decide to impeach over this? Wet dreams for the left.

          1. dboz

            How about HRC selling 25% of our Uranium to Russia? Treason!

            How about BHO making a terrible deal to allow Iran nukes? Treason?

            How about BHO paying terrorists a random? Treason?

  8. Don

    Silver is putting on quite a show today. I am impressed but not buying more. In terms of percentage of net worth, I am at very near my self imposed limit of exposure to the PMs. I have zero exposure via JNUG, NUGT. If one must play triple leveraged, play UGLD or USLV which are plays on the actual metal and which suffer far less decay than leveraged miners funds.

  9. Don

    Gary, why are you trying to understand and even worse, make predictions about currencies? You have no hope of being accurate given the extreme interventions by every central bank in the world. You have been calling for the demise of the American dollar for the past six months and where has that done for except to tarnish your credibility. Stick to what you know.

  10. BestOfLuck

    I humbly suggest Pedestrian opened a new blog and present ALL his glorious entries and exits with TimeStamp.

    I just hope the board would be cleaner with more direct messages about trading, instead of various reasons, and changing them everyday to justify a position which he may or may NOT have entered….

    1. terrywg

      Ped made 10 winning trades in a row… lost on 2 trades and then subsequently made another few winning trades. ALL TIMESTAMPED.

      You, and the rest of the condescending shit-talkers on here have done JACK-ALL. Sheep will always be sheep. They don’t have it within themselves to aspire to more.

          1. Option Trader

            Terry, I get the sense you are a good trader.. Let’s stop keeping score here and share some stuff with us.,

  11. Don

    I think Ped has a DSLV position although it has been a losing trade thus far. maybe he will be right and the PMs are in for a big drop. I am not liking today’s action but not selling my long sliver and platinum positions.

  12. dboz

    How’s right, gold or forex? Forex taking off and gold sitting tight. Very bullish with no panic so far. Dollar up on low volume, won’t hold, gold will be right.

  13. Option Trader

    Today’s volatility is expected when the Fed speaks. I never trade on these days.
    Best to stay out of the market, stay focused and come back to the computer at the end of the day to see where the market closes. Very easy to lose money on days like today.

  14. Option Trader

    Interesting to see how the metals close today.
    If they end in the green, this will be the second occasion in which metals held strong during Fed meetings. If we end the week in the green, well…. you know my thoughts on this.

    1. Pedestrian

      Doubtful green will help you. Its just going to be a higher peak to fall from. Metals are gearing down little by little. Look at copper as a perfect example and the likeliest Canary in the market correction Coalmine. It has hit major chart resistance at both the weekly and monthly levels. She’s going down boys and if you care to check you will see that TECK, RIO and FCX are probably good shorts here. Certainly TECK which is displaying a classic topping pattern that is hard to argue with. What the hell is that saying about the good vibes and the Donald put? The market already smells it coming too. We are going into a recession if we are not already technically there and both copper and silver will be knocked down over the next few months. Starting pretty much any old day now if you need to know. I really don’t know how anyone can look at those two commodity charts and say with a straight face they have a whole lot more upside. But some people just like to lie to themselves.

      1. bill

        Once again ANOTHER bad call on the books…Lol. Follow this guy at your own peril. One good call he’s made and he thinks he’s a Market strategist.

        Me thinks this one read to much FAKE news.

  15. Option Trader

    Financials are something to look at too.
    I’ve been studying BAC since December. January provided a long term set up and this week is in the midst of a daily set up confirmation. Thursdays close will determine if I buy or not.

    1. Pedestrian

      Don’t you follow the news? Competitive currency devaluations, cancellation of trade agreements, slow global growth, rumours of war and new trade barriers should be enough information to get you thinking. But if that doesn’t we also have walls being erected, freedoms of movement being curtailed worldwide and signs of stagflation. Those are requisite ingredients to make it all happen so don’t look for this in the charts because most lag. We are already at a cycle top. The market will react before a steeper slowdown is actually on the charts. But the risk has already arrived and I think we will see a correction to take it into account.

  16. Strike

    During approximately the first 6 months of 2016 NUGT and JNUG if held 100% of that time period were 12 to 16 baggers. This is the crux of Gary’s argument. The only decision would have been exactly when to sell one single time if that were your mission. Even if you were wrong by a factor of 2 either side of the peak, 6 to 8 baggers are certainly ok I’m sure.
    This leads to a question for Pedestrian. What did your indicators say during that 6 month period? Did you play the move? How did it work out? Was it close to a 6 to 8 bagger?
    The reason why I am asking you this Ped is that to me this move so far in 2017 reminds me so much of that 2016 rally. And having an administration bent on fiscal stimulation while championing a weak dollar policy is a potent prescription for increased inflation.
    Can it be that the charts are pointing out temporary bumps in the road? That is what happened in 2016 and they gave way to a breathless advance.

    1. Pedestrian

      My indicators said we would see a 100% retracement of the 2016 move. I was virtually alone in making that call and I still believe its the correct one. We have already seen a very substantial decline interrupted only by this recent 2017 bear market rally. But the retrace is still looking possible if we break below 1150. And a double bottom at 1050 is not out of the question.

      This is still a bear market.

        1. Pedestrian

          That article talks about a 1.6% annualized inflation rate. And you are not even taking currency changes into account. So some nominal price increases do not warn me of incipient inflation especially when most of its was accounted for by energy costs anyway (which are overdue to decline again btw ). Do you really think that stacks up against a dollar that has risen 12% since just last May?

          Look, if the market corrects as I suspect it will do soon there won’t even be a debate about this anymore since unemployment will surge, retail sales will whither, profits will take a nose-dive and both commodities and real estate will soften up fast.

          Its already on the charts if anybody can be bothered to look. Copper has peaked. Silver has peaked. Real estate has peaked and on and on. Do you really think that prices will just keep going up when disposable income is shrinking and money velocity is still falling?

          What you linked there is the usual business media myopia. It takes none of the things I mention above into account. It only remarks on a couple data points that are meaningless in the big picture and sure to send you in the wrong direction.

          Look at the big picture. If Europe fails or China hits a credit snag I can guarantee you that there will be a holy understanding of just how real deflation can be. Thing is, you can’t see it until it arrives. Between now and then you need to read the signposts.

          1. Pedestrian

            Yes, silver has peaked. Give it a little more time to form a proper top. She’s pretty much done though. If you buy here just take note of the risks. And PLEASE…..look at the technicals on it before telling me again it has not peaked.

          2. WallStreetJesus

            Silver peaked. I wish or hope you are right. I would love to see a big red candle but now sure about that.

            Silver looks like its about to surge. One of them big big green candles. It doesn’t want to stay down. Every time it sells off it rallies right back.

            Usually when things roll over they sell off and go out on the lows. That’s not happening. Meaning the rally probably isn’t done yet. The shorts are probably going to get a little squeeze once over $18.

  17. bill

    Once again another day of buy and hold is the call….I’m sure many chased the Yellen BS…which turned out to be nothing we haven’t already heard.

    No news good news….longs still holding the seat.

    1. Pedestrian

      SOXL?….yes.

      Buyer beware. It never ends nicely. Betcha a Burrito it goes all the way back to 5 bucks.

      (I never pay up either btw so don’t bother betting)

      1. WallStreetJesus

        No, no…..the train has left the station. We will be lucky in our lifetime to get a pullback to DOW 20K.

        Goldman Sachs owns the computer with unlimited buying power backed by the Fed. The day will come when people can’t even remember what a red candle looks like.

  18. Pedestrian

    I have to tell you, I am a little incredulous that some people here still don’t seem to understand that the risk going forward is deflation, not inflation as so many bugs insist. But its simply beyond me to explain it in a short post and very few of you look at the data anyway. So good luck with precious metals. While I would agree another bounce is coming once this current decline is out of the way I do not in any way believe gold has a good future lined up for the rest of 2017.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/19/fed-risks-repeating-lehman-blunder-as-us-recession-storm-gathers/

    1. Albertarocks

      I hear ya. The FED and central bankers all over the world have been fighting the deflation genie tooth and nail ever since 2009 by mega printing. And all they have been able to do is stave off deflation. The only place inflation has shown up is in the equities markets because the banking pigs kept all that money for themselves and never loaned any of it into the economies (where the magic of fractional reserve banking normally gets stoked up).

      Nobody seems to understand where money comes from, and by extention, that when defaults happen, all those dollars that get defaulted upon just vanish right back into the imaginary void that they were created from in the first place. And since most debt worldwide is in US dollars, there is a mounting pressure for the big boys to get their hands on US dollars so they can pay back some of that debt… either pay it back or go bankrupt. Huge defaults are coming, and they will just increase in pace once the bond markets catch on. The real inflation will come when the next equities crash comes and how the bankers respond to it. We all know how they will respond… and that’s when gold will really skyrocket, and I mean *big time*.

      But for now, there are still those divergences I was talking about two weeks ago in miners and in the mining indexes that suggest the miners might be in for a nasty pullback. So I reduced my holdings and put on some nice hedges a couple of weeks ago and my account is holding up just fine. Contrary to what Gary always preaches, there are some of out here who make a lot of money no matter which way the market goes. It just takes some seriously good cash management and the common sense to get off the tracks when you see the train coming. Those divergence I spoke of “are the sounds of the train”. I’m not professing to know for sure which way they will resolve, but I’m sure seeing pressures to the downside developing… and to the upside in the USD.

      I made a ton of money between Jan and August of 2015. And when the metals and miners pulled back between August and December I made another half a ton. For tomorrow and the days following… I don’t care one way or the other which way the miners go (although I suspect ‘down’). It just irks the hell out of me when I see so much arrogance being preached here.

    1. Pedestrian

      Great chart Boss and timely too. Plus it beats the hell out of that Gold /Silver ratio pablum I read today on KE Report. Some guys just never stop endorsing metals. But then again, they are paid by the industry to spin a positive message. Just look at who sponsors the site.

      Yeah, no conflict there at all.

  19. dboz

    Got this in a email.

    Janet Yellen Is Playing With Matches Next to a $555 Trillion Powder Keg

    Janet Yellen continues to demonstrate that she is either profoundly ignorant or dishonest. Neither of those are positive qualities for a Fed Chair.

    Having maintained interest rates at essentially ZERO for seven years during the Obama years, Yellen suddenly believes it would be “unwise” to wait too long to raise rates now.

    It’s a bizarre claim, particularly when you consider:

    1) The US economy is limping along at best and entering a recession at worse (2016 GDP growth was a measly 1.9% and a the latest spate of data has all suggested a contraction is underway).

    2) The Fed owns some $2.4 trillion Treasuries, which would be negatively impacted by the Fed raising rates.

    3) There are over $555 TRILLION in interest-rate based derivatives floating around… which similarly would be negatively impacted by raising rates.

    For the Fed to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle in the context of just one of these would be foolish… but when all three are in play? Either Janet Yellen is actively trying to sabotage the US economy for whatever reason or she has no remote understanding of economics (or possibly both).

    Indeed, the whole notion of the US raising rates is particularly ridiculous when you compare the US’s economic data to that of Europe.

    Europe is currently experiencing faster GDP growth and a more rapid acceleration of inflation and is engaging in a massive QE program.

    Meanwhile, the US economy is barely growing and we’re supposed to be raising rates?

    Again, this is nonsense. If Yellen persists in her folly and pushes for three rates hikes this year, she’ll unleash a stock market collapse at best and burst the US bond bubble at worst.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Haha that’s right. We are the worlds greatest debtor nation by far. Raising interest rates isn’t something someone with a lot of debt wants.

      Budgets are now set on near zero interest rates. Where is all this money going to come from to pay the interest if rates go up.

      Governments are looking at digital currency as the ultimate control of their populations. I am sure they will enforce severe penalties for black market transactions (gold, silver anything traditional).

      Yikes what have we got ourselves into.

  20. Goild

    Where is the money to pay for a higher interest rate coming from?

    It is coming from our pockets, from the taxpayers pockets.

    Though a successful trader make the SM and the manipulators pay for it !!!

  21. Paul

    sold my position in ERX today 36.44 and bought and sold JNUG for a daytrade today… 11.34 – 11.85… back to cash for now… waiting for Re-Entry… my point is… when you have profits in positions you like; secure the profit… for myself I am in a “Wait n See Mode” this week- p

  22. Strike

    You didn’t answer my question Ped, which is your prerogative. But just in case you misunderstood I’ll ask it again. I asked:

    “During approximately the first 6 months of 2016 NUGT and JNUG if held 100% of that time period were 12 to 16 baggers. This is the crux of Gary’s argument. The only decision would have been exactly when to sell one single time if that were your mission. Even if you were wrong by a factor of 2 either side of the peak, 6 to 8 baggers are certainly ok I’m sure.
    This leads to a question for Pedestrian. What did your indicators say during that 6 month period? Did you play the move? How did it work out? Was it close to a 6 to 8 bagger?”

    You answered,
    “My indicators said we would see a 100% retracement of the 2016 move. I was virtually alone in making that call and I still believe its the correct one. We have already seen a very substantial decline interrupted only by this recent 2017 bear market rally. But the retrace is still looking possible if we break below 1150. And a double bottom at 1050 is not out of the question.
    This is still a bear market.”

    The reason why I bring this up is because it occurred to me that you might be a PERMABEAR – in which case you will be correct sometimes, like Aug – Dec 2016. A talented, sharp, eloquent, intelligent permabear, but perhaps a permabear nonetheless. I hope it is not the case, but I’ll leave the issue in your hands to respond if you wish.
    I’m a big fan of your posts Ped, and always look forward to reading them. That’s why I asked the question in the first place.

  23. Goild

    And yes, I agree with:

    “The Fed is going to try to keep interest rates as low as possible because we have so much debt that these artificially low rates are the only way we can service it.”

    Out of the $20T Fed. debt, 2.5% is about $500 B which is about the military budget. So every 1% really has a major impact.

    And nevertheless, paying the debt will come from the taxpayers pockets.

    So Trump’s tax reduction is not compatible with the debt. We will probably have a tax increase.

  24. zkotpen

    I was looking for a potentially much larger move down in miners yesterday morning, but the second that GDX got to 24.61, something didn’t look right & a bounce looked imminent.

    Gold chart was showing a higher probability setup for an A – triangle B – C type of zig zag before resuming upward movement, whereas GDX seemed to be pointing to a pure triangle setup to be followed by a breakout.

    Fast forward to Wednesday, and price action still shows the same propensities, though I can see how both gold and miners could remain rangebound for several more days — as in both forming wave 4 triangles until FOMC minutes next week, before a final wave 5 up, less than $64 in gold, less than $2.93 in GDX.

    Complex, corrective patterns in play.

    1. terrywg

      @zkotpen

      thanks for the input.

      I have turned bullish on gold in the ST and have set orders to buy at 1227.50. I agree that we could see a wave 5 up and am targeting 1290~ by first week of march.

      USDJPY looks like it is about to top in the next couple of days, JDST chart looks ready for a breakdown. XAUUSD also had a very nice bounce off support last night. Gold also showing relative strength when compared to USD.

      all-in-all trading this consolidation has proven to be very profitable. It is now time to pick a side methinks.

      @ped

      what are your thoughts? It still worries me that you are taking the opposite side of this trade.

  25. ARends

    Terrywg and those analysed NUGT, DUST, JNUG, JDST ect that is x3 and has deterioration in the reverse of another instrument where GDX and GDXJ is the base , just makes no sense. Only one can tell the story while the others are like looking at a graph through a kaleidoscope and thinking you seeing the real picture. For intelligent traders that really seem stupid to me. I hear this so often and just cant help myself that someone can explain to me how you get real analysis from that when directly 99.99% correlate with the objective x /deteriorate only on the move of the base instrument. Volume is irrelavant , price patterns has no value,

    I might not be the sharpest knife in the draw but its ilogic to me, so please explain the value or logic pleaaase

    1. terrywg

      ARends i use “confluence” to inform my decisions. That means I try to look at as many relevant charts as possible to form a narrative that makes sense to me. My main focus is on USDJPY, XAUUSD, the SM and GDX/ GDXJ when I am trying to determine the directional bias of gold.

      My example of JDST was merely ancillary, nothing more.

  26. zkotpen

    terrywg,

    Nice to hear from you!

    Gold: If wave 2 down, expanded flat, lasted 8 days, a good wave 4 can take longer — but 8 trading days is a possibility. Today is candle #5.

    USDJPY: Wish I had been looking at this for quite some time. Mainly, I want to get off the night shift (US market). Wave counts are a bit tough to gauge sometimes, but the math holds up very nicely… notably Nov 9, 2016.

    Also looked at AUDUSD — Amazing how the huge bear market of 1974-2001 was a simple zig zag. Even more amazing that the retrace, 2001-2011, was almost exactly 61.8% (within a half % of the fibonacci level).

    Uff… all of that chart-gazing — new charts, and then the mind-boggling complexity of the familiar charts in their sideways consolidation… time for a cat nap! 😉

  27. zkotpen

    PS: RE: Mind-boggling complexity of gold & GDX charts — one pattern I am taking very seriously currently puts gold in some deeply embedded wave B, aka, “the trap” or “the correction to the correction”. Just imagine wave B of B of B of 4 (of intermediate A of primary (yearly) C).

    The correction to the correction to the correction to the surprising disappointment.
    (Wave 4 is the surprising disappointment or pleasant surprise, after a bullish or bearish wave 3 move, respectively).

    1. terrywg

      @zkotpen

      looks like USD bullishness has some ways to go yet. USDJPY likely to see 115.30 before any profit-taking.

      my order for 1227.50 not triggered today. This is important because 1226 is the pivot point for me. We are likely to see gold slice through support.

  28. Goild

    Good morning.

    One that really counts is the 6-12 months picture.
    So the expectation is that gold will not sink say below $1175, but that gold eventually will go above $1300.
    Based on this one should be care free and not worry while being long.
    If gold comes a bit down then adding more shares would be easier.
    If it goes up, well add more shares too.
    NUGT at $12.50 is still a great bargain.
    In the mean time day trade to hedge a possibly deep sink.

    Good trading to all.

  29. Goild

    Today does not look like a good day for gold.
    We have had a few weak days and so today’s candle can be red.
    I do not know really. Though I set mind for day trading to go both short and long.
    Preferably short.

  30. macman1519

    Holding at 1220 again, nice support building for next run up. Which do u see first, 1300 or 1150???? With Trump now accusing Hilary for his problems, can u believe that megamind at work, dboz, bill grab trump and take him with you to see the wizard so you can all get brains!!!!!! Gold going higher, this will be bigger than watergate, the first president that may be charged wth treason!!! LOCK HIM UP, LOCK HIM UP, LOCK HIM UP, IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY. I JUST WISH THEY WOULD MAKE A LAW TO BAN ALL TRUMP SUPPORTERS FROM EVER VOTING AGAIN DUE TO GROSS GULLIBILITY, MASSIVE IGNORANCE, AND THE INABILITY TO DISCERN MORAL FROM AMORAL BEHAVIOUR, just saying.

    1. macman1519

      Gee, i sure hope i wasnt too tough on u trumpies, i know things dont look good and its tuff to admit to urself that you were completely taken in by the big city huckster, but hey, this is a place to talk gold. And herr trump is doing all he can to get it higher, wouldnt be surprised if hes long jnug!!!!!! Silver is showing even more strenght, also a very good tell.

    1. ARends

      Mac, it is clear you look at CNN and actual fake media..hahaha. Do you ever do research on what is actual facts? You possibly just look at charts. I am not the even USA and can see true the BS of your media. Do yourself a favour and look at actual documents and new they portray. Like the polls that were 100% wrong, ever asked yourself why? The whole election was just a attach on trump but nothing negative about Hillery even the email that came out the messenger were crucified, why?. The Russian hacking that it was admitted was insider now they fired the IT company being the leak but all is still doing Russia hacking, why? Mabe, you should ask the question why? Hillery has enough evidence against her that is going to send her to jail..why did it not happen. Why are all the protesters organised by companies that George Soros fund and the election machines by companies that George funded. You just blindly believe all you hear. Lots of money paid to Hillery and democrats for the corrupt government running, arms, wars. Destabilised Ukraine groups also funded by George, countries have banned his organisations now. Go google some facts mate. All the republicans called deplorable have proven to be the democrats today..hahaha. I am not even US but surely know more than you about the actual evidence seen, people working for the Clinton’s have disappeared, died…hahaha wonder why. Read about what was leaked that you did not hear in the media. Hear a lie enough times and you eventually believe its the truth is proven and phycology actually used by CIA and applied in many countries that they destabelised. Time to do some homework mate

      1. ARends

        Your crash course to wake up:
        Just one more thing why would CNN give Hillery all the questions before the debate, they now admitted doing. Ever seen who the main investors of all the media is and who they fund…hahaha you have no clue what you actually think you know. You actually one of their minions that’s fed by their BS..happely chirping away. You definitely have no idea what a Jihad is and all the african countries 100 thousands (you just hear where money is made by war not actual crises) that you don’t hear about on your news presently happening where countries thousands being killed being rolled out in the rest of Europe and US. It also proved that 30% of all Muslims potentially be immediately radicalised as seen in Europe. Like all the germans that stood by when Nazis rounded up all the jews) Women are equil to dogs, infidel are all not Muslim. Lower than a dog and Jews hated more. Your choices to convert or pay hefty tax, mutilation and enslavement or head chopped off. They cut of their wives throught in the square if a man is dishonoured. US supports Saudi Arabia (Most inhumaine practices) that has chopped more peoples heads of in their public court yards in past 5 years ,, than Isis but they by arms and 9/11 was financed by them but US sell them arms. You know nothing Jhon Snow) According to the Koran they can lie and not honour any agreement made to promote their religion. You think they can be reasoned with and believe in democracy……hahaha you lot have NO idea the BS you fed with a religion of peace. They getting the timing right as EU, Africa and people in place (they call it actually ‘stealth phase’) You got to do with a culture you NO nothing about. You fighting for their rights of the radical entries…do your home work or just remember these words. Trump is saving your life being more informed!!! USA is kept in a bubble of BS..BS minois that spread more BS..money..money.rich arabs

        1. macman1519

          Find the wizard arends he will give u a brain. You have heard about the movie Sofies Choice, well we are about to see Trumps Choice. Senior members of the two parties will come to Trump and give him two choices. Resign for the betterment of the presidency and the country, and all charges will be waived and no prison time for trump and his family. Choice two, fight on and we will go full out against you and ur family. Prison time for whomever is implicated. That will soon be his choice.

        2. jonsyl

          arends, there is no doubt Trump and company are in a Nixon type meltdown. It took Nixon over three years into term to get ousted. For Trump it’s a matter of three weeks. No one knows what Trump will do next, especially Trump. As with Nixon, won’t be long that the public will hit the streets en masse. Politicians will buckle and dump Trump just as he dumped Flynn in order to survive.
          The wall street cronies holding markets up with hope of tax cuts, deregulation for as long as possible. That dike will break as well sometime mid year following non delivery on promises in first 100 days

          1. ARends

            All that is possible to play out Jonsyl, just had to give Mac a crash course on some realities caught in his world BS we hear everyday from him, with some other realities of being uneducated and the BS everytime he comments. AS I have said I am not US but in South Africa and reseach news and see all US media BS checking realities. Trump’s reality surrounding him we still need to see as nobody want to give him a chance. I really dont care but with all the fake news of all the uneducated Clinton menions like to keep screaming rather than just keep to the markets on here..as I listen to the ignorance of what they actually know as sheep following the wolves to the slaughterhouse. It reminds me of Hosea 4:6
            My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge;
            because you have rejected knowledge,..
            Media has become so bad being owned by the elite 90% is BS and no one fact check drowning in media BS as puppets to the corrupt. All the truth is out there with proof in every case.

            Mac, This is the last, please keep your politics now at home. You just demonstrate your ignorance and actually your stupidity by your ignorance of BS blabbering

  31. ARends

    Interesting another pointer that we at the height of market optimism that has approx lag of market crash by 10 months to history events. Month after month diverse proof of what’s to come in so many forms of proof I read in underlying signs hidden by FED BS and stats. How its going to play out we hear a different story of how to work the market….Gold is most people’s play with others that diverse. The question is when to get out of the mines and if they will dump with gold and if Gold may also dip..what do you do with cash out of maket in the risk of instututions going…dam?
    http://www.elliottwave.com/Economy/Heres-What-Precedes-Every-Recession-by-10-Months?sc_camp=450B04EEA21746BE90FE2F52EC0A2FAB

  32. ARends

    In the 12 times over the last 80 years when the Fed has tightened like this, the stock market has fallen into a bear market.

    The Fed raised rates in December 2015, then again in December 2016 — and the Fed has promised three more rate hikes in 2017 to counter Trump’s “pro-growth” policies.

    Another interest rate hike by the Fed would trigger this rule in 2017. Yet it is U.S. long-term Treasury bonds, particularly relative to the Dow, that have now become extremely dangerous.

    The following chart illustrates a ratio of the relative strength of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond compared to the Dow 30
    Very interesting graph https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/#inbox/15a43716c5976ea9?projector=1

  33. ARends

    This relative strength ratio is now at record-low levels, even more than we saw ahead of the 2000 and 2008 recessions, when the stock market fell into vicious bear markets.

    Since the presidential election, this ratio has reached the lowest level in over 20 years, signaling extreme “bubble” danger.

    If U.S. Treasuries continue to plunge and the Fed keeps pumping up the Dow, get ready for the next housing bust and recession, as soaring mortgage rates duplicate the financial crisis of 2008.

  34. ARends

    Banks now have over $242 trillion in derivatives. For example, Goldman Sachs has over $45 trillion in derivatives against $880 billion in assets. Keep in mind the entire U.S. GDP was $18 trillion in 2015.

    Yet it has been Goldman Sachs’s own stock that has led this Trump rally, along with reforms that look to be at least several quarters away from being a reality.

    Then there is this: The “Three Steps and a Stumble” Rule.

    It argues that should the Federal Reserve raise the discount rate three times in succession, a bear market in stocks follows!

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