The next leg up in a new daily cycle for the precious metals has begun. Silver is breaking away above its 200 dma with little resistance now until it reaches $19. Gold is approaching its 200 dma and once it breaks through that resistance is expected to top somewhere above $1300+.
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Silver as well as Gold sure look awesome this morning …puzzling why miners were being held back tho… once again long is still the card to be holding …
I explained it in the video.
Yes sorry Gary u did thank you
$XAU on daily chart has CCI has entered into a Sell Signal- crossing -100, closing near -116. When the CCI crosses back up over -100 and above 0 and 10MA would trigger a buy signal. JNUG usually follows similar moves of $XAU. This time is a little different with CCI on JNUG has been drifting down towards 0 on the CCI crossing below 0 would be a Sell Signal indicating that it is on delay… but following $XAU. CCI Cross Down below 0 might lead JNUG down near 50 ma. In the Past year + CCI activated Sell Signal -100 have quite often lasted more than days of hard selling with CCI going -300 (not expecting that much) but $XAU is battling the 200 MA, but still above the 50 MA *** Now take a look at CCI on $XAU on Weekly and you see the $XAU is in good shape. I am cautiously Bullish. Day Traded JNUG twice this week. I am done trading ERX its weekly CCI has gone below 0 and on the Day chart CCI rise just past CCI 0 and then rolls over, the last 2 rallies failed get CCI +100. I almost would not be surprised if we had a Black Swan event on Monday- big sell off (my weekend fantasy :-))
Yepp things are looking good going forward, but is it a new bull or just a bear rally?
I have to figure that one out. There is a very nice Fractal present in GDXJ that predicts a high months from now. But it’s been leaked to the public so it could break any time.
When you’ve learned that cycles/circles/waves/swirls/Fib/fractals/Pi/Phi is the Core for markets and charts, you could almost use the market as an ATM machine.
The problem is, if I present charts and go public about such info, fractals will break into subfractals and subWaves hard to interpret. Thats why I kepp my “mouth” shut most of the time 🙂
I agree with Gary completely about the miners. I don’t see any other reason why the miners would be trading lower than they did when gold was in the high 30’s. If bankers start buying we should get a huge rally, hopefully today.
If miners were being purposely held down shouldn’t there have been volume spikes yesterday, volumes lower than average?
Maybe the volume was not impressive yesterday, But did you see what happened exactly at 3:59pm yesterday? JNUG was trading at around 11:50 and suddenly plummeted on high volume to 11.12. If that is not manipulation I don’t know what is.
Price was testing BO.
Good morning,
Gary, thanks for the video.
As a note the January 2015 miners ultimate drop, was likely not produced by the bankers. It did coincide with a further SM drop. Gold did not follow that SM drop.
Good trading to all.
Finally, the explosive move day has arrived. Dollar finally rolled, gold and silver explode. Nice video Gary. In bull markets surprises come to the upside. Those shorting the last few days are on the wrong side again and should give plenty of fuel to the miners. AG especially.
dboz
looks like you r incorrect…
Boss, you better go and check how the bear ETF’s DUST and JDST performed today before coming to wrong conclusions. Not that I knew this was going to happen….I didn’t. But we got reasonable performance given the poor showing in sales of mining shares quite in spite of golds run.
I set two limit orders to by NUGT at $12 and at $11.90.
Let us see if they are served at the 6:00 AM spike.
I will say, premarket volume is rather low so far.
So this might be a bull trap?
Or it will close the gap later?
I believe to my chart, Gold next target 1277-80 completing ab=cd at fib 0.618 before wave weekly pullback to 1248. $ double top busy H&S and top of 2005 channel that can drop to about 84 as it increased from 2014 to 2015. SM seems is about to make its debut and the fat lady is about to sing on curtain call. Gold pull back from 1280 might be short lived if all comes tumbling down. JPYUSD break resistance (I use with same directional as gold busy rise) Yen is about to drop with few proper resistances with just over 4% to next proper fib as this long term fib and resistance will now be broken according to my tech chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MiUz5BBU/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/r8PZ3azX/
I would say gold targets at worse case considering other events!
No big spike at 8:00 AM so the orders were not served. I will let them in place for a bit as there was a second spike the other day.
This activity is very suspicious. On a regular day, a spike in gold like this would have made the miners go up huge with lots of volume. The big boys are not buying yet. Probably waiting for retail to get tired and sell them their shares cheap. I will just hold for a few weeks until the cycle in gold is done, the miners will eventually follow and I will make big gains.
Gold going much higher. and once again Ped is WROOOOONNNNNNNNG !!!!!
Groan
Yes zbig. Ped, does not understand the tech do not work for gold
Cas when you look at the chart of gold graph over miners you will notice pattern and behaviour very different in resistance and miners bands of resistance it stay like consolidation. I would say pricing for miners are amended by gold staying over strong resistance and the accumulation of higher gold value for mine over period. You will see a gradual rise in beginning of 2015 compared to gold and also with the drop in price from Trumps win.
https://invst.ly/3c15j
Some people are just worthless at trading bull markets.
Like I said the vast majority of traders take 2-3 years before they even recognize that a bull market has begun.
Ped would be one of those types of “traders” for sure. Maybe he will conclude its a bull market, once gold is over $2000. He’ll probably short it all the way up.
Wake up you guys.
It’s 11:15 NYT and GDX is up .25% on pathetically weak volume of 13 million shares. Most of it selling btw. But its a bull market you say! Hmmm hmmmm. Tell that to the professionals who have clearly spoken already. Even the gold bugs are out of steam and can’t raise their blood pressure enough to get invested. And I just read this whole thread and didn’t see where anybody was making any big commitments. Maybe if you guys hold on long enough you can get your money back on the old portfolio.
I bought JNUG on December 23 and have more than tripled my money so far. Under-performance of the miners can turn on a dime and is not predictive. You make your money in only a handful of days during the daily up cycle, and if you are out of the market on those days than you make nothing.
I’ve been making money every week on JNUG. Mostly swing trades. This Week only 2 day trades to limit Risk. I don’t like gaps… in particular gap up’s. The Weekly CCI indicate that $GOLD and $XAU. But not for nothing this Gap n Crrap- roll over get annoying. But Hey ERX has been choppy just like JNUG. I really want to see a big Sell Off in the Indexes and see where support develops… So I am primary in Wait n See mode. I appreciate your post Ped- p
Wow but Gold is flying, just about to hit 1260 and miners are on pot, slurred speech and dragging their feet…”Dude…whats the rush..be cooool, we need to grab a bite and something to wet gob, man”
What the hell is goin on? Gold is at 1260 and miners can’t even go above todays high! I’m pissed
“Yesterday’s high* Gdx cannot even get to 25!!
We haven’t even opened yet, much less closed. How can anyone know what the miners are going to do today?
Jeees you guys are hopeless.
Cmon Gary gold is 10 points above yesterday and Gdx still can’t break yday high in premarket. That is crap and shows weakness. I don’t subscribe to the ideas of banks accumulating. Miners need to get a move on!
I’ll say it again. Before this rally is over the miners are going to at least test the summer highs.
Not a chance in a 1000
For today it appears $12.1 for NUGT is a bargain so I got 1K shares more for a total of 3K shares.
UVXY is now at $23.4. We missed it!
We were talking of it when it was at $20.00
GDX’s current intermediate cycle looks nothing like “the baby bull” — far more subdued.
2016: GDX smashes thru the 200 day SMA. So does gold. GDX in record time.
2017: GDX lolly gags on up to the 200 day SMA and decides to squat there for the entire month of February. Gold stares at the 200 day SMA for a couple of weeks then decides to maybe give it a go.
This intermediate rally is clearly weaker than last time gold & GDX rallied out of their respective yearly cycle lows!
That’s because it’s not a baby bull anymore. We are now in the adolescent stage of the bull market. This stage will last for several years.
During this stage gold will slowly grind back up to test 1900. Then when we finally breakout above that we will have about a year to a year and a half where price just goes absolutely nuts. Minimum target $5000-$10,000.
Adolescents are known for being impetuous, to say the least — not subdued.
and the S&P……??????????
All the efforts to keep the market propped up have just resulted in stretching price way too far above the 200 DMA. Now there is going to be tremendous pressure to regress back to the mean.
These idiots will just never learn.
Don has been shorting the SM.
Hopefully the SM will crash hard.
This second cycle should deliver some nice gains. As we’ve seen many traders are still stuck in the bear market mindset so they are either on the wrong side of the market, or they will again be late to the rally. That means there will be lots of fuel during this cycle in the form of traders having to chase price higher.
Any reversal day or under performance day will be viewed as evidence of a top or bull trap. It won’t be, but it will keep lots of traders on the sidelines or even worse they will try to pick a top too early.
I’ve seen this hundreds of times.
Like I said some people are good at trading bear markets, and some are good at trading bulls. Few are good at both. I’m pretty good at trading bull markets, but I don’t even try to trade the short side. I’m terrible at it.
It’s so fun being a gold bull. There are so very few people who understand how or when to be a gold bull, which is totally different than being a stock general equity bull.
If the miners are healthy NUGT should get to $13.00 today.
I still think for some reason that miners may have some more down draft before a rally in to April… we could see a flash down then a rally….
NUGT behaving like a wet noodle. No oomph. Miners badly under performing.
Gold will end the day in the red, with the Dow green. I think we have an interim top here for gold.
Someone is trying to put the brakes on big time. Gold flushed, miners not even moving. No volume at all in the miners so far. I was expecting a pop, not at the open. Now with the quick price drop, everyone will be scared to buy. If we drop back down below 1250 and 18.20, not sure what will happen. Major take down right now.
Seems that the big money is on BITCOIN and no real interest in PM’s any longer.
big money on bit coin? your kidding right? The biggest money on the planet is in gold, not bitcoin. Central banks.
If the stock market takes a dive, as I expect it will, the miners will de-couple from gold and silver and go down with the market. I am still long silver and platinum but except for my penny collection of mining specs, I have been avoiding the miners. I still believe the stock market holds the best promise for out sized gains on the downside for the next several weeks.
When have the miners ever decoupled from the price of gold for more than just a few days?
I don’t know how traders have gotten this idea as it’s never happened in history as far as I can tell.
Exactly Gary. And since miners lead gold then what does that tell you? Hint: Miners are going down. HUI has fallen about 6% since it double topped a week ago. Does it even make sense that gold can stay elevated for much longer? What you were saying in another post was basically that gold was going to pull the stocks up but that pretty much disregards the existing bearish technicals on the miners. So I am assuming we are only seeing an overshoot on gold. The pattern is one of exhaustion, not green sprouts dead ahead.
Check the Weekly Charts $XAU and $Gold for 2 years. Take a look a Week $XAU down for 3 weeks vs Gold. Last year $XAU out performed gold. Miners Do Not Always follow Gold Step by Step. ***At some point I would expect GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, JNUG to catch up with gold. But we have some strange stuff going on like Gold n Indexes finishing in the green…
Funny stuff, the hidden hands are strong…
My basket of miners is barely green now. About to roll over to red. Amazing.
Gary is now full swing into his cocky and condescending mode….. not a good sign.
You should have paid attention when we were at the bottom 2 months ago.
We’ve already made more money in 2 months than most really good traders make in 5 years.
We locked up that profit and are now in conservative mode for the rest of the intermediate cycle. We’ll get crazy leveraged again at the summer ICL. For now we will just ride the rest of this intermediate cycle up in unleveraged funds with a reasonable stop to protect against giving back any gains.
oh cmon Don…. Gary is a nice man…
GLD and SLV are both at or above their Bollinger bands.. .. Let’s give them some time to digest recent big gains before we start jumping to bearish conclusions..
(upper Bollinger Bands)
If DCL i complete, price should be moving up with some strength. May be Gary is overoptimistic ?
Another failed take down attempt? Bought right up.
The morning weakness was just a result of another stock market intervention.
It would help the metals if stocks could break free and deliver a normal correction. I have my doubts that will be allowed to happen ahead of the SOTU though.
Sorry Gary, you are just too sure of yourself and that makes me nervous. Accordingly, I have sold one half of my silver positions moments ago.
LOL!!!
i am positive we are going to \natural gas under $2.50 so I will wait before jumping in. The expected rebound looks like it is exhausted.
Argonaut Gold dive 11% down…., what a suckyy
gld up over the week, gdx down over the week. Go figure!
Miners not being held down, fear of SM major correction holding down everything except etfs betting on reversal. I know, dont fight fed, but im thinking pressure is being applied and correction needed so minors in la la land. Im in correction mode.
Alexus slash and burn in progress
Just one word to describe GDX’s behaviour since its move to the 200 day SMA:
Tepid
Just wait…
Watch the markets tank in afternoon, get ready for the big scorch. Do u want to hold over the weekend????
Another sucker dip in SM to trap premature shorts?
Nope, not premature, scorch is smoning, the embers just getting going.
If you go back to 2016, the bull started out very similar to 2017. 2016 HUI went up fast initially, digested gains with a upward trending correction from 2/12/16-3/24/16 (1.5 months), then took off for the next month. This leg bottomed in late 2016 and went up fast initially as well and did the same exact upward trending correction from 1/5/17-2/22/17(again 1.5 months). Some of my buy orders got filled on GDXJ under $40 a couple days ago, but I sold them the next day at a profit due to weak performance. I am still waiting for a sharp (but in the grand scheme of things small) drop in the miners to scare the crap out of the gold bugs. Around 199 HUI.
False, as noted above.
Gary… can you recall during the last big precious metal run, if the general market moved conjunctively with the metals?
BAC pulling back nicely lately. Hoping to add more option calls over the next week or two. We’re getting a phenomenal opportunity to buy on a pullback. BAC will be much higher over the next few months.
Up huge on my SLV option calls. The fun is just beginning..
TLT option calls up huge in my virtual trade account.
GDX appears to be forming a triangle off the Thursday morning high.
Wave D appears to be in progress (up)
ssri is the star performer today, outshining so-called 3x etfs: nugt and jnug.
NUGT/miners are on divergence with Gold.
Why?
Today I pocketed $1.15K to close another good week.
I am leaving the 2K NUGT shares hopefully the miners will not crash.
I am done for today.
Good trading to all.
The miners are much farther extended to the upside versus the metals. They are much higher above their 200 WMA’s versus the metals just breaking above their 200 WMA’s. Metals may need to catch up here.
Bought tvm @22.12.
And, sold half of gdxj. I had bought this amount earlier this week. Not bad for a couple of hours of work.
I will buy back gdxj on Monday. When luck favors, every trade works!
Here is a post that I sent out last night, indicating that the SPX should be very close to topping in this Trading Cycle based on Time and overbought indicators. Check out my last chart on UVXY.
https://surfcity.co/2017/02/23/stock-market-cycle-update/
Hi, Surf. Good post. Uvxy has crossed above 10 day ema many times before only to make new lows. Need confirmation.
Yes, and I am not suggesting anyone should trade UVXY here at all. I just start to watch it more closely when the SPX enters my timing band to find a cycle high.
Hi , Surf. Indeed. Inverse etfs just perking up are: uvxy, qid and tza. sdow, spxu are still struggling to lift up their nose. At some point there could be some kind of decline. When? Who knows? SM keeps repeating the same trick. Mid day sucker pull backs which are quickly bought. This game has been going on for a long time. At some point, it may stop.
$25 up in gold and $.40 up in silver in two days and minimal to no reward for miners. This is tough. Lots of risk for no reward.
Volume is putrid.
I’ve seen this many times in the past.
The day traders and impatient retail traders sell because the move doesn’t occur when they want it to. Then one day we wake up to a big move higher and they end up missing it because they weren’t in. And they can’t buy because price is now overbought.
Very well put. What a predicament?
Thanks. I needed that!
Getting ready to buy more NUGT. Lets see if GDX can hit 24
I’ll wait till it gets to 22.44 or just below…
Load that boat!
March is seasonally weak for the miners (as is jun-jul
Just a great day. LOL Look at that DOW ramp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WRONG check the facts
Bought some NUGT here
My work shows that the Gold and Miners are potentially on very different counts here. GDX just had a very short 18 day Trading Cycle and is not attempting to confirm this DCL.
https://surfcity.co/2017/02/22/gold-and-miner-cycle-update/
Hi, Surf, great post. Not a cycle expert. Pm stock universe is badly fractured. Senior miners are basing, some leading juniors struggling to enter trending mode, the rest still have to base and find their legs before miners can get going up on a decent scale.
Buckle up we are in a giant roller coaster going forward, BIG BIG swings are coming later this year and into 2018, hint watch the bondmarket closely.
maybe it’s wise to look at DJ transportation as well, a prediction for the future of DJIA ?
How about the Goldmarket, a top next year or a bottom? Is a crisis heading our way a currency crisis for the reserve currency. any questions and few answers, but it’s going to be fun 🙂
I am worried about my 2K NUGT shares.
Gary might be right.
But gold may retrace and NUGT can easily go back to $9.5.
Gary strategy of not being in the leveraged funds right now could be used.
Daily’s are overbought for gold.
Doubtful. Don’t forget the US dollar is now rolling over into a head and shoulders and is headed down. SM is exhausted, it’s been toppy for far too long. Too much uncertainty and a rate hike in March isn’t happening either.
I wouldn’t bet on it yet. Dollar is getting ready to test 111.5 Y support with a probable break- stop run before reversing. Expect a gold spike through 1260 to run stops then a reversal.
Red day for me.
Gold and silver breaking out, GDX/GDXJ have beautiful innverse head and shoulder charts on the daily and the crooks are playing there crooked games on a friday. No way I’m selling to these crooked manipulative banksters!!!!
Let’s see if they buy up before 4pm today. Hmm….
If I did not know better I would say that the pro’s who run these markets are painting gold to sucker in buyers even as they are busy unloading their shares into strengthening metals prices. How else do you explain JDST running up 6% today versus gold gaining more than 30 dollars in the last 4 trading days?
Even more odd, but JDST is going parabolic into today’s close and it looks like traders are already betting that gold’s price appreciation won’t be sustained into next week as they bet against mining shares. I’m as surprised as anyone here that my position is still in the black despite golds solid recent gains.
Maybe I just got lucky this time. It kind of feels that way since my metals model was broken yesterday and I was left shaking my head in disbelief as metals powered higher. Needless to say I am delighted that it still went my way.
Horseshoes baby!
Nice stop run…..crooks
Awful. GLD/SLV and miners going their separate ways.
Like Gary inadvertently said the big boys are running the stops and loading up, gold and silver are breaking out.
Yeah if not now, then fireworks on Monday?
I just sold all my 3X silver holdings
I see better opportunities for the money by shorting the stock market.
Just bought 500 SOSX @ 8.55 Now holding 1000 units
You think Trump State of the Union will torpedo the markets? I wonder if that’s what the market is thinking too? Seems like everyone is trying to adjust to the unexpected and unpredictable. If that is even possible. Just a thought here but if stocks correct the dollar will almost certainly go up. And that means gold will fall back.
I mentioned this a few days ago but i doubt anyone (including Gary) listened.
Miners LEAD the metals. So be warned everyone. Miners are telling us gold has a bad day coming.
As I pointed out in the video, the miners don’t always lead the metal.
They didn’t lead at the bottom last year and they didn’t lead at the top last summer.
Calling Option Trader
Is today big weakness in gold miners a major concern for the direction next week of gold and miners?
Thanks
BOL, honestly, I’ve just been following charts on silver.
I would think that the miners should follow the metals’ lead. But I’m not seeing the same bullish set ups and confirmations for miners.
There are times during a bull run, that metals and miners perform differently. I can’t advise you on anything but what I see in silver.
Today, I’m very excited. I got what I was looking for..
I have both a weekly and daily set up confirmation for Silver.
This confirms the monthly set up I disclosed, a few weeks back.
Silver is ready to go much higher over the following months ahead.
Glad to hear it!
SIlver can still pull back here.. I’m in this for the long haul. I don’t look at the day to day gyrations. In this bull run, you need to hold on for dear life.
Yep agreed, That’s my view as well.
DOW ramp is truly comical.
Jesse at Jessescrossroadscafe has suggested that the broader stock market will be propped up until they can get out the IPO for Snap sometime in early March (haven’t seen a firm date yet). This seems likely to me too. I think the IPO may be more important to the market manipulators than the State of the Union address. Meanwhile, gold will probably not be allowed to go anywhere. Besides, the week leading up to the employment report is not usually a good one for gold, partly because of options expiry (though I think March is not a big month for options).
So I suggest that, even though Gary may be right about a new daily cycle starting, we may get a pull back in gold early next week and some further decline in the miners. Gold may stay range-bound between 1240 and 1260 for most of next week. I don’t think gold will take off to 1300 immediately.
I am inclined to tread carefully with the miners for now. No leveraged funds for me.
DOW, I am speechless.
Whats comical is that people are still shorting….
What a week. A $20 rise in gold and miners end in the red. Anyone guess that scenario?
Nope. I definitely did not see that coming. I doubt anyone else did either. Funny as hell though with every saying WTF all at once.
Yes you certainly did call this. Another analyst, which I subscribe to, has also been expressing a lot of concern with the divergence between the miners and metals as of late and I expect his weekend update to show a deeper correction forecast than expected as a result. As bullish as I am long term with the PMs (especially physical) I exited all PM positions today, SLV, USLV and JNUG (which I was holding before starting to post here so didn`t comment about). I do think I will be leaving some cash on the table with SLV but I think I will be able to get back in at a lower entry, as well as JNUG. The miners do lead but I have always watched silver and I don`t feel it`s trading “giddy” enough for a break out , in fact kind of tired. So for now cash is king for the weekend. Feels kinda good!!
I did take a modest position in JDST about an hour before the close. not betting the ranch on it, just the old beaten down chewed up dog house.
Gary did say 1 – 2 more days of weakness to get everyone bearish. I think he will be right. GDX looks like it will gap down Monday and maybe retest or even undercut the 23.8 lows. Gold definitely looks ready to sell off from here and im wondering if GDX can get to 23 now. What I dont like is gold has gone up 20 points an miners still at low. This might be saying that even if gold goes to 1300 we might not retest those summer highs like Gary has said. The run up might be less spectacular
Yeah, I am bearish for sure now. Thought about pulling the plug today. These last two days have caused great irritation and frustration. I am just barely in the green overall now after these past two weeks from buys last September (1 of 4 accounts). I do not feel like going majorly in the hole again on hopium as this lack of upside in the face of huge metals movement is a killer. Two weeks of grinding sideways for the metals and then on the big break, to lose money. Stunned. Still 100% long, still holding. Bad day for paper, good day for physical.
I will try to buy more miners if I can come up with the cash. It was a bad day but when u check it out looks more like a bull flag. Also the daily stochastic is almost oversold if that means anything
that is very possible
Daily gold with RSI at 5. Obviously overbought, retrace to trendline at $1235 maybe…..
https://invst.ly/3c540
On the other hand gold closing above support at $1255 is positive, possible move and continuation to $1270…… and the gdx is pretty oversold. I have highlighted the Past recent rsi lows, possibly not far to go…..
https://invst.ly/3c540
sorry correct link
https://invst.ly/3c56e
The ESF has conditioned all that if they can’t whack the metal price down, they then take down the miners and this conditions all that the metals price is coming down in the next day or two.
If its any consolation it looks like NUGT will bounce back Monday.
———————————–
In other news….and this story is just too much to ignore. There is a province in China according to an article from Zerohedge today that has overcooked its books to the extent that GDP growth had to be restated at negative 25 percent!!
And then ZH wonders what all of China would look like it every province has been overstating growth that much.
Well I wonder too since a couple quarters of negative growth usually means you have a recession on your hands. But minus 25% would mean they are already in a full-out depression. So forget all that BS about the country turning in year after year numbers in excess if 6% annualized.
Once we start to calculate the regions into the national data it is simply IMPOSSIBLE that the current reading is anywhere near truthful, if even possible. Quite a few very smart analysts had already stated that Chinese growth was at best a couple percent tops but nobody I have read guessed it might already be deeply negative.
I think this would qualify as a Black Swan therefore since nobody saw it coming. And I am sure we will be hearing a great deal more about it in the coming weeks. Could China be in the midst of something much worse than a garden recession?
Curious minds need to know.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-24/data-fraud-chinese-province-suggests-local-gdp-numbers-much-20-overcooked
I love it! Everyone is getting scared
The COT’s for gold look pretty good right now. Looks like lots of room to run.
However silver is another story. There is quite a divergence taking place between gold and silver which is unusual. By the next COT report silver will be close to all time highs with the commercials being short. This has never ended well for speculators. Will this time be different?
WSJ- Check out Turk’s article on King World News. Discusses silver breakout.
Thanks – I read the article.
The price rise in silver has been slow and steady from the December bottom. This is a bit unusual for silver since generally on a rally you will have some rather large range days.
The commercials are almost at record short levels in silver. They are masters at what they do. They start selling during the night when the volume is light and force the price down. Once they get the price down the longs in the futures market are forced to sell. Its possible the market could get away from them, however the chance of that happening are very slim. Any time there is even a remote chance of something like this happening their buddies at the NYMEX will raise the margins which also causes forced selling. They have a pretty good setup for making $$$$$.
If we could get the Chinese to take a break from Bitcoin and get interested in silver that may change things.
Attention Miner Bugs:
Not all miners went down today. GOLD (ticker symbol) actually ended the day in the green. But the better news is that GOLD is in the midst of a bullish confirmation set up that looks very powerful. I’ll know by Tuesday (last day of the month) if this confirmation is complete.
GOLD is one of the trend setters for the miners, so don’t throw in the towel yet. Let’s see what happens on Monday and Tuesday for GOLD.
Indeed, OT. Rand gold is the only major pm stock moving higher in step with gld. Rest could catch up in the next few days.
I don’t recall this much of a miner underperformance during a metals runup.
Feb 24 Gold’s Rally: Key Tactics For Profits Morris Hubbartt 321gold
Feb 24 Gold-Futures Buying Yet to Start Adam Hamilton 321gold
There has been a lot of talk today about gold rising and miners not confirming the move up.
Last June 10th of 2016 we had a similar divergence between gold stocks and gold where gold was on the rise but miners started to slump instead of follow. Subsequently (a few days later in mid June), gold dropped almost 60 dollars and thus confirmed the GDX/GLD divergence as a shorting opportunity on the stocks. The good news at that time was following the decline gold roared back to life and soared over a 100 dollars tip to top in a single day.
Do you recall that? Well if you don’t it was all a result of the Brexit vote that put a rocket under metals.
And will anything like it happen again? Who the hell knows. All I can tell you as a person who follows gold history is that the last time we had a major divergence between gold and the miners the bears who did not take profits quickly got utterly destroyed by holding on too long.
And the time elapsed between the appearance of the divergence and gold spiking 100 dollars was 14 days.
Hmmm, anything big happening in the next two weeks?
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/market-moves/gold-races-to-two-year-high-as-investors-seek-refuge-from-brexit
I think Trump is causing a lot of uncertainty. We might be only one “Tweet” away from a $100 spike in gold and a $20 up move in oil.
The commercials are the shortest they have ever been in oil and the price stays in this narrow range day after day. I think the shorts are afraid to push the market lower due to the uncertainty.
Miners are all set now to drop at least 15 – 20%… may be they will rise up for the French elections…. then down again…. looks like silver broke the intermediate trend line so maybe it can go down now as all technical traders are in… random thoughts…
Just realized Trump is set to give a speech Tuesday. That’s probably why people are holding back. Thatll be the catalyst if nothing happens monday. We’re out of the low now guys. Speculating will only make you crazy…
As per manipulation we had two days with NUGT getting to $11 as bear traps, then today a bull trap, and back to $11.25.
Overall is a master bear trap.
Why?
Because TIP has broken out up! TIP leads the action. Gold is following.
Despite gold’s daily overbought, the weekly is not.
For next week we may have either a doji candle or a big green candle.
The miners should follow.
Buy miners with confidence but be ready to dump them as by the middle or end of March they will run out of gas and adhere to the established channel.
Becoming a crystal ball reader is contagious!
I’m good with that.
I withdraw:
“Buy miners with confidence but be ready to dump them as by the middle or end of March they will run out of gas and adhere to the established channel.”
do u come here to get Gar’ys insight or… offer genuine insight of yr own…or.. be an AH…???
Tulip,
That is a good question.
It has been about three months since I joined the SMT site.
I have benefited from the comments from all of you.
I would not be non-genuine in my comments, while they can be wrong.
I am really here to make money, have fun with all of you, while honoring Gary as the host.
We learn from him organization, being prudent, to aim at a global view, and his cycle/sentiment approach.
A good trader is someone who honors reality. So I would not misrepresent it to the best of my ability.
Many of us are spending many hours here; our time is quite valuable to waste it. So I am getting the best I can from all of you, and try to offer the best I can. Since I joined the site I am doing well in my trading but do not want to pretend that I am very talented, smart, or bright. I wish the site to become greater so as to every one benefit more. I appreciate the comments here. I do realize that many spent way too many hours looking for clues and information and they freely share it. Take for example Pedestrian who spends lots of time. An analyst with his skills would be paid more than 6 figures, and we get his insights for free! The daily TA analysis by Dday is valuable, and even we have the insights of TerryWG who is a professional for free. So I am appreciative and respect of all of you.
Just read the views from vectorvest today. The djia is fully valued. I think we’re reaching a critical point here. I’m thinking Trumps speech could lead so the beginning of a downtrend. Would be great for PMs. Maybe that’s why no money went into miners today. People still scratching their heads ? Not sure which way to go? Speculation but not unfounded.
By comparing gold, gdx, and nugt with the uprising in 2016 then it appears that GDX is on track.
However, NUGT is way behind with respect to its performance in 2016 and with gold.
So the apparent lag of GDX is perhaps because it overdid is rising and is just leveling.
And the substantial lag of NUGT is perhaps because of the fees the 3X funds charge.
It shows on this sights sentiment Gold 74% bull. Now that concerns me now! I am heavily in jnug expecting to it have popped, but it did not and kept it. mmmm not sure if this is going down with another month. Then I saw the new sentiment that could call for that scorch and hope I could sell it after some lift , but we just have drop that seems to be flag fo amovement….hahaha. OooooH bipolar her we come. Choices..choices