134 thoughts on “FOLLOW UP

  1. HomerJ

    Well it’s a damned good thing the GDX SLV trade is in place, this way we can all watch as premiums disappear.

  2. Option Trader

    Today’s close for the metals, following the Fed minutes, holds far more emphasis than the consolidation going on this morning.

  3. Pedestrian

    JDST just went bullish. Quite a nice spike there. Just when I was starting to lose focus too.

    Lord, watching metals has been like watching water boil the last while. Total snooze. There must have been a leak about the Fed minutes though since this is odd timing. I suppose we can guess a rate hike is on the table live for the next FOMC because that’s usually what kills gold anymore.

    1. Gary Post author

      On the contrary. The last two rate hikes saw the dollar top and gold take off to the upside.

      Based on past history the most bullish thing that could happen for gold would be another rate hike.

      The odds aren’t good for a March hike though. Only 17% and I don’t believe the Fed has ever hiked with the odds under 75%.

      1. ras

        No idea about rate hike or whatever around Mid March. Right now, it is a hodgepodge in the pm sector. gld/slv flat, usd feigning to dip without much follow through, majority of pm stocks in DT on intra day time scale. No idea whether a dcl has arrived or may arrive soon or stretched further (manipulation?). Likely, more downside in jnug/nugt/gdx/gdxj for a while? A few more bounces in dust/jdst?

        Too much cerebration did not really help us. Did it? We were taking about 3-5 weeks into April or thereabouts, weekly trend line kiss at 1300 and weekly stochastics getting OB, dcl at rsi 5 getting OS, etc. It could still happen that way eventually, may be not on our time table.

        It is rather difficult to move the profit needle significantly in the pm sector right away when price tripled in 7 weeks (jnug). Price needs to dip to a sufficiently attractive level to interest new buyers and reset sentiment.

        It is best to take one day at a time and take whatever opportunities trending price gives during market hours.

    1. Pedestrian

      Bill, it is not odd at all. Miners usually lead the metals. Get that right and you will appreciate that mining stock is telling you a soft period for gold and silver have arrived. There will certainly be price declines across the precious metals group. So the multi-week rising cycle has finally ended and the market has spoken.

      Why do you think the smart money is dumping stock right now?

      They are getting the hell out of Dodge before the dumb money catches on.

      Gary sold. Why didn’t you?

      1. bill

        Oh stop troll…Dont think I use anything but my own brain here for trading …I don’t follow others advice…And you called my arrogant lol…typical Liberal.

  4. Option Trader

    When you know how to follow charts and don’t let the day to day rubbish bother you… is when you start to make the big money. I look forward to Friday’s close,

  5. Pedestrian

    Well it looks like GDX, GDXJ, HUI and XAU have all taken an appropriate swan-dive the last few trading days. They have all moved down significantly more than gold itself since the 16th of the month. And none of it was really a surprise as I was warning.

    So to Hamish, Zbigkid, Tulip, Vin, BGInvestor, Macman and Golilocks (who keeps wanting to hang a pork chop off my neck), you might come back and admit I was correct after all and your obnoxius objections were based on pretty much nothing other than just disagreeing with me for spite.

    Gary listened and sold though (good for you Gary!). Great timing too.

    Maybe you other bugs will recall my post disagreeing that gold itself had much more upside. Or that the XAU was already at resistance and set for a fall. I wrote the following a few days back:
    ———————

    “Please Gary, just try to listen to me for a second even if you think you will disagree. The XAU is almost precisely at the peak of its falling channel right now today. We are going down and the recovery period is more distant than you might imagine.

    Just run a couple simple channel lines on that XAU chart. I would encourage you to not box yourself into the idea that miners are only due for a modest pullback followed by a big run higher. Rather, it could be a considerable setback and the decline could last as long as the next three months”.

    ————
    So take that bugs!

    1. Option Trader

      Oh do you crack me up Ped. You’re going to try to take credit for healthy consolidation from weeks upon weeks of strength, and you think you called the top? Which top is this? The Metals top or The BAC top you called?
      BTW, I am amused with the frustration going on with the Silver shorties, today. The poor things keep smacking into a brick wall.

        1. Pedestrian

          Hey Bill, I already told you when Alan Greenspan starts pumping gold that’s your signal to get the hell out. Same as when Gartman starts boosting a stock its usually a major sell. Some of you guys just never learn though ( mean you specifically).

    2. terrywg

      Ped, I am in agreement with you about gold. XAUUSD has retraced its sub-wave i up. A failure to close higher on the weekly would also signal a loss in momentum β€” and I don’t foresee any technical buyers unless 1250 can be breached. We all know that the big boys are very fickle and flow of funds could easily move elsewhere. GDX also showing negative divergences in its oscillators.

      HOWEVER, I am pretty sure that USD is topping here especially against the euro. We could see USDJPY test 115 but I am bearish on the pair in the MT. So, unless there are some significant divergences in the correlation between XAUUSD and EURUSD/USDJPY then only either analysis can be correct. Would appreciate your thoughts!

      1. Pedestrian

        I was just writing about a correlation break on the prior thread that I thought was pretty interesting. Gold is moving with dollars fairly directly (last I looked). That’s a big deal if it keeps happening so your idea that dollars need a pullback also implies gold goes down too.

        I have been watching DSLV. Take a look at this chart and ignore everybody who says not to chart with ETF’s because to a last man almost none of them know what they are talking about. I chart with them all the time and get good signals.

        http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=dslv

        Anyway, all you need to notice is that it has arrived at pretty good support and bounced. The upside implied tells us that metals (and particularly silver) could have a lengthy period of decline. DSLV is an inverse fund of course so it rises as silver falls. We are being warned in other words. But perhaps more importantly we might speculate on where this one tops out because that will represent the point in time silver once again turns bullish.

        Can’t recall who it was that bought a lot of silver calls the other day but it was a big mistake and this chart confirms that in my opinion.

        1. terrywg

          Ped, I have gone long EURUSD @ 1.0540 and spot gold @ 1233.80

          The problem with a break in correlations is that it happens only due to a drastic paradigm shift. I haven’t seen anything that would suggest this. Unless the charts confirm the break next week, I will follow my instincts and say that USD is due for a decline. I am a currency trader after all and that is where my expertise lies.

          1. terrywg

            although I must say because of your insistence on a decline in gold I have kept my stops very tight. My gold positions are currently in the money but I have put a stop at slightly below breakeven.

            Gold needs a higher weekly close (above 1243 preferably) before I can feel more comfortable with my long position.

          2. Pedestrian

            Sorry if I sound too negative. But I am not even slightly bullish metals here. The only thing I can add is that the pattern has (as usual) taken longer to play itself out than I first anticipated. But I don’t think I will be wrong in the assessment.

          3. dboz

            I am still very bullish. Today is actually healthy. Tames down the bulls and gives bears hope. That provides fuel when the shorts get squeezed and may be what we need to blast off. The dollar is in trouble and should start a slow painful decent to at least the 97-98 level. Gold and silver could just explode from here. The resistance is present but a short squeeze would give the juice to blow through with a rapid upwards move. I too think we are way drawn out longer than anticipated. If we don’t move up soon though, down is going to become more probable. Still holding full position to the long side.

  6. Hamish

    Cheerleading already? Very dangerous πŸ™‚

    Can you be clear that you are actually short metals / miners now?

      1. Pedestrian

        You know the problem with most of you gold bugs is you box yourselves into a corner and then can’t get out. You need to stay flexible to trade, not take positions and posture against the remarks of other people who leave commentary.

        You are stuck in your own trap now Hamish.

        If gold keeps going down you look like a damned fool. But if instead your approach was flexible you would be able to seize on that opportunity and trade in the other direction (IE…go short). But like most of you guys it is always pride that needs to prevail over profit.

        And that’s why you always get what you deserve.

  7. KHT

    All the poking and prodding and finger pointing going on…I don`t know, I trade best when I am able to try to keep as much of a market neutral stance as i can, not fall in love with my positions, and whether I agree or not with anyone elses analysis I give it its just due and if there is something that leads me to look with a different perspective, so be it, if not, I let it go, after all, I am the one who pulls the trigger on my trades. In other words, I do my best to check my emotions at the door when entering the trading arena.

    To me its not about being RIGHT (I told you so) It`s about making money!!

    1. Pedestrian

      Agree KHT. But I did remind them they would hear from me again when they started with all the blah-blah rhetoric the other day. None of them uses technicals but they all have an opinion, however misinformed it might be. Often its personal and involves pork chops!

      This correction has been in the making for awhile though. But some people just cannot see it. More ominously, a sell off in mining stock sometimes portends trouble coming in the equity markets and I am among those who think some sort of correction is not far off. I was expecting it this week but the pattern is running for another cycle and now its going to take just a little longer to complete.

      The end result will be the same in any case.

      1. dboz

        What exactly are you celebrating? Miners are down 3-4% today ahead of FOMC minutes? They do this every time. This is nothing more than a shake out of recent buyers while they get their shares stolen just like Gary says. They bought high and are selling low into the panic. Very few people will ever make a dime off this bull market. You make it sound like we just lost 20% or something on our way back to oblivion? It is a small dip. Gold is down 5-6 bucks and silver is down 5 cents. Hardly worth a panic. Wait until the end of the day before taking a victory lap. That said, are you buying here or are you waiting for sub 1100 to buy?

        1. Pedestrian

          It’s not the amount that matters. Its the technical break and the way the set up changed. Miners took a noticeable fall versus gold and when that happens you often need to act very quickly as it can run away from you in a few days.

          Miners lead metals.

          So a percentage divergence is what you grab on too. More so than the absolute amounts. Just check any chart of metals versus miners to see what I am referring too. Both on the upside and down its note worthy.

          You cannot afford to miss that kind of signal when it happens or your positions can go underwater quickly. It is no guarantee either but in this case with gold and silver topping after a long period of rise we are being warned of profit taking and I think that it will accelerate.

          1. Pedestrian

            Welcome Boss.

            Btw, NUGT is down 15% since last Friday so its certainly a healthy decline so far. I think most of the traders here who are heavy on the levered funds would have felt it.

            Gary recognized it early as well and I think he took the correct prescriptive action even if he arrived at the answer from a different angle. Does not matter as long as you don’t get caught in the fall.

            As he mentioned today, we are already verging on oversold but keep in mind that oversold conditions can run for weeks so that is no guarantee this is finished by a long shot.

            On a positive note, it does mean we can now look forward to the next bottom wherever it might be and get prepared to buy again when it arrives. There are quite a few good supports though so its difficult to predict where we bounce from next.

  8. ras

    Not a whole lot to think about and argue about. We can not argue with price. Immediate trend for pm stocks is drip, drip, drip, down until price meets rising ma 20 with nano meter bounces.. After that who knows? we will cross that bridge when we get there.

  9. Pedestrian

    Time to get short oil. The Canadian dollar is turning down and often leads WTI to the downside. At this time speculators are record long crude contracts. I am talking all-time record long here. It’s historical. And as you might imagine the Commercials are almost equally short.

    Check out the COTS on the lower half of this WTI chart. It’s a thing to behold how they are positioned. CDN typically tips us off about oils next direction. But of course, the dollar also trades inverse to oil which sets up an interesting dynamic if oil falls. Especially if gold is suddenly following USD.

    Hmmmmm. Trouble is brewing.

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=m1

  10. mags

    Hi All, I sold my mining stock trading positions on Friday last week. I am waiting for this correction to go deeper before I attempt to get long. I don’t use “leveraged etfs” because I am not a day trader. And, I don’t buy short positions, just not my style. I am patient and as this correction gets deeper, I am interested in a long position in GDXJ around $34/share. Here is my question…..financial site show that GDXJ has a yield of almost 4%, which seems interesting. I don’t understand how this ETF can pay such a generous dividend. Is it some kind of scam? Anyone have insight?

  11. bill

    Seems this is not the Pedestrian Blog funny I thought it was Gary’s maybe a bad link? We drop 9% which is nothing for a 3x ETF and this guy goes on a HEY LOOK EVERYONE i WAS RIGHT AFTER THREE MONTHS!!!!!

    LOOK AT ME EVERYONE!!!…pathetic truly.

    1. terrywg

      Bill, I’m going to drag this out everytime you start with your BS. How’re your “serious shares” at 12.43 looking? People like you are all talk and no action. All your real-time calls are absolutely WRONG.

      PS: am long gold and EURUSD again, after making $$ on the short-side while your positions just saw nothing but sideways action.

      bill
      February 7, 2017 at 7:29 am
      And as we see shorts getting creamed

      bill
      February 8, 2017 at 11:22 am
      Weak you say?
      https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/a/ARTIYzun.png
      https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/z/z06mTo6a.png
      So many left behind hoping praying wishing for a pull back. I know it may seem or feel like a top, but just wait you’ve seen nothing yet lol.

      bill
      February 9, 2017 at 9:33 am
      Lol just breaking balls Robert all good I added 300 @ 12.43 sitting on some serious shares

  12. tulip

    this is on
    usawatchdog….
    political AND market v relevant- must listen

    Steele says what is going on right now is simply β€œa battle to take down the Deep State.” There is lots of free information and analysis on RobertDavidSteele.com.

  13. Gary Post author

    We may have gotten the DCL on the FOMC minutes.

    I’ll need to see how tomorrow plays out.

    If so it was an exceptionally mild DCL with the RSI just barely triggering oversold.

    1. ras

      Gary, your specifications are met for xau. We still need to get back above ema 10 and switch to trending up mode on sub 1 hr interval charts. One day at a time.

    1. Pedestrian

      Not really Boss. This has not altered the pattern at all and could not even exceed today’s earlier highs. I would not buy this. As is often the case the Fed bounce will be reversed by tomorrow anyway so no celebrations would persuade me.

  14. Option Trader

    There are many shorts caught in a tizzyvhere, trying to figure out what to do…

    I say.. learn how to read charts suckas!

  15. Strike

    Celebrations of the gold market’s demise might be premature. Maybe, just maybe.
    If you believe in cycles there is more upside to be made.
    The only decision is what % leveraged vs straight up.
    Again, if you believe the ICH is not yet attained, you are in.

  16. Option Trader

    SLV trading at the top of a multi day bullish flagging pattern.

    It would be a nice treat to see it break out of this pattern…

    First we have to wait for the shorties to cover. Poor things…. probably down on their knees right now,

    This is a bull run.. not to be messed with.

  17. Robert

    I think gold bottomed today. Bought NUGT on the dip and holding. Will buy more if I need to on any further pullbacks. I think gold can hit 1280 now!

  18. bginvestor

    Ped,

    What’s ur position? Are u short? From what I read above, it suggests that ur waiting for the correction to go long gold.

    By the way, I bought Nugt at almost today’s lows.

    1. Pedestrian

      Short miners and short silver per chart linked above. The hourly’s on pm’s are rolling over. This may be a hold for some time if my idea about a metals correction bears out but I will play it by ear. I have a strong suspicion a market correction is near even if its only a minor decline. So a short on S&P to be added when the time is ripe.

  19. Option Trader

    If silver stays strong into the close, not only is this the 6th day of bullish candlestick behavior, it will be an intra day reversal that is clearing the 200 DMA.

  20. ras

    gld and gdx are not kicking in the same direction. Ditto slv and sil. Until this changes, it is hard to get excited about the pm sector, dcl or no dcl.

    1. Pedestrian

      Agree Ras. You really have to watch the moves some days. For example, the bounce back from today’s initial gold sell-off clawed its way back to 80% of the whole move yet GDX only came back 50 percent. Which means in other words that sellers used that Yellen bounce in gold at 2:00 pm to unload even more shares and thus confirm the bearish bias that already existed in the morning. Had one not bothered to examine the percent differences and look at the bahavior of mining stocks they may have left with the impression all was hunky dory and back to normal. But normal it is not. The trend is established directionally already.

  21. Strike

    Robert- I think we pause at 1275, the intersect of the previous YC downtrend line on the weekly. Good chart put up by Surf on his website. 1280 (actually 1281) is the 62% fib which I presume is your target.

    Nice catch BTW – outstanding patience.

  22. dboz

    If we can get the Chinese to give up on BITCOIN and move into silver and gold we would have broken out already.

  23. Pedestrian

    “There is a “moral duty” to taxpayers, President Trump says at White House budget lunch,
    “We must do a lot more with less.”
    “Our budget is absolutely out of control and in the future will reflect our priorities.”
    “The hiring freeze for non-essential workers will remain”.
    “We have enormous work to do on the national debt”
    “There will be “no more wasted money, we will spend in a careful way.”
    ————–Donald Trump

    OK, NOW I smell a market correction coming because those are all the wrong words to get markets juiced up and primed for another big rise. And if I did not know better I would add that he probably said all of it deliberately to cool things off and possibly even cause a correction. With Goldman Inc at the helm and probably writing Donald’s script you can bet this was no accident.

    Buckle up people.

    1. Emptyness

      Ped, I have to shake my head, because you and some other guys are trading gold with “chart pattern” – I can’t believe it ….. gold doesn’t take care of chart pattern. There is a narrow correlation to real interest rates, usd-index and specific events (for example the expectation of higher / lower fed rates, or political things like Brexit 2016, or danger of war).
      You smell a market correction. That would be very good for Gold. If there is more uncertainty, money flows to the “safe havens” – bonds and gold. Let’s look.

      1. Pedestrian

        Empytness, all I can do is observe what is happening and sometimes it does not jive with my other beliefs. But there is no point trying to shoe-horn my technicals that tell me gold and silver will decline against a backdrop that seems to imply the stock market will also correct. In general gold will rise if markets fall (but not always). It can be a pain to have conflicts and when in doubt just make the observation but don’t trade it unless there is actual fire behind the smoke. Until then its just a waiting game. Even golds decline so far is weak and putting me to sleep. Its all I can do to type this answer as I nod off at the screen!

      1. Pedestrian

        When the time is right I will certainly get long again. At the moment I am short miners and silver as already mentioned and that’s working out just fine since since the middle of February. As you know I still think there is more downside in the PM space. I am not always right but that’s what the technicals are telling me so I will go with the data as I see it.

        If any of you have not done so already then perhaps I can recommend an excellent site that I often use to confirm my ideas and get extra input. It is called Goldtent TA Paradise and there are some really awesome chartists who live over there.

        They represent both bearish and bullish views and you will get a chance to see as each side presents its best case with the evidence they have come up with. So you get to be the judge and as always it helps to keep an open mind.

        Here is an example of a chart I was just looking at of GDX. I will link it because its really helpful when the author of the chart (his name is dadoc1) puts more than a single technical to the test and then queries readers with the loaded question “Am I a bull or a bear” without telling you which.

        I got a good laugh from that. The chart is self explanatory. Note how most of the technical waves are rolling over. That is not in itself proof miners are doomed but it might help keep you wary for the next while.

        https://goldtadise.com/?p=395855

  24. ras

    Tough price movement. Preconceived scenarios may not help. gld/slv doing sideways. pm stocks in DT. US$ wants to go down? It could go either way. One day at a time. For confirmation of Gary’s dcl, $xau needs to move above 91.5 and trend up. Let us see what tomorrow brings.

  25. Robert

    Here is my take:

    Gold miners hav either finished it’s corrective move today or will do so very shortly. We got a nice hammer candle on the daily, actually the second after yday showing buyers are present.

    I don’t follow Elliott Wave much but this could be an ABC sort of move or todays spike can be considered wave 4. So there might be one more down move back to 23s but I doubt it. I’d say any area of GDX 23 – 24 can be considered a SAFE buy. I have been calling and waiting for this buy zone and finally it’s here.

    So to sum up if we head back down in few days just keep buying. From here looking for gold 1275-1280 minimum!

  26. MegaMind

    Looks like bulls are buying with both hands….I am still not convinced… on what basis are the bulls buying frenzy…what do they know that the bears don’t…

  27. Goild

    Hi Guys,

    I did not do very well today.
    Now I find myself with 15K NUGT shares and -$4K.
    We will see how things work out tomorrow.
    TIP is threatening to break out long.
    GOLD seems to be reaching the recent top.
    USD may be done with the right shoulder.
    Though tomorrow is a Thursday which is strong day and things can also go bad for gold too.
    On positive aspect is that after having two drops to $11.00 the odds are that gold may go up a bit.
    So I may come even and sell a portion of the shares.
    That the miners are leading the fall, is a credible argument.
    However, gold has been very resilient and still is waiting for news/event to decide the next direction.

  28. Gary Post author

    We might need one or two more down days to push short term sentiment into fully bearish territory. The kind of sentiment that can trigger a DCL.

    We may still have to wait for the SOTU before the miners finish their DCL.

  29. Goild

    Good morning.

    Steff thanks for the link about nugt/jnug.

    usd/jpy is currently at -0.36% and so we may have a good day today.
    USD us at -0.16%

  30. bigglaze

    Why does the database keep breaking? Anyone else seeing that? Oh…. and yeah gold hit 1250 πŸ˜€ The miners still seem pretty muted though.

  31. Goild

    The site appears to be back. I was worried to not be able to read your posts anymore.

    Today I did well. Recovered my money and make some.
    Left 2K NUGT shares and pocketed $2K.
    The manipulators set two bear traps yesterday and day before yesterday.
    I wonder if today is a bigger trap, but a bull trap!
    Good trading to all.

  32. Goild

    Oh! I forgot to say that I got very lucky as the open was strong.
    I could have easily lost $10K. Yes, I was very lucky today.
    Good luck and smart trading to all of you!

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Yes the blog was down today due to the number of gold bugs that got left behind when gold and sliver left the station this morning. That’s the problem with trying to time the market.

  33. WallStreetJesus

    Copper had a bloody day today. NUGT didn’t have that great of a day considering how strong gold was.

    Tomorrow should be interesting.

  34. dboz

    Big move in gold and silver today, miners said no thanks. Maybe need some catch up or maybe on the verge of collapse? I am open to either but positioned long still and have sold nothing. Tomorrow should be interesting. Both gold and silver are at resistance. Both touched or broke over at some point today. Follow through to the upside is bullish. Failure and pullback could mean more ominous outcome?

    1. WallStreetJesus

      I agree that tomorrow should be interesting. Considering how some of the other commodities acted today I would be concerned about the “failure and pullback” option.

      Only 1 thing is certain.

      Bitcoin will be up tomorrow, and the day after, and the day after…….

  35. Gary Post author

    I wouldn’t read too much into the miners based on one day. It’s possible the banks are holding them down so they can accumulate before they release them to go higher.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Its also possible the banks are selling as much as they can (distribution) before the next plunge. What a great day to get rid of stock.

  36. Robert

    Horrible action in Gdx today but I still believe the low is in. No idea why miners are being held back, maybe it’s due to the copper selloff? Doubt it tho. I feel the real reason is that majority of money has left miners and gone to stocks. When stocks start declining miners should get a better bid

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