68 thoughts on “THE INTERMEDIATE TRENDS STILL HAVE FURTHER TO RUN

  1. bill

    A quick glance at this mornings futures shows that the Pedster as per usual is peddling his fiction and Hope. Look if I come here every single day and tell everyone NUGT is going to 1000 eventually ill be correct no matter how long it takes, and that is what we get from most of the loud mouths here….long term projection with zero validity then when they finally get the direction they’ve been calling for the last 6 weeks or longer they claim victory lol

    Like I said if I say it everyday eventually ill be correct and that is a horrible trading strategy, and very misleading to others.

    1. Pedestrian

      Bill, you have limited yourself to a single trade (NUGT) and its one you lost 75% on already so maybe you have motivation to talk gold up and object to every other conversation since we know you are badly underwater.

      1. vin

        Bill, Is Pedestrian right? Please confirm. Or, deny it for that matter? Are you one of those who never make money, not even in a bull? Follow Gary and you will do well. He is a genius.

        1. Pedestrian

          Yes, I am right. Bill told us himself when he had bought 3X long ETF’s prior to the July top. And then he held them through the entire downtrend and is still holding waiting to get his money back.

  2. Gary Post author

    I’m going to hold all of my positions until sentiment reaches extreme bullish levels and the intermediate cycle is due to top.

    By that time I expect the leveraged portfolio will be up 500-800%.

    In the meantime the short term flippers will be lucky to make 20% if they make anything at all.

    The metal portfolio is now at +167%. We just keep chugging along consistently gaining more and more profits while the majority just waste this opportunity.

  3. Gary Post author

    Gold is now in the middle stage of an intermediate rally. This is the stage where traders have to work for it. The gains tend to come suddenly during a 1-3 day pop and then price moves into a consolidation or correction.

    If you aren’t in before the pop happens you will miss it.

    This is the stage where most people end up losing money because they buy breakouts and sell corrections.

    In one of my previous videos I showed how most of the gains over a 4 month period from Feb. to July came during just 13 trading days. We are in that kind of market now.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes. It can be and it will be because metals are going down and the only way that is going to happen is if the dollar strengthens again. But examine the charts and you can see the turn for yourself. It may be two more years before sentiment on dollars ever gets low enough to justify entries based on those kinds of technicals.

      Remember, in a bull market surprises are to the upside.
      And overbought levels can stay overbought for extended periods of time.

      So don’t underestimate the dollar. It is an inverse function of the Euro and the Euro is toast.

  4. zbigkid

    The dollar truly sucks donkey d**ks. Its such an over-valued, over-loved, over-owned trade that most people cannot imagine it going down at all. The reason the FED is jawboning so much about the interest rate increases, is because they know truly they are way way behind the curve, and as well stuck in a massive lose-lose situation. See here’s the thing – if they raise now, or too fast, they will tank the market. The truth is they cannot raise much more than the quarter point or maybe half point for an entire 12 month period, which is what has been happening for the past 12 to 18 months.
    Once the dollar really starts rolling over in earnest, then they will be way behind the curve, and will have to raise rates faster, but won’t be able to catch up, since recession will be in full swing, and stocks will be cratering by then of their own accord. The real problem though and its just not being talked about to any serious degree is the massive massive amount of global state, both at national country levels, state levels, and corporate levels, so as the dollar falls, and interest rates are forced higher, the servicing of all this debt is going to become so untenable, that you will see defaults and bankruptcies like there is no tomorrow. These will be cascading defaults, and they in turn will trigger more dollar depreciation, and when the debt holders realize they are is super deep doo doo, they will begin trying to really sell off hard, accepting 20,30, 40% haircuts before all out collapse of their ‘assets’. Interest rates will then be accelerating so fast, that it will be impossible for people to shed debt fast enough. The currency is then collapsed in such a short period of time, that people won’t have any clue what is happening until its just way too late. Stocks will be down 90% in most cases, and then a new currency will be issued after untold amounts of economical damage. SO the FED is literally just biding their time, with hands tied, and blow hard jawboning to make it look like they are in ‘control.’ Totally laughable of course.

    1. Gary Post author

      No it doesn’t.

      A close below 1238 is meaningless.

      Sentiment is what matters (although not in the managed stock market).

      Once sentiment gets too bullish then the rally in metals will be over.

      1. Gary Post author

        I often see people extrapolate forward a trend if a certain number is breached or gained. Most of the time it doesn’t mean anything. Undercut lows are a classic example. Technicians extrapolate further weakness when a support zone is broken, but more often than not it’s nothing more than a trick to allow big money to get your shares at the bottom.

        I wouldn’t read anything into todays action. Today is just about OEX, and pinning price at certain levels to prevent as many contracts from being exercised as possible.

        1. Pedestrian

          You mentioned the 50 and 200 crossovers today Gary and that you prefer the weekly level but if you don’t mind I would really like to comment on that a little. The reason is that I have noticed most of the time the so-called death-crosses and golden crosses don’t yield useful tradable information because they are ALWAYS lagging indicators.

          In other words, by the time you have seen one of the crossovers at that level its already too late to make an entry or exit. This is clearly the case in the chart you were using today. The 50 week is the line to watch as it swings more quickly up and over the much slower 200 week.

          But the reason the 50 moved in the first place has to do with the behavior of gold prices going all the way back to December of 2015! The current golden cross is not useful in any way to indicate what may be coming in the future and I really don’t know why so many people put emphasis on these things without any understanding at all about how they work.

          So I encourage everyone here who is reading this post to make a close examination of the way these two moving averages function. And take note that when gold prices rise (or any other price for that matter) that the shorter duration moving average will rise at a later time.

          Sometimes much later. In this case the lag is considerable and the crossover merely reflects what has already taken place. Indeed, the cross is bullish looking at this time in spite of the fact gold fell from June through October of 2016.

          Think about that for a second.

          It means that what we will see in some months is a death cross but it may come at a time when gold is ready to rally again! So listen people, do not put too much stock in this kind of crossover indicator as its pretty much meaningless and a waste of precious time.

          If you must use these to locate turning points its advisable to use much shorter periods of time and make comparisons between the SMA and EMA of the same time length. Otherwise you are just spinning wheels and will both buy and sell at the wrong times.

          Hope that helps a little.

          1. Pedestrian

            OK. That was too many words.

            Try this instead and it will prove my point.

            Go to the top of this thread to Gary’s video and look at the chart there. Notice that the bullish golden-cross (50 over 200) occurs almost precisely at gold’s August peak.

            At the peak for God’s sake. How useful is that?

            And take note that price fell ever since. You know, maybe they should call that a death-cross instead because it surely told you when to sell, not to buy!!!!!

            Have I made my point clear now?

          2. bginvestor

            Its useful.. the golden cross provides information on intermediate trend direction depending on time frame..

          3. Pedestrian

            That’s the whole point. No it doesn’t.

            Go look more carefully. In order for the MA to move either up or down you need to see a price change in a PRIOR period. The number you see today is based upon 50 data points (can be days, weeks or months as you prefer) and then divided by 50 to get the average.

            It factually tells you nothing at all about the future because by virtue of its formula is based purely upon past data. Don’t kid yourself about crossovers. They are deceptive as hell.

            In Garys example above he was using the 50 week which comprises information going all the way back to the end of January last year. The cross came about partly due to the terrific price spike between Jan and July 2016.

            Please tell me how that is forecasting the future.
            —————
            BTW, your NUGT chart on Ducks site is not going to work out for you. There has been a break below support. But secondly your lines are now drawn correctly. If you chart that way you are only going to fool yourself into seeing something that is not there.

        2. Dday

          $1238 support if its breached $1233 next support . I don’t get what your failing to see. Why is that meaningless? Anyways as i said if gold closes below thats what i Expect.

  5. jhmoffett

    Gary — nice video sir. One other question–what’s your take on the stock market in near term? Pullback coming soon or more upside ahead with only shallow dips? Thanks!

    1. Gary Post author

      Even though sentiment is wildly bullish and the daily cycle is very mature I wouldn’t count on any significant weakness ahead of the state of the union.

      I keep warning people, but most refuse to believe me: the stock market is a rigged game. You can’t fight the power of the Fed’s printing press.

      1. Pedestrian

        I don’t agree at all. We have started a mild correction today that will carry through all of next week at a minimum. I know it drives you guys nuts if I sound too sure of myself but sorry, that’s what is happening. Check the major indices charts for yourself. Its down we go brother and there ain’t no two ways about it.

    1. Pedestrian

      Why? See I don’t get that at all. Did you look at the chart first?

      Stochastics are at a top. MACD is rolling over. RSI overbought and on a sell.

      Can’t you see how stretched the 200 day SMA is above price? That chart has parabolic written all over it. As far as I can tell you are buying at the top and hoping to exercise for a profit 3 months down the road. But that trade is almost guaranteed to lose money unless the market just gets more stupid and goes even more parabolic.

      You don’t need to listen to me of course. Go check the technical’s for yourself.

    1. Pedestrian

      I agree with you Dday. Check out the hourly chart. You have a left translated double top separated by one week and price is now in decline heading into the close for the week. I would not touch gold with a ten foot pole based on that set-up.

  6. 1970confused

    The 3rd friday of every month options ex…..the most useless days in the stock market. A massively bloated overbought market that I have ever seen. Hey all you gold and silver haters out there why dont you go short those financials (xlf) that have been overbought for weeks now instead of coming on this board and trying to rationalize why precious metals should not continue to move up after 5 years of relentless pounding. Still today relative to gold and silver, the mining stocks are at all time lows. Explain that ???????

    1. Dday

      Not haters 1970, simply realists recognizing that no one can predict the future. Gold/silver go up and down, long and short. If you listen to the bullish bias on here then it hurts when thing s go wrong.

      Possibilities.

      -gold goes to $1300+ dollar breaks down.
      -dollar was simply correcting and continues upwards, gold falls….

      Who knows for sure….

  7. MattyMan

    Take a look at the USD/JPY chart… Back-testing down-trend line drawn from Jan. 3rd peak… Held support earlier at 20 week EMA… UUP did the same… SLV rejected by 200 SMA and GLD by its 60 SMA… Bearish gold short term…

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Next week a lot of money will change hands. You can be sure these little narrow range days are a prelude to a big move.

      The direction of the move will be the one that will cause the most pain. Hummmm what direction is that?

  8. WallStreetJesus

    Gary – any comment on the COT’s?

    For gold they look pretty good.
    For silver they look awful.

    Generally the COT’s for gold and silver mirror each other. They are quite divergent right now.

  9. Goild

    Things do not look good for next week.
    I sold 1k Nugt shares and kept 2k shares plus the 750 Gld shares. Today I lost $2k and I hate it.
    But I will honor Gary’s bullish sentiment and play Old Turkey with those reminding shares.
    I will make my money back day trading once I am back in my trading station which is just a 22″ monitor rather than this IPhone.
    Guys have a nice weekend.

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