29 thoughts on “MILD DCL? MAYBE, MAYBE NOT”

  2. ras

    Mild DCL? Who knows? We can only know in hind sight. Many macd breakdowns, but no -ve divs yet. ABX/GG are strong, indicates a bit more upside before a deeper correction if any. It can be helpful to pay attention to price movement of HW pm stocks in addition to DCLs. Deeper corrections are typically preceded by macd -ve div, which has not happened yet. Time will tell.

    1. Pedestrian

      The big gold companies may be inclined to follow the stock market up rather than to follow gold down if it softens as expected. Right now the small topping pattern I was following on US indices seems to be making one more cycle higher and/or has been violated as the charts turned bullish again.

      The dollar meanwhile looks terrific. What more can you say about that as it speaks for itself. Gold looks objectively like it is in the process of rolling over both on hourly and daily charts. On a weekly basis should it turn down here its at nice channel resistance so I think we can appreciate that as it sets up a later bounce from a higher level than might otherwise seem obvious.

      I continue to have a bearish outlook on metals however I have also been surprised by golds persistence in not failing at obvious levels. Silver is also defying the odds and really needs a rest in my opinion. So we shall just watch and wait but I am not entering any longs here despite the major gold miners recent upward bias.

      If the dollar catches a strong bid here it should at the minimum keep gold depressed for awhile longer. Ideally we would have a multi week pullback in pm’s before they turn back up. The charts don’t look complicated though. Both gold and silver have had extended runs since December and silver in particular appears to have made a fairly clear bear flag on the weekly chart that needs to be resolved before it goes anywhere else.

      As always, I stand to be chastened by the market doing the opposite of what I expect! Everyday is a new challenge.

      1. dboz

        Wow, dollar looks to me to be completing a right shoulder and appears ready to tank to the 97 level. Gold has been basing and nothing seems to really phase it. Silver is a wound spring and could blast straight to 19. So in my view the dollar is weak and about to roll over. Gold is lazy and defiant and silver is about as bullish as you can get ready to explode to the upside.

  3. Dday

    Gold reminds me of oil last year, bulls and bears both calling victories while it moved sideways between $40-$50 . Seems similar $1220-$1246….Its confounding to both, and you can see from the post history easy to catch one out…..

      1. Dday

        Looking at that 12 year chart a retracement to around 98 wouldn’t affect the overall cup and handle pattern… possibilty

        – gold continues to around $1330-1350.
        -dollar retraces to 98
        then….
        -dollar continues to 120
        -gold falls below $1000

        Based on the above 12 year chart…..

  5. Goild

    Good morning.

    There is nothing as a good sleep to clearly see things in the morning.
    Gold not caring about USD is to note.
    Gold is waiting for a signal to go either way.

    1. Gary Post author

      The time to play the VIX is during an intermediate decline. That has been pushed out to at least April or May.

      Just imagine how much money people would have saved if they had only just heeded my warnings not to short the rigged stock market…

  7. Goild

    Warning, USD/JPY is at -0.57% which suggest gold set a bull trap. The low volume is consistent with it.

  12. Option Trader

    There is nothing but pure bullish set ups and bullish candlestick behavior with GLD and SLV on short term and long term charts. In fact, the more I review the charts, the more bullish I get.
    We are simply in the midst of very heavy resistance which the metals need to digest.

    I’m looking at a bullish weekly SLV set up confirmation that will complete on Friday. This weekly set up confirms the monthly set up for SLV that I got very excited about, a few weeks back. If I get the confirmation on Friday, the bears are history.

  15. Gary Post author

    Like I warned in the video, yesterday’s reversal might not follow through.

    Now you see why I took profits on the leveraged trades just in case the DCL had further to fall.

    I actually have some people upset because we sold. We made money, good money on the trade. Just goes to show some people can’t be satisfied no matter what you do. Even when we make profitable trades it’s never good enough for some.

    1. Pedestrian

      That is interesting Robert. Just got back to my desk and saw your post so I checked into it.

      Sure enough, something worth noting just happened.

      We have been wondering recently if dollars and gold might start to trade in the same direction. In fact they have been doing that in a general way most of 2017 already. But not quite like this. At around 10:40 both dollars and gold dropped sharply together.

      At the same time Swissy spiked higher and Yen/$ took a 20 pip dive.

      Uh-hunh….that is different. So somebody big has rejigged their algo model because there is no fu***ing way in hell than some random aberration or a bunch of small players can move Swissy, gold, dollars and Yen like that in just a period of minutes. And certainly not move currency markets THAT much.

      Thanks for the mention Robert. This deserves a deeper look.

      1. Pedestrian

        If anyone is wondering what the hell I am blathering about its that parts of the correlation model just broke. Swissy and gold normally trade together for example as do gold and euro’s. But instead we just saw dollars and gold moving together while Swissy and Euro went the opposite direction

        Treasuries, Yen and Gold are still correlating the same as before.

        What broke is Swiss Francs/Gold…..Dollars/Gold…..Euro/Gold
        Interestingly, US indices fell modestly at the same time as gold and dollars dropped while the Nikkei rose. Hmmm. Definitely bears watching. No correlation lasts forever and some of these have been running awhile now.

        To me though this story is about gold and the Swissy behaving differently.

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