120 thoughts on “RUNNING THE STOPS

  1. Gary Post author

    Sentiment at 7% bulls. This is what I’m looking for to signal the DCL. Everyone is bearish. That’s what needs to happen before the cycle bottoms.

    Odds are good the next swing will mark the bottom.

    1. ras

      Sentiment wise, you could be right, Gary. gdxj hits 50 day ma. We can get a strong bounce and then further down? It is tough to reverse downward momo on a dime. Time will tell.

  2. ocram

    It’s nice to notice your positive mood about miners but I’m REALLY scared to death!
    Also other analysts like Plunger and Rambus are EXTREMELY pessimistic about miners!
    They do not think like you that we are in a new bull market but they think that we are deeply into a long term BEAR market.
    Damn the day (loooong time ago) when I put my money into miners!

  3. Gary Post author

    Cycle lows are where the average trader always gets schooled. They sell when they should be buying every time.

    Now we just have to wait for a sign that the bottom is in. At the very least a swing low.

  4. Goild

    I would not be surprised if NUGT hits $5.5 again.
    Gold appears to me to have ran out of gas and will fall for the next weeks.
    But what do I know?
    ( I got rid of 15K of the 23K NUGT shares and plan to sell the reminder tomorrow).
    Good trading to all.

  5. Gary Post author

    Someone bought 5 million in Sept. out of the money calls on GLD today.

    If this turns out to be the cycle low they stand to make a ton of money on that trade. I’ll wait for at least a swing before I try to re enter… although a gap down open tomorrow might be a possibility.

    1. HomerJ

      That GLD September 127 call position is a buy/write of 20,000 contracts.
      Meaning it is a covered call. Yes, it is a Bull position that the trader opened by buying the ETF, but not as bullish because he/she sold $6.2 million worth of calls against it, and definitely not as optimistic as a straight option purchase .

      1. Gary Post author

        Actually it was a mistake. I was looking at open interest not volume. There were only 21 contracts bought.

        1. HomerJ

          Yes, that is correct and those 20,000 that I mention above were transacted on Friday, as described.
          Maybe you were looking at last week’s flow, happens sometimes…

  6. Option Trader

    I can’t believe how horrendous the SIL and GDX look on the charts. The miners have bearish set ups and bearish confirmations on the daily charts. The lower Bollinger bands need to hold here or we’re in for a big drop.
    I wouldn’t be guessing here for a bullish reversal. Let the charts tell you when they’re ready.

    1. Gary Post author

      The thing is the charts never tell you when a bottom has been hit. At cycle lows it ALWAYS looks like price is going lower. This is why most traders sell bottoms and buy tops. Recency bias makes us think price will continue up at tops and continue down at bottoms.

      Just wait for the next swing low and I suspect that will mark the bottom.

        1. Gary Post author

          Cycles aren’t very good for spotting tops. A cycle can top in a left or right translated fashion so there is no timing band for a top.

  7. roadrunner

    Some points to ponder on the PM’s and miners.
    On a day like today with the miners, gold and especially Silver should have been whacked. But they were not. maybe tomorrow? one never knows.
    1. the COT structure for gold is not in any extreme. i believe the only reason gold didn’t get hit hard like the miners, is because any naked selling would be met by physical buyers. And new naked shorts don’t have any gold. The specs are not hugely long, so there are very few paper longs to fleece. it would seem as well that no one is lending gold to short, or the shorts are not interested in borrowing because they know they will not be buying it back cheaper. So seems like there is a floor and i think it is higher from here. At least 1300.
    2, Silver; its acting like a beast. OI is huge but they can’t get the price down. therefore, i believe that this is due to physical buying. This 18.00+/_ range might be a floor. Unlike gold, there are not huge hoards of silver in central bank vaults to lend out. i think there will be large buyers of silver to the 19.50-21 region.
    What i have learned watching the PM’s is that when gold gets far above its ‘fair ‘value” ie where large physical buyers are located,, then that is the time where the commercials can get the momo longs. we are not there yet. not even close.
    3. the miners. well they were up about 30% since the Dec lows, in the last 8 trading days we have corrected about 10%, with today being a large percent of that. If this is a bottom area, that is a nice gain for any portfolio, even if one missed the first 5%. perhaps Gary is right, some big players missed the initial move, they know gold is going to 1300 and probably higher and want to ride the miners, so run the stops and scoop up the shares….someone was buying these shares.

  8. dboz

    I deal with the general public. Totally anecdotal but I will say in the past several weeks average Joe’s are really talking about the stock market. Like nobodies. Working Joe’s. Common people. Just saying, fits the profile.

    1. Pedestrian

      Pretty sure I will be buying Zbigkid. Exactly when will just depend on the chart but we are good to go for a reversal fairly soon and I won’t miss it.

    2. ocram

      Very few people.
      But the problem is not the short term,we will have probably a nice short term jump due to the oversold condition.
      The problem is that ,according many analysts(plunger and rambus among them),the bear is back!

  9. zkotpen


    “I dont know guys….Something is just wrong with miners. I dont recall every seeing gold go up everyday and GDX just staying down. Its not like SPY is collapsing. Something just not right but I will hold on”

    You had a hunch, for a reason, regardless of whether your left brain understood it. That hunch came from the right brain. Left brain normally suppresses anything it doesn’t understand.

    Not sure how familiar you are with the rest of the world, but whenever mommies & daddies see their toddlers favoring the left hand, they usually force them to “be” right handed. That tendency is extreme in East Asia, and it exists in Latin America, places I’ve lived for 7 and 13 years, respectively. Quite often lefties go to a place that I have denominated “land of the misfit toys”, which, unfortunately, just ends up being an expression of counter culture, rather than a more meaningful exploration of the right brain aspect of the psyche.

    I was there for 6 months last year, after an absence of 7 years. I had noted the preponderance of lefties previously, in the 2007-09 time frame. This time around, my right brain served up the moniker within 1 week — much like your right brain served up your hunch that you posted.

    Once you open yourself up to the magick, it happens all the time. You can see my comment of the quote from Hesse on the “Watching the Detectives” post.

    No need to seek out explanations.

    Most of the universe is unknowable.

    Of the remaining knowable part of the universe, most is unknown.

    Why seek out explanations?]

    Truth seeking is a process of self-damnation.

  10. zkotpen


    “How come you don’t have a wheelbarrow and chickens photo of your own!”

    I do but I don’t 🙂

    “[WCW’s] poems often enact the imagist ideal of direct treatment of the thing…”

    Conversely, I just press “page down” & skip right over Pound & Eliot!

    Thus, I am in the process of removing extraneous information from my photos — most notably, country and date.

    That sounds exactly like my approach to market analysis.

    There you go, making me upload another photo to flickr — Thanks!!

    This one’s called “Girl on top”.

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/33163100995/in/datetaken-public/lightbox/

  11. bill

    Thanks Gary, I know many think I’m nuts for holding long but as Ive stated before this is money I do not need or live on so log for me works. Certainly better than holding cash…so the daily tick means very little to me.

  12. Option Trader

    Best of Luck,

    I’m looking for a bullish set up, once SLV gets close to its 20 DMA. I’ll mention it, if I see something.
    Meanwhile, I’m glad I took some profits yesterday morning when SLV was reaching its upper B.B. and confirmations were in place.

  13. Ed

    USDJPY is down near yesterday’s pre_ramp up price range 112.15. But nowhere I see gold price responding to the scale of FED manufactured dollar ramp up. Reminds me what ECB Draghi said few years back, ECB will buy all assets classes except gold. Gold is the mortal enemy of FED. Anyone who think metals are the least manipulated market are plainly incorrect.

    Gold will rise only when FEDs hands are tied back and no tools are left. I believe tonight,s SOTU will mark the beginning of Gold price rise. And miners have to go up once persistent gold price rise. For now I will take all the unrealized losses.

  14. zkotpen

    GDX’s DCL was January 26 at 22.78.

    February 27 low was 22.73.

    Sounds like a failed daily cycle to me.

    That’s the kind of thing we were discussing all weekend — so the discourse proved beneficial 🙂

  15. Gary Post author

    Silver is already trading near the recent closing highs, and gold is up again today.

    There is no natural way the miners will ever diverge this far from the price of gold. Sometimes they will diverge a bit at a top. But they don’t go down hard with the price of the commodity they sell going up.

    The banks got busted and are paying multi million dollar fines for manipulating the futures market (proving me correct BTW). Clearly they can’t risk doing that again. They can however short the mining shares freely.

    I expect we will see gold and silver going higher and miners will turn and follow once the banksters have loaded up on as many shares as they could after the stop run.

    Welcome to the lawless wild wild west in the metals sector 🙂

    1. vin

      Thanks Gary. Based on the trading pattern of the miners, you could very well be right.

      The problem is we will never know the truth, specially now when the President has given them a freer hand. Then, again, we the people can never guess where and how they will strike again. Their data base beyond comprehension. So, it is a futile exercise.

      I agree with you that gold will be higher (and probably much higher) in the long run though I would be very careful with 3X.

      As I have said earlier, in theory it is possible to EXCEED 3 times with 3X because of the compounding. But, then it is also possible to perform worse than X with 3X, that is, one can lose money with 3X while the basic X is in black.

    2. zbigkid

      I believe you are spot on Gary, wrt to the divergence, bankster’s ‘bad habits’, stop running, and lawlessness in the metals sector. It may not be as blatant, or obvious, but similar occurs in other sectors, and markets. As they say, ‘trade accordingly.’

  16. bill

    After seeing this mornings GDP as well as Kaplans comments yesterday Ive concluded that yesterday was nothing but a Bull shit drive by take down by the switch pullers…. more proof this sector has heavy hands in it to keep it down…

    1. Gary Post author

      Of course it was. The miners would never diverge this far from a rising gold price naturally.

        1. vin

          Yes, tulip. But, by the look of it, it had some help.

          What happened yesterday would be hard to explain based on a free market. It is possible but then it would be a rare event which could occur only under extreme conditions and presently that does not apply either to the price of gold or gold (miners).

          1. Gary Post author

            The sooner people accept that we don’t have free markets the easier it will be to make money in our modern managed markets.

            I anticipated the attack and we avoided it. Those that still think we are playing by free market rules lose money to the thieves and cheats running these markets.

  17. Goild

    Good morning,

    With a fresh mind I just see silver in a strong and robust linear uptrend, gold too albeit some wiggles.
    So whatever is behind them is robust.
    The miners fall was uniform across so there should not be a problem with the companies. I expect them to bounce back. As mentioned before the rate drop in December was an extreme that was quickly cured. JNUG touch the cured level at $7.47 and it would be very hard to make it go lower. NUGT hit the previous $9.5 when gold retraced ~38%. These support levels are very strong. I have not sold the 9K NUGT shares and added now 5K JNUG shares.

    Good trading to all.

  18. Goild

    The extremist factor that I have mentioned in the past is clearly illustrated by yesterday’s drop.
    This look like a war between manipulators/institutions.

  19. dboz

    Only in this sector can companies making money and about to make much more with higher prices in a big uptrend lose 5-13% in one day and panic crash. While the rest of the market goes sky high with companies making less and the hope they may eventually make more. Twilight zone stuff. I personally get very aggravated since it’s my money I’m losing here for no reason whatsoever.

    1. Gary Post author

      One has to learn to adapt to these markets and anticipate the interventions.

      I warned everyone that yesterday was probably coming. I’ve also warned people for several years not to short the stock market.

  20. dboz

    Silver price up 15% this year and silver miners losing 10% or more value. Imagine any other sector with their product value rising 15% in two months. It would be to the moon euphoria. Not in metals, it’s reason for a massive selloff.

  21. bill

    Bastards can’t manipulate the futures but dive right in selling millions of shares at the opening bell….Criminal. The Swamp still looks very much full of the same vermin…

  22. Ed

    Debt ceiling limit debate and rate hike do go together. In SOTU . Trump will talk about tax reforms and economic stimulus programs but that had been kown last month or so, they are already priced in. Now debt ceiling increase debates will take over the media space where Dems will try debt ceiling increase to result of Trump’s tax cuts and infrastructure spending and Republicans now have to explain why they are the ones increasing deficit spending. It’ no win situations for Trump.

    Yelled cannot raise interest rate in this political environment, not in March at least. Trump will blame Yellen for all the Economic woes.

    If Yellen dares to raise interest rate, the stock market will tank and all that fiat money created last 10 years down to toilet.

    Gold will rise. Because gold is only money that has no third party risk. And miners are just nature’s safe deposit boxes for real money. Safe and sound underground.

    1. cazabrujas

      I think Trump will disappoint markets tonight. He said that he won’t be able to unveil his tax program until the ACA repeal issue has been solved.

  23. cazabrujas

    Damn, I disregarded Gary’s advice and was hit hard. Hopefully now that the huge dump is behind us, the relationship between gold and miners will be restored. At least it looks that way now.

  24. Ed

    Watch USDJPY. Kuroda is only central bank in the world subsurviently follow FEDs orders. All the gold price ramp down happened coordination with Japanese CB. Any uncontrollable rise in gold price occurred when Japanese Bank loses battle with currency traders. USDJPY is the tool gold manipulators are using. Not DXY or EURUSD.

    1. dboz

      Maybe, but it moved up from 111 to 112 yesterday and caused a $10-15 drop in gold. Today it is down the same amount and gold barely reacts as it should be way up. So not sure you can base much on that correlation especially if it only works in one direction.

      1. Ed

        That is beauty of manipulation. They manipulate down hard and cursory up move against them
        They never move tic for tac. Always exaggerate move in their favor.

        USDJPY is a tool they adopt in their favor. When index is going against them they will dump this index like a hot potatoes. It happened a couple of times in the past.

        It only works while they still using it. These people train you rely on this index and most convenient time they leave the bags for you hold. So I never trust charts or indexes 100% because these people one step ahead of general investing mass.

        Best way to profit most is think on your own and willing to take positions of smallest number of traders.

  25. Option Trader

    Today we’re getting the bounce in the metals/miners after yesterday’s horrific performance.
    The charts still have red flags in my eyes, so I’m happy with not adding anymore positions here until the charts tell me otherwise.
    What concerns me about yesterday’s move was the increasing volume to the downside with GDX, which has to be respected.
    On the bright side, GDX has reached key support at the 50DMA and the 100DMA which is most likely providing the support for today’s bounce. I think it’s important to wait and see how GDX responds at this inflection point.
    Keep in mind we have important market changing events coming up including Trump’s speech tonight and the Fed’s interest rate announcement on March 15th. Best to be out of the market during these events.
    Although I like the performance of the metals today, they continue to push up against upper resistance. That’s not where I accumulate. I’ll be happy to wait for a better entry.

    1. ras

      OT, that will be about 12 trading days. If miners want to go up from here, they need to display a budding uptrend by then.

      1. Option Trader


        To me, events are just days to be out of the market. What ever leads up to those days or in between those days I rely specifically on candlestick/chart behavior. I can’t tell ya what’s in store for the charts in the future.

  26. Ed

    Economics principles are based on demand supply. All the fiat money printing and competitive currency debasement increased money supply and all that money supply went to stocks and real estate. Gold was suppressed all the while $ 10 T money was created from thin air. NO $100s T considering all other CB. Now fiat currency can disappear as easily as they are created as forms of bankruptcy, empty decaying houses and stock market crashes. But Gold will keep its value regardless. Only reason gold never risen to corresponding money supply increased was because active and forceful cramp down by CB.

    Now the stock markets about to crumble, real estate same way. Bond will tank due to increased rollover amounts. Cash is not such good ideas with zero interest and inflation.
    So what is only asset class left behind?
    Money metals.

  27. Ed

    So why CB hates gold beside gold is only money standing throughout human history?
    It is necause Gold is true indicator of inflation and currency debasement. They keep have to kill gold price to hide their true nature of wealth destruction by stealth inflation and money debasement. CB are truly evil creatures that were created to enslave ordinary people while enriching very few.

      1. Ed

        Bad comparison, Mate.
        You should compare 1972 CPi- onward withh Gold price. Actually 1980 onward because gold price pre 1980 spike probably not good comparison.
        Also components of ‘CPI changes every year in order to pay less to government pay recipients.

  28. Strike

    Congrats are in order to Ped, zk, tetty, and crow for their predictive skills, and to Gary for stepping out of the way.

  29. Option Trader

    Some traders on the blog probably wonder what I do with my charting.

    So here’s the breakdown what I look for. It ‘s a 3 step process.

    #1 A candlestick group behavior set up on a long term chart (monthly) Bullish or Bearish
    #2 A candlestick group behavior set up on the shorter term charts (weekly or daily)
    I call this set up my confirmation
    #3 A healthy pullback once the confirmation is in place
    I find the pullback very important part of the process which kicks the majority of traders out of
    their positions before the trend can resume.

    I use the major moving averages and Bollinger bands to help me identify what I’m looking for,

  30. Ed

    I am very disappointed not pulling out in time and re_enter like today. I was too preoccupy with not on the train. I should have known there few small stops before a long haul distant one way train ride, but at least I can take comfort that I am in the train took up 1st class seat even though I had paid a high price for a fare. Better than missing the train that probably never available the journey to financial freedom.

  31. Strike

    tulip – only trying to give credit when credit is due, while I lick my wounds. I am and remain long, but kick myself for not lightening up when the divergence was staring me in the face.

    Those guys are not always right, but this time they were.

  32. Pedestrian

    I mentioned this a few days back but its good for a repeat. What I warned about was the Canadian dollar about to roll over and go down as that is typically a good signal to follow if you trade crude oil. Well, after two days of declines on the Loonie (a penny total) and WTI is indeed taking a dip and if you follow oil you will see there has been a minor technical break that may indicate more downside lies ahead. I take my cue from CAD though and it sure looks like its begun a trending move down so this is probably a good time to consider oil shorts. Not the least of the reasons is the extreme bullish positioning of the speculative element. Naturally, almost nobody will agree so its best to do your own investigating here.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Hey I am with you on crude going lower. The commercials are the most short they have ever been. If it weren’t for the Trump uncertainty oil would be $10 lower right now.

    2. Option Trader

      I think that’s a good observation Ped.

      Canadian dollar has been closely tied to the metals, over the past few years.

  33. bigglaze

    I dunno, I don’t think this is as bad as everyone is making it out to be. The overall trend from the bottom is still up. It’s shocking yes but hardly a blood bath. Might see a leg up from Trump tonight.

    1. bigglaze

      If you shorted from the top, then good on you. If you bought a the bottom, you’re still up ~50% (if it was a leveraged fund). It hardly carried on today.

  34. Ed

    I have feeling we have employees of gold price manipulating banks right here in this blog. Testing out temperature of waters.

  35. Option Trader

    I’m hoping we can descend into a healthy pullback here with the metals. I think that might just happen over the next two weeks, into the Fed meeting. The sentiment was a little too bullish. I always have Bloomberg or CNBC on, in the background. I was hearing bullish discussion on gold and silver being discussed too often.
    Anyway, a healthy pullback is what I’m looking for and I’m hopeful to get it..

  36. bigglaze

    I actually just remembered a stunt Goldman Sach’s pulled on Bloomberg TV last year, talking about how Gold is antiquated and how there’s enough equities out there, BOOM! The HUI took a ~5% hit. It bounced back shortly after. Hoping this is the case and the bull isn’t dead yet.

  37. tulip

    anyone read this??

    Bankrupting OPEC.. One Million Barrels Of Oil At A Time
    Filed in Economy, Energy by SRSrocco on February 25, 2017 • 22 Comments

  38. Option Trader

    I strongly suggest keeping any eye on TLT if your looking for a bullish trade.
    Today we have a beautiful monthly set up on the charts and the weekly set up is also in the works. I’ll need to see how it finishes the week on Friday. Friday has a lot of economic data that’s coming out. So… I’m out of the market until Trump’s speech tonight and Friday’s data is complete.

    1. dboz

      I agree,price up and yield down. Ready to run.

      Wishing I would have bailed last week. Things are looking bad here and we may be about to collapse. Miners are losing significant yearly gains and you can only smack people over the head so many times. Thinking it’s the master plan to just discourage those interested in the PMsector to show them not to bother here.

      Lost most of my gains now as we are way below last Sept levels now.

      Going forward I think I will need to attempt to get out and rebuy on downdrafts. Buy and hold is not working and the down days are catastrophic not just declines.

      Now PM prices are rolling over and will take down miners even lower. Plus the market could burst any time and do even more damage.

      Feeling defeated. Get it right but still lose.

  39. ARends

    This is very interesting: BofA’s Institutional Clients Are Suddenly Selling Everything

    Over the past week we reported on multiple occasions that according to two major banks, Bank of America and JPMorgan, institutional investors and hedge funds have been quietly selling stocks, while the “last man in”, mom and pop retail investor, have been waving it in, riding high on the animal spirits and delighted brokers who finally get to collect some retail commissions, and using ETFs for their purchase, whose end of day rebalancing has had the added benefit of sending the market surging in the last 30 minutes of trading as JPM explained.


    1. dboz

      Worthless info, they sold for 15 weeks straight at one point last year and the market went up constantly. Only in the miners does selling drop the price. Massive funds selling the market does not bring price down. It’s the new principle of markets and economics.

    2. Option Trader

      I’m showing bullish setups on my charts for BAC this week. I’ll have to wait for Friday’s close to confirm but I’m not getting anything bearish on the charts. My BAC option calls are in the green and I hope to add more on Friday into the close.

  40. WallStreetJesus

    If we are in a bull market then hold your core position and add more on the dips.

    Today was the dip.

    I don’t hear many adding to their positions.


  41. zbigkid

    This is an interesting article about stocks. From a pretty decent ‘big picture’ guy. What he doesn’t mention, likely for fear of looking like a fool, is that our market has been propped so many times by so many central banks monetary infusions, and rhetoric from our own Fed, that its so far beyond fundamentals, or appropriate valuations, that when it does crash, the drawdown will be so significant, these boomers he refers to, will be turned into paupers if they are at all in stocks, or bonds.


    Robert is not the only one, or necessarily the most respected out of many who feel the same way he does, but its totally a fools errand to believe the market can go continuously straight up for this long, with nary a correction, and earnings especially now tracking as low as 2010/2011 levels. Tops are tough to call.

    1. jeffd5584

      Exactly right zbigkid. I view (as do many others) the latest ramp job as the Fed put at its greatest extreme yet. The same b.s. we witnessed in 2016 with the Dec 2015 rate hike (and then nada for 12 months) continues to be repeated (with the good cop/bad cop routine employed when most convenient). We have no market, no price discovery, nothing more than a series of “ramp and camp’s”, (in stock indicies). Meanwhile, other markets are not immune from the implications of Fed jibberish. It’s not uncommon to witness miners flying around, bonds flying around and the S&P sitting in a 2 point range for 4 hours.

      It’s a pathetic excuse for a market really.

  42. dboz

    Volatility all over tonight. My gut says bloodbath for miners tomorrow and surge for markets. Now 75% chance for rate hike in March. Dollar probably will break out and crash the Yen which will crush gold. Autos and homes are going to crash soon with the hike, markets won’t care. Banks are said to be in great shape and making a killing with rate hike increases. NY pension fund in trouble.

    1. roadrunner

      “NY pension fund in trouble.” Not just NY. CA, IL are two others and I am sure there are another dozens as well as the various publis sector pensions.

  43. Goild


    I hope you soon get in the green.
    I think the miners are quite cheap and should get back to previous prices.
    I got now 10K JNUG shares.
    Let us be wise and trade well.

  44. shiva1968

    The bloodbath is coming. It’s not a matter of if, but when. The underperformance of miners is a pretty ominous sign for things to come. One I certainly wouldn’t bet against. Remember, prices fall a hell of a lot faster then they rise. A two month up trend which we have just seen can be wiped out in days. Brace yourself.

  45. Goild

    The situation of the 3X leveraged funds is just simply pathetic.
    They probably were revaluated so that they lost about 50% of their peak recent gains.
    For every 1% gold loses the 3X may lose 10%. Gold has gained about 11% and if were to retrace 5% then it would send the 3X miners to lose about another 30-50% nearly hitting the December lows.
    The miners candle formation is not certainly bullish.
    Probably the wise play is to stay out till the candle formation aligns.
    This is unfortunate. How quickly the landscape has changed.
    After reading Dboz comments I sold 5K JNUG shares. So now I only have 5K shares.
    USD/JPY is currently at 113.44; tomorrow does not look good.
    Though there is hope for a strong reversal, which probably will not happen.

    1. Dday

      Nugt jnug based on miners not gold price Goild. So yes if gdx falls 5% then thats 15% down for NUGT. Again gold miners are not physical gold….

  46. ARends

    It is just incredible how underlying evidence show the market is at place of collapse but then ‘The ECRI is one of the most respected economic forecasting firms in the world. It was founded by Geoffrey Moore, an economics professor who was former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s teacher. Greenspan cited Moore as an important influence on his thinking and “a major force in economic statistics and business-cycle research for more than a half-century.” Moore’s work focused on forecasting recessions, and the ECRI still publishes indexes based on his work.This is all good news for stocks and the economy. Remember, the WLI was originally designed to forecast economic strength, and this is the latest confirmation that the economy could finally be breaking out of its slump.’ Not sure what this is: propaganda before the fall or any value…hahaha, any comments on this graph of cycle comparison. http://banyanhill.com/the-best-indicator/

    1. ARends

      Well I think it is BS due to possible usage of BS FED data to support SM…where does it end? PM miners I hoped could withstand manipulation due to diversity. It obviously is subject to fear triggers to reaction now used by CB. They really want us to drop PM or PM miners. Well is that actually a bullish sign considering bankers strategy with sentiment. That is what I believe or hope to believe. Bi-polar as ped previously said and my cardiac shock therapy doing old turkey.

      ‘ its a bull market’

      Jnug: Presently it Feels like a matador in the bull ring with just his red cape between him and the charging bull and you aiming to be missed in the charge possibly becoming mincemeat before you hear the crowd screaming ‘OLEeee’, praying you going to be alive by not missing the Ole

      1. Dday

        Look at the technicals of GDX posted above, not the time to sell imo. Also look at the history of jnug, nugt 20% drops rises have happened countless times. They are designed for experienced traders who can recognize short term trend changes and sell regularly. They are not meant to be held for long periods.

  47. Goild

    Good morning!


    How ae you doing?
    Thank you for bringing up he relationship of the 3X and GDX.
    This morning the 3X are somehow resilient. I was expecting to see them at -7-10% down.

  48. Goild


    Also thanks for the daily TA on GDX.
    I look at the weekly stochastic which shows just a touch of the overbought zone to start diving.
    I take it the interpretation is that GDX is having a retracement to turn around and keep going up.
    Hopefully so.

  49. Goild


    I got back 2.5K JNUG shares at $7.44.
    Yes, this is not probably the time to sell but to buy.
    The dip in December was an extreme and I take it that to break support at the pre dip level will be very unlikely.
    Your comments really help me to find tune my understanding. Thanks.
    Wise and good trading to all.

  50. Goild

    Some things I have learned in the last three months since I joined the SMT.

    From Gary, to pay attention to being prudent and to organization. A bit of Cycles and sentiment.
    From Dday technical analysis, consistency and to be careful with being impulsive.
    From Alex the critical relationship with Forex.
    From Ped to aim at mastering shorting.
    From Star1525: to look at everything as a channels and trade at the trend lines.
    From bginvestor to trade support and resistance.
    From Terry to look at the confluence of charts and have a narrative
    From option trader to aim at mastering the language of the candles.
    From Vin, having a sense of humor 🙂

    I probably miss mentioning other’s teachings.

    Thank you all.

  51. bluelagoon

    Looks like metals are now following miners down. I was scared out of JDST last week listening to someone who thought the metals DCL was over. Got out at $12.50 JDST – and now it looks like gold is heading towards my initial analysis target of about 1210-1220ish.

    Does anyone have any advice on whether it’s too late to get into JDST again? Thanks.

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