SMT scorecard

The leveraged metal portfolio is now up 150%.

It’s late enough in the daily cycle that I’m not going to push this any further. If we get a final pop to 1240 after the FOMC meeting so be it. The next great buying opportunity should come along in 8-10 trading days at the next DCL.

That should start the second leg of this intermediate rally that will take gold over $1300.

Unfortunately most of you won’t be able to buy at the cycle bottom as the technicals will say we’re going down. Human behavior never changes.

Most people buy breakouts and sell pullbacks. What you need to do is buy pullbacks and sell breakouts. But the majority of traders emotions prevent them from doing what they need to do to make money in a bull market.

How many times have I said this? The time to buy is when it’s hardest to pull the trigger. The time to sell is when you are the most worried about missing “the move”.
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111 thoughts on “SMT scorecard

  1. Gary Post author

    I just have to laugh at the people that sold at the bottom. On the other hand we were buying and have now recovered all the losses from being early in Oct. and then some.

    Like I always say: Most people won’t make a dime off a bull market.

    1. terrywg

      I’ve made money, will continue to make money, and suspect many other serious traders here have been making money consistently.

      You say a bull market corrects all timing mistakes. That may be true… but contingent on the fact that we are actually in a bull market. A 50 percent draw-down may be bearable, but on the off-chance you are wrong, that number can easily turn into a 100 percent draw-down.

      Just because some traders keep an open mind as to different possibilities, doesn’t make their trading style any less profitable than yours. Your recent ST trades are very similar with what some of us here on the comment board have been doing, which has been primarily grounded in technical analysis. For you to deride TA seems a little bit overboard.

      As for laughing at the people who sold at the bottom? That just comes off as mean-spirited.

      1. vin

        Bull corrects all mistakes! Not if one buys 3x at wrong juncture. People bought jnug at higher than 32. When will the BULL correct their mistake?

        1. Gary Post author

          By the time this bull is over JNUG will be so far above $32 that it will be an insignificant number hardly anyone will even remember.

      2. Gary Post author

        Terry,
        For all the abuse I took during December you better believe I’m going to laugh my ass off at the idiots that sold at the bottom. ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. Epiphany

          Funny enough I’m laughing my ass off at people who bought JNUG at $32 in August. I made a mint on JDST during that period and then turned long via JNUG in December….after you had lost 90%. Doh!

          1. Gary Post author

            Who bought JNUG at $32?

            We bought at $23. Exited at $13 and then re-entered at $6.00.

            We’ve easily recovered all the losses and then some.

            I would be willing to bet none of you are even close to the SMT metals portfolio since the bear market bottom last year.

            The miners are up not quite 100% since the bear market bottomed. We are significantly outperforming the sector.

    2. vin

      What about those who bought jnug at 32? When will their mistake be corrected? Please don’t get me wrong. I think you are a genius, but not always.

      1. Gary Post author

        No one bought at $32.

        You would have to be crazy to buy with the miners stretched 70% above the 200 DMA.

        We’ve already recovered and are considerably higher than we were at the top last summer.

        E is just another troll making up the facts to serve his purpose, but none of his BS has any basis in reality.

  2. Option Trader

    My monthly set up on Silver is similar to Gary’s longer term analysis. I find a monthly set up is different than an hourly, daily or weekly set up. The longer term set ups, like a monthly, hold more emphasis than those on the shorter term.
    However, the short term volatility will happen and can scare you off. I agree with Gary here.. buy on pullbacks. Especially over the next week or two. Avoid the noise… big move is coming.

    GDX and NUGT are also showing nice long term set ups on my charts.

    1. MegaMind

      the thorn on the side of this rosy bush is that interest rates are set move higher this year…with each rate hike, I am reading that gold go head down to 750…I will post the link later on…have to find it…

  3. Don

    Gary, you always make out as if you have bought at the absolute bottom of every cycle and then brag about how much you are up from that bottom. I ain’t buying it. Are you in or out of gold right now?

    1. vin

      Worry not, Don. You can buy at any time in a bull market and the bull will correct the mistake sooner or later.

      Did you buy jnug at 32+?

  4. Don

    Ped, you had a chance to egt out of DSLV with a minor loss this morning. Are you hanging on for a profit?

    1. Pedestrian

      Missed it Don. I had a sell in but was never reached and I was busy elsewhere. I am holding until this afternoon and will get out at the best price. Its not really my thing to be honest. An impulse buy. Ordinarily I never watch that chart.

  5. Don

    I am waiting for Natural gas to drop to the $2.90 range before jumping in long.
    Anybody else play NG at all?

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Haha I am trying to buy some May 2022 at 2.705, haven’t been filled. There is almost no liquidity that far out. I like the price. I will buy and obviously hold this position for a few years.

      1. Don

        WallStreet: I was looking at those long dated NG futures also. I have tried buying them at the ask price and the price is immediately moved up with no fill. I know how that game works but it would be nice to get filled at such a low price.

        1. WallStreetJesus

          It generally takes several days to get filled. Once you are in you are committed since there is no liquidity that far out.

          I am not sure why you didn’t get filled if you hit the ask since the markets are electronic. I have never had that problem. You do have to be patient that far out.

          I have been trading NG for a long time. I have never seen the curve this flat and gas 5 years out under $3. NG has been in the bear market from hell and one of these days that will change.

  6. zkotpen

    Pedestrian

    “I will.”

    ๐Ÿ™‚

    Hey Pedestrian, did you see my comment on fractals on the previous page?

    My daily cycle chart is looking decidedly — sideways
    (just like the long term gold chart)

    My first target is 1183-89 area — though no guarantee of a second target below that range.

    Even though I was off on my IMMEDIATE ideas for last Friday, my short to long range forecasts posted then are still looking solid. In particular, the zig zag idea for the first intermediate cycle from the YCL last December.

    What happened to the swing trading club??

  7. Option Trader

    Here’s what I’m liking about today’s action as of 11:30am:

    SIL > SLV
    SLV > GLD
    SLV = holding at yesterday’s lows

    Now this can all change at 2pm with the FED statement. But holding up relatively well considering a day non friendly to precious metals.

  8. macman1519

    Lots of traders in wait and see mode for Fed. My guess hawkishly interpreted and gold takes a bath for a few days. 1980s look good to reenter.

    1. Option Trader

      I certainly enjoy my coffee time too Steff. My coffee is getting ready and my first sip will be at 1:59pm today.

  9. MegaMind

    Miners HUI Is sitting right on its pivot point now… chart patterns are calling for a fall… it would be healthy in the long run to get a flush down… don’t you think?

    1. Gary Post author

      We will get a 5-8 day drop into a daily cycle low sometime in the not too distant future. Maybe it starts today on the FOMC statement, to maybe gold has one more pop to 1240 first before the correction. It’s anybodies guess.

  10. Goild

    Miners appear near the bottom of their uprising channels.
    Gold may be thought to be doing about the same.
    We do not expect a significant rate change. Neither Gary nor the yahoo financial calendar site expect a change
    which is consistent with the weak GDP.
    I like to get in with NUGT shares if it spikes down to about $10.00.
    Is there any other game plan?

  11. Strike

    I am really Janet Yellin. Call me Strike for short.
    I will NOT raise today.
    I will suggest a cautious approach to policy pending the new administration’s fiscal stimulus plans (but i won’t say that directly – need a bit of Greenspan obfuscation).
    But I will promise future tightening eventually.
    That’s why we Fed Governors get paid the big bucks for working our 20 hour months.
    You all have a forty minute head start thanks to my post. Go for it.

  12. bill

    Long and strong Im not playing the daily chase game, and Im up large…very large in fact. But I don’t need the funds so as they say..Let is ride.

  13. Goild

    Don,

    Yes, PPLT and SLV look very bullish. Ready to breakout.
    I just got 2000 NUGT shares at $10.54
    Looks like a no brainer.

  14. Don

    No one is worried about what the FED may do in the coming months. No worries, be happy. The complacency should be a warning to the bulls. If the market falls, don’t expect the miners to hold up although gold may not decline.

    1. dboz

      I am not sure the miners will fall if the market does. 2008-9 was unique in that there was fear of the entire financial system collapsing with huge unknowns on how things would pan out including major banks failing. No one trusted financials or companies. I don’t see the same set up this time. Just rambling here but that is my opinion.

  15. ras

    nugt trying for a lift off to 11.60 plus? US$ turning back after mounting an assault on 100 level? Time will tell.

  16. Don

    Careful Ras. Gary is getting a little too sure of himself and that makes me nervous. I have no gold miner leveraged positions right now except for some penny stocks (that are almost all above their levels at gold’s peak in July)

  17. Option Trader

    Appear to have bullish breakout of rising wedges on multiple metal tickers… but I’m not holding my breath. lol

  18. Option Trader

    My option calls are on the highs of the day. No slam yet..

    Folks… if we get no slam today… I would say this very very bullish…

  19. Strike

    My observation is that the Fed was as positive for gold as it could possibly have been, yet prices are not running – the reaction is muted. I think in the short term prices will head down.

  20. dboz

    What? Muted? I thought the move is awesome. Dollar is tanking right now. Miners up BIGLY. It’s only been 45 minutes.

    1. dboz

      I just thought to hold its own was good, but actually shot up decently. About a 2% day for me. Not great for sure. Looked strong then just fizzled.

  21. Strike

    How soon you have forgotten what a strong move looks like. Hint: it doesn’t look like DXY, $GOLD, and NUGT being even for the day. Sure there was some improvement after 2pm – but it was, well, muted!

  22. zkotpen

    Just woke up from a nap.

    Prices were a little reddish before nap,

    a little greenish after nap.

    PM’s still sideways.

  23. Pedestrian

    Just checking charts. Like a boat that hit a reef or something. There are a few scratches and the paint is chipped but no major body damage. The most important charts remain technically intact which is pretty amazing. This was one of the least violent Fed days in awhile. Not that I fared that well. Finally earned myself a losing trade but nothing mortal by a long mile. So tomorrow is another day.

  24. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    That’s why I took a nap! Set my alarm for 1:38, woke up 15 mins before & moved it out to 2:38…

    That’s what I meant by “decidedly sideways” — a little on one side, a little on the other side…

    … and then back.

    1. Pedestrian

      Next FOMC I will do the same. This was a wheel spinning day. There was no win for either bulls or bears and no decisive moves worth talking about. And we are again back to 1209 gold the same as we were in late 2013. No net progress at all in the last three years.

  25. Goild

    I saw gold starting the spike and so I got into NUGT to sell it and pocketed $1285.
    However, I think the bandwagon is ready to leave again so I just got 2K shares at $10.98.
    Hope to hold them for a while and increase them.

    I hope you guys did very well.

  26. rozelina17

    I don’t have that option Goild cause I am trading through a Swedish account but thanks! That is available for swedish stocks only.

  27. Option Trader

    Nice action on Silver today. Held up nicely and broke out of bullish wedges today, after a strong move up yesterday. Silver miners ended strong in the green. Pretty impressive for a Fed day.

    I watch Silver carefully, as you know by now. In a bull market, Silver will lead Gold. This is the action we saw today. When Gold leads Silver, it’s time to be cautious.

  28. Bv

    Just come in from the pub, what the hell’s going on Gary? All these posts, means normally loads of trolls and we’re near the bottom, but neither, so what does it mean? Don’t know whether we’re going up or down, but sold everything today. Just need a breather and to catch my breath. Good luck all.

  29. Robert

    Based on the action today it looks like Gary is right. Metals basically are topped now. Maybe one more small push up but it looks like its time to buy protective puts if you are still holding long positions. Makes sense to do so tomorrow or Friday.

      1. Robert

        Yes I did thx for asking. Slightly green so I am back fresh again. I am not gonna screw it up like last time and rush in. Going to wait out for a dip like Gary said and will go all in. I hope to actually make some good money on the the next leg up to 1280. GL

  30. ras

    Gary says that it is a pm bull market. If it is, it is indeed a strange bull market. Based on price action, it is mostly sideways with an upward bias. All that I see : most of the time itsy bitsy moves. Occasionally, a spunky move. Just stop and go, on/off.

    1. Option Trader

      Wow Ras, Gary recently put out a video describing exactly what you are saying. He showed a chart of gold over several months that was in up trend. He pointed out that there were only about 10 days or so that made huge one day gains and the rest of the entire period was sideways its bitsy moves.
      The point is that you are absolutely right… bull markets move with only few huge one day gains. If you don’t stay long you will be trying to chase it and lose money.

  31. dboz

    Dollar is going to keep sinking. Silver will keep rising and take gold up with it. Silver leading gold is the traditional path.

  32. Steffmeister

    We are within the timing band for Buy, like I stated a couple of weeks ago Feb 2-8th, 12th latest. After that I expect pm will go up and move away. I’ve bought a first class ticket and is waiting for take off.

    The Open Interest analysis is indicating a change of direction, unlike conventional indicators like RSI and MACD, the OI acts the same way for an up or down move, a top followed by a lower top and it’s non directional. This time though I interpret it as a move to the upside and we are getting close.

    Next question is how long will this rally last?

        1. Epiphany

          Oh this is the most entertaining blog by far to troll. I get to see you and all these posters trip all over yourselves as you wait anxiously for some illusory cycle low to occur 8-10 trading days from now. This will be exciting as prices actually go higher and you begin scolding the retail traders from chasing. The script is always the same with you. Last March you scolded people for not selling when HUI hit 175 only to see it chug along to 280+ largely without your participation. Where else can I get entertainment of the variety that only you can provide Gary? This is without a doubt the best blog ever!!!

        2. Epiphany

          and then remember in late May you said there would be a cycle low into July 1st time period? Guess what happened….late May WAS the low and the HUI went from 200 to 280 in just over a month. Yes, good times.

  33. Goild

    The miners are really bullish.
    I took a risk and got rid of my 2K shares at 11.21 to close the day with +$1720.
    I hope tomorrow morning to get in at a lower price. Hope not to miss a gap up.

    Enjoy the rocket up!

    1. MegaMind

      Goild what time frame charts are you using? also what is your trigger indicator for buy and sell? thanks

  34. bill

    I’ll be holding my position until at least till the Feb option X, I own the stock not the option, I’m using that as a sell period time frame . Feb is a solid metals month and delivery period .

    Of course it’s subject to change based on volatility..

  35. macman1519

    Trump’s way!
    Trump Wins by Losing a Court Fight Over Debt

    11FEB 1, 2017 5:37 PM EST
    a | A
    By
    Joe Nocera
    “I’m the king of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me.”

    Remember when then-candidate Donald Trump made that boast? (In case you don’t, it was June of last year, during an interview with Norah O’Donnell of CBS News.) On Wednesday, a court ruling was issued that offers an illuminating case study of just how our new president deals with debt.

    Ostensibly, the ruling by U.S. District Judge Kenneth A. Marra went against Trump: A golf resort in Jupiter, Florida that he had purchased in 2012 was ordered to pay $5.8 million to some 65 aggrieved former members. But that doesn’t even begin to tell the story of what really happened.

    When Trump bought what is now known as Trump National Golf Club Jupiter, it was a decade old and its owner, Ritz-Carlton, was looking to unload it. Although the resort was built as part of a successful development, the club itself had never made money, losing over $1 million a year. Trump snapped it up for $5 million.

    He also agreed to take on some $40 million in liabilities. Much of that debt was owed to club members in the form of refundable deposits they had paid when they first joined. They ranged from $35,000 to $200,000. When a member wanted to quit, he put himself on a resignation list and waited for the club to add new members. New deposits would then be used to reimburse people who wanted to leave. In the meantime, the members on the resignation list continued to pay dues and use the club.

    Trump, of course, could have continued this system, which would have cost him nothing. But he wanted to spruce up the place and make it “ultra-prestigious” and “world class,” as he put it at the time. For that, he needed cash. And the easiest way to get that cash was to grab it from the members.

    Shortly after the sale closed, Trump held a meeting with the members. He told them that refundable deposits were “impractical” given the investment he wanted to make in the club. So he gave them three choices, none of them appetizing.

    Members who gave up their deposits and stayed in the club would get a small, three-year reduction in their annual dues, plus the right to play (for a fee, of course) at other Trump courses. Members who wanted to stay in the club but didn’t want to give up their refundable deposits would be hit with an immediate dues increase. And those on the resignation list — more than half the club at that point — were “out,” as he put it in a letter he sent to members a few days after the meeting. “I don’t want them to utilize the club, nor do I want their dues,” he wrote.

    Sure enough, beginning on Jan. 1, 2013, the members on the resignation list were barred from using the club. So they sued, claiming that because they could no longer use the club, the resort had broken its contract with them and was thus obligated to repay their deposits within 30 days.

    In classic Trump fashion, both Trump and his son Eric denied in depositions that they had kept any of those on the resignation list from using the club. Eric Trump even said that such an exclusion would “violate a fundamental principle of life.” But the evidence was so overwhelming that on the witness stand last summer, Eric Trump was forced to acknowledge that the plaintiffs had indeed been barred from the club.

    Trump’s lawyers argued that the contract gave them the right to change the rules, but Judge Marra ruled on Wednesday that the plaintiffs’ interpretation was correct. He ordered that the president of the United States pay the 65 plaintiffs $4.85 million in deposits, plus $925,010 in interest.

    Here’s the key to understanding this deal: $5.8 million is a lot less than the original $40 million liability. Despite this legal setback, Trump essentially gained control of most of the Jupiter members’ deposits. Many of the members who lived or time-shared in the development gave up their rights to the deposits; they didn’t really have a lot of choice. Many others sued individually and wound up settling for 30 or 50 cents on the dollar as they saw their litigation costs rise.

    Whether Trump winds up paying the $5.8 million or not — and his lawyers are vowing to appeal — he has come out way ahead at the expense of the club’s members.

    The king of debt indeed. I’ll bet you can’t wait for him to try this tactic on China.

    1. bill

      An ignore feature would be a wonderful option….get a kick out of you haters. The biggest loser in the history of this Country runs up $20 trillion in debt and your talking about TRUMPs Millions hell Clinton lost a Billion what say you
      ( crickets chirping) . Let me guess you reside in one of three States California, New York or Illinois, Meccas of pure genius.

      Stop embarrassing yourself with chump change talk a million is the new $100,000 .

      1. macman1519

        Nothing gets through that thick skull of yours, how bout wasting money on an investgation of electoral fraud.Building an unneeded wall, the guy is an immoral deuche bag and ur blinded support of him puts u in that water. Enjoy your moral low ground. Honest Republicans like McCain, Pratorius and Graham to name a few of a growing number are finding it more and more difficult to ignore their consience for party loyalty. No problem for u though, you have no morals!

        1. Steve

          You’re singlehandedly ruining this blog with your incessant political talk. This isn’t the place! Gary asked you to cut it out. Frankly, I hope he cuts you out.

  36. Goild

    MegaMind,

    Thanks for asking.

    I use 5 minutes candles. I do not have a big trading station, just a 22″ diagonal monitor.
    I have two rows. On the first one there is on the left GLD, then NUGT, then TIP.
    On the bottom row I have UUP (In lieu of USD), then SPY, and then a quote and messages window.
    If GLD, NUGT, and TIP align bullish is a sure trade. But many times I buy on situations of low probability but at extremes so I can make say 0.02 to 0.08 cents. I play 2k shares, sometimes 4K shares, 8K shares or more. Usually playing too many shares is bad as my judgement is impaired and my stubbornness increases much so it is hard to get rid of the shares. This is for day trading. I do not use hard stops and do many trades. I gather they like me very much a Fidelity as my phone calls get answered right away. They have excellent customer service.
    I just focus and feel comfortable with NUGT. We are good friends and I am very familiar with it.
    Say this morning I struggled more than often to get $600 early in the morning. This period is when I make most of the day trading money. Then I chickened at 2:00 PM, but once I saw the emerging spike on gold I got on board with NUGT to add $700 more. I new there was a divergence between gold and NUGT and so did not hesitate even know I also new of a possible bull trap. Because we are so much in touch with the situation I was regretting to be out, and so close to the end I got into NUGT at $10.98 to sell it just before 8:00 PM.
    I hope this helps. If you have more questions just ask.
    You may want to read the blog of a very talented day trader Scott @
    http://bankrobbertrades.blogspot.com/

  37. Goild

    MegaMInd,

    For day trading, I do not have a trigger indicator. It is just knowing the behavior of NUGT and taking advantage of extremes. I also relay much on support and resistance, and on the averages. Do not use MAC, RSI or Stochastics.

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