Well our stops were hit so we are now back in cash.

The leveraged portfolio is up 158%.

The unleveraged metal portfolio is up 82%.

Now we will have to watch and try to determine when the daily cycle has bottomed and then decide if we want to reenter.

We made some nice profits on this rally and I may just decide we made enough and we’ll wait for the next ICL in May or June.

In the meantime there should be a DCL in the stock market sometime soon and that may be the next long trade opportunity when it occurs.

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48 thoughts on “SMT UPDATE

        1. terrywg

          According to many bugs here rising interest rates are good for gold.

          Another prime example of selective memory.

          Btw, you should know by now that the charts always foretell macro events.

    1. Pedestrian

      Nice man!

      I sold at the top today. Got 18.35 on JDST right near the close and almost had second thought about waiting but my sensible side said take it and run. So I will sleep good again. Especially knowing I was right all along. The bugs have really got to stop calling me a troll though. Its so unseemly.

      1. ras

        That is great. The decline may not be done yet. With occasional bounces, it may have further to go. Name calling has no place in civilised discourse. Gary was way ahead of himself calling for several weeks of upside run. It is best to take it one day at a time. Anyway, he got stopped out. No harm done.

  1. Don

    Ped, you are still deep underwater with your silver shorts. I wouldn’t get too excited about how far the PMs might drop. I expect a sharp but brief pull back.

    1. Pedestrian

      Not really Don. That trade is quite small and its the reason I have never let it bother me. It was an impulsive purchase, a minor bet and I still think it will all come back. So time is on my side if my theory is correct. I am pretty sure I have said that a few times already. The JDST trade was well worth my time though and I am happy it never went against me as the bugs kept warning it would.

    1. terrywg

      You made 4 portfolio changes in 1 week. I’m going to be interested in seeing you change your definition of day-trader.

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL I traded this intermediate rally almost perfectly so far and we have the profits to prove it.

        Now I just have to decide if I want to try to pick the DCL or just forget about the rest of the intermediate cycle and just wait for the summer ICL before trying again.

        I’m leaning towards ignoring the sector till summer even though I think we still have another leg up.

      2. vin

        terrywg, Gary is a genius. He also has suggestions for long term investors. He is of the opinion that one day jnug/nugt will trade in the range of $500-1000/unit. I think he trades frequently to make even more money for the subscribers. I would love to be a subscriber but except for my dislike of the auto-renewal feature. As a customer I hate to give control to a merchant. Though I repeat that Gary is a genius.

        It is called a falling knife. I bought jnug today. I guess if one considers that it is a 3X I would say it is catching a falling nuclear devise. But, then life is an adventures. If one becomes too conservative, life becomes dull.

  2. GMoney

    Warning: I picked up some NUGT at 9.38 towards the close. Because I bought it it will most likely go down further and soon.

      1. Pedestrian

        I’m looking to buy JNUG and NUGT today or tomorrow as well. Just depends on how the chart looks. The decline was sharp and furious but no guarantee its over yet so I don’t want to get in too early as that is an assumption the bounce back will be a “V” shaped reversal. And those are not really that common. More typically we will see a week or more of consolidation around a bottom with several good chances to buy it before it takes off again. Patience really pays off at such times.

  3. Dday

    Daily gold/nugt charts were massively overbought, nothing more to be said. Ignore technicals at your peril. On a positive note now massively oversold.

  4. bigglaze

    Yeah there was a metals video someone posted and they had thought the bottom would be after March, when all this is over and done with. Looks like they might be right after all!

  5. Robert

    Ahmmm what the hell happened today…Gary, Ped?? I have never seen anything like this. Look on the daily gold chart, ithas been going up steadily since 1225 while Gdx diverged and has been going down since the 25 level. Today gold has dropped about 10 bucks and the selloff in miners is unbelievable. What will happen if gold goes back to 1200? We might retest the Dec lows?

    This has to be manipulation, just cannot understand.

    1. Pedestrian

      Robert, all I can tell you is that when you see a divergence as big as the one I brought up on the site a few days ago you really have to take stock and consider your options. Recall that miners lead metals so what we had with the stocks falling versus gold rising was a pretty good signal to get short. A lot of people seem to have taken the signal seriously and shorted or sold their shares because that’s what moved markets today.

      On the bright side there *may* be a swift bounce back coming but I am not sure yet since gold looks like its fall will continue awhile longer. We will have to look again in the morning and judge by how the bats and vampires traded overnight.

      1. Robert

        Yes Ped and remember I was the one who pointed out to you of the divergence between USD and gold when the started to move together. Shortly after that we then had divergence between gold and miners. It all was a sign, I should have realized. Too late now, I don’t like wat I’m seeing. Might just stop teasing miners from here and buy gold 1200 or lower

    2. Gary Post author

      I told everyone that if the banks could take out Wednesday lows it would trigger a bunch of stops. That’s why we had our stop there. I didn’t want to get sucked into that selling frenzy when they triggered those stops.

      When I saw the miners being capped Thursday and Friday I had a suspicion this might be coming.

      Now we just have to figure out where the banksters are going to let this bottom at and if we want to continue to play the game or wait for the next ICL.

        1. Gary Post author

          I keep warning people not to short anything that the PPT is protecting and yet people just keep losing more and more money doing it.

          The correct strategy is to use that protection to your advantage. Wait till a correction occurs and then trust that the PPT will rescue it.

          When stocks finally do give us a correction don’t be afraid to buy long and trust the Fed to pump the market back up.

  6. Robert

    This is not bull market behaviour don’t care what cycles are saying. Today’s one day move is more powerful than any of the rally starting from December. There is a high chance that GDX CAN RETEST December lows

    1. vin

      Robert, How can you say? Have faith. Gary has told us most of the people never make any money because they trade. Haven’t we been told that one day jnug/nugt will exceed $500 per unit? Are you in doubt? How can you? Have faith. Gold is Bull!

    2. Don

      Robert, you have got to find another asset to play. You are looking for ‘reasons’ for why gold and the miners do what they do and that just isn’t how works. The game is about fooling people like you to be on the wrong side of a trade so that your cash can end up in someone else’s account. That is the brutal truth.

      1. Robert

        I have to admit gold miners have become too difficult to trade. It’s best to just day trade it that way u don’t get caught in big declines. Yes u won’t make near the amount of money as a swing trader like Gary but at the end of the day u will be able to sleep at night because all positions are closed at end of day.

        Yup I’m goin to try and trade other asset classes. Maybe futures. Actually I might stop trading it’s too hard and not really making money. You might as well buy and sell stuff on eBay.

  7. Don

    Stops??? Gary, how can you use stops when trading something as volatile as gold and the miners and NOT call yourself a day trader? You would have been whipsawed in and out dozens of times in the last month alone! BTW, you might want take note of the fact that I posted quite clearly on Friday that I had sold all my leveraged positions in anticipation of a pending decline and did not wait until AFTER today’s dump to say so.

    1. Gary Post author

      Why would stops whipsaw us out multiple times?

      I put my stops where they belong. If they get hit then more often than not it means we should get out of the way because further downside is coming.

      Today was a classic example. I knew if the banks could push the miners below Wednesday’s intraday low it would trigger a ton of stops (that were placed when longs bought the reversal on Wednesday) and intensify the selling. We didn’t want to get caught in that selling frenzy so that’s why I placed my stop where it was.

      Now we need to figure out when and where the DCL is likely to occur and if we want to trade the next leg up or just wait till the summer ICL.

      It may have occurred today. We have a Bollinger band crash signal and a large BoW number. I need to see the sentiment levels and then I’ll decide how to proceed going forward.

  8. roadrunner

    just noticed that there was a new thread
    posted this on the last thread for my new best friend Pedestrian.

    February 27, 2017 at 1:10 pm

    @Ped, you’re a funny guy. You must have ADD or reading comprehension problems as you did not read my posts….you should go read all my posts, what, 10 ? …but I guess I left a good impression on you…I appreciate that. Doesn’t bother me if you call goldbug, fiestabug, roadkil. You just sound silly.

    i told you my positions last night. 3 SI @ avg. price 16.58 stop 17.50 Nothing else in the PM space.
    Today raised stop to 17.75 (posted above this morning) so I have secured minimum profit of $1,17 an ounce x 15K ounces. AND i could sell it all now for an additional .40 cents per ounce. But, I am sure you did better than me on your jdst trade though. Congrats.

    Now as for your positions in the PED fake account. You should be happy.
    We short at the open short 1 GC @ 1255. Stop @1263 (in case it bounced over 1260) but we got stopped out for an 8 ounce loss but re-entered the short at 1259 Stop @1265 (just above high of today, then lowered stop to breakeven, 1259. So your Ped fake Gold short is down 8 oz (realized) and up 8 ounces (unrealized) as of this posting. so not too bad for the gold short…you tell me when you want to cover. or move the stops up.

    For Silver. short at 18.34 stop @ 18.60 so while didn’t start out great you’re up .14 an ounce as of now. So will leave stop as is and see how we finish.

    i would say the shorts have had a good day.

  9. crow

    Well, we got the kind of surprise that the precious metals markets like to deliver from time to time. Wow!

    Tuesday is not usually a big down day for metals. In fact, bounces tend to occur on Tuesdays. Maybe this is because the cut-off for COT reporting is Tuesday afternoon. I don’t know. In any case, I doubt that we will get another big down day in the miners tomorrow. We may get a good bounce. Wednesday will be the day that really tells the story. I am still worried that we have the employment report coming on Friday, which tends to bring volatility to the metals.

    One question for everyone: don’t you get enough challenge struggling with the market, trying to make money? Why also struggle with each other so much? When I post, I am hoping that someone will criticize my ideas, or maybe support them, because I need all the help I can get in dealing with the market. I don’t care to engage in a battle of predictions with other posters. Sometimes I am right and sometimes wrong. It is the ideas that matter. We all want to understand a market that is very opaque and at times dangerous.

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