47 thoughts on “A NEAT TRICK

  1. Don

    Gary, you just showed us how to write and charge for our own market letters! But seriously though, you are right. AVI is just one who is skilled at covering all the possibilities in much the same way as you just described. He is never wrong and has become a legend in his own mind. I tried his methods for a while and found that sometimes I made money but more often did not make a dime or lost money. I finally gave up trying to make sense of his ‘twist and turn’ analysis. Others swear by him. Not for me.

  2. earthkitten

    You’re exactly right Gary. You keep doing what you’re doing.
    Avi is lost as a goose in a hail storm. Anyone with any sense
    knows no one is going to make every call right. You call it like
    you see it & we can all respect that. You may not make every
    call right, but your percentage is pretty darn good. Thanks!!!

  3. mark miller

    I’m sorry I disagree. Nearly every service I know of has an entry price, stop loss price and target price. That’s what is missing with some of your calls Gary … you didn’t have a stop loss price because you said Gold was in a bull market and bull market corrects all mistakes. Not having a stop price is what blows up accounts. I understand your theory that stop losses will get picked off by the banks. One way to honor your stop loss is waiting until the end of the day and not intraday when the algo’s are running wild. Stop losses work, not using them can lead to blowing out your position.

    1. Gary Post author

      The stop was at 1275. We then got in at the bottom of the intermediate cycle and recovered all our loss and then some.

      So what do you mean blowing out our position?

  4. earthkitten

    Following is a quote from Avi today: As long as GDX holds over 22.30 level , we’re going
    to August highs. If 22.30 breaks, then GDX heading to 20 region. What a clown.

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s exactly like I said. He’s covered both sides of the trade. No matter what happens he’ll claim to have called the move perfectly.

  5. zkotpen

    If anybody would be a Gary-basher, it would be me, for my experience in late 2012 and into 2013. But I’m not. I take full responsibility for (1) adding leverage to Gary’s calls back then; (2) having no risk management in place; and (3) lazily expecting somebody else to do my market analysis for me, in lieu of getting down to business and learning to do it myself.

    So I just listen to what he says, sometimes I agree, other times I don’t. But instead of bashing, I can clearly see Gary’s strength & weaknesses:

    Strengths: Good instincts, decades of experience, and charisma.

    Weakness: Lack of math & science background, which inevitably leads to subjectivity.

    I also greatly appreciate the fact that Gary has toned down his approach since 2012. In that sense, the bear market in gold has been his best teacher.

    So these days, Gary thinks the bear market in gold is over based on the 200 week SMA; I think it’s not going to be over for a decade or so, based on the 400 week SMA.

    But who cares?

    In the short and medium term, we’re looking at the current market in gold with great caution for at least the first half of 2017, if not the entire year. Wave Principle technicians are baffled, classic TA-ers are seeing cups where I only see 4: My Bad Monkey coffee cup; my Chinese clay tea steeper thingy I use as a coffee cup, since it has better thermal insulation properties than a ceramic cup; my lime green cup which serves as a drinking glass; and my sky blue cup that makes a terrible coffee cup, because it widens from base to brim, causing hot contents to cool quickly. Head and shoulders? There’s a mirror in front of my desk these days, so I just see one head and two shoulders, and it’s backwards — I just raised my left hand, and the head and shoulders I looked at raised its right, and we were looking each other right in the eye!

  6. bginvestor

    Gary S.

    Let’s discuss the recent swirl.. I’ve read the blogs and here’s the deal..

    The investment community is one of the few industries that it is professional to disclose exact profits. Actually, its quite necessary because in most cases, its the only measure for an investor to choose an investment advisory service. Disclosing exact trades provides information like investment style, risk, money management, and overall success. Gary, can an investor know right now what your performance is in the last two to three years??

    I wouldn’t choose any investment advisory service that doesn’t fully disclose all trades because its not just about the monthly fees, its about the large sums of cash that I have put up that’s at risk. It’s serious business.

    Think disclose, disclosure, disclosure.

    BEFORE THE “I WANT TO SUBSCRIBE TO GARY LINK”, THERE SHOULD BE A TABLE THAT SHOWS YOUR ACTUAL ENTRY/EXITS THAT DEMONSTRATES PAST PERFORMANCE.

    (Even freakin Chris Vermullen at least does this)

    For many, your numbers don’t add up. This is what is causing the swirl. If you wish, I can add a link to show you THOSE numbers, but I think you already know where it is.

    Its time that new subs understand your past performance; if they still want to subscribe to you, that’s on them.

    If you want some of the so called trolls to start coming off your back, I just gave you one of the keys.

    PS Just a suggestion (I don’t really give a shit either way, just a little bored on a Sunday night)

  7. zkotpen

    Goild,

    “I need to make big bucks. And more big bucks.”

    I’m just not feeling the hunger, my friend.

    There are 2 ways I’m aware of to break free of orthodox thinking:

    1. You actually do think differently; or

    2. Hunger, as in, huge motivation, to question your adherence to normalcy and its beliefs. (Hint: Swapping one normalcy for another doesn’t count!)

    Kama Swami: “What can you do, Siddhartha”?
    Siddhartha: “I can think, I can wait, and I can fast”
    From “Siddhartha”, by Herman Hesse.

  8. Goild

    zkotpen,

    Good to hear from you.
    It takes me time to try to digest your wisdom.
    Perhaps one of these days I would understand.
    Tomorrow, this week, will bring new things.
    Gold is already up and I am long on gold.

    Now is late and need to go to sleep to be ready for the action tomorrow.
    Have a good rest too.

  9. Dday

    This is how subscription services work……

    When a call is right:
    -An immediate Guru status appears. The insults start flying….. I told you so!!!….regardless of how many incorrect previous calls were made…

    When the call is wrong:
    This is the time when sensible muted posts appear…. The guarantee calls, and bold predictions are quietly forgotten…

    and the cycle repeats….

    The real trick is maintaining an illusion of invulnerability. Basically how to turn bad calls somehow into good ones…….Thats what i’ve taken from reading gold investment blogs over the years……

  10. ARends

    This is a very interesting short video indicating small caps fall and hig caps rise between dow and Russell. the divergence since December clearly indicate to me that drop in dow is imminent in the short term or the drive of large capital in US blue chips for that bubble without the fundamentals for that bubble Gary talks about.

    How do we get the bast of that wave? QQQ and ?

    http://www.elliottwave.com/Stocks/COTD-Letting-the-Market-Interpret-the-Market-Less-Liquid-Small-Caps-Weaker-Than-Big-Caps?sc_camp=A9F1AE2D07734D05871594CD0DED7A54

    1. Gary Post author

      Perma bears tried to use this same logic back in 2014. Yes the market is due for a correction soon but a divergence in small caps doesn’t indicate a major market top.

  11. Mac

    When will people learn. Being a trader or investor and running an investment service are two entirely different businesses. One actually makes money trading while the other makes money selling newsletters or trade alerts. He who can, does. He who cannot, teaches.
    The industry really is just selling hope and dreams of riches to people who are looking for an easy solution. I’ve said it many times before; vest the time and effort and learn to do for yourself.

      1. Mac

        Of course you are gary. That’s why you have you a newsletter.

        I don’t know the time frame that you’re referring to but if that’s 130% in Q1 then you should do about 500% annualized. I’m not too good at math but can someone tell me how much a $1000 investment compounded annually at 500% would be worth after 10 years? Not sure I’d bother selling a $200/yr newletter if I were in your shoes with those types of returns.

  12. Steffmeister

    #zkot

    “So these days, Gary thinks the bear market in gold is over based on the 200 week SMA; I think it’s not going to be over for a decade or so, based on the 400 week SMA.”

    1. No the Goldbear aint over yet that is correct!
    2. Hell no, not another decade that is false. The Goldbear will end in 2018/2019 according to mother natures own math!!! There is a major fractal in the gold chart predicting this since the top in 1980!

    late 2018, early 2019 I’ve kept saying this for years now or one and a half atleast. There is of course a scenario B but the probability is favoring scenario A at the moment. Scenario B is an explosive move to the upside in one year to a major new ATH.

    The Bond yield and Gold has the same timeline, look at the bond yield going forward! When the bond yeild puts in a low we got the beloved setup for the great Gold trade!!!

    We are getting close, but first after bond yield bottom and a bond top we will get a major turmoil in markets for months!

    1. Gary Post author

      I suspect it’s just going to be a difficult trading range for metals until the bubble in the stock market pops.

      As long as one can make free money in stocks there isn’t going to be a lot of incentive to fight with an erratic metals sector.

      I think we had the chance to really ignite the metals but the stock market intervention on election night killed it. Now it’s probably going to be a tough slog for at least the next year.

  13. ARends

    A commodity Cocoa that s just turned after many years down LCOC could be of interest just bought last week as senti ment is 7% bull. 2009 it was $64, its now since 2016 long drop to $8. Nice green candle closed above 50- MA on daily. Weekly started showing convergence RSI. Seems like a good buy at the bottom

    1. ARends

      I see diversion on RSI, with what look like a wedge for a long break out move and that could become a cup and handle..but seems beauti lies in the eye of the beholder haha..

  14. Don

    Both IBB and XBI had a top on March second and another slightly lower top on March 15. the weekly charts are rolling over. There should be more downside coming.

  15. KHT

    I averaged in1.5k JDST @14.45. My target is JNUG March lows. JNUG has been on the SOS list all day. AMZN, considered to be a bellwether by many for the SM is also on the top SOS as I am typing this for those short SM or considering it.

  16. Robert

    Gary or anyone whats the deal with gold? Seems to be getting late in the intermediate cycle to make any big upward move. Is the ICL behind now or could there still be a bloodbath phase?

    1. KHT

      My take, and i am a serious Gold/Silver bull long term, is that it has stalled below resistance the last few days at the 1234-1236 area. The USD is falling into a cycle low and should bounce in a week or so bringing weakness to the PMs.

  17. Goild

    I like very much the last minute JNUG pull.
    That gives me breathing for a bit with 10K shares.
    Hopefully tomorrow we will have a continuation to JNUG at $8.5 or more.

  18. Don

    I did not sell the LABD,. The XBI weekly chart looks weak and I believe a stock market correction is coming soon. Still, I hope I don’t regret keeping a triple leveraged fund over night. I sold half my of my ZJG near the close but keeping all the precious metal ETFs. I would rather be in the metals than the miners for the time being.

  19. Goild

    Gold is sinking this evening. So it appears Asia is selling. Though in similar occasions, the next day at the open it comes even. Like a bear trap, hopefully.

Leave a Reply