76 thoughts on “BUBBLE PHASE

  1. ocram

    I don’t know if we are in a bear or in a bull market in PM….but I know FOR SURE one thing….if it’s a bull it is making everything it can to shake off the largest number of people from its back!!!!!!!

  2. Goild

    Gary I took a look quarterly at the SPY since 1994.
    The SM departs currently as much from the averages as when there has been a bubble and then reverse to go down.
    A significant item is the decrease in volume.
    Tomorrow I will start a position shorting the SPY.

  3. Goild

    I take that the low volume and price increase in the last quarter tells about the SM manipulation.

    1. Gary Post author

      There have been countless signs that the market has been trying to top but in a rigged market none of that matters.

  4. GMoney

    Gary, I slightly disagree with you. I think we have been in bubble phase for a while now. We may be in Blow-off phase now.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well pretty much every bubble I’ve seen (with the exception of the bond bubble) has rallied at least 100% in a year or less. We haven’t seen that yet.

      1. lokum_

        I agree here. And I know the two bags I will be holding in the bubble – biotech and banks!

  5. Vortex

    I read Gary’s site every day and it’s amazing to see most everyone locked into legacy thoughts. Trying to explain why this does that, or that does this, using mythologies that have been around for ages that simply don’t function in a government/banking monopoly money world.

    In this current environment with electronic printing presses being employed, with hundreds of P.hd’s sitting in special market rigging rooms sanctioned at the highest level of government along with international banking collusion on a scale never witnessed in history, everyone is still arguing over charts and cycles.

    Not only is the general stock market likely never to correct beyond anything resembling what some of you are banking on, it may in-fact rise for years to come before a meaningful correction. In this current environment the PTB can take this thing anywhere they choose.

    If you’re smart you might want to start to entertain the real possibility that this whole thing is going to power ahead to at-least 30,000, or even 50,000 by 2020-2022.

    When it comes to the PM sector they (PTB) have the power to completely destroy it if they choose to and even keep it down for years. The mining sector is the most hated on the earth and especially the gold and silver sectors of the commodities world. That’s not to say you can’t make money along the way because we all can and do to some degree.

    Don’t get wrong, I love Gary’s site and there is some excellent commentary to be read here. But over all most people are just spinning their wheels.

    Gary’s right and will continue to be for years………shorting the general stock market is for fools to zero their accounts. You will get temporary set backs here and there but printed money and a international flight to safety that hasn’t even started in earnest ensures 30,000 to 50,000 on the DOW with-in your lifetime.

    1. Steve

      Yep, sounds like a reasonable scenario, a decent fundamental analysis of where we stand and the nature of the beast today. However, an equally reasonable scenario suggests that TPTB lose control of the situation. We give our warders a great deal of credit but they’re only men (and women) after all. At some point, they will fail. My hunch is sooner rather than later. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

    2. vin

      And, add to it all the information they have. Their data base is simply beyond comprehension. Not only that, they can access very minute details in minutes, if not in seconds. It is difficult for an individual to stand up to such entities. The way to play this is to join them.

      On the other hand when (and whenever it may be) the “system” does break down, it is will spectacular. Fireworks worth seeing though most of us will not like it, and would wish that it never happened yet it will be something worth seeing. Though I am not sure I will be around to see it.

    3. Pedestrian

      So in a nutshell Vortex you are saying you are smarter than everyone else here and here comes Dow 30,000 with no meaningful corrections along the way. Presumably after the next correction you will be back to admit you were wrong and other people are not such dimwits after all.

  6. Adrian

    I’ve several CFD failed short positions until now, but with a very smal portfolio alocation and tight stop loss.
    Now I will wait until SPX 2438.35 ±5 ISH
    If SPX reach that level, I will go strong short with
    5-10% of my portfolio weighting.
    Good trading all

  7. Goild

    Good morning.

    More pain is coming.

    Studying the charts every day pays.
    I had not thought about it, but one should ask before the market close whether or not leaving shares overnight OVN.
    Sometimes it is clear that is not a good idea to leave them OVN. I wake up realizing that immediate past performance shows that after a good drop GOLD takes some consolidation before going up. The chart $GOLD:TLT shows that an extreme had been reach and that the pendulum has turned for GOLD to fall. So had I paid attention yesterday I would not have left the shares on the table. Actually, I sold 2.5K JNUG shares in the name of prudence before the close. I just sold another $2,5K at a lost of $1280. And I cannot access the other 5K shares as that account does not allows pre market trades. So from the $8K I made yesterday, I currently have lost $3.5K. Good lesson!

    I got now 700 shares of SH to built a position shorting to the SM.

    Wise and good trading to all.

  8. Goild

    Another item to note is that the miners after the recent decline have lost part of their correlation with USD and TIP. Yesterday they were mostly mirroring GOLD.

  9. Goild

    Since the USD, TIP crystal balls are losing luster, then paying attention to Randgold GOLD may be useful.
    Currently it is doing the Darvas boxes and keeping support.

  10. chrisG

    The greatest irony is when Dow was 3 or 4 k below, he said best is old turkey on stock market. That bubble period coming. Then shortly after, he turned cold turkey, expecting a big drop. From which he will then buy. Then, seems like he missed this entire 4k run in SM. Luckily he made from the PM.

    Yes, I now also expect a plunge. Qn is it maybe coming from 22k.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes we made more money in the metals in two months than we could have made in the stock market in two years.

  11. chrisG

    For PM, a better time to invest again could be in May period. PM often find a top in February.

  12. bluelagoon

    Looks like gold may be weak up until the Fed meeting given the following “More clues on interest rate hikes ahead of the central bank’s March 14-15 meeting are expected to come Friday, when Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on monetary policy in Chicago. Vice Chair Stanley Fischer also speaks Friday.
    Futures traders are now pricing in around a 75% chance of a Fed hike in March, up from around 25% at the start of the week, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.
    Odds of a second rate hike in September currently stand at 63%, while a third hike in December is priced in at 53%, aligning market expectations with the Fed’s current forecast for three rate hikes in 2017.”

  13. MattyMan

    Remembered a statistic I read yesterday from this guy Sam Collins… That the S&P was at a record percentage high (11% I believe it was) above its 17 month moving average… More fuel saying the SM “should” correct from these levels…

    1. Gary Post author

      The Dow has a T-1 target around 21500-21700.

      It’s just not safe to short the stock market. The Fed has now created its 5th bubble in 17 years.

      1. MattyMan

        Technically, I’m long volatility… but yeah, I feel nervous about it!
        I have my mental stop in my mind though ready to bail, but I am up on the position a little already which is nice…
        Enough peripheral weakness to be found – miners vs bullion, energy stocks – makes me think stocks are just “ready” to correct

      2. Paul

        Agree… the indexes… Russell and Spx on weekly basis since the last two years going back to 2015 have come out a huge double bottom- having broken almost 2 years of resistances… we have a slightly rising handle before break out… this break out is very healthy. The Nasdaq is even stronger… as far as gold and metals… I would not buy anything that is sitting below it’s 20 MA… I like to see a Rising 20 MA with Price action trading above it or into a Big White Candle… along with Rising CCI. Example of a Week Set Up- ERX is trying to Re-Take 20 MA and CCI cross -0- is flat… Today should be Follow Through…but instead appears to a Stalling action… I would like to See how ERX does after a Sell Off on major indexes… *** Action Plan for today… and probably this week… Staying in Cash- p

  14. Americano

    Serious question:
    I agree with Gary’s point on manipulation of SM. My question is – what specific mechanism(s) is the PPT using to prop the stock market?
    I believe – I’m just curious.
    In other news the same title of this post will be used when Bitcoin breaks $10K. I think BTC just past gold this morning or will any sec.
    I’ve left miners for good to Bitcoin after the recent miner take down. Hope gold still goes to $2K though – due to the physical I’ve accumulated over the years.

  15. Gary Post author

    It’s time to just be patient with the metals. Gold looks like its ready to drop into a DCL. The 5 day RSI isn’t oversold yet and the 10 DMA hasn’t turned down so it’s too early to look for a bottom.

    1. Robert

      Gary, whats the deal with miners and gold. This seems stronger than a DCL could it be going for an ICL instead? You said that the DCL would have been over soon but its going longer now

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold hasn’t formed a DCL yet. A DCL has to push the 5 day RSI to oversold and turn the 10 DMA down.

    2. Paul

      Have you consider using CCI for Buy and Sell Signal’s… instead of an RSI (5) to tell you it is Oversold. I use RSI (2) on a day chart as Early Confirmation- but do not use it as an Oversold Indicator. The Problem I have when telling someone to buy something that is Oversold using RSI (5) is that is does not show the Pivot… when trying to buy the Bottom or Reversal… if you getting in Early and Downtrend is not over traders are stuck with loses… If someone has to use RSI (5) or RSI (2) I would suggest using it after it has gone down under -70 and then Rises back up Over 50 along with CCI crossing -0- with Real Strong Buy and Hold Confirmation with CCI rising above 100… along with RSI (5) n RSI (2) above +70… All this Action should Take Place above 20 MA and above 50 MA
      SUMMARY- CCI BUY SIGNAL- rising above -0- (early buy) and BUY SIGNAL CCI +100 , RSI (5) RSI (2) BUY SIGNAL- rising above 50 (early buy), rising above 70+ BUY SIGNAL… anyone who is not sure about CCI or RSI, you can just use 20 MA and 50 MA and get the same results… if you are buying a Falling 20 MA and price closes below it… then you should avoid it… especially when exhibiting Wide and Loose Days, Gap n Craps, Lower Lows… are sign’s of Churning- p

  16. Dday

    Anyone agree with me that gold weekly looks like a completing head and shoulders pattern?


    Could still see $1300 to match the high of the left shoulder, but I cant see how gold could progress further…

    1. Spanky

      That in no way looks like a head and shoulders pattern. You need to be able to draw a line connecting the base of the shoulders and neck (4 points). the line can be at any angle (i.e., up or down sloping or horizontal).

    2. Paul

      I would not Buy based on that Pattern. Take a look at Gold on Weekly basis going back 10 years… On JNUG n GDX… you can see a H&S this year… but look at 2016… this too me… looks like Rising W or double bottom… 1st Bottoming late in 2015 then topped in July 2016 and the made the 2nd Bottom in 2016… if gold does not take out 1124 approximately last years Bottom… then we could be in the early stages of a Baby Bull for Gold… but like Gary and many other have pointed out… we had a good run earlier and most of have taken those profits… a few might still be holding… from where I see JNUG… which I like to trade… it might have 4 weeks of new base building… into a ICL for possible Buy Set Up… Trade Safe and go with Price Action… for those who want Fast money while waiting- Use Pivot Points or Buy above the Previous Day Close when price action that day has not made a new low… p

  17. Dday

    All too familiar, expectations of a dollar breakdown only to be followed by a breakout. Similar to trying to short the SM.

  18. Option Trader

    As far as I’m concerned, This is not a time to be frustrated. All the long-term charts for silver and gold look Strong. We are now digesting GainS From an impressive multi-month move.
    I haven’t seen any reversal candle yet. Silver is taking the lead and still embedded in an uptrend.
    In fact silver has given me the confirmation it wants to go much higher.
    Now I’m just sitting back And waiting for the Uptrend to continue.

    1. BestOfLuck

      Remember to let us know when you board the Silver or Gold train, conductor!

      I hope to hitch a ride.


  19. dboz

    While gold and silver may be looking OK for now, the miners just keep getting hammered and there are no gains to consolidate, they are all gone. All taking a 10-20% chop at least after earnings now, one by one getting lambasted. EXK is now at Jan 4th levels. There are no profit or gains. Miners are broken. If there is not any upside soon, I am going to move on. There is no reason to be fighting whatever is happening in this sector. These are not pullbacks or corrections they are bear market monkey hammerings of 25-30% drops in 3 weeks.

  20. dboz

    It’s open season for the shorts here. Just piling on big time. It’s so easy for them. Metals up, miners down, short heading into earnings, over night 10-20%+ gains. Every time. It’s literally stealing right now it is so easy. Unfortunately, I don’t short.

    On a side note, overall mine output is dropping. Wonder what will happen with that 1 billion ounce short in silver. Probably nothing.

  21. Don

    I agree that we are in a bubble and that a correction is highly probable. I have committed a significant portion of my resources to being short the stock market. Gold and silver may not be a refuge as it appears that the US dollar is gaining strength and headed for much higher numbers. The dollars monthly chart is quite bullish looking.

    1. Paul

      I would not buy Gold or Silver now just because it is oversold… Being Oversold is not a Buy a Signal… too many big Red Candles taking out the 50 MA on Monday… the Risk- Reward for a bounce Up Towards 50 MA is not favorable… Market Bias- Neutral- stay in cash… *** the fun happens when we see how it all holds up on a big down day- p

  22. zkotpen


    I’ve been meaning to say: Nice of you to remember those posts by CD & me in 2013-14…

    Cheers ~ 🙂

  23. Spanky

    SLV daily chart MACD is doing something very unique, at least over the last 5+ year. It is flattening out after a huge run up and is trending perfectly sideways with extremely little volatility. It never ever does that. Typically, you get sharp up moves followed by sharp down moves in the MACD.

    Something big is coming IMO. You can’t really tell directionally which way it will go at this point, but I am leaning bullish.

  24. Steffmeister

    I am very tempted to enter JNUG at 6 🙂 that trendline goes back to mid 2015.

    This is a precious BEAR and we ahve to wait for a top on the other side of 2020 with a low a year earlier.

    There is a small possibility of a top sooner, in 2018 with much lower probability. The bear rally in PM will start sooner or later. The Stockmarket has hired the fat lady and she is on her way to the stage.

  25. Steffmeister

    Btw, US-T Bond yield (reserve currency crisis coming?) and the Goldmarket is connected by the hip, they got the same timeline. Watch the bondmarket. I expect a rally in yield going forward.

  26. 1970confused

    Gold 1240$ Silver 18$ the miners in the gutter. This has to be the most ridiculous manipulated market ever!?

  27. Pedestrian

    Big breakout on JDST this morning as it rises above the high set on Wednesday. It looks pretty bullish too as it burst out of a bowl pattern that was its consolidation area during February. It has now taken out an important resistance level after back-testing support on the 20 day EMA and bouncing higher. I suspect its headed to the 50 day now although do keep in mind it has also pierced the upper Bollinger band so it might need a little more time to work its way up.

  28. Paul

    Today is the 4th attempted Rally for ERX at 20 MA on Day charts – this is Also the 4th Attempt of CCI to cross -0- and hold above it…ERX R3 38.10, R2 37.03, R1 36.29 Buy Pivot 35.22 S1 34.48. S2 33.41, S3 32.67. These Pivots are just good for today. On an hourly Chart today you can see ERX Traded above Pivot in 1st Hour and Rolled Over just under R1 36.29. All of this action taking Place at 20MA where 3 times earlier this year it failed to hold… so all this sideways action or basing since Dec 12, 2016 makes for a nice long base when it finally does Retake the 50 MA and 20 MA this could be a powerful move… FAILURE TO HOLD THE 20 MA could mean there is more downside to come- p

  29. Pedestrian

    The Nikkie futures triple topped near 19,700 today (hourly chart) and look set to fall back before taking another run at that key 20,000 level I keep talking about. I remain convinced we will see markets correct at the first of two Nikkei resistance levels. If I turn out to be correct call on a market reversal signal then everybody here owes me a hypothetical imaginary Burrito of my choice! 🙂 …because its such a novel idea it was implausible anyone normal would have dreamed it up.

  30. dboz

    Takes serious balls (or stupidity) to continue holding any of this garbage. Massive beat down again. Deep 5 figure loss for me today, second of the week. The only reason to be in this sector is you like pain and you hate your money. No bottom in sight. This is worse than the end of last year. Bigger losses faster this time. FREE FALL. Look out below. Congrats to all those who saw this and got out. I was expecting a pullback but we got a crash.

    1. Pedestrian

      Who knew Bill? Its a complete mystery how this happened. You don’t want to believe it was on the chart all along in spite of the fact I was warning for a month this was coming. Whatever man. I got positioned again and I never lost a cent. You really have to get the emotion out of your trading philosophy and get more objective.

  31. 1970confused

    Gary there is no way you can say that the manipulations are over, they are not!!!!!!!!

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold is due for a DCL and the dollar is rallying. Doesn’t seem out of the ordinary to me.

  32. Gary Post author

    These are the kind of comments we should see at or close to the bottom of a DCL. Gold isn’t quite oversold on the 5 day RSI but it’s getting close. Once it reaches oversold then wait for a swing before trying to pick the bottom.

  33. ocram

    In bull markets we don’t have this kind of action…surprises are (almost) always on the upside,in gold silver and miners are on always on the downside lately.
    If price continue to fall also the huge reverse H&S will be invalidated .
    The problem is what to do if there will be a significative bounce,many analysts are saying : sell the next bounce,the bull is over.

  34. mark miller

    I can’t believe anyone still has the audacity to question Gary. Gary is without a doubt the Jesse Livermore of our time. His calls are spot on. He says he doesn’t have a crystal ball but I think he does, or intuition or magic or just a glaringly superior vision of the markets. In simple terms: He is a trading God … light years ahead of everyone else. Look at the portfolios … REAL TIME calls that are up over 150%. Warren Buffet should be calling Gary for investing advice.

    Sure, some of you will complain that there are holders of JNUG at $23.00 but remember: Gary practically begged on his hands and knees for everyone to get out at 1275. If you did and then followed his calls, you are millionaires. If you failed to get out at 1275 you still may become a millionaire if you can hold through the wiggles to $500 or even a $1,000. Unfortunately, you are not Gary so you will not be disciplined, dedicated and absolute in your investment calls but I assure you Gary will attempt to hold your precious hands and coddle you through any draw down but for some reason I have a feeling you will sell at the bottom then attempt to blame Gary for your loss. Human nature never changes unless you learn from a master such as Gary.

  35. Rubina Ratnakar

    Wow, what a day so far. I don’t know why but I exited all of my long positions in silver earlier today, and then BOOM, the smackdown. I just re-entered at 17.70, 20% of my targeted overall position. Will scale in slowly…
    Short S&P is working out nicely thus far….

  36. Ed

    Lost tons of money last few days from NUGT. Luckily I was trading from $8. Now I am 100% in GDX, and willing to go cold turkey for any duration of time. It appears rate hike probability increased 90%. Without a stock market crash, 75% is the demarcation like FED uses. This FED always test out Wall Street and never surprise them. USDJPY increased accordingly. JPY carry traders will go on for few more days.
    I think Trump made a colossal mistake in claiming $3 T reflation stock market boom is because of him. Even if It is his to take credit, he should never have taken.

    Now all WallStreet SEC and CTFC collusions and data cooking corruptions under Obama is on him now. I am sure next stock market crash the market will lose more than $3T. Then what will he say?

    Someone said that stock markets follow Economic principles of Supply and Demand. With more printed cheap money available with same numbers of shares, it’s natural to see stock market moving up.

    The stock markets can forever elevated using tools like stock buybacks and printing press but the value of Dollar will ultimately catches up. We are in very late stage of strong dollar. Dollar and Gold has inverse relationships. If we are going to DOW 30,000 and which is very much in cards, we are going to have $2,000 -3,000 gold easily. Just remember, Zimbabwe stock market never lost its nominal gross value.

    Don’t play with leverage ETFs unless you have same levels of information and research capability as trading houses. Leverage ETFs will kill you with time-erosion factors.

  37. Spanky

    My EXK getting absolutely destroyed today. We’ll probably see it in the 2’s before it bottoms.

  38. Don

    I was expecting a sharp retreat in the PM sector and expected it to be brief. It may be premature but I just started buying some unleveraged gold miner positions. I am not comfortable with buying anything leveraged just yet. Like Gary said, we may have to wait some time for a better position although I think it will be sooner than later. I still believe shorting the stock market will be a winner.

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