At some point the stock market needs to break the price trend line to confirm a daily cycle decline. The longer they prevent the natural profit taking correction from occurring the bigger the crash will have to be to break that trend line.
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CHART OF THE DAY – Stock Market
Silver is in the green tonight and gold is bouncing off the 10 DMA.
All we need is for stocks to roll over and give us the overdue DCL and it should take the dollar down with it.
That would release the metals to produce the next leg up and for gold to break through the 200 DMA.
I think it basically just boils down to how long can the PPT prevent the stock market from generating the natural profit taking event.
Since USX is on day 18 of a new Intermediary Cycle and USX-SPX are positively correlated, SM complacency may get extended until the rate-hike of FOMC on MAR15 when the ICH of USX is reached.
Until then a DCL of USX and SPX are due after jobs report.
thus both USX and SPX could find their YCLs in June to set a 13-month YC for the dollar, a normal thing since the prior YC was less than 9 months long (Aug2015-May2016).
I’m waiting to see the jobs report on Friday.
I’m staying away from the metals for the time being, But Keeping a close eye on Silver.
I think they hold the market up until they allow time for deregulation to be blamed. 1-1.5 years is my guess. Sometime in 2018.
Looks like FT. KNOX is a joke.
This divergence is unprecedented.
Very interesting article. I looked at the cases of divergence between GDX and GLD in his first study. One thing that he does not mention is that in most cases the SM was rising strongly during the divergence and then turned down afterwards. ie very similar to current situation so far but will SM correct? The exceptions were the first two cases (earliest dates) where the SM was rising sharply but did not turn down. Those were also the cases where GDX did not recover. So Gary is correct that we need to see a downturn in the SM.
Have you all wondered you all could be wrong about dollar. Dollar big rally, gold down, euro down, German dax big rally?
Watching bonds today. If the second leg down is starting and it unfolds as a crash event it could finally break the strangle hold the PPT has on the stock market.
I’ve never seen a bubble deflate gracefully.
SM on rocket fuel this morning after Trump’s speech.
The shorts are betting burned on the stake. This has got to hurt if you are short the SM.
Traders are seeing again why you can’t short stocks. You can only buy dips.
Why does everyone think the dollar going to go down? It’s looking more and more like it is going to make new highs. Wouldn’t that kill gold?
Purely sentiment and cycles. It needs a correction to reset the extreme bullish sentiment that has built up over the last two years.
Amazing how Silver is holding up in all this mess, but like I always say check the tape and walk away on days like this…
I’m actually very excited to see SLV pullback here. I am hoping for a stronger pullback. It’s very important for the next leg up, to squeeze as many longs out as possible now.
As far as TLT, don’t be fooled by today’s action. TLT closed the month of February with a very bullish long term set up on my charts. Now I’m waiting to see how Friday closes to see if it’s ready for a weekly confirmation.
I’ll be making a lot of decisions into Friday’s close.
For a dummy, What does PPT refer to in this blog?
Plunge protection team
How long can JNUG keep going down ?
Gold needs to find its cycle low and stocks need to find their cycle high.
Gold held1220, then held 1230 and now holding 1240. Higher highs, higher lows!!! What is that telling you.
Stocks at fresh highs…again! But UVXY is not making new lows… And UVXY is terrible, so does this mean something?? I hope so because I just bought some!
Well one thing we can say about today’s charts is they sure are interesting. The bears cannot declare victory yet though as the 3 month long support line on gold established since December has not been violated and for all we know it will bounce from there are keep going up. But I am not going to offer a prediction at this point since honestly I don’t know which way it will go once we arrive there. To tell the truth both gold and silver have been surprising me by their resilience in spite of a technical set-up that has been shouting “correction” for weeks already. Something else seems to be going on under the hood. The fact miners keep selling down perhaps warns that there is an exit from equities in anticipation of a market correction. And if that is the case then it might help explain why gold resists a more serious correction as gold would typically rise during a market event. So in a way, a sell off in miners and strength beneath gold are maybe more meaningful than it looks at face value. While its true that gold is finally coming down its also true that the daily chart is not mortally damaged yet. And if gold does bounce back at support I might just take that as a signal to get short the S&P.
Interesting analysis. I keep looking at Silver and wondering why it hasn’t been smashed along with the miners.
Gold setting up for big comeback today
I am not sure about that yet. Gold and silver may both have more downside. My analysis tells me they could go soft and trend down for as long as three months. If you check DSLV (3X inverse silver bear) for example there was something like 8 times the average daily volume of buying yesterday.
So a lot of buyers evidently believe that silver has topped and is ready to fall.
Gold on the other hand is not confirming to quite the same extent if you look at DGLD volumes. They were up roughly double prior months volumes. Both are however significant and worth monitoring since machines do most of the trading and the algo’s are where the real decisions are being made.
Platinum meanwhile appears to be forming a dome during the past three months and may have topped at 1050 so it too could be mean reverting for the next few months. We will have to wait and see if it makes a proper top before knowing for sure though.
Here comes the comeback right on time
And SM coming back, like clockwork, pivot happens most days around this time
Well, my comment yesterday was pretty much dead nuts on regarding how this would play out. Unfortunately I did not deleverage myself and today is another 5 digit loss. I think the miners are defeated at this point. They are damaged. Too big of losses too soon following big losses. No reason for people to keep taking the chance on them as there is really no payoff unless you time it right for those weeks out of the December low. Just when they look like they should spring, boom, smacked down beyond belief when the metal dip in minimal to non existent. 8-9 weeks of upside and now 3 weeks down when metals went up significantly. Really regretting my positions right now and am on the verge of losing hope.
I am not complaining, it’s my own fault, just not much to see here to say things will reverse. Markets are going to take off, dollar following, gold should probably start to give it up in chunks very soon and miners will be back to the stone age for some time. Again, you can’t keep hitting people over the head before there will be even less interest in the sector than there already is.
My only positive outlook is for GDX to hold the bull flag pattern on the weekly but that is on the verge of failing now. It’s only Wednesday but the market is juiced on $1 trillion infrastructure spending. The economy is said to be doing so great yet car and truck rebates are pushing $10k just to get buyers. Again, divergence.
Lev Miners could fall another 33 – 44 percent from here…
I noticed some people referring to the jobs report on Friday.
For some reason, the BLS is reporting the Employment Situation the 2nd Friday of the month — this month & next month, only, it seems. Here’s their schedule:
Thanks zkotpen – I also thought it was the 1st of the month as usual. Seems Dec of this year is also the only other time besides March that it’s the 2nd Fri of the month.
I think the bottom for JUNG is close.
I managed to get back the 5K JNUG shares effectively at $6.9.
As per the other 5K they are in red but I am about even.
Hopefully this is about the bottom.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say it all boils down to the stock market. When stocks finally roll over and give us a DCL then the dollar should top and gold should bottom.
The cycle is way overdue for a move down and sentiment has been extreme for weeks. They managed to keep the market propped up into the SOTU like I expected. Now it’s just a question of whether they will allow it to correct ahead of the March rate hike.
30Y Yields Tops 3% As March Rate Hike Odds Spike Above 80%
I’m now on the look out for the next crash phase of the bond implosion.
If I’m right then it’s going to get a lot harder for the establishment to keep the stock market propped up.
Rate hike? Gary; didn’t you recently say the percentages for a rate hike were very low and that in the past they never raise rates unless the pct. is at least 75%.
The odds spiked up to 70% yesterday.
Pretty good chance they are now going to hike.
I should say and I embarrassed to say that I got on Monday into a bad habit of catching the falling knife and insisting and lost a good bunch day trading. Yesterday I recovered about 1/3 of the loss, and if JNUG works out then I may fully recover and have a gain.
Wise and good trading to all.
This is a good position for GDX to recover and complete its right shoulder. It appears to be in a multi month inverse head and shoulder pattern. Not saying it’s going to happen, but it sure would be nice,
Gold, Silver, Gdx or Gdxj go up a few points from the Dec. lows and everyone is freaking out that this market was overbought blah blah. The Nasdaq has gone up 40% in the last year(4200 to 5900), the Dow rsi is over 80 on the weekly charts up 13 of the last 17 weeks and gone parabolic, the S&P 500 is in the same boat, not to mention the banks are insanely overbought. Not going to end well…..
Dollar dropping, USDJPY dropping, gold rising, silver rising, miners still dropping.
the miners r recovering at least for now…
I am down to the same level I was at 2 weeks out of the December low now. 6 weeks of gains are pretty much gone. Miners are at mid January levels or worse now when gold and silver were WAY BELOW the levels they currently sit. It’s like clubbing baby seals at this point. No mercy and easy pickings.
Gold has done what I was worried it might do by bouncing right off support. So the rising wedge is still intact and we might presume another high is in store as the wedge extends. I didn’t trade it today because I had a doubts and despite the declines so far there is not a clear break of the trend that might open the way to a high confidence trade. So its kind of a whipsaw for the moment.
Well, if there ever was a blow-off top it would probably look like today.
Uncertainty is still the key word. Trumps speech was great last nite. He is improving his reading and staying on topic. But nobody believes his plans will be allowed by the republicans, let alone the democrats. Therefore, gold will continue to rise. Higher highs higher lows are staring u in the face.
Am I reading this correct? LOL Convert?
I couldn’t stay on the sidelines anymore. Just shorted at 2396. Will scale in slowly unless I get stopped out.
Rick Ackerman did it too : http://www.kereport.com/2017/03/01/key-targets-hit-markets/
Too early. You guys might recall its my view that the markets won’t correct until the Nikkei hits at least 20,000 points. That is the reference point for the markets next major resistance level although there is another more compelling resistance top just above it. The reason I watch that chart is because there really isn’t anything else that offers guidance from prior historical peaks from which to judge where the next top might come in. This has been agonizingly slow in coming though. nitially I felt we could see it happen almost three weeks ago but instead the Nikkei just churned sideways burning off time and we are still not quite there. With the Dow going parabolic as viewed from the monthly chart though the time might be quickly nearing. And once that happens gold should hit bottom in conjunction with the long bond as both will be ready to rock and roll. Anyway, I realize this sounds like a nutty theory but keep your eyes on it anyway. I will leave a comment as we get close in on resistance and we shall just see how right or wrong I am going to be.
Just a little history lesson.
UVXY is now at $20.15.
Are we going to miss it again?
This can be the trade of a lifetime?
What are the assets in UVXY Goild?
I bought some this morning…
Nice finish to the day for it…
I am looking for a nice gain from this trade, but timing is tough with this instrument – when it sells off it really sells off – but long volatility looks like a good bet right now, maybe for a couple weeks leading into the next FOMC
For those waiting on the NFP employment report, it s to be released NEXT Friday, March 10th.
Several months ago if the DOW spiked 300 points Gold & Silver would have gotten smashed.
Not a buy and hold market for a lot of things, waiting for big moves up or down, then jumping in for rebound. Working out well the last few weeks. After first 45 min of market open is key as pivot occurs then.
I am going to build a position on UVXY so I got 250 shares.
Who else wants to join and keep track?
MattyMan is already in.
Goild I am also interested…seems very promising. Could you gimme some info about UVXY briefly ?
re: DSLV A newsletter/analyst reco’d that yesterday. He has enough subscribers to make a difference.
Now heavily short the stock market. All silver and platinum positions are unleveraged but and not adding any more long positions.
I really do not know too much.
I think Don mentioned it and it looks like a good ETF to start building a position.
Did you keep JNUG on the way down?
It wasn’t me ever recommending UVXY. UVXY can ALWAYS be bought at a cheaper price as it is designed to rapidly decay towards zero.
Once in a while it will shoot up but buying and holding is a losing game no matter how you slice it.
Thanks for clarifying that Don.
Yes Goild I kept it all the way down. I am in minus since September … I am not sure if I am ever going to the plus side but I am willing to hold them…I may be wrong! Miners are acting very weird compared to actual gold and that confuses me. Not sure if I should hold on or take the loss…I bought some UGAZ recently but that one neither seems going up…
Was doing some research and couldn’t help but notice that RSI(21) on the daily chart is showing 80.50. As per my charting platform, this is the highest ever reading, I mean EVER.
Can someone please confirm?
This has blowoff top written all over it.
Absolutely, but it’s very hard to pick the top of one of these things. Just be prepared to buy the crash, or mini crash when it comes.
Yes, its getting a little nuts. LABU is up 10 dollars in just the past week and its moved more than 30% since I wrote to you guys about a month back that it has broken out of a symmetrical triangle. Not sure if my comments were convincing enough to encourage anyone to buy but it has been good. The thing is, I still think it could get as far as 75 dollars before this is done if the vertical ramp keeps going. So I might add more. What the hell…I’m not afraid of any damned correction!
OK, Don, I got rid of my 250 UVXY shares. I think I made 5 bucks on it.
Don is right, UVXY is in no way an investment!
Would be an amazing instrument to scale in and sell short over the medium-long term… but I have heard it mentioned that it is difficult to do (not sure why exactly)
But, I really like that the VIX consolidated around, rose above, and then today held it’s 65 day SMA – which is now flattening and hopefully curling up… Plus, impressive new highs for stocks, but no new lows for UVXY…
2 week +/- trade if it goes well for me… not expecting a crash, just a decent correction… actually, looking forward to buying this dip (if it does!) as Gary has been harking
I’ve never been able to borrow any shares to short.
UVXY is a sucker’s game! decay too fast..
Richard Russell predicted a blow-off phase to this market:
Isn’t it interesting how they timed the SNAP IPO (after hours tonight) so well? “They” must have known that Trump would give a big boost to the stock market. They have probably been helping the market to go up for days, in preparation for the IPO. Now, once that is over, I think we will be due for some kind of pullback at least. So a pullback in the broader stock market could start very soon now. Today certainly does have the feel of a blow-off top. But who knows? As Gary says, the prices of stocks are so artificial these days that anything can happen.
As for gold and silver, the character of the market does seem to have changed. A couple of years ago, we would have had a big sell-off under the conditions we have now. Do you suppose the physical markets are starting to exert some influence, finally? Or maybe the manipulators are no longer willing to risk getting caught in illegal activities? There just don’t seem to be the same raids on the market now as there were before. I hesitate to even suggest that the character of the market might have changed because this market is so fickle and the gold perma-bulls have been making claims about the character of the market changing (implying an imminent price launch to the moon) every time there was a little bounce in the precious metals for several years. Still, the resilience in the market does lend support to Gary’s conviction that a new bull has begun.
Would it have been any funnier if that company had been named Snap, Crackle, Pop?
Or maybe Snap, Crash, Belly-flop!
Sometimes you just have to laugh at the way the message gets sent out since its so comical. I don’t think there is any coincidence at all that an IPO for a company called SNAP is been sold just as we approach a blow-off top.
Its too perfect to ignore.
The fact POG and POS refuse to lose is encouraging from the bulls perspective. Stubborn resistance to the raid on the miners. If the metals can continue to hold the miners will continue their recovery I think, despite the usual long recovery from such a big smackdown.
I think odds still favor miner weakness for a while, but if the market ever realizes what’s happening, look out above!
Can someone help me understand why GDXJ sports a 4% dividend? Am I incorrect? Or is it some sort of scam?
All – the daily chart on JNUG looks like it’s ready for a solid bounce up….with 50MA within 50cents of 100ma….could today be the low and next target $15 (200ma)? To answer someone else’s question on UGAZ….it looks ready for a bounce IMHO – perhaps to $17ish.
How long have I said to be long stocks?
Bullish index on the financials is @ 91% on the weekly….they say as go the banks goes the market, up now but for how long. Ready to short with FAZ! Hopefully some of that comes into the PM’s market.
Miners closing in @ the high’s of the day, a nice reversal. POSITIVE.
I don’t know if it’s a bear or a bull market in PM….but I know FOR SURE one thing….if it’s a bull it is making everything it can to shake off the largest number of people from its back!!!!!!! :-((
Today was a good day.
I like more JNUG as compared to NUGT; it has more volatility.
Let us hope that tomorrow we do not have a reversal; but if it threatens let us sell and go short.
However, JNUG likely wants to hit the averages. Though GOLD poses a threat.
The SM continues knots and tomorrow I might start shorting it.
UVXY closed at $21.34 and I sold it at $20.34. Apparently we will miss getting on board with it.
My secret charts tell something is going to happen. Either gold will take off or it will sink
Over the weekend the wonder was about why the YEN mirrors GOLD, and also TIP.
TIP makes sense as it measures inflation and GOLD is a measure of inflation.
But why the YEN?
I think every think comes down to the bonds.
So the ratio $GOLD:TLT and FXY:TLT tell and interesting story.
$GOLD:TLT is saying something is about to happen.
Pedestrian probably can give us more insight.
Hi Gary and everyone, I read most of the post- not sure how this blog fits into my trading- I have commented several times on things and either get ignored or people are not seeing my Post. So this is post to see if I fit in with this Blog group. I’ve thought about subscribing to your pay service… I read and listen to most of your videos. But it seems you only respond to certain group of Bloggers… my comments have been mostly positive of your imput… that why I am not sure if my post are even being seen by other bloggers… I am not a troll, daytrader or goldbug, just a swing trader who has been playing the market since the 90’s using Charts studies methods from IBD- the investors business daily. The other thing I have noticed is the site is down just about every other trading day? Is that the case with paid subscribers… It is kind of hard to get a good feed for a service as for wanting to be a Potential New Subscriber… you want new Paying Customer’s then understand that some of the new people that come to your Blog are testing your service out. This Post is to see if the Owner actually Reads or has anyone interest New Blogger here who may actually want to be a subscriber? ***Note- I never wanted to have to make this Post… but feel it is needed… not a Troll or an Attention seeker… just trying to see if this worth my time and maybe money going forward- take care- p
We had some problems with the site crashing when everyone hits it at the same time. We’ve mostly got it fixed now.
SLV daily chart MACD is doing something very unique, at least over the last 5+ year. It is flattening out after a huge run up and is trending perfectly sideways with extremely little volatility. It never ever does that. Typically, you get sharp up moves followed by sharp down moves in the MACD.
Something big is coming IMO. You can’t really tell directionally which way it will go, but my guess is it will be an upwards move given that the MACD lines are over 0.