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Gary, I would agree as XLE would seem to have been foreshadowing weakness in oil for some time now.
Two days ago I pulled the trigger on an Oil Short Trade with SCO based on standard TA along with my analysis of where Oil was in its longer term 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle. Two days ago WTIC closed below the 10ema on the daily and yesterday it closed below the 50ma on the daily and the 10ema on the weekly.
The Bollinger bands are crazy tight here which usually signals a big move is coming (see the B-Band width indicator in my 1st two charts in the link below) . Basically I was waiting for the right setup based on my TA work and Cycle analysis from back on Feb 18th. Two days ago, I got the breakdown of the wedge in my fist chart in the link below from Feb 18th.
https://surfcity.co/2017/02/18/wtic-and-xle-update/
My thought at the moment is that the Fed has created another bubble. This one is in the stock market. We are about to enter the crazy phase (after maybe one more pullback) And during the crazy phase the stock market may start to suck liquidity out of all other asset classes as traders start to chase the “free” money in the stock market.
So we need to be careful with alternative assets this year.
Warren Buffett says we are not in a stock market bubble and stocks are still cheap. He is a very wise and experienced investor and one who is very ethical so why would he say this if he was not confident it was true?
We aren’t at the top of the bubble yet. It usually takes about a year and a half to complete. But we are definitely starting one.
Yes buying opportunities for oil and Spy coming. Pedestrian with regards to gold, are you saying it will double top at 1260 or head and shoulders maybe a slightly higher high? What about GDX, back to 25-26 level before turning back down?
Good morning,
There is a lot of money to be made with the miners.
If going long we need to wait for the candles to align.
In the mean time exercise your day trading skills.
So far in the premarket session I got already money for lunch.
Wise and good trading for all.
I am not sure why everyone has gotten so spooked by a relatively small pullback in the PMs. The overnight action confirms that the rest of the world isn’t too freaked out by the American driven sell off. I will be looking for more opportunities in unleveraged gold assets today to add to what I picked yesterday. I would like to see silver in 17.40 range before I would buy levereged silver. Let’s see how the day goes.
Something to think about:
The last intermediate cycle was extremely stretched at 29 weeks. Usually a long cycle is followed by a short cycle. Gold is now on week 11.
It may turn out that gold is going to produce a 14-17 week cycle and is now ready to start down into the ICL. The miners seem to be acting like that is the case.
I’m concerned something weird maybe be happening and that’s why I’ve chosen to just wait for the summer ICL and for the weekly stochastics to cycle back down to oversold before I take another shot at this sector.
If something happens to change my mind I’ll say so. But for now I’ve converted to ultra conservative mode in metals.
in large part because every analyst is so bearish gold & miners thats why
Goild, I noticed from reading past posts that you seem to very skilled at playing the triple leveraged ETFs which is unusual. Unfortunately, you don’t post your buy points beforehand. Do you think you could do that so others (like me) could tag along with your success?
Well, this is an opportunity. Got 5K JNUG shares.
I did day trade an my effective purchase price is about $5.7.
Right now is a buying opportunity. It is way too much down.
Though buy at your own risk.
Miner volume is monstrous today and price is holding, Did we get the load up for the next move up….FINALLY?!
Ok, I bought JUNG at 6.12. I couldn’t get in at your 5.70 price cause it hasn’t been that low in regular trading. So, are you doing all your buying during the off hours trading?
I would think twice about trying to day trade. It is by far the toughest way to make money in the toughest business in the world. The machines are programmed to take money away from day traders.
If I had to guess I’d say less than 1% of all day traders make any lasting money. They may get lucky for awhile, but at some point the market goes against them and they end up giving it all back and then some. The only one who ends up making money is your broker.
jjj
The suggestion is to not depend on someone else to do your trading. Your circumstances are unique and only you can know what is best for you. However, focus only on JNUG and only for day trades with a very small amount of money till you become an expert.
I dropped the 3K shares and so far I have made $18K out of the $32K I lost on Monday for stupidly trying to catch the falling knife and insisting over and over with 10K, and 20K shares. One gets into an unwise mental state. I hope again to find ways to prevent me from doing it again. Remember, one must find the bad trading habits and stop them. One by one. If you are able to identify your bad trading patterns and weed out the bad habits, then you will become a master trader. I guess few people are willing to master themselves.
falling knives have been addicting for me too in the past..
jjj
I posted about $5.7 because I did several trades so that with the money made the effective price was reduced. I think I got at around $5.9.
It is true that day trading is very difficult.
Though there are a zillion ways to make money and it all depends on each individual.
I am finding that a combination of day trading and swing trading works best.
Look some people here have lost substantial amounts of money playing old turkey.
Old turkey means you have to weather drawdowns. There is no way to not have drawdowns if you are going to use an old turkey strategy. The goal is to hold all the way through a secular bull market. It’s not easy but this is how the really big money is made. Warren Buffett didn’t make his billions by day trading. He did however become the second richest man in the world by holding old turkey through a couple of secular bull markes.
Good advice
I have a lot of dead turkeys right now. I say you make the big money doing the swings like you do. You are WAY ahead of me that has lost steeply in the last 4 days. It will once again take the vast majority of any possible rally just to get me back to even. I am becoming less optimistic at those prospects as spot prices just keep falling into oblivion and miners are still dropping.
You get instant gratification and pain avoidance that way. But the really big money is made Old Turkey.
I am still holding.
Only in a bull market Gary. That means during a period of price trending up.
Holding OT in a bear is a recipe for disaster and as I have repeatedly been telling anyone here who would listen we are still in a structural and technical bear market. That’s not even a subject for debate until gold breaks out above 1400 dollars.
So why in God’s name would anybody hold OT until they had a technical assurance that a new bull had begun? We cannot assume anything in this kind of market. And as we have learned this past while the bear is still alive and well and more declines are probable in the future if not guaranteed.
I agree since last week I have stayed in cash- no trades this week… waiting for a Big down days- a pull back or correction. I think Major Indexes are much stronger than what people think. I do mostly Swing Trades and an once in awhile Day Trade… I cannot accept Old Turkey method… because if I am Suffering Draw Downs- aka Losses… then my entry was wrong… that tells me my Trade Plan was wrong and don’t want to admit it. Denial, Old Turkey, Losses are Losses… I personally Despise them. Take care everyone, trade well and use stop limits… for good entry point- use Pivot Points- p
Gary,
There is not Holy Grail in the SM.
Yes there is Warren Buffet and there is Ed Seykota
I agree the big money is made holding for long periods by investors.
Though many people here are speculators.
At the end every one is on it own. All we can do is to share to make our path more rewarding.
Mr Ped,
As doc postma said over at ker…. after this correction ” you better be in”.
As Moriarty says… ” nobody knows..”
Gary with all due respect, Warren buffet made his billions by having friends in high places. His 5 billion$ investment into Goldman Sachs in 2009 was a true farce. His investment was guaranteed plus a 10% coupon. We could all become rich that way. I think he’s a fraud…..
Silver is going down and there is no support on sight.
Expect gold/miners to fall more.
Way guys,
I think this is a point to take a risk. Gold is at about its support of $1220.
JNUG has overdid the fall.
So I got 4K shares at about $5.98 to hold for Monday or Tuesday.
The departure from the averages is at previous extremes. So risk should be minimum.
A real bull market in Gold would never start this way. Besides, look at the monthly chart of GDX. It’s got a nice red candle with wick to that says the top is in.
I bailed out of JNUG at 6.01 with a minor loss.
Ted,
Thanks for the comments.
I liked you post on bonds.
Would you please give us a primer on bonds?
Some people have suggested it here and it would be much appreciated.
No crash yet on the news.
Dollar just broke support.
It recovered already.
Gold and silver are pretty stable, miners are a slow bleed.
what is the Fed target rate?
Old Turkey is the best way to make millions … just like Gary said. If we could ask Warren Buffet I’m sure he would agree with Gary. Warren probably bought JNUG at $23.00 just like a lot of subs. Do you think he is worried???????? NO! Warren knows (he probably follows Gary haha) that at the end of this Gold bull, JNUG will be $500-$1,000. Sure, Warren will have even more billions but we can take some crumbs and all be millionaires lol lol. I can’t wait to be a millionaire. Thanks for keeping our eye on the ball and not getting stopped out by the algo’s and day traders who lose money.
LOL! I just can’t help!
Lots of ‘shake out’ moves in gold and silver. Someone is trying hard to scare the longs out of their positions. I just bought more SLV and some junior gold miners. I am confident that a strong rebound is in the cards.
Gary… as you always say… traders got scared and now it is going up again among people not beleving it! When they realize it we will be to the top again…
Old Turkey ROCKS! Thanks GARY!
All I have to say is thanks for the sale 🙂
Today marks the 4th occasion in which the precious metals reacted positively after Janet Yellen spoke.
Will this happen again on March 15th for the 5th occasion?
Option Trader,
So have you gone back into Silver?
Or what’s your plan and timing?
Thanks
JNUG over 101 million shares. WHOA!
where do you see that
http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=JNUG®ion=U
volume at bottom.
more like 120 million!
Gold and the miners go up from here according to Michael Oliver and his Momentum Structural Analysis. He said 1220 or so would be the bottom, gold has huge momentum and will fly once it breaches 1309 and the dollar breaks 99. He called the 2011 gold top and every major top and bottom in the general market since the 1990s. Bears are going to miss a huge move if they wait for “technicals” to confirm it.
Damn I hope he is right. This DCL has felt like an ICL, especially since I have been holding silver miners.
Miners are lagging big time here. Minimal response. Disappointing to say the least.
Lucky I switched some of GDX to NUGT @7.94 this morning. @8.06 early this afternoon.
But I still have 85% in GDX and 15% NUGT.
I think it’s still very early in the game but I am not so sure whether I want to switch them all.
If I have to switch, I think I have do it today.
But that painful experience from last week just hold me in track.
For GDX, I can endure price decline for a long time but NUGT is totally a different animal.
Rate hike is coming and Gold price action after Yellen speech is very encouraging
Sure looks like we have a Gold DCL on day 24, right in the heart of my timing band. USD topping a bit late in its cycle but I was expecting it to top late this week.
Hard to say at this point. The miners are overdue for a DCL, but the weekly charts look like they have topped.
The banksters may be trying to set up a whipsaw next week for anyone buying today.
The miners are a waste of time. Many are far below January levels even though metals are significantly higher from that same time. So the beat down may still be coming for miners? Hard to believe but they barely budged today after a miserable week.
why bother with miners, if social media stocks can do no wrong
S&P PE ratio is off the chart. What it says is your investment the current stock price can only recoup in after 20 years.
Look for 10 year yield, with rate hike in March, this will likely go over 2.6%, then stock market will tank. Trade deficit and debt ceiling talks, lower oil price forcing OPEC countries to dump US Treasury and China for similar internal reasons dumping US bonds. Bonds are not going to be so attractive after initial stock market crash. Only Gold will shine.
Well guys,
I hope you are doing well.
To close the week I got rid of the 4K JNUG shares.
Today is a good day for me +$7.5K
So out of the $32K lost on Monday I have back $23.5.
Amazing.
Nice work Goild. As others have said, pls. post your trades so we can tag on. I appreciate all those knowledgeable traders on this board like Ped and others who share their trades and tips – really helpful – thanks.
Options Trader – you might be right – gold may continue higher again after Yellen speaks at the next Fed meeting. Until then, it looks to me like miners will bounce Mon/Tues and at least until late in the week. $8.70’s is where I think JNUG might head to.
Buy stocks, dump gold. Parabolia won’t let you down, baby. But the golden nugget will. It is so.
This is an interesting theory and read.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-deep-states-gold-scam-and-the-demonization-of-russia/
Well, what a week!
Lots of fun.
Remember no trading plan no money to be made.
USD had a good drop today.
Gold seems to wanting to form a head and shoulders but most likely a channel to take off up.
I see JNUG next week hitting $8 so I got 2K JNUG shares in the evening session, at $6.74.
We need to think ahead all the time to avoid lost opportunities.
OK I will try to post trades whenever I have a high degree of confidence. Today JNUG was a no brainer after the second low at about $5.9. It is amazing the amount of manipulation that took place today.
The spikes at 1 pm and 1:15 pm are something to take note of.
Have a nice weekend.
I give you guys credit trading size in those leveraged miners. Honestly, it’s like walking thru a mine field. In my 20 years of trading, I’ve never seen this level of constant manipulation of markets. I’m really of the opinion that it’s been ratcheted up 10 notches once Trump took office. There is no coincidence that the stock prices of GS, JPM, MS, et al. went parabolic and that the pressure is off. I truly believe they are making up for lost time. Between the price rigging in crude, dollar-yen, metals, bonds, stock indicies, etc,etc…You can see it right in front of your eyes each day.
And Gary is right when he points it out. The stock indicies were showing signs of another cycle exhaustion in late January and then Bullard is thrown out there to goose it thru 2300. Now that the market is truly in epic bubble territory, the consortium of Fed heads begin the hawkishness again. BUT don’t for a second believe that these people act independently.
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video 3 3 2017
Ira Epstein
Ira Epstein
Subscribe4.5K
Why JNUG overdid the fall?
Recall that the December lows for JNUG and NUGT were $3.77 and $5.51. A difference of $1.74.
Today at the second bottom they were $5.90 and $8.00. A difference of $2.10.
Though today these differences were at higher prices. So indeed JNUG was taken too low.
Now, shall the sell off continue?
The take is that the December low after the rate hike was an extreme and so it was quickly corrected.
JUNG today hit the upper level of the December dip. It will take a stronger event to get again into the dip level.
USD, YEN, and TIP may not have now such a direct correlation with the miners. I think they are mostly controlled now by Gold and SIlver.
Silver may have just stepped down to refresh and continue its linear progression.
In other words, I am bullish to make more money with the miners on the long side.
Shall they continue to fall? Well then there would be an incredible bargain if gold holds a decent level.
Oh, I know very little about things. So be careful in your trading. Money is hard to make holding a regular job. You must have a trading plan. Decide how much are you willing to lose and if so stop there.
Find someone with trading experience, better a master trader, and learn from her/him. Try not to get experience on your own like myself. It is far more expensive than paying a master trader.
The problem is that most of the so-called “master trader’s” are charlatans. The true “master trader’s” don’t want to be bothered.
Ted:
Agree. So far only 3 stock bulls here, you, me, and Kirk (?).
I’m a big stock bull. I think stocks are just starting the final bubble phase. They usually last about a year and a half. The next ICL should be an incredible buying opportunity.
Next Icl when? Many point to the end of march-april …
Gary, any idea?
Bad news for u bullion bull. Despite silver plunge and gold weakness, cot did not improve. Gold cot has worsen. Anyway, best strategy is wait til May onwards.
Oh, and funny thing about u bugs are…. U all follow Gary only when he is bullish. Once he holds cash, or view PM as weak, u guys stop following. Some must be viewing him as traitor??? Lol
I think the most beautiful for Dow is to plunge 30% to 15k. Scare shit out of every one