142 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – RATE HIKE

  1. Goild

    Hi guys.

    I could only be here early in the morning. Same tomorrow.
    I am glad the team is not parting away; I would miss many.
    Hugs are good.
    I pocketed $644 for lunch. Just crumps and expect to be in automatic soon.

    Was is happening tomorrow morning?

    Well expect a nice bull trap early in the morning and then gold will fall and take the miners further down.
    Be attentive to volume.
    That is what happened last time and for a good reason.
    Though this time it would be likely different as there is no support from the overall PM complex. So no quick bounce back.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually 1180 has been support as far back as 2013.

      My guess is an initial reaction down tomorrow that reverses either into the close or on Thursday and that ends up being the cycle bottom.

  2. Goild

    Ped gave us today good insight into his trading:

    “This will sound like a tired out old expression but I basically buy weakness and sell strength. I use channels extensively in conjunction with Bollingers and the RSI. Sounds complicated but when its all on the screen at once it takes just seconds or less to make a decision.
    Practice makes perfect though (I am not perfect btw)”

    Stary sees everything as a channel.
    Big Investor buys/sells at support/resistance.

    Indeed this method of trading is of the finest.

    I am glad Terrywg is still around,
    We need also his expertise.
    “Confluence of charts and a narrative.”

  3. Steffmeister

    Looking loner term raising rates is very bad for bonds and stockmarkets. I do expect to see a top in both this year of 2017.

    However, the wave structure in Gold is sniffing out that a deflationary event is coming, in line with the big fractal from decades back. That would come as an absolute shock to Gary!

    1. Gary Post author

      If we were about to enter a deflationary period the stock market would be crashing.

      On the contrary I think stocks are on the verge of entering their bubble phase. Bubbles are a sign of extreme inflation, not deflation.

  4. Goild

    From the point of view of sentiment, we can say that the current sentiment for gold/miners is terrible.
    They are undesirable, right now. They are currently losers.
    Fear makes things move swiftly.
    Then it would not be surprising that for the rest of the week we will have a terrible bull carnage.

    1. Gary Post author

      Short term sentiment on GDXJ is at 21% bulls. It can go lower but one or two more down days and we’re likely to reach extremes and run out of sellers.

  5. Don

    Goild: I don’t know how you manage to be such a consistent winner at the day trading game when even the very best day traders only win just slightly better than 50% of their trades. You must be some kind of genius. Your gift should make you a millionaire pretty quick.

  6. Don

    I read some where that only 5% of day traders make money and that only 1% make more than enough to cover their trading commission charges It’s a tough game. Goild is a special guy.

  7. Goild

    following…

    as one can make money when there is volatility. So I am familiar with the miners moves and this helps.
    I would not say I am gifted, talented, or too smart. Perhaps, my asset is being persistent and willing to change to improve. Winning at trading is kind of a personal challenge. And trading is fun.
    I was thinking that trading keeps you mind active, well oiled, and this is important as we age.
    For those who like day trading visiting Scott’s blog might be useful. He really was/is a talented day trader:
    http://bankrobbertrades.blogspot.com/

  8. Don

    Don’t be so modest Goild. Only a genius trader could do what you are doing and make money almost every day on a product that is designed to go to zero over time. I look forward to watching your work.

  9. mark miller

    Why even mess around with metals if you think the SM is beginning a bubble phase and considering the FED is still propping up the market? And, since the metals market is manipulated (keeping metals suppressed as opposed to manipulated to the upside like the SM)

  10. Goild

    As you probably have read, it seems to me that the best take is for gold to continue in a channel around $1200. So gold can hit around $1180 and take off on the long side. Gary is thinking perhaps similarly.
    The fate of platinum should be linked to gold’s fate.
    However, I took a look at the charts, and arrived to this take.
    The price of gold is influenced in the immediate future by the bond rate, by USD, and by a PM bias.
    This bias took the precious metals up early this year, and perhaps can be explained by the TRUMP effect on the industry. But it seems that the Trump effect has no support and may be dying. And so the PM bias to go up has been removed. The linear rise of silver shows that PM bias. So if this take has some correctness, the scenario for the PM in the near future is no glamorous.
    So although I am tempted to go long, I realize that I need to be very careful, as the PM may continue sinking.

  11. Goild

    On the other hand, we are near at a critical point where the next low will be higher or lower than the previous low. So there is hope that after the rate hike, PM/miners will go up, which can be a powerful move.
    We need to clear up sentiment first. Tough situation.

  12. chrisG

    Wow, interesting hopefuls here. Let me give you all an alternative view. When I glance at those comments of hopeful rallies, or big bull resuming…. All these reminds me of 2013, 2014, looked so hopeful then pow!!! Chart looked like a decent chance. Then new lows in the PMs.

    Someone talked about Platinum here. A case could be made that it goes to $500!!!. Anyway, I don’t like stress. I will stay away from PMs. When it stops dropping and makes some turnaround, I will know from chart. No point picking falling knives.

  13. Pedestrian

    Well, so far my JNUG trade has been up a total of 34 cents a share this morning but its not clear yet how this will play out since gold looks like its forming a bearish pennant on the hourly chart. That could turn out to be a continuation pattern signaling new lows in gold are coming. As a result this may call for a quick sell at the open, especially if there is any kind of jump that takes JNUG to a reasonable resistance level.

    The higher probability I am watching for is that gold retests its 1195 low and then bounces meaning my trade will go negative briefly but should be held in anticipation of a trend reversal where gold moves up for some days. That’s much more preferable of course.

    Hopefully there is a good answer before the open.

  14. zkotpen

    Ped,

    “I don’t generally like to hold leveraged products on FOMC days since I can never predict what will happen. Its like 50/50 which is just a gamble.”

    I totally agree!

    One thing I picked up on in my charity poker games combined with the jobs data from October (whichever one was called the “goldilock jobs report”):

    It’s bad strategy to put a substantial amount of money (or chips) at risk on an outcome — meaning on a 50/50 outcome. Just wait around for better probabilities.

    In that particular instance, I did bet a 50/50 outcome at the poker table Tuesday night (remember, my risk control is, I only put $7.50 at risk per week on average — just a friendly charity tourney!). I had suited cards that flopped a flush draw, and my opponent flopped a pair.

    I ended up winning the tourney that day — payout was $30 in food & beverage gift certificate!!!. Small time, but a lot of fun!

    But on the following Thursday afternoon (before Friday jobs data), when the stakes were higher, I heeded my own advice and did not put money at risk w/ leverage. That ended up being the right decision πŸ˜‰

    1. Pedestrian

      Agree, probably not a good idea holding today. I might be alone in this but I don’t think we will get a rate increase. So put me in the 1% of people who have doubts. That being said I don’t have a very good case to not believe it since the Fed does seem intent on having their way.

      In favour of gold today we have the Euro rising (dollar falling back a little) and the 30 year treasury is also coming up off a good bottom. Yen is going to be on the rise for at least part of the day but after that there is some doubt. Silver and platinum have both tested their bottoms again and could bounce. It looks positive in general.

      But I still have a little doubt. I see JNUG just launched higher. Time to sell perhaps?

      Get back to you later

  15. zkotpen

    Ped,

    “Hopefully there is a good answer before the open.”

    Actually, I love watching FOMC meeting/minutes days.

    Quite often, the answer comes just after the open and/or a ~1:30-1:45 pm — often a second chance sort of confirmation kinda thing — though it can be tricky to read in real time!

    FOMC — always good for 1-3 reversals in the course of the entire week.

  16. zkotpen

    Does anybody else use tradingview?

    Seems like their techies decided to “be clever” right before the US market opens — no intraday data, and no indicators. Like, they were there at 9 am, and then they disappeared. The gold chart is working fine on all cylinders…

    What a stupid time to revamp your data. Seems they’ve added GDX on like 5 or 6 different exchanges… none of the data is working.

    ergo: Way too much IT making too many decisions outside of IT.

    1. theworldwithoutfacebook

      Yes, it was problematic this morning, lack of a good chart kept me from rotating out some JNUG on the morning push.

      Looks like MM’s started covering miner short positions on the gold plunge. Slight divergence this morning, might be sign of reversal to upside soon.

  17. chrisG

    Gary I think has said before, the Fed always raise rates when market expects and prices a very high percentage to raise. Nonetheless, it’s the outlook that could move things.

  18. Gary Post author

    The odds are 97% for the hike. They’ve kept the market propped up for months in preparation for the hike.

    Seems kind of pointless if they now balk.

    In fact I think the market would (try to) tank if they fail to raise today.

    1. Pedestrian

      So I did sell just after the open. And good thing too. JNUG just broke down from a symmetrical triangle moments ago and should be going South much of the day. I think I will go for a walk and bide my time. FOMC days can be hell except this particular one could be more interesting than usual.

      1. Pedestrian

        Looks like my triangle pattern on JNUG based on the period March 14th to present is going to run for another cycle as price popped up again. This kind of pattern sometimes leads to breakout reversals but most of the time its a continuation pattern so stay cautious people and maybe give it some berth until it makes its real move (just about anytime now).

  19. Goild

    Goild,

    Good morning.

    We will see how the day ends.
    I must go and so I will miss the action.
    In the mean time I will have another nice lunch at $691.

    Good trading to all.

  20. bluelagoon

    To me, charts look pretty good for JNUG. Will stay out until after the Fed announcement – been crushed more often than not staying in during one of these. Feels like JNUG could go to high $7’s but as others are saying – it’s a gamble today.

    1. Pedestrian

      I think its a good idea waiting, Blue.

      I don’t personally have a lot of confidence in the JNUG chart at the moment and usually if I am not sure I do nothing at all. The Fed *should* help clear up market doubts though and clarify the next directional move once the noise is gone. For the moment anyway gold is stuck around 1200 unable to take a firm stand up or down and that’s as good an indicator as I need to just stand aside until somebody else sticks his neck out first.

      Basically we need a direction to trade. Limbo doesn’t work.

        1. Pedestrian

          I did sell Robert. In my first post of the day I was talking about taking any bounce that came at the open since I doubted the sustainability of gold and that’s exactly what I did (also posted that later). It was good for 40 odd cents a share. I think I got 6.06 at market because I felt rushed when it started dropping fast.

          Since then JNUG has just been lollygagging around but I don’t really care now as my day was done when I sold. I don’t usually make more than a single trade in a day anyway. Tried that in the past and it does NOT work well since I can’t concentrate on more than one or two things at a time with any success.

          And not every day either.

          Only when I think I can win and probabilities are in my favour. Like this bounce back in JNUG which was an easy call given the oversold conditions after a brutal price decline. Those often work out if only over brief periods.

          If you want to hear a good story Robert, I don’t even trade with the main focus of making money. It’s only to impress my wife who seems to think I am brilliant whenever I come out on top and beat the odds.

      1. bluelagoon

        Totally agree with you Ped. Charts just keep changing and though I’ve been trying to read them all morning, short and long-term outlooks don’t match – so a toss-up for me which way this will go now.

        1. Pedestrian

          Agree 100%. If you have been watching JNUG all morning you probably noticed the pattern morphed from a pennant to a symmetrical triangle. Then it appeared to break out but only far enough to make a double top! Following that it fell back and now the formation is an ascending triangle (or possibly a triple top soon).

          Some people refuse to use patterns for that reason. Others say that the computer driven nature of the market makes all of them suspect and possibly manipulated. I don’t really take a side since I don’t know one way or another but you do need to be careful and not take your eye of the trade since the mood can change like the weather.

          Whatever this is going to be it is surely a consolidation or waiting period and means there is indecision in the air. And when the market is undecided its best to just wait and let price come to you on its own time.

          PS, as I was writing this post JNUG broke to the upside.

  21. Gary Post author

    ‘Since the 7-year cycle Low’s already behind us it should continue to be a winning strategy until we finish the bubble phase of this bull market

  22. Robert

    Agree with Gary. Buy any dip from here. What i am not sure about is whether when gold starts moving up will be from an ICL or is it still possible for it to be jus another dead cat bounce

  23. Don

    Most of the gold ETFs have being pushing the daily highs upward. If the miners should ‘take off’ yet today, this blog site will be filled with pronouncements from those who will claim to have ‘bought in’ just before JNUG took off.

  24. Don

    The stock market is rising on the backs of oil related sectors because oil jumped a little today. Any further decline in oil could leave the market vulnerable to a sell off.

  25. Don

    Ok guys, it’s decision time, we have a little pull back that could be an entry point, who’s jumping in? Anyone? (I bought all I want last Thursday and Friday).

  26. zkotpen

    The entire move in GDX off Friday’s low is beginning to look like one big triangle:

    A: 21.14 to 22.19
    B: down to 21.35
    C: up to… 21.96 (so far… looks complete, though not necessarily, long as it remains below 22.19)
    D: down to… (limit: 21.35, looks to be in progress)
    E: in the future… very near future most likely.

    Still monitoring, but so far, that’s what I see. Break down to follow triangle in that case.

    1. Pedestrian

      Good observation Zkot. I have been watching that too. JDST is getting fairly oversold suddenly and looks like it has a bounce coming once this rise is complete but it will likely be confined within that triangle you mention so its a good marker to watch. Its interesting how that overnight trade on JDST of 900,000 shares has created a pivot point from which to measure the angle of the triangle. So it was no accident that its been inserted into the market at such a key moment. Kind of a guide if you ask me.

    1. terrywg

      i’m three tranches deep in gold and miners. I’ve posted this over at duck’s blog.

      don, your trading is nothing special.. you’ve been wrong for many months now.

      in fact, the only fence-sitter here is gary, who stopped out of his last 4 metals trades and is now flat on metals.

      Human nature never changes. It’s why most people never make a dime off a bull market.

      1. Don

        Terrywg: Good for you. That’s a nice thing to reveal well AFTER gold and the miners have taken off but I will take your word on it. BTW, are you the guy at Ducks that was heavily straddled in both directions and now claiming victory for the winning side? Just asking.

        1. Gary Post author

          LOL I’m I the only one who notices these perfect trades are always posted after they already happened.

          Folks post your trades with price in real time and then we’ll judge whether you really make any money.

          1. terrywg

            FFS go look at the time of the posts. All real-time and posted BEFORE the moves occur.

            Don, I am sixth_estate. Maybe you should come over and learn a thing or two. Not much here has changed… everyone still living in an alternate reality and trying to deny FACTS.

  27. Option Trader

    I’ve been waiting patiently for the metals to clear out all the longs. Today I’ll be observing the close carefully to confirm if I get me entry.

    1. bluelagoon

      Option Trader – what specifically will you be looking for? I am thinking about getting into miners now given it seems the decision has been positive for them.

    1. Pedestrian

      LOL. yes the that triangle got blown out of the water. Sounded good while we were discussing it though. I just bought JDST for the bounce back. Hopefully I don’t get my ass kicked but there’s always time in a day for a fresh ass kicking!

      1. Pedestrian

        Bought in too early and underwater already. OUCH, down a dollar a share at last grimacing glance A little too fast on that trigger finger I suppose. I was taking my cues from the live gold chart at the time and decided that spike up would not be sustained very long. To me it looks like it has already hit its peak for the week.

    1. Don

      DBOZ: Not sure what you are referring to. The volumes on GDX,, NUGT and NUGT are quite robust and should be above normal by the end of the trading day. Very bullish., in my opinion.

        1. Don

          ETf buyers are day traders? I didn’t know that. I’m not a day trader. Do you know that GDX is a basket of many companies and the sponsor is required to buy shares of the individual component companies when new units are created by demand for GDX? The JNUG and NUGT sponsor (Direxion) buys mostly options, not shares.

    1. Pedestrian

      Robert, I bought at 15.65 so I’m already almost 2 dollars under. Lets see how long it takes to get my head out of this noose now or if I am forced to take the loss. Metals really took me by surprise today. Better if I had held that JNUG but them’s the breaks.

    1. Pedestrian

      Robert! I already told you three times I bought!!! Not adding more here either since that is never a good idea. What I need is a .382 Fib bounce back and I can get out alive. That seems likely. A 50% retrace makes this profitable despite being in the red at the moment.

      I am not the panicky type. Worst case is it falls even lower and I have no choice but a loss.

    1. Gary Post author

      Had to protect against the unknown. Unlike you I have to make my trades in real time and if this had gone the other way and gold took a beating down to 1180 we needed to be protected against that.

      Like I said post your trades in real time along with price and then we’ll judge whether you really make any money.

      ( I’m pretty sure if it had gone the other way you would now be claiming you were short and had scored big).

      1. terrywg

        I’ve been posting my trades here in real-time over the last few months. I think everyone here can attest to that.

        I also posted my past few weeks of trades in real-time over at duck’s blog. It’s there on public record.

        Btw, it’s still not too late to get in. Gold still has quite a fair bit of upside potential.

      2. terrywg

        you sold weakness and bought strength. Just admit it. In fact, you sold right at the bottom. You also stopped out of your last 4 or 5 trades… that’s a feat even for you.

        Missing a 30% up-day in JNUG… and you laugh at the “dumb retail traders” and the “daytraders”.

    1. Pedestrian

      Better now than when I bought it. LOL

      (But I don’t recommend it since gold and miners have turned pretty bullish.)

      There are big outside reversals on platinum and silver too. Getting short is not really a good idea in my opinion except in the case of an intraday bounce trade. But even that is not working well for me right now.

    1. Gary Post author

      Stocks still have to give us a yearly cycle low at some point. I think it’s been pushed out to May though. So I’d guess oil bounces for a bit and then makes a final plunge along with the stock market in late April or May.

      1. brianbreeze

        I should add that EW practitioners think we are in wave 3 now, close to ending, so we would still need to see a wave 4 correction then another rally to wave 5 before the big market tank (according to some EW folks). Previously you thought the market would fall to around 2250 not long after the FED news then have another run higher before falling hard. Is that still what you think or do you think or are you now saying you think the market will just stay up until May and then tank?

        1. Gary Post author

          The DCL was limited to just the tiny little 5 day correction. It wasn’t even allowed to break the cycle trend line.

          At this point I’m looking for a left translated daily cycle but one that includes a blow off phase possibly up to the 2450ish level before topping.

          1. brianbreeze

            OK so you don’t see a drop to 2250 then a run to 2450 but now simply a run to around 2450 then a drop. Any targets for the low for that left translated daily cycle low?

  28. zkotpen

    Robert,

    “Forget the technical analysis and follow gary cycles”

    Incorrect conclusion, brother. I’ve been calling for the 20 day SMA since the weekend. Then today I talked myself out of my previous forecast. That’s the habit I need to correct.

    1. zbigkid

      33% actually. Timed my additional add perfectly !

      I don’t know why people are so surprised by Gold’s $20 move. Its been baked in the cards for a long while now that Fed was going to raise. Gold takes off after every rate hike, and sells off before each hike too. Golden buy points. The Fed is SO far behind the curve, while at the same time, tightening right into a recession, its not even funny. The did the same damn thing back in the 30’s.

      When the Fed is FORCED to take back all these rate hikes, then gold will really sky-rocket.

  29. KHT

    I took a 1k position in JDST at 13.394. JNUG still on the SOS list but about even, not what i consider break out mode. I still feel some very nasty lows are in play for the PMs.

    1. KHT

      You could be right, that`s why I kept my JDST buy modest so i could have some patience with it. The previous rate hikes, the G/S were more oversold and ready for a bounce than now. Also, JNUG is in the resistance zone for the bounce they are in now, which i mentioned a week or so ago. 7.5ish. Also, i still am aware of what i believe is a 12+/- year cup and handle in the USD, which I did post about a week ago. 120 USD is still alive and well until the current HS formation moves one way or the other.

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