Don’t forget the winners too

This is starting to just get ridiculous. Everyday some troll makes a big stink about any losing trade I’ve ever had. Let’s face it that’s what trolls do. They cherry pick only what they want to see.

Yes I have losing trades. Every trader in the world has losing trades. It just comes with the business. What the trolls don’t want you to know is that we have winning trades as well. Every trader in the world has winning trades as well as losing trades.

I have no problem if someone wants to accuse me of a losing trade. But I’m going to insist that if you want to take it  upon yourself to shine a light on every losing trade you must also acknowledge all of my winning trades. You don’t get to have it just one way.

Over the last 2 years the stock portfolio is up 73%. The metal portfolio is up 130%. I’m sure there are plenty of traders who have done better, but I doubt anyone is going to complain too much about those profits.

So if the trolls want to slam me everytime I have a losing trade, they are also going to have to give me credit for all my winning trades and my total returns.

Fair is fair. Man up boys. You don’t just get to cherry pick the negatives. I want credit for my victories as well. And yes I’m including you Avi, Duck and Terry. 🙂 Not once have I ever bothered to waste my time pointing out your losing trades although you have them just like the rest of us.

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56 thoughts on “Don’t forget the winners too

  1. Derrick

    G-man you are a class act. Don’t let the trolls get you down. I think anyone with half a brain can see how pathetic these creeps are.

    Just ignore em. I think most of us here see right through their bull shit.

  2. Hamish

    Yes, exactly. You are a class act Gary. Couldn’t have put it better myself. You have some patience to put up with that kind of shit too.

    The results speak for themselves. Black and white documented fact, everything else is just noise. Don’t mind the haters and continue what you are doing, I think you have a lot of lovers here (lol maybe non-haters is a better term!)

    Happy Paddy’s Day!

  3. Elliott

    Gary, I like you and I like your site. Your problem is that you are too nice. These “trolls” that try to knock you down infest the internet. They are small, sick people that live on their new ability to “touch” important people and, if possible, “smack” them.
    I want you to know that I gave regular commentary about a year ago. I talked about Elliott wave things. I know you did not like it and I know I was screened out at one point (my password was cleared). I survived. I did not get back in till now – to tell you to keep your chin up and throw out the comments of trolls or anyone you don’t like. It is your right.

    1. Hamish

      Hey Elliot, just to let you know that Gary upgraded the site (at least the subscriptions side anyway) in late summer and everyone’s passwords were reset iirc, so I doubt you were screened.

  4. Goild

    Your kind comment to provide a balanced picture of your trading, and your open attitude in the mist of negative criticism, tell the kind of person you are. You aim to be realistic which is a trait of good traders.
    Excellence in trading is not achieved unless one has a righteous attitude.
    Your trading advice is perceived as given with the best of desires to help traders.
    You work long hours here at the SMT, are accessible for free to all of us, and provide to us a free forum where we can learn more about trading, and which adds much benefits to our trading activity.
    We are appreciative and praise your work in the SMT site.
    I sincerely congratulate on the SMT.

  5. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Still digesting your comment at the bottom of two posts ago.

    I’ve got a recommended exercise for you for this weekend:

    Get a splint for your right wrist and hand and a sling.

    Put the splint on immobilizing your right wrist and hand. Tape it up.

    Put your dressed right arm in the sling.

    Wear it all weekend, including during bathing.

    Remove Monday morning and share your impressions.

    Don’t think about it, as your left brain will certainly rebel with shock and contempt.

    Just do it.

    What have you got to lose?

  6. bginvestor

    Hi Ped,

    I’m always looking for convincing data for both sides of the trade..

    I’m fascinated by the G/S ratio plot you provide in the previous post. The channel looked a little funny to me. After a few minutes, it occurred to me that I would have drawn the support line differently. I agree with the slope taken from the top of the channel, but I would have placed the support line on the break point at 2011..

    Admittedly, this changes the story drastically.. I’m not trying to convince you, just an observation. Thoughts are appreciated.
    BG

    1. Pedestrian

      Great point BG. I would have drawn the support and resistance a little differently too so I agree there is room for disagreement on what that chart portends over the short term. Charting is both art and science. It is really helpful on a longer term basis though as the general idea being conveyed has validity and so its worthwhile to know is the G/S ratio is rising or falling.

      Call it another tool in the toolbox. Link it or print it out and when in doubt about the precious metals and miners trend go back and do a review to see if anything has changed that might alter your bullish outlook.

      I keep many hundreds of such charts and ideas handy for those days when I get confused and distracted by the noise of the moment. If you read my post yesterday on Options Expiry you will be aware that is another of the tools I use to help sort out where we are going.

      These are the kinds of things you pick up from watching gold for many years and they do come in very handy at key moments. The only way to be successful at understanding the gyrations in the metals complex is to be well armed with information and this is part of how I have managed to stay on the correct side of this market for so long.

  7. Goild

    Ped,

    I am goin to disagree with you.
    A better chart is the inverse silver/gold from 2006 to date.
    It turns out that the chart says that silver has been less stable/valuable than gold. Gold has sustained much better the metals decline.
    There are two bottoms for the ratio, 2009 and 2016, setting a limit. Prior to the 2016 bottom the ratio is about flat and after also about flat. This says that it is very unlikely that it will decrease. On the contrary the odds are that the ratio sil/gold will increase.

    Indeed the graph of gold shows resilience to fall since 2013. Gold has been the favorite PM.

    The exercise suggests to look at the ratio plat/gold. This shows that it is stabilizing but currently decaying. Plat is not in favor or has been in favor for many years. So on Monday I will sell my 1K shares of PPLT and buy gold and silver instead.

  8. zkotpen

    Goild,

    My point exactly!

    Magickly, right before reading your comment, I read an article containing the following:

    “[The father], then an assistant… High School [basketball coach]…, would strap a rubber band around his son’s right arm to force him to practice dribbling with his left. In baseball, [he] was switching hitting by high school.”

    Made me smile. I’ve done that exercise so many times, often without even knowing it. But then, my own ambidexterity is coming from the right brain/left hand connection. Such funky experiments:

    Eating with chopsticks in my right hand, and a spoon in the left.

    I shoot pool (not that well) right handed, but never do those tricky behind the back shots — I just shoot left-handed.

    I remember in 2nd grade, classmates gave me left-handed scissors to use. It took me 20 years to figure out why “left handed scissors didn’t work” 🙂

    Too much mousing with the left hand? Just switch the mouse to the right side of the computer, without skipping a beat.

    Last time I was cajoled (abducted?) into bowling, I figured the only way I could knock pins down was to throw the ball as hard as possible, play the game, and be done with it. I forgot that you’ve gotta play 2 more games! My left shoulder was sore. So I figured I’d just throw the next game right handed. And that’s a heavy bowling ball! The bowling alley owner taught me how to do the walk properly. For the 3rd game, I decided to alternate throwing left and right handed — though if I had pins stuck on one side, I’d throw with the opposite hand. The owner showed me the left-handed walk, saying, “it’s a mirror image of the right-handed walk.” Then it all made sense, why I was never any good at bowling — when I was 15, I bowled left-handed, but unconsciously picked up the right-handed walk — a sure-fire dead end in that sport. The more recent experience was 20 years later in Korea. The bowling alley owner told me that he was born left-handed, but forced to “be right-handed” as a child.

  9. zkotpen

    Goild,

    “When I was a physicist, people would come to me from time to time with problems in mathematics they couldn’t solve. They wanted me to check their numbers for them. But after a while I learned not to waste my time checking the numbers-because the numbers were almost always right. However, if I checked the assumptions, they were almost always wrong.”

    From “The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement”
    by Eliyahu M. Goldratt & Jeff Cox

  10. Pedestrian

    Well Gary, maybe it was time you addressed this subject of people harassing you online about past calls. Unfortunately I don’t agree with your approach. It strikes me you are attempting to reach a compromise or make a deal with the people who are attacking you.

    Intuitively you should know that is not going to be a successful strategy.

    Many, many years ago while living in South Israel there was a local attack and hostage taking event. The Israeli Defense Forces responded quickly and with overwhelming force killing all the attackers in the process. The Western media went nuts and there were accusations about why the Commander had not even considered the demands of the attackers nor attempted to engage them with communications before taking them out.

    He snapped back with a five word answer “We don’t negotiate with terrorists”.

    Basically he acknowledged what we all know already. That when someone is attacking you there is no room for talk or direct lines of communication anymore because they have already proven by their intent they don’t have any reservations about inflicting mortal harm on you.

    So negotiations are out Gary. You cannot win by appeasement either. You have to fight back.

    What bothers me about that Duck site and the related anti-Gary sites is that they have devolved into forums for hate speech. The personal attacks are merciless and uncalled for. Even as the site owners claim all they are doing is offering helpful information it strikes me that is just a cover for dispensing hate propaganda against an identifiable group.

    In this case its sexual orientation and I am repulsed by the kinds of comments I read there.

    Some of those people may or may not be good traders but that does not give them a privilege to dish out abuse like they have been doing. And the so-called helpful information is really not that helpful anyway. Its not as though they are offering a useful public service about the dangers of stray rabid dogs or something.

    On the contrary, it is entirely personal and extremely offensive.

    Unfortunately hate speech is not yet an offense in the US however it is unequivocally illegal in Canada and parts of Europe. Duck knows this and has cleverly established his hate blog using a Romanian address to protect his identity and create a difficult legal barrier from which to mount a defense. He would not dare to do the same thing from Canada because it would bring a defamation lawsuit and in fact no hosting site would permit it as Canadian law is clear on this issue.

    That does not mean you cannot take action though and if I can offer personal advice I would say you should make an effort to unmask the source and then contact Canadian authorities to bring attention to what is obviously a criminal act.

    Sorry Duck, but I have zero respect for you. If Gary needs backup I am 100% on his side which would include being part of any complaint he might lodge. As I am also Canadian it is within my rights to participate in such a complaint and help put a stop to the obvious anti-gay hate you are promoting online.

    I suggest you close shop now and write a public apology to Gary.

    1. ARends

      Well said Ped!!!

      People that show a finger usually has four showing back. To attack another is to justify your own incompetency feeling good by putting some else down. Like the Pharisees 2000 years wanting to crucify and justifying themselves before others…..

  11. cazabrujas

    Hey Gary, since you have given up on the metals for now, are you going to focus now on the Nasdaq or are there other instruments/commodities you’ll be reviewing in your blog in the coming months that have potential? Thanks

  12. WallStreetJesus

    The COT’s for gold and platinum look pretty good. The commercials did a lot of buying closing out short positions during the recent decline. I think that bodes well for the metals going forward.

    One of these days platinum is going to take off like copper did a few months ago. Haha I am patiently waiting for that day.

  13. Goild

    Zkotpen,

    May be I see the point.
    I need to realize bad trading habits and cut them from their root.

    Yes, I will rethink my path.
    Perhaps only allowing me to make three trades a day.

  14. ARends

    Ped

    The most interesting is the rise of Gold with debt chart. Very interesting article with a few graphs. That chart you posted does not really convince me of bear outlook. That break in your interesting chart out of the channel to me looking at the candles could be down but Another article with a lot of info of gold and the last 300 year chart with inflation and path Gold has not just as a commodity and path.

    http://news.gold-eagle.com/article/ides-march-%E2%80%93-gold-14463-and-silver-669/538

    Last year, George Soros dumped 37% of his U.S. stocks and put $475 million into Barrick Gold, one of the largest miners in the world. He then sold that stake and went straight to the source, buying 240,000 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF.

    His motivation might surprise you.

    It’s China.

    Soros believes that China’s economy is poised to crash after years of sky-high growth.

    He has a strong case, too, one that I’ve discussed at length in the past.

    See, the problem with China’s growth is that much of it is debt-based. The government basically gives money to banks and encourages them to dole out loans even to unworthy borrowers. This rapid extension of credit has created a huge debt bubble.

    At 277% of GDP, China has the highest level of corporate debt in the world. And its national debt load stands at roughly $23 trillion — five times what it was a decade ago, and more than two and a half times the size of the country’s entire economy.

    This has Soros fearing a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

    “There is an eerie resemblance to what’s happening in China to what’s happened here leading up to the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and it is similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said. “It’s eventually unsustainable. But it feeds on itself and it has a lot to do with real estate,” he said.

    The bond market is $60 trillion. Right now, nearly $10 trillion in fixed income is negative yielding, according to Singer. He added that these prices and yields contain a “tremendous, never-before seen asymmetry between potential further reward and risk.”

    Singer is among a number of hedge fund managers who have become increasingly vocal against central bank policy. He said that central banks have created a “tremendous increase in hidden risk” and “unusual dangers that are unique in the ‘5,000 years-ish’ history of finance.”

    For that reason, gold is “underrepresented in many portfolios as the only money and store of value that has stood the test of time.”

    “It makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree,” Singer wrote in an April 28 letter to clients. “Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the world’s central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies.”

    So there you have it.

    China, so long the world’s growth engine, has become a debt crisis waiting to happen. Central banks in Europe have deployed negative interest rates that rapidly erode value. And in the United States wealth has been borrowed from future economic growth to feed bubbles in stocks and real estate.

    That’s why billionaires/clever money are rapidly rushing into their old standby, gold.

  15. Raven

    Hey Gary, I have been silently reading your public content for years, almost daily. I find you to be one of the most competent, level headed traders on the entire web. I’m sure there are many others like me, who choose not to engage in the drama, and hateful comments that you endure on a daily basis.

    It is my hope that deep down you realize that these haters are immature and jealous, having no trading expertise and consistently losing money. Therefore, they lash out, and want to blame anyone other than themselves for their continuous mistakes. Basic psychology. Taking responsibility for ones own actions is almost non-existent these days.

    With that said, I am hoping that you don’t let these fools, that have nothing better to do, knock you down. You offer a WEALTH of information that I, for one am very grateful for. I have been trading since 2007, and make my own decisions, but I will fully admit that your analysis at times has been priceless. So, from me to you, THANK-YOU, for all your extremely hard work.

  16. ARends

    Gary, well put! We have to take accountability what we trade and make our own decisions for what we trade and who we follow. Each makes a decision on their knowledge. They just want to pass the buck on their own risk management of trade. You give your wisdom you share and I appreciate your risk management. I follow many ideas and have to make a decision in what I see. All get it right and wrong at different times. Blaming others and bad mouthing others are just a mirror of your personality they dont realise thats all.

    1. Don

      Arends: Interesting point point concerning China. It seems that the Chinese authoritarian government is engaged in a sophisticated game of ‘whack a mole’ with their managed economy. If they are ultimately successful in avoiding a devastating crash, we can then expect to see even more government interference in the economies of the Western countries by their respective governments and central bank. Already, many western politicians openly admire the Chinese dictatorial regime’s ability to ‘get things done’ without having to to deal with pesky environmental groups and other concerns it’s citizens may have regarding the degradation of the air and water.

      1. ARends

        Hahaha, you put it well, everyone is playing whacking the mole! The question is then who misses the next mole..hahaha.

        Everthing is on the edge and have started, however the downfall is surely going to start in a region like Asia, EU and has to end with the reserve currency (US). So it surely justifies money fleeing from other regions to the US as for last resort. That’s why we seeing the US stock markets ballooning with no value as it is better than other regions in the destabilisation of most regions we see.

        The Clever money is surely starting to flee and that why fundamentals and correlations are falling away. We see other fundamentals driving money flow and SM investment.

        We at a precipice…this NOT not the little bird called the precipices that lives high in the precipice trees, that flies from precipice to precipice to press another piss.

  17. Don

    Gary, I am wowed by all the new and supportive fans your ‘plea for fairness’ commentary has brought forth here on this blog. Your statement must have resonated well with many that have never spoken up before. I hope all of the ‘newbies’ stick around and speak up more often.

  18. Adrian

    Gary
    Most of us are here to ear your comments.
    There are always people that do not value others or tings properly, but don’t worry, they often fail in their investments too.

  19. Don

    Pedestrian: Just a couple of things:
    1) How do you know that ‘Duck’ guy is from Canada?
    2) I am Canadian and our anti-hate laws are directed primarily against those who make hateful statements about another’s race, gender or sexual orientation. I had a look at the website you are referring to and clearly, the author (Duck) has quite a beef with Gary but it doesn’t appear to be of the nature that would violate Canadian hate speech laws. Once again, you are making shit up or perhaps it’s perhaps just plain ignorance on your part.
    3) I have to wonder why you are drawing attention to such an anti-Gary website blog right here on Gary’s website. NOT cool.
    4) Just a few days ago you made an very offensive blanket statement here on the blog and I quote
    directly your own words:

    Pedestrian
    March 16, 2017 at 2:08 pm

    “No wonder you guys lose so much bloody money. You are all idiots.”

    You have made similar such blanket derogatory and hateful statements in the past but I won’t bother to list them all because anyone who follows this blog on a regular basis knows the truth.

    5) Perhaps an apology from you to everyone you have offended while in one your fits of rage, is in order.

  20. Don

    Arends: Thanks very much for the interesting Youtube video link. That Chris Aaron is a smart man and does a superb job of demonstrating the folly of relying on COT reports as they are normally reported. EVERYONE needs to watch that video. What is far more important and not widely reported is the speculator/commercial numbers adjusted to reflect the open interest. Here is a link to a site that provides adjusted numbers(for open interest)in an easy to understand format. Perhaps you and others will find it useful. https://freecotdata.com/

  21. Crusader56

    Gary,
    I appreciate your site and empathize with your having to deal with all levels of people.
    People all have different perspectives​ of themselves, others, societies and the varied boundaries thereof.
    Integrity, respect, composure, patience, intelligence, self control, and self awarenesses, are components that contribute to any person’s character. There are a lot of different characters and they are identified by their actions.
    I also appreciate the community here and the input of most of the participants.
    We all have to decide what boundaries we choose to enforce in our own lives,..And our resultant actions in response..
    I respect the sharing of information charts analysis and even the occasional AGHH,😁.
    RUDE people, not so much,.. respect.

  22. Bigdaddy

    Don, I almost bust a gut laughing at your comment to Pedestrian. You are one cool cucumber and always seem to know what you are talking about. I have only been watching this blogsite for the past couple of weeks and can see that he is an annoying turd. Keep on his arse.

    Going by the videos, Gary appears to be smart cookie so I am considering a subscription. Someone said that he provides real time trades for his subscribers. Can you confirm that?
    Also, who is this Duck guy Pedestrian is referring to? I’d like to see an opposing viewpoint before I put out my money. Is there a link to the Duck website? I couldn’t find anything.

  23. TraderPete

    The GSR is trending down not up, which bodes well for the bull case in the metals. Also, Peter Hug from Kitco expects the GSR to reach 65 from its current value of 70.74 in the near term. I don’t trade the GSR spread, which you can now do, but I use the GSR as a guide for the bigger picture, but not for my very short term trading strategies. ♉️

  24. Don

    Bigdaddy: thanks for the vote of confidence and yes, Gary does provide real time trade updates. As for the ‘Duck’ website, well. maybe Ped will give it to you.

  25. Goild

    It seems that many here at SMT are bullish in gold for the near term.

    After further consideration of the gold chart, realizing that gold sustained best the PM decline, that now is trending up, that inflation is/will be in the rise, that things are expensive, that for a longer period hardly one can expect to lose, I feel confident that it is not a mistake to put money in gold, PMs. In fact, the SM is already showing signs of weakness and has raised on the prospective of a better economy, that is in air. So there should be a point where people realize that gold in fact is a pretty good choice for a long term investment.

    So if I were a financial consultant I would not refrain about suggesting it to clients, likely as the best bet around. I do not believe the SM going much further without a good retracement and without a good pause. In fact gold is at +++17% since the December 2015 low. Before you know it will be +++25%. Things are happening already.

  26. Marc

    Why do you even care what anyone says on a public forum? There will always be someone who thinks you’re a complete idiot and someone else who thinks you’re awesome. Just worry about your trading.

    1. billybob62

      To know that goof is to love him.
      Stop belittling Pedesrian.
      I think he knows more than most blatherskites here so please stop the attempts to intimidate.

  27. MagnuM

    Add another tally to the Canadian column! I’m from Edmonton, Alberta. Go Oilers!

    Good that you support Gary Ped. You can disagree with someone without resorting to personal attacks.

    Analysis in crude seems fairly quiet! What are people’s predictions for when and where it will bottom?

  28. ARends

    Ped

    The most interesting is the rise of Gold with debt chart. Very interesting article with a few graphs. That chart you posted does not really convince me of bear outlook. That break in your interesting chart out of the channel to me looking at the candles could be down but Another article with a lot of info of gold and the last 300 year chart with inflation and path Gold has not just as a commodity and path.

    http://news.gold-eagle.com/article/ides-march-%E2%80%93-gold-14463-and-silver-669/538

    Last year, George Soros dumped 37% of his U.S. stocks and put $475 million into Barrick Gold, one of the largest miners in the world. He then sold that stake and went straight to the source, buying 240,000 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF.

    His motivation might surprise you.

    It’s China.

    Soros believes that China’s economy is poised to crash after years of sky-high growth.

    He has a strong case, too, one that I’ve discussed at length in the past.

    See, the problem with China’s growth is that much of it is debt-based. The government basically gives money to banks and encourages them to dole out loans even to unworthy borrowers. This rapid extension of credit has created a huge debt bubble.

    At 277% of GDP, China has the highest level of corporate debt in the world. And its national debt load stands at roughly $23 trillion — five times what it was a decade ago, and more than two and a half times the size of the country’s entire economy.

    This has Soros fearing a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

    “There is an eerie resemblance to what’s happening in China to what’s happened here leading up to the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and it is similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said. “It’s eventually unsustainable. But it feeds on itself and it has a lot to do with real estate,” he said.

    The bond market is $60 trillion. Right now, nearly $10 trillion in fixed income is negative yielding, according to Singer. He added that these prices and yields contain a “tremendous, never-before seen asymmetry between potential further reward and risk.”

    Singer is among a number of hedge fund managers who have become increasingly vocal against central bank policy. He said that central banks have created a “tremendous increase in hidden risk” and “unusual dangers that are unique in the ‘5,000 years-ish’ history of finance.”

    For that reason, gold is “underrepresented in many portfolios as the only money and store of value that has stood the test of time.”

    “It makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree,” Singer wrote in an April 28 letter to clients. “Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the world’s central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies.”

    So there you have it.

    China, so long the world’s growth engine, has become a debt crisis waiting to happen. Central banks in Europe have deployed negative interest rates that rapidly erode value. And in the United States wealth has been borrowed from future economic growth to feed bubbles in stocks and real estate.

    That’s why billionaires are rapidly rushing into their old standby, gold.

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