178 thoughts on “GOLD- SHORT CYCLE SCENARIO?”

  1. dboz

    Gary, nice analysis/theory. This scenario is what I am setting up for. I am keeping tight stops in case of your previous scenario plays out. Good job disecting both cases! I think we know by days end Wednesday.

  2. Don

    Thanks for thoughtful video and interesting analysis. A study of the dollar chart doesn’t present (to me anyway) any stand out signals as to which way it’s going to go. However the Euro chart is much more definitive, in my opinion, it looks like a bullish setup. I don’t believe the debt ceiling issue will produce anything but some short term gyrations for the dollar whereas a rising Euro will ultimately lift the dollar unless, of course, the YEN does something unexpected. So, a falling dollar will certainly be helpful for the commodity sector but as always, only to the extent of the currency fluctuation. That all said, one must keep in mind that currency changes are rarely the primary driver for the PMs and that rising PM prices have gone hand in hand with a rising dollar for long periods in the past. I remain substantially long gold, silver and platinum with some leveraged positions that I added on Thursday and Friday morning.

  3. Don

    Sorry, I meant to say “a rising Euro will ultimately crush the dollar unless, of course, the YEN does something unexpected”. The YEN is a definite wild card and I have no idea where it’s going.

  5. Goild

    It seems that due to the recent significant gold drop, the currencies should not have a strong bearing on gold’s price this coming week.

    If we have a rate hike, gold should continue to fall, perhaps to form a double bottom as per the $1196 on Friday, but likely lower to hit stops.

    A reasonable reason for gold’s drop was fear at the change of plans on the rate hike.
    Perhaps it was overdone, and did account for the rate hike already. But I do not think so as
    gold is at ~+14% from December 2015. So it is doing quite well, and has room to go lower, as more rate hikes are on the table.

    Hope for gold to go up should stand on 1) a significant weak USD, 2) inflation which we need to be patient, 3) for the SM to crash, or for a 4) conflict with NK.

    As EU appears to be in trouble, I am not sure USD would become weak that soon.
    Inflation will take time to have a bearing.
    Hopefully the SM starts a long/unending slow decline as the Yen had.
    Hopefully NK behaves and nothing happens there.

    Oh, I left the strongest one: The manipulators will continue inflicting pain long and short to make money.

    1. Gary Post author

      Rate hikes are good for gold and bad for the dollar. The more the Fed raises the better it will be for gold. So we don’t have anything to worry about from a rate hiking cycle.

      1. Vortex

        Holy smokes,

        Once again Gary gives the skeptical crowd information that is correct and central to their gold investing future as we drift through uncharted waters.

        The small rate hikes that will surely be implemented by the hapless and deranged FED will set a strong floor under gold and if a few more are forthcoming, it will light a rocket engine under the gold price, not facilitate its move to excessively lower levels as some believe.

        This interest rate hike killing gold information is actually the opposite of what you have been taught. Until such time as the real quantifiable interest rate levels exceed the true inflation rates by many multiples will it effect gold meaningfully in a debased and currency degraded system that is hanging on by a threat.

        The current system is coming unglued and at some point will no longer function properly in any meaningful sense. At that point it won’t matter what level interest rates are at. people will literally be trying to save any resemblance of normal life and wealth preservation in any form.

        Gold/silver and possibly Bitcoin will be absolute winners under the world changing events that are well known and lay ahead of us all.

        Thanks Gary for keeping it real.

  6. Goild

    Gary,

    The price of gold is influenced to a good extent in the very short term by two competing factors: Inflation and yields. When the yield increases gold goes down until the inflation factor undoes the yield. What happened last December after the rate hike? We had gold falling after the hike; On Wednesday if there is a rate hike gold should fall first. Yes, sooner or later gold will reverse as higher rates will promote inflation. In the long term I agree, higher rate are good for gold, but not for the very short term.

    Though there is the scenario that the rate hike is already accounted for.

    Ped, can you elaborate on this stuff?

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold bottomed one day after the last two rate hikes.

      If the market starts to anticipate it could now bottom slightly ahead of the rate hike.

  7. zkotpen

    What a difference a day makes for the eBULLient gold buggeroos!

    1. I did predict the DCL in gold before the jobs data — glad Gary agreeD with me (emphasis on past tense) 🙂
    (See my post from Friday morning before 7 a.m. EST)

    2. GDX goin’ after the 10 day SMA, gold still chuggin’ away at the 5…

    No need to shift my perspective since Friday PRE-market: Left translated daily cycle in the metals here we come… unless the charts show me otherwise.

  9. SLEP

    It looks to me like g & s have formed a local min & will now transit to a local max & then transit to a final min before starting a 5th impulse wave.

  10. sess

    Gary, there was no left translated or failed cycle- has this happened in the past for an IC Low?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been expecting some tricky curve balls because of that long cycle at the end of the year.

      Gold just looks like a really sharp half intermediate cycle low that pulled back from the 200 DMA. The miners and silver look like ICL’s.

      This one is fuzzy and should be driven by the currency cycles. If the euro takes control of the currencies then the metals could turn here. And that could be dependent on how long the PPT is able to hold off the natural correction in the stock market down into its YCL.

  11. zkotpen

    Well, gold did not like the looks of the 5 day SMA at present & decided to move back toward the area of 61.8% retracement of the move up from Friday’s low. No big deal.

    GDX, on the other hand, looks like it’s got its eye on the 10 day SMA…

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m also watching the divergence in miners. If they can close above the 10 DMA today I might have to change my strategy and get back in.

      The media seems to have gone dark over the debt ceiling issue. If I could get some idea how that is going to unfold it would be much easier to determine whether we’re putting in a short ICL.

  12. Strike

    Tough call Gary. We’ll see whether RSI(5) gets embedded in overbought or drops back quickly. Might lose a half day edge but seems like a decent secondary maybe?

    1. Strike

      Also the divergence is stark in that RSI indictor in GLD vs GDX. This is the mirror image of the last bearish divergence. I’d call this one bullish.

  13. Robert

    Yes there is a divergence between gold and miners, very similar situation to the time before gold dropped. This is bullish but why is GDXJ vastly outperforming GDX?

    1. bluelagoon

      For what it’s worth – I find GDXJ is usually the pointer – when it lags GDX – miners will weaken and when it outperforms – miners will strengthen. I suppose we’ll see in the next few days.

  14. bluelagoon

    JNUG has moved up +30% from in just the past few trading days. Ped – I understand your long term bearish viewpoint on gold but what’s your take for this week (the shorter term)? I’m thinking JNUG will go to $7.60’s – maybe low 8’s but then should correct.

      1. bluelagoon

        That I couldn’t tell you Robert. But GDXJ tends to outperform GDX regardless – the only time I see it lag is when miners are going to get hit.

    2. Pedestrian

      Sorry about not seeing your post. Been busy today. Anyway, bought JDST at 16.86 which was OK but I had intended to get in earlier. Life intrudes sometimes. So lets see how this goes for a day (or two at most) since I think the bounce back in gold probably has more life in it yet.

      1. bluelagoon

        Thanks for your reply Ped. Still a good entry given JDST is now at 17.40. So you are getting out before the Fed meeting – probably the safer route.

        1. Pedestrian

          Definitely.

          This is not bad but I left 25 cents behind. I was watching the double top forming on JNUG but for some reason was having doubts and couldn’t make the decision on JDST. Once it started moving up though it just took off and I realized I had been right but too much of a sissy to pull the trigger at the bottom.

          LOL!!!

          Anyway, looks good for the moment. I don’t generally like to hold leveraged products on FOMC days since I can never predict what will happen. Its like 50/50 which is just a gamble. Hit 18 even a few minutes back so maybe kick it today around 18.15 if we get there.

    1. Pedestrian

      Haha. Good one. Time to get the hell out of the way.

      I’m usually on a horse if you are curious. Horrible rides but my wife adores them.

  17. Don

    Watching the PM and stock markets today is like watching paint dry. so far. Maybe some big moves during the last half hour?

    1. Don

      Strike: I agree with you. There is no love between Trump and Yellen. I expect the rate increases to come in quick succession.

  19. Robert

    PED I wouldn’t hold JDST if I was you. A quick day trade perhaps but its looking like it wants 1 more leg down before FOMC, based on the Elliot waves. I doubt JDST will get back to 20 before FOMC

    1. Pedestrian

      You could be right Robert. I just noticed the 30 year is putting in an outside reversal today and its near important support so it should bounce by Wednesday. That would be unconditionally bullish for gold. Given my trade today is a flop which got an exit after it failed I might reconsider longs for tomorrow.
      http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=ZB

      1. Robert

        I think your JDST may win in the end. Not liking the big underperformance in GDX today. There is usually big whipsaws around FOMC so JDST should have a bounce either way. I think Gary is right tho, we have to watch the quality of this GDX rally, if it is strong then he could be right about ICL. If the rally fizzles in a few days after FOMC then JDST will comeback strong. At least this is what I think

      1. Pedestrian

        Don’t lose hope yet Robert. Check out this chart first and notice that the 30 year bond is right on its support line going back a decade. Just use a clear plastic ruler for a quick check of what I am talking about here. Just slap it right on your screen and find the channel.

        If you trace out a line using the low point of 2007 to today’s low you will see there is an almost perfect channel formed by comparing it to the upper rail established from the peaks in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

        Take a second to just confirm that and then let it sink in for a second. If gold currently moves together with bonds (and currently is the key word here which I will address in a second) then the implication is there will be no rate hike Wednesday because should one come then the long bond chart will most certainly break below long term support.

        And that will be a holy shit moment for the market I assure you.

        So we could be at an important inflection point here. Or perhaps the Fed has misled and those record long bets on a rate hike are going to be scrambling to cover when Yellen makes no change at all. What that means is gold could take off like a rocket, if only for a few days and the bulls will take the day as bonds break up instead of down and gold follows.

        About the gold/bond correlation. To see it is still valid just make a comparison chart using TLT and GLD which are quick and handy ways to see if the relationship is still valid. There is a slight divergence but in general they are still in sync.

        http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=m1

        1. Pedestrian

          On the other hand, if Yellen does announce another rate hike, and particularly if it is greater than the expected 25 basis points, then gold will be slammed to the pavement and everyone here who is long is going to have a really shitty day.

          I suspect no hike. But I am often wrong on Fed calls.

        2. Robert

          I see it Ped, but how often does Gold move directly with 30 year bond? The market fully expects a rate hike im kind of doubting they dont go ahead with it. Its the Feds chance to go ahead as planned since all the indicators are a go

          1. Pedestrian

            Most people need to be wrong for the market to work Robert. And since the trade around a rate hike is in the nosebleed section having consumed everyone then odds are it fails. It just means everyone is on one side of the boat so its probably going to tip over.

            Gary might have a thought on this since he has access to sentiment numbers that may tell the tale. Maybe he will run a post on the odds before tomorrow and we can all throw in our two bits.

            About the TLT/GLD correlation all I can tell you is its still intact but it has weakened recently. If you don’t have your own software to make the chart then bring up Yahoo Finance and use the “Compare” feature at the top of the chart.

        3. Pedestrian

          Meanwhile, I am thinking of buying JDST again since it made such a nice double bottom just now.

          1. Robert

            Yes. GDXJ fading here after that bounce. Hmm One more leg up at least in miners. This cant be it for the rally that would be tragic. Gold hit 1210 overnight before it got manipulated down so I expect at least a retest of 1210 if this rally is already over

          2. Pedestrian

            Yup, and JDST just bounced back another 40 cents. So we are probably going to get at least another day of it rallying but I have no idea what Wednesday will bring other than what I mentioned already.

            There are waaaaaay too many longs believing that rates will rise.

            But if you need a little insight I will also point out that Commercials are betting heavily on a bond bounce. And since in this case we are talking the banks, sovereigns, wealth funds, insurance companies and that sort of thing (when we refer to Commercial interest) it most likely means no rate hike.

            So gold will be going skyward and so will the miners.

      1. Don

        I did nothing today except to hold what I bought Thursday and Friday. I will leave the day trading to the fools and amateurs like you.

        1. Pedestrian

          Sure you did something. You irritated me for a second day.
          Don’t you have dishes to wash or something?

  22. Don

    Robert, don’t buy into the bond/gold correlation rubbish. Any perceived correlation is temporary and certainly doesn’t exist over the long term.

    1. Pedestrian

      So are you short gold then? I thought you said yesterday you are long and strong and adding more. Just curious, but no rate hike would benefit your trade. Don’t you think it would be wise to do your homework on the correlation instead of just shooting from the hip?

    2. Robert

      I am long gold miners Don. I dont believe this rally is over already, its just too early. And I will not day trade

  23. dboz

    I survived another day. Moved some things around today. No leverage. Just straight miner buys. Keeping my stops in case of a rout. Not expecting one though. The metals are dead today. Any lift in spot sends miners up, movement down in spot, not much happens. Volume is huge for many miners today. Not sure what that means but I am taking it as a positive sign. Short interest in the miners has grown substantially in the past week, especially with this couple day rally. The miner DUMP trade is looking like the easy trade for now.

    1. Pedestrian

      Strike, I have no idea what Yellen will do but I am not prepared to bet against the banks.

      And the banks are betting bonds bounce off support (IE…no rate hike).

      I’ll wait until after the press conference before sticking my neck out!

  25. Don

    Ped: It is becoming tedious countering your rubbish. Do some reading of your own and quit talking like a clueless fool. I quote from someone who knows what they are talking about :
    “interest rates are the real underlying fundamental force between gold prices and Treasuries. If inflation rises faster than the yield of the 10-year Treasury making real rates negative, then gold becomes a wealth preservation trade. It might not offer investors a yield, but it does protect against the devaluation of their money. In this kind of scenario, interest rates may rise along with inflation, but if real rates are still negative, then gold prices should rise along with them – while the price of bonds falls.”http://commodityhq.com/education/examining-relationship-between-treasury-yields-gold-prices/

    1. Pedestrian

      First off Don, you don’t need to read any comment I write. But if you do then you should be prepared to consider each trade on its specific merit because despite the text books the market can do pretty much anything on any given day that does not follow the formula.

      Be that as it may, your expert is correct on real rates in the big picture. But in order to believe gold will be a good trade you need to also believe inflation will rise or keep rising and rates will lag behind. I think it was yesterday Goldman was suggesting their analyst called for 3 more rate hikes this year and I suppose even they think inflation will be running hotter.

      Getting back to the point, I referred to a specific day and a specific outcome which is what might happen on FOMC day given the long bond (30 year) is sitting right on multi-decade support. I also said I don’t know what will happen that day so there is no prediction involved.

      You really need to read more carefully.

      And take your meds since you are losing your temper too often.

  26. Pedestrian

    Here is a 100 year chart of US inflation rates. Plug in the maximum option and take a look at where we are versus the past. You will probably notice immediately that the chart is forming a long curve and rolling over which warns us that the future holds a non-inflationary outcome (EG….deflation).

    You can use the chart to compare interest rates or gold if you like and in the latter case the differences are so remarkable that you really have to wonder out loud how anyone with even a little effort is unable to see that its been seriously overpriced during much of the past century.

    There is simply no getting this across to the gold bugs though. Whether through willful ignorance or mental blinders they invariably will not address this kind of chart because it always contradicts the narrative that gold is inevitably headed to the moon.

    But facts are facts and a great chart is worth our time to investigate and make use of because they do have predictive power. The So for those in the room with an open mind I encourage you to run a few channel lines on that 100 year chart and see if you can divine whether gold will be flying or flopping in the next decade.

    The answer looks obvious to me.
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

  27. dboz

    Well, if you believe that, then you also have to believe the FED is absolutely insane raising rates into rising bonds for a double whammy. If they want to deflate the economy, this is the path for sure. Car and home loans are jumping like crazy right now. It is going to shock a lot of people with HELOC and ARM mortgages. Repo and foreclosures are going to go through the roof, both putting pressure on banks and lenders. I feel like it is 2008 all over again and we learned NOTHING.

    1. Pedestrian

      No comment on the Fed’s sanity. They are boxed into a corner. I’m actually in the camp that thinks inflation rates are probably being exaggerated right now as a means to give the Fed the excuse they need to hike (so they have latitude to cut rates later down the road).

      In a nutshell, this recent burst of inflation is totally contradictory when you consider where the dollar is going and that most commodities are still fairly flat. I mean, come on! Global growth is anemic. There are no shortages of anything important and most of the planet is heading into retirement.

      How the Sam’s Hell can there be real inflation?

  28. Americano

    Gold up .20%
    JNUG up 13%
    I don’t know how anyone that doesn’t have an addiction to Roulette could play miners without looking to see what Gary’s thoughts are before engaging in the randomness.
    As far as Ped’s comments- I love them. It’s context thru contrast & he’s a skillful ( & polite) writer.
    When people get all honked off at Ped it reminds me of my Pop who will ONLY will watch Fox news & gets pissed if anything else is on – like in waiting rooms etc.
    Why not welcome differing views to further flesh out your own?
    Old Turkey Bitcoin, Phys Silver Holder.

    1. Americano

      Nope. It can pop but it will also drop & when it does you will see it reflected in BTC price.
      Keep in mind today is the day after ETF for Bitcoin was denied! Day after LOL.
      Bitcoin is The HoneyBadger of investment vehicles – don’t take my word for it – wait till it gets past $2K or 3K.
      That will help my phys silver too!
      Thank God ETF was denied – it would have given a COMEX – like ability to manipulate BTC like I’ve been dealing with in silver past 9 yrs.
      Like Battered spouse syndrome 🙁

  30. pk

    Beautiful falling bullish wedge on the 15 minute gold that just broke up. The wedge was a perfect backtest of the channel that gold broke up out if from its 1261 peak. Notice how tight the bollinger bands are on the hourly. Perfect setup. Letter rip!

    1. tulip

      pedestrian… can you go away and start your own blog??/
      the rest of you can go there and be happy…inc you robert and you pk.
      you are here to misguide…

      1. Pedestrian

        No thank you Tulip. Its customary for the person who does not want to contribute to the discussion to excuse themselves first.

        After you dear.

  31. Goild

    No, no, no, please, stay here.
    This team is awesome!
    One day everyone will agree and everybody will make tons of money.

    I only could trade a bit today to pocket $965.
    JNUG did quite well today, but tomorrow it may come back to $6.

    I am expecting gold to go down with the rate hike, and this time there may not be a gold’s fair lady to make it go up that soon.

    Though for day trading it does not matter which way it goes.

  32. zkotpen

    Agreement is not the goal.

    Who was it that once asked me my long, medium, and short term prognostications?

    Metals: Yearly goin’ up; Intermediate goin’ down; daily goin’ up.

    And if you wanna get even longer term, cycle, goin’ up (sideways, actually); supercycle goin’ down.

    In other words, the fractal patterns don’t even agree with each other. The market perceives this, and the market is made up of humans, some of whom post on this blog.

    If all of these cycles were in alignment, then sure, there would be general consensus. If even the cycle, yearly, intermediate, and daily were all in alignment, perhaps for a while. But that is not the case in the precious metals. All were in alignment near the end of June, 2013. That alignment weakened into the 2015 low. People thought there was a realignment at all those levels for a half year, until they realized there was dissension at the supercycle degree.

    Oops!

  33. chrisG

    Why should ped goes? He has been right enough times to voice his views.

    And regarding the above video, once I watched the part saying SM was manipulated upwards post election…. I stopped watching. Er… Trump is enemy, so they manipulate it upwards??? Lol

    I repeat, off election, banks fly. Why? Bcos market expects Dodd Frank removal and less regulations. I have said this several times already.

  34. Pedestrian

    USD just went bullish with an almost 30 points move higher in the past hour as gold drops to 1200 and makes it clear we are likely headed for another low on this falling cycle. Yen is dropping predictably from its dome pattern however keep in mind it may bottom a little more than a penny lower and then be ready to rally taking gold up with it.

    Exactly when that happens is always the challenge to figure out but it could be as early as this week and perhaps even on the day Yellen speaks. Keep your eyes peeled. I would not want to be on the wrong side of the next move since it could have a lot of penned up energy behind it.

    Should Yen/$ break down from an important 3 year old support line its going to be a bad day for gold. I think whatever happens next though is going to offer a clear signal on the markets next direction so this is a big deal in my books and worth monitoring for any change in mood.

    Meanwhile I will leave you with another chart to watch.

    This one is the Eurostoxx50 and as you will notice it has been rising towards resistance which I believe could be one region that will mark a top in stock markets. Not a final top of course but rather a point from which some sort of correction will ensue. My best guess is Eurostoxx’s is now withing a mere 100 points or less of the moment of truth.

    Look at the chat for yourself and decide if this idea has merit. The Nikkei which I ordinarily use for cross-indices analysis is also closing in on resistance and the combination of these two charts could be offering us a warning to stay cautious at least for the short term.

    Somewhere in the 3500 range on EuroStoxx may be the point that brings corrective relief to markets…..
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=m1

    1. Pedestrian

      Maybe I will talk just a little more about that EuroStoxx chart I linked above and explain what I am seeing that might not be obvious to others here. You will notice that on the monthly level of that chart you can easily see three peaks and two bottoms.

      What I am keying on is the spacing between those peaks (and troughs) and noting that the last peak has, instead of falling back to the chart bottom in 2016, instead turned back up towards the prior high of 2015 and is possibly about to create a double top.

      Charts are often rhythmic in nature as they rise and fall along their path and I don’t think this one will be any different. What would surprise me in this case is if this indice did NOT correct after reaching its resistance point because it is in the timing band to fall back.

      EG: what goes up comes back down and vice versa. (the existing chart makes that case obvious)

      What would not surprise me is if the double top is left translated meaning it slightly exceeds the previous high set in 2015. Whatever is going to happen though is probably not far distant in the future as you can readily imagine by projecting the next move based on the prior peak.

      As I often comment, most developed market equity indices travel together so when one falls, most of them fall. And that is the essence of my prediction here that should EuroStoxx hit a pothole then by implication the DOW and S&P will also have reached their apogees.

      I am not by any means calling for a crash though so get that idea out of your minds. I am only saying we should see a notable corrective decline coming into play that will be meaningful given the obvious and visual cyclical nature of the rise and fall of this pattern.

      A similar but slightly more complicated setup is also apparent on the Nikkei. Have a look at that too.
      http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=m1

  35. Dday

    Gold and dollar moving between supports and resistance.
    101-102
    1191-1210

    respectively.

    Can’t see either breaking out until after Wednesday.

    1. Pedestrian

      Exactly, gold is capped by the 200 and following it lower so its pretty bearish. The RSI is on a sell and the MACD is rolling over getting ready to make what looks like an MACD double bottom. Thanks for posting that. I don’t see any reason to get too excited other than over the short term and on dead cat bounces.

  37. murakami

    Ped, Dday, thanks for insights, monthly charts are quite persuasive. So, in best case, gold could be in a range 1080-1320 for some time.

    On the contrary, there may be nice upmove developing in biotechs, looking monthly chart. Anyone prepearing LABU positions?

  38. Dday

    I would agree and disagree the monthly chart looks neutral regarding technicals and gold is currently touching the 50. I would say a rise above indicates possible further strength and a fall would indicate further weakness. In a nutshell its difficult to say using the monthly, my best guess would say sideways movement for a while. On the weekly things look more bearish although the RSI is quickly approaching oversold. Its no clear to me either way, I would say gold is at a very important juncture and it could go either way…. Just my interpretation

    1. Pedestrian

      So the verdict is sideways.
      Unless it goes up in which case its bullish.
      Or maybe it goes down which is bearish.

      Are you an Elliot wave guy by any chance? LOL!!!!!

        1. Dday

          Sideways, as in no break to $1000 or $1300+ within the next couple of months. Sure it will go up and down…..

  40. zkotpen

    Ped,

    I do recall looking at that Eurostoxx 50 chart on occasion, albeit never with my settings plugged in — not yet (I did, at the nudging of a friend, take such a look at the DJIA all the way back to the beginning of the 20th century — which was most eye-opening!)

    At any rate, I agree. How would one say it, in European terms?

    It looks ‘Positively Medieval!’

    😉

  41. zkotpen

    Ped & Dday,

    I, like R.N. Elliott, refer to the principle premised on patterns & fractals as, “The Wave Principle”.

    I also refer to the “80/20 Principle” as such, not the antiquated “Pareto Principle”

    Though I have deep respect for both Elliott & Paredo. I’m blown away by what Elliott could do with the charting technology he had at his disposal in the early to mid 20th century.

    If he had modern charting tools, well, his charts would look like mine.

    To be sure — a decisive move getting underway in the next couple of months?

    I’ve been saying the next couple of decades, since late 2015 or early 2016. Maybe even before that. But prior to late November, 2015, I was saying it on a hunch, a feeling. Since then, I slowly keep observing, noting, updating, one little candlestick at a time.

  42. zkotpen

    to clarify the above: I’ve been saying the next strong, long term move in PM’s takes us well into the late 2020s or 2030-ish. Not the next few months.

    1. dboz

      For sure. There is absolutely nothing that could happen over the next 15 years that could possibly alter that chart pattern. Just like the charts called for this time to be the longest bull market in history. Just like the bond charts called for the lowest interest rate run in history. Just like the charts called for years with absolutely zero corrections in the stock market. Just like the charts called for a dramatic rise on election night and through the rest of the year until now, even though there has only ever been ONE positive January in at least 15 years. So yeah, charts can tell it all, especially 10-15 years out. I am going to start trading that one today.

  43. Goild

    Good morning,

    So far the best take is that gold is in channel around $1200.
    Gold needs to still drop a bit to, perhaps to $1170-1180, to complete the lower part of the cycle.
    With the interest rate hike, and without the metals fair lady help, gold seem to me going down.
    A bit confusing is the XAU bounce.

  44. zkotpen

    dboz — and anybody else reading his comment:

    Don’t mistake YOUR INFERENCE as some sort of IMPLICATION of mine.

    I implied NOTHING that you infer.

    I meant what I stated EXPLICITLY, and ONLY that.

    My long term outlook serves only as context: The long term trend in metals is a current sideways/rally of cycle degree, within a larger correction of supercycle degree. Surely there will be significant market moves along the way, and they will provide trading opportunities for millions of people. Some will make gains, others will take losses.

    To be sure: Your INFERENCE is NOT my IMPLICATION.

  45. zkotpen

    Gary,

    To follow up from yesterday, I’ve got GDX closing 9 cents above its 10 day SMA.

    Looking at how the day shaped up, I think it’s hanging out in the vicinity of the 10 day SMA, getting ready to go after, with its eye on the declining 20 day SMA, for a first target in what I still believe will be a left translated daily cycle.

    Short term volatility shriveling up in gold and miners prior to that move. Even if gold does appear to be held in check by its declining 5 day SMA — for a second time.

  46. MegaMind

    Looks like I have a buy signal on gld… we could get a big bounce in gold tomorrow and that could take miners above higher…

  48. zkotpen

    Goild,

    I’ll give you my input, which is becoming clearer today.

    I agree about gold going down to its ICL, but only AFTER completing the current daily cycle RALLY.

    As I look at GDX at the open — with all the talk about whether or not gold and GDX are “diverging” or not… suddenly, they appear to be lining up:

    Gold is about 2.3% below its declining 20 day SMA; GDX is about 7% below its declining 20 day SMA. Sounds like a set up for near term convergence 🙂

    At any rate, as the daily cycle rises, my next target is the 20 day SMA, which will probably provide resistance a little bit above it. All my charts at all degrees of trend (below supercycle degree) are regressing to the mean or, hovering thereabouts, in the upward direction, until the next move into daily cycle high, after which the IC decline will resume, and trends will start doing different things, at different degrees.

  49. zkotpen

    MegaMind,

    I could meet you in the middle (for now) on your lower GDX target:

    Somewhere between the 20 day SMA (~23.25 & falling) and 23.80 area.

  50. ARends

    Gary, Ped Zkotpen

    Apparently March the 15 has huge significance for the Rothchilds in history and celebrates many milestones and historic events. However the debt ceiling also comes into law if some can remember in considering the influences of that and the plan of the Oneworld currency Yaun was linked into last year that was mentioned to be in circulation by 2018. So all events considered with the rate increase and previous arguments on money printing these considerations I did not hear in any of the arguments .

    I believe considering these points mentioned we could possibly have a different ray of event unfolding soon. Would love your insight and appreciate your comments, possibly your flow of events. T^here is a plan that could possibly start to unfold with all fundamentals stretched. Point made in previous arguments to inflation/deflation , correlations with fiat currencies will change. Gold value in in this conundrum is also determined to be under valued rather as $1600 to calculations.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGzdpvgTPsc

  53. Robert

    This doesnt look right. GDX got halted almost immediately at near 22.2. It cannot even sustain a decent rally. Is the top in already? This looking like Garys scenario where it bounces for 4 days and then start back down to new lows

    1. Gary Post author

      Once gold confirms a DCL then watch the 5 day RSI on gold. Once it tags overbought that’s when we’ll know whether gold finished an ICL or still has one more leg down. At the moment gold is still oversold. There should still be plenty more upside left in miners until gold reaches overbought. Between now and then there will be plenty of intraday wiggles to fleece the day traders.

  54. zkotpen

    Robert,

    That has been my scenario all along (though not ready to say exactly 4 days):

    Left translated daily cycle in progress, with volatility currently squeezing before the move to the DCH.

    1. Robert

      Got it. Well from your and Gary;s comments there should still be room for upside even if left translated. Ill try not watch the wiggles

  55. bluelagoon

    The weekly and monthly MA’s just aren’t lined up for gold so can it really go up past the weekly 50MA? It doesn’t look like it to me. Seems it might tag 1220’s but then head down the rest of the month. Open to other thoughts.

  56. zkotpen

    Word of the day at dictionary.com:

    Arithmancy, a kind of divination by numerology…

    … from Ancient Greek

    I reckon that’s what technical analysis is.

    🙂

    1. TraderPete

      LOL

      I took a class in college on numerology. Very interesting. But, I consider it on the same level as astrology. Maybe Mahendra uses numerology along with astrology to divine the markets. I’ll have to ask him.

  57. bluelagoon

    Wow – the whipsaw action in miners the past few days – just the usual before the Fed announcement tomorrow. If you are brave enough to buy – you pretty much make money on jnug or jdst if you buy low and sell high as they are moving 10% each day. Interesting enough – gold has remained flat. So perhaps banksters are now manipulating miners as they can no longer do it with gold.

  59. bluelagoon

    Does anyone have a “proven and tried” strategy on how to play Fed day? I usually find that if you buy the “winning ticker” after Yellen – you are guaranteed a profit shortly afterward. Caveat is I’ve only tracked this the past 4-5 Fed announcements.

  60. Robert

    I dunno man, this is not good price action. It’s now possible that today was the top in GDX. I’m gonna keep holding but wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow gold just collapses

  61. Pedestrian

    Sold JDST for a gain of 1.70 per share. Looking to enter JNUG next depending on how it all comes together towards the end of the day. Otherwise I am out until tomorrow after the FOMC because I just KNOW I will get hooped buying anything in advance!!! 🙂

    How do you like that for self confidence!

    1. Robert

      Good play on JDST I didn’t see this selloff co.ing so quickly. Gdx barely made it over 22 and poof now gone. You feel miners still have a chance to go higher than today’s high?

      1. Pedestrian

        Look at the JDST chart on a three month time frame (does not work on smaller charts as the info is not clear enough).

        The last two days move up is pretty much just a bear flag and once its fully formed then I expect JNUG to take off. The trick to playing these things with any success Robert is to watch both charts at once. You get your buy and sell signals aligned better that way. For example a double top or H&S will form on Nugt and I will know its time to enter JDST even if JDST is not giving a clear signal.

        hope that helps. And yes, I think gold will bounce very soon and take miners up. I have taken encouragement from what may be a breakout coming on the 30 yer bond chart. Today’s bounce back may be foretelling tomorrow’s action. Recall that the 30 year was virtually right on top of its decade long support.

        So the most important charts to be watching right now are your Treasury charts.

    2. bluelagoon

      Nice trade Ped. If you don’t mind sharing – what prompted you to get into JDST again after being in it twice and out yesterday? I’m trying to learn and watching the shorter term charts as you advised in one of your post while back. I see turns but am not confident if it’s “the turn”. Perhaps I just need to hop on the train and have a mental stop?

      1. Pedestrian

        This will sound like a tired out old expression but I basically buy weakness and sell strength. I use channels extensively in conjunction with Bollingers and the RSI. Sounds complicated but when its all on the screen at once it takes just seconds or less to make a decision.

        Practice makes perfect though (I am not perfect btw)

        Today when JDST went vertical I just sat on the sell button until I felt we were near an acceptable top and then dumped it. Things that go straight up tend to fall right back to Earth so I did not want to hold too long despite my earlier belief JDST could exceed 20 dollars.

        As you can see however I left quite a bit of money on the table as JDST has kept powering higher and my original assessment was probably the correct one. Anyway, if JDST keeps going up I will enter JNUG at 5.60 which I think is where it will bottom and then with luck ride that up tomorrow.

        Hope that helps.

        1. Robert

          You mean this is a bear flag forming on JDST? Kind of confused. If anything it’s a bear flag on GDXJ because the initial move was to the downside. And today’s drop is signaling we might retest last week’s lows

          1. Pedestrian

            My apologies Robert. Use the one month chart on JDST to see what I meant. I use Yahoo for convenience so go there. Compare it against JNUG. If you are using GDX to compare that will not work too well since the chart moves slower and you don’t get the signal. There is a reason I watch the leveraged funds. The charts move really quickly. You have to play it by ear a lot. If you have doubts as time progresses then don’t buy anything at all and just wait. Price always comes to you if you are patient.

        2. bluelagoon

          Really helpful – thanks Ped. I was using RSI and Bollingers but not Channels so that’s a good addition. I appreciate you sharing your knowledge and trade entries with us – super great of you.

      2. Pedestrian

        Sorry, I didn’t answer your question properly. Todays JDST trade was the second one I bought yesterday. The first try was a flop and I didn’t like the way it fell back so I bailed out. When it bottomed a second time I bought it back in a lot cheaper and that paid off well today.

        The reason to use one minute charts is to find accurate exit and entry points. Larger charts won’t tell you exactly where price is at. I mean you can be 10 cents or more difference by using a 5 minute chart because the detail is not there. And it a dime if 5% of your trade it makes a big difference to your day.

        The other reason to use smaller degree charts is that you can see readily when a pattern is developing that tells you a directional turn is coming that is not visible on an hourly chart. You will know a bottom or top has arrived with a little more confidence or whether to hold or sell. Just try it by flipping between charts on a paper trade if you are not sure.

        Just use an Imaginary buy price and then try to time an optimum exit and see how you do. After paper trading a bit if you think you have the hang of it then make the trade real. Don’t get greedy. If you have an acceptable gain take the damned thing and run.

        There is always tomorrow to try again (most people lose at this by being greedy btw.) For your information I have only had a single losing trade this year. So it can be done if you keep a clear head. I posted my basic rules the other day.

        Rule number one…..never trade during an argument with your wife!

  62. Don

    GGX undercut yesterday’s low. I can’t say that was not concerning. If it takes out Friday’s low of 21.14, then the bulls are in trouble.

  64. Don

    Ped sold his JDST yesterday and then said he was ‘thinking” about buying it again. To quote: “Meanwhile, I am thinking of buying JDST again since it made such a nice double bottom just now.” Sixteen minutes later he comes up with this conclusion ” So gold will be going skyward and so will the miners.”
    He goes on with his usual and extensive blather but never says that he actually bought JDST again but then why would he if he thought gold and the miners were going “skyward”?
    Now he tells us he sold JDST today for a 1.70 profit. I say, just more rubbish from Pedestrian.

    1. Pedestrian

      Don you are getting to be a pain in the ass. In case you have forgotten I already told you what I did yesterday. I also said I was considering another buy at JDST which I did make and then wrote back to you the following:
      ————————-
      Pedestrian
      March 13, 2017 at 12:44 pm

      “I bought twice and sold once today already…..What did you do?”
      ————————-

      At that time JDST was selling near the days bottom. This is not complicated. Obviously there is some trust involved in what people say but had JDST cratered today you would undoubtedly have had no problem recalling my second trade and would be shoving that in my face instead.

      Please refrain. It’s not my problem you can’t trade.

    2. Pedestrian

      Anyway Don, I think I know what you are doing. By challenging my entries you hope to get me to post more specific details in real time like I was doing before so you can ride my coat tails. I am not giving you free trades though. I am pretty good at this and don’t need competition so you can slug it out alone.

  65. Don

    Pedestrian. I have to ask, did yoo blog on another website under the name ‘Enlightened One’? The author finally had to close down all comments in order to get rid of that clown. You sure do write like that guy.

    1. Pedestrian

      Watch gold to see if it turns North from its March 10th bottom in the next hours. The massive one day sell-off on JNUG suggests that a bounce is in store. I have decided to wait this out until tomorrow though because it is still not oversold enough for my liking at this hour of the day. Basic risk management calls for caution until the coast is clear.

  68. Don

    Ped: Ok, one hour ago you said “I will enter JNUG at 5.60 which I think is where it will bottom and then with luck ride that up tomorrow.” Now you are saying “I have decided to wait this out until tomorrow ” I don’t think you have to worry about anyone trying to follow your arm chair trades. The flop-flopping would kill their account.

    1. Pedestrian

      What is your problem?

      From now on all your posts are on ignore. I don’t care for anymore communication with you.

  69. Don

    Gary, thanks not deleting my comments and for allowing me to on this charlatan (Ped) and expose him for the fraud that he is.

    2. bluelagoon

      Don – we’re all big boys and girls here and can wade through posts to determine which are value to us and which are not – in which case – we refrain from reading them. So please stop your accusations and let Ped be or you will be the one we’ll have to watch out for as perhaps having other motives for being here. Enough people have posted how much they learn from and enjoy Ped’s posts – that speaks for itself.

      1. Pedestrian

        Thanks for the support Blue. I think the numbers speak for themselves. JNUG is indeed closing in on my target number of 5.60 I mentioned some hours back (not bad for an old guy eh?). Some conditions need to be met to convince me it won’t drop lower and disappoint though. I will need to see a bounce at support for example. Late day trades carry a little extra risk.

        1. bluelagoon

          You were right on Ped – JNUG hit 5.61. Though JDST looks like it’s topped or topping into end of day, it might have a bit more juice tomorrow am – so I didn’t get in. Someone put in a 900,000 trade at 6.90 in afterhours – not sure if that was manipulation or some other oddball thing these market makers do.

          1. Pedestrian

            Yeah, I got really good laugh about predicting to within a penny of the days bottom. Sometimes it happens though and since it seemed so auspicious I bought it after a few moments delay. I might be on to something here too as gold is just closing on 1200 dollars last I looked and the charts turned bullish for a bounce back. Yen and USD both rising. Looks positive so far.

            Hooray.

    3. terrywg

      Don, you’re just another salty gold bug. A little humility goes a long way my friend.

      Ped, zkotpen, megaman and I were the only ones warning about a crash in the miners. Not our fault that most here chose not to listen.

      1. Don

        The ‘crash’, as you put it, is probably over. I did my buying on Thursday and Friday ( go back and read my posts if you doubt my word) so today is just a pull back to levels that are still slightly above my buy points. I am not pleased about today’s action but I believe there is a good chance we have seen the bottoms in the PMs and the miners.

  70. Don

    GDX has not yet taken out Friday’s low. I think it may have been a shake out to scare the weak hands. I hope that is the case or I am going to be on the losing side in a big way.

  71. Robert

    Today is too much downside. Miners for sure will get a bounce but I highly doubt new high coming. We might be starting the next intermediate decline.

  72. Don

    Ok bluelagoon, I get it. You show up on this blog yesterday andmpst of your posts are in praise of Pedestrian as if you have been following him for ages. Come on, we know who you really are! Wink wink.

    1. bluelagoon

      Don – you obviously don’t do you homework or you would know that yesterday wasn’t my first post. And unlike you, who criticizes everyone and adds very little value, there are others on this site that I’ve been reading for a while. I am a sub of Gary’s but see there’s value in reading others on this site. I haven’t written commentary until now as I was still in assessment phase and learning. At this point, I’ll ignore all your posts vs wasting my time and only converse with those who are worth my time. I’m really beginning to think Don – you’re one of those paid to comment and throw everyone in the wrong direction. The way you post is just like those hired hands.

      1. Don

        Blue: “you, who criticizes everyone” . Could you be more specific? If you have been following PED then you would be well aware of the many many times he has made disparaging and condescending remarks to others. I have had enough of that and choose to give back what he deserves.

  73. Don

    Ok bluelagoon, I get it. You show up on this blog yesterday and most of your posts are in praise of Pedestrian as if you have been following him for ages. Come on, we know who you really are! Wink wink.

  74. Robert

    Im pretty sure Gary’s mind has changed now. Ped it looks like you are the only one here thinking that GDX can bounce and break todays high

  75. Gary Post author

    The banksters fleeced the bulls today. It should be the bears turn soon. I’ve seen this before. They whipsaw the market back and forth and clean out both sides.

    Very tough to trade unless you happen to know which day they are going to cover shorts and which day they are going to buy.

    1. daverobson

      Yes very odd since gold was only down 5 dollars . I think they will exhaust the bulls and eventually get the bears when they least expect it. At least June rates are expected to stay the same…… I think they will whipsaw everybody out. Wait for the ICL in summer I guess.

    2. Don

      Gary, the PMs didn’t do much of anything today so do you think it’s the bankster’s that are manipulating the gold stocks?

      1. Gary Post author

        The banks got busted manipulating the futures market. That’s probably out of bounds from here on. Get caught again and I would think someone would have to go to jail.

        The mining stocks are fair game though. There is no limit on how many shares they can sell short.

        Tough to trade a sector that the banks are using as their personal cash cow. They can push it where ever they want it to go when they want it to go there.

  76. Pedestrian

    Day is done. I did buy the trade after all and damn the torpedoes. So I’m in JNUG at 5.64 even though it might be a little early and not everything was to my liking. We will see if it works itself out overnight as is often the case. I like gold here and think its going to bounce for at least a brief rise. If I turn out to be wrong the bugs can happily mock me tomorrow.

    Just don’t say I never posted the trade!!!!

    1. Don

      That the stuff PED!! You are kind of hard to follow, with all the flip flopping and all, but welcome aboard the gold bull train ( at least for a while anyway).

  78. Pedestrian

    What the hell?

    I don’t know if this is a chart error or what but someone just dumped their JDST shares after hours and it crashed $2.50 all the way back to 17 dollars and 20 cents. Wow. I wonder who that was? Anyway, waiting to see if there is a big buyer of JNUG in the next little while.

    1. Robert

      Don’t know where your seeing that my platform not showing that. So basically your just doing a quick JNUG trade Ped, in today and out tomorrow? That should be the right move because I think today has cancelled any chance of a decent daily cycle bounce. It seems like either miners have not found the DCL yet or it just took 3 days to top and now we go to find the ICL Gary has been talking bout. I think today was my last chance to get out with a minor loss.

      1. Pedestrian

        I am watching the after hours chart on Yahoo finance Robert. Sorry but I don’t know what to make of it. And yes my plan is just a day trade bounce back from today’s horrific sell off. The risk is limited by the very late day purchase at the lows. Use the one day chart view to see what I see.

    2. Pedestrian

      And there it is. The trader who dumped JDST just bought JNUG and it shot up to 6.96 a share which is a buck thirty higher than I paid an hour or so back. Totally nuts. And then moments later it crashed right back to Earth again. But what does it all mean? Anybody have any ideas?

        1. Pedestrian

          OK, maybe just a Yahoo anomaly. Kind of weird but I have seen this kind of oddball stuff before.

    1. Pedestrian

      Many thanks Bob! That’s perfect and does prove I am not having a hallucination. Been ages since I have been to the NASDAQ site. So it looks like someone had a big change of play late in the day. Gold did turn bullish as it closed which I though was a very positive development. Don’t you just wonder though if that trader is someone with inside scoop on the Fed’s statement tomorrow?

      900,000 shares is one hell of a big trade…something like 5 million dollars in JNUG.

  80. Bob

    The trade makes no sense. Whoever it is could have bought it for $5,175,000 instead of $6,190,140. The other sites have probably assumed it’s an error or hack and removed it.

    1. Bob

      And now it’s gone off the Nasdaq site, although still showing as a “high”; probably until that gets manually corrected.

      1. Pedestrian

        Another fat finger. Sheesh. Still shows on Yahoo though. Guess we will know tomorrow. Can that really be a computer glitch? I mean someone had to manually type that in given the obvious delay between the JDST sale and the JNUG purchase. Or is this some kind of spoofing.

        1. Robert

          I think what ur seeing is the after hours prints that’s usually from trades earlier in the day. Something like a dark pool. It’s not showing on thinkorswim so I would ignore wat ur seeing on Yahoo because that is a delayed way of looking on trading. Stock to your platforms. If anything it would make more sense that the 900,000 shares was a trade done earlier today, a sell order. That explains why the miners tanked. Anyway glad on the trade Ped more than likely JNUG will bounce tomorrow but for me and anyone else who bought at higher prices I think we are screwed.

  81. Vortex

    Guys, don’t forget about the pending splits. Not really a big deal, but worthy of monitoring.

    Reverse Splits
    Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares
    Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares
    Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3X Shares

    The splits are effective at the open of the market on May 1, 2017.

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