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Gold not yet at extremes. My best guess, gold to $1300, silver to $20 before reversing……
I do think gold will likely make at least a higher high and turn the intermediate cycle right translated, but gold isn’t where the big opportunity is. Any gains at this point will be given back and then some during the ICL. At this point you are forcing yourself to time a perfect exit.
Stocks are where the big potential is at as they are moving down into a yearly cycle low.
any further losses in stocks will be recovered and much higher prices are ahead.
Stocks are going to complete a bottom this week. Maybe it occurred yesterday and scenario #1 plays out. Maybe they drop to a deeper low and we get scenario #2.
It doesn’t really matter. The next intermediate cycle will see the Dow above 23,0000 and the bottom will form sometime this week.
You can take that one to the bank.
You make some good points, as does Goild. Yes the dailys look oversold regarding the SM. But on the weekly its a whole different picture with macd just about to cross to the downside and stoch k line just crossed 80 to the downside. A while back you said that you don’t focus on the dailys because they are not great at picking direction changes. Whats changed?
It’s not just the daily charts I’m watching.
I’m tracking sentiment, which is getting bearish.
The cycle count is in the timing band for an intermediate bottom.
And the McClellan oscillator is diverging which often happens at ICL’s.
I’m just trying to figure out if scenario 1 or 2 is going to play out. Scenario #2 would be the easiest to trade. That would give us a bottom later in the week and then we would be able to hold for the next 4-5 months.
Kind of agree. What i’m thinking is if silver gains momentum, will the SM and PM’s rise together. In my mind it could be a few weeks rather than this week…..
I’m pretty sure gold is in a triangle bottoming pattern. It just depends on which trend line turns price back down to the bottom of the triangle for the next ICL. Either the middle of the night spike on election night or price during market hours.
Dday,
Good morning,
I agree, Gold is going up, and the miners with it.
SM is deteriorating, slowly and then rapidly as fears sets in.
Wise and good trading to all.
Got 1K JNUG shares at $7.03.
JNUG went for an overhaul and now it has brand new titan rockets to lift it up.
Prepare to experience a 5G trust.
Gary,
Why pay attention to the daily stochastics?
The weekly stochastics are more comprehensive of what is happening and they say SM is overbought for a long time, They also say it is about the right time to have a dip.
Because history suggests that when the daily charts get this oversold price is near or at an intermediate bottom. If we weren’t in the euphoria phase of the bull then I would expect deeper corrections. During this phase one has to be prepared to buy quicker as corrections may not drop as far as they did previously.
The bottom line: timing the perfect bottom isn’t necessary. During the next intermediate rally the Dow will go at least above 23,000 and before the bubble is finished the Dow will be above 30,000 and maybe above 40,000. Remember bubbles always go much further than anyone anticipates.
GMan,
You said the same thing about Gold last summer that one doesn’t need to worry about a perfect entry. Every long position will be rescued and there will be gobs of money. Problem with you is that, you get so overconfident in your analysis, you forget to consider a modest, rational thinking. You narrated the thing about energy market last summer and XLE.
Bottom line is, you got annihilated on election night and came up with a Market manipulation theory. l I like to consider what you have to say, but I take your approach with a grain of salt.
Nonsense. I’ve been saying for months that I don’t think the gold market is being manipulated anymore. I explained very clearly why I put the stop at 1275. Many people emailed me to thank me for getting them out ahead of that crash. A few ignored the stop and rode it all the way down but not because I recommended it. They just didn’t want to take a loss and so they turned it into a bigger loss. It took us a couple of attempts to get in but eventually we did get in at the bottom and we made back all of our losses and then some.
My read of the stochastics when they just enter the oversold band is: beware of a falling knife.
And when they just enter the oversold band is: ride the trend, sit quite, run the profits.
Ped,
It’s all about fractals. If you break down broccoli flowers, or a snowflake, or a market, or a zillion other things, or if you expand them, their patterns are self-repeating, at all levels, from the infinitesimally small, to the infinitely large.
Here, we usually talk about yearly, intermediate, and daily cycles. People are also trading one degree smaller than the daily cycle — perhaps even still a further degree smaller than that.
One degree above the yearly cycle (a.k.a. primary degree) is the cycle degree. I believe the move from the September, 2011, peak to the December, 2015 low in gold, for instance, is a cycle degree decline. Statistics & patterns lead me to believe that impulsive cycle degree move is currently being followed by a rally of cycle degree, which I believe will be more of the consolidating sideways type than the rising type. But it’s still a rally. When it completes, I believe it will be followed by another bearish move down of cycle degree, which would likely complete a larger degree move one degree higher still.
You and I have already discussed gold more as ForEx — “original money” — from different points of view. I talked about CPI, you provided an inflation-adjusted chart. I’m interested in charting gold all the way back to the invention of currency, presumably corresponding to the invention of written language, agriculture, and so on, maybe 6000 years ago. I’d say that’s a reasonable estimation of the big game changer for the humans: The invention of written language, which makes a lot of other important stuff possible, including agriculture, the rise of the nation state, currency, etc.
The timeless and universal currency is gold, whether we’re talking about a golden guinea or pistole, or some coin from 11th century Asia, or an ancient coin from ancient Mesopotamia or Egypt or Greece, or a gold brick, or paper gold, electronic gold — or your gold futures.
I believe that is what is meant by the phrase “gold is a store of value”, and I believe the market perceives this, at all degrees.
I believe that all degrees of trend are operating at all times. If the daily, intermediate, and yearly cycles make their trend line breaks after bottoming, so too does the cycle degree, supercycle degree,… and so on, all the way back to the beginning of currency. While the extremely large degree fluctuations may not be in our immediate view, the cycle degree — one degree higher than yearly — is certainly in view, right now. It has provided pretty stiff resistance over the past 9 months — and gold is within 2% of it today.
That leads us to our discussion of the implications of that trendline eventually breaking: Sure, they’re bullish — but how bullish? My suggested answer is cycle degree bullish, i.e., multi-year rally, no more, but also no less (i.e., lower lows would become much less likely over the next couple of years).
Subsequent market behavior will indicate likely patterns in play on a larger degree. I use math to try to get an idea of what that’s most likely to be.
Close for silver above the 200mda then we are potentially in for a strong rally. Will the pm’s and sm rise together, I don’t think so…..
Silver up big JNUG red ha ha ha ha make scene right? lol
Interesting behaviourial analysis on this site.
Interesting behavioural analysis on this site.
Over the last 10 trading days the Gold price has gone from 1196 to 1257, almost ignored. At the same time the S&P has gone from 2385 to 2337. Posts about gold has all but disappeared and SM post abound.
Something is screwy folks. I wonder what will happen on this site if gold goes to 1290 and the S&P goes to 2290.
PS thanks for all those posters who actually know about Nadeem Walayat track record putting it up to the forum. If Gary can do almost as good of a job I will be grateful
cheers Lies
Weird and difficult morning.
I need to go. Made $500 for lunch.
Good trading to all.
Why dont`t you quit your day job? This is only peanuts though compared to the thousands you make on an average day. You could also start a subscription service to make others rich too.
Goild, Do you believe that we believe you make thousands ,or at least hundreds every single day for your lunch money? Come on friend.
I think Gollum is FOS too. I spent 21 years investigating fraud, money laundering, and commercial theft over at the
San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department……and between here and over at stocktwits, l’ve never seen so many liars and cons.
Don’t think i’ve seen many trades mentioned where Gollum (Goild) has lost a penny even afted proclaimed direction reversed opposite.
LOL!!!
I just got rid of my mining stocks. I wish I had listened and sold them last week. Going to try shorting the stock market. I just bought 300 shares of SQQQ @37.95. I need a winner.
What are you thinking? the stock market is way too oversold to be shorting it now.
Major SM etfs, tqqq, upro, svxy, etc. doing well. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. Thanks, Gary.
DUST also doing well. This could be the place for a while for nimble traders.
JDST a winner too.
(So far anyway!)
House panel passes bill to audit the Fed
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-panel-passes-bill-to-audit-the-fed-2017-03-28?link=MW_latest_news
Thanks for the link Bill. I can’t see the FED taking the threat well Could get very interesting.
Moments ago, I sold off 60% of my silver ETFs. Disappointed with platinum but did buy a bit more a few minues ago. I think the potential for upside in platinum is better than silver at this point and will load up if it drops further. I am not concerned about the SM rally. I think we have more downside coming although it may not happen today. I prefer to be short the market rather than long as Gary is recommending.
Perfect entry there Don. Platinum is down 15 dollars since this time yesterday when you bought it. I warned you though. Platinum leads gold and notice gold is putting in what looks a lot like a big fat double top on the daily chart.
Whatever.
Likely, for SM it is the first scenario that is outlined in Gary’s video.
Bigdaddy: Good luck with that SQQQ. I have the same (plus other inverse ETFs as well as shorts), so we both need to be winners, as you put it.
When the cycles are working, invariably the days that they indicate for high’s/low’s will “feel” like the worst possible trade (complete cognitive dissonance). Hence, that is the reason that they exist anyhow. The herd always piles in when there is tons of “confirmation”, especially in our modern markets. Gary notes that nowadays, the best buy signals occur on undercut lows, broken trendlines, etc…the best sell signals (when they come around) typically are almost impossible trades to make since it will be ripping higher (like Mar 1). The machines operate in a very illiquid environment and these price vacuums are everywhere.
Upon review of the charts, I am not buying anymore platinum unless it drops down to the $940 range. The dollar looks like it wants to go up and that is going to affect the metals, at least for the short term.
Just sold my remaining silver. Looking toppy. Hope to buy back at a better price.
JJ,
Thanks for you comment. Let me address it like this.
Consider the time we are putting here. We wake up say 4, 5 AM and some days we close shop at the market close. It is an incredible amount of time and energy spent here. Would you be happy with making 10’s of dollars here every day? Of course not. The reason to be here is the potential there is to make big money.
I suggest to think about how much money one likes to get from the market. Be specific.
Terrywg, thinks high and he commented he made around $400K in the year. I believe him.
It is very important to have it clear, to have a vision, where one is going with trading.
It is quite expensive in terms of one’s life, not to say about money if one losses.
As per my status since I joined the SMT site I had made about $95K. But had a problem which I hope I have taken care of it, and lost $65K in about three falling knifes. Now I am at +$55K and hope to get back the lost money and get more.
Here is a quote from Seykota:
“Win or lose, everyone gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”
Don,
It is what it is. Let us be patient.
This might be the launch point for JNUG. At $6.50.
Goild, you said earlier that you bought JNUG at 7.03. Was that pre-market or was it at yesterday’s close? Doesn’t matter because the day’s high has been 7.02. How did you scalp 500 bucks out of that for your lunch? What kind of math are you using? Sorry my friend, but a lot of what you say doesn’t make any sense to me. Methinks you you might be a fibber!
Good call again Gary, no. 1 is in play.
Yes at the moment it is looking like #1 is playing out. Just like it always is the market turns right when everyone becomes convinced the trend will continue indefinitely.
I have to wonder how many times this will have to happen before traders start listening to me. Probably never as I’ve been doing this for 10 years and the majority still get it wrong at every one of these turns.
I guess it will never change and most traders will just never make any money no matter how much I try to help them.
JJ: Leave Goild alone. He’s a good guy and is trying hard to be a successful day trader.
Picked up SOXS 500 at 7.49 I think we have a SM sucker’s rally in progress.
For heavens sake stop!
You just keep shorting and you keep losing money over and over. That’s the definition of insanity. Doing the same thing over and over expecting to get a different result.
Forget about shorting until the stock market completes its parabolic bubble phase.
Gary, I have been following for much longer than most here (years) and I have learned that whenever you are really, really sure of something, I become more confident in doing what I do.
I’ve been begging you for months to stop shorting. If you would only listen you would have saved yourself all kinds of money.
The final euphoria phase of a bull market is the worst time to be short along with a baby bull. During these two phases the upward trend is just too overwhelmingly powerful. Trying to short during either one is suicide.
There are much easier ways to make money.
Kicking ass with JDST today @ 1.65 a share gain so far and still rocking and rolling. Looks good to continue higher. hopefully for the next few days at least. Oh ye of little faith. You really have got to stop bothering me that I am wrong on this market.
Ped: Can’t seem to find the comment where you said you has bought into JDST at any given price. Guess we will have to take your word for that. BTW, I made a pile of cash on silver and a drawdown in platinum isn’t worrying me. I am a much longer term trader than you.
Told you in last nights thread I would be a buyer of short metal/miner trades this morning.
Explained it in detail too with postings on gold and silver and companies referencing the bullish set up on the short side. Told you about a dollar/euro reversal as well. You didn’t answer that post since you didn’t want to stick your neck out and say I was wrong however you foolishly bought PPLT despite my warning you the Euro had topped out at precisely 1.0949 and that told us metals would fall today.
Live and learn Don. Its your money. You should know more after 40 years in the market though.
———————————————————————
Pedestrian
March 27, 2017 at 9:58 am
Euro topped out today at 1.0949 today so expect gold to begin to fall back as it declines and US dollar rises. I see good set ups on the inverse metals and miners trades as imminent. Maybe this is the end of the market correction after all. TLT is on a sell as long bonds also peaked. The Nikkei bottomed on a perfect pivot and Yen/$ will also sell off tomorrow. So its back up we go in US stock markets. No big complications here after a review. Looks like an easy read to me.
——————————————————
Pedestrian
March 28, 2017 at 12:17 am
GDX needs a close above 24 dollars to refresh the bullishness on that chart. An inability to exceed that level on a close this week means price will remain trapped below its upper rail resistance line and it should be sold at any good opportunity, not bought. Personally I am going short metals and miners again today unless something unusual happens as there is a good trade to ride down for the next while.
Bailed @ 15.70
Good enough for me.
Nice exit Ped, but I still can’t find your entry point in this blog. Maybe you posted it some where else or perhaps this just another example of your famous ‘armchair with hindsight’day trading skill?
Why would you bail when you have been so sure the miners are going to go down further? No conviction?
To buy the next pullback Don. I was watching it on the one minute chart and wanted to hold longer but when I realized it had overshot the top of the channel I realized the top was in. I missed 15 cents during the delay and some confusion about what was happening. A machine would have caught that but unfortunately I am merely human and had to chart the thing by hand and make a decision.
The post referencing my intention to buy is linked above. I did tell everyone here what I was doing and then I followed through. Why bother doubting me all the time when its right there in black and white?
Bet if my trade was a mistake you would have caught it instantly and rubbed my nose in it.
Oh look…….platinum just took another dive. Sorry bud.
Ped: Still holding my 1200 JDST from last week. I believe we are now starting the decline to the March lows, which was my target when I bought last week. I intend to try to ride it down but get an itchy trigger finger with profits. With this modest position hopefully I will.
I`m considering DSLV, like right now. Any thoughts?
Good work KHT! Your up 3 dollars or so I think.
I am just waiting for DSLV to touch down but not yet certain if that will be on the lower channel line or if it makes a double bottom. Somewhere between 21 and 20.50 looks like a decent entry though. It just depends on silvers behavior in the next few days since a bottom can take time to play out and I like to avoid buying too early. Often enough there is more than a few good chances to choose the lows so I don’t get panicked if I miss the first buy point but rather just wait for the next chance to emerge a day or so later.
Thanks for the reply Ped. I added 300 JDST for an ‘even” 1500 so my cost basis is now 13.72. If JNUG gaps down in the AM or there is a big move in my direction I might pull the trigger. We`ll see. I do think the miners are toast until they test the March or maybe the Jan lows.
Good point about DSLV. There is plenty of week left to get an entry, and plenty of downside potential, especially if the USD did bottom today. I think this week will be pivotal.
Agree.
DSLV looks like it has a lot of room to move up and I really like the technical set up. Whenever I am buying these leveraged ETF’s though I always consult an index and a few major mining charts to see if my ideas are correct.
For example, if you check on GDX today you can see it did indeed fail at the 50 DMA and before hitting 24 dollars like I suspected it would. But it may be forming a triangle right now and could bounce back once it hits 21.90 or thereabouts so I would not overstay a welcome on the JDST trade no matter how sure I feel about it.
I *think” that there is some good downside in gold and miners in the next while but I don’t let that stop me from changing my mind if the thinking is stinking. These 3X products really should not be held for very long and most especially if the trade goes South. In that case I just bite the bullet, take the loss and live to trade another day.
Happily its a rare occurrence anymore. But I have had practice (and smashed an account or two in the process). One day I really should tell you guys about the beatings I took when I first started trading.
It was NOT very pretty!
Pedestrian, you have been posting negatively on gold and the miners for months, all the while they were going up. Why are you bragging over some minor winning day trade ? Not so impressive.
The easy money is made on the upside.
The satisfaction is making hay on the declines.
Bought PPLT at 91.07. It looks like it is going to turn back up soon.
USD sure made a push. maybe a low?
Gold and silver pulling back.
Ok, Ped, to “buy on the next pullback” makes sense. Be sure and let us know what your buyback price is in real time, not hours after the fact. I am sure you would like to appear more ‘credible’.
Jesus man, I posted my plan with details the evening before. What more do you want?
Plan? For a day trade? LOL! My ‘plan”, weeks ago, was to accumulate mining ETFs and the metals. I sold the miners at a nice profit and most of my metals in the past few days, all posted here. My ‘”plan” is to accumulate platinum and wait until it becomes profitable. My ‘plan’ is to be well positioned when the stock market cracks fast and hard. I am confident that my ‘losing ‘ positions will become winners in a very big hurry. I am not a day trader and day traders don’t have long term ‘plans’ . Successful day traders look for opportunities, news, events, calamities, etc, because they know what the term ‘fading’ means. You don’t know much of anything and will never be a successful trader. Your inflated ego will always be in the way.
That’s where you are wrong. I plan every trade.
I have only two losses since the year started.
Lets see you top it.
Pedestrian, man, why are you always stirring up trouble? Don said earlier that he has sold all his silver and you just had to go and make a smart assed remark about his platinum purchase. Don seems to know how to make money and has made some dead on calls. I appreciate his knowledge of the markets. Quit being such an ass, for everyone’s sake.
You go first. I’ll follow.
Gary,
I am glad that so far your take is correct. It is nice to have a good leader and awesome if he is right,
Hope your SM bubble actually takes place.
Ped,
Cheers also for you for having it right.
JJ,
Yes, I did buy JNUG at $7.03 in the morning. But if the security goes against me, I sell it, right?
I did about 50 trades today or 100 executions. The profit today is $960.00.
Actually, I paid the house about $400 in executions, ~$4 each, and probably $800 in slippage.
As per yesterday I have 1433 trades for the month. The house gets its share or about $5.6K. They like me very much.
I wish I could see how a master day trader trades.
Wow. I am really shocked. I want to believe you are just making this stuff up but I do think you are telling the truth. What you are talking about is not trading though. It’s a gambling addiction and I hope you have the sense to stop soon and think seriously about what you are doing. Goild, I don’t generally have more than one or two trades on the go at a time and these days I check the charts every which way to Sunday before I make a final decision. Its not stressful that way. What you probably need is less firepower and more practice aiming.