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Interesting analysis on oil based on cycles but I just have a hard time believing oil could drop to around 40 given that it would need some kind of macroeconomic trigger and I just do not see it. Let’s see if you will be correct.
If I recall correctly back in 09 10 11 Miners crashed way ahead of the rest of the market? History repeating…so many bargains coming….
Hi Gary!
This is in response to your post suggesting me that I and others will never hold on to jnug/nugt over an extended perios of time.
I fully take responsibility for my trades, so I never follow anybody blindly.
Yet, based on your advise I have purchased a couple of thousands of jnug and left them alone to see if your predictions work. I have to admit that I am skeptical but I am willing to gamble a small amount because I feel that you are a very smart man.
I plan to hold them for a loooong time. Just for your info. I haven’t sold them yet. My purchase price averages a bit above $11.
btw this purchase has nothing to do with my trading in jnug/jdst which I often do and have done quite well so far. Interestingly, for these trades I use this site as a contrarian indicator.
You should use actual sentiment for contrarian trades.
You need a subscription to sentimentrader.com
Thanks
Pedestrian I still feel gold and miners will pop for a few days. Gary say this is intermediate decline but it cant go down straight. And seems to be a DCL, I would say GDX 23 and gold 1230 possible? Then down to new lows, maybe gold 1180 or less
Daily cycle low for miners due Gary c/mon cant just keep going down now into next month
I think at this point the safest way to play this is to assume that the DCL won’t occur until after the FOMC meeting. Plan accordingly.
Gary, I do not think there is a chance in hell to see your low 40s or just under in crude. I notice that your cycle predictions for lows for assets tend to be way off quite often and think crude will not go below 48, if that even.
Based on the oil glut, though never talked about, it is beyond understanding that oil has not collapsed completely.
It will be interesting to see how long “they ” can control prices.
Heck it’s already at 50 and this is only the first real down day. The COT is ultra bearish and sentiment is dead neutral at 50%. It usually drops below 30% at ICL’s.
Just cannot see oil falling another 20% but time will tell if you are right or not. Should know in next 1-2 months like you say.
Hi Gary, I am still in cash for another week. I personally think your “Term” DCL is much over used and is not a practical trade strategy or method… as is such when your so called Daily Cycle Lows fail… This term might be ok in Up-Trending Market… I am not saying that you misuse… but I think a lot people liken this “DCL” to “Bottom Fishing” if you like carp that is fine… I would rather have you focus of getting Investor to buy at the Correct Pivot after a “DCL” instead of having people get in early and blaming you. I am sure you are are aware of “Pivot Points” based on end of the day data… in my early trading years… I can look back at my mistakes and find that most of the bad trades were because I did not use Pivots and tried to buy early and got stuck holding… but that was years ago… I hope this helps everyone… Pivots Points are a great tool and free… a basic understanding of moving averages and supply demand are important… also I don’t buy the story of “Market Manipulation” when big moves happen against your calls… it’s all about supply demand… I understand that Market Makers and Specialist Run Out stops… if I was in there position I would do the same to meet the supply and demand… that is not manipulation… those are my Two Pet Peeves… I see overused on this Blog… DCL and Market Manipulation- p
Manipulation of the metals Market is a proven fact. The banks have already admitted to it. Trying to claim there is no manipulation is like trying to claim that the Earth is flat. We just try to work around it and anticipate it if possible.
It’s all about Supply and Demand… yes I know about the Naked Shorts the Big Boys have… but even that gets balanced out in time- p
Looks to me that gold just broke down from its pennanr pattern. It’s not much yet but the drop is below the channel and falling so I will assume at this point another day of declines lie ahead. Tell the truth I had my doubts and did not buy what initially looked like a bottom forming on NUGT that could have led to a bounce. No regrets. There is nothing worse than taking a trade and almost immediately going underwater on it. That just frustrates too much.
Should have written pennant….oops
I think the JNUG last drop before the session close will be cured tomorrow morning.
So I loaded 2K JNUG shares.
I agree it looked to me like JNUG has been putting in a bottom. I added more today also.
Me too. Too much agreement here …… a bad sign indeed.
I bought some silver and platinum as well for longer trade.
Wow, some of you guys are really committed. Either that or just crazy. I’m still short (of course) but always on the lookout for the turn. I just could not get the confirmation yesterday before the close and judging by the early morning action am happy I made no changes. Gold is now nearing 1200 and silver has fallen another dime.
I was pretty sure we were going to see 1200 yesterday actually but it was not to be.
Still got there. But just not on my schedule!
Needless to say I am delighted. Opening the screens a few minutes ago and seeing that PM prices were still falling was a bit like being a 6 year old and discovering it snowed all night and then realizing school would be cancelled.
Sorry gold bugs! I warned you bad weather was coming!
There is the possibility that we made a mistake loading JNUG shares.
Tomorrow is a Thursday, a strong day. The SM just hit the daily averages.
Tomorrow the SM can drop 1%-2% pulling further down the miners.
Better got rid of them.
TMV is doing well. It should do even better going forward.
Looks like miners are going to pop up at least 20%…Gold could still go down along with Silver while miners make the run up… The big question is what will happen in April/may when French elections kick in and start supporting gold…
Only explanation I could come up with is that all Equities are going to rise up along with dollar…BECAUSE… all of these assets are safe haven for global uncertainty…
Dollar is safe haven for euro collapse and carry trade
Gold is global go to for asset protection
Stocks are all assets that could go up when we have govt uncertainty…
Above are few random thoughts on a tired night…
Loading up JNUG??? Should have loaded up on DUST people. The level of optimize still existing in gold and golds stocks is still too bullish IMO. More correction coming and like Gary said could well test the Dec. low. That would be the time to load on JNUG or NUGT. We’ll see.
“The level of optimism..”
LOL, thanks for the correction.
And I thought you were talking about detergent.
Gold may be in these days in run away mode, in domino effect.
Asia, will follow US, then EU will do the same as fear really makes things move.
So tomorrow may be another bad day, and Friday too, why not Monday and Tuesday, to have a big drop on Wednesday.
Then the safe will be fully broken and the riches at hand.
That will be gold around $1170-$1180.
That would be the bottom of the channel and time to load the 3X leveraged funds.
Some news about GDP.
SM may be sinking sooner.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/economic-growth-expectations-are-quietly-falling-through-the-floor/ar-AAo28Zj?li=AA4Zjn&ocid=spartanntp
The time to load up on triple leveraged funds is at an intermediate cycle bottom.
I don’t see any sign yet that gold is at an ICL. It hasn’t even generated a left translated daily cycle yet.
My best guess is the ICL is still 4-7 weeks away.
That being said there will be a bounce sometime during that period to draw traders back in too early and keep trapped longs hoping.
During the declining phase of an intermediate cycle price doesn’t stay overbought very long before topping and moving back down. Watch the 5 day RSI. When it gets overbought you should probably sell any remaining shares and get back on the sidelines and wait for the final ICL.
But it can sure stay oversold longer than expected. For example the RSI-5 has already spent two weeks in oversold territory for NUGT and had a buyer being using that to time an entry for a bounce they would have been way too early. If you look now though you will see the default RSI-14 that Yahoo uses has just barely reached oversold and you can see we are closing in on a rally.
But I would be very cautious people. Silver has a lot of downside remaining in its chart which is a warning gold is not finished falling either. Bounces need to be treated with respect. Don’t overstay your welcome in other words since the trending declines will resume again.
By the looks of it we will see NUGT falling BELOW its December 2016 low point and GDX also mean reverting to its Dec 15th bottom at 19.00 dollars. Which by the way is not much of a dramatic call at this stage of the game since that’s a mere 2.35 lower than yesterdays close. But the gold chart has pretty much convinced me that 1150 is now baked in the cake.
If I goes below that a lot of metals dreams are going up in smoke if not crashing in a snarly ball of flames.
Wrong… ICL or DCL whatever term you use to justify a stretched Downtrend… buying in a Downtrend is just wrong and early… I recall last September you asking people to buy GDX and look what happen… you have to wait for the Downtrend to End and Up Trend to start… I respect the fact you finally told people to stay away from Miners… but this is not the group to play right now… my advice to all… stay in cash and wait… after an Up Trend starts… there is always a brief Pull Back… and that is good time to enter… sometimes these Pull Backs are very small when the Up Trend is strong… we have all seen how the Miner ETF’s act… they need more time… on a weekly basis… the Down Trend is still strong… just my opinion… no reason to risk cash now- p
Nonsense. We had a losing trade. Everyone has them. We’very recovered and now have more gains than we did at the summer top.
Folks there’s always going to be somebody claiming that they have the Holy Grail and never lose on a trade. Obviously this is just nonsense. There are thousands of ways to make money in the market I like to use cycles and sentiment. It doesn’t mean that I will always have a winning trade or pick every bottom perfectly but it does work more often than it doesn’t.
I disagree… but I was rather new to blog around that time and I almost became a subscriber… until I saw you telling people to load up on GDX around 27 near September of last year… I remember reading all the complaints about those who followed your advice… but I was glad my charting skills told me to pass on that trade… not being subscriber I am not sure if ask people to place a stop for protection… so it is possible some people did not listen and held on anyway… no offense- p
or super secret indicators
No, just secret is enough.
Are you really 22 Bang-jang? How come that’s no surprise?
Gary,
Thanks for providing advice on when possible get into the miners.
I wonder if you can provide a primer or refresher with some definitions, like
Cycle=?
ICL Intermediate cycle low=?
DCL Daily cycle low=?
Left translated=?
Right translated=?
YCL=?
YCH=?
These would be helpful for many to follow your comments.
phony terms to justify buying early… learn to buy the Break out after a Pivot Point is met… real simple… for uptrend… you need on a daily basis… Higher High Higher Low… for Down Trend Lower Low Lower High… The Buy Pivot is usually near the Previous Days Close… but the fun thing about Pivots is they also give Support and Resistance levels for the day… such as S1, S2, S3 Pivot R1, R2, R3. Some day traders Buy the Pivot and sell into Resistance levels and if real strong you might hold over night sell in the morning near the high… I hope this helps some- p I don’t like Misinformation… I do not think those terms are Practical and Gary is the only person I hear advocating then… I don’t know if is method that he made up or is trying to pass on… it may have some value to him… but I am sure that others are using in a profitable manner… so yes… gary some Clarification of those terms would be great- p
Gold now at $1205.5.
It appears that indeed Asia is dumping it.
Yup cant believe this. Same thing as last year could just go straight to 1195 by tomorrow. No bounce nothing, I just want a decent bounce to get out of miners maybe with a small profit. This must be the longest bear market that gold has ever had. Ridiculous
A decent bounce?
Robert I just don’t get you at all. Miners have been in steady decline since February 8th already and I have been warning you to get the hell out the whole time. GDX has already retraced 65% of its entire move since last December and now gold has fallen 60 dollars in just the last 8 trading days!
What did you expect? Waiting for a bounce in a case like this is a trap because you will just be holding on until its far too late. And when the bounce comes you may even be lulled into the idea its a keeper so then you get to ride the next wave down too.
Remember I warned you miners lead metals? And that it was an important sell signal when we got that huge divergence. We really need to do a review of the past month action because this was an easy trade set-up even if you did not time it perfectly.
Some of you guys were getting pretty self righteous about your bullish outlook during the month and telling me I was wrong too. My feelings were not hurt but what bothered me was I was not able to help anyone here avoid losses. Lets try to get this right next time.
Imagine, two days ago I was holding 69K shares of JNUG and thinking to leave them for a bounce.
Had I hold them one or two more hours I would have made money. But I could not stomach having so many shares. How stupid. The lesson cost me a big chunk of profits.
Goild if you have that much money trading miners honestly you should prbly only put a smaller portion in JNUG. That is just way too much risk. Your better off buying individual miners like ABX, IAG that dont decay
Robert,
Thanks for the comment.
I think I will do what I did in December which worked well. Started building a position in NUGT and increased to 10K shares. Part of the other money should go into GLD, SLV or GDX or I do not know. I think I need advice on how to invest it rather than speculate with it. Individual miners/companies for my taste are also risky, Though currently is hard to find a place to truly invest with the imminent fall of the SM.
So, I think I will wait. However, there might be a very good opportunity with the miners in the upcoming weeks.
I am finding that day trading works well for me. Today for example I pocketed $1.8K. So unless there is a good oversold situation, or the action indicates an imminent rise, I would be very, very careful about leaving shares overnight.
2.572.
If you round up That’s the number a lot of people talking that money starts flow into bonds from stocks. But the problem with me is David Tepper says “Short bonds long stocks;*
Hey, I have nothing against, in fact I respect people making billions dollar from trading. But this guy comes out public giving you unsolicited free advice; there is a good chance he is trying to dump bags for you to hold. DrunkenMiller in a less extent also does this. Now he is back on gold. So watch out. This guy has a lot to do with election night gold price movement. The problem with following these guys you can never mimick their unless you front run them. More than likely when they open their mouths, they are probably looking for bag holders . But I have to warn about David Tepper. I have seen this guy comes out on CNBC says ” Buy” and same day and next few days he’d be selling.
So think about what he said ” Short bonds long stocks” Now I am very hesitant about shorting bonds and stocks.
Exactly right Ed. You might recall this one too…
On February 18th, 2017 Alan Greenspan said during an interview ““Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection.”….
I was killing myself laughing at that one. And so I immediately came onto Gary’s site and told everyone here we had an unconditional sell signal on gold.
What happened next though was so typical. Gold buyers who adore Alan pushed up prices another 25 dollars the next few trading days before it topped and we have seen declines ever since. The story is always the same. As soon as some famous or successful investor (or ex Fed Chairman) starts to talk up a trade its time to get the hell out.
Here, read this short article from Kitco for a refresher. And remember, next time Alan Greenspan says to buy gold (because of inflation of all reasons!!! ha ha ha) that its your ticket to getting out of this market whole. You don’t even need to read charts to understand how this works.
These guys are laughing their asses off at the bugs when the do this because the reaction is always so predictable. But its NEWS so Kitco runs with it. LOL!!!!!!
http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-02-17/Gold-Standard-Needed-Now-More-Than-Ever-Alan-Greenspan-Comments.html
Good morning,
You know? For the bandwagon and horse to move ahead, the horse must be in front pulling the bandwagon.
So let us settle the issue whether the miners lead or lag gold.
Of course, gold prevails leading the miners.
Some times the manipulators play tricks and allow gold to appear lagging the miners.
The result is a miners crash as is happening now.
Why?
A trading 101 chart shows it.
Just compare the miners (XAU) to gold (I used GLD) for the last two years.
The 2 year period is key as to reflect more data.
After the election day drop the miners were manipulated to stay higher. A significant divergence was
created which is now gone.
Hi Gary
Your S&P target is close to mine on 2438.35
If it reach ±5 that level an falls from there, I espect a nice correction, but I espect another leg up, maybe two or more, until 2019, then a bear market and depression not seen since 2029.
This numbers are using demographic statistics.
Waiting this correction in gold to buy too.
Regards and good trading to all
This is a great site. I’ve gotten tons of good buy ideas here over the past 18 month or so. Some I pursued (like JNUG, BBH, LABU, EXK, ERK, WDC, INAP, UCO, etc), and some I did not (FXY, SDRL, UDN, etc). So, anybody have thoughts on what a shopping list would look like when the buying opportunity comes? Thanks.
Holding 3K JNUG shares at $6.52 average price. I can handle the swings.
Pedestrian, I bought miners too early because I was thinking that we would have one more leg up to test gold 1280-1300 and I was wrong. No I will not continue to hold, I was simply asking your thought on a bounce from here. Feeling there is a decent chance because the stock market should have a bit more to selloff at which point I think gold will get a bid. I am planning to sellany decent bounce in Gold and then buy the stock market. That is my plan but its not working so far lol
There is always a bounce. Especially after a lengthy decline like this one. Maybe it will start Monday. Who knows when exactly. All I am interested in is that I have a buy signal when it comes. Typically there will be a few days up to as long as a week of basing after this kind of fall that gives you plenty of time to identify a decent entry point. So I am in no hurry here. “V” shaped bottoms are the exception rather than the rule. But in any case Robert I won’t be holding long. As soon as I buy I am already going to be looking for the exits.
This is a bear market. Surprises are to the downside.
thanks for the post… your one of the see’s it for what is… A downtrend is downtrend… going in early or trying to bottom fish is a risky game… it’s me to even think of making a trade like that… when risk- reward to Failure is very high… why not wait for the Breakout to be confirmed… you might not get in at the bottom… but your not taking a huge risk…
This is why most retail traders don’t make money. Buying breakouts is usually a poor strategy in modern markets. It worked 10 or 15 years ago but rarely works nowadays.
Buying a cycle bottom is much less risky. You know exactly where your stop is and it’s usually less than 3% away. Buying a breakout your stop could be 10-15% away.
based on my charts
Targets for NUGT = 11
JNUG = 10
may be in couple of weeks…
I think thats too high Mega. Maybe 10 the most on NUGT
Kudos my friend. I am getting the same target prices on JNUG. Very surprised to see the bullish reversals didn’t arrive this week. Miners have to rally for sure no matter what.
I am hoping for the rally next week to get out of my position. Gary is right, time to give gold a break and go to other sectors. We might lose everything in an ICL
what magic did you use to come with those targets… any indicator or these just prices you like… telling the market what to do is account killer… I try to be Expectation Neutral and follow the Market action… Price Action- Higher High Higher low, lower low lower high- along with the volume- if you want daytrading or swing trading targets use Pivots Points… I was just curious how you came to your target- take care- p
that does not tell anyone how you arrived at the target
Ped, I do believe you should finally have a small profit on that DSLV position . Are you going to sell it now or do you see sliver and gold sliding further? I am buying silver and gold assets as am quite sure we are going to get a rapid recovery.
Yes Don, I am in the green and now I can tell you I also added it to along the way. I will be holding for some time as well (in general). What I mean is that I will sell it once I feel it has peaked and buy again at a lower level. This one is good for the next two months minimum. I am very bearish silver and the commercial COTs support my negativity in spades. Gold commercial COT shorts are also turning down and growing in number and that is an added sign of bearishness among the professional buyers even as retail gold bulls keep trying to long the bottom during what I believe will be a fierce decline.
Sold today near the top (so no need to ask me about it everyday anymore!)
DSLV is due to correct and I don’t need to wait longer. Plan is to pick it up again after its next decline. Looks like we are finally getting a reversal in miners too although I have doubts its going to last very long.
Where has Option Trader been? Wondering about his view on Silver now.
Gary, it almost looks like a bloodbath phase in oil, or do you still see a drawn-out bottoming process here?
I expect oil will be rescued along with the stock market and still has 4-6 weeks yet before the final ICL.
Eerily quiet today. Minimal volatility. I am making my last stand right here. This is the end of the bullish rope IMO. Tight stops from here. Volume is very low and I had trouble buying shares in certain miners today. Took some time to get filled so minimal sellers. Sorry PED, you can tell me how blind and stupid I was if we crash from here. I appreciate you tried to warn me, I am aware of the risks, I see the charts on the verge of total collapse. Maybe I have gold bug fever? I see no hope for upside with all things stacked against gold and silver. It is Mt. Everest, but for the few that take the challenge and buy into the fear, the rewards can be great………………so can the losses. Red or Black. Fully positioned now and ready to ride up OR down. We break BULL market or back to BEAR right here in a few days. Dangling on a single thread.
Gold and silver are dead, like the Dodo Bird. I guess Harry Dent is going to be right when he says gold is going to $750 and silver is going to $10 or lower. 📉
Which would take gold to around 61.8% retracement of the total rally since 2001 to 2012….
Dday,
Actually, off the top of my head, that would take gold to around par with the CPI.
If gold is to track inflation, which I believe it does, sometimes it gets carried away and overshoots, and simply needs to get back in line.
Unfortunately for the prognosticators, it ain’t gonna happen tomorrow.
More like 31.4 years or whatever we were talking about a couple of weeks ago… decades…
For what I can recall, you used to write target prices “according to your cycles”. Well, that has stopped working since last month, isn’t it? Very quick turnaround my friend.
Cycles are working just fine. Gold is now in the declining phase of its intermediate cycle. I’e been warning people to stay out for the next 4-7 weeks, but most just won’t listen to me.
SLEP
I invest by demographic count, and my invest in the S&P hasn’t failme on that aproach, I use it on the médium and long run
Harry Dent has been saying since 2010, if I remember well, about the end of this bull market and the begining of the economic depression and bear market, but in my count he is wrong, but he is gonna be right soon (2019) because his count is coing to coincide with mine.
I’m trying to use other indicators for the short run and on other assets, and those fails on mi Reading, I supose do not know how to use it yet.
That’s why I say, that for me, Harry Dent does not have the correct count on demographics, being so, I supose his gold forecast is somewhat wrong to me.
In my demographic count we are repeating 1970 decade, but the 1980 bull market will not beguin as quickly but several years after, bringing us a depression in between.
So I believe Godl is in a correction within a bull run.
But I have to admit that I will begin to trade gold based on the demographic count and I do not have Price levels to trade it as I do have for the S&P
Harry Dent is a waste of time and money…
Harry Dent is a waste of time and money…
The gold industry is not crashing.
Gold has gains since January 2016.
The miners were too greedy, manipulated, and now they are leveling.
The rate hike is being accounted currently and gold will continue up.
GOLD BUGS cannot be wrong.
Goild,
And there you’ve expressed it so eloquently:
The fatal flaw of the human race:
That every single BELIEF is uncertain.
And yet the humans will kill for
and defend those beliefs to the death.
The essence of that phrase:
Human, all too human.
😉
zkotpen,
Thanks for the comment.
No trading plan, no money to be made.
I loaded 2K JNUG shares at $5.36. To start building a 10K position.
We shall see.
Today day trading gains are $1.1K
My God, I haven’t even thought about Nietzsche in about 31.4 years…
Man gold is f’ed up
Survived today.
I am back in cash. Sold my original 2k JNUG after averaging down today with another 2k JNUG and sold the 4k to reduce the loss. Tried to catch a bounce twice. I`ll go back to plan A and wait for a bottom to form.
GOILD said it best. Be very careful with any trades held overnight in the miners right now.
I`m starting to think there is something more to the miners sell off. A big sucker (bear market) rally. Everyone expected the 2017 rally to mirror the 2016 rally. I still think the Dec lows are in play in the miners along with a 1050 gold test and silver testing 14-15.
Also, on a fundamental aspect. SRrocco, who`s website is being updated, has been harping for quite awhile about peak gold/silver production and how it will drag the miners down, yet be bullish for the metals. In other words, physical supply issues, along with peak oil production and the night mare that will bring on.
For now, just going to wait and watch and if G/S goes lower, for me it`s just a fire sale as i will just trim the tree with my physical core G/S holdings and maybe catch a small paper profit now and then in a day trade until the market comes to me.
KHT
Best wishes for your trading.
I impatient as you can see.
Though tomorrow we can have a $1 dollar bounce in JNUG.
Who knows.
A fact is that JNUG has showed an incredible amount of resilience.
If JNUG bottom is around $5.2 many people would miss the bargain thinking
that gold will go to $750.
looks like miners have a quick bounce for couple of weeks… may be a blistering one…someone posted a chart saying April 28th as a turn date for a turn
Lol, u bugs love stress I guess. Picking tops and bottoms is the most stressful job in the world.
I’ve tried to warn folks not to pick a bottom, certainly not ahead of the FOMC meeting. What they hell are your thinking?
The intermediate cycle is too young, and sentiment is too neutral for a major intermediate bottom to form right now.
give it 4-7 weeks.
I love how they have these Target prices… but will not explain how they come up with them… Throw out enough numbers you might get a few right
But Gary, the bugs only follow u when u say up, not down, not even a wait!
I sold all of NUGT today.
I must be insane because I am making a same mistake over and over again, not accepting or not recognizing a growing odd against your positions. I am still holding all my GDX. I can sleep well even if gold price go down drastically. No one has a crystal ball. If I bail out now from GDX, I will never have courage to get back in.
I now have positions in FAZ and DRV, bought today.
I never considered FAS or FAZ in the past. But this time I have this weird feeling something is not quite normal under corrupted financial sector.
I don’t agree a rising interest rate is good for banks. People argue that higher interest rate bring greater revenue but I consider a total opposite as a result.
Higher interest rate, a higher loan default rate. In highly leveraged financial sector, this means a greater bank reserve requirements and therefore means a tighter liquidity, less lending activities.
This rising interest rate comes at worst possible time because now we have a perfect designated scapegoat, Donald Trump, for all those wrong doings of George W. Barrack O, Congress. Fed can be blamed on. There is no incentive for FOMC to keep and prolong current economic window dressings.
DRV is an obvious choice seeing all real estate activities coming screeching halt in few months due to rising interest rate. Then again, timing is everything.
It’s still too early to short and the McClellan oscillator is way too oversold to be shorting now. The end of March or early April will be a better time if you are brave enough to short this rigged market.
Intermediate cycle in gold still young but mark this we will get a decent bounce here very soon maybe by next week. The will be a chance for gold Miner longs to get out of underwater positions. A straight move down like this is not sustainable
How is it the move down is any more unsustainable than the move up that got us here?
Ped what do you believe… is it all Market Manipulation? I am tired of these excuses Rigged, Market Manipulation… yeah there have been cases of price fixing… but do you think it is day to day occurrence… and how much does it really effect Day Traders and Swing Traders… if you follow Price and Volume… you will avoid those Volatile days… or play them to your advantage… take care- p
Last night Asia/EU sold gold.
This morning in the premarket at low volume it bounced back; how come?
Either there is a GPT, gold protection team, or the manipulators decided to set a bull trap to get more money from the US market.
The old correlation between gold and oil may be still at play to some degree.
The drop of gold/miners is so substantial that they probably will not care now at all about FOMC.
I think this sharp drop in metals is perhaps foreshadowing tougher times ahead, especially if it continues; and perhaps even a recession down the road in six months time. I hope everyone is prepared for it. This will be global since every economy and every country is so interconnected.
Buckle up fellas….
If ETF is approved tomorrow Bitcoin is gonna make gold look like Confederate money.
Even if denied I still see $2K in 2017. Maybe more if Gary’s bond market collapse comes on.
Like $5K if that goes down.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/09/20170310_BTC.jpg
Dollar weakness and continued commodity weakness. Asia selling. Monthly gold chart shows gold failed to cross back on the macd. Weekly shows an even worse outlook. Six days of continuous selling…. No forecasts here, but gold doesn’t look great. Oh and oil sinking won’t help, although no confirmation on brent yet….
https://invst.ly/3f4fa
(monthly )look at that MACD failed to cross even with recent gold rally….
https://invst.ly/3f4fv
Weekly MACD and Stoch. All I can say is ouch.
One final thought. I know that gold doesn’t conform to all the rules regarding the H&S pattern, but check out the chart… I mean come on…….
https://invst.ly/3f4gl
On the other hand we could get a sideways period for the next few months. Like the period highlighted….
https://invst.ly/3f4on
Not a chance in a 1000. We are going down hard for the remainder of this year.
Very hard sorry to say. The bulls are going to be skinned, eviscerated and slammed to the pavement like rag dolls. Some will never return to gold as a result. The good news is that 2018 will open with a spectacular rally and finally bring these bitter years of a bear to an end.
You just need to survive whole until the time arrives.
Agree its a possibility. Just need to clean my crystal ball….
I keep telling you that gold is easy to read if you stay objective. I am not kidding. There is not any other commodity that is more analyzed than precious metals and none that have so many different chart viewpoints from which to choose. Maybe the problem is that traders get lost in all the data.
But here’s a tip….just ignore everyone else and just do the technicals on your own. As soon as you eliminate the bias and noise (sales gimmicks and manipulation) created by some well known analysts the sooner the charts will start to make sense.
I think the resent movement is starting to confirm Ped outlook but not final
Gold predict sees a breakdown PM and if could see $977
The Monthly chart shows a 97-month average between lows. The 2008 bottom arrived 7-months short of this average (90-Months). Is it possible the current cycle stretches 7-months to balance the series? We will know by June. Note: The 200-day EMA rests at $996.74. That should support price if we see another drop. Gold’s price performance between now and March 24th will either confirm or deny the potential for a hasty decline.
https://goldpredict.com/?p=7227
Correct AReands. Golds final, final low should come in somewhere between 950 and 1000 dollars. The chart has clearly not completed its bottoming process yet (monthly chart) so I have never understood all the bullishness in the analyst community. And frankly, almost every single last one of them has been wrong on this so far. They must just copy each others work since nobody seems to be thinking anymore. The most famous have declared new bull markets that did not materialize and in the process they led their subscribers into fleeting gains that later turned into very big losses when they failed to recognize what was really happening and bail out. Yet I have been able to stay on the right side of this market for years now without the benefit of any analysis other than my own. I refer to nobody anymore. I can’t be bothered to read all the flawed material produced each day. Not even Armstrong has bettered me in this regard.
The bad news (did you need more bad news today?) is that gold stocks based on gold and the indexes will completely retrace all their move since the lows were established in December of 2015. In other words we will see HUI back at 100, GDX at 13 and GDXJ at 19 (minimum downside targets).
More specifically I expect prices will dip below those prior bear market lows although exactly how much lower is a little harder to determine just yet. We shall know more as we approach the final bottom.
I can sure understand that few people present want to hear that kind of news but I will tell you anyway since gold stocks still have at least 9 more months in the hinterland before they become truly bullish again. By bullish I mean that you can buy and hold as the trend that follows will see prices moving up for at least a year or more. The rally I look forward too stands to be memorable and you will not want to miss it.
Between now and then we will be posting lower lows and lower highs on the charts.
Rally’s should be sold as opportunities to escape the ongoing declines. Alternatively there are going to be some excellent short trade opportunities. Just like the one we are now experiencing. And although I do expect some kind of dead-cat bounce is coming near term my bias will continue to focus on spotting the shortable tops as they arrive.
We are not in a bull market for either gold or gold mining stocks.
This is factually a bear that will make at least one more cycle decline lower before it terminates the pattern. The most bitter part of the pattern lies ahead of us now and during the coming months will utterly destroy the accounts of those who could not understand what was taking place in front of their eyes.
Can’t do anything about that. Horses can be led to water but that does not mean they will drink. And so it is with gold bugs who are unwilling to believe the chart facts because they are so enchanted by the sirens calling them to the rocks. So while I can warn, I really don’t expect anyone to believe.
Today I won’t bother linking any chart therefore. I don’t think anyone here reads them anyway. Either that or they cannot understand the meaning even when it stares them in the face. I will however tell you my analysis concludes we will not see real progress on the charts until AFTER the whole retrace back to the bottom is complete. The prior bottom was in December 2015 and we should match or exceed those lows by my estimates.
So stay very cautious with any long bets.
And be especially vigilant for each new decline as it comes. The price bias will be to the downside until further notice and unless you enjoy taking losses your best two options are to stand aside until this is over by late this year (2017) or to trade opportunistically either long or short as the case may be until the trend has run its course.
What more can I say. It’s all encoded on the charts. And I doubt they are wrong.
Ped, either you are a genius …. or an egomaniac.
If you are right and you are a genius, then I want to subscribe your trading service !
If you are wrong, than shut up and talk to your dog.
Genius and egomanic are close together – but the consequences are very different 🙂
I am the worlds best gold analyst. Its a fact when I go back and compare my calls to all the others. I am not an egotist though. I am not even a particularly proud person. And I don’t charge a penny for advice or publish commentary under my name because I don’t want the attention. This is just a personal challenge for me and my only reward is knowing I almost always get it right.
I respect yours calls Ped… I personally don’t set Targets… especially long term ones… Reason being… “There is Always the Unexpected” for me that means just stick to price action and it will show it’s true colors- thanks- p
Come on Pedestrian you sound just as bad as Gary when he was proclaiming gold/miners where going to make new highs by this date and this time. Sure it looks bearish, I agree….But writing predictions as fact… I thought you would use more restraint…..
Actually you are right. It bothers people a lot when I sound too sure. For awhile I tried couching everything I wrote in maybe’s and possibilities and probabilities because people can accept that more easily. Fact is though I am exceptionally confident about what I am saying even if I can get the timing as precise as I would like.
Just because you can’t read the gold market though does not mean I can’t.
There you go, making it personal…. As I said, no better than over bullish sentiment….
I can try and read the markets like anyone else, I cant predict the future….
Thanks Ped, I enjoy the postings and yes I do read/look at your charts. Its a difference of option regarding money (its not gold), if you are long you want it the price to extend and make more money.
Anytime Eurodisney. Glad I could be of assistance. Lord knows there is no money in posting charts that offend the fine sensibilities of the many gold bugs who populate these sites and have ever so much time in a day to argue pointlessly against the data. I am impressed that the crowd of bugs has not thinned over the years either. Seems a fresh new crop keeps popping up and its always the same blather they regurgitate. The whole lot are like brainwashed sheep.
They all read their charts upside down!
Avoid Setting Long Term Targets… “there is always the unexpected” that can be Upside and Downside Surprises… we all seen the Market turn on dime… some people are like deers in headlight… unable to make a move… we all know how bambi turns out… take care Dday- p
Avoid Setting Long Term Targets… “there is always the unexpected” that can be Upside and Downside Surprises… we all seen the Market turn on dime… some people are like deers in headlight… unable to make a move… we all know how bambi turns out… take care Dday- p
Looking at the time of the postings and the time in the uk where I am based, which ones of you are in Europe or are you all night owls in the us and Canada ?
I am in Southwest Michigan- p
Ped,
Yes, by all means post charts — I’ve clicked on most or all of your links, as you know — yen, nikkei, etc., not just PMs. It’s interesting stuff.
But hey, even if we get an undercut low — below 2015 — I still think the final bottom of the bear market will be more round that 2032 time frame we were discussing a few weeks ago.
Not sure if you read my post back then, in which I stated my premise vis à vis Gary’s:
Gary said the bear market was over based on his view of the 200 week SMA.
I said it’s not based on the 400 week SMA, and I stated my reason for choosing one and not the other. I’m standing by that. I use the 400, 200, and 100 week SMA’s. For me, the former is overarching on a long term basis. You could say it’s like the 100 month SMA (92 month SMA)… and that indicator is still rising. It’s gonna take decades to turn it down, and get gold more in line with the CPI. If gold is a store of value, then it MUST store value, NOT exaggerate it.
The bottom right corner shows you the store of value. If the paper market did not exist, those should be the actual value. 860 silver 7700+ for gold.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Good post. You have a current chart on inflation versus gold, Zkot? There was an excellent one floating around a year or more back and I can’t find it anymore. But it was damning as hell and well worth the time for a review since gold has gone well beyond inflation in the past few decades. I can’t locate it though or I would repost it for reference. An oldy but goody.
this is over kill… moving averages are a delayed indicator… follow Price Action… doing on Monthly, Weekly, Daily… it is all the same story… Volume… and either Higher High Higher Low, or Lower High Lower Low… Wow march is not even over… yes on a Monthly basis we have a Lower High and Lower Low… but the month is not over… it could easily wind up like March of 2016… a Monthly Doji of sorts… that did not stop the move up and look at May 2016 that Down Month did not stop Move Up… just food for thought… -p
But we should try to figgur’ out the shorter term, which is more actionable.
I’m wondering if we don’t get a daily cycle bottom today, which would lead into a very left translated daily cycle that would peak next week…?
Another possibility I’m considering: GDX takes out the December low, but gold does not. I was satisfied with gold’s December low — GDX left me thinking it didn’t go where it needed to ~$16 area or slightly lower.
Time for mango shake!
Ped thanks for you input!
I have looked at your charts and obviously have not the wisdom yet in what you automatically pick up in the meduim term is obviously ingrained with knowledge and experience with the tools and chart. You give it as you see it, by excluding bias with other external noise. No one can get it always right always , but mostly is all you need.
The key is that you can get out of the human nature of gold and see it for what it is in the chart. Our minds get into a bias with external information to chart pattern that gets influenced by other market bias. So it influence more that you might want to see in to it.
Charting seems to rule in the smaller moves that you seen to have a better grasp I can appreciate. So we sit that either be come external noise at some points which we have to recognise and you seem to grasp. One thing that I know ‘ only the wise is teachable’.
I appreciate the time you take many times to give your opinion. It will be a great for your input on this trade with the shorts and your moves to short and support info. The more get to know I realise the little we actually know.
Yes, and it will get worse as it all get manipulated also.
You are welcome.
It just looks like gold is doing what I was expecting it to do this year. Consolidating in a triangle.
Good morning,
It is what it is and that is it.
JNUG at $5.24 might be a good point to load more shares for an imminent quick bounce profit.
So I added 2K more shares for a total of 4K shares.
Gary, Gold COT report showed largest commercial short interest in 3 years last July. For just a 6 months rally out of the brutal bottom, that was a surprise.
You have any opinion on that? Producers want to sell more? Central banks dumping? Thanks
Commercial traders are regression to the mean traders. As price goes up they lock in higher prices. When it goes down they remove their hedges.
Sold 2K shares at $5.44 for $400 for lunch.
Wise and good trading to all.
What instrument and market are you buying JNUG. As far as I can tell its only on the NYSE exchange. I cant buy in the UK until the US market opens ?
Unless the times of these posts are incorrect, its 13.45 in the uk and the NY market doesn’t open until 2.30
Ped considering your and Zkotp POV I really like your imput, considering where we stand.
POV ads value for us in all the context. I also need to take a decision with many gold mines considering just holding which I believe I should but …Miners could revisit lows is fine. Making a buck on the way would be good. Not sure if gold would even reach 1024 considering elliot waves. I try and consider all know technigues that add value and I gues EW specialist would be on the ball to a good degree.
All technical knowlege should consider waves as part of the picture as all aspect adds value to the technical correcness and value.
I have a snippet of EW explaining that 2015 dec was end of wave 5 of correction wave that was down with one at starting dec 2015 with huge exceleration confirming continuation of bull and as gary said Higher high and higher low (which happened with axcelleration of a wave one) and then correction 2Nov until december 2016. The move up 2016 had to be wave 3, so then we would not have a lower low in my little knowledge of EW.
Any comments on this, that counter the proof of wave progress contrast to your POV?
http://www.elliottwave.com/Metals/Gold-Its-Not-Just-About-Supply-and-Demand
Two possibilities for today. Redo yesterday bull trap right after the open to later on drop, or walk the way to $JNUG around $5.8-$6.00.
There was getting to be too much bearishness. We probably formed the daily cycle low today. A 4-8 day bounce would give longs a chance to escape once the 5 day RSI gets overbought. Then we’ll look to reenter at the lower triangle trend line in April (when we again start hearing unrealistic targets in the sub $1000 range).
Gary you are 100% correct. Cycle low today and the bounce that I have been saying will come. 4-8 days sounds good maybe by FOMC? After that the decline continues
This resilience of the miners reminds of the one after election day prior to rate hike.
So we JNUG may continue channeling $5.2-$6.0 to drop 20-30% after the FOMC meeting.
there is no way JNUG goes up after FOMC meeting ????
Now, Goldman coming out saying rate hikes in June, September, December.
I am out. No sense pissing against the wind. What Gold have ever done for me except a lot of heartaches and sleepless nights.
Thanks Ped scaring shit of me this morning.
analysis from pmf
https://preciousmetalsforecast.com/2017/03/05/03042017-gold-silver-miners-dollar-weekly-analysis-report/
will there be rate hike in march?
I am sorry.
March is done deal. 100% what I hear.
This drip drip drip rate hike Fed Open Mouth Committee killing me.
I am done for while.
That’s waterboarding torture… Just you make so exhaust..
Playing head game. I thought USMC Boot Camp DI’s head game was bad. This is much worse.
Ed, they are just saying that to kill off gold a little more before Friday is done and drive sentiment lower. Its what they do to push prices down when they want to buy a bounce.
Ped: You have been consistently bearish on the metals and miners since the their rallies began way back in December of 2015. Anyone who doubts that statement only needs to take the the time to go back and read the ‘older posts’ of ‘pedestrian’. Both gold and silver are currently well above the lows that were established in December. I think it would be fair to say that you never made a dime during the most recent run of gold and silver. I don’t recall you stating that you were long anything gold or silver related. I think that those who are calling you a genius because you have l called for an inevitable correction for the PMs, are being a little too generous. If gold and silver do break the December lows, I will be in line to offer congratulations on your ‘genius’. Until then, your record remains of the ‘broken clock’ variety predictor. BTW, as of today I am buying moderate amounts of USLV. I concede that we may see some more downside in the PMS but we may have already seen the bottom. I don’t have a crystal ball. In any case, I believe the PMs are in bull market and my trades will pay off.
lol Ped is a PermaBear!
False.
I have been in the gold market since the late 1960’s. I am a gold bull who knows how to face reality is all. And as I keep saying, this is a bear market. You guys have to get over it or you will never understand what you are buying.
ped: I meant Dec 2016, not 2015
Drivel,
I have been waiting a couple days for a good tradeable entry on NUGT and a number of prior posts specify that. Basically I don’ care what direction gold goes as I trade both sides. You might try that for a change of pace. It might be a refreshing change of pace from the gold bug foolishness.
Anyway, I don’t think the problem is with my being bearish (during a bear market in metals). The real problem is most of you bugs can’t handle the truth. Not sure why I bother to help you since you are tone deaf to the topic.
So so as you like. No skin off my ass.
Ped, as I have said, I don’t recall anytime that you said you were long anything gold or silver related. Correct me if I am wrong with a copy and paste statement you may have made since Dec that clearly indicates that you were long and bullish. I just couldn’t find anything in your prior posts but concede that I might be missing something. I am not sure why you are looking at NUGT now when you were not all the time gold was going up. You are a puzzle, indeed. Perhaps you looking for a quick day trade bounce ?
I was posting my trades live during January. 100% wins on ten or 12 bets. Most were long side daytrades. You can go back and find them yourself and stop making insinuations that are based on your own faulty memory.
And by the way, I am up nearly 5% on DSLV now, ye of little faith. Told you it would pay off. A bit long waiting though since I had to hold some 5 weeks to get back in the black.
But I was right.
So, the odds are increasing for today being a repeat from yesterday. It is not unusual for a Friday to redo Thursday.
I pocketed $1K and now I am all in cash.
I am not wonderful, cool, or super happy.
This week has been terrible.
Human nature hardly changes and despite of being quite aware of the problem I got into the falling knife again on Monday. Out of $95K profits from about November, I lost by last Tuesday $45k. I need to eradicate the bad habit, of doubling, tripling, quadrupling, or more…
If one wants things to be done one needs to talk about them.
The $45K would have paid for the Mercedes my wife wants. Of course she does not know,
So, back to basics and be very prudent.
From Wednesday I have made $3.8K and so day trading is good.
I need to do the prudent thing to wait for the candles to align.
Though by next Friday we may have a bottom.
Have a nice weekend.
Wise and good trading to all.
Dollar index is going down two days, but gold still be decline, who can explain it?
To all folks who still not know: The Dollar doesn’t drive gold directly – most of the time the interest rates are driving gold directly, so look at 2 or 10 year us treasury bonds. Long term the REAL RATES are decisive. At the moment the real rates are very low, therefore gold will probably not go down to 1100 USD.
Thanks a lot
No, both the dollar and rates impact how gold trades. Different factors drive the short end and the mid/long end of the yield curve so the 2s and 10s can move in opposite directions. The yield curve steepens and flattens at different points in the business cycle. Vanbc, if you’re serious about learning then start with basics. Start by trying to understand under what circumstances the dollar rises and falls? Also try to understand what causes bond prices to rise and fall. That shouldn’t take you long and will go a long way in understanding how those move relative to other assets. Whatever you do though don’t just memorize correlations. If you understand the WHYs then you will understand and be able to anticipate when the correlations change. Good luck.
Agree Mac. Great post.
From Moriarty on 321gold
“That would be very bullish, giving a higher low.”
Thx for your info. I believe GDX and gold is bottom in. a new IC will start sooner than expected. GDX target $32 Gold $1400. New IC will be end April or May.
Hope so… I love your optimism even if I don’t wholly agree…..
I love how the stock market is slowing deteriorating and no one here is paying attention.
Up about 3% on my purchases yesterday. Still alive. That said, a GOLD close above 1206.10 keeps the bullish week STILL IN PLAY. It was not easy pulling the trigger yesterday.
The US dollar is taking a nice hit and it would seem that gold and silver are not yet reacting. They will. I have increased my USLV position. as well as my unlevereged gold miner positions.
Can we all forget about correlating gold with the USDJPY? When the USDJPY goes up $1, gold tanks 20. When the USDJPY drops $1, gold goes up $2. So it may be similar by coincidence but it is surely not correlated because it can’t just be correlated in one direction. That is all.
Hamilton thinks recently reported 4th qtr results are encouraging:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton031017.html
I thought considering fundamentals might be refreshing change of pace.
Is the miner rally a dead cat bounce or the beginning of something big?
You might find out by wtching RSI(5) on GDX chart. If it touches 70 and price falls, Gary’s call is spot on. If it keeps going, then maybe it’s more.
This is becoming a VERY PROFITABLE day.
WHOA.
Wow – what a move for JNUG – looks like it will actually go into the Fed meeting strong and then we’ll see what happens. 15% day for JNUG.
One hell of a rally.
Right about the time the bears start predicting unrealistic targets, that’s when the cycle bottoms.
Odds are good the daily cycle bottomed today. I would say sell once the 5 day RSI gets overbought.
Thanks!
Feeling pretty good about loading up yesterday. We will see if it is a flash in the pan or has staying power.
dust breaking down. nugt breaking up. What to do? Just the obvious!
i believe ICL is finished. New IC rally start.
Ped:, Yes, there were a couple of times where you were thinking about buying NUGT but you didn’t actually say you had done so . The following statement you made on Jan3 pretty much summarizes how you felt about gold and the miners.
Don, you still can’t see it?
Come on! Do you REALLY think Nugt won’t retrace 100% of its move since last January and do you REALLY believe its about to stage a big recovery and bounce back? After all the fall to date does it even make sense it would stop short of the bottom and start making current and past buyers into winners?
You need to be careful here. The trade is on the short side. It is the minority of players who ever make short bets though. Kind of a specialty area since most people are linear and think winning means only when things go positive (up). And of course most people are also optimists when trading and thus to buy short is negative since it expresses a lack of confidence in a market trade.
For gold traders and metals devotees this is especially true. They just cannot bring themselves to take a negative bet against the thing they love any more than they would turn their Mama over to the police for growing marijuana in the back yard.
Anyway, the Nugt chart is just awful to my eyes. It is most certainly not a buy right now. So if you cannot bear to bet against gold you should at least consider being a wall flower until it shows a better pattern set up.”
Then on january 4 this nugget from Pedestrian:
I think this bullishness is misplaced. To my eyes a drop is coming in both metals and miners and it could be quite sharp. But buy to your hearts content. Will any of you be contrite and apologetic for your brash overconfidence once proven wrong? How about you Bill with your call that Nugt will see 9 dollars today? Pretty doubtful friend.
Gold and silver went ripping upward for the next 5 weeks.
Ripping upward? That’s pretty funny. NUGT was basically flat all of January. The only “RIP” was from the 27th to the start of February when I entered a short. The whole move up during that brief period of bullishness was entirely erased and yesterday we ended the day 15% below NUGT’s January 3rd closing price.
Which is in line with my call to see price retrace all the way back to the bottom. How we get there isn’t really material since the forecast stands on its own. You doubted it then and you still doubt it since you already said you never sold during the decline. In fact you added more.
That’s two months of your life wasted and all you have to show for it are losses.
Good luck with that strategy. Feel better now?
Ped: I guess that 5% profit on DSLV has kinda gone down the tubes. That’s rough considering how long you have been waiting for it to finally get back to what you paid for it.
I sold at the top today. Will reenter after the corrective decline is done. Try to pay attention.
Gary why u think the intermediate cycle in gold top? This is a higher low so we can still make one more push to 1300 now
I went over it in one of the recent videos. When price starts spending a lot of time in the oversold condition it usually means an intermediate degree decline has begun. That suggests that a bounce won’t last very long and will then have one more leg down into a final ICL. A stair stepping down process if you will.
Maybe that will change and we’ll end up with some kind of weird 12 week cycle that bottoms along with the rate hike. I can’t say at the moment, but that’s not how I would bet unless something happens to change my mind.
Oh yes your right I forgot the video explained it. Sorry
Ped you seem to be on the same page as Gary IE. Miners will have a short term bounce now but it will just be a dead cat. I couldn’t find your post but why do you not think gold can go back to 1260 and miners near high? Gdx made a higher low than December and today looks like the bottom
The confidence coming out of Pedestrian today was startling!
Could the comment “I am the worlds best gold analyst” go down in SMT folklore as marking the bottom of the ICL in Gold?
I’m all for alternative views but the smugness from you is out of this world. Gary has timed his entry and exits in this latest cycle to absolute perfection and is getting practically no thanks as you are drowning everything out here.
Nothing wrong with a little confidence Hamish. Some of us get that way for good reason.
Did you short oil like I suggested? You might have made out like a bandit on an awesome trade if you were spending more time checking charts and less time criticizing other people for being different than you. I called it February 28th exactly one day before price rolled over and caught the whole move down.
Remember this?
——————————————
February 28, 2017 at 9:32 am
I mentioned this a few days back but its good for a repeat. What I warned about was the Canadian dollar about to roll over and go down as that is typically a good signal to follow if you trade crude oil. Well, after two days of declines on the Loonie (a penny total) and WTI is indeed taking a dip and if you follow oil you will see there has been a minor technical break that may indicate more downside lies ahead. I take my cue from CAD though and it sure looks like its begun a trending move down so this is probably a good time to consider oil shorts. Not the least of the reasons is the extreme bullish positioning of the speculative element. Naturally, almost nobody will agree so its best to do your own investigating here.
Pedestrian do you think oil can see $40 like Gary thinks? What is your oil bottom projection?
Thanks
Much, much lower. I think we will all be shocked just how low prices will eventually go but it won’t happen just yet. I expect the old lows will be broken in time. Consider for a moment that the dollar has at least 20 to 30 percent appreciation baked in its price over the next 24 months.
That in and of itself assures prices are not going anywhere fast since dollars and crude trade inversely one another (more or less). The implication of course is that as dollars rise versus other currencies that the experience in the US will not be an inflationary one.
On the contrary, given the demographic outlook, excessive debt, anemic growth, falling trade, high numbers of retirements and a low birthrate warns that a strengthening dollar against that backdrop will be dangerously deflationary.
And very unfortunately that cocktail of problems that has been fermenting for years already is nearly done. The conclusion is not far off anymore and with it will come social upheaval, high unemployment, falling asset prices and a litany of problems that I can hardly begin to cover in a single short post.
And there is absolutely nothing that can be done to offset the impacts since much of the problem cannot be papered away by more Federal Reserve interventions or fiscal initiatives. I expect something near a calamity as the next recession approaches and the pension system and social security system begins to falter and come unglued.
What people will discover when the chips are down is what really matters are not stores of silver and gold bars but rather a secure income or other revenue source that is immune to the economic downdrafts that usually accompany the end of a credit cycle.
Make no mistake though, anybody and everybody with an background in historical economic theory or a place in the political sphere knows where we are heading and they are already preparing. The vast majority of people will not weather this well though unless they are endowed with resources held outside the traditional system, plenty of friends or independent incomes.
Its a shit storm coming…….A deflationary cataclysm.
And it will wipe away the paper wealth of millions along with their retirement dreams.
I’ll take the other side of that trade. The long dollar trade is the most one sided trade in the world right now. This is exactly how major trend reversals from bull to bear begin. With everyone believing price can only go up.
We are not entering a deflationary period, we are about to enter an extreme inflationary period. I expect the Dow will go above 30,000 and maybe above 40,000 during this time.
Gold will produce its bubble phase once the bubble in the Dow pops.
This has been the pattern for the last 17 years. The Fed prints too much, and keeps rates too low too long. It causes a bubble or bubbles.
Nothing is going to change this time either. The same strategy will produce the same outcome as it has for the last 17 years.
No problem Gary. You have already been on the wrong side of the dollar trade more than a year and you have two more years to go. It is the minority of us in the deflation camp anyway so I don’t fault you. But you will all be wrong and that’s the way it always ends.
We have very good ideas here.
Unfortunately very few are wise and have the action training to take advantage of opportunity.
I am glad to read Dboz got good relief.
If there is no plan there is no money to be made. But also we need to have the experience to stick to the plan.
Indeed JNGUG at $5.2 was an amazing bargain.
Next Friday it may come back to $5.2 before departing to heaven.
Thanks for your thoughts Pedestrian but I cannot imagine oil getting to $40 let alone much, much lower like you think. I will be surprised if oil sees even $45 in the next few months before starting its run to over $60 in time.