172 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP

  1. Don

    What about the possibility of no profit taking tomorrow for the miners? This big move caught a lot of the gold bulls off guard and out of their long positions. This kind of situation can lead to explosive rallies that give the bulls no chance to get in.

    1. Gary Post author

      I need to see the short term sentiment levels tonight. If they are already extreme the odds will increase for some profit taking tomorrow.

  2. Gary Post author

    This one surprised me. Based on what they did to the miners yesterday I was expecting a big hit on gold and the bottom to come around $1180 either right after the statement or tomorrow. I didn’t think it would turn today without at least one big attack.

      1. Pedestrian

        So far all this gave us today is the makings of a right shoulder on the gold chart. Unless there is another big surge higher the negative bias remains in play with that head and shoulders in development suggests gold could still continue to drop further in coming weeks and erase all the miner gains of today.

        1. Pedestrian

          HUI chart looks like this action is just a bear flag and another element of the ongoing decline. I would not be surprised to see all todays gains gone a week from now. Absolutely nothing has happened today to alter the bear trend as seen on the long term chart. At most a little more upside might be expected but fast moves higher often come back at you as quick declines back to the base.

        2. Robert

          Wrong Ped. All negative bias erased after today. Huge volume and big bullish engulfing on all miners. You don’t just selloff completely from that. It’s rare, happened once tho in 2014 I think when they didn’t hike. I think we will get a pullback tomorrow but again no guarantee of that. I will add to JDST if it gaps down tomorrow because these extended moves majority of times correct themselves before continuing. As I said below barring some unforeseen event miners should continue higher and even if they stall as Gary is saying gdx should still run to at least 24 from my analysis. So sell JDST on pop and buy miners for more upside.

          1. Pedestrian

            Exactly the plan. I doubt I get the 50% retrace I need on this losing trade but we shall see.

    1. zbigkid

      You all are making this WAY too hard. Gold is simple. Miners even more so.

      What it all comes down to is one thing and one thing only: the Japanese Yen. If the US dollar can continue to be weak versus the Yen, then gold miners are going to rock and roll. It’s simple. USD/JPY goes down……..then miner bulls profit. Period. If you aren’t loaded to the gills with JNUG and NUGT, then you are going to miss out on YUGE profits, that occur in very short time periods.

  3. Don

    One of our resident ‘experts’ may have caused some to bail out of their long positions or refrain from taking out long gold and miner positions with his relentless bearish message. I quote from him on March 13 :

    “if Yellen does announce another rate hike, and particularly if it is greater than the expected 25 basis points, then gold will be slammed to the pavement and everyone here who is long is going to have a really shitty day.”

    Well, guess who was dead wrong and had a “shitty day”? I have been criticized for trying to make others aware that this clown knows nothing , despite all his blather that would seem to indicate that he is in the ‘know’. Follow this man at your peril.

    For those who wish to criticize my record, note that I sold all my PM leveraged positions at or near the top at the end of February and re-bought triple leveraged silver and gold positions at the bottom and the end of last week and those actions were announced here on this blog. I am not a day trader and hold core non leveraged gold and silver positions for long periods. I also have a stable of penny stocks that I bought for a few pennies that are all up two to five hundred percent. My short positions on the stock market are where I am losing but I have complete confidence that my shorts will pay off eventually and probably, very suddenly.

    1. Robert

      I respect you but im very sceptical of anyone who says they bought the exact top and bought the exact bottom. Unless you posted here live the time you bought and price then I find this hard to believe. If you can bring up back the post then I will believe you but honestly the only few people who post live here are Ped and goild I think. I will try to post live trades as well in the future

      1. Pedestrian

        Thank Robert. This guy is probably just a troll anyways. He is doing exactly what he accuses others of doing. Now he says he is suddenly up 500% on juniors (after a good day in gold). Despicable lying should not be tolerated by anyone here.

    2. Pedestrian

      You moron, everyone on this board is long metals or miners. Nobody followed what I have said which was take a short position on an up day. That was today so get a grip buddy. If anything, traders have a good chance to exit positions that have long been badly underwater and losing. Secondly, since the end of February this has been a shorters market. I did very well.

      But you got squashed and want to take it out on me.

  4. Robert

    Yes yes good analysis as always I believe profit taking tomorrow but it won’t be powerful. Buy the dip tomorrow on Gdx is a sure winner! Even if this bounce in gold hits overbought as u say and heads back down gold will hit at least 1230 based on the next major resistance. So GDX 100% will go to at least 24

  5. Robert

    Gary also today was the highest volume ever on JNUG. Doubting it even more now that this rally will be short lived. Should rally at least into next week

  6. billybob62

    Help me out here. The dollar tanked as the Fed raised the rate. The PMs went crazy based on the USD/JPY.
    The dollar should regain its upward momentum because higher rates will attract foreign money and Gold will go down.
    Gold itself was down 1.90 today according to Stockcharts so the PMs will get less for their products.
    Does this make any sense?

    1. zbigkid

      Stop. You are totally ignoring currency pairs. Looking only at the action of the dollar, will get you and everyone else here killed. (financially)

  7. Don

    Robert, your skepticism is understandable. Here is just one post that I made on Feb 26, concerning my decision to sell all my leveraged positions on Feb24, which was the day of the closing top for gold.

    Don
    February 26, 2017 at 10:08 am
    There have been many times in the past where the miners and the metals have dis-connected . Generally speaking, extended weakness in the miners is not a bullish development for the metals. I am not too worried about the current disconnected although I am expecting a pull back in the metals. That is why I liquidated all my leveraged long silver positions on Friday. If we get some temporary weakness, I will stick to unleveraged positions until the picture is clearer.

    Then on March 10, the bottom day for gold and very close to the bottom for silver, I posted :

    Don
    March 10, 2017 at 7:46 am
    Ped: You have been consistently bearish on the metals and miners since the their rallies began way back in December of 2015. Anyone who doubts that statement only needs to take the the time to go back and read the ‘older posts’ of ‘pedestrian’. Both gold and silver are currently well above the lows that were established in December. I think it would be fair to say that you never made a dime during the most recent run of gold and silver. I don’t recall you stating that you were long anything gold or silver related. I think that those who are calling you a genius because you have l called for an inevitable correction for the PMs, are being a little too generous. If gold and silver do break the December lows, I will be in line to offer congratulations on your ‘genius’. Until then, your record remains of the ‘broken clock’ variety predictor. BTW, as of today I am buying moderate amounts of USLV. I concede that we may see some more downside in the PMS but we may have already seen the bottom. I don’t have a crystal ball. In any case, I believe the PMs are in bull market and my trades will pay off.

    As it has turned out, my USLV is looking good now and I expect a nice payoff on my unleveraged positions as well. I am not asking anyone to follow my trades as I don’t really care but following Ped will most definitely punch big holes in your finances.

  8. dboz

    Well, sadly to say for me, I was fully loaded last Wednesday and Thursday in great positions. I had about a 10% stop out rate with the crash yesterday as I left things unattended for about an hour or two. I can’t believe that drop in a few miners yesterday afternoon. It was another waterfall. HL dropped below the low and caught me, so did CDE. I had lost a couple of BTG positions also. Of course the rallies on all 3 were big.

    I am now left far behind since I was basically in at the bottom and now out 10-15% of the move already. 90% of my funds were still in play catching this one. Now, like everyone, I am wondering if this is a one time flash in the pan, or is this the start of something big and time to get on in the basement before the launch accelerates?

    Hate to lose a monster day here and give it right back like yesterday. Of course several of these in a row would be fine with me and everyone else here except PED.

    1. Don

      dboz, at least you are honest about your mis-fortune. It isn’t fun being on the right side and then getting stopped out. Personally, I had to quit using stops because it seemed to happen all too often before a big counter move. I might be wrong but I suspect that today was the start of a bigger move in the PMs. Just my gut feeling speaking.

  9. mags

    Guys, no need to have a competition here about who is right and wrong on predicting the direction of the markets. I am mostly a hopeful PM Miner bull, but I really like going to boards like this to hear trading opinions of both sides bull and bear. For entertainment, today I bought shares of JDST at $13.31 and hope to hang on to it to $15+ Never bought JDST before, weeeee this is fun.

  10. Bob

    So, day 4 on a new gold cycle; USD has a nicely defined head & shoulder started just after the election and just waiting to complete the neckline on the right side at about 99.2. I’m starting to think there’s some room to move here.

  11. zkotpen

    Don,

    Kindly indulge me in a constructive sandwich here:

    1. You do make useful observations.

    2. You have a tendency to engage in bickering over side comments that are off-point, and that tends to irritate people — people that you might otherwise interact with in a more constructive way. You’ve irritated Pedestrian in this fashion.

    But what prompts me to take the time to make this post is you reaction to dboz’s comments on low volumes of individual miners. dboz made a valid point: “Be careful, volume in the individual miners is low. Big move on low volume means big pullback possible.” You reacted by bringing up volume in ETFs. dboz responded by referring back to “individual miners”. Sure, he added a side comment about day traders and ETFs, but who cares? That’s a side comment, no more, no less — there’s some truth to it, even though I’m sure there are plenty of ETF traders who have different time frames than 1 day or less. dboz’s central comment is on volume on individual miners. Take that comment on board, and use it as you see fit — or disregard it. Don’t worry about the sidebar.

    3. Keep posting the valid points you have, when you have them, as they are often insightful.

    Hope this helps!

    1. Don

      Zkotpen: Thank you for your concern and pointers. Generally speaking, my comments in the past tended to be short and probably not noticed by most. The only one I really have a problem with is big mouthed Pedestrian who has made disparaging comments about others and I finally could not stand that behaviour anymore so I am giving back what he was so adept at dishing out. His rubbish is just that, rubbish from someone who is pretending to be an expert. He flip flops continually and goes on about things that are factually incorrect. As far as the volume thing that dboz made a comment on, my point was that GDX is comprised of many individual companies whose stock volumes go up AUTOMATICALLY when new GDX units are created. The sponsor is obligated to buy shares of the component companies. Therefore, GDX volumes are more important than that of any the individual stocks. Also note that I have been in this game for nearly 40 years and am not some clueless neophyte. If I irritate Pedestrian, well, that’s just too bad.

  12. Don

    Ped, you ass, there you go making shit up yet again. I didn’t say my penny stocks went up 500% today. I bought my penny stocks a couple of years ago when the metals had bottomed out. I provided my list (that insiders were buying) to others here on SMT that wanted it but that was long before you began polluting this blog site with your rubbish. When a penny stock is bought for one cent and it goes to five cents that is a 500% increase. If one buys a few hundred thousand, as I did, it can be very profitable if even if they only reach ten cents. A real bonus is if one were to shoot up to a buck. That does happen although I have yet to be that lucky. I am still holding about six of these stocks and only one didn’t go up.

  13. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Looks like we both made the same mistake: We had the correct forecast late last week & over the weekend — I was saying 20 day SMA + left translated daily cycle in the midst of an intermediate decline; you were saying peak in gold on or about day 4.

    Then we each talked ourselves out of that correct forecast.

    Ped, you and I were all on the same page over the weekend, and it was the correct page, as far as I can tell. Then we got confounded for whatever reason & missed the big move. Fortunately, we didn’t lose money.

  14. Goild

    Good evening guys.

    Finally I get to be here after being with some nice visitors for most of the day.

    I was able to escape from my visitors for a few minutes to find JNUG around $7.5 and so I did short like 7 times, 3K shares from $7.2 to $7.51 to sell 21K shares around $7.36 for a day profit of $1800. So I was shorting the rocket. Too much risk but it was already at +32%.

    I am a bit unhappy as we were not able to even glean at today’s strong reversal.

    We need to use our brains more wisely.

    Big Investor, Three Mondays ago I lost $32K by losing my mind insisting over and over in catching a very dangerous JNUG falling knife. Then by the following Friday I did recovered $23K. The following Monday I did the same mistake and had lost of about $34K. I ended up that Monday with about 69K JNUG shares. On Tuesday I got scared, could not stomach having so many shares, and sold them for a total loss of $45K. Since then I have recovered about $7K. Today it occurred to me that on that Tuesday I should have asked you guys how to proceed instead. Had I waited one more hour before selling the shares I would have come about even or with a profit, and if I had hold them till the end of last Friday I would have made $70K.
    Here is where the trading phycology and the strength of mind play a decisive role. I am still up about $55K since November so things are no so terrible.

  15. zkotpen

    Getting into the present, gold maxxed out its momentum at 1219 on its 15-minute chart on the 14:45 EDT candle. That should represent the “middle 3” in the current move up. GDX hit a similar momentum peak on the 3-minute chart, at 14:45 as well.

    All continuation since has been on slowing momentum — still rising, but slowing. Increasing at a decreasing rate 😉

    In the wave principle, wave B is called the trap, and wave C is called the killer.

    You can just imagine what wave C of B is!!!

    That’s when the trap comes slammin’ down and snaps your spine. Unless, of course, you’re a smart mouse who yanks that big chunk of cheese out of the trap just before it slams down.

    Congrats to the smart mice — think of me while u enjoy ur brie 😉

  16. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Everything you mention is addressed in the book I recommended a few months ago, “Trading in the Zone”, by Mark Douglas. I recommend the audio version, $19.95 on audible…

    1. Goild

      zkotpen,

      Thanks for the suggestion. I have both of his books.
      Perhaps I should reread some of them.

      Ped, pointed out that “practice makes perfect.” Often this factor is neglected and in fact with time and dedication it makes a big difference.

  17. Robert

    Not understanding the rest of you guys analysis. Gary’s makes the most sense. Some profit taking should occur sometime tomorrow but then once its over miners will continue to new highs. Gold hit 1225 tonight. Its possible miners could gap up on the open but I expect
    1227 -1230 to be good resistance so will add to JDST on gap up. After that small profit taking and then we should hit 1237-1240

  18. Don

    Robert, I don’t understand what you you are thinking. You sound as if you are bullish on gold and the miners but then talk about adding to an already losing position by buying JDST. Why?

    1. Robert

      I am bullish gold and miners but just trying JDST as a quick trade. Not really losing much because I bought it at the end of day last 10 minutes or so of trading. Just doing it for a reversion to mean trade. I want to buy miners on a pullback

      1. Pedestrian

        I’m taking the loss on this one Robert. After looking longer at some charts tonight its just too bullish for metals right now. I hate to say it but that trade was a big mistake yesterday although its hardly a mortal blow. But unless there is some meaningful pullback in gold today then JDST is getting the deep-six at the first good opportunity and I will just move on to other pastures.

        RSI and Stoch’s imply it could see a rally soon but those tools are often not great for timing and this thing could stay oversold longer than anyone likes. Meanwhile, like all leveraged funds it will make mincemeat of you if you do no more than hold on waiting for a bounce. I think I already have a 50% loss on this vehicle (in one day!) and its going to be worse tomorrow given the look of the charts.

        At this point we need to consider the idea that gold could rise as far as the upper rail on the monthly chart if it stays this healthy. So we should be looking towards 1300 dollars at least before a real correction comes.

        No point fighting the tape. The market has spoken loud and clear and I was very sorry to read this morning that you bought JDST even if it was the very bottom. My suggestion is to dump it as soon as you get a good chance. Lucky for you your entry was timed well so you will undoubtedly get out whole at some point in the day.

        I am reversing my bearish leaning in other words and getting back on the long side ASAP. I have zero interest in holding on to a view that is clearly contrary to what the charts are now telling us. What we got yesterday was the decision we were all waiting for and it looks pretty clear so we can be thankful of that.

        We now have a direction to trade.

        Meanwhile, don’t let the know-it-all braggarts who suddenly claim to have made 500% on juniors overnight get to you. Those blowhards are a dime a dozen on blogs. They lie about everything and its always after the fact trading so they are perfect 20/20 hindsight buyers.

        This one particular hot-shot named Don who has been harassing everyone this week actually told Gary he used him as a contrary indicator and then mocked him for exiting his positions early. No doubt he is one of the people who has been busy trying to destroy this blog.

        Gary needs to block him immediately. Nobody can learn with that kind of person around.

        1. Pedestrian

          Sorry Robert, my math is wrong. The loss I took on that JDST trade was about 20%.

          The fifty percent number I had in mind was how much of a retrace from the entire move down that I need to get out without too much pain. I doubt its going to happen though so I need to accept it and dump this sucker fast. Just read that this was the largest single day move in that instrument ever. I was sure not alone getting caught on the wrong side.

          Check this link from Goldtent with a revealing chart.
          https://goldtadise.com/?p=397771

  19. Don

    The volume for GDXJ was a record today with GDX also being double the normal. This push is the real deal and unlikely to reverse. I am looking for several days of upside.

  20. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Thanks for commenting on “practice makes perfect” — I meant to reply to that Tuesday night, but got carried away by other events of the day.

    Actually, as Douglas points out, practice makes consistency, which is, as a practical matter, is perfection.

    I recommend the audio — without kindle accompaniment. Eyeball reading is tiresome. People get nostalgic about it for some reason.

    I eyeball-read Franklin’s Autobiography one time, in 1999. I had a text on my computer. I was in Spain at the time. I remember I liked it.

    A couple of years ago, I found the audio version, read by Adrian Cronauer, of the radio voice depicted by Robin Williams in “Good Morning Vietnam”. I had to slow down the audio 6%, but when I listen to the same book, I feel like Franklin is talking to me, directly. I close my eyes, and I’m in mid-18th century British North America, and my buddy, Ben Franklin, is telling me his life story. A few weeks later, I grab my mp3 player, and I say, “Ben! tell me your story again!” I lie down, press play, close my eyes & I’m back in that world once again. I didn’t quite feel that way when I eye-ball read the text one time in 1999.

    Likewise with “Trading in the Zone”. I slowed that one down 3%. I close my eyes, & good ol’ Mark is right there by my side, coaching me… I am starting from an extremely modest account size & he has already gotten me out of several nasty habits so far, while instilling the words “consistent” and “reward:risk ratio” into my mind. So I’m just busy trying to get my account to a functional size while simultaneously eradicating the nasty habits and cultivating the good ones.

    Remember his reference to “Cool Hand Luke”? I’m working on getting my mind right!

    (I love Paul Newman, btw… tears welling up in my eyes as I recall that extraordinary actor!)

  21. zkotpen

    Ped, Gary,

    Can’t we just join hands and sing

    WE WON’T GET FOOLED AGAIN!

    I believe our forecasts were correct over the weekend & on Monday. We let ourselves get fooled & missed a move.

    At the very least, we need to see how gold & miners behave at their respective 20 day SMAs before — how does the Cure sing it? — Jumping Someone Else’s Train…

    😉

    1. Pedestrian

      It happens. If its any consolation most people were caught off guard because there was an assumption bonds would not rally with a rate hike and thus gold would not do well. Today the 30 is reversing itself though (down) and the dollar is bouncing back from oversold. Yen threatens to take a turn lower as well since the Nikkei caught a bid and is rising. Stock market futures are green again and look recharged but that could be deceptive as we approach major chart resistance. It could be particularly painful if there is a market correction in the wings as those are usually bad times for mining stock. While miners look incredibly bullish right now I still have some reservations that the rounding top of GDX could yet fulfill its pattern by returning to the old lows. But I will happily admit I don’t know. And neither does anyone else so be very careful listening to the snake oil salesmen who have suddenly arrived and are trying to charm us with grandiose claims about their fabulous 500% wins with penny stocks. These guys are always present trying to lure the unwary by appealing to greed. If you thought 3X leveraged trades were account killers then just try the penny market for a week. Its shark infested pool of rats and thieves who will happily destroy your account by baiting you into buying the thing they have been unable to unload all year. So if this big mouth yahoo who has been pretending to be a novice (yet suddenly claims to be a 40 year veteran trader) gives us any hot tips, just run for the damned hills. You really have to ask yourself why he is even on this board where most of the people here are not experienced. But that’s the modus operandi of the penny world. They are always trying to recruit fresh fish. It is their bread and butter.

  22. Dday

    Easy to comment after the event. But gold sold off heavily before the rate hike and so far rallied just the same as the last two occasions. On a technical note the rsi’s are already almost oversold so proceed with caution.

    1. Dday

      Hi Goild, I try. It doesnt always work out but i set stop losses to avoid any big losses. Technicals and fundamental news, ie rate hikes etc…. I try and make money……

  23. Goild

    Dday,

    Thanks.
    Do you keep track of the number of wins/number of losing trades in your system?
    Do you set your stops to take a 1%, 3% loss per trade?

    1. Dday

      Well my account is growing so i guess I win more than i loose. I keep accounts, so yes its all documented. Different stops depending on the asset…..

  24. Dday

    Here is the gold daily with RSI(5). Notice how quickly it has risen, although the macd, stoch and tsi look very promising for a continued move up, albeit limited. The move is after sustained selling leading to the rate hike, so this looks more like a reactionary move to me, which i feel will be capped. But im staying open minded….Please add your interpretation

    https://invst.ly/3gikm

    1. Dday

      Just a further note on the chart. I would like to see the MACD cross and the Stoch K indicator to cross above 20. I would be more confident at that point. At the moment, its looks like a good set up but unconfirmed….

  25. Goild

    So we were waiting to have the FOMC behind to get into the market.
    Though things appear no easier now, perhaps they are more challenging.

    There are timse where entry points are kind of obvious but it seems that in todays trading there is no easy lunch.

    That remains me that yesterdays lunch was Chinese, The fortune cookie slip said:
    “You will have gold pieces by the bushel.”

      1. dboz

        I prefer an impulse move like this to reset sentiment and get attention. JNUG with that move and that volume sounded the attention bell to all sorts of day traders etc. It could be on if we get outside money flowing back in from other sources than those that play in this market. Individual miners were not showing the volume yet that big money is coming in. That is what drove the rise last year. We need to get big money coming in. So far we are just getting dabblers. I know the ETF’s did huge volume, but many miners were near or just above daily averages. I want to see volume pick up today. Then the chance of collapse is much lower IMO. If volume stays light, then yes, I think we could reverse. Of course it all depends on SPOT. If spot moves up, shorts will have to start covering. Monster short positions in AG, BTG, HL. When they cover, it will be serious rocket fuel.

  26. dboz

    I am just a dumb retail schmo, but in the video aren’t those last two charts GOLD and GDX looking to me to be on monster inverse head and shoulders patterns that are just turning up off the right shoulders?

  27. bill

    Lots of Short gonna get beaten down today, respectfully even our Host seems to be short according to the video…calling for a sell off today…Futs are up .36…

  28. zkotpen

    dboz,

    Thanks for the volume insights on the individual miners vis à vis the big index ETFs.

    If you’ve read my posts, you know I focus more on the latter — it’s nice to know some big picture type stuff on the individual miners.

    Cheers!

  29. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary,
    You say you do not short.
    Shorting cotton tomorrow or on Tuesday the latest (on the next daily swing high) may make a very, very profitable trade.
    After shorting BRL (long USDBRL), short cotton makes one of the safest trades on the Street – second to it being shorting BRL and third shorting USD index (or long gold/yen/eur).

  30. Don

    Pedestrian, there you go making shit up again. You just never quit spewing garbage. The only ‘tip” I have offered is to tell people not to be swayed by Pedestrian’s rubbish. I have not advised anyone to buy a specific stock., penny or otherwise. You tell one lie after another, force of habit?

  31. 1970confused

    VANBC…its comments like this that I can not stand on this board. GDX up over 7% and gdxj over 11% consolidating a bit this morning and you get this guys saying dumb stuff. What message is telling you gold is going down??????

  32. Ed

    Anyone knows a good investment option for rising interest rate environment?
    Right now I have DRV but it has daily trading volume of only 100,000.
    Beside TBT or SRS.

    1. Don

      Ped, just for you, I am going to give you the name of the only penny stock I have that has not gone up. It’s called Plato Gold and they have an office with a name plate and a shovel and pick axe. No earnings and no chance of ever making a dime. The symbol is PGC.V (Toronto Stock Exchange) and the ask is one cent. This stock is perfect just for you only and no one else. Please buy it. I have three hundred thousand shares and I really would like it ‘pumped’.

      1. rozelina17

        Don is it possible i get your list on my email ? [email protected]

        Thanks in any case! Have a nice day

  33. 1970confused

    You are one funny person Ped! What have you been pumping for month, all negative on gold and the miners always putting doubt in the mind of others?!

    1. Don

      If one must play leveraged, have a look at the leveraged silver funds that do not decay nearly as badly as those for the miners ( JNUG, NUGT) . Sliver can go up at a pretty good clip when it’s in a bull market, which I believe it to be.

    2. Don

      I wish PED was ‘funny’ but he is really very dangerous to the account of anyone that thinks long winded comments are a sign of someone that knows something. He says one thing, then does another and just generally flip flops his views faster than you can read his rubbish.

  34. Goild

    So this trading is like playing ping-pong.
    It is fast.
    The candle drops its body and sets a candle length.
    The next one drops and one gets at the bottom of the candle and sells when the candle pulls back.
    Key is to identify the channel and play the support and resistance as per bginvestor and Stary.
    Practice makes good.

  35. Dday

    Is GDX warning us again, gold up GDX down. Too early to tell but remember what happened last time their was a divergence. Only a possibility of course…..

    1. dboz

      I think this is just normal after a big run up. Consolidation with some profit taking and new longs getting into position on small dips. I know I bought some dips today already.

  36. Goild

    Soon will be lunch time and so the action is dying.
    I am done for the day pocketing $1595.
    Hopefully you guys are also pocketing good money.

    I do not know what is better, being like an ant pocketing every day bits.
    Or putting a good amount of shares in a swing trade.

    One needs to wait much more to get into a swing trade and risk is higher but it can be very profitable.
    And one is on automatic.

  37. Don

    Goild, I read your comment summarizing your wins and losses and didn’t know that you were actually down on your trading so I guess I have to withdraw my comment about you being a ‘genius’ day trader. I tried that game and quit when I realized my broker was falling in love with me.

  38. Goild

    The read I have is that the miners overdid the bounce and they are leveling.
    It is still not clear if gold will continue up.
    Sometimes after a big spike, there are three, four bad days to drop to the initial level.

    Now we are starting to be off season.

    Only two weeks left to reach $1300?

    Who knows.

  39. Goild

    In fact, if you compare XAU with GLD in a 2 year dual axis chart, one conclusion is that the miners overdid the bounce and will fall to meet gold. So in my view miners will drop to meet gold. Gold leads of course.

  40. 1970confused

    I seriously wonder about the people and there comments on this board. I am sure 90% of the people on this board are paid bashers to come on and put doubts in minds of others. Dday seriously, GDX was up over 7% yesterday. Do you just watch what is going on by the minute????? Like Gary mentioned yeasterday, today would be a profit taking day(consolidation day) ready for the next move up. As long as we do dont give back to much of yesterday’s gains we should be fine!

  41. dboz

    I am seeing all miners on the verge of breaking out today. Even the laggard AG should be giving the green light by the end of the day. JNUG looks to just be getting started. Of course it could all roll over and give a false signal, but I am back in 100%.

  42. dboz

    Biggest issue I see is that the GOLD/SILVER ratio is still favoring GOLD. We need a sub 69 level which puts SILVER leading the charge. Until then, I am not expecting a huge move.

    When I say miners are breaking out, I mean they are coming up out of oversold territory.

  43. Robert

    Looking like bears want to take down miners today. Gold still looks like it has room to drop but im gonna hang on and add more tomorrow if there is a big drop

  44. Don

    Jj: I think gold will hit $1300 and will go much higher but I have no clue as to when. I do believe it is in a bull market so being long will be the ticket to profit. Good luck.

  45. JJHarmen

    Thanks Don– I just picked up 1000 of that ZJG you mentioned but had to pay a little more at 9.02. It has a nice looking chart. Thanks again for your opinion.

  46. dboz

    Unless silver gets moving this is going to fizzle. Silver looks dead and shows no sign of a breakout. The move yesterday did not even trigger a move up yet on the MACD. Just now getting into position for a possible upturn but it looks like it could take a week or two, IF it even happens. Selling could start coming back quickly.

    1. Pedestrian

      Platinum 5 minute chart clearly rolling over and could see prices return to where they started yesterday. Silver also rolling over into a decline. Gold will likely follow if those two go South. There was precious little follow through today after yesterdays fabulous one-day ramp in miners and it now looks like much of it could be given back.

      Gold could easily see 1222 today.

  47. Alexandru Popovici

    Just closed long gold position opened yesterday post fomc.

    Searching for a short cotton position tomorrow and waiting for USD to initiate a new daily cycle before resuming my long gold trade.

  48. dboz

    I agree. Individual miner volume is putrid. No one has any FOMO. This morning started off strong and then we just ran out of buyers. No follow through at all. The people that bought the momentum yesterday could just as easily bail and dump clear back down to support of the base.

    It is impossible to make money in this sector. By the time things head south the losses mount too quickly as these things waterfall decline. It’s one step forward and two steps back. We could be heading down into a much worse situation very soon.

    I am going to hold today and see where things stand after that. We are barely even back to where things stood on Monday. So after the washout Tuesday, the whipsaw is just intense as no one trusts any move and the entire sector is shaky with ZERO direction.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yeah, I kind of agree with that Boss.

      I was prepared to take a bullish stance today but nothing good came of it so I am on the sidelines. Watching the Bollingers on a 5 day chart of JDST and they have tightened right up the last hour so the next move should be sharp. If gold falls again today then the move will be a breakout to the upside.

      Maybe in the last hour of the day as long-side buyers capitulate.

  49. Robert

    I am of the view that miners are consolidating here, digesting gains and shaking out late buyers. Now if it totally collapses tomorrow then thats a problem. I would buy any dip of GDX low 22s

    1. Pedestrian

      Gold signaling a sharp decline is dead ahead (as in today). Sorry for the bad news but that’s my read on it right now and I think silver won’t be far behind. Platinum below 955 would seal it. Feels like watching a kettle boil waiting though. Slow as molasses. But we are getting there bit by bit.

    1. Pedestrian

      Don’t be coy Don. You are the one with 40 years trading experience and suddenly an expert on penny stocks (which comes as a complete shock to everyone here since you never mentioned it until yesterdays one-day wonder moonshot.) And we loved hearing how you made 500% on your trades AFTER prices went up.

      So just tell Gary what to think. You are the pro.

  50. Don

    I agree Trader, I think GDX is recharging for a another push up although it may not break the day’s highs. The bears are getting sucked into going short gold silver and the miners thinking that they have come up to fast and that it is a bull trap.

          1. Pedestrian

            Not saying you are wrong either since anything is possible. There is always some doubt with chart patterns. To me it looks like a decline is coming but a surprise move up end of day seems about right to confuse everyone.

  51. Don

    I am far too heavily short the stock market but I am convinced that a big payday will be ultimately be my reward. Far too many analysts are talking about a “blow off top” yet to come and I ain’t buying into that narrative.

  52. zkotpen

    I have been watching gold’s & GDX’s behavior around their respective 20 day SMA’s all day, as stated. One thing I’ve kept a close eye on is how gold’s 20 day SMA has almost flat-lined, but never quite did — it is still pointing down, albeit slightly.

    My early take is, a slight gap up in GDX tomorrow, then reversal. Said gap up would not be enough to alter the short term volatility squeeze in GDX that Ped alludes to.

    I don’t think gold’s 20 day SMA is gonna turn up for the time being, probably a few weeks or more. GDX’s has been going down strongly for quite some time.

  53. zkotpen

    Ped,

    Glad to see you’re back where Gary, you, and I were over the weekend & into Mon/Tue.

    I continue to hold that during that time, with cool heads, we made the right forecast, each using different methodology. Then talked ourselves out of it at the last few hours. I know I’ve made that mistake in the past.

    How does that “Girl Afraid” song go?… “… I’ll never maaaaake THAT mistake again!”

    Will have a better fix on that after several more hours…

    1. Pedestrian

      I’m cross eyed from charts. Not sure which way is up at this point.

      The good news is JDST just spike up by almost four dollars right after the close to a high of 17.29. Wheeee! Glad I held it all day as agonizing as that was. I hate a losing trade more than poison though and was prepared to suffer through a week or two of drawdown if necessary to get out whole. Anyway, I expect that JDST spike will reverse that huge move shortly but it clearly warns that miners are indeed on their way back down to Earth tomorrow.

      Somebody just made a huge purchase of that trade and it wasn’t the Boy Scouts.

      So we (you, me and Gary) will most likely be vindicated in our initial assessment.

      And then I will get to write a special post to Don about how the bulls are going to get slammed like rag dolls on the pavement. He LOVED that poetic verse. Quoted me at least twice now so it must have been memorable!

      1. Pedestrian

        And now it disappeared from Yahoo. Weird. Same thing happened day before yesterday. It still shows on NASDAQ though if anyone is curious. The days high is 17.29 on a minor purchase of 2000 shares.

          1. Pedestrian

            Yes Bob, it came an hour later. This time it didn’t happen as far as I can tell. Unless it went through while I was sleeping and its since been erased. This is definitely some kind of anomalous event and I don’t have an explanation for it which is why I noted it for anyone else who might have some insight. In Tuesdays case though it did foretell that sharp rise in JNUG during the FOMC and the related nasty decline in JDST so I suspect someone with deep pockets had inside information. That’s speculation naturally since I cannot know from looking at a screen who or what was behind the trade. These both happened after hours and I thought it was an observation worth noting. But as usual the know-it-alls on this board mock rather than investigate. They don’t have answers either but I can tell you that Tuesdays 900,000 share purchase of JNUG that somebody out there made a lot of money in just a few short hours and managed to avoid a huge loss. They had been positioned on JDST and realized at the last minute it was a mistaken trade. Maybe a Hedgie….maybe a bank. Like I said, its not the Boy Scouts with 5 million to burn!

            Anyway, thanks for asking. If you can figure this out I would appreciate hearing back from you.

            Meanwhile, if we do see a big reversal today in JDST today then I suppose we can say that we had some early warning from a large trader with the firepower and foresight to be on the right side of the market. Two thousand shares makes no sense though. How can such a small number move price that much when a few days earlier it too almost a million shares to do the same thing? And can we even be sure the tape is not being “managed” after hours?

            I really have no idea. Only suspicions and doubts.

  54. Don

    That trade for 2000 shares at 17.29 (which will most likely be ‘busted’ by the end of the session) was immediately followed 3 seconds later by a trade at 13.39. You should know that such flukes occur and mean nothing. Get a grip man!

  55. mike trike

    “The good news is JDST just spike up by almost four dollars right after the close to a high of 17.29. Wheeee! Glad I held it all day as agonizing as that was. I hate a losing trade”

    Lol. This is from the resident “expert”. Go to stockwatch or some other site to confirm before posting nonsense.

    1. Pedestrian

      Mike, we had just such a spike two days ago on JNUG that presaged the sharp rise during the FOMC. That spike did not appear on any other trading platforms as attested by a number of people here including Gary. But one other poster did notice it and reported it was a trade for 900,00 shares that was recorded to NASDAQ.

      That spike remained part of the chart on Yahoo. You can still see it on the Tuesday chart even though it does not show on my own trading system. You can explain it away all you like but I am talking a fact here, not making up a story.

      No wonder you guys lose so much bloody money. You are all idiots.

      1. mike trike

        You didn’t sell your shares for $17.29. If you wanted to sell your shares right now you would get around $13.42. It might go to $17 tomorrow but right now they are $13.42 and if you had a sell order in for $17 all day today it wouldn’t have been sold, so the trade you are happy about is some stupid cross trade that means absolutely nothing.

        1. Pedestrian

          My trade has nothing to do with the fact that the posted high in after hours trading was 17.29 regardless of what the tape says now. The identical pattern happened prior to the FOMC and after a giant spike up in JNUG it was also erased within minutes. You seem to not be getting this so I am not going to waste more of my time on you.

          1. mike trike

            It wasn’t a spike it was a cross trade. Do you not know the difference?

            Do you know what JDST is?

            “JDST provides geared inverse exposure (-3x) to the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index ”

            Did you see a spike down in GDXJ after hours that corresponds to the spike up in JDST?

            Do you think you figured out a secret code that the Powers That Be use to hint at future market direction??

            Kitco “glitches” often foretold future PM prices so maybe you are on to something if that is what you mean.

            Is that what you mean?? If so say it clearly and in one or two sentences.

            “If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.”

  56. Robert

    I have a Strange​ feeling that miners are going to erase all gains from yesterday. Lots of individual miners have erased majority of gains. I hope I’m wrong because I bought today. Buying dips on gold miners since the February to has been stressful experience for me and very hard to make any money. U have to endure huge drawdowns jus to make a few bucks. Basically u have to catch exact bottoms to make anything in this gold market. I don’t know why I keep trying, I am jus drawn to gold. I lost more money trying to buy stocks than gold. I guess I am better off sticking to what I have more experience trading even though it’s stressful

  57. Bigdaddy

    I’ve been watching this board for a couple of days and it sure is lively. That Pedestrian guy needs to chill. No need to call people names. I have some gold investments and I think the gold bull has returned. I don’t really understand how the leveraged funds work. Don’t they just double or triple the movement of an unleveraged ETF?

  58. JJHarmen

    That ZJG is up a whole 3 cents already. What will I spend my profit on? Oops, wife will take it all. LOL! Don, I like your thinking. Care to recommend any other gold investments? If I give you my email, would you send me that list you were talking about earlier? I would like to dabble in the penny markets. Thanks in advance.

  59. Strike

    The hostile side banter emanating from all directions is detracting from what was/is/should be one of the very best sites. As tulip aptly says, we are turning to mush. Perhaps a tad of sarcastic wit would suffice, instead of a ton of hostility and chest pounding. If I want that I’ll watch the 1933 version of King Kong.

    I am not the moderator and have no control over participants. This is Gary’s house. But a semblance of civility would go a long way and would certainly be appreciated personally.

  60. Don

    Sorry JJharmen, I will not provide any ‘list’. They were a good gamble when they were a penny but not such a good idea at five or six cents. None of them have anything more than a land claim somewhere in the wilderness and no earnings. I only bought them because the CEO and/or the CFO were buying their stock in the open market. I really should sell them but if gold ever does soar, the speculators will drive up the pennies also. That’s how it works with junk penny stocks.

  61. Goild

    Well guys, we have too many brains here, too many years of cumulative trading experience, and yet I do not see the big bucks yet.

    At this point most of the people here must have higher than average intelligence. An intelligent team of people would do miracles in a company. Why should not all of us brainstorm and have a plan of action?

    I need to make big bucks. And more big bucks.

    1. ARends

      Goild that is putting a great plan of action!

      We all want to make money how ever we can cutain the risk in short and meduim term with risk management in different POV. We all here to make money and can respect each POV, ander other cant which we can ignore. We all look at it from a different angle and diverse experience pooled, can make a better play. However there is two mindsets daily and long term with in Bull and bear POV.

      Yes, I also feel at times confident but then it gets hammered by opinions and become counter-productive and do not enter like last move. If the objective of each POV is looked at as an added value, rather it could become more constructive. I have learnt a lot from others here which I appreciate.

      I must say it does seem lately moving more in that direction, and I thank those with years of experience sharing their trade even while we not all on the same page.

      We at a pivital point of gold. I have many gold miners in trade and trying to use % for ETF miners for short and meduim term and got mailed with the correction play size was the problem but a good run up with a good load is possibly each ones aim. Goild made it clear the trade size messes w your mind in the hold, after a huge drawdown. All of a sudden I just lost my nerve although for me there is enough to know we in a bull and convinced in al techinical I have seen. The meduim term noise is just killing me with this pivital point.

      The contrast here in getting in at the bottom and confirmation of the vove direction, where I have failed id intry and excit strategy with a system meduim longterm not using stops.

      I yesterday got a 1000 Jnug with Goild to build again on ETF as it seems that resistance is holding and possibly drawdown should be less in my view on a possible continuation if that was a bottom. Ew others wave trader see a little up and down before major move up. Is that draw down for lower prices going to come looking at Gary cycle and this being the bottom. Looking at the penant formed that must be moving up.

      Do load more? Know? I really looks today might beanother blow off!

  62. ARends

    Gary, Kzot, Pad, Goild here is a very interesting short video indicating medium and long term increase accumulation of COT as seen in past that indicate the bullishness forward. This is contrary to POV of other analyst, possibly for a reason.

    I think he has a good point. However would this not be the case of all markets with the accumulation of reserve funds, possibly in long run with QE, but meduim term seems relevant. What is your POV of the theory he supports?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwkcQzyK7gE&feature=push-u&attr_tag=2dIG974aPU_6fYK3-6

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