The yearly cycle low in oil is due this spring, probably in April or early May. Odds are high that oil will drop to below $42 a barrel.
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The yearly cycle low in oil is due this spring, probably in April or early May. Odds are high that oil will drop to below $42 a barrel.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker
Gold to roll over as a dead cat bounce of USX unfolds.
Running my short-cotton trade until buying gold back.
Gold to be enticing again to me in 2w time.
Totally agree. Usd has finished it dcl and should run for a bit as gold bottoms until at least end if the month. You will get a bounce in gold as usd rolls over. Alex when do you the ICL in gold ? I have gold going up for first 3 weeks in April and then heading into ICL in late April to May? Usd/Jyp is also finding its dcl.
Hey it is Alexandru the know-nothing. How did that stock market scorch work out? To the upside like I told you months back. Told you that you were full of hot air and know nothing about nothing. Only fools would listen to anything you have to say with your track record.
Leonardo DiCaprio: Critters 3
Denzel Washington: Heart Condition
Dustin Hoffman: Little Fockers
Just as the above show great actors in HORRIBLE movies/scripts – so too do I see Gary’s talents being wasted on the dead zone that is gold.
Glad to see he is branching out & applying his magic to oil, stocks etc.
Ready to Rock !
Thanks Gary
Steffmeister,
You forgot about that part just following my comments on the outlook for the longer term bear market:
“But who cares?”
As in, I’ve got an idea, an hypothesis, so let’s see how it plays out. If I get off course, just make course corrections along the way, as necessary, to get back on track.
I am very happy with the way I’ve got the fractals lining up in the intraday, daily, intermediate, yearly (primary), and even cycle degrees. I am definitely going out on my own limb. Not just “going out on a limb”, but on a limb all by myself in my supercycle outlook. And from the POV of a scientist in the lab: I’ve got an idea of how that supercycle fractal works out, but it’s gonna take time for it to unfold… so instead of being right or wrong, I’m excited to see how it turns out. Like I’m looking under my microscope — actually, in the macroscope (if you’re familiar with my photography, you know I love the super wide angle view) — saying, “I wonder if it’s gonna do this — or that?? I think it’s gonna do this…” Well, if it does “that” or something else, then keep tweaking.
Remember, I call it the Swedish venture. Sure, I wanna make some money — pay the bills, and also to fund research & artistic projects along the way. But the real motivation is that of a scientist trying to bring human understanding to social phenomena. If you’ve read some of my comments — ideally, I want to track the gold market all the way back to 4004 B.C. — more or less the invention of currency. And for these longer cycles — well, I’m gonna get to Sweden, even if it’s posthumously. Doesn’t really matter one way or the other whether I’m here to see it or not. Many or most of the Swedish prizes get awarded for empirical work. Does that really help our understanding of phenomena, in a way that people can use?
Of course, in order to get to that place, I need to be absolutely free of bias, and also free of the fear of failure.
How did Beckett say it?
“Ever tried, ever failed, no bother. Try again, fail again. Fail better.”
Just keep observing, and honing, and tweaking, and observing, and tweaking, and so on.
Dave, I expect gold to put its ICL in 2w time (i.e. on week 16) as USD tops on BRXIT triggering by Theresa May (GBPUSD on day 6 now seems to be close to charting its DCH before rolling over to a final bottom).
EURUSD is now on day 13, so that a top (DCH) tomorrow would bring it to day 14 – ripe for a decline, hence bullish case for USX.
Britain’s claiming of Article 50 would also be a short-lived bearish case for EUR too.
As to JPY…I do not know, it might be the only to rise, so that USDJPY to continue rolling over on risk aversion (alongside treasuries). I am not sure at all as to JPY…
I expect that GBP’s fall on Art50-triggering to be a fantastic buying opportunity of the quid.
Anyway, COT reports should show massive buying by commercials through the next 2w as small specs will add to their shorts.
Alexandru why do you continue to advise people here? You are a know nothing. You said the stock market would tank months ago and all it did was go up every day for months since you made your call.
You are a know-nothing.
Good morning,
I missed an easy money trade as after the Asia drop, gold lately often recovers early in the morning as it just did.
The Euro is increasing. The USD weaker, already at 99.63. Though the miners are lazy.
It is incredible the very stiff fees the 3X leverage funds charge. JNUG has been beaten considerably.
Good trading to all.
Can someone explain why after the rate hike, the 0.25 is not reflected in the UST 10Y yield?
Brian, yes, you are right! I am a know-nothing.
Hope you are satisfied now.
Alexandru do you recall how every day you would come on here and tell everyone about the coming SM scorch and the SM went up every day for months since your prediction? You are clueless.
The dynamics of gold, miners, USD, are somehow different now.
Need to find the new correlations.
Any idea why the miners were beaten down?
One take is that they just equalized, they were too pricy.
They certainly aren’t too pricey. The gold:XAU ratio was 13.
The historical norm has been between 4-6. If anything the miners are insanely cheap compared to the price of gold.
How does gold:XAU relate to miners? Might be a stupid question?
Arends, You may already know this but XAU is an index that cannot be bought . It track 30 gold and silver minersan is great for chart work.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Gold_and_Silver_Index
So I guess gold has finished its ICL? New highs coming.
Gary, you think maybe the S+P is starting down into its ICL sooner than you thought it would?
What to expect on gold?
It seems gold will reestablish its channel before the peak on 2/27th.
So it may wander about $1240 and if so then the play is at support and resistance.
Where has Pedestrian been lately? I have enjoyed reading his comments.
Just funny how jnug is so reluctent?
Gold has just pushed $10?
COTTON, sweet cotton:
– in confirmed IC decline (just failed DC)
– extreme left-translation in the current DC –> it topped very early on day 2
– late both in its YC and IC
– follow-through of its weekly swing high
– still many days available in the current DC for it to simply do what is best for my short: to fall 🙂
Pedestrian got it all wrong about gold. Glad I didn’t listen to him. He seems to have disappeared. I say good riddance.
I second that!
Hey, Don, you still holding that LABD? I tagged along your call and it’s up 9% today! Should I take profits? Do you think today’s drop in the stock market is the start of that big drop you have been expecting?
Today, I am smiling from ear to ear , LABD, up 12%, Stock market down 1% and gold and silver up nicely. But all too often, the smile gets wiped off my face late in the day so here’s hoping to getting it right,
Anyone to comment on today’s markets.
Here is my call clear and concise. I am buying the next pullback into RSI(5) oversold territory because I think GDX will subsequently approach the August high.
I think we dip first from current overbought territory.
Gary, why is this site locked down?
The Stock Market had a big dump today. Were you long or short going into this move?
My Price Channel work had me short…
https://goldtadise.com/?p=398260
Could the dow fall back to test 16500? if dow falls, could the miners rally?
big daddy : I sold my LABD near the close. However, I do believe that there is much more downside yet coming for the stock market and I am heavily short already and the LABD was just bought for a quick profit. It might pay off very well if you want to hold it longer but just keep in mind that profits can disappear on triple leveraged ETFs faster than you can go to for a pee ! Good luck.
Don,
Glad to hear you got +12% with LABD.
I got rid of the PLAT as today did not have any luster.
SM and GOLD are now taking the path of least resistance,
The miners are walking slow the uphill as they have to carry gold which weights a lot.
Or the miners manipulation has been deep. JNUG and NUGT should be nibbling by now $12.
The Trump effect is evaporating very rapidly and with it the SM is going down with no support in sight.
On Thursday we may have a SM fall of 2%-3% just to set the tone.
I am not selling my Platinum. Lots of upside potential for that one, even if the SM crashes.
I got out of nearly all the miners today (except for penny stocks) and sold all of my triple leveraged USLV but kept a fair bit of the unleveraged precious metal ETFs. I am concerned that if the stock market continues to decline (2250 is my first target), any kind of weakness in the metals will cause a sell off in the miners. I feel less exposed in the metal ETFs which will probably not sell off as hard as the miners. That said, if gold and silver continue to rise, being unleveraged will still be a winner.