37 thoughts on “OIL CYCLE

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    Gold to roll over as a dead cat bounce of USX unfolds.

    Running my short-cotton trade until buying gold back.

      1. daverobson

        Totally agree. Usd has finished it dcl and should run for a bit as gold bottoms until at least end if the month. You will get a bounce in gold as usd rolls over. Alex when do you the ICL in gold ? I have gold going up for first 3 weeks in April and then heading into ICL in late April to May? Usd/Jyp is also finding its dcl.

      2. brianbreeze

        Hey it is Alexandru the know-nothing. How did that stock market scorch work out? To the upside like I told you months back. Told you that you were full of hot air and know nothing about nothing. Only fools would listen to anything you have to say with your track record.

  2. Americano

    Leonardo DiCaprio: Critters 3
    Denzel Washington: Heart Condition
    Dustin Hoffman: Little Fockers

    Just as the above show great actors in HORRIBLE movies/scripts – so too do I see Gary’s talents being wasted on the dead zone that is gold.
    Glad to see he is branching out & applying his magic to oil, stocks etc.
    Ready to Rock !
    Thanks Gary

  3. zkotpen


    You forgot about that part just following my comments on the outlook for the longer term bear market:

    “But who cares?”

    As in, I’ve got an idea, an hypothesis, so let’s see how it plays out. If I get off course, just make course corrections along the way, as necessary, to get back on track.

    I am very happy with the way I’ve got the fractals lining up in the intraday, daily, intermediate, yearly (primary), and even cycle degrees. I am definitely going out on my own limb. Not just “going out on a limb”, but on a limb all by myself in my supercycle outlook. And from the POV of a scientist in the lab: I’ve got an idea of how that supercycle fractal works out, but it’s gonna take time for it to unfold… so instead of being right or wrong, I’m excited to see how it turns out. Like I’m looking under my microscope — actually, in the macroscope (if you’re familiar with my photography, you know I love the super wide angle view) — saying, “I wonder if it’s gonna do this — or that?? I think it’s gonna do this…” Well, if it does “that” or something else, then keep tweaking.

    Remember, I call it the Swedish venture. Sure, I wanna make some money — pay the bills, and also to fund research & artistic projects along the way. But the real motivation is that of a scientist trying to bring human understanding to social phenomena. If you’ve read some of my comments — ideally, I want to track the gold market all the way back to 4004 B.C. — more or less the invention of currency. And for these longer cycles — well, I’m gonna get to Sweden, even if it’s posthumously. Doesn’t really matter one way or the other whether I’m here to see it or not. Many or most of the Swedish prizes get awarded for empirical work. Does that really help our understanding of phenomena, in a way that people can use?

    Of course, in order to get to that place, I need to be absolutely free of bias, and also free of the fear of failure.

    How did Beckett say it?

    “Ever tried, ever failed, no bother. Try again, fail again. Fail better.”

    Just keep observing, and honing, and tweaking, and observing, and tweaking, and so on.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    Dave, I expect gold to put its ICL in 2w time (i.e. on week 16) as USD tops on BRXIT triggering by Theresa May (GBPUSD on day 6 now seems to be close to charting its DCH before rolling over to a final bottom).

    EURUSD is now on day 13, so that a top (DCH) tomorrow would bring it to day 14 – ripe for a decline, hence bullish case for USX.
    Britain’s claiming of Article 50 would also be a short-lived bearish case for EUR too.

    As to JPY…I do not know, it might be the only to rise, so that USDJPY to continue rolling over on risk aversion (alongside treasuries). I am not sure at all as to JPY…

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      I expect that GBP’s fall on Art50-triggering to be a fantastic buying opportunity of the quid.
      Anyway, COT reports should show massive buying by commercials through the next 2w as small specs will add to their shorts.

    2. brianbreeze

      Alexandru why do you continue to advise people here? You are a know nothing. You said the stock market would tank months ago and all it did was go up every day for months since you made your call.
      You are a know-nothing.

  5. Goild

    Good morning,

    I missed an easy money trade as after the Asia drop, gold lately often recovers early in the morning as it just did.
    The Euro is increasing. The USD weaker, already at 99.63. Though the miners are lazy.
    It is incredible the very stiff fees the 3X leverage funds charge. JNUG has been beaten considerably.
    Good trading to all.

    Can someone explain why after the rate hike, the 0.25 is not reflected in the UST 10Y yield?

    1. brianbreeze

      Alexandru do you recall how every day you would come on here and tell everyone about the coming SM scorch and the SM went up every day for months since your prediction? You are clueless.

  6. Goild

    The dynamics of gold, miners, USD, are somehow different now.
    Need to find the new correlations.

  7. Goild

    Any idea why the miners were beaten down?
    One take is that they just equalized, they were too pricy.

    1. Gary Post author

      They certainly aren’t too pricey. The gold:XAU ratio was 13.

      The historical norm has been between 4-6. If anything the miners are insanely cheap compared to the price of gold.

      1. brianbreeze

        Gary, you think maybe the S+P is starting down into its ICL sooner than you thought it would?

  8. Goild

    What to expect on gold?

    It seems gold will reestablish its channel before the peak on 2/27th.
    So it may wander about $1240 and if so then the play is at support and resistance.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    COTTON, sweet cotton:
    – in confirmed IC decline (just failed DC)
    – extreme left-translation in the current DC –> it topped very early on day 2
    – late both in its YC and IC
    – follow-through of its weekly swing high
    – still many days available in the current DC for it to simply do what is best for my short: to fall 🙂

  10. JJHarmen

    Pedestrian got it all wrong about gold. Glad I didn’t listen to him. He seems to have disappeared. I say good riddance.

  11. Bigdaddy

    Hey, Don, you still holding that LABD? I tagged along your call and it’s up 9% today! Should I take profits? Do you think today’s drop in the stock market is the start of that big drop you have been expecting?

  12. Don

    Today, I am smiling from ear to ear , LABD, up 12%, Stock market down 1% and gold and silver up nicely. But all too often, the smile gets wiped off my face late in the day so here’s hoping to getting it right,

  13. Strike

    Here is my call clear and concise. I am buying the next pullback into RSI(5) oversold territory because I think GDX will subsequently approach the August high.
    I think we dip first from current overbought territory.

  14. Don

    big daddy : I sold my LABD near the close. However, I do believe that there is much more downside yet coming for the stock market and I am heavily short already and the LABD was just bought for a quick profit. It might pay off very well if you want to hold it longer but just keep in mind that profits can disappear on triple leveraged ETFs faster than you can go to for a pee ! Good luck.

  15. Goild


    Glad to hear you got +12% with LABD.
    I got rid of the PLAT as today did not have any luster.

    SM and GOLD are now taking the path of least resistance,
    The miners are walking slow the uphill as they have to carry gold which weights a lot.

    Or the miners manipulation has been deep. JNUG and NUGT should be nibbling by now $12.

    The Trump effect is evaporating very rapidly and with it the SM is going down with no support in sight.
    On Thursday we may have a SM fall of 2%-3% just to set the tone.

  16. Don

    I got out of nearly all the miners today (except for penny stocks) and sold all of my triple leveraged USLV but kept a fair bit of the unleveraged precious metal ETFs. I am concerned that if the stock market continues to decline (2250 is my first target), any kind of weakness in the metals will cause a sell off in the miners. I feel less exposed in the metal ETFs which will probably not sell off as hard as the miners. That said, if gold and silver continue to rise, being unleveraged will still be a winner.

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