78 thoughts on “TWO BUBBLES AHEAD

    1. Gary Post author

      I exited well ahead of the top (a little too early in fact about 1650). It was clear that the character was changing and gold was moving into a C-wave top.

      1. brianbreeze

        Gary, you said the other day you see the s+p topping out around 2150s so it has little upside yet in this video you are saying there is at least another year in the stock bull market? Which one is it?

  1. downtrodden

    Gary, when you talk about the investing in the stock market could you give an example of what you would suggest buying in order to make money in the bubble phase. Thanks

  2. zkotpen

    Ped,

    “Looks like gold will make a run for the fences today.
    The rise always comes before the fall. Don’t forget that.”

    I think that’s the conclusion of your posts — I’m tending to agree as the day progresses: Some more consolidation — you mentioned something to that effect yesterday, but I’m still seeing consolidation for a little while. Then pop — that 1236 for the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of gold’s move down, then a reversal to resume the intermediate decline into the close and further on next week.

    I think you’re saying the same thing. Well, anyway, that’s my take just before the mkt opens…

    1. Gary Post author

      Not sure what this nut is all about. He’s been making these insane predictions for years now. Maybe he sells subscriptions to goofy gold bugs this way.

      It’s not going to happen though. It’s going to take at least a couple of years before gold can retest those all time highs again. Like I said, the middle part of a bull market is very tough to make money. Lots of back and forth and lots of scary corrections.

          1. Gary Post author

            Martin Armstrong was calling for $5000 gold by 2015. Maybe you have me mistaken for him.

          2. Gary Post author

            2014 was way too early. Back in 2011 no one that I know of was anticipating the banks would create a bear market in gold.

            Of course we now have proof the DB was manipulating the metals market along with multiple other big banks.

            Maybe they can stop gold from ever having a bubble phase. Personally I doubt it. I believe ultimately we will see $7000 or higher.

  3. Gary Post author

    The juniors are getting hit today. Almost erased half of Wednesday’s candle. This is what I didn’t want to see as it puts the odds in favor of a left translated daily cycle and a further drop into an ICL.

    The metals have become too difficult for me to trade at this point. I prefer to wait on the sidelines until we get another sentiment extreme like we had in Dec.

    1. mike trike

      Actually nobody is watching that page. Guys at Goldtent used to always have to correct Krystar on his sloppy analysis/TA/chartology, and now he has a pay site. lol

  4. Ed

    I am betting all my money on the SM going down hard.
    BREXIT actually happens end of this month
    Trump is being bog down. Not a single economic policies getting through anytime soon.
    FED EU BOE BOJ trending to tightening mode.
    It takes another financial crisis to restart another QE.
    Interest rate may go down or up , but that won’t help if all sectors of industries go down.
    Leverage concentrated Small Cap, Real Estate, Financials will be hit VERY HARD regardless if interest rate or strength or weakness of Dollars.
    We are trained like lapdogs to follow USDJPY, GDX, 10Yr Yields. But in the end, these index and charts won’t matter. All leverage induced bubbles must pop. Unlike some say we still have the final phase of the Bubbles. I am saying we had our bubbles. Now we are behind them.
    I lost tons of money following stupid talking heads, but not this time.
    You mark my words. We are going to have a significant market crash before April 2017 ends

  5. victor

    to terrywg
    I’m not advocating Garry but you seems like determined to pin him down again and again. Did you never been wrong? Why to bring up 5yr old staff? Compare yours 5yr olf market view and now. You just jealous or had significant loses and biting everyone for that. Be good and good things come to you.

      1. dboz

        Terry, why do you come on here just to stir shit up? I assume you have never made a wrong call or trade? Do YOU own a crystal ball? If so, tell us where things are going. If you want to post your opinions on trades or what ever, go ahead. You only post garbage to rile everyone up that contributes nothing but insults and cockiness by demeaning others.

        You were leaving from here months ago. You are just obnoxious and condescending to everyone but your buddy PED. You love to repost and quote people when someone gets it wrong. Do you take delight in others misery and mistakes? Does it make you feel superior over others?

        I assume you must be a perfect trader and never have any bad trades? Why do you come here instead of pandering to your currency base?

        If you are a professional why don’t you act like it. If you are into currency trades, why do you frequent a gold bug site? Just to poke and prod people the wrong way?

        If you want to post, why don’t you post something of use to us all, instead of dredging up mud from 6 years ago about a bad market call. What does that accomplish?

        In other words your function here is cyber bully.

        1. terrywg

          the only reason I still post here is that I have a small sliver of empathy left.

          I call things as I see it. If Gary is inconsistent or disingenuous I will call him out on it. He acts as a modern day financial adviser, but without any regulatory framework to censure his advice. So you see, dboz, what I’m doing is providing you a free public service. Find me one comment which was bullying in nature. What I state are FACTS. I merely repeat what many of you here mention time and again. If you are allergic to the truth then I suggest you stop trading immediately.

          My function here is not to laugh at your misery, but to provide a counterpoint when many of you lose yourselves in your overzealous optimism. Admittedly, some of those on this board make it too easy to have a laugh at your expense. Forgive me, I am human after all. But my words are only words, you can brush them off easily. Gary’s words make an actual impact and affect real portfolios.

          So dboz, until you can say that you’ve done something of use lately, then I will continue to do as I damn well please.

        2. terrywg

          btw, I kept these comments for a moment such as this one. As you can tell, I am a very methodical man, and it has served me well in my career, especially when I have to deal with idiots on a daily basis. You seem to have been telling everyone here to buy miners… well congratulations, you gave advice to buy right smack at the 5 month top. I hope to god that no-one followed your advice. To illustrate, if I had listened to you and bought JNUG for example, my position would be down by almost 50percent:

          dboz
          February 8, 2017 at 1:46 pm
          By the time you get the dip at 1310, you may as well just by now. It will still be lower to buy now than at the dip.

          dboz
          February 9, 2017 at 4:18 am
          Premarket dips are occurring daily. Just a tease for those looking for entry. Bounce right back strongly. I think we are going to run longer here than most expect. It will pull back but by then the pullback will be higher than buying here. Easy to see why most never make a dime in a bull market. As Gary said you get a big day of gains then the chop. Pullbacks are shallow and quick as buyers rush in on any dip. The dollar continues to struggle at higher price. Rallies get sold quickly as the dollar unwinds.

          dboz
          February 9, 2017 at 7:56 am
          This move is why I don’t use stops. Trump talks about a phenomenal tax plan coming and everything moves quickly on the news. It will probably settle back in soon. Would get stopped out then the stuff bounces right back as you sit out missing the rebound.

          1. Gary Post author

            Terry if you want to post my losing trades that’s fine. But I have to insist you also post my winning trades.

            Sounds fair enough.

  6. Americano

    Trying to pick miners these past few months with using gold as a guide is beyond frustrating.
    You’d have better success picking out where the next zit will show up on a teenager.
    Bitcoin looks like a stodgy T-Bill bet in comparison.
    I am stoked for Gary to set his timing on NASDAQ.
    Let’s dump & go !
    TQQQ

  7. Goild

    Terrywg,

    I think you are a talented trader.
    However, why attacking a person?
    It would be awesome to turn around and truly contribute to this site.
    You will benefit instead.

  8. eurodisney

    Bit harsh on terrywg, the point of forums is different points of views. I think Terry has made some very valid points in previous posts. And his take on currencies has been spot on. We need traders like him to post to help us think and not just blindly follow, cause when you do and the trades lose money, Gary gets a lot of grief directed towards him.

    As far as I’m concerned Gary is old and ugly enough to be able to deal with critics . I enjoy Ped, Robert, Don and terrywg posts.

  9. Don

    I am not buying anymore miners right now. I am somewhat concerned that a stock market correction could drag down the miners with it. I feel safer buying the metals and did pick up some additional platinum this morning. But, I can’t tell you what to do and I see ZJG is a bit cheaper now so if you are a buy and hold trader, buying now will almost certainly be profitable down the road, It is not a leveraged ETF so there shouldn’t be much decay to worry about. (Sorry for the delayed response but I was making lunch). Good luck .

  10. Don

    Many of the stock market major components such as Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple, and Boeing, are miles above their 200 day moving averages, with some 20% above. I can’t see how this market can just keep rising without when the FED is tightening rather than providing stimulus. Of course, there is that saying about how the market can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent (something like that).

  11. Goild

    The drop of the miners today is because they got ahead of gold. They are equalizing.
    I will stand for a bull on PM and plan keep my 10K shares of JNUG for a good while.
    Also the 1K PLAT shares.
    The downside is shallow but the upside can be awesome.
    There is nothing to do but have a leap of faith.
    And set a stop.

  12. dboz

    GOILD, I agree, I ran without stops today as I got burnt on them last Tuesday. However, I think I am going to choose a percentage and just set them in case we cascade down again. That drop a few weeks ago on Thursday cost me big money for one day.

  13. dboz

    Gold Silver Ratio is starting to improve. If silver can catch a bid and move up it could trigger a great outcome. Scared but remaining optimistically bullish. BUT, I need to start seeing some consistent pay days. This daily yo-yo is fatiguing.

  14. dboz

    I think I need to consider going short here, I feel like a Trout heading upstream. There is no money to be made. The miners are for day traders only. Go up one day, give it all up the next. Go up the next day, give it all back the next. They are not for investors. There is no reason for them to be this volatile as spot price is sitting steady and firm.

    JNUG up 35% on Wednesday, down 18% the last 2 days. This whipsaw action is beyond belief.

        1. tulip

          Oh, yes, I do pedestrian..and Gary knows it.
          Gary is a nice man.
          And generous. This site sinks into ego driven opinions and plain slop.
          I have complimented Gary a good deal and ditto for others inc recently Strike.
          I even complimented you as you well know – on yr writing.
          I find your arrogance tedious, repetitive and, you as lost as anyone here inc myself.
          Surfside is interesting and seemingly competent but he’s departed.
          Don & Strike aren’t arrogant and contribute.
          You give away your character at times ped…..& I don’t think the guys here see it for what it is. You’re trolling Gary and its transparent. You r a pose. Its cracking.

  15. KHT

    Closed out my 1k JDST trade from Wed. in 13.3914 out 14.88. i do think I`m leaving some money on the table but there will be plenty of time to get back in, up/down or both. Still thinking the miners are headed for the Dec lows.

  16. brianbreeze

    Ed, absolutely idiotic to claim a crash is coming in april or before. Why would anyone make such idiotic statements? You have no idea when or if any crash is coming.

  17. Robert

    Today GDXJ took out a good portion of FOMC gains. Gold having problems at 1230 level. Im not sure anymore very difficult to trade. Sold JNUG today for loss. Now im thinking of going bearish

    1. Pedestrian

      Sorry to hear that Robert.

      If you are wondering, my JDST trade came within a dime of breakeven today but I decided not to sell. Looks like it will make money on it after all so I am holding until next week. Whew! That was a close call. I didn’t think I would get my head out of that noose but the damned thing came roaring back to life.

      I’m back underwater right now by 75 cents a share but pretty sure I will be made whole again next week. Remind me next time to take my own advice though. On the date of the FOMC I broke one of my own rules which is to never trade on FOMC day!

      So it serves me right since the rules were written for good reasons.

      1. Robert

        Good to hear. I’m now believing the left translated cycle more than ever. Gdxj should not have give back so much of it’s gains if this rally is to continue to test the Feb highs. It’s fragile and to me it suggests that the FOMC rally was mainly fueled by short covering not real buyers. So any sort of bad news for gold and miners will prbly lose everything. Look on Me and some other miners have alrdy given back everything. This tells me that maybe gdx will follow later. Sidelines is best now or hold onto jdst. It might take awhile but jdst might recoup back alot of it’s decline

        1. Pedestrian

          With luck Robert. I might be holding all next week though as a bounce back is probably in store for mining stock. But that’s just how the game works. You could be right about the FOMC action of btw, although I have not looked into it. But I would agree that if markets sell off its going to hurt mining stock. Especially given they are still elevated since the December 2016 lows. I might be nuts but I am convinced they are going all the way back to the bottom yet.

        2. Pedestrian

          Hey Robert, we are just 130 points away from one of my D-Day market top indicators. That’s the Eurostoxx chart of course. Have a look. When it hits 3500 (plus or minus) we get the long awaited market correction in the US.
          http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=w1

          My other indicator is also pretty close to its D-Day top at 20,000
          And that one is the Nikkei of course which I have endlessly blathered about on this site. I can’t say why exactly but I think this is the tell. Both indices will top very close to one another in time. And then its down we go (unless prices blow right through in which case I will become the laughing stock of this board. LOL!!!)
          http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=w1

          I figure both of them top together right at March end meaning we are going to have an unpleasant month coming. April Fools is the perfect date but since that lands on a Saturday I will have to defer my market correction call until April 3rd.

          1. Robert

            Interesting. Yes the markets should to soon. I bought dust after hours. Gdx looks like it may bounce early next week but I am tired of switching back and forth. Staying bearish now on miners as I said they look like eventually they will go back to the lows gdx 21 or lower. If I lose again on this trade I am done trading gold for the rest of the year

          2. Pedestrian

            You probably made the right choice. Actually your bet on JDST was the right one too in the end. I think I felt really soured on it after it crashed though and worried it was heading to 10 as the chart seemed to suggest. And I was worried for your sake that you might have followed me into that quagmire.

            I am back to being a gold bear next week though and here is one of the reasons.

            Take a look at this Yen chart and notice that its a rolling top since last December when it bottomed along with gold (only focus on the last three months of the chart). If you follow this one using the RSI you can see it has once again topped and is about to drop. And gold should cooperate and drop with it as usual.
            http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=d1

            Actually its obvious visually without the benefit of any indicators as it rises and falls along its rolling curved top. Its a small pattern cycle going up and down and it crudely matches what is happening on the Nikkei except in reverse.

            Whats important is that the Nikkei (which I posted above) is coiling like a spring for a sharp move up. I think it could all be over in the next week or two and gold could have a pretty rough time of it when that happens.

            Check the Nikkei again and compare the two to get a feel for what I watch daily to gauge gold movements. Can you see the energy building up on the Japanese equity indices? It’s a good thing and a bad thing though depending on what you own.

            But when I heard Gartman was going long Japanese equities a few days ago I just knew the fix was in. So naturally I want to be short Japan and short gold. I’m giving this two weeks tops to play out. We shall see.

  18. Don

    I am encouraged to see the stock market (S&P and QQQ) fail to make new highs today and then to sell down during the last 40 minutes of trading. Being short has been thus far been an unrewarding experience. That said, collapses, when they occur, can dramatically wipe out several months of advances in a few weeks, or less.

    1. Don

      All I can tel you that I am long silver, gold and platinum metals, mostly unleveraged except for some USLV. I have 1000 shares of a Canadian ETF that holds junior gold stocks and it is that position that I am least comfortable with just because of the extreme elevation of the stock market. I also have a half dozen penny stocks that I have held for a few years (hoping for a big payoff, someday) but have not bought any pennies for quite some time. So, if you are ‘wrong’ with your SLV, for the longer term, then I am going down with you.

  19. Gary Post author

    Terry,
    If you want to post my losing trades that’s fine. But I have to insist you also post my winning trades.

    You can’t just cherry pick every losing trade.

    Over the last two years the stock portfolio is up 73% and the metal portfolio is up 130%.

    Yes I have losing trades just like every other trader in the world. But I also have winning trades, also like every other trader in the world. Based on the cumulative total I think anyone would say we are doing pretty good.

    So if you want to point out the bad I insist you also take note of the winners.

  20. Pedestrian

    Anyone recall this chart I posted about 10 days back?
    https://www.kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/gold-bulls-dont-want-a-breakout-here-mar-7.jpg

    It is the gold/silver ratio chart and it is kindly predictive of where miners are heading. The chart, produced by KimbleChartingSolutions has done exactly what every gold buyer does not want it to do by bouncing off the support line as the G/S ratio begins to rise once again.

    And given the terrible outlook for silver in the next few months I would say its an odds on bet that the ratio will keep climbing as the price of silver falls faster than the price of gold. To my way of looking at things this is about as damning as any evidence available and so I am posting it again now that the G/S ratio bounce off support has happened.

    If you examine this chart carefully btw you can see it was an excellent tool to use in identifying the bubble top in precious metals back in 2011 as the crashing ratio signaled the bull market was finally dead. And this chart is still very useful when used as shown since the channel lines established make the bear case very easy to understand.

    So go ahead and get long metals and miners if you must. But be warned the next few months could be rocky ones. If anyone here can present a bullish case for metals I would like to hear it. I mean, besides prayers to Jesus and the Angels!

  21. ARends

    Ped, I must say one of the last gave me peace about bull meduim term and longterm, here is a very interesting short video indicating medium and long term increase accumulation of COT and the accelerated increase in value, as seen in past that indicate the bullishness forward in this bull from 2008 indicate same going into bull.

    I think he has a good point.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwkcQzyK7gE&feature=push-u&attr_tag=2dIG974aPU_6fYK3-6

  22. ARends

    Ped

    The most interesting is the rise of Gold with debt chart. Very interesting article with a few graphs. That chart you posted does not really convince me of bear outlook. That break in your interesting chart out of the channel to me looking at the candles could be down but Another article with a lot of info of gold and the last 300 year chart with inflation and path Gold has not just as a commodity and path.

    http://news.gold-eagle.com/article/ides-march-%E2%80%93-gold-14463-and-silver-669/538

    Last year, George Soros dumped 37% of his U.S. stocks and put $475 million into Barrick Gold, one of the largest miners in the world. He then sold that stake and went straight to the source, buying 240,000 shares of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF.

    His motivation might surprise you.

    It’s China.

    Soros believes that China’s economy is poised to crash after years of sky-high growth.

    He has a strong case, too, one that I’ve discussed at length in the past.

    See, the problem with China’s growth is that much of it is debt-based. The government basically gives money to banks and encourages them to dole out loans even to unworthy borrowers. This rapid extension of credit has created a huge debt bubble.

    At 277% of GDP, China has the highest level of corporate debt in the world. And its national debt load stands at roughly $23 trillion — five times what it was a decade ago, and more than two and a half times the size of the country’s entire economy.

    This has Soros fearing a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.

    “There is an eerie resemblance to what’s happening in China to what’s happened here leading up to the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and it is similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said. “It’s eventually unsustainable. But it feeds on itself and it has a lot to do with real estate,” he said.

    The bond market is $60 trillion. Right now, nearly $10 trillion in fixed income is negative yielding, according to Singer. He added that these prices and yields contain a “tremendous, never-before seen asymmetry between potential further reward and risk.”

    Singer is among a number of hedge fund managers who have become increasingly vocal against central bank policy. He said that central banks have created a “tremendous increase in hidden risk” and “unusual dangers that are unique in the ‘5,000 years-ish’ history of finance.”

    For that reason, gold is “underrepresented in many portfolios as the only money and store of value that has stood the test of time.”

    “It makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree,” Singer wrote in an April 28 letter to clients. “Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the world’s central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies.”

    So there you have it.

    China, so long the world’s growth engine, has become a debt crisis waiting to happen. Central banks in Europe have deployed negative interest rates that rapidly erode value. And in the United States wealth has been borrowed from future economic growth to feed bubbles in stocks and real estate.

    That’s why billionaires are rapidly rushing into their old standby, gold.

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