53 thoughts on “BE CAREFUL THIS ISN’T DONE YET – GLD

    1. Christian

      No offence MegaMind but your analysis is a bit off. You guys went LONG Miners just before they dropped off the face of the earth ๐Ÿ™‚

  1. Christian

    An inverse H&S is currently taking shape on GDXJ’s Day chart — a bounce is imminent! Which one of you is brave enough to pull the trigger on this day trade? Mouhahahaaaaa.

    1. Dday

      Can you post a chart, i had a look cant see what you are referring to What time frame 15 min, 4 h, daily?

  2. Robert

    Miners bottom ahead of gold usually so its gold we should worry about not miners so much. The junior miners are starting to hold up better than the seniors now. So there might be a slight divergence developing

  3. JJHarmen

    Pedestrian, thanks for your input. Although I am itching to short the stock market, I think I will hold off at least until after the FOMC meeting.

  4. Don

    It is almost a foregone conclusion that it is not ‘if’ the US attacks North Korea, but ‘when’. Given that both Russia and China are showing a willingness to get involved by amassing troups on the NK border , the question needs to be addressed: How will gold react? what about the world’s euphoric stock markets?

  5. dboz

    Don, this is nothing more than a show of force. Nothing is going to happen. We are exerting our military power to say the last 8 years are over. We can and we will call the bluffs and we are not going to get run over any longer. If they are dumb enough to wish the full force of a US military response to reign down on their puny defenses, god help them. As for the Russians, same thing. Russia and its military is built for land warfare. How do you move any of that into position to be of any meaningful threat? For China it will be economic suicide and same deal, land based military. Just go to http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp and compare military strengths.

    We have double the air capacity of China and Russia combined. We have the ability to launch Aircraft from 19 carriers. China and Russia have 2 between them. Our military can be anywhere at any time. How do you move a land based military anywhere to do any harm with so little protection and such poor naval odds?

    While I am no advocate for war, the reality is this, anyone picking a fight with the US Military is going to lose. Nukes or no nukes. While they have subs that could get in close enough to launch nukes on us, they still have to be able to get them off and through our air defense system.

    1. Don

      dboz: I agree with your analysis, however, who’s picking a fight with the US? No one is attacking the US. The US seems hell bent on starting wars and I think much of the world is getting fed up with the US abusing it’s military strength to bully, kill and maim the citizens of other countries, particularly when it really is about oil and pipelines. Reality check my friend. The US hasn’t been the military to spread democracy for the past twenty years.

    2. Don

      I guess I have to disagree about it all being ‘a show of force”. I am convinced that the US will attack. You are right about no other military being a match for the US,

  6. 1970confused

    I really have to shake my head at this video. nothing makes sense hence my name!! Gold(gld) are above the 200dma and above there 50 and 200wma. My opinion is that it is just back testing these averages before moving higher. Why does gold always have to have a blood phase moment, why can it just be a normal pullback like the stock markets???? Silver is down 9 days in a row and the miners have gotten killed since early Feb. I mean GDXJ is down 26% since hitting 43$. There is more pain to come and people are itching to pull the trigger you say and thats where it gets very confusing because all I see is fear and capitulation in the miners. Maybe the banks have used this to keep people away from the sector making us think gold is going lower and there ‘s the confusion that they have created. My opinion is that we go higher after the FOMC meeting next week!!

  7. Steffmeister

    Steffmeister Thursday Fun Analysis, look at the chart:

    http://i629.photobucket.com/albums/uu19/solssonabb/Baby_zpsvlzxuqns.png

    Two cycles, one bigger “The mother” and one smaller “The baby” they are almost identical when 50% of the baby cycle wave has been printed in the chart. I’ve added the wave structure going into the future, a plausible outcome imo. From now on I am expecting a creeping trend, there is still bulls/buyers in the market. We got lower highs and lower lows in the chart and it will always end with a sharp correction when the buyers are gone. Please be patient here and wait for the sharp a-b-c correction. After the fifth and final wave of the c we will finally get the buying opportunity.

      1. Steffmeister

        haha Jesus himself had no father, no mommy is out walking with the baby, the father has been eaten by nasty bears

  8. shiva1968

    The pain train for PM longs is likely just leaving the station. I’m sticking with DUST for now. We could get a bounce when GDX hits 21 which should occur about the same time as the RSI hits 30. One could sell then and angle for a better price when the RSI returns to neutral around 50 which may or may not occur before the BIG plunge. Like Gary said, gold hasn’t even really rolled over yet and if / when it does silver and miners are in for a beating. We shall see. : )

  9. Strike

    Take your pick:
    March 2017 lows 1194 $GOLD, 21.14 GDX
    Dec 2016 lows 1124 $GOLD, 18.58 GDX
    And the ones no one is yet talking about (although Ped used to):
    Dec 2105/Jan 2016 lows 1045 $GOLD, 12.36 GLD
    That last one will only occur if I go all-in at 1124/18.58 LOL; seriously, I think Gary has dismissed that possibility recently – correct Gary?

  10. victor

    crude should rally, oversold and sentiment is pessimistic, bought it for short term rally at least…

  11. primetime

    Confused,

    No one knows what is going to happen. That is why every “expert” will have an opinion, and at that, a different opinion. They love to keep people emotional, as that is what keeps people motivated and interested in the business.

    They will give you multiple scenarios. The summary of these scenarios is gold will either go up, down, or sideways. They will try to sound ultra-intelligent and use every thesaurus available.
    Brilliance will be put on display. They will change the narrative hourly, daily and weekly to fit their scenario on what is happening in the sector. As you know, a lot of times the narrative does not even make sense. What is so common about common sense nowadays?

    When they are correct, rarely, even when giving every scenario, they must boast like Muhammad Ali, “I am the greatest”. When they are wrong, they run and hide.

    Just look at the bigger picture, and think longer term. The experts say this is a bull market and we will be rewarded. We should all feel more confident now, after all they know. However, they sure seem scared of some downside. HaHa So comical.

    Not caveman, I am kicking back, having a cold one off the glacier from the cup of a woolly mammoth skull. LIFE IS GOOD. and quite simple.

  12. Gary Post author

    I’m getting tired of these dumbass questions asking if I still think JNUG is going to $500. Folks you are trying to visualize $500 while we’re still basing at the bottom. Take a look at this chart and you tell me if you think JNUG will be $500 at this point.

    1. mark miller

      So easy to be so certain and a bit arrogant when you don’t put your money where your mouth is. JNUG has crushed your Old Turkey holders and this is giving them more false hope. ๐Ÿ˜Ž

      1. Gary Post author

        Just more stupid nonsense.

        We aren’t holding Old Turkey right now. Once gold got pushed into the extended basing pattern Old Turkey went out the window for now. We are trading the swings and doing a pretty good job of it so far. The metal portfolio is back up to +154%.

        Realistically almost no one would be able to hang on through the huge roller coaster ride that will surely unfold on the way to $500. So there’s no sense trying to do it. 99.9% of all traders just don’t have the emotional control that it would take to survive that ride.

        But I guarantee I will ultimately be right about this. JUNG will easily make it to $500 or higher as gold is going to at least $5000 and probably $10,000 is more realistic based on how big this consolidation is going to be.

        Look at how quickly the Nasdaq has gone to 6000 after the 15 year breakout.

        Most of you just have no clue how bull markets work.

        10,000 is going to be a piece of cake for the Nasdaq and 20,000 is probably more realistic.

        1. mark miller

          Lol … nonsense. You NEVER NEVER NEVER told your Old Turkey holders to sell. As a matter of fact you said you were “backing up the truck” then after an absolute ass kicking you gave a half-assed sell signal (along with a lot of mixed signals) to sell at 1275 … man up!!! … you left a lot of your subs screwed! Now, you have a bit of favorable revisionist history. ๐Ÿ˜€๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿคฃ

          1. Gary Post author

            Clearly you ignored the stop at 1275. I’m sure there where traders that did ignore that stop because they couldn’t bring themselves to take the loss. But a lot of traders didn’t. Many have emailed me to thank me for getting them out. And those people now have more in their metal portfolio than they did at the top last summer.

            Own up to your mistakes. You decided to ignore the stop. No one else is to blame.

            Just pathetic.

  13. zkotpen

    && Looks like we’ve found Steffmeister’s missing father, retrieved from the jaws of the bear ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Looks like October-November, 2012, all over again, just when I thought you had come to a bit of moderation.

    Actually, as long as you “keep it real” — i.e., closer in to the “here and now” — you’ve been quite accurate.

    Reward:risk ratio? There’s no award or reward for publishing that chart, even if it turned out to be correct, but lots of risk.

    Oh well, thanks again for the previously mentioned inspirations. And, of course, we are pretty much on the same page regarding the here & now part of your charts — though I will repeat: The lower trendline you’ve drawn on gold is NOT sacrosanct. That one was made to be broken, quite possibly on the current IC or YC decline. Not saying lower lows (than 2015), yet.

  14. zkotpen

    My God… it seems like that was the same chart I saw on October 27, 2012!!

    Time-adjusted, to be sure.

    Back then, I had approximately zERo understanding of market analysis, and I relied solely on that highly subjective prediction. Today, I do my own due diligence — a heck of a lot of it, as some can understand. But there are people who will be demanding time-adjusted $500 for each time-adjusted share of JNUG they will put into their portfolio at the lowest point in blue on your chart: ICL/YCL, July, 2017.

    As a wise man once said:

    โ€œBE CAREFUL THIS ISNโ€™T DONE YET โ€“ GLDโ€

  15. Pedestrian

    I’m looking for gold to rise to 1284 Monday or Tuesday and then drop fairly quickly afterwards.

    1. tfinavia

      Hi, I am thinking 1284 for gold tomorrow on Friday, not possible? That way dxy can trap bears on Monday and hit 98.4 target tomorrow as gold rebounds. Thanks

  16. zkotpen

    Ped,

    At present I don’t think so. The 50 & 200 day SMA for gold are slowly, ever so slowly getting together, chanting all the while…

    “Come to me…”

    “Come to me…”

    “Look into my eyes…”

    “Come to me…”

    ๐Ÿ™‚

  17. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “We are trading the swings and doing a pretty good job of it so far.”

    I agree!

    Why mess with a good thing???

    1. Gary Post author

      There will be a time to return to Old Turkey, but gold needs to get out of this basing pattern first.

  18. Steffmeister

    There is one problem with Gary’s MEGA SHOOT CHART, there is no double bottom, there is a double top that’s nice, but we also need a double bottom.

    This is very important for the double bottom:
    it’s either now in 2017 (midsummer?) combined with a spike in Open Interest or late 2018/early 2019 together with a horrific currency deflation crisis. The Mega Fractal in Gold is pointing out the direction, but if the centralbanks is going mad earlier than predicted, 2017 is the year to back up the truck, sell your house, wife and kids and buy precious metals with all you got ๐Ÿ™‚

  19. Pedestrian

    Here is a chart for the cave guy.

    The questions that need to be answered after looking at this dollar chart are twofold.
    1) Is this chart predictive on a cycles basis for the next direction of the dollar (and thus is the future already written)?
    2) Does this chart tell you that the dollar has topped and gold (and commodities) are about to have a big run higher?

    Chart courtesy of Goldtadise.com and was posted by Schism. This chart looks very positive for the gold bulls.
    https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/us-dollar-presdident.png

    1. dboz

      Great chart. Yes, it appears the dollar could be on its path back down to the 70ish level. That would certainly give credence to allow gold to make a large run up.

  20. Pedestrian

    So back to my breakout thought. I have been running support and resistance lines on GLD and gold and the way I look at the set up is that there are unfilled channels that strongly imply we are going to see a technical breakout above the 1300 dollar level with a possibility of highs coming in near 1321. I realize of course that gold looks bad right now but we don’t know how long its going to loiter up at current levels and burn off the negative sentiment. I still see the possibility that a minor pullback will lead to a break above the channel, not that gold will crash and burn before rising again later in the year. Perhaps we will just get a small taste of the future with a signal that next January will be another for the books.

  21. dboz

    Ped, I agree. I never thought we were going straight up. However, I also did not expect to have repeated bloodbath retraces. I would guess that at some point volatility will level out and we will have a little less issue with running to extremes. If not, I am going to lose it all. Lol

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