170 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE

  1. vin

    Gary, What is your thoughts on gold now? Or, have you already changed your advice to “buy” since “yesterday”?

    1. Gary Post author

      I like to buy at intermediate cycle lows when the weekly stochastic are oversold.

      I can be patient and wait for it.

      More often than not these kind of news events mark an emotional top than the beginning of a move. ie the Brexit vote.

      1. RTTPD

        Who says this is a single, solitary event? Reciprocity may be lurking in the shadows…..

      2. jake

        What do you think Gary,
        Having been co-opted by the Pentagon rampaging Trump should set up a SM pull back and buying opportunity today?
        And Golds up thrust last night won’t help going into a cycle low around expiry week in a delivery month?

      3. tfinavia

        Gary, this looks last hurrah in gold near 1268. I was targeting this number few weeks back then gave up. Surprised to see it achieving after a long arduous bumps against 200 DMA. Today, I am thinking miners sell off and close beneath their 34 WMA again to close the week for this fourth week consecutively.

  2. jacob2

    An election night redo? Not a cue but leaning no. Oil ( own some ) perhaps a better ticket then gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would agree. Oil looks like it’s at the very start of a new intermediate cycle while gold is going to be 17 weeks into an intermediate cycle. The potential is now with oil for 2-3 months.

      Once gold moves down into its next ICL then it will be time to buy aggressively.

      The best time to buy is when it’s hardest to pull the trigger. And the worst time to buy is usually when it’s easiest to pull the trigger.

  3. Steffmeister

    It’s timee for me to repeat my calls for 2017 and onwards. The next three years is going to be very interesting with a lot of volatility. I think it’s harder to make calls months in advance and be reasonable right than flip-flopping and say “I am changing my calls with market changes”. So here it goes, I will save this post for future reference ๐Ÿ™‚

    GOLD&SILVER: The fractal in GDXJ tells us that a high will occur in mid May, 15-16th. Mr Merlin says end of April. Then a decline into summer with a low at or around end of July/August. Gold=July, Silver Aug perhaps. I will post the fractal chart once it’s been fullfilled for all to see that the true nature of all markets and charts is fractal.

    STOCKMARKET: We most certainly will see a top in 2017. Maybe as soon as midsummer, end of June. No crash but a year long decline, then FED will fire up a monstrous QE4 and we will take it from there. Ancient cycles is predicting a major top a decade from now. I will post another chart confirming this scenario.

    US T-BOND 30y: A 35year bull market is coming to an end in 2017. The timeline for the US treasure bond is linked with Gold. A bond yield low in late 2017, Nov-Dec, thats the same as a bull top for the price of the bond, a final hurrah. Followed by great turmoil in markets due to a credit/currency/financial crisis, the major fractal in Gold is predicting some sort of reserve currency crisis in 2018. After the shakeout we will get the Major Gold Trade that we all been waiting for so long. This is the time to load up on your favorite gold&silver miners and just sit back&relax.

    Of course this is no investment advice, this is just for fun!

    Have a nice weekend.

  4. Emptyness

    It looks like the right place to forecast the future (which is not really possible). Here is my forecast:
    GOLD is strong enough to break out (> 1265 USD) in april, then the short speculators are forced to cover their shorts, with the result of a gold price > 1300 USD. That means the long-standing downward trend is broken and we maybe get the chance of a retest of the 2016 highs around 1360 USD – before we get a correction to the upward trendline.
    STOCKMARKETS are going to loose it’s biggest driver – cheap FED paper money – in the near future. Consequently there is not enough power to blow up the bubble and we will get sideward markets with more volatility.

  5. Dday

    All what has been said over the last couple of weeks can now be scrapped. Gold jumped on Syria, not everything is possible to see on cycles/charts etc….. $1300 looks inevitable…

  6. brianbreeze

    Gary,
    Good luck with your $40 or lower oil call. As always you are the best contrarian indicator out there when it comes to calling oil price direction.

    1. Gary Post author

      If you did the opposite of me then you would have been selling when I was buying. I already explained oil was due for a at least a daily cycle low. I bought that bottom. Only missed it by one day. The plan was to see how the rally out of the DCL played out. It’s starting to look like it’s going to become a larger ICL, no doubt helped out by the middle east mess.

      So I’ll keep holding my long positions for now, but if oil looks like it’s going to roll over and make another leg down I’ll exit.

      So I’m playing it by ear at the moment.

  7. Gary Post author

    We may be about ready for bonds to break down and give us that second leg down. They’ve been forming a bear flag for 4 months now.

    1. goldbug2

      “We may be about ready for bonds to break down and give us that second leg down. Theyโ€™ve been forming a bear flag for 4 months now.”
      Would that not take the S+P down too?

  8. Goild

    Good morning,
    Likely gold will not come down that easily in the next days.
    A first JNUG reaction was to also go up.
    So I added 1K JNUG shares at $7.11 for a t total of 2K.
    Plan to add more as other dips come in.
    So this might be easy money.

    Good trading to all.

  9. Gary Post author

    Gold has major resistance at the 1275 level. (Where our stop was right after the election).

    I think the buy right now is in the stock market and energy stocks. Energy stocks are oversold on the weekly stochastics. That’s where I like to buy.

    No way I would chase gold this late in a daily and intermediate cycle, especially not on a news event.

    Remember the Brexit and election?

    1. Dday

      I don’t to be melodramatic, but this I think this is in a completely different league to Brexit, ok very doomsdayish I know. But seriously the US firing missiles at Assad, is akin to firing missiles at the Kremlin. But yes gold is late in it’s daily cycle….

  10. Goild

    Rapunsel

    Ped I think posted it a few weeks/months ago and I do not remember exactly when.
    Though it is easy to draw, just have the gold chart and draw a line from the 2012 peak to the 2016 peak.
    The take is that gold is bearish as long as it stands below that trend line. Once gold crosses it, it will confirm a new paradigm, that is bullish.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold never needed to cross any trend line to confirm the bull market. All it ever needed to do was start making higher highs and higher lows of a yearly cycle degree. It did that last year.

      Like I’ve been saying all along gold is in a new bull market. But….

      It may be stuck in a triangle basing pattern for most or all of 2017.

      I think stocks need to complete their euphoria phase before gold will be ready to really start moving higher with authority.

  11. Goild

    Getting into the SM at this point and in view of the news, is like committing suicide.
    The SM scenario is bleak.

    1. Gary Post author

      The time to buy is when it’s most difficult to pull the trigger. The time to sell is when it’s easiest to pull the trigger.

      Earnings are up 20% from the first quarter of last year. The earnings recession is over. This and the emotions that drive it will complete the euphoria phase of the stock bull.

  12. Dday

    I’ll wait for a week or two. If the SM’s takes off i’ll jump on board. At the moment I really don’t think its that clear cut. Patience and insurance play here.

    1. Dday

      If the situation in Syria escalates will people pile into stocks? It’s a genuine question i’m not being rhetorical…..

    2. Gary Post author

      By waiting you let your emotions give you the buy signal. Waiting a couple of weeks will probably put the stock market in the timing band for a half cycle low. So probably all you will accomplish by waiting for your emotions to give you the all clear is to buy at a short term top.

      Which is Ok as long as you don’t sell low.

      If you also think stocks need to finish their euphoria stage then you can buy anywhere, just like you can with gold. Ultimately both are in bull markets and any timing mistakes will get corrected.

  13. Goild

    While the PPT can most easily manipulate the SM at the pre-session, we shall see what is the general reaction at the open.

  14. Gary Post author

    I will like when the weekly stochastics get oversold again. That’s when I’ll want to buy. No one else will though and they’ll think I’m an idiot for buying gold as the charts will be pointing down.

    The same thing that happened back in Dec. when I was bullish and everyone else was bearish.

    1. Robert

      Gary the job report was bad gold will have a hard time trying to go down. It looks like 1300 coming and even if it drops it will be mild. Like you said all bad entries will get corrected

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL how many times have I heard that one near IC tops. “Any correction will be mild and I’ll back up the truck at the bottom”.

        ICL’s are never mild in gold. Did we see anyone backing up the truck at the Dec. bottom (except me)?

        No way. Even though back in the summer every one was saying any correction would be mild and they would back up the truck when it came.

        Gold hasn’t even gotten through that major resistance zone at 1275 yet. I have my doubts that it will during this daily cycle.

          1. Gary Post author

            The time to back up the truck will be when the weekly stochastics get oversold and no one but me wants to buy. ๐Ÿ™‚

            That doesn’t mean I will time a perfect entry. I almost never do and that causes the trolls to go crazy gloating. But in the end we just keep making consistent money even though I rarely time perfect trades.

            It’s all about the scoreboard baby and ours just keeps inching up.

  15. Emptyness

    One-dimensional thinking doesn’t work – neither in science nor in investing and trading. It’s a good idea to buy gold at the bottom (if you know were it is). But it’s also a good idea to buy gold when the situation is right. That’s now – but first gold has to overcome the manipulators. What an exciting day today !

    1. Gary Post author

      I think I can virtually guarantee that anyone buying gold today will have a loss within the next month.

      If one buys late in an intermediate cycle you force yourself to time a perfect exit in order to make money.

      If you buy close to the bottom of an intermediate cycle you have much better odds of making and holding onto profits.

  16. Don

    Just sold all my GDX at 23.95 with a nice profit .Keeping 1500 shares of Canadian ZJG, for now. This pop in gold should be bought if there is a pullback today. The American bombing of Syria will not affect the markets for very long but the PMs were ready to move up anyway, as I have been saying for some time now.

  17. Don

    The Americans are always bombing somebody, somewhere, nothing new, but if Putin decides to step up the game, things could get ugly.

  18. Goild

    Good morning so far.

    The 1K JNUG shares are nicely up, and day trading has produced +$1000.00.
    Good trading to all.
    Become a scalper to complement profits!

  19. Goild

    I hate myself for doing scalping, but I cannot argue with the profits.
    30 round trips or about $30 per trade.

  20. ted

    Sad to say Gary, you are a little off these days. I am completely going against your trades. I am bullish Gold now and bearish Stocks. When stocks ran up from last years low, you kept out of it waiting for an ICL that never came to any real extent. The Trump rally caught you off guard and you put all your attention on Gold. Now as a Gold bug, you are bearish, which I find amusing when Gold is ready to take off. Most people are going to miss this run. I think you need to look at the weekly charts for stocks (very bearish), and run back into Gold before you miss too much of this move. It’s amazing how the whipsaw grates on people and they miss the best moves possible.

    1. Gary Post author

      But our portfolios just keep making money. How is that possible I wonder?

      I wanted to wait and see if the PPT would still protect the market with the new administration. Clearly nothing has changed so it’s time to start playing stocks for the euphoria phase.

      I’ll buy gold when the weekly stochastics get oversold again. That will be when you and everyone else is telling me gold is going down.

      This is how I just keep making money. I do the opposite of what the average person does.

  21. Bigdaddy

    Whoopee! I am finally making some money on my miners. I bought a load of GDX in after hours trading after seeing Pedestrian call for gold to fall. What an idiot. Don, why are you selling your GDX? Aren’t we on a roll?

    1. Pedestrian

      Yesterday you call me a dip shit and today an idiot?

      Yikes. Pretty hostile stuff there buddy. You might need a sedative to go with those minuscule 1.6% GDX gains today (ouch). Some of us need a bigger bang for the buck though. As I told you yesterday I was looking for a good entry in JDST and today I got it at 13.10 so I’m short miners again.

      Best of luck to you.

  22. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Bravo on your repeated warnings/cautions on going long Precious Metals at this late juncture.

    Miners up 2.1% with gold up 1.2%? Looks like deep in the killer wave of a bull trap to me, too.

    Congrats to the folks who were able to profit from the move up in miners — as I’ve always said, if you’re nimble, you can snag a huge chunk of cheese before the trap slams shut — so long as you don’t hang around too long!

  23. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Don’t hate yourself for scalping if you make profits consistently. Daily — monthly — yearly bottom line? Is it green? Great for you.

    Heck, if you do a somersault, then run around your computer with a hardback copy of David Copperfield balanced on your head, then eat one scoop of cookies & cream ice cream and wash it down with a ristretto in the process of each trade — if that works for you, then press on!

    May not be the most efficient way of trading, but if you’re making consistent profits, you’re doing something right!

  24. Goild

    zkotpen,

    Thanks for the support. Fully appreciate it.
    On other topic, I think I will reread some of the Black Swan book after your comments.
    Maybe I need to be wiser about the book contents.
    Have a great day.

  25. dboz

    So far today, I am not liking the miner action. Still no volume or conviction. No one believes, maybe for good reason. This could be a crash by the end of the day. Expected way more after a $15 gold move and break out above the 1265 level. There is just no panic in regards to shorts covering. Tells me something is up. This sector cannot be human driven. I think the algo traders rule this tiny low volume sliver of the market. I could easily see this move reverse by the end of the day and turn into a RED day. I am moving stops up to lock gains should that happen. This does not seem to be typical behavior compared to the metal price increases. At this point we are $120 from last years highs and we are no where near the same levels of miner prices as we were then. Tells me sentiment is not there and there are no BIG buyers in this sector. I think Gary is right, we could be in for a serious take down in the metals and miners soon. I am not going to sell, but if I get stopped out, so be it. I am not riding a big drop down any longer. This is a very difficult market. I would expect those jumping into miners today will be panicking by the end of the day and bailing out. I hope not, but that is my gut instincts.

  26. Don

    Bigdaddy: I just wanted to lighten up on my American holdings because the Canadian dollar looks like it has bottomed. I will buy Canadian miners with the cash from GDX. I have a few penny stocks I am going to add to. They should take off once gold approaches 1300. I still think the SM is in for a big drop but so far, no joy. We shall see.

  27. Don

    Also, caution on the miners may be prudent because if the SM falls, so will the miners even if gold does go up.

  28. Gary Post author

    It’s been my opinion for awhile now that the banks are setting the miners up to drive them below the Dec. low during gold’s next ICL.

    That will trigger a ton of stops and allow them to get into huge positions right at the bottom.

    Everyone will be panicking and selling.

    I’ll be buying. ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. dboz

      Gary, I will be waiting for that also. I have to accept that this is NOT the move……YET!

    2. Robert

      Gary that Dec low doesn’t make sense. Gold made a higher high today so that should be a right translated cyle which would make 1200 likely strong support

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m talking about miners. Gold has very little chance of dropping below the Dec. low.

        I think the manipulation of the gold market has ended. It moved to the mining stocks where they can short as heavily as they want. The banks got busted manipulating gold. If they get caught again I would have to think someone will spend some time in prison.

  29. JJHarmen

    Don…. your calls on gold have been good but you keep saying the stock market is going down and it’s not happening. Gary says to never short the market so I am concerned that I may lose what profits I have on my inverse etfs. Do you see the market bouncing back up ?

  30. primetime

    We all must remember there are never any external events or surprises that may affect a cycle or chart. The world is a safe, calm place. Right?

  31. Don

    JJ: I am not sure of anything. Unlike Gary, I can’t guarantee what may happen. The stock market could easily do what it has been doing for years and shoot right back up. I am betting that down is more probable than up at this point. If it does shoot back up, I think it will be a marginal new high and then a crash. I can wait it out. The question you need answered is : Can you?

  32. Don

    For weeks now, we have seen a repeating pattern, with the Asians driving up the physical gold market up and then the American market opens ( for paper gold) and it gets driven down with a recovery late in the day. It looks like a shit load of arbitrage is going on with the FED (via it’s agents) losing control of gold’s price despite it’s extensive use of selling paper contracts. The Asians are winning.

  33. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Happy reading!

    Have you read The Goal?

    And, of course… it shouldn’t surprise you:

    Carlos Castaneda?

  34. Don

    The PMs are up, despite the headwind of a rising dollar. That is extremely bullish. The dollar looks quite over bought and ready for some downside action and if that is the case, expect the PMs to go higher yet.

  35. Bigdaddy

    Seems to me that Gary has been on the side lines all through this gold miner rally. Strange for a guy who says he is gold bullish. Doesn’t make sense to me.

    1. Christian

      What Rally?? Miners have been consolidating for the past month or so and they continue to lag behind Gold. Wouldn’t you rather wait for Gold to drop into an ICL first so as to increase the probability of a good trade..? That’s what trading is all about. Increasing the odds in your favour so that you don’t burn your account on a bunch of worthless trades ๐Ÿ™‚

    2. Gary Post author

      Nonsense. We took the metal portfolio from +50% to +130%. We made more money in 2 months than most traders make in 3-4 years.

      If I had recognized earlier the manipulation in the mining sector we could have gotten out up 179%. We gave some back but I figured it out eventually that the miners are being set up to be driven below the Dec. low during the next ICL. So I’m staying out for now. No need to be a pig at this point and risk giving back any more of our gains.

      I’ll wait till the weekly stochastics cycle back down to oversold.

  36. Christian

    Very tempted to short OIL at these levels. We’re due for a correction despite my overall bullish outlook.

  37. Don

    bigdaddy: I agree that is a puzzle as to why Gary has been just “watching”. Of the 50 sector ETFS that I track, the best five performers of the past month have been, in order : SLV +12.7% GDX +10.7% KOL +10.7%
    SLV +5$% GLD +4% Those are numbers a gold bull should be capturing. BTW, the stock market is only down 0.6% over the same period. The PMS and miners have done very well in comparison.

    1. dboz

      It was so obvious this AM the only way to beat down gold was with the currency run up. Today is about killing gold and miner sentiment for good for some time now. This could cascade quickly.

  38. Pedestrian

    Sold JDST @ 14.10 and I’m done for the day. I won’t bother saying how much lunch money I made like my good friend Goild as apt to tell but it was a good trade as usual. And that friends is how its done.

    1. bluelagoon

      Nice trade Ped. I bought JDST at $13.06 and sold too early at $13.80 ….. then boom – run up to $14.60’s. I have to see if I can learn to hold on longer – what indicators may tell me that.

      1. Pedestrian

        I sold a little too early as well and missed out on 30 cents but I was following a pattern and made a snap decision. That’s mostly because I dislike giving back a gain and I think I was feeling the trade was threatened when price started dropping too fast.

        Oh well. Monday is another day.

        So I am still holding JNUG and think it has room to move up yet. We will see. Wasted the afternoon as price dithered around going nowhere fast. I don’t generally like to hold over weekends but then I thought “Does anyone really believe Donald has finished in Syria after one single strike?”….

        I think we will see some follow up this weekend.

        Anyway, to me it looks like JNUG broke above its channel line turning the chart bullish today. The close was OK. I could be wrong of course but it looks like there is support for a move higher. Gold bottomed on a decent support implying a bounce back next week and even GDX is showing some positive signs.

        Maybe I just need new glasses!

        1. Pedestrian

          See what I mean. This news item came in just hours ago. On a weekend naturally enough. The Syrian missile strikes are not just a “one and done” deal. So expect market volatility to increase and gold to act less predictably. This news item alone could see gold resistant to dropping next week if investors sense more trouble is coming.
          http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-08/trump-tells-congress-us-will-take-additional-action-further-national-interest-syria

  39. 1970confused

    Shitty jobs numbers this morning GDP getting cut every day the world going to war once again and GOLD sells off once more????????!!!!!!! I do not care what anyone says, GOLD is sill being manipulated via the currencies USD/JPY. Well why they choose to short the hell out of the miners after a six year brutal selloff is beyond me at this point. NOTHING makes any sense anymore

  40. macman1519

    Gary you made a comment earlier that some are talking politics too much, that this is a finacial board. Hate to burst your bubble, but somtimes politics is what moves the markets, hence the trump bump and the decline currently affecting the SMs due to trumps failures and the uncertainty his presidency engenders. To stick your head in the sand and refuse to discuss politics affects on the markets and gold is doing a disservice to your readers.

    1. Gary Post author

      Personally I think Trump has a chance to clean up this corrupt system that has evolved here in the US. But it isn’t going to be easy. The establishment will fight tooth and nail to keep power.

      But you never hear me talking about it here on the blog.

  41. dboz

    $.40 beat down of silver for no reason what so ever. Not a sell off, just a crash. Really sick of this. It takes months to grind up and then in 5 minutes the months of gains are gone.

    On a day they revise the 1st Q GDP down to a drip, BTFD. It is beyond comical if it was not costing me so much money.

    What a massive instant reversal in USDJPY, over nothing.

  42. alvinheart

    Gary, what is your favored vehicle for trading energy stocks? XLE? How long to you think you will be in them? Any guesses? Thanks. Alvin

  43. 1970confused

    In the same boat as you dboz….I still wonder why Gary says there is no manipulaton in the metals when there is clear evidence it is still going on. Why so much energy on confusing the few that want to buy and hold instaed of every day the same f’ing thing to clearly make you doubt!!!!

  44. MattyMan

    Agree 100% with Gary’s call for sub-December lows for miners with gold holding above said lows…

    Held my JDST through the mess this morning – never had a stop in place, but it never really got close to making new lows – just can’t understand how sending a few missiles into a Syrian military target makes everyone say, “OMG, better get some gold before the world goes into chaos!”

    Still underwater by about 4 points, but I am not concerned since I feel strongly about miners going back to those December lows, maybe even further

    Wish I made Pedestrian’s trades, but that is not currently my trading style… Maybe one day, if I can devote more time to it during the day instead of working like a sucker – nice work Ped!

  45. dboz

    There is NEVER a reason to own gold or silver. It is such a sliver of the population that even owns ANY. Very few people have any sense of worth of either as they have not been used as money for close to 90 years now. No one left living remembers using gold and silver coins as currency or owning a paper certificate redeemable for the metal on demand.

    Not sure where I am going to go from here. Very close to getting stopped out of everything now. Really not caring. If you don’t time entry and exits perfectly, it is virtually impossible to make money. Buy and hold does not work for sure. I am proof of that. Made huge gains and given them all back on 3 occasions now.

    Should just sell, it ALWAYS has to crash back in this sector. ALWAYS. Can never just keep going up for any period consolidate and then up again. 3-5 weeks and poof, massive crash. Then bottom feeding for months on end as the bleed never stops. If it is a bull market, price has to rise. Metals may be in a bull market, miners are not.

    If you did not sell in early Feb. like Gary, you are down big and no real chance to get back for maybe a year or more now. Not exactly a good return to have your money sitting there in massive negative positions.

    Of course I am the only one dumb enough to keep playing in these. It is obvious by the complete lack of volume there are very few in the sector at this time. I think I have been hit over the head by the hammer enough times now to cry UNCLE and move on.

  46. Rapunsel

    America dropping bombs and launching missiles is a big nothing burger. We have been doing it daily for at least the last 16 years. Just and opp for Wall Street to capture the least sophisticated traders at the top and then take them down, down, down. When everyone and his brother are convinced the miners will never recover, jump in with both hands. Just sayin….

    Gary I am starting to see things in your direction.

    We will see.

  47. jacob2

    Adding to material and infrastructure stocks ( own quite a few). Completing corrections in a LT. bull trend imho.

  48. Don

    The big rise in the dollar has knocked down the PMs. I think the dollar is due for a fall although maybe not right away.

  49. Gary Post author

    Here’s the bottom line: You can buy at any point and the bull will rescue your position. You can even buy JNUG or NUGT at the very top of an intermediate cycle. But… it’s not going to be an easy path. There will be huge drawdowns along the way. But ultimately I think JNUG will be above $500 at the top of golds bubble.

    But as we have seen no one is emotionally capable of holding through the roller coaster ride to get there because everyone is short term oriented and during ICL’s one loses sight of the bigger picture.

    So even if someone bought JNUG at the very top at $35 and held on you will still make an insane amount of money by the time the bubble top arrives. But none of you will have the ability to hang on long enough to see the reward.

    Right now it’s just time for gold to drop into an intermediate degree correction. This is often how tops form. Emotional retail traders buy on a news event thinking this will initiate a big leg up. Professionals sell on the news event knowing that the news soon fades and price reverts back to being controlled by sentiment. Sentiment just got a little too bullish in gold and it needs to drop into an ICL soon.

    Once it does and the weekly stochastics cycle back down to oversold then it will be time to buy gold. It won’t look like it though. No one will be able to see any scenario in which gold should rise. I will though because cycles and sentiment will tell me it’s time to buy.

    1. HomerJ

      So I’m curious Gary, are you holding JNUG or NUGT or UPRO that you keep mentioning as (seemingly) the only trading vehicles?
      It would seem to me that if you are so convinced of their ultimate rich-beyond-dream making abilities, you would have a bunch of cash in it, maybe even your entire portfolio.

      1. Gary Post author

        No I’m not holding JUNG Old Turkey. None of my subscribers are emotionally capable of hanging on through that kind of roller coaster ride to get to the final bubble phase, and I’m not even sure I could do it.

        I’m just going to keep buying ICL’s and trying to sell as close to IC tops as I can. I won’t outperform a simple Old Turkey strategy with JUNG over the log haul, but I also won’t get the ulcers that will come with trying to hold JNUG Old Turkey.

        1. HomerJ

          On this I agree with you, no one would be able to hold these ETFs that are intended to lose money. Even the issuers specify to not hold them for anything other than short-term trade.
          OK, just wanted to know.

      1. Christian

        Muskie — Are you always a jackass or is this happenstance?

        Yes, Gary is a bit of a stubborn bugger sometimes.. but he’s still one heck of an Analyst, especially for the un-initiated ๐Ÿ™‚

      2. Gary Post author

        Like I keep saying, it’s all about the scoreboard and ours just keeps grinding higher.

        You can read the lies posted by the obvious trolls or you can follow my real time calls.

        Sure I don’t win on every trade, nobody does, but we are consistently increasing our portfolios as the winners far outweigh the losers.

  50. MattyMan

    If they finish the day at or near their intraday lows, GDX & GDXJ will have an Outside Day… Also GDXJ’s 4th failed attempt at closing the week above its 20 week EMA…

  51. Alexandru Popovici

    Trump’s action on Syria stoped me out of my short-gold trade but it is the first time I can say anything appreciative of him.
    I would diagnostice him as psychopat before American psychiatrists started to call him a malign narcisit – the equivalent of psychopat – I am still convinced he is a psychopat but I appreciate his decision today.

    I am waiting to go long gold as it moves below 1245 on Monday/Tuesday.

  52. JJHarmen

    Gold is still up on the day, silver took a big hit. I think I will buy some silver on spec.

    1. Gary Post author

      We are consistently adding to our portfolios over time. You day traders can freak out over every wiggle but I’m making consistent money and that’s all that counts.

    2. Gary Post author

      We are making consistent money over time. That’s all that counts.

      I’ll let you day traders freakout over every little wiggle.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s what stops are for in case the market doesn’t do what you expect. The best traders in the world adapt and adapt quickly when the market does the unexpected.

      Retail traders call it flip flopping. But then most of you are clueless. All that matters is if you make money, not whether you have to change direction because the market threw you a curve ball.

  53. Don

    The VIX is up over 3% and the SM is doing nothing. Could be a forewarning or just a temporary reaction to the American attack. Hmmm….

    1. HomerJ

      VIX is a reflection of the SPY Put prices. Higher VIX means higher SPY Put IV and Premiums. This is why both can be green, or both can be red.

  54. Don

    Does this guy have a crystal ball concerning the escalation of the war in Syria? So far, he has nailed it.

  55. Goild

    What a day!

    I was increasing the $1k I had in the morning, and got caught on the falling knife, to loose about $7k.
    Miraculously I was able to get back to +$1K green.
    I was caught off-guard, tired, and the old habit hit me. I need to establish a procedure to not not get caught again.
    Have a nice weekend guys!!!

  56. KHT

    Still holding my entire position in JDST, was on the road today and unable to average lower, not so sure i would have pulled the trigger if i could have as i don`t want this position size any larger.

    Took a small position in [email protected]

    1. Pedestrian

      Good call KHT. Funny but I never looked at DSLV all day until I saw your post. Forgot all about it. That’s quite an outside reversal there and gives me a few doubts about gold next week. DSLV might retest the lows around 20.40 though and if so I will be buying along with you since that chart looks like a clear bottom. Actually, a retest would be really bullish in my view and would make for an even better looking chart.

      1. KHT

        18 is critical for silver and a break below things could move fast. I realize I am a bit early which is why I opened a small position . I believe this coming week will be a down one for the PMs and miners, but at the least a pivotal one so I think longs and shorts have to be nimble.

        Also, Ackerman has noted quite a few times recently that USD 113 is a distinct possibility and this 20yr+/- chart has some eerie similarities.

        https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_3ec32b16f59aa7e7838144269b7229b7.png

  57. Robert

    If miners are the new manipulation toy then maybe better to go long gold instead when bullish?

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s exactly what I told subs several weeks ago. If they wanted to stay long the metals this late in an intermediate cycle they should stick with GLD. And trail a stop.

  58. Emptyness

    That was an interesting day. Look at Gold 5 minutes: The manipulation started at 12 am and ended at 2 pm. Great action, fully sucessfull – they shoot down gold like an eagle. But now everyone can see clearly: Gold is rigged.

    1. SLEP

      You are exactly right. All markets are rigged and manipulated, including gold, silver, bonds, stocks, oil, currencies, commodities, etc. In fact, Iโ€™ve noticed that the manipulators will try to smash silver to cap gold, and if that doesnโ€™t work, they will try to smash gold to cap silver. It is a game with them. It looks like they are trying to keep gold below $1,250 and silver below $18, temporarily. Today, for example, they smashed silver to cap gold, and they used the bombing of Syria to their advantage. That is the reason why I only buy physical gold and silver, especially when these smashes occur; and store them outside the banking system. I want to sleep at nights, so I donโ€™t worry about the paper markets by using futures, ETFs, stocks, options, etc. I know that the physical markets will eventually overcome and destroy the paper markets, just like I know that the dollar will eventually become worthless. You cannot put a price on peace and tranquility, especially peaceful sleeping without ulcers. In the end, I will have my physical silver and gold to buy food, clothing, and other items that I might need to survive and flourish. ๐Ÿ‘

  59. chrisG

    Am I the only rational guy here? Didn’t you guys see the strength in dollar? It also spiked up at 12. That’s the reason for gold weakness

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t seen much evidence of manipulation in the metals markets ever since the banks got busted.

      One would have to think if they do it again someone would have to spend some time in jail.

      It looks to me like the manipulation has moved to the mining stocks. They can short those freely.

    2. Emptyness

      No, that’s not the reason. The USD Index was slightly positive the whole day long – nevertheless gold had a big move up till 12 am. The move up of the USD Index beginning at 12 am was only 0.3 % and Gold lost about 1 %. I think the manipulators used the stronger USD to press gold down. The long term downward trend in gold is around 1280 USD at the moment. It looks to me there are interests to prevent gold from breaking out.

  60. Dday

    Gold held and closed above $1255, the support level. The fun and games aren’t over, simply a retrace which will probably be bought up Monday morning…. Note the SM gave back any gains by close

  61. Don

    This week is the forth week of higher highs and higher lows for the gold complex. The trend has been up but with wild swings in both directions. Check the weekly charts yourself. I think the Asians are setting the price for physical gold while the banks manipulate the American paper gold market .

    1. Emptyness

      Exactly right Don ! Very often gold rises over night (Asia) and mostly it is pressed down when the americans are waking up in the morning.

  62. Don

    People are not noticing that a disconnect between physical gold and paper gold is now occurring on a daily basis. The day’s high is occurring more frequently during the trading hours of the Asian markets ( primarily Chinese) while the daily low is occurring more often during the trading hours of the American paper markets. (primarily the COMEX). That effectively creates a two price dynamic. I predict that this disconnect will become more pronounced, over time, and eventually be noticed by mains stream news . A gold ‘certificate’ could one day be worth only the paper it is written on.

  63. Pedestrian

    In spite of my rather chronic bearishness on precious metals there is one possible scenario I am entertaining (and willing to admit too) that is at least medium term bullish. What I refer to here is the monthly chart of gold and the channel resistance line that establishes a price ceiling just a few dollars below the 1300 mark.

    What is looking like a probability by sometime this summer is that gold will go up and test that area between 1285 and 1295 and top out one more time before declining into the latter part of the year. The exact price really depends on when we arrive at resistance since the channel line is declining and with each day the resistance point will naturally be a little lower.

    So I can’t put an exact number on it just yet however it’s not really that far off at this point in the game and given the monthly chart structure seems to be both inevitable and magnetic. What I think will happen thereafter is a decline will follow into November and December before the seasonal strong period begins once more.

    This is just a hypothesis of course and nobody can know for certain what gold will do. But it does fit in with my assessment that gold will end the year around 1150 dollars, just a few dollars difference from where it began in 2017.

    So if you are bullish on metals then keep that monthly gold chart front and center. Charts (all charts) have a very strong tendency to gravitate towards their respective support and resistance zones before bouncing and in the process creating the channels that most technical traders are keenly aware of.

    There is no good reason I know of why price channels should define themselves in a mathematical and geometric manner but it is a fact of our markets and given that understanding it is probable we are going to retest that upper channel boundary this year. Possibly within months or even weeks.

    Whether we break though is another matter altogether. We will cross that bridge when it arrives.

    Monthly Chart of Gold…..Does it seem even remotely possible we WON”T test the upper channel line?
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m1

    1. Pedestrian

      For those reading the prior post and not seeing the “channel line” I am referring too;

      Well, its not because you have a vision problem. The line is not actually on the chart. You will need to imagine its there or better yet, just put your clear plastic ruler over the linked chart so it touches the peaks of 2011, 2012 and 2016.

      And then it becomes obvious.

      The critical resistance point is somewhere in that gap between the current price and the imaginary point we have not yet arrived at but seem to be heading towards. Your guess is as good as mine what the exact number will be since its not easy to read a monthly this way.

      But I’m sure you all get the point.

  64. Pedestrian

    Washer over at Goldtadise.com has just published the chart I have been referring too and conveniently plugged in the channel line you need to watch. I got a big laugh out of his assessment since I also have an ex-wife who most certainly was spawned in hell (and hopefully headed back there one fine day).

    I don’t entirely agree with how he draws the channel though. In such cases I always use the first of two peaks off a major top so in this case that would be the black candle rather than the red as a starting point. Done this way you get a near perfect line touching the important tops and can arrive at a more accurate resistance point.

    Anyway, thanks for the chuckle, Washer. I wonder if our wives were related….
    https://goldtadise.com/?p=399828

    1. Don

      Well, Ped, it sounds like you have flipped from the gold bearish camp to the bullish. You have effectively presented a win -win scenario for yourself. If gold continues to rise you will claim you fore saw that event and if it falls, well, you were bearish all along, so right again. Only paid analysts can perform that bit of trickery, and no matter what happens, they nailed it (thinking of AVI). Given that you and your fans are almost exclusively short term term traders, why bother to speculate about what may happen months from now? So, is it official that you are now bullish on gold, at least for the short term? No need for long winded nonsense that you are so fond of spewing, just a simple yes, or no will be suffice.

  65. primetime

    I think many will be left behind by too much reliance on charts. There is too much world debt, American debt, geopolitical conflict and uncertainty and a tanking world economy to not plan for the unexpected. These events are not earmarked on charts with these vast, “intelligent”, egotistical, all-knowing predictions of bloggers on this site over long months and years! Even 30 year predictions!
    WOW! Most have been programmed to buy SM dips because it will always go back up until one day it does not. They have also been programmed to expect gold to spike and then retrace almost immediately. This programming is evident on the charts and is the trap big money has made. Now all are believers. One day something will happen and gold will spike, and spike the next day and the next. The move will be missed and everyone will be holding their chart waiting for the pullback that does not come, and they will never be able to pull the trigger.

    1. Gary Post author

      I never understood why people think high levels of debt should automatically translate into higher gold prices. High levels of debt translate into deflation as we saw in 2008 which is bad for everything including gold.

      It’s the monetary response to defaulting debt that pushed price up. ie. money printing. That should be good for everything. Stocks, gold, commodities.

      So it seems natural to me for stocks to rise as well as gold during periods of money printing.

      It’s when stocks finally start to move up parabolic and form a bubble and then the bubble pops is when gold should really take off. It’s the same thing that happened in 2009. Gold didn’t really go ballistic until the real estate bubble popped and then the stock market topped. All that liquidity came out of those markets and flowed into the commodity markets.

      Then deflation took down everything… until the Fed started printing again.

    2. Don

      Primetime, very well put and you are absolutely correct. At some point, there will be no pullback for gold and those waiting on the sidelines will be left out. That is what Gary used to say (more or less) but now he seems to be more interested in playing he swings, as he is now, waiting for gold to pullback. It will probably happen but one day, it won’t.

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s just not time yet for gold to run. It’s caught in a basing pattern while stocks complete their bubble phase.

        It’s going to take some time to flatten and then turn the 200 WMA back up.

    3. Pedestrian

      Apparently the blogger “primetime” is blissfully unaware of support and resistance levels and how those are the very heart and definition of what technical charting is all about. Nor that such lines can be valid even on periods extending into the millenia. An excellent example of this is the 5000 year interest rate chart. He is also no doubt confused about terms such as “reversion to the mean” and “rebound to prior highs”, all of which are common occurrences embedded in the charts we look at each and every day.

      That they are often mathematically precise and thus within the scope of our ability to make future predictions based on past price points must therefore be an equally elusive idea and so our friend is ignorant of one of the essential keys to the success of understanding how to profit from known and predictable patterns.

      Yet anyone who studies this craft diligently has better than equal odds of beating the markets and succeeding in their trading. We may not know what news event will come in the future but what we can do is explain to others with reasonable confidence what the charts might look like days, weeks or even years down the road (in the case of cycles analysts).

      And by doing that we might even suggest what “news” is coming.

      And I think the reason that is possible is because our future is literally embedded in the charts if we care to look seriously at what those graphs imply about what is already baked in the cake based on the past. That is to say that charts foretell the news and since I have seen this happen so often over the years I don’t even question it anymore. One day I really want to write more about some of the remarkable ways I have seen charts predict future unknown events.

      Not that what I have observed will change many minds. I don’t hope for that.

      But just to prove to those with open minds how predictable we really are as a species. Mr. primetime is not likely going to be among those whose eyes are opened in any event. His taunting rant is much like I imagine would emanate from the ignorant blood-hungry crowds of citizens who have come to see witch burning or to put a flame to the pyre of anyone who might suggest the Earth is flat.

      Or maybe he is more closely related to our ancestors who threw spears at a solar eclipse.

      Whatever he is does not really matter. Knowledge, once known, cannot be snuffed out or suppressed by merely drowning others in a barrage of insults any more than a Stone Age hunter can put out the Sun by firing fusillades of spears in its general direction.

      Those who can’t learn from the past are truly condemned to relive it.

      1. primetime

        Ped,

        Like always, very well put, spewing your great knowledge of all subjects. I appreciate the conviction, passion and emotion. Seems like your nerve was hit, maybe the truth hurt a little, even though the post was not directed at you.

        You, a modern day, self-proclaimed Nostradamus, I THINK NOT!

        1. Pedestrian

          Maybe not Nostradamus but I will bet I know more than you.

          All the way back at the peak of silver in 2011 when it had gone into a parabolic blow-off top I began warning friends that the ultimate destination of silver would be a full reversion all the way back to its mean of 10 dollars.

          I went further and blogged hundreds of posts in detail about what we should expect, explaining exactly why the chart foretold that crazy sounding low number and you may have even been one of my readers at that time.

          But nobody was listening and I have since learned, nobody really does. Their minds are already closed. And yet I have been correct thus far but the silver bugs being as hard headed as they are, simply refuse to accept the idea and will not relent in their idiotic idealogy of metals despite massive losses to date.

          We had come within 3 dollars and change of my preposterous sounding target by the 27th of January 2016 which means I made a fairly accurate prediction of where the silver price was going 5 full years before it actually happened.

          And let me assure you of this….the recent bounce is not the end of these declines.

          Metal head fools just like you fought me every nickel of the way down and all of you have been 100% wrong in your assessment since the very top in 2011. Most of you lost your shirts if not your entire trading accounts in the process.

          And this despite the charts of the day offering excellent insights into what the future indeed holds, despite established precedent in the known behavior of parabolic tops and despite our knowledge about how long it takes for such corrections to play out.

          So go back to your cave. It’s too late for me to teach you anything now.

  66. Don

    Gary, given that you are absolutely certain that the FED is not going to allow the SM to go down appreciably, what makes you think they would allow it to go parabolic when FED speakers have already publicly stated that the markets are already too high (frothy)? They central banks can sell futures just as easily as they can buy them so why wouldn’t they keep the markets right where they want them?

  67. Goild

    Ped,

    Very good post on the trend line for gold.
    Yesterday, a hesitated much about leaving JNUG shares on the table or not. I decided, after buying. selling, buying. to finally sell and not leave overnight JNUG shares. While, drawing trend lines in charts can allow one to argue both ways, the deicing factor for me is that TNX is starting its next cycle and if so that, from previous cycles, would be bad for gold.

    I wonder what is your take on gold given the bond/rate scenario?
    Do not forget to share some of you golden rules!
    I hope you had an awesome lunch yesterday. In my experience, SM lunches taste delicious.
    I see. you too have great experience with women. As you know they are quite expensive.
    Mine already told me she wants a brand new BMW or Mercedes. So I need to make JNUG pay for it.

    1. Pedestrian

      LOL! Well I hope that woman deserves it. I was referring to an EX of course and I will say a little prayer to the angels I never see her face again other than in the afterlife where she might have to give me an apology for a couple decades of living hell.

      About those rules: You won’t like them and almost everyone here will disagree with me on each and every point. But rule number one is a lot tougher than you might imagine. It says you should limit yourself to a single accurate trade each day and to trade nothing if you don’t have the time for adequate research and preparation.

      There are of course people who do frequent trades successfully. But I am not one of them. I have found my energy is too diffused trying to monitor more than one active objective and if I lose sight I will miss the inevitable turn where what had been a winner turns quickly into a loss or a non productive waste of my time.

      So one trade a day. Make it count. Research it from every angle ahead of time and be sure of yourself with backing support of related charts and technicals. This, above all other rules is probably the most important and it keeps you focused on the objective of earning a profit.

      I will admit I do break it from time to time though and often enough that failure to adhere to a regimen has cost me. Friday was an example when I was in both JDST and JNUG although I am hopeful I bought at a reasonable support level and even if I am wrong the risk will remain low.

      We will know Monday what happens next. All the best mate!

  68. dboz

    I guess I am missing something here. I could have swore the FED announced they will be doing a reverse QE later this year and then yesterday a FED SPEAKER mentioned not until mid 2018 which is what caused gold and silver to crash.

    Either way, unwinding the QE bond mess is going to cause liquidity issues. The FED also said that 2% inflation is NOT A CEILING. That says to me they plan to inflate away the debt as that is the ONLY real solution once control is lost. Just look at history. Repeated over and over. They either get the money back by high interest or high inflation. Since high interest is politically disastrous, high inflation is a hidden tax that is relatively silent.

    So, Gary is probably correct in stating the market is going to stay elevated for this year and probably into next. There is certainly political uncertainty at every corner and we witnessed yesterday a move that can happen in GOLD in a short time. Most could see the move yesterday as weak but if you look at the contract volume yesterday it was HUGE. I really do think the metals could move in either direction in a large magnitude. It is what it is. Everything is going to break out or completely break down as GARY says calling for DEC. lows to get broken.

    As a contrarian, I think most people think like Gary. You can see it in all the shorts on the miners and the total lack of volume in the miners. No one is buying here. They all think it is going down and retesting the lows. That says to me, that up is the max pain trade. I am still holding even though I get pissed at all this FED jawboning that moves these markets weekly. I am not sure how it is even legal to be out there manipulating the markets on a daily basis like all these FED speakers do. They all contradict each other. It is just a massive game they are playing while people gain and lose their money over the manipulation being executed.

    I don’t see how the market is going to go parabolic when there are billions coming out of the market. The SM is the ONLY place where people sell and the price is stable or goes up. It is weird.

  69. dboz

    On top of the market bubble, we also have the student loan bubble and the subprime auto bubble on top of the plummeting auto sales.

    Too many cars are leased which leads to short term usage and a flooding of low mile used cars onto the market. Used cars are everywhere. However, with rates rising they are getting more expensive. Incentives still make leasing more attractive for now. At some point the used car market is going to collapse as the prices fall dramatically. This will leave companies underwater on the cars they leased, and leases will have to get more expensive. Once that happens, sales are done. FEW can afford car payments on 35k cars if you have to traditionally finance. People already are at 72 month loans to get the payments down. They don’t keep the car that long so the borrowers are always under water as the depreciation far exceeds the equity paid.

    No matter what you think, the auto industry is the US ECONOMY.

    Taxes on auto sales alone fund HUGE portions of government. When that money dries up, local deficits rise.

    Student loan debt is even worse as it is entirely unsecured. Over 1 trillion on debt for students with poor job outlooks and little hope of repayment.

    Again, inflation and more printing solves it all………………..

    It doesn’t matter until it does. Maybe it never will.

  70. Don

    Dboz, the economy and the stock market parted ways when the central banks discovered they could manage the stock markets better than the free markets. Just look at dismal GDP numbers that have not been getting any better and a stock market just a few percent from all time highs. No correlation what so ever. Japan’s central bank is on course for owning the majority of it’s biggest companies simply by digitally printing as much money as is required. It should be not be permitted as it is nothing more than counterfeiting on a grand scale, but it is what it is. I expect the same will eventually happen in the US. The rich get filthy rich and the pension funds stay solvent as a side benefit, at least for a while.

  71. Goild

    dboz,

    I read your comment yesterday or so on the $1k a trading day for about $250K a year.
    I looks like possible. Say get $150K day trading, and a few well placed swing trades can take it there.
    Though one step at a time, this is worry about only on making money today, and for the swing trade do the daily analysis to make sure to not miss it being on board.

    I hope you are doing good in getting your money back with high pay back.
    I enjoyed reading your take above on the realities of the US.
    It is interesting to learn about the impact of the car industry.

  72. Goild

    Ped,

    Livermore was a plunger, who patiently waited for the right trade and moment.
    I wonder if you can give an idea about the level of heat you take on each thought trade?
    Say, do you put 10% of your account on JDST? 20%, 50%?
    The more % one puts, the less objective one becomes, the more one is hook to the position, the less one wants to sell and flip.

    1. Pedestrian

      If you need to know what actually matters as far as the trades are concerned is that I aim for 2.5% minimum return. Not a rule exactly but rather a target that gives me focus. I don’t wager more than I can afford to lose either since I am opposed to big ideas and big risky bets. So no, I don’t put anything like 5 or 10% of an account on a single trade. That’s just plain nuts in my books.

      My approach is pretty conservative. All I want are modest consistent gains with the lowest risk possible given I am using leveraged products. These triple-X ETF’s are like fire in your hands if used incorrectly. It’s why I won’t buy unless I am very sure of being on the right side of the trade. So no shotgun approaches, no guessing, no gambles, no fancy strategies from any of the smart Guru’s and no headaches.

      Just plain old fashion hard technical work on a trade by trade basis.
      ———————————

      So here is rule #2

      Never buy anything if you cannot identify a price channel……………. NEVER.

      Think about that one for awhile. If you can’t locate a channel it means you have not done your work on the chart yet or there is something you cannot understand. And if you can’t understand the chart dynamic then you are just plain gambling. If you can’t identify the channel there is not much hope of buying at the bottom or top of a range and that is one of the keys to making this work.

      You need to be able to accurately select bottoms and sell tops and so knowing the ranges are imperative. Especially if you also want to set a percentage target on that bet. In other words, you should already know where your anticipated exit is before you make the bid. Most guys don’t do this. They just shoot from the hip, say a prayer to Jesus and make the buy while hoping it all works out. That is a recipe for failure though.

      So don’t buy anything until you have also figured out at what point you will sell.

  73. Goild

    Ped.

    Thank you for sharing your rules and insights.
    I gather you have thought in depth, and have substantial experience in this business.
    Also quite realistic about what is feasible.
    Your comments, help me to lay down changes for my trading which currently has a lot of room from improvements.

    I gather that the really expensive wife is an unhappy wife.
    I also had my share of hell.

    1. Pedestrian

      It was never the money. The price paid was my peace of mind. My ex had the brains of a gold bug and the attitude of a Pit Bull. She was a symphony of mediocrity and illogic mixed generously with aggression and greed. But its my fault. I should have been challenging the stupid things she kept saying right from the outset.

      Love is blind though.

      Don’t we all learn that in the end?

  74. Goild

    Somehow a woman craziness can be very attractive, because is quite unusual and exciting.
    There is this discipline of psychology and psychiatry. There are indeed some very knotty people around who pass as beautiful and exciting. God forbids us from getting associated with them. They actually exit and not a few, Or the other kind, the demanding and expecting ones that want the world to give them heaven for free.

    As we age we can become cynic or I would say more witty.
    Love is nothing but an invention to make money like DeBeers’s slogan “diamonds are forever.”
    Actual “love” is work.

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