320 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – DIVERGENCES APPEARING

  1. ras

    One can notice similar divergence in nysi. Also, the price action of leading integrated oils like hes, mur, etc. looks constructive. Not comfortable making categorical projections into indefinite future and keep modifying/backtracking continuously. It is best to take one day at a time.

  2. jacob2

    Bio’s? Usually overweigh commidity stocks ie. gold and underweight everything else. Not sure how I got here other then having a long engrained tendency in buying whatever happens to be out of favor. There’s always a well precieved reason for not buying what is currently despised. Bios’s it’s politics. Do Have thoughts that it’s too late in market cycles that these will be getting another big bid and should stick with cyclical themes?

  3. mark miller

    Gary give us your time frame for this euphoric blow-off top and 100% upmove that you plan on holding UPRO thru. Is it 6 months, a year, 5 years?

      1. mark miller

        Well, I will agree that we see ATH’s again this year and maybe 2800 next year but to say in the next 18 months the S&P could be at 4600? Are you on crazy pills? No chance whatsoever we double, from here, in the next 18 months.

        1. Gary Post author

          Well I tend to tbink the bubble would be in the Nasdaq again as it’s leading. 10,000 seems like a piece of cake considering the size of that 15 year breakout.

  4. Goild

    Beyond the outcast of the different crystals balls, correct or wrong, there is a critical matter.
    This is, what one is trading for?
    Each trading goal requires its particular approach.
    If one is managing say $1M then the approach is quite different to a day trader who’s aim might be to $1K – $5K a day.
    It also depends on the risk tolerance which is very individual.
    It also depends on whether you will be making your own trading or trading recommendations to a group.
    Another critical factor is time.
    Things are not quite simple.

  5. Goild

    Ah! at the end, day traders are not different, less, more, than swing traders, or else.
    We are all speculators. We all perform the same function to legally profit: buy and sell.
    That is it.

  6. virji1988

    Gary. Your approx time period of the market bubble burst is almost in line with that magazine (the economist) image with the burning currencies and the pheonix rising from its ashes. There is alot of event headed toward that period.. the market bubble, gold, wars etc

  7. Don

    Gary, why on earth are you using the NYSE advance decline when you must know that composite is full of non-stock investments ( 52%, in fact, are REITS, preferred, closed end mutual funds, etc). Preferred shares, in particular, have been doing well lately because yields are dropping and that is reflected in the NYAD chart. It’s MEANINGLESS!! The advance decline for the S%P is showing a completely different story with it confirming the decline in the S&P.

    For those who want to check themselves, go to this link (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui) and type in $SPXADP under ‘symbol’ (replacing $SINDU), then scroll down to where it says ‘Type’ and select ‘Cumulative’ , then click on the update button. You will see something completely different than the chart Gary has presented. This is a chart serious investors should keep an eye on as divergence between it and the S&P are important clues.

    Gary, as an expert, you should know the NYSE advance decline line in of no value and that the S&P advance decline is preferred given that it does NOT include interest rate sensitive non stock investments.
    If you didn’t know this then I suggest you clue in by reading the following link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-nyse-advancedecline-line-is-lying-to-you-2016-04-21

  8. Don

    Thanks real trader. How did you get the link to copy and paste? Is that available only to a paying subscriber of Stockcharts? Anyway, you can see a very big difference between the NYAD and SPXADP charts. It looks much the same for the Nasdaq advance decline chart (NAAD), Would it be possible for you to post the chart for the Nasdaq? It is a much clearer in showing how the market internals are going to hell.

  9. JJHarmen

    Don/realtrader, Wow, big difference on the charts. Nice work. Being bearish on the stock market with a big stake, I have to admit that Garys chart was worrying me. Appreciate the clarification.

  10. zbigkid

    anyone in JNUG is about to get royally screwed. They just announced the suspension of creation orders. JNUG exploded in outstanding shares, and so now anyone in it, is about to see a massive dip in price, that will have nothing to do with the direction of gold. You can blame all the naked shorts, and shortsellers on this occurrence. (massive manipulators that are not of the retail variety). Go check out what happened to the OIL etf, as oil price went up, but the etf collapsed.

    1. edwin

      Gary told all his subscribers to load up on JNUG at 24. You see where JUNG is now. Gary is a flip flopper and a liar. He is like a snake oil salesman. One day he says oil will go to 40 or lower the next he says it will go higher because of events in the middle east. He is never wrong because he will always flip flop then lie about what he said. A real snake oil salesman. Lots of articles about him on the internet pointing out his true record.

      1. zbigkid

        Premium gets driven up, until it then collapses. Not the same thing as NAV going up. It could be on verge of collapsing now, but you just don’t know the premium. Insiders and manipulators do though.

  11. Goild

    I wonder how can there be much current bearishness ?

    Bearishness, of the good kind, starts to set with some 2%-3%, 5%-10%, 20% drops.
    It sets when fear is in the air, everyone tries to scape except the pigs who get slaughtered.

    The SM candles are far away from showing any type of bubble. The odds are to go sideways as a standard mode of the PPT, or to finally do corrections to reflect economic reality consistent with GDP.

  12. waverider

    Previously deleted for some reason. Gary, just pointing out that everyone here including you, could have TRIPLED their money by just buying non leveraged xme bout 14 mos ago. Why all the fuss? KISS

  13. macman1519

    Trump, trump, trump, say no more. Gold up, SMs down as long as he continues to flip flop and continues his uncertain path with N Korea. When that is settled peacefully, SM rise resumes, end of story!!!!

  14. Bigdaddy

    It took me a while but now I understand the difference between the S&P and NYSE advance decline lines. One is saying one thing and the other the opposite, Did I get that right?

      1. Gary Post author

        Even though the New York Stock Exchange has many non-operating companies and etfs I think it’s still a mistake to ignore the advance-decline line. The divergence coming out of the seven year cycle low was prophetic as was the Divergence at the top and 2007

    1. Don

      That’s a tough call. If the US attacks North Korea, attacks Syria again, or just starts WW3 by attacking the Russians, gold will go up more yet. If nothing happens, gold will probably sell down some but I would view that a buying opportunity. Gold is going up for other reasons besides just the current geo-political turmoil.

  15. Goild

    What is happening with gold?
    Likely there will be a lot of trickery to make the most money out from bulls and bears.
    However, I take the bias is long.
    In the last three weeks volume in GLD has been significant. There is momentum with a solid long green candle last week. I would expect this coming week to be another solid long green candle or a doji.

    There is a lot of money in the SM which is degrading. So a natural place to protect money is with gold which is still at a very reasonable price.
    The SM market could linger a decay for the next three to seven years.

  16. Gary Post author

    This is a classic example of why I don’t depend too heavily on charts or technicals. They work sometimes but probably not often enough to make any consistent long-term gains. A perfect example was pedestrians trading recently. He made almost nothing on the run up because he had a bearish bias. Then made a little bit is gold dropped down into its daily cycle low but lost it when gold rallied again. So all in all it’s just a rollercoaster ride back and forth but no consistent long-term gains. Now the technical traders want to keep pushing the long side when what they should be doing is looking for a point to sell short, assuming one is willing to sell short. The miners were rejected from the 200-day moving average and nugt signaled a massive volume up day which often indicates a top in the mining stocks.

    When it’s all said and done we will continue to grind our portfolio higher. While most technical traders will just go back and forth with their portfolio and two years from now most of them won’t have any more money than they do today and many will have less.

    1. Pedestrian

      Gary, you are badly mistaken. I have posted 19 consecutive winning real-time trades on your site so its pretty obvious you don’t do your homework or read the threads very carefully before making ridiculous assertions. My record is better than yours if you want to know although normally I keep that to myself.

      (A lot better if you really need to know).

      And I might post here more often but your site has a really bad habit of attracting the worst bunch of losers and crybabies I have run across in a great long time. Between the bare-faced lying of Don, the accusations and stupid assertions of Big Daddy and idiotic comments from the likes of Primetime you have a wonderful cast of wanna-be investors who are utterly clueless about how to trade a chart.

      Your problem is you can’t make up your mind about using technicals and so you don’t develop proficiency or skill. Sometimes you use them (poorly) and other times you make claims such as it is impossible to trade technically because the whole market is manipulated.

      Well I am here to tell you that technicals work superbly but you just have not mastered them. And I know that factually because every single trade I made and posted to your site was done with a pure technical approach using mostly standard out-of-the-book set ups.

      So stop leading your subscribers astray.

      And stop using me as your example. I am the ONLY person here anymore who posts dead-accurate money making trades and you should know it by now. You really need to learn the difference between discussions theorizing about what gold may (or may not) do and actually taking a position.

  17. Don

    For all the bitchers out there that are saying that the miners have been under performing gold, I say, do your homework. Of the 50 sector ETFs that I track, the number one performer since one month ago has been GDX, up nearly 12%! GLD is number five on the list at +6%. Silver is number three, +9%. It has not been a good time to be sitting in cash, just ‘watching’. Use this site to compare performance of stock and ETFs : http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/spy/interactive-chart

    1. Gary Post author

      No one is suggesting the gold miners are underperforming other sectors. They are underperforming gold. They should be making higher highs just like gold is.

      1. Don

        Gary, what are you talking about? GDX has out performed gold since one month ago, the last three months, six months, 1 year and even since two years ago. While some think GDX has not done well over the last five trading sessions, in fact, it has out performed gold with GDX up 2% and GLD 1.9%. Show me a comparative chart that backs your assertion that gold is out performing GDX, please. BTW, GDX was significantly out performing gold when it peaked in mid February so it has a little further to go in order to break that Feb high.

  18. Ed

    Don’t play with leverage 3X stuffs !
    You hear about JNUG news Thursday after close?
    Just play with Major straight ETF.
    Gary doesn’t own crystal balls. Quit blame him for your fault.

  19. macman1519

    Gold at 1296, trump is doin his magic, threatening NKorea, flip flpping like a fish out of water, and the Russia probe keeps getting hotter and hotter. Gold will continue to rise in this uncertain environment. SMs will not rise till complacency returns, how low is the question.

    1. Gary Post author

      I still maintain gold will form a top sometime early this week and will hit a daily cycle Low by the fomc meeting. Stocks will probably be testing the all-time highs by the fomc meeting. It just makes their job a lot easier if stocks are trending up.

  20. macman1519

    The fed can control things in US markets, and as can be seen, gold rise greatly when US markets are closed, but declines to modest rises when US markets open. But the trend is up. The rest of the world understands what trump is even though some Americans refuse to see the emporor has no clothes. In this environment, until we have a resolution to the korean showdown, gold rises due to world concern with the lack of a discernible American foreign policy.

  21. Christian

    Where’s my ‘crystal ball’..?
    Oooooooh there it is πŸ™‚
    Gold will top between $1305 and $1320 over the next few days. Day traders get ready to Short like a bat out of hell πŸ™‚

  22. Goild

    Last Monday gold rose in the Sunday evening and precession to fall in the morning.
    The Asian gold rise may tell the take they have on NK.
    But it can be a bull trap, in preparation to hard sinking JNUG, and perhaps punishing a bit NUGT.
    Let us be aware of volume.
    There may a great opportunity to make more money tomorrow.
    Beware of a possible falling knife. Load hard at the bottom; say around 9:45 AM or noon.
    If not there may be the 2:00 PM falling knife. Know you candles. They tell very well was is coming.
    Do not hope. There is no place for hope in this business. Instead sell and buy the at the bottom. Still better, sell, short, and buy. Sharpen your timing skills. Usually that is where the problem lies.

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    NORVAST, thank you!
    Yes, we agree:
    – USX’ ICL was on Feb2,
    – the far more likely event is that of SM down through early May (I mentioned the crash only as the only type of event to trigger a bottom early this week, thus re-enforcing the unlikely bottom coming so early)
    – SM [and USD] aggresively up after the May YCL.

    We are pretty close with the multi-year cycle low estimation: you see it in 2020 and I see it sometime in the first half 2019).

  24. Ed

    No one is talking about JNUG.
    Biggest story about gold last week was JNUG suspending creation of new shares and no one is talking about it. Which is a very strange. I am thinking many here got caught off guard holding JNUG. Someone in other site was talking about all these leveraged 3X stuffs were created to drain a fire power from pure gold trading. So much manipulations in mining shares going, one of these days it will break beyond manipulations. So what will happen on Monday? Anyone cares to predict trading actions?

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      They haven’t confirmed the move yet, but fact is miners are up pretty good from where you sold them. If you keep predicting they will turn lower, you will eventually be right as everything takes a break, but that doesn’t mean you weren’t on the right side originally when you were long.

      I have been thinking we are due for a pullback as well, though have remained long some in case we got the upside stair stepping action we have seen. GDX should turn lower, but it doesn’t have to in any meaningful way, it isn’t obvious to me that they get smacked hard more than a day or two or that we break Dec lows. Maybe, maybe not, but those levels get further away every day. Meanwhile the overall market is looking sicker to me, even oil not so hot at all, so selling miners to buy those has not been the best decision. Lets see where all positions are exited before we claim victory.

      I will use the pullback we are hoping for to add heavily to my mining positions, and am thinking this will probably be in late May or early June if seasonality does it’s thing. The day to day calls are not for me, seems they are wrong as often or more than they are correct.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        My point is you are not making this call for GDX to go lower today, you have been making the same call as GDX has risen 12% in three weeks or so. Back then you took each down day to claim as proof your prediction, only to watch it reverse higher again and again.

        Like I said, of course if you keep making calls for a turn you will be “proven” correct eventually, but all that matters is your brokerage statement. Did you make or lose money on the trade and how much, and what else did you buy or sell and how did it work? That is the only thing that counts, not making daily calls something is going to go the other direction at some point.

      2. Gary Post author

        Trying to get out (and get short) at the top of the gold cycle, and get long at the bottom of the stock cycle. And yes eventually I will get it right just like I eventually caught the bottom in the bear market and rode the baby bull. Isn’t that the name of the game? Sometimes one has to try a couple of times to get it right.

        I can guarantee I won’t time it perfectly, but 2-3 months from now I think we’ll look back and see I was on the right side of both trades.

        I want to buy after the banksters create the next buying opportunity. I don’t want to stand in front of them if they are going to smash the miners into the next ICL.

        I didn’t do anything to my account. I didn’t take any trades. We are still up 130% the same as we were a month ago. I’m still waiting for a proper setup. Taking a leap of faith late in an intermediate cycle is not my idea of a great setup. Yes one could make money, but they could also easily lose this late. And I’m going to suggest that those who overstay their welcome trying to catch every last penny are going to lose big because I think the banks are setting the sector up to stomp on it during the ICL

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          My mistake, I thought you bought energy ERX and UPRO, along with some other 3x stock etfs like on the Nasdaq.

          I agree that the bankers are looking to drop metals, and also that miners are foretelling this, but thus far we haven’t been correct. Let’s hope they pull back so we can get long, depending on how it occurs I might be getting fully invested before SMT since I am not sure they get blasted, it might just be a moderate pullback. After all, they have been going up for no apparent reason and holding well, meaning there are also some buyers out there and more than the sellers at this poing, while I don’t see many people long at all, not in the investment advisory service anyway.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            Gary, did you say you shorted gold or miners? I ask because I recall you saying never short a bull market, so I assume if you shorted you no longer think gold is in a bull market?

  25. Steffmeister

    mmm, maybe Rick Rule and Jordan Roy-Byrne is on to something, GDXJ is a crappy index, lagging alot according to others. You must build your own index in order to keep up with the market in general.

    This is bcos rebalancing and arbitrage trades is affecting the index and fundamentals not so much. I am about to build my own index with 20 miners and I “rebalance them each month kicking out the three that is not performing.

    1. bluelagoon

      Steff – would you mind sharing? It would be a good starting point for me and likely others given it seems these mining indexes are dangerous territory.

    2. Ralph Wiederzane

      excellent idea, I never trade the etfs. You might consider that you don’t even need 20 miners, most benefits of diversification can be had with only 7 or 8 names.

  26. Goild

    Good morning,

    One should be very careful with JNUG, and therefore with NUGT. Exert extra care in these days.
    They are in strong divergence as NUGT-JNUG=~$4.40. In the last peak they were about even at ~$13
    Oddly, weekly volume in JNUG is higher than in NUGT.
    JNUG has been in a channel. The Chaikin accumulation distribution indicator is going down for JNUG and up for NUGT. This suggests JNUG is being kept as a money making machine.

    Good trading to all.

  27. Goild

    It depends on how you see it…

    To me the miners are by no means lagging gold. They have been way ahead of gold and now they are leveling.

    Compare gold to XAU, HUI, GDX in a double axis chart for the last 2 years.

    Then you see a more realistic picture.

    1. Don

      Goild, doing a comparative chart of any one of those against GLD and it becomes clear what has been out performing. The miners are way ahead of gold and have been for the past few years.

  28. Don

    Not likely that it is bottoming out . I just see a better entry point for SOXS coming. The market could rally from here or it could continue to slide. I really don’t know and need to see what happens for the rest of the day. I suspect a rally is in the cards.

  29. dboz

    I love it, the more the metals rise, the more the miners sell off. Makes perfect market sense. I wonder who decides it is time to liquidate your miner holdings when metals prices are rising? Seems like normal market behavior.

  30. JJHarmen

    Thanks bud. I will keep my shorts on the stock market and maybe add to them if the market rallies. I take you sold your silver because you see some downside coming for the metals. I agree. Silver is very toppy looking.

  31. 1970confused

    According to many on this board including Gary?? After a 6 year bear market in the miners, trading at all time lows compared to the metal prices and the general markets, we will have another take down by the banks before we trade higher. 6 years think about that for a moment….makes perfect market sense to me right????

  32. Gary Post author

    Just try to understand how these criminals think. They are trying to manufacture as good an entry as possible at the next ICL. It’s the same principle that was in play at the Jan. 2016 bottom. The banks shorted the miners hard enough to run eveyones stops making everyone think another leg down was beginning. That caused everyone to panic and sell. The banks used that liquidity to enter their final positions and prepare for the baby bull rally.

    I think they are trying to set up something similar now. They want to run the stops below the Dec. low at the next ICL. That will create a selling panic and allow them to scoop up a ton of shares at the exact bottom.

    My suggestion is not to fight them. Follow behind them.

  33. Goild

    I got my lunch money, about 24 trades.
    I continued trading JNUG long and has been quite difficult, as so far it is out of favor.
    Will switch to NUGT.
    I am done for the moment.
    Good trading to all.

  34. Don

    I bought 50 thousand shares this morning of a Canadian junior oil company BNK petroleum (BKX on the Toronto exchange) Clean balance sheet and more importantly, insiders have been buying heavy for some time. Currently trading at 22 cents. Something is up with this one. Takeover maybe?

      1. Pedestrian

        Don’t you get how this works BD?

        First Don tells you about a little junior and how much he bought then you jump in after him and bid for shares he has already put out for sale at a higher price. So you get them and he sells them for profit. Winner buddy. You did it the other day too taking up 200,000 shares of a little company he was trying to unload by paying the 1.5 cents he told you it was selling for.

        Fools and their money are parted so easily.

        1. Bigdaddy

          Pedestrian. I don’t know what you are talking about. I didn’t buy 200000 shares of any company. I did buy 10000 shares of Banker’s Petroleum because as Don pointed out, the insiders have been buying like crazy on heavy volume. I really don’t think Don is trying to sell anyone his shares. You should just shut your big mouth.

          1. Pedestrian

            Excuse me. It was that other carbon copy of you, JJHarmen.

            You guys all sound the same. Not a clue between the lot. Probably look like each other too. Middle aged, white, bald, fat and divorced. Not bad for a first guess eh?

            Go get some exercise!

  35. Goild

    JJ,

    Of course, I have had losing and terrible days in the past.
    I hope I am weeding out my Achilles tendon: falling knifes.
    However, thinking of my trading in a chart, recently I am seeing daily small green candles going up.

    1. JJHarmen

      Since i started reading this blog site, I cannot recall you ever saying you’ve lost money before lunch. You always say that you’ve made your lunch money and done for the day but seem to be here all day long. You should be on TV as the most successful day trader ever. Is that BS I smell?

  36. 1970confused

    Gary it seems that what you are saying is they are(the criminal banks) always trying to enter in there final positions. I thought they already did that after the panic low in Dec. 2015 when GDX was at 13$ and GDXJ was at 18$. Why would they want to re-enter in more final positions?? Its like the miners always have to start form a depressed level to continue up, never a normal correction. Not like the markets that have been going up non stop for 8 years now and when we have a 2-3% correction everyone has a hissy fit???? Maybe the banks are entering there final positions now because there has been severe under performance especially in the juniors. At 1250$ Gold GDXJ was at 43$ now 1290$ Gold its trading at 36 WTF….

  37. bluelagoon

    I’m weary of miners leveraged ETF’s at the moment…..JDST is +7% while the inverse JNUG is -3% – they are normally and should be the inverse %.

    I bought DWT last week but it didn’t go up as high as I expected though I made profit. Today it’s +1.7% while oil is down – if anyone understands this, I’d love to know.

  38. Goild

    JJ,

    I joined the SMT site in October 2016 and my performance is on the SMT archives..
    Briefly, I was one of the early birds on the gold reversal in December and ended up with 10K NUGT shares selling them around $13.4 and making about $70K plus about $25K of day trading profit put me on +$95K.
    On Monday February 27th, I got into the terrible falling knife and lost $32K, by Friday I had recovered about $20K. Then I got again into the falling knife when JNUG hit $5.2 to loose by the next day like $41K. Later I got again into another falling knife, for a total lost of $65K out of the $95K profit. Quite horrible. Since then I am back at +$71K profit. I am working hard in not being silly, this is STUPID, and giving so much money away that easily.
    I am aiming at consistency and getting lunch every day to recover, and have a good cushion before I get into more risk.
    I am also looking for a good swing trade like in December.
    My trading needs a lot of improvement and I am working the best I can to improve.
    Good trading to all.

    1. Pedestrian

      Less trading and more waiting is my suggestion. Why bother with 3 cents a share when you can make 30 by just relaxing a little more at the keyboard?

  39. Alexandru Popovici

    Stock market has to bottom in May for many reasons, May is to early, way tooooo eaaaarly.
    One reason being that te segment of consumer discretionaries and European markets topped (YCH) in April so that we need at minimum a monthly swing high to be able to call YCLs.
    So do not hurry buying XLE, stocks or any risk-on assets yet ! Take your time, do your analysis, put your heads in refrigerators and think.
    Today’s market action makes a great short!

      1. Don

        primetime: I don’t know what to make of oil longer term. I know I would not be buying ERX though , or GUSH. . I just saw a good day trade opportunity to short and it worked out ok.

  40. dboz

    Miners are a joke. fractional pullback in metals causes miners to take 3-5%. Metals go up and miners go down. Really no reason to be in this sector. There is nothing positive about it. Since the July highs last year we have had about 6-7 weeks of upside and then a mild tick up in the last 2 weeks. That’s it. No way can miners be bullish. Metals may be, but not miners. Starting to fear the worst that I am stuck in these for the duration and WAY back down we go…….AGAIN. This is a day traders sector, not a buy and hold.

    1. KHT

      IMHO….You still have options. You can sell and avoid the draw down or you can hedge but, it`s late in the cycle for PMs, GDXJ just had a write up about how oversized it`s become, metals look like they may be rolling over which won`t help. USD is down today but don`t count on it staying down. Why take the hit?

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        It’s odd to think GDXJ is too large at only $2.8 billion market cap, and they can’t find anything to buy. If the prices of these juniors were much higher they wouldn’t have that problem as 2.8 billion wouldn’t buy that much. Higher prices are the solution!

          1. KHT

            JNUG just had another late run up. Look at a 15 min daily and you can almost set your watch about 3:30 eastern every day. I see it as loading up for the pump and dump tomorrow but it`s a quick trade if you are ready, if it turns against you stop out. GOILD might be onto something that JNUG is a money machine and being kept afloat, but, you have to be a nimble trader. Me, I`m just riding JDST and want to find that JNUG bottom to load up long. i think we have a ways to go yet considering The metals are just starting to turn over and I think some bulls are going to get burned on the way down getting in to early.

  41. Alexandru Popovici

    Gold back on a buying opportunity in a couple of days.
    Stock market is in a classical retracement to 10dma before resuming its main trend – down.

  42. jacob2

    That was interesting. Very long (got that right) accept my top sector weights in biotech and oil largely no shows. Discouraging to see the market advance like this and just have most of your picks lay there.

  43. dboz

    Well, I used today as a buying opportunity. May be catching a falling knife though? Pretty much running without stops, even on my JNUG. The action is just too weird for me to think we are going to collapse again. Any chance the big money has been buying in stealth mode? Slow and gradual, keeping price held down when it should have been rising. Not sure we see much pullback if the metals drop? Still is a crappy sector to be in right now but I am stuck with underwater longs. Maybe one of these times I will actually get to move up bigly. BUYING THE DIPS, if it is a bull market.

  44. Americano

    Got word from Gary but instead of going DUST I went JDST for a $3K grab today.
    Other than Goild with his surgical strikes….Is anyone actually holding miners (GDX/GDXJ)?
    With the lousy correlation I can’t imagine. Like a truck you’re waiting to fix so you just leave it up on blocks in the front lawn I suppose.
    I think miners are going to see a shadow of their former investment demand. Correlations too off. Why not jjust invest into the actual door stop itself? Gold?
    Miners=Myspace
    Bitcoin=Facebook

  45. dboz

    I will keep my miners for now as I believe the dividends will eventually come. I blame the entire mining disaster on the ETF’s and machines. The sector is so small it is easily controlled and the shorts are having a field day. I have a feeling the days of the big gains are over and now as Gary has said it will be a slow grind that will take a considerable length of time. So the quick thrill trade is probably over.

  46. Goild

    Ped.

    I am glad you are around.
    Waiting for a good swing trade like in December.
    In the mean time scalping is good. Within the first 1 1/2 hour I had today my lunch money.
    I closed today at +$1251.00.
    So It works.
    Aim at consistently bringing at least $500 a day.
    This is reasonable money for the time and effort here.
    Some day I dream trading your style.
    I wonder what would be the evolution like.

  47. Goild

    Let us do the math.
    A 30 cent run is not easy to come by and one has to be very patient.
    To make $1K one needs to have $3500 shares.
    I think it is harder, risk is too,
    Today in JNUG there were only two ~$0.2 runs long and three ~$0.3 short runs.
    I am long biased.
    It would have been quite hard, and the wait time could have been the whole morning or day.
    Some talented day traders use scanners to tell them of stocks making higher highs or lower lows. Then they size opportunity.
    Three $0.1 runs with 3.5 K shares is more within reach.
    You mentioned once that practices makes perfect (or pretty good), somehow you modify your system to reflect how the market works till you can profit. My system, if I can call it this way, is ingrained in my body, like a pianist ingrains in his fingers playing. Many reactions become automatic given factors like a candle sequence, dynamics of price, the way supporting charts behave, etc.
    Bottom line every one has to align his/her traits with trading and develop proper habits.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Goild, don’t listen to that big mouthed Pedestrian. You are obviously a talented day trader and I want to be successful like you. I have bought so many shares that I could have made a profit on the same day and then had them go all to hell the next day and I end up selling at a loss only to see them go back up in the following days. I am going to try more day trading but also keep some stocks for the long term beyond a few days.

  48. Bigdaddy

    Pedestrian. I don’t know what you are talking about. I did not buy 200000 shares of any company, little or otherwise. I did buy 10000 shares of Banker’s Petroleum because as Don pointed out, the insiders have been buying like crazy on heavy volume. I really don’t think Don is trying to sell anyone his shares. You should just shut your big mouth.

  49. Goild

    BD,

    I have given this link before which I think is helpful for day trading.
    http://bankrobbertrades.blogspot.com/

    I hope you do well. Have a log of your trades to find out what are the problems. Then work out them one by one. Play small amounts of money till you build up your account. All the information one needs is at hand, though is a mess of information, much not so good. Aim at independent thinking, that is where the fun is. Develop your own trading style. Think long term.

    Best wishes for your trading.

  50. Alexandru Popovici

    EURUSD=1.0650
    Mind to the fantastic opportunity to be set by EURUSD pair today ahead of French elections: it is to dive today below 1.0620 on jitters concerning the elections (or rather smart, deep-pocketed money will take this opportunity to shake-out weak hands to buy EUR lower, around 1.0600).

    This will of course render USX to go up and gold/miners to continue their DC decline towards their DCLs tomorrow or on Thursday.
    DO NOT TAKE THIS FALL OF EUR OR OF GOLD/MINERS AS A CONFIRMATION OF THEIR INTERMEDIARY CYCLE DECLINE BUT AS A MAJOR BUYING OPPORTUNITY!

    PS: Miners have to reach 26.5 before topping (YCH) in May.

      1. z3r-0

        By miners you mean GDX? Where do you see GDXJ? Also, i imagine the surprise British generalΒ election in June is going to mess with these predictions.

  51. Alexandru Popovici

    ZER-O, I have no idea about GDXJ – I’ve never bothered even to put a chart of this ticker πŸ™‚
    I follow GDX only as an additional intermarket filter for trading gold but I never trade it either.

    Just like Trump’s election, British legislative vote on June 8 has not the power to change Lady Market’s avenues but only to accelerate or temper its pace on its self pre-established tracks.

    PS: cotton is falling too fast; even if price action confirms my expectation, I do not like it since it trims my potential profit from the short position to be entered tomorrow. Pace yourself, Cotton, slow down on your way down! Wait for me till I get my entry signal!

  52. primetime

    Ped,
    The Pentagon was wondering what your chart is showing regarding N. Korea, did you wite that book yet explaining how you use charts to predict the future? A KNOW IT ALL is a person who knows everything, except how annoying he is! Keep up the good work, 19 straight winning trades for a profit of pocket change. Let me guess, a real heavy hitter right?

  53. Gary Post author

    Gold has formed a swing high late in it’s daily cycle. Many of the juniors and some of the seniors are starting to break down.

    If one is patient I think the banks are going to manufacture one hell of a good entry back into the metals sector by late May or early June.

    Just be patient.

    1. Gary Post author

      You will know it’s time to enter when everyone is bearish, and I’m the only one telling traders to buy. Everyone will think I’m an idiot because the charts will be saying gold is going lower.

    2. Christian

      Too many Amateurs playing ‘cowboys & Indians’ on here Gary, Lol! They have no idea what the word patient means; it’s all about instant gratification.

    1. dboz

      Your assessment is goofy. If GDXJ and JNUG are allowed to own larger miners, that should give them an instant boost since you have exposure at a much lower cost compared to GDX or NUGT. It makes the junior ETF all the more desirable. Get big company stability and small company explosiveness. Win win for GDXJ and JNUG. May get people leaving GDX and NUGT to come over and get away from the laggards that hold those back.

      I loaded JNUG last Friday. Running without stops.

  54. theworldwithoutfacebook

    I thought for sure JNUG would have gone through the roof on Friday. I didn’t chase, glad I stayed away. There was money to be made long the commodity but miners were held in check.

    I think Gary will be right about the late spring entry. Will probably look at NUGT, not JNUG this time around.

    1. jake

      Bonds, JPY and gold Safe haven premiums.
      Got the same reaction in gold this morning. Also
      It is getting late in the month for the banks to play wack a mole, where are they.

  55. primetime

    I am holding OLD TURKEY….waiting for all the “SMART” money to come join in early summer as stated above…I hope everyone is that good at timing this market…I am not, that is why I hold, buy the dips, continue to add positions, and wait patiently. It seems very few have any tolerance to risk or short term loss…maybe money they cant afford to lose. Kids lunch money?

  56. Pedestrian

    If gold does break above its long term resistance level (and that is a possibility if missiles fly in NK) then miners will play catch up really damned fast. So be prepared people as the moment could be here much sooner than you expect. In practice, any price above the psychological 1300 dollar barrier is almost a reason to get out the gold–bull party hats.

    We are just a few dollars from there right now.

    The reason you need to prepare now is that once gold breaks above 1300 or above its primary channel resistance is that technical buyers will step in as that important structural move completes. If and when gold moves above round-number resistance therefore we need all be prepared for a serious move as miners could soar within mere days.

    And this could happen in spite of stock markets remaining weak.

    Furthermore, Trump wants the dollar to go lower and he has stated as much on several occasions. This is a departure from the past administration who used dollar strength as a means to suppress commodity prices (including oil) and in turn stimulate both US and global growth following on the heels of the initial and not so successful efforts at QE.

    Recall that almost all commodities have fallen together since 2011 and take note that the charts foretold it as the dollar came to a bottom in the same year. A quick glance at a monthly chart of USD will clear up any doubts you might have about this $/commodity and gold relationship.

    Note how the dollar hit bottom in 2011
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m1

    So it should be clear that one of the keys to achieving the Presidents goal of a lower dollar can be realized if gold merely breaks above of its multi-year falling trend channel and thus altering the chart itself. The other suggestion here is that oil will also move higher as will much of the resource sector. But that is a blog post for another rainy day.

    Anyway, I am honestly beginning to think Trumps administration is possibly even pro-gold if only from the perspective that higher gold almost always means a lower dollar. From a chart perspective this is one of the ways the US currency can be managed but it also means weight needs to be applied to the Yen first since Yen and gold trade in the same direction with Yen typically leading.

    All of our markets are controlled through currencies in case you are not aware. That is how the Canadian dollar can dictate the price of oil for example or Pound Sterling can impact on the Financial sector stocks or Yens movement turn gold prices where they should properly be going.

    So perhaps its not so strange after all that North Korea is sending missiles into the Sea of Japan after they took an overflight of that country nor that immediately afterwards Yen fell versus dollars (reference February 12, 2017 NK missile test and Yens instant 70 point drop).

    Not that I am saying Trump could “cause” Korea to test over Japan but rather that Japan is the likeliest local target to engage and enrage the US administration given the memory of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks in the 2nd World War. And so naturally that is where Mr. Kim would find a sore spot to pour some salt on where the US is concerned because the US is effectively sworn to protect and defend Japan as a result of the ugly events of WWII.

    I think awareness of this is high in Trumps circle and therefore provoking an unstable North Korean leader or goading him into repeating the test would be expected to also result in a falling dollar. But it would also trigger a defensive posture that the whole world knows about. So two birds with one stone.

    One cannot attack Japan and see America sit idle naturally. That simply will not happen in this lifetime and Mr Kim is being highly provocative by shooting missiles over an important US ally. More interesting perhaps is that a falling USD would simultaneously lead to a weakening Chinese Yuan (indirectly) as the Yuan still has a so-called soft peg to USD.

    And so this is also one of the keys to bringing the Chinese onside with future plans to engage NK in war down the road. Because not so coincidentally the Chinese also want a lower currency but to get that other currencies must rise. So Yuan will be lower against what? In this case it seems the Japanese will be paying the bill and Yen will naturally rise with gold.

    What is not in doubt though is that given the currency relationships that it is preferable at this time for China to support the US in sabre rattling with North Korea as their own objectives of weakening the Yuan are thus met. And that is why we don’t see opposition in China.

    Is everything making sense all of a sudden?

    So if I have not yet made myself perfectly clear; what that February missile test taught us was that North Korean missile threats are gold-positive when they affect Japan. And thus we see gold rising during this evolving conflict even as gold stocks are selling off on weakness in the broad averages.

    So do take care. Gold and gold stocks are not one and the same thing and they don’t always travel together in equal proportion. Stock markets could indeed continue their sell off even as dollars go soft, gold rises and the Yen falls. But as an aside, once gold breaks above its own price barrier we could see a very substantial move up in mining shares.

    So if I am correct that pressure is being applied to Yen (via North Korea) to cause the dollar to fall versus gold then we could well see Japan as the real target of North Korea rather than as widely believed, that South Korea would bear the brunt of Kim’s madness.

    It is my opinion that gold will indeed break out soon. Perhaps by the end of this month. And that process could result in significant upside for gold miners once it happens. None of this seemed even remotely possible a couple months back yet here we are and the monthly gold chart beckons that a retest of resistance is virtually assured and that a break-out is highly probable given Kim Jong Un’s recent threat to begin weekly missile tests.

    I suppose those tests will go on as long as needed until the dollar chart breaks down and gold flies on more than one wing. And don’t forget people… that if the dollar goes flat the Euro will be going back up in spite of the dismal appearance of the chart on a monthly level.

    So Europe is saved, China and the US get their urgently needed devaluations and the world does not enter a deflationary debt bust leading to a new Dark Ages because all of these actions lead to an inflationary future.

    Think about it for a few minutes. What this is amounts to an act of desperation to save the system as we know it before it implodes in a deflationary ball of fire and brimstone. We are probably headed there anyway but not before the strategic players take a stab at a big devaluation versus resources.

    Everything is indeed connected much as it has always been. When you view the world through the lens of money (currencies) the picture almost always becomes much clearer than had you been trying to sort it out any other practical way.

    I see a gold breakout coming. I am positioned long and looking to increase exposure as the break out nears.

  57. Don

    Okay, so PED, the gold perma bear gets it all wrong for months, disappears for a while and comes back now a gold bull. LOL! I said quite some time ago that a smart investor has to prepare for war and the threat of war and so I bought gold and silver assets and have profited nicely for being prepared. Mr KNOW NOTHING Ped criticized me for wishing for war which is not what I said at all.

    1. Pedestrian

      If circumstances change you must change with them. There is no money in being a bear or a bull because that locks you into too many unprofitable situations. So I am only bearish if that’s what the charts tell me. But if I see something has changed I need to adjust.

      Gary made a funny remark the other day. He said he never, ever goes short.

      I cannot understand that thinking at all. If you don’t know when to get short then how on Earth will you know when to get long? I mean to say that day follows night and night follows day. Knowing which is which tells you whether to wear pyjamas or a business suit.

      You can NOT trade successfully if you don’t exercise your brain muscle and make an effort understanding that both parts of the trade (short and long) are of equal importance. I once read that only 10% of all traders were seriously involved in the short side of the market.

      I don’t know if that number is factual but I do know almost everyone puts his attention to the long side of the market. Stuff that goes up makes money and that’s easy to understand. That’s what Joe trader knows. He does not really “get” making money when stuff falls and as a result this segment of investing is isolated to professional and experienced traders.

      But listen up people!!

      Until you learn how to capitalize on the downside of the market you will always be a part of the 90% who never becomes a success at individual or self directed investing. Its just Yin and Yang. As obvious as night and day.

      Forget taking sides. You need both sexes to have progeny and both short and long trades to have healthy profits.

      1. Christian

        Blah blah blah blah.. I have so much to say.. blah blah.. please everyone listen to me.. blah blah
        my big EGO desperately wants to be heard.. blah blah blah! Lol!

  58. Don

    The metals are not strong right now. The dollar is down 0.8% and gold is only up 0.5% with silver down 0.4%. I got out of my leveraged positions yesterday morning and now have no metals positions at all. I do have 500 share of ZJG, a junior miner ETF and my penny stocks.

    1. Pedestrian

      It always makes sense if you trade currencies. Tell the truth I have often suspected currency traders are the smartest people on the planet. They almost always figure out what is about to happen next in the other major segments of the market.

  59. MattyMan

    Gold has underperformed foreign currencies today and yesterday as measured by GLD:UDN ratio…
    Everyone is too bearish on the USD, so when it bounces, and given gold’s weakness already showing vs. foreign currencies, I expect it to hit gold pretty hard for a short term drop…
    Miners seem to be telegraphing this…
    Still holding JDST position – now slightly above water – still looking for a retest of December lows for the miners

      1. MattyMan

        Guess we’ll see when the COT report comes out this Friday… Interested to see how gold looks after last week’s impressive run-up…
        But I am just expecting a short-term move down in gold… Then anxious to get long, or at least trade the miners with a bullish bias

  60. Don

    Neutral. It could go either way. A pullback is overdue but a war would send it up fast. I am more bullish on the miners right now, especially the juniors.

        1. primetime

          Been long, underwater a little, but not worried one bit. I know I will not get 19 in a row right! what a joke, keep it coming out of both ends snowflake.

          1. Pedestrian

            It is a fact Primetime. You would have made money following me since I posted all those trades as I made them in real time with precise entry prices and then followed up with my exits when they were made.

            You won’t get that chance anymore though. The gifts are finished on this site.

  61. Don

    [email protected] (on toronto)

  62. JJHarmen

    When is the stock market going to crack? It’s exactly where it was one month ago. Going no where but it just won’t collapse. Is the government propping it up?

  63. Don

    According to PED, the Canadian dollar has been weak so crude should be going down. Doesn’t look that way. When crude goes up, the CAD will follow, not lead as PED has said.

  64. Pedestrian

    JDST on a daily chart does not look that healthy to me right now. It can’t seem to get out of its own way and break above the 50 day MA and until it makes a move that counts the next direction is likely down. Back to 9 dollars eventually. Especially given that gold is threatening to take out 1300 dollars just about any time now. We could quite literally be just a few short days away from a fundamental change in the gold chart. The surprise (for me especially) could be to the upside. I have had to swallow my beliefs that gold was heading into the dumpster this year. And it is mostly because of the change in policy set by the new President and his comments on bringing the dollar down. I am starting to believe he means it. Not that it will affect my trading in any event. I don’t give a shit if gold rises or falls just as long as I don’t get caught holding on the wrong side of the trade when it happens.

  65. Pedestrian

    Everyone.. I’ve decided to offer a public apology:

    I realize that I can be a bit of a shit (my wife also likes to think so) sometimes but I swear my intentions are good. Yes, my ego is very fragile and I do like to ramble and I do like to feel important.. I totally get off on it and it’s unfortunately the only way that I can compensate for my lack of confidence in life. I have none and often feel emasculated deep down inside. I am – how do you say – a very small man who likes to drive a very big car, and even that’s not good enough sometimes. Please help? If anyone has any suggestions, I’m all yours.

    Thank you for understanding. Carry on.

    1. Pedestrian

      Interesting. So this site allows anyone to post under any other handle. I will have to assume you left the above post in my name Don. Good work since this will be my last here as a result. Certainly under the handle of Pedestrian. But it does offer interesting possibilities. I can also post as you…..or Gary….or anyone else I choose. This should be fun.

      Take care.

      1. Don

        It wasn’t me Ped but I am disappointed that it wasn’t you. Here I was just starting to feel bad for you. However, you do make an interesting point. Is it possible to post as someone else and if so, that really sucks. Maybe Gary might offer some insight.

        1. Pedestrian

          He needs to clean up his site. Too many holes. No wonder he keeps getting DOS attacks and the like. With all the money he makes selling subscriptions you would think that he had the resources and brains to hire a real IT person to do site management. I am starting to think the guy is as dumb as a farm boy on his first day in school.

  66. Christian

    See now I feel bad.. You know what Ped?! I’m gonna turn this boat around. You’re a beautiful man inside and out and you can ‘blah blah’ all you want buddy. I’m all ears.. and so is Donny boy πŸ™‚

  67. Goild

    Ped,

    Thanks for the analysis on gold/miners.
    It is a very good take.

    We need to be thinking how to get into automatic to make big money for a banquet and an awesome vacation abroad this summer.

    Hopefully others can contribute with alternative good takes so we can get ahead.

    We did miss the recent gold run. So let us think and act.

    1. Pedestrian

      Goild, one thing you won’t get on this board is contributions. You will run into a lot of abuse though which is why I have not been coming here much anymore. Beware posts with my handle after today. They are not going to be from me. Since Gary obviously has no control of this blog site or even basic security features that prevent duplicate names from different sources it won’t be my interest to come and kick the snot out of the idiot gold bugs every day. Too bad. I kind of enjoy putting the bugs feet to the fire.

  68. Don

    Did anyone take notice of how the SM sold down during the last minute? Check the charts of Apple, Google, Facebook, etc. The corporate buyback action that used to take place in the final few minutes of trading does not seem to be happening anymore.

  69. Don

    Okay, so I tried to register as “Pedestrian” and got an error. The name was already registered. Try it yourself. So, no one but Ped was using his handle and as usual, he is just a lying sad sack. Now I don’t feel sorry for the a-hole at all. Pathetic.

    1. Pedestrian

      No Don, I most certainly did not leave that post. Don’t ask me how it was done either since I have no idea. Perhaps it was Gary himself or someone else who has gained control of his site. I’m out of here though. Totally not worth it since Gary can’t manage the place.

      It is a blessing in disguise.

      I have a lot of other pressing business to attend to anyway so this suits me just fine. All I needed was a little push to get going in the right direction and this little stunt with someone posting under my name has provided the perfect opportunity.

      πŸ™‚ See you in hell. LOL!!!!

      1. Don

        Hey, that’s the first time I have seen you use a smiley face at the end of one of your rubbish posts. It looks just like the one Christian uses…. and Gary.

        1. Christian

          I like to use the ‘smiley face’ to evoke a sense of playfulness.. This is the internet after all and I don’t really take any of it seriously, even when I’m busting your balls Don πŸ™‚ Your big beautiful balls Lol

        1. Pedestrian

          Yup,its true Christin. Outside of this simpleton gold-bug playground dominated by people just like yourself there is a real world of adults who have actual conversations. No kidding. And since you are an irritant I decided I will keep posting anyway since I have a theory that someone who thinks they are clever cracked my old 5 letter password.

          Well that’s a suitable lesson. Who usually bothers with hard to break PW’s on sites like this anyway. I bet yours is something like “Jesus” but I am just guessing of course.

          So lets see if there is a repeat of someone posting as me again. Their work will be cut out for them this time. Twenty characters in alpha-numerics and other impossible to remember keyboard strokes. If there is another similar incident I will pretty much know it was Gary himself who wrote that apology post up above under my name.

          Christ, I NEVER apologize for anything. That’s a sure sign it wasn’t me!

          1. Christian

            Look buddy.. You can throw insults at me all you want and all day long but it really doesn’t bother me in the least, because I know better. And interestingly enough, you’re missing a very important point: You should apologize for some things in life my dear Ped.. See the problem with you, and the reason you’re such an annoyance to myself and several others on this blog, is simply because you are full of yourself, period. One day when you decide to stop being an arrogant little prick then [and only then] will people appreciate your contributions — mark my words πŸ™‚

            Ps: Goild is the exception to the rule in this case, but that’s because he doesn’t know any better.

  70. Goild

    Hopefully Ped stays.
    He leaves, we all loose.
    We all have faults.
    We all have good contributions.
    Tomorrow will be another day and hopefully a bright one here.

  71. Bigdaddy

    Who cares if this pedestrian guy stays or goes?. I know I sure don’t. Don if you put on a position tomorrow for a day trade, do you think you could post it without delay? I want to get in at a better price. You are quite good at getting in close to swing bottoms. Thanx in advance.

      1. Don

        I usually post within five to ten minutes of getting a trade filled but I have more important things to do while the markets are open. I watch three screens so bigdaddy will have to be content with the fact that I post at all. Ped, maybe you should do a little more posting of your trades within a ten minute time frame.

  72. KHT

    Ped, I for one would hate to see you go. You have valuable input and I mean that literally. I hope if you do though I can somehow find out where it is that you are posting.

    Besides, I like your style…:)

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks KHT. I changed my mind about leaving once I realized that my problem was probably caused by a weak password that was compromised. So I looked into it and was pretty surprised to find that a typical 5 character password like I was using can be hacked in less than a minute by a modern algorithm.

      Holy shit Batman! I didn’t know that.

      So I changed it and its a lot longer now and much more complicated. Probably everyone should get tuned in on this subject if they have been ignorant of that clever underclass of snoopy hackers who get their jollies looking in on other peoples personal lives or posing as them to cause trouble.

      Check out this link. It is helpful for the unprepared (like me).
      https://www.betterbuys.com/estimating-password-cracking-times/

  73. JJHarmen

    Today was not a great day for the stock market bears, like me, but I will take the small move in the right direction. I see XLE and ERX are still sliding. I should have shorted them right after Gary made his buy pitch.

    1. Don

      JJ: It’s probably not a good idea to contrary trade Gary. Sometimes he is dead on. Anyway, i am out of here. I will check in later tonight after the Asian markets open.

  74. Goild

    Good,

    The smart thing is to work together. Yes there are personal glitches but there is a lot of money to be made and that is what we are here for.

    Following on the potential gold uprising with the miners following perhaps a warning would be a decrease in the gap between JNUG and NUGT.

  75. zkotpen

    Ped,

    I was gonna post yesterday: Glad to see you back — with a vengeance. Much as I don’t like clichΓ©s, sometimes, well… got a kick out of reading your tidal wave against all detractors πŸ™‚

    At any rate, much as I enjoy the humor, I also appreciate your take on gold & currency markets.

    I began shifting my own outlook more toward the long side on gold late last week or over the weekend. We both — and many others like Alex — knew 1300 was coming — sooner or later. There was a time when we thought it was later. Now, it appears more like sooner.

    Also, if you see my one little post above, if the juniors are suddenly underperforming the senior miners, doesn’t it seem like time to shift gears?

    I track GDX closely, because of its market cap. But I also am aware of GDXJ — at some point, I may be making those distinctions in greater detail. At present, I can’t see why the JNUG crew doesn’t decamp for NUGT????

    That includes you, too, Goild — any particular reason you’ve not shifted to NUGT for your bullish trades?

    The first cycle off the Dec lows was clearly for the juniors. Seems to me that market tendency has shifted in the recent move, that’s all…

    1. Pedestrian

      Good to hear Zkot. I am currently leaning bullish too and do not think the upside has yet been exhausted in gold nor miners despite some indicators suggesting the end of the run is nigh. The gold chart itself is behaving nicely right now and unless it makes a sudden break lower I won’t be changing my outlook.

      That 1300 number is certainly magnetic. Just as the resistance line whose origin goes all the way back to the good old days when gold was still trading above 1900 dollars. Judging by the hourly chart we should break through 1300 sometime tomorrow. Waaaaay earlier than I forecast back on April 6th when I was suggesting gold would take until summer to get there.

      On a housekeeping note, one thing to keep in mind regarding the ETF’s of JNUG and JDST is that both will see a substantial reduction in their number of outstanding shares come May 1st. The reason of course is that both are going to see 1 for 4 reverse splits coming up pretty quick. Just 8 trading days from now actually. So todays JNUG share of 6.50 might be priced at 26 bucks as an example as 75% of the old shares are wiped off the face of the planet.

      Sounds dramatic eh? I only mention this because I was reading that money has been pouring into some of these ETF’s lately and it seems obvious enough but worth mentioning that they could be bid up quickly if demand outstrips supply. And especially if the gold chart has turned a bluish shade of bull.

      Guess we will see at the end of the month what happens.

      About those gold bugs….. One thing I have learned about bugs over the years is they are a very sensitive group. They go spastic whenever you make even the slightest criticism of their little precious lump. I suspect most are losers and social outcasts which is what explains most of their bizarre retorts and taunts as seen in posts above.

      I try not to bother remembering their names to be honest. They are all alike. Sort of the way I can’t sort out one Chinese face from another. The gold bugs are like a big homogenized retarded mind. So I mess with it from time to time just for personal entertainment. You have likely noticed none of them ever leaves any post of substance. Just the same childish stuff every parent grimaces over when they hear their slow child really struggling with a new idea.

      I would be much harder on them but they are pretty pathetic already.

  76. Gary Post author

    I’m going to say gold comes up a little short of 1300 because everyone is expecting it.

    So far we have a swing high with the top occurring on Monday.

    My prediction was a top early in the week.

    We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

    1. Pedestrian

      Everyone is not expecting 1300 Gary. If they were do you really think that miners would be so hesitant to move higher? Given gold’s strength, the gold miners are behaving with hardly any conviction at all. I had been expecting fireworks but had to settle for much less than I wanted on the last trade as JNUG did not come through with the goods I hope for. It wasn’t bad mind you but I thought it could have been so much better.

        1. Pedestrian

          Not high enough for my liking. Another 10 points will be more convincing and this week is already half done. I figure there will be a burst higher in miners before gold starts to finally correct back down. I cannot rule out the idea any more that gold might finally break above its bear channel. Just one more stupid stunt from Kim-Korea and its probably a done deal.

  77. Goild

    Zkot,

    Good to see your post.

    Yes, I said before a couple of times that I was switching to NUGT as in this business it does not pay to be with the losers. I tried a couple of times to switch and felt a bit uncomfortable because 2K JNUG shares have about 60% of the 2K NUGT shares. It is a silly reason as I could buy less NUGT shares. Though the thing is that the “system” is nicely tuned and I must be careful with changes. Today JNUG was nice for trading. I used to mainly trade NUGT and so with the upcoming split on 4/28th (?) I will probably do the switch.

    We need to work on spotting the next trendy opportunity, I guess some of you are on top of it. Hopefully clarity will come soon along with a good opportunity.

  78. Goild

    Perhaps a turning point for JNUG would be at the split.
    Though it is clear that JNUG has seen serious problems that likely are affecting NUGT.
    Knowing that bad news propagate very quickly here, it is likely that we are seeing JNUG near or at the bottom. So there might be an awesome trade to not miss?

  79. Don

    When I left six hours ago, Ped was swearing that he was gone for good and I see him still blathering on and on and on. While he doesn’t sway me one bit with his know nothing rubbish, it does concern me that some of the less informed have been mis-lead by his superior writing skills and think it means he has insight when he actually doesn’t. A well written sentence doesn’t mean the author has any kind of special understanding of what he may be writing about.

    1. Pedestrian

      Unreal. You are such a jealous individual.

      Look Don, if you want a little respect around here you should show some. And if you want people to follow you then prove you can trade. When I want to learn something I want an experienced person to teach me. I sure as hell won’t go to a loser to get my advice and tips.

      So why would anyone even bother reading what you have to write when you make so many basic mistakes? You trade with 3 screens for Gods sake and you still lose money every week. How about mastering one screen first Don and stop trying to be a hot shot and I am sure you will do a lot better.

      Maybe someone will care what you say then.

  80. Don

    Goild, given all the dynamics that are going on with JNUG and GDXJ over the next few weeks, I would be very careful about playing with it. The most important issue is that creation of new units of JNUG have suspended. I noted today that JNUG was already decoupling from GDXJ and was not providing 3X exposure it should. Depending on how much demand there is for JNUG, it’s departure from NAV could get quite quite extreme and several dollars could be shaved off the instant Direxion begins creating new units again.
    The second issue is the re-balancing of GDXJ which will almost certainly have an impact on the price of the ETF, up or down. Also, GDXJ will probably not behave as it has in the past given that they are going to include many more smaller capitalized companies in the index and of course, the effect will be seen with JNUG.
    The third and least important issue is the up coming reverse split. Yes, the number of outstanding units is reduced by 75% but the dollar value remains exactly the same. Under normal circumstances, there could never be a ‘shortage’ of shares , as Ped did suggest, due to a reverse split given that the sponsor simple ‘creates’ more units as required to meet demand. However, in this case there could be a shortage of JNUG but it would have nothing to do with the split but rather with the fact that Direxion is not creating new units at this time. JNUG has, in effect, become a closed end fund. I know JNUG is everyone’s favorite day trade toy but caution is warranted.

    1. Pedestrian

      Actually I referred to a shortage of JNUG shares on a specific date. That does not mean for all eternity and we are already aware that more shares can be created as demand warrants although it does not happen instantly as you imply. See, that’s another problem with you Don. Your reading comprehension is quite poor and you often just make stuff up.

      I have no confidence in you.

      Neither does anyone else.

  81. Goild

    There is the trend line from 2011top to 2016 top to be broken.
    But the channel theory is also relevant to not being taken into account in that gold and USD have been in a channel since 2013. So gold needs to also break the channel.

    In the short term USD wants to go at least a bit lower to support. JNUG seems to have flattened and is ready for a move up. Same NUGT just hit the daily average’s. Tomorrow might be a good up day with the miners.

    Yes gold may top this week to move perhaps sideways in a channel.
    There is no medium term clarity.
    A good trader trades when the odds are well in favor.

  82. Goild

    A different view…
    Are the miners lagging?

    Take current price divided by price at the 2015/2016 bottom:

    GLD=122%
    GDX=195%
    GDXJ=212%
    NUGT=301%
    JNUG=282%

    Then the 3X miners have a stellar performance.

  83. Goild

    Now if we use the 2016 December low we have,

    NUGT=190%
    JNUG=170%

    Thus JNUG is doing very well.
    The lesson is that JNUG can be very awesome.
    Let us not loose faith on it.

    1. Pedestrian

      Goild, if you take a look at a one year JNUG chart there is currently an interesting feature I am watching. Draw a line across the top peaks of August 2016 and February 2017 and you will see that where we are today is JNUG has already made a breakout above the trend line on a daily chart level.

      While you are doing that don’t let anyone discourage you by saying that you cannot chart with 3X ETF’s. The truth is you most certainly can and I do it all the time although I generally try to keep the time periods to 6 months or less.

      In any event, what is about to happen next is that the price line is near to retesting that trend line except its coming from above. What that means in other words is that price will back-test the channel and should it bounce as I expect then we have a support line established and the chart goes bullish.

      That could happen as soon as today in theory although timing often eludes me and in the real world price usually takes longer to reach targets than I first imagine. My only point here is that JNUG is about to backtest the channel and the bounce that follows should be respectable.

      We can only wait now and see if it pops up or fails. Plug in the one year time period on this chart to see what I mean.
      http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=JNUG-N

      1. Pedestrian

        Here is another chart that implies a bullish near term outcome for gold.

        Yen/$ is currently rising which we would expect when gold is going up. However the resistance line on Yen is more than 3% higher than where price currently stands so it has a long way to move before hitting its peak.

        Why that is interesting to me is because gold is almost at its respective resistance channel right now and the implication here is that if Yen will go the whole distance and reach its own channel line that implies gold is most likely going to exceed channel resistance in the process.

        Run an upper channel across the Yen peaks of 2011 and 2016 to locate the resistance area.
        http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=m1

        1. RTTPD

          Just an aside…..one thing that’s not being mentioned here or many other places that might help gold and the scenario you are posing — is the story behind all other stories that this evil little bald guy, Mcmasters is running around trying to presuade the british, canadians, and other euro factions to form a coalition, in order to send in between 50-150k of ground troops to opose the Russians and try to remove Assad in favor of installing a strawman/puppet. This cant be a friendly development for a downtrending marketm but should be favorable to the PM’s

  84. Pedestrian

    Update on JNUG….

    Well that instrument has been hammered all the way back to its support line this morning in premarket trading as it has already fallen 34 cents thus far from yesterdays close. Provided it does not fail at support in the next while its likely a good bet for today as a bounce back should be anticipated. It MUST stay above 6.00 dollars as a minimum condition. This is what I have been waiting for as an entry as mentioned in the post above about a back-test of the channel and while not perfect may still be acceptable for a day flyer. I am already positioned long and cross my fingers JNUG does not dip into bad territory which is still a possibility given gold is also off more than 10 dollars at this early hour.

  85. Dday

    300+ comments time to start a new thread I think…

    Heres my take on NUGT daily technicals(daily)

    https://invst.ly/3rogs

    The time to buy was around 7.4,and whereas it could still climb higher it is now approaching overbought and in my mind dust is more attractive. The test should come around 10, if it crosses below the trendline i see more weakness. If Garys right and the SM strengthens this week then logic would say weaker PM’s. To sum up possible strength short term, but very close to a temporary top.

  86. zkotpen

    Ped,

    I was also going to post yesterday, RE your comment about the 8 year cycle is roughly in sync with the 400 week SMA that I use for that time frame.

  87. Pedestrian

    Yen/USD drops almost half a percent overnight taking gold down with it in the process on comments from Mnunchin that Donald Trump is NOT trying to talk the dollar down. Whew, well that’s a relief !!). But all kidding aside Yen/USD has only fallen to its support line and will almost certainly bounce from here so we will wait and see if Mnunchin is really serious and dollar strength is going to continue.

    The USD chart meanwhile is still in a very bullish posture as seen on the long term charts but as I mentioned yesterday if North Korean missiles fly over Japan again we can begin to doubt that a dollar devaluation is not actually the agenda buried in the cards.

    On that note I just read that the US Carrier group that we all heard was positioning off the Korean Peninsula is now reported to actually be in the seas near India. So presumably Donald was all talk on that issue and the intended message he delivered has backfired as the market construed a war with North Korea to be devaluative of Dollars which was NOT what we were supposed to think!!!!!

    LOL. This gets more curious by the day.

    Mnuchin Says Trump Is “Absolutely Not” Trying To Talk Down The Dollar — so take that Kim-Kong.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-19/mnuchin-says-trump-absolutely-not-trying-talk-down-dollar

  88. Goild

    Good morning,

    Ped thanks for pointing out about the trend line on JNUG.

    We may be thinking about the same. I am seeing that there is something wrong. There is a divergence which will be removed at some point and that is the price of gold and the price of JNUG. JNUG can do fantastic things and I am not going to be left out this time. Volume in JNUG has been very strong, higher than ever, in the last few weeks.

    I just bought 1K shares of JNUG at $6.16 to start building a position. The downside is shallow and the upside can be quite awesome.

  89. Ralph Wiederzane

    I don’t know about this chart, if the bull wedge resolves to the upside now then it has tremendous potential, but I don’t see why he thinks it goes up from here as we are sitting on the upper trendline. Seems to me, his chart argues more for a decline back to the lower trendline around $1000/oz. for gold, before eventually going much, much higher. I am not overly bullish at the moment, or bearish, and remain 28% invested in miners looking to buy heavy into a pullback if it materializes. If not, that is ok too, I will just buy heavy into the next ICL even if its at higher prices. Either way, I need a sharp selloff to add aggressively because I am just not convinced of either direction at the moment.

    As far as juniors stinking up the joint worse than any other, I think that is better for buyers, not an indication of future problems and that we should avoid juniors. The supposed under-performance is more likely to moderate or reverse than continue, in fact my small cap miners have returned to outperformance of the GDX again the last few days.

    Take a peek at this chart and tell me if it helps in calling the short term higher? I just don’t think so at this point. http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17apr/2017apr18gold2.png

  90. zkotpen

    Ped,

    I don’t look at the 400 week SMA often, either — mostly on weekends, or the first few times I look at a new security or commodity πŸ™‚

    The 400 week SMA, as I’m sure you know, does not change much day to day, or even week to week, rather, it moves gradually. Gold’s 400 week SMA is still rising from the 2000’s decade. My tradingview data doesn’t go back as far as I’d like — the 400 week SMA for gold begins at 322.07, from May 23, 2005 — it has been rising ever since.

    To answer your question, then, I believe the 400 week SMA needs to turn down before gold’s supercycle bear market is over, and that will take years to accomplish. By contrast, Gary cites the declining 200 week SMA in stating that gold’s long term bear market is over and done.

    I don’t care if I’m right or wrong — after all, I’m a scientist! So if one part of my hypothesis doesn’t play out the way I thought, no big deal — I observe under the microscope, or with the telescope. I just hope to live long enough to see how the whole thing plays out.

    Nearer term, however, the slow stoch for gold at that degree is not yet overbought. That needs to happen this year, as it did last year.

    Likewise, gold’s 2016 YCH barely got above the 400 week SMA. Hit key resistance, then hovered around the 400 week SMA for 2-3 months, before finally losing it. What’s interesting to note is, during those 3 months of treading water, gold’s 200 week SMA dropped well below the 400 — once the 400 was lost, it was a steep drop right thru the 200 into the first ICL of gold’s YC decline. You remember early October? πŸ™‚

    OK. Please post your next 19 trades in real time πŸ˜‰

  91. dboz

    Dollar and USDJPY move down big yesterday and the metals do not respond. They both move up today and metals drop big. Running out of time to break out. Still not sure the miners are going to drop even if spot does. We should have a good base formed now at these prices. Regardless, if things do drop drastically again, I really don’t see any upside of being invested in them. Should they plunge again it will be the third beat down in 7 months and you will not be able to consider the miners in a bull market as we are not setting higher highs but in fact many miners have been setting lower lows and lower highs since last year. Miners are still in a bear market. Unless they break out to get new money, this sector is finished regardless of spot. You would have to be a total idiot to stay in this sector should another huge plunge occur. No timing mistakes are getting corrected.

  92. zkotpen

    Regarding the Korean peninsula, that’s a place I’ve lived for 1 year, teaching English to elementary school kids. About 10 months in, I bought a world map in English in a bookshop for the classroom.

    Unlike any world map I had ever seen. If you look at it carefully (I recommend printing it), you’ll notice the strategic location of the Korean peninsula, right in the middle of 3 imperial powers of East Asia. Difficult to see on American or European world maps.

    By contrast it’s also easy to see on the map that, strategically speaking, Vietnam verges on irrelevant.

    https://onestopmap-x7ouldijwmnn9ulv.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/222-map-world-political-shaded-relief-mercator-asia-australia-centered.jpg

  93. dboz

    Maybe the FOMC will provide some upward fuel? Frustration is at the max for me. To see spot rise while many miners continue to fall has been agonizing. GDX is the only thing I see where a higher high and higher low can be seen. I don’t look at every miner so there must be some showing upside, just none I am holding. Now with spot sagging it appears more down side is coming which is problematic when there was no upside. Enough bellyaching from me. I took my stops off. I am tired of trying. If we go down now the bearish miner sentiment will be horrific. There are no miner bulls. Capitulation may be at the door step. Silver never really followed gold this leg up. That is another problem. No silver buying. Physical sales are drying up also as everyone sees the COT and expects a metals collapse like every other time we get positioned like this.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      No offense intended, but your post seems very negative, even emotionally invested to the point it would affect your ability to make level-headed decisions. I wouldn’t rely on the FOMC in several weeks to make your miners work, it could be a catalyst but if you are already in this much pain, is it possible your position sizes are too large? Several weeks is a long time to wait if you are in over your head emotionally, especially when the FOMC is just as likely to crush gold as push it up, that’s more of a gamble than anything. If you trim your size you will not freak out or get depressed when and if they go lower, instead you will have money to put to work at better prices.

      I’m not overly concerned about the “underperformance” of GDX in comparison to gold. Since miners usually lead, it should mean gold is more likely to correct than miners more likely to catch up, but it’s only been occurring recently so I’m not looking too deeply into it. We don’t need to get every turn correct, if your names are already back at levels you would normally like to buy, then buy some. I have seen many of my individual names be weaker than GDX or gold for example, suggesting they would get crushed if GDX or gold turned lower, only to watch them be up big when the other two are down. Yesterday was a good example. At times the correlations are not always so tight, and this is more true when volume and participation is relatively low like we have seen lately.

      We don’t know where miners go in the short term, but it helps to have a plan for either scenario.

  94. zkotpen

    Ped,

    “[JNUG breakout] could happen as soon as today in theory although timing often eludes me and in the real world price usually takes longer to reach targets than I first imagine.”

    While a breakout in gold & miners could occur today, I suspect the sector wants to remain rangebound for a while longer — maybe a Friday afternoon beginning to the breakout in GDX?? Maybe next week? I don’t know when, either — just think more consolidation will happen first…

    I am looking at my short term gold chart — 50 hour SMA…

  95. Robert

    Anybody buying Jnug or miners now are going to be in trouble. Gold hasn’t even started is just about to b begin is intermediate decline. These are usually bloodbaths. I am agreeing with Gary. There is no way miners keep rallying from here. When all of u start crying that’s v when I’ll consider buying miners again. It is jus too late now

  96. Goild

    Robert,

    I got 1K shares of JNUG at $6.16 and plan to built many shares.
    Here is where the awesome potential is.
    There are no guaranties but opportunities.

Leave a Reply