153 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – Gold Topping?

    1. Gary Post author

      Absolutely. The opportunity right now is in energy stocks, but no one wants to buy. Just like they didn’t want to buy miners in Dec. when I was pounding the table on them.

      The majority have to get stuck at tops and miss bottoms. That’s how markets work.

      1. ras

        Some posters have been successfully playing gush for a while. Energy rally is very uneven. xop better than xle in my view. There could still be some upside room in pms for nimble traders.
        Important to concentrate on current price activity and profit from it than getting locked into a preconceived scenario regarding distant future.

  1. jake

    Inventories coming out this morning http s://m.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-weekly-cushing-oil-inventories-1657?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EC_Events

  2. jake

    Yep gold bumped its 1282 trend line, now caught in a narrow wedge between 1276 and 1272.
    Decision day probably by Thursday.
    Which way is it going to break Don?

  3. Goild

    Good morning,
    Hopefully today we make money, and tomorrow too.
    Do not take big losses. Beware of the falling knife.
    We may have a small DOJI today on gold. So around 10:30 AM might be the time to go long or short.
    Good trading to all.

  4. Goild

    Dday,

    Thanks for your comment on the past thread.
    Indeed, we are here to make money and to do it one needs to improve/hone the skills.
    A first step is to identify the biggest problem and then deal with it.
    In this business not dealing with trading problems means losing money.

    I copied your winning recipe:
    ” I have made plenty of money on the short side, its no different from going long. When overbought short when oversold go long, simple as that…..”

    Good for you to have perhaps a natural balance with long/shorts. Not every one has it. Gary for example has shortphobia. Part of it has to deal with the amounts at risk.

  5. Don

    The situation between Russia and the US is very worrisome. I want to be long gold and silver and would most definitely not want to be short either. Another US initiated ‘incident’ and gold could explode higher. This morning, I am going to sell my remaining platinum and buy more gold and silver as a pure play on the metals. I think it might be wise to refrain from taking on miner exposure and will consider selling what I have with the exception of the penny stocks.

  6. Don

    Just bought 100 [email protected] for a short term play on oil going down. It looks very overbought.

    1. Gary Post author

      If you don’t stop day trading you are going to destroy your portfolio.

      Just buy XLE or ERX if you handle the leverage, and hold on for 2-3 months.

      1. zbigkid

        Yep. Great way to lose most of your money. Oil and energy complex stocks is/are not headed up, and if you are going to be long anything, gold is the place to be.

        1. Gary Post author

          Nope. Gold will top soon and stocks will bottom. Oil has already bottomed.

          Classic buy high, sell low mentality.

          You must learn to do the opposite of the crowd if you want to make long term gains. Day trading momentum into overbought conditions may get you a few small wins but you will never make long term gains that way.

  7. ras

    True, gold topping. Topping is a process, not an event. Topping is not instantaneous, it takes time. Price is unlikely to accomodate shorts that easily. Folks who missed the August top in 2016 could be jumping the gun. Hard to pin point tops with weekly charts. There could still be a bit of upside room in pms.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think the top and the decline will be tortuous due to gold being in a triangle. It’s not going to be easy to make money on the short side. It may take 2 months to shed $100.

    2. RTTPD

      The process may play out a little longer than the gurus are thinking if the monkey in the DPRK decides to lob one towards Oahu. I have a few friends over there who tell me folks are genuinely nervous….

  8. Goild

    Yeap, today looks like a short doji.
    Very difficult to make money. I got some money for lunch already.
    I sold 2K USO shares out of 3K as tomorrow it may retrace a bit.
    I will consider getting more XLE shares.
    Good trading to all.

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    I disagree: gold’s ICL came early, on week 12, and we are now on week 5.
    EURUSD is early in its DC (day 2) and JPY is on day 11 –> USX has plenty of days to move lower (and take stock market w/ it) and gold to go up.

    1. Surf City

      Alex, How can you have a ICL without a failed shorter Daily or Trading Cycle? GDX had a failed cycle (lower low) but Gold and Silver had Higher Lows so they did not have a failed Daily Cycle.

  10. Don

    Sorry BD, I was away. Looks like SOXS is going to be a winner for both of us. I just sold my remaining gold miner shares and will by more metals on a pullback, if there is one. I have lots of silver no and the platinum is gone.

  11. Monk

    For the sake of Humility, shouldn’t there be a question mark following your title “Gold Topping”?

    I mean, stochastics can become embedded. Additionally, I thought cycle theory was less accurate in triangle chop.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not a day trader. You know that.

      UPRO will be held until I think the bubble is ready to pop.

      It’s our Old Turkey position.

      Besides I’m not crazy enough to sell 23 weeks into an intermediate cycle. I’m looking for a spot to put the rest of our cash to work, not sell.

    1. Gary Post author

      Be ready to buy. I told you what to look for when a coil forms.

      By the May FOMC meeting the SPX will be back making new highs and probably sooner.

      It never changes. Every single ICL no matter what asset I warn people the bottom is coming yet no one ever believes me and no one ever buys.

      How many times do we have to go through this before folks learn???

  12. Don

    BD:I have no clue where oil is going for the next week or two although I suspect down. I bought DWT for a day trade as oil looks quite overbought short term . I doubt I will hold it overnight. Nice to see you has a winner (again) but I am hanging on to my SOXS for bigger gains that I believe are coming.

  13. mark miller

    Oh boy. If you think “euphoria” is coming where have you been? The “euphoria” phase is nearly over that’s what got us to these insane levels. So,maybe another 10-20% upside. Depending on how choppy and how long it takes to get there, you’ll be lucky to be positive in your 3x levered crap. Shame shame shame still playing with these on a long term perspective. And, to say to hold this Old Turkey like JNUG holders at $23 (don’t say they should’ve used the 1275 stop because your Old Turkey holders are still holding) should keep holding for euphoria is absurd. If any of your subs are Old Turkey they should be in single levered …

    1. Gary Post author

      Nonsense. This is and has been one of the most unloved bull markets in history. Why? The memory of 2009 is still too fresh.

      The ROBO ratio has been moderately to sharply pessimistic all year. That’s not a sign of euphoria.

      Even the last bull market, which wasn’t even a bubble pushed the ROBO ratio to extreme optimistic levels for months and months.

      Euphoria is characterized by a rally of 100% or more in a year or less.

      We aren’t there yet.

  14. jesselivermore

    Hi Gary…
    1) many say buy energy and sell Gold…
    That’s obvious they say and you too…
    Good!
    Isn’t it that it is too obvious? (So destined to fail!)
    2) are you looking at the us 10 y t b? Around 2,282 now! It is flashing a warning and no one is listening!!!
    Be cautious!
    3) you say very often that markets are manipulated, so the question is… can those manipolating markets create the technical condition you are looking for in order to move you to buy or sell but…. suddenly when you are overconfident crash you?
    I mean, no one know is talking about a possible deep correction (or even worse) and maybe that’s why it is going to happen… got it?

    Thanks!

    1. Gary Post author

      If gold didn’t top today it will do so by early next week.

      I would also point out that indicators only tell you what has already happened. We know the metals have been trending up lately. What they don’t tell you is when the trend is going to end.

  15. Gary Post author

    If the coil in the stock market still can’t breakdown today then I think the odds would now favor a break to the upside.

    That would probably correspond with gold topping.

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    SURF, sorry for replying late! Just got back to my desktop.

    What you say is the general rule, the decline of a higher degree cycle is fully confirmed by the failure of the lower degree cycle, but …is there any rule w/o exceptions? 🙂

    Gold got:
    – a weekly swing high,
    – a decisive break of its 10wSMA,
    – a close below the lower Keltner band of the last 28 days (the average number of days in gold’s cycle) @ 1xATR(10) spread and…
    – it happened RIGHT WHEN USX TOPPED (ICH) IN THE CURRENT INTERMEDIARY CYCLE – I believe ICL of USX was on Feb2

    Basically, gold’s extension of its IC decline was cut short by USX’ gravitation towards its YCL (this was the same force topping stock market too).

  17. Don

    The stock advance/decline ratio and advancing/declining volumes are quite bearish today and the S&P appears to holding up well. That means are few stocks are creating the perception that all is well while the market internals are deteriorating unseen. Classic.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually the ARMs index has shown one of the most intense bouts of selling pressure in 75 years. That kind of selling pressure has led to higher prices in bull markets.

      The reasoning being if that much selling pressure couldn’t take the market down then when the selling exhausts the dominate bull trend resumes.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    …all that being said, it does not exclude gold now temporarily retreating some 30% (lower than fib-38 anyway) in its current DC.
    Rather this short-lived decline would enforce gold’s bullish case after a couple of days, when DCL is set.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      The crucial thing here is that the incoming DC decline of gold/miners WILL MAKE A BUYING OPPORTUNITY, not a … “look, guys, the IC decline is here! told ya!” because such a braven assertion will be soon proven wrong as gold will move above 1280 in 2-week time.

  19. Don

    Just sold [email protected]… nice 3% profit for a half day’s ‘work’.

    1. Gary Post author

      Bonds are still building the bear flag. The break down is coming.

      I expected one false break which we got last month. The next one should lead to significant selling.

  20. jesselivermore

    Maybe yes maybe not…
    Be careful… we’re all trying to guess but maybe here we should sit and wait for direction…
    Anyway my take here is :
    Tlt trending up,
    Gold too,
    Stocks down,
    Oil grey area now.

    Did you read fomc minutes? They’re going to sell their bar stuff .. why now? Ideas?

    1. Gary Post author

      Oil never should have gotten past $50-$51 if this was just a dead cat bounce. Price should have turned back down not long after the 5 day RSI hit overbought.

      I think we got our ICL.

      Now we’re just waiting on stocks to either finish their ICL, or confirm that it already occurred.

      The coil should break lower to complete a failed daily cycle but there are conflicting signals that suggest it may have already occurred. The divergence in the NYMO, AD line at new highs to name a few.

      I’m giving a slight edge to the coil breaking lower before reversing.

  21. JJHarmen

    Don, my man, you have been really nailing it lately. Nice play on oil! Gold and silver are pushing up just like you said. Now, I just hope you are correct about the stock market. Has anything changed your expectations? I am short the market in a big way and it’s tough hanging on when the market keeps pulling off surprise rallies. Thoughts?

  22. jake

    The quintessential flip copper.
    President Donald Trump said Wednesday the U.S. dollar “is getting too strong” and he would prefer the Federal Reserve keep interest rates low. Mr. Trump, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, also said his administration won’t label China a currency manipulator in a report due this week.

  23. theworldwithoutfacebook

    You all missed it, Gold will run lots before any pullback. JNUG up 30% tomorrow.

    They manipulated miners down and drove everyone nuts before letting it breakout late.

      1. theworldwithoutfacebook

        I missed it too, was long till last Friday when miners got rejected, figured nothing was going to make them rise. Went long energy instead and holding losers. Difficult times to swing stocks here.

  24. Gary Post author

    A top by early next week if not today.

    It never fails. Emotional traders always get caught at the top looking for the moon, and they never buy the bottom.

    I expect after today short term sentiment will be above 85% bulls.

    1. ted

      Gary, look at the Gold technicals more carefully. You missed it. There will be some minor consolidation but Gold is in a new bull cycle. You got whipsawed for years, and you lost your groove. It’s okay. I am here now with a clear mind to offer guidance.

      I am no longer a stock bull. And I am now a gold bull.

      That should mean something, after being the opposite for years.

      1. Gary Post author

        Yes of course gold is in a new bull market. I have been saying that for over a year.

        We went from Up 50% to up 130% during this rally. We are significantly outperforming GDX. So I’m not sure what you mean I’ve lost my edge.

        I’m trying to keep people from making the same mistake they always make at tops and bottoms.

        They always want to buy when price is overbought and they never want to buy when it’s oversold.

        1. Robert

          Gary I just noticed that gold has broken the trendline from election night. You say most of the times that cycles top after breaking intermediate down trendline. This could be the case here

      2. Christian

        Ted — Gary was one of the first Analyst to call the bottom in Gold back in Dec 2015 when everyone else was screaming sub $1000. I was there with him and made a pile of money riding the baby bull, so why don’t you just shut it 🙂

        1. ted

          With all due respect, I recall many gold bottoms being called before that one.

          I am a secular trader. I didn’t miss much by not being long gold back in 12/2015. But I made a lot being long stocks. Now stocks are over. And gold is on!

      3. vin

        I bought additional golds when everyone of this site was downright negative. I will keep that portion till this site becomes positive on gold again.

        Gary is so right. Traders never make a dime. I should add chartists and cyclists (hihihi) do even worse.

        It is bull. And one can never go wrong if one buys and holds, that is in the long run.

  25. bluelagoon

    My analysis is showing JNUG will likely top around $8.30’s in which case I would be a buyer of JDST in the $11’s….coincidentally – that’s a double bottom with the Feb 8th low. Gold is hitting major resistance today. If it surprises me and breaks through 1290 and holds there – I would change my mind about shorting but at this juncture, looks like gold will come down soon.

    Still holding onto UWT from today at $22.70. Hoping I’ll get $24.80’s tomorrow.

  26. ted

    With all due respect, I recall many gold bottoms being called before that one.

    I am a secular trader. I didn’t miss much by not being long gold back in 12/2015. But I made a lot being long stocks. Now stocks are over. And gold is on!

    1. Gary Post author

      Just remember I told you so when a couple weeks from now stocks are headed back up and gold is headed back down.

      Don’t get me wrong, gold is in a bull market, but it’s caught in a difficult basing pattern for probably most of 2017.

      Stocks are entering their euphoria phase. They are just in an intermediate correction. They come like clockwork about every 20-25 weeks. This one is potentially on week 23.

  27. Christian

    Gary — I’ll be the first one to tell people that now is certainly not the time to pile into Gold but riding momentum does pay off. NUGT/JNUG certainly have over the past couple of sessions and I wouldn’t be surprised if GDXJ tags the 200DMA first before rolling over.. that would coincide with Gold bumping into Resistance @$1305 which is very likely.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sure one can play musical chairs with the metals late in the daily and intermediate cycle, but one is forced into trying to time the top and not get caught when it comes.

      To make the big money one needs to buy at an intermediate bottom and hold on for 2-3 months.

      If one is holding GLD from lower prices then just trail a stop so you at least lock in some profits. By the way, that’s what I told subs who were willing to stay long late in the IC. Do it in GLD and trail a stop.

    2. Christian

      Gary — Question:

      Could the bottom in Gold on March 10th be considered an ICL? Or would it unequivocally need to break the bottom on January 27th..?

      1. Gary Post author

        See the chart above. It was a half intermediate cycle low.

        There was no failed daily cycle. The ICL still lies ahead and we’re going to hear the same nonsense about gold going below $1000 when the bottom comes.

        1. Alexandru Popovici

          Gary, why in negation as to the price action of currencies and gold, miners and Treasuries my?!
          Next ICL of gold will be after USA’ anniversary!

        2. Robert

          Gary 1 more question. What about miners? Was Mar a half cycle low? I wonder if Feb was the top for this cycle or could they still break higher? Gold looks like it could run to 1305

  28. primetime

    Gary,
    Freak out I am old turkey and have watched my minors drop daily for months. Ice in the veins. I will hold and try to add as powder is still available. Thank you for info.

  29. Alexandru Popovici

    EURUSD on bullish follow through and merely on day 2 !!!
    The bloodbath of USX is in through mid May and to take stock market and energy, fins and semis w it.
    Gold UP.

  30. Don

    Gold still moving up in the after hours trading, up now 35 bucks in just two days. And what have the ‘watchers’ been doing for the past week? Well, watching, of course. I guess that is why Gary says that the vast majority don’t profit much in a bull market.

    1. Christian

      Don, for God sakes man! No one said you couldn’t make any money day trading the Miners — momentum is your friend, that’s nothing new. What we’re saying is that no one should be pilling into Gold this late in the cycle and that the best time to back up the truck is when Sentiment has reached an extreme and everyone’s scared to pull the trigger. Easy peasy.

      Ps: Yes it also helps if weekly stochastics are oversold..! Again, that’s common sense.

      1. Don

        Ped/Christian I bought into the wave up weeks ago and have added more on pullbacks. Now it is paying off handsomely because I am not concerned about it being “to late”. That cycle work doesn’t work worth a shit when an asset is going straight up, as gold is doing right now.

        1. Gary Post author

          Cycles will work perfectly. Mark my words. Gold will top by early next week if it doesn’t top tonight.

          You will then get stuck trying to buy the dip all the way down into the ICL.

  31. dboz

    Gary, I know you have said this many times, but is it not possible that gold can just stay overbought for prolonged periods in a bull market? Is it also possible that the cycle timing gets erased by the noise and sentiment can change late in the cycle which propels it up longer and farther than anyone can believe? Just saying, we seem to have a weird confluence of events here in the past week that has potential to just over ride the cycle possibly? Again, I am asking you because I have no clue.

  32. vin

    I bought additional golds when everyone of this site was downright negative. I will keep that portion till this site becomes positive on gold again.

    Gary is so right. Traders never make a dime. I should add chartists and cyclists (hihihi) do even worse.

    It is bull. And one can never go wrong if one buys and holds, that is in the long run.

    Good investing everyone. And, thank you, Gary.

    1. Christian

      That’s sorta true as long as you’re not holding a triple leverage. Personally, I think it’s better to ride the IC all the way to the top [give or take a dollar], and then either ‘short’ the underlying asset or sit on the sidelines 😊

  33. Gary Post author

    LOL it never changes. At the bottom in Dec. when I was trying to get people to buy they said I was crazy. Gold was going below $1000.

    Now we have the exact opposite. No one can find any reason why gold won’t just go up forever.

    Christian is right. The easy way to make money is just do the opposite of what the herd does.

  34. Don

    Gary, when was the last time you had a long gold position? Where was gold at when you said it was going to go sideways and that you would have a look again in the summer? I think it was around $1200.

    1. Gary Post author

      I exited miners at close to the exact top in Feb. Then I made the mistake of trying to add to my gains and got caught in a couple of whipsaws. I decided that was enough. No need to be a pig. We made good money. More than most people make in 3-4 years and we did it in 2 months. Now I’ll wait till the next ICL when everyone is again telling me I’m crazy to buy gold.

      Like I said this is easy, just do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.

      Short term sentiment on GLD: 83% bulls.

      1. Gary Post author

        Short term sentiment on SPY: 18% bulls.

        Which one do you think has better odds of producing a sustainable upward trend?

        Wait for the coil to play out (assuming it does) then buy stocks and sell gold.

  35. Gary Post author

    The VIX term structure just signaled a buy. (That doesn’t mean the bottom has to occur today.)

    Every time this has signaled in a bull market it has led to impressive gains over the next month. The risk reward was 5 to 1.

    1. Paul

      I could not disagree more with you Gary… with the Vix now trading above the 50ma it could easily run up into the 20’s next week before indicating a short term bottom… which would be unlikely… you keep re-adjusting your storyline… but remember the Weekly CCI on the indexes are still showing Sell Signal’s… I am still in cash on the sidelines… I use you as a contrarian indicator… but have yet to have found you to have made any calls correctly so far and that goes back to August/September 2016… and you have the nerve to brag about your record… what bunch baloney that is… I have learned one thing from you… you do not know how to read charts- good luck everyone

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL my calls are documented in real time and I don’t use alternate scenarios like the EW guys.

        If you are using me for contrarian signals then you are losing money.

        1. Paul

          I have lost no money this year or last year… I am currently on the sidelines… You have not shown that you know how to read charts correctly… I cannot take you seriously at all… I am in cash on the sidelines… I am making money… because I don’ listen to you and sticking to a method that I know and use… right now is not the time to be the market… you might get your low in the $SPX… but keep it Real… the $SPX topped on March 01, 2017… that is not two or three weeks for your ICL or whatever Mock term you use to justify getting in early… $SPX has a Weekly CCI Sell Signal for going on 4 Weeks… The Majors Indexes are in: Sell Mode… (not advising anyone to short) per order Weekly CCI and STO… and Gary $Gold is not going to Top Friday or Next Week… I am saying now you are Wrong about Gold Topping soon and the Major Indexes Bottoming… if it turns out I am wrong… I will give credit with Beginners Luck for sticking with you calls- take care and do hope you and your subscribers do make money… but please take some time to understand Charts and considers looking at the CCI and Pivot Points… I never hear talk about these things- p

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ll hold you to that. Now let’s see how the rest of the day plays out and whether the coil continues to breakdown or not.

            I’m waiting on the sidelines to add the rest of my cash to the stock portfolio if the coil plays out and goes lower.

    1. Gary Post author

      The VIX term structure is a little different than just the VIX. It’s basically a backwardation of the VIX futures.
      I would just view it as a sign that a buying opportunity is close.

  36. isavage

    Averaged in more today to short Volatility.

    Think PM’s can explode higher from here in the right mix of fear. But higher probability is we see Garys thoughts play out. So just hedged 1/3 my JNUG with JDST @ 12.50

    USD/JPY looks bang on channel and Fib resistance.

    1. Gary Post author

      It never changes. I’m a contrarian investor. So at tops and bottoms I’m leaning the opposite way from 90% of traders. I always take abuse because I’m running against the herd. But I almost always end up being right in the end.

      1. primetime

        I hope so, cause I’ve been there all along and as I said started taking some strong energy positions and will look to increase. What will be the best way to play the uncoiling….TQQQ?

        1. Gary Post author

          I would love to buy biotech but I’m concerned that Trump keeps beating on the sector. So I think DIA, QQQ and SPY. Or the leveraged alternatives if you can stomach the added volatility.

  37. Ed

    If there is one sector that should identify as a coiled spring, that is gold sector, not SM. SM had its top and that top is somehow holding up until now because of CBs all around the world. SM is the one showing the topping motions that are stuck like a broken coil spring.
    Trumpflation, Taxcuts, Obamacare repeal were the hopes that SM was counting on, but none of those programs doesn’t look like to to become reality in anytime soon. Now many including myself who voted for Trump start feel like being duped by this professional but very shallow entertainer turned politician.
    I can only count on undoing of Trump effects since the election. What was S&P a day before the election day? What was gold price initially jump to election night? I believe we are going to see these numbers again soon.

    1. Gary Post author

      Al I can do is try to warn traders when the bottom is coming. No one ever listens to me, so we go through this same thing every time.

      Back in Dec when I begged people to buy gold everyone said I was nuts.

      Back in January of 2015 when I told people the baby bull was starting I was ridiculed.

      Everyone has been calling for a market top for years. They’ve been trying to pick a top for most of this bull market. I said the Nasdaq would test it’s all time highs.

      Then when everyone was convinced the bear market had started I warned it was just a 7 YCL and that the Nasdaq was going to break out above the all time highs and the rally would be huge.

      In February of last year everyone said oil was going to $10 and we would never even see $40 again. I said it was a 3 YCL and oil would make a major bottom.

      No one ever believes me but I just keep getting the big picture calls right.

      The only one I’ve missed so far is the dollar. It’s been due for a more substantial pullback but it just hasn’t happened yet.

  38. Goild

    How pathetic…

    We gold bugs are left behind, out of the gold bandwagon, out of the rally.
    The obvious classical cup $ handle candle pattern did not matter at all.

    Good luck buying the next dip.

    Though Dboz is probably getting his money back with great interest.

  39. Steffmeister

    #Gary
    “Back in Dec when I begged people to buy gold everyone said I was nuts.”

    Excuse me Sir but I’ve clearly documented my trades here in your forum. I bought JNUG at the end of Dec and sold in January with a 110% profit 🙂 thats when pedestrian was talking about a bearish trend for bulls looking at the wave structure in jdst, what a clueless analysis …

    Who is looking at the Bear Trendline that is still unbroken since the top in 2011?

  40. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, since you mentioned VIX, VIX shows sustained bearishness for SP500.
    Once VIX breaks its 200dma convincingly, it tends to stay on that side of the chart and 2 days ago VIX did convincingly brake it.

    Now VIX may retrace back to its 200dma but only to be rejected by it, so that, yes, SP500 may be seen going up any time but that will not be a buying opportunity but rather selling.

    I repeat: the buying opportunity of stocks and nonPM commodities will come in May.

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