164 thoughts on “COIL IN PROGRESS? – BUYING OPPORTUNITY APPROACHING

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    Crude oil is set to move up a bit above 53.4.
    It will be shortable soon after.

    With EUR so early in its DC, with VIX above its 200dma and with stock-market-bear-favorable COT reports, any rebound of stocks will be a selling opportunity, not buying.

        1. Paul

          Exactly… Gary has a selective memory… I recall Gary telling people to Buy Gold all the way down from August, September, October, November and December… and now he re-writes history says he called the Gold bottom in December 2016… but what he fails to confess up to was is that is was Wrong for 4 months… his calls are wrong on the Major Indexes… and Gold is not going to top today, tomorrow or next week…

    1. z3r-0

      Huge volume this late in the cycle suggests bullish gold talk has gone mainstream and the mass public are starting to buy in. Top could be due in the next week or 2.

          1. Gary Post author

            Seriously, you’ve got to give up on the bear market stuff. Stocks are not in a bear market and are not starting a bear market. We aren’t even close to starting a recession. This is just a normal intermediate correction. I showed in the video how they come roughly every 20-25 weeks normally.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Wrong observation yielding wrong conclusion!
    Mind that that huge volume was last week on a harami-doji week (a continuation pattern as per Bulkowski) which particularly charted a long lower tail –> SIGN OF HEAVY ACCUMULATION BY BULLS AND THEIR EVENTUAL WINNING THE GAME.

    Thus the current week is a follow-through week to a strong accumulation week!!!
    This means that the gold bull is filled with inertial stamina (sentiment) IN PROCESS NOW OF DRAWING IN AS NEW BULLS THE BEARS WHO GOT DEFEATED LAST WEEK.

    1. Gary Post author

      The juniors are down a little over 2% this morning. That’s why JDST is up.

      I warned weeks ago this would happen. I said the miners would not confirm any new highs in gold.

      This has always been a significant warning sign at intermediate tops.

      1. CaliJoe

        Gary, you have a very linear, monolithic perspective on why things move. You rely on sentiments and a couple of oscillators (which by the way have failed you in the past HUGELY) I take your approach with a grain of salt especially when you vehemently take a strong view of something. One of these days you will wake up and Gold will be up by 50 bucks and stocks other way.

        1. Paul

          exactly… Gary has his reasons… I think he has good intentions… I am on the sidelines… raising cash… I think the gold move is strong (have no position at this time) I am waiting to see a good pullback in the $SPX… I like the leveraged ETF’s TQQQ, UPRO, TNA, FAS… but they are not ready yet… Weekly CCI and STO are in Sell Signals… all these leveraged ETF’s are trading Below the Monthly Pivots… and have already traded close to S1 levels… perhaps that is what Gary is looking for… it’s possible his coil may lead to further breakdown to S2 levels TQQQ- 80.00. UPRO- 86.30, TNA- 85.50, FAS- 34.70- good luck- p

  3. GodoftheMachine

    I offer the following piece as absolute proof that gold will either go up or down in price.

    The yellow metal found buyer’s as expected from the blue box area ( 1254.43-1246.54) after forming a low on 3/10 (1246.9). Metal has now broken above the previous wave (w) peak (1270.6) thus suggesting the next leg higher has started already. The rally from (1246.9) low could be unfolding as 5 waves impulsive waves in Minutte wave (a) higher, where it could have ended the Minutte wave (iv) at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1271.6)from which it managed to bounce higher to resume the move to the upside looking to reach the minimum target of Minutte wave (v)at the inverse 1.236 – 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Minutte wave (iv) that comes at 1281.6-1284.6 area. The next opportunity in the metal will comes after ending the 5 waves from 1246.6 low, then metal should see a 3 wave pullback in Minutte wave (b) to correct that cycle before doing another 5 waves higher in Minutte wave (c) of a Zigzag structure ( unless it turns out to be a flat correction from 4/07 peak and corrects 3/31 cycle).

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL sounds like Avi.

      I’m not hedging my bets. I’m telling you it’s too late in the intermediate cycle to be buying gold.

      If you already won gold from lower prices you can hang on, but trail a stop.

      The next buying opportunity will come when the weekly charts get oversold again. I will be telling everyone to buy, and all the people that are crazy bullish right now will of course be telling me I’m crazy.

      It never changes. sigh!

  4. Gary Post author

    Watch the euro closely here. If it keeps moving down into a DCL it could break the intermediate trend line. That would signal that the dollar has completed its ICL (as hard as that is for me to believe without having a bloodbath phase).

    Now you know why I never never never trade currencies.

  5. Gary Post author

    Like I said. Gold either topped last night (good chance).

    Or it will top early next week.

    It’s glaringly obvious when you see the single minded, almost angry calls for gold to the moon occurring late in the intermediate cycle.

    But let me again assure everyone gold is absolutely in a new bull market. This time when I tell you to buy at the bottom when everyone thinks I’m wrong…listen to me.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    EURO confirmed its new DC yesterday. It may move sideways till mid next week.
    This sideways move of the euro will allow USX to chart a HCL and be the premise for gold/miners/treasuries declining to their DCLs before resuming higher while EUR jumps along with JPY sending USX deep –> stock market down and gold up through May.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      the incoming correction of defensives is a natural retracement to their break-out lines and will be a buying opportunity through May.

      PS: gold’s sentiment in May will be minimum 95% bullish and COT report ultra-ultra-bearish (YCH) while USX’ will become very bullish at its YCL.

  7. Don

    Good morning all. I am looking to try my hand at another day trade, nothing to crazy in terms of dollars. I hope we get a bit of a sell off in silver and gold so I can add to my longer term positions. I don’t believe we have seen the end this up cycle just yet. I have noticed that my penny gold miners are catching a bid so That tells me the speculators are just starting to get interested. We need the speculators to push gold higher.

  8. mark miller

    Gary is right about Gold needing a pullback but grossly wrong about a blow-euphoric 100% upmove in the SM from here. Gary please go on the record that you and your subs will be holding UPRO until we get another 100% in the SM! lol lol lol! Give me a break. These are the same grandiose predictions (with conviction) you were making about Gold last summer …. not only were you wrong but you were not able to hold on. You won’t hold onto to UPRO long either.

    Be a little more practical.

  9. 1970confused

    You’ve said it before Gary, just CRIMINAL what they are doing with the miners????? I just do not understand the logic. Seems like they have a pair trade now long the metals short the miners

  10. dboz

    Call me a stupid dumb noob but I think this is the banks doing the long slow draw and accumulation while keeping price low. There is no way miners should be dropping here especially when they never really went up. Who would be selling and why? JNUG is cheaper now than back in January when I sold. I may be on the verge of loading up on JNUG. Something smells fishy here and I say it could be the storm before the calm. After this shake out, I suspect things will get easier? Dunno but I think it is time to start building my JNUG position again.

      1. dboz

        Gary said gold is in week 17 of 23 or so. You don’t think GOLD can move up another $100 or so in 6 weeks? At some point, the miners will be considered an absolute steal. Miners are still WAY UNDERVALUED from a few decades ago. I assume because most are brainwashed the metals are worthless? At some point, they should make a HUGE move. Maybe they won’t. Seems weird that small little companies will be selling a product for MASSIVE profit yet they are undesirable, while a company that sells nothing (FACEBOOK) is in serious demand. Again, I am not trying to out think things, just trying to be real.

        1. Christian

          First off, this ‘PED’ fellow still thinks we’re in a bear market and I most certainly don’t. I’m very much a bull.. just not a dumb bull who thinks Gold is just gonna keep going up, up, up, and…. [wait for it] UP!

          Miners [especially the Juniors] continue to lag. Gold’s intermediate cycle is running long in the tooth and Sentiment is way too optimistic. Wait for a correction before you pile into the Miners as they could re-test and possibly break their March low.

          If you’re day trading the Miners.. I would play NUGT and stay away from JNUG.

  11. vin

    I bought additional golds when everyone of this site was downright negative. I will keep that portion till this site becomes positive on gold again.

    Gary is so right. Traders never make a dime. I should add chartists and cyclists (hihihi) do even worse.

    It is bull. And one can never go wrong if one buys and holds, that is in the long run.

    Good investing everyone. And, thank you, Gary.

    1. Gary Post author

      Son you aren’t even close to us with a buy and hold strategy.

      We are significantly out performing GDX and that even assumes you had a crystal ball and bought at the exact bottom in 2016.

        1. Gary Post author

          The only way you could make money shorting us is by day trading. Or very short term trading. Our portfolios are up so it would be impossible to have made money by doing the opposite of me other than just short term trades against my entries.

          You will never make any long term money that way.

          You will make money holding Old Turkey but there will be painful drawdowns along the way.

      1. vin

        btw Gary I still have the jnug I bought on your advise. I am waiting for them to go to $1000 each one day, though I will be happy at $500. Has your advise changed on that matter?

        1. Gary Post author

          Absolutely Jung is going to at least $500. You will have to hold it all the way to the top of the bubble phase in gold.

          It’s not going to be an easy ride. In fact it will be almost impossible to hang on because there will be many big drawdowns along the way. But if you can make it to the bubble top you will make a huge chunk of money. But you will have to get out at the top. Don’t overstay your welcome like the bugs are doing right now.

          This is why very few ever make any money during a bubble. Their emotions prevent them from selling before the top. We are seeing a form of it right now.

          1. vin

            I plan to hold it and that is for a loooong time, until at least 2020 or may be even 2022. And, if it does not happen by that time then I would say that your words have no meaning. By the way I would be impressed with your abilities even it reached $150 in that time frame.

            I took this position based on your advise. Don’t get me wrong. It was my decision and I am responsible for my actions. But, I wanted to prove it to myself. And, what better way to do than to risk one’s own money. Either way it will be a learning experience for me. btw, my purchase price is about 11.22 or so, just to remind you.

          2. Gary Post author

            I think you will make a lot of money on the position but it won’t be easy to hang onto for the full ride.

            Dell went up 20,000% but I can tell you almost no one was able to hang onto it for the full ride.

        2. Paul

          VIN you never see those prices 500 or 1000 in JNUG… nor will will see 150… not in a lifetime… I am just being honest… you might see 14 -21 this year… and that would be really pushing it since JNUG is lagging gold prices… Cold Turkey means you got played… sorry about that- p Any adviser that advises you to hold during draw downs to make big money is just playing head games with you… this is not a winning strategy… and tells you the timing methods is flawed- take care- p

  12. Bigdaddy

    Don, following your lead. I picked up some ZJG at 9.12. Do you think it is a good idea to buy into SOXS again? it has dropped quite a bit today.

  13. Gary Post author

    AAPL, GOOG, BKX and SOX all green.

    This could prevent the coil from breaking down.

    This is why I keep stressing not to sell short. Just look for buying opportunities. Shorting is a waste of time and money.

    Not saying stocks are a buy just yet. But they are getting close.

    1. vin

      Lucky you. Gary says that if you hold it for long enough they will rise to $500 or even $1000 each, provided you hold them long enough.

      And, certainly that will buy you a nice lunch or at least a breakfast. We must all thank Gary for helping us make so much money.

  14. Don

    Pedestrian, quit playing games by changing your handle to Christian. You are still the same know nothing clown that we have come to love and laugh at. BTW, did you act on that hot tip I offered you a while back on a penny stock? You could have has all you wanted at 1 cent and now it’s up 50% to 1.5 cents on heavy volume over the past few days. I have a million shares so every half cent gain is $5000.

  15. dboz

    MONSTER volume in JNUG today. Already over 25 million shares the first hour. Either this is distribution before the plunge or loading up before the launch.

  16. Gary Post author

    We are also seeing another classic mistake. Trades assume that since one person has made a few correct calls recently that he knows what he’s doing so they start following him right as he’s about to have a cold steak.

    You need to do the opposite. Find the guru that’s been on a cold streak and follow him. It’s time for him to get hot. You should probably start listening to Ped now.

    1. JJHarmen

      Gary, don’t knock someone else’s success. Since I have been watching this blog you have made some real blooper calls . You said oil would be testing $40 and it promptly turned around and went up. Now you say to buy energy! You said that the bond market was going to sell off and it promptly turned around and has gone up. You said that gold was going to do nothing till the summer and it has soared. You have said the dollar was going to go down and it did go down, but just a little bit.
      It seems like your subscribers are always having to wait a long time for one of your predictions to work out and if they don’t, you just switch sides like you did with oil. Not impressed.

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL you’ve got to be kidding. I begged people not to short oil. Just because I expect it to go lower doesn’t mean something can’t happen to shorten the cycle.

        I keep saying this over and over but no one ever listens to me. Forget about shorting. It’s too hard to make money on the short side. Just look for long entries. If they come early than you expect so be it. At least you didn’t lose any money holding a short too long.

        I will not be shorting gold. No way no how. Even if I could get the top right it’s going to be too erratic moving down into the ICL, I probably wouldn’t be able to hold the shorts and make any money.

  17. Don

    BD, all I can tell you is that although SOXS is down today, higher numbers will be in the cards but maybe just not today. The market is pretending it wants to go up and given we have a long weekend, the market may close up today but who knows what might happen when the US wants to start wars all over the globe. Scarey shit, in my opinion. I think long gold/silver and short market is still the best short term play.

  18. Don

    JJ: I posted the name once here for Ped a while back but I don’t want to be seen as a ‘pumper’ so if you want it, I will email the name to you.

  19. Don

    Gary, “You should probably start listening to Ped now.” You can’t be serious. Ped had a couple of lucky day trades but is macro outlook has been a joke.

    1. Gary Post author

      You have had a couple of lucky trade days as well. But remember how you’ve been trying to short the stock market all the way up?

      Everyone gets on a streak now and then. The key is to step away while they are still hot and go find the coldest guru. He’s the one most likely to call the next streak. Why? Because markets change. When someone gets hot they expect to stay hot and they expect the trend they are riding to stay in place.

      Right now is a classic example gold is 17 weeks into an intermediate cycle and 24 days into a daily cycle yet the gold bugs expect it to continue indefinitely.

      1. Don

        Gary: I am shorting the market because I know how crashes play out. Years of advances are wiped out in a few weeks. I am not worried at all about my SM shorts. Your call for a parabolic move for the SM reminds me a great deal of another parabolic move you were so sure of about a year ago in the biotecks. You couldn’t have been more wrong as they have badly underperformed since.

        1. Gary Post author

          It’s way too early for biotechs to start a parabolic run. Don’t know why you think it would start now. They haven’t even broken out to new highs yet.

          I’m concerned about biotech because Trump keeps beating on the sector. Now I’m afraid of it.

          1. Don

            I never said biotechs were about to start a parabolic run, you did, several times, months ago. You sound confused.

          2. Gary Post author

            Show me were I said biotech was about to start a parabolic run.

            I think what I said was that I expected them to lead the bubble phase of the bull market, and they may still. But I’m nervous about them right now because Trump keeps beating on them. If congress legislates away their profits then it could kill them.

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    All right, crude oil got to the 53.4 area (high @ 53.39) where it got rejected.
    I’ll go short on the swing low, I have a short-stop placed @ 52.70

  21. primetime

    Traders here must take responsibility for their own trading actions. Sounds like a bunch of whining little brats. ” Gary made me do it, its his fault.” It is your move and your ultimate decision, either listen to him or not, but ultimately you are responsible for your own account.

  22. dboz

    Just another possible scenario I am considering. MINERS sold off way ahead of any metals dip and have surely lagged the upside metals run here. It could be possible that a metals sell off may not create a large sell off in miners.

  23. Bigdaddy

    Maybe harmen is onto something about Garys predictions. XLE and ERX, which I considered buying, have both headed down for the past three days. LOL!!

  24. Goild

    The market will be closed tomorrow.
    So I had to make money for today and tomorrow πŸ™‚

    Yes, I did profit from the falling knife πŸ™‚
    And going long; how silly.

  25. Gary Post author

    It just depends on whether the coil breaks lower or not. If it does then everything will probably get pulled down for a few days and that includes oil and oil stocks. But it will be brief as coil break downs usually exhaust in 3 – 5 days.

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    Happy Easter to everyone!
    I am leaving my desktop (oil short-stop order set, though) to get ready for the family reunions on Easter parties on Sunday and Monday.
    Singing religious songs, baby goat foods, two traditional cakes, tzuica (Romanian brandy) & western alcohol will keep us busy.
    Enjoy the time w/ your families!
    Cheers!

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Killing baby goats just for a pile-up meal, is there nothing else to eat and enjoy? Something humans need to seriously think about for many reasons.

  27. JJHarmen

    Okay Don, I bought two hundred thousand shares at 1.5 cents. Almost three million traded today so far. If it jumps , how do you know when to sell?

  28. Don

    The dollar is rising and the PMs are not selling down. There has been no selling short by the paper gold cartel. All bullish. I think gold is going much higher before we a see a correction. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the miners come raring back.

  29. Don

    JJ: Penny stocks are strictly gambling and knowing when to sell is tough. Let’s see what happens before we worry about selling. it may go no where although the high volume of the past few days would indicate that a pump up is in the starting phase.

  30. Robert

    Looks like Gary missed out on this move in gold. Yes its late in the cycle but was a pretty powerful upmove I doubt it gives back much now. Maybe 30 bucks, 1250 pullback

    1. Robert

      Ha it’s crazy I doubt much ppl caught this move. Cycle this cycle that, all these indicators have not worked. Gold is getting harder and harder to trade. Only day traders making reliable money from this volatility

    1. RTTPD

      16 years straight and most Americans have been completely desensitized to it…..to such a point that it is almost completely ignored as a metric.

      You can see it as clear as day when visualizing the pseudo-quants here posting on this board, scratching their heads, wondering why something is wrong with a cycle or a some chart they aspire to.

      They could oughta visit the DMZ or see the aerial photographs of the many thousands of DPRK artillery pieces just upwind from SK.

  31. cazabrujas

    Seriously guys, put your charts away!!! You should of have gotten into gold right after the US decided that the Syria attack was not a “one-off”. Technicals won’t matter on the near future. Now that the S is about to hit the fan in Korea, getting into gold is a no-brainer. All this instability is not going away soon, so I think gold has room to run.

  32. cazabrujas

    Oh, bd one more thing. If you are going to play miners, go for the seniors, there is weird stuff going on with the Juniors. I read that the ETF was getting restructured or something like that.

  33. JJHarmen

    The stock market is slowly deteriorating. Kinda reminds me of when Lehman failed . There was no immediate crash, just a slow bleed after shooting up initially.

  34. bluelagoon

    Gold and silver are really the only things up now – SM, oil all down. Any guesses as to when oil will come back? perhaps when the mkts finish correcting? Funny thing that DWT and DGAZ are down today while DRIP is up. Can’t understand these ETF’s!

    1. dboz

      Or JNUG down over 10%. No way that can be normal market activity. Who is selling miners at that clip when gold was up another $10 and broke out and silver was over 18.50? Not everyone is a skilled trader that is thinking like GARY that this is going down on Monday? I think they are letting the metals run since it is just paper anyway and crushing the sentiment in miners to keep from having a repeat of 2016 when things were getting out of control. We are $90 short of last years high in gold and miners are WAY below where they were. Maybe silver lagging is the issue and the canary in the gold mine? Regardless, I did make some moves as I am sick of holding these things and getting no rewards for massive risk, getting the direction correct, getting a huge magnitude run up in metals and getting zero rewards from owning miners. JNUG at 6.80?????? It was at that level the first week of January when gold was barely $1200. The volume is all but gone. I think Gary is probably right, everyone is loaded into the SM and there are only gold bugs, shorters and day traders bashing these miners.

  35. Don

    Nothing like a declining SM to warm a bears heart. I am probably the only one here that is short other than JJahrmen. If their is no rally into the close, next week could be ugly . The war drums are beating loudly. Watch gold and silver for a massive move up at some point.

  36. bluelagoon

    Next stop is 2301 for the S&P…..the question is how deep is this correction going to be….just 3-5 days as Gary is postulating…..or are we getting the traditional “sell in May” in April because we haven’t hit any weakness so far this year?

  37. Bigdaddy

    My ZJG closed 2 cents above my buy price. I am going to hang on to it. I actually have made money this week. I really wish i had not sold SOXS yesterday or at least bought it back this morning. Up another 2% today. The market sold off into the close so does that mean a big slam down on Monday?

    1. Don

      bigdaddy: I also kept my ZLG (up a nickle from my buy in price) although I am not overly enthusiastic about the miners right now. It’s not a big position so no sweat. The Canadian juniors did not take as big of a hit as their American counterparts. I prefer the metals and kept all my double leveraged silver. I see further gains in the following weeks for gold and silver. And, what did I tell you about SOXS? I added to my position, now at 2000 shares.

  38. dboz

    Metals up big and strong. Miners mushy, weak and still at end of January levels. Not happy, but I chose to be in this sector. Ridiculous to get punished like this when the next quarter earnings are going to be significant.

  39. JJHarmen

    Guess we can add XLE and ERX , down 1.8% and 5.6% respectively, to list of things that turned to crap immediately after Gary puts out a buy call. UPRO down quite a bit from his buy point too. Has it always been this way or is he just running a bad streak of luck?

    1. bluelagoon

      I find his timing is usually not great and so he normally doesn’t get the lowest price, but he seems to catch the bigger trend and therefore manages to get out eventually in profit. Except for a few big debacles like buying JNUG last year at an ICH killed some people.

  40. Strike

    For at least the near term I am cautious on my gold outlook. The recent huge divergence between GDXJ/JNUG and $GOLD has got to be bearish. Add to that overbought RSI and slo sto on the daily, and we have a recipe for a decent drop. JMHO.
    Conversely, SPX is the mirror image chartwise. I don’t know about a yearly double, but a nice pop shorter term is at least is in order.

  41. primetime

    Most seem awful giddy for a 3-4% SM drop. Most must have forgotten what a real downtrend feels like. Will this even reach true correction territory….1/2 % drops do not seem much like an impending crash.

  42. bluelagoon

    Today – it looks like the S&P coil has broken below the lower daily trendline which means next week is very likely a red week. So S&P is likely headed to 2300 next. Then if that fails, it’ll head towards the weekly trendline ~the 200DMA (2226 at the moment)- so that’s key support to watch also. I am tempted to short but am reminded of Gary’s cautionary words about PPT.

    For what it’s worth, I think SOXS is going to take a breather before it heads further up. I believe oil is heading lower too with the stock market. I regret getting on option on COP today but Gary’s call to get an Aug expiry should allow me to get out with a profit.

    1. Don

      Blue: SOXS is well below it’s 200 day moving average of $13.98 and the volume has increased dramatically over the past several weeks. It has only begun to lift off it’s bottom of a few weeks ago. It’s a screaming buy, IMO. I see at least $10 before any pause.

    1. mike trike

      JNUG news. I have never seen this before, not that I have paid attention.

      “Direxion announced today that effective immediately, daily creation orders in the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares leveraged exchange traded fund (Ticker: JNUG) are temporarily suspended until further notice. The suspension is due to the limited availability of certain investments or financial instruments used to provide requisite exposure to the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. Redemption orders for the Fund will not be affected, and will continue to be accepted in the ordinary course of business.

      Should demand exceed supply during the period that creation units are limited, the fund could trade at a premium to its net asset value (NAV). This suspension does not impact the ability of investors to trade shares of the fund on stock exchanges. “

  43. dboz

    In other words my 4000 shares of JNUG I bought today could be worth much more come Monday as now only the people who have them can sell them. If demand exceeds supply from here, then price will be adjusted upwards with a premium. It is truly amazing that amount of money is flowing into these small companies yet the price is stagnant or tanking.

    This should also limit contango and decay on JNUG so now is a much better long termer since it should actually trade more like a stock now with fixed and known amount of shares or units.

    1. mike trike

      Could be good for JNUG holders but most here will say it marks the top because of the excessive demand.
      Not sure what to make of it.
      GDXJ was number one on buying on weakness today as well. Probably another bearish omen for the sector, eh bears?
      http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html

      Just got an email from Jordan Roy pimping a new penny stock pick if I join today. 10 bagger potential.
      Looks like he has done a 180 and is now cautiously bullish. If we can get Gary and a few of the other sidelined bears to turn bullish on gold then it will be time to buy some puts. Jordan becoming bullish is making be want to load up on hedges.

  44. Don

    JNUG will almost certainly begin to trade higher than it’s NAV and until Direxion resumes creating new units, it could get very extreme. The problem is that anyone who buys or is now holding JNUG will have no idea what the NAV value truly is. The suspension for creating new units could last for weeks and the price could become double or triple of what it should be. Then one day, INSTANTLY, down it will go when Direxion is back creating new units. The higher the demand for JNUG, the worse the problem will be.

    People need to understand that JNUG and NUGT are derivative products that do not invest directly into individual companies as does GDX or GDXJ. Since a big part of how they achieve the 3X leverage is by way of buying options, I would suspect that they have run into a problem obtaining enough options to buy. So, are the big players refraining from selling call options and if that is the case, why?

  45. Paul

    Happy Easter everyone- I am still in cash – waiting for a pullback of something of 12% on $SPX will get me interested in UPRO, TQQQ, TNA, FAS. Currently those ETF’s still have Weekly Sell Signals per order CCI and STO. Weekly Sell Signals: CCI and STO are in place with major indexes as well. $GOLD has a Weekly Buy Signal- but I am not chasing any gold ETF’s. Again cash is good place to be… all the ETF’s listed above and major indexes are all trading below there monthly Pivots and have Traded down to there S1 levels… I would expect S2 levels to be tested next week… I do not expect the market to bottom next week

  46. Goild

    I was tempted to leave JNUG shares OVN (overnite) but to have a relaxed weekend I did not.

    Gold went up today, and NUGT remained about flat. JNUG went to hell at -10%.
    So the miners have a big problem. JNUG-NUGT=$4.35 quite large of a difference.

    Either JNUG will close the gap which I think is unlikely, or NUGT will reduce it, which is more likely as the miners problems should walk their way to GDX and then to NUGT.

    Here we need to be cool (i.e. savvy) and profit from the scenario. But how?
    Let us see if we can put some ideas that can lead to a profit taking strategy.

    There is no certainty but opportunity.

  47. Ralph Wiederzane

    Gary doesn’t see we might already be in the bubble or even the end in stocks, we have people bragging about penny stock buys, with others asking the name only and buying in a few minutes later, so they can make their 50% daily returns? LOL!!!

    And anybody long gold is a “gold bug overstaying their welcome”, even as we are just gently going higher day after day? Sure we will pull back, probably next week or the next, but that doesnt make the longs wrong. They are the ones on the right side thus far and even in a pullback might be at higher prices than where SMT sold out and blamed manipulation of miners. They aint doing a very good job manipllatin’ if you ask me.

    Its best to admit errors and learn from them, and I dont think anything has changed with regards to manipulation.

    1. Gary Post author

      LMAO I did learn from my mistakes. I tried to catch every last penny of the intermediate cycle back in Sept. and it cost us a big chunk of our profits. Not going to make that mistake again.

      I’ll wait for the next ICL when no one wants to buy.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        While I agree we are due for a pullback, I dont see all this excessive optimism you claim. Both you and Alex are not long, y only two pay services, then there are guys like Jordy Royburn calling for lower prices too, while even long term bulls like myself are only 25% invested.

        We both agree buy the next ICL, but the fact remains selling miners was not the right move in hindsight this round, despite what happened last year. And for sure manipulation wasnt a sound reason to exit, unless they are manipulating prices higher in miners.

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          As a side note, the only bulls I see in miners, aside from some day trade monkeys, are guys like me with tempered expectations and some big players like Rick Rule and Keith Neumeyer doing buying with very long term bull forecasts but short term concerns still.

        2. Gary Post author

          Actually selling miners was exactly the right call. We sold at almost the exact top in February. The mistake was trying to get back in and “make just a little bit more”.

          It caused us to get whipsawed a couple of times and lose some of our gains.

          If I had just gotten out and stayed out we would be up 179% instead of +130%.

          Not going to make that mistake again. No no no.

          Short term sentiment on gold is 83% bulls, so almost everyone is bullish right now. That makes sense as gold is going up while everything else is going down.

          1. mike trike

            “Short term sentiment on gold is 83% bulls, so almost everyone is bullish right now”

            Very few people are in this sector. Everyone is in stocks. Where do these sentiment services get their info anyways? Most gold bulls are bearish as hell right now and have been the last few months. If sentiment in gold was so high then miners would be catching a bid. The juniors that I own/follow are being ignored right now, drifting aimlessly on low volume. If sentiment was extreme these juniors would be flying right now.

    1. Gary Post author

      It still looks to me like the banksters are going to try to run the stops below the Dec. low during the next ICL. DUST and JDST both had heavy to very heavy volume today. That usually signals a top or very close to a top in the miners.

      I’m still making the call that gold is going to top early next week.

        1. Gary Post author

          Well I tend to think it’s the other way around. When socks bottom and resume the bull market advance it will probably cause liquidity to come out of gold.

          There will probably be a time when both go up together but it might not be till later in the year or next year.

          I still think gold is stuck in a basing pattern for a while longer.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Jeez Gary, you have been making the gold top call for a long time now, and taken several stabs saying this or that usually signals the top. If it was going to take this long and rise this much, and you claim to have predicted it, why wouldnt you have beenlong until todays big volume signal in JNUG as a reversal?

        Dont get me wrong, I am not buying up here but to call out every little thing day after day and be wrong, only to see GDX maybe pullback a few percent next week, if it even does, doesnt make your call correct. As proof, the manipulation BS moving to miners, while now you dont mention it and we are just due for an ICL. There is nothing wrong in being wrong on a call, its when you pretend to have been right all along it becomes a joke.

        1. Gary Post author

          I did think the reversal a couple of days ago marked the top. Missed that one, but I don’t think I will be far off. Still think gold tops early next week.

  48. primetime

    Thanks Gary. The fleas sure have big egos, nothing is ever their fault. They sure do like your input but never give you credit for the right calls. Have a happy Easter.

    1. primetime

      Gary, you must hit the absolute bottoms and tops with your predictions. Or you are wrong. Heaven forbid if we had to let a trade ride for a little while, like maybe a day or two. LOL

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Been much longer than a day or two, but think what you want. Maybe if you were on the paying side of the site you would know what I am talking about.

        I like Gary and give him credit when he is right, but when he is wrong I point that out too, especially if he is convincing himself otherwise. Not to mention the stock market and energy trades are not working either. So gold, stocks, and energy all fail, and you call it a winner bc all you have to do is hold you think? Goid luck with that strategy, especially if you are in 3x funds, another error Gary has made, in my opinion.

  49. Goild

    Don,

    Thanks for the reminder on the splits.
    I am glad your SM short is starting to work well.
    Have a great weekend and let us have a fresh mind for next week.

  50. Bill in Tokyo

    Been away a while. It’s still a lively crowd here.

    I think Gary’s probably right on gold. But I’m always suspect on the S&P, because QE is over, and stock buy-backs might diminish w/rising int rates, since the cost of borrowing cash will rise. Might have a few more ups though – only for trading, never buy and hold.

    Gary, have you been buying physical gold yet? Or still think the markets will hold up a while longer, and phys still available? More and more I hear about the market collapsing, and gold becoming unavailable to buy.

    I read about 1/3rd of this blog. About Gary, In my experience, he is very experienced, very passionate, very decisive, and while his words can sometimes sound like he’s got everything figured out, it’s really a show of confidence, as he’d be the 1st to say he has no crystal ball.

    But a quicker way to be successful as a trader is, again in my experience, is to forget everything he says, but follow everything that he does. Some trades fail, but he’s out as fast as he’s in. He’s a wave rider.

  51. Goild

    No one want has a clear crystal ball.
    That is perfectly fine.
    The one that really counts is consistency following the plan.
    Therefore plan consistency and consistently follow the plan.
    That is the secret.

    Talk to Dday.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Hi Goild. Agree as long as having a quick and effective exit strategy is part of that plan, because happens. I’m not a cycles guy like Gary, but one thing I really like about his trading style is how quick he is to respond to what’s happening in real time. Because of this, he’s often times able to eek out a small profit even when the market turns on him. I think this is why he can survive picking a bottom multiple times, and then riding the big wave once it arrives per his cycle and sentiment work.

  52. Steffmeister

    There is a great risk that Gary is wrongfooted with his calls lately.

    We might see a major correction in stockmarkets, look at NIKKEI. NIKKEI is singing the last tone and it’s ready to die. BOJ has made a final desperate attempt to prop up markets.

    Gold is very close to a breakout here.

    Next week is important if NIKKEI doesn’t recover the SM is in big trouble!

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually it’s going to be the other way around. Everyone is expecting a crash in the stock market. Can they all be right? Probably not. I’m guessing we get an undercut low on Monday and then rally, maybe to marginal new highs.

      Everyone is expecting gold to go above 1300. Can they all be right. I doubt it. Gold either topped on Thursday or it will top early next week. Traders keep making excuses for why the miners have not followed gold to new highs. That has always been a mistake in the past. When the miners don’t follow gold it’s a warning sign. It means big money is seeing something wrong or insiders are selling.

      Sentiment on GLD is 84% bulls.
      Sentiment in SPY is at 9% bulls.

      1. mike trike

        “Sentiment in SPY is at 9% bulls”

        So you are saying a 1% correction in SPY has reduced sentiment to 9% bulls?

        DSI was 95% bulls when SPY was 240 , SPY is now at 232. DSI after Wednesday’s close was 56% bulls. No way sentiment is at 9% bulls!

      2. mike trike

        “Traders keep making excuses for why the miners have not followed gold to new highs.”

        When miners have led gold it has always resulted in a brutal correction/collapse. Miners lagging gold is indicating all the spec and daytraders are not in the market right now which is bullish.
        Rick Rule agrees.
        ” So gold is set to rise and the gold stocks are set to head even higher in percentage terms”
        http://kingworldnews.com/rick-rule-near-term-setup-extremely-bullish-for-gold-mining-shares/

        1. Gary Post author

          It appears the conflict in the middle east has probably shortened the oil cycle. I doubt we will now get another leg down below $42. It looks to me like oil has completed an intermediate degree bottom.

          This is why I keep begging people not to short. Anything. It’s just too hard to make money on the short side.

  53. Steffmeister

    I am expecting bonds to rise significantly when fear is spreading across the stockmarkets. A flight to safety.

    This is a little bit earlier than I predicted, next week or the week after we will find out.

    More Geopolitical violence coming in next 2-6 weeks.

  54. victor

    while you guys guessing where and when I profited nicely on NG, but expecting move down now, will re-load soon. Gary was right that it’s will be very difficult to trade gold/miners for a while, so why straggle if we can trade with more prediction on other assets?
    My take for now:
    Gold in a process to make everyone believe we are going up then drop hard, that 4:1 split share price going to be like price now for one.
    Stocks, we are to see up and up, like nobody believe but Gary see it…, 2018 will be euphoria year. HVI.TO will be my play. Loaded with HNL.TO, very promising. Watch LABU.
    I know some people here discouraged with NTCXF or NXT.V … just wait, it’s cooking, and it is a future for solar and not only with their patents (tired myself, waiting for years…)
    Happy Easter to everyone !!

  55. Goild

    Bill in Tokyo,

    I am not a premium sub. So I just glean from others comments how Gary does the trading.
    Every one has strengths. I know Gary is prudent and experienced. I gather he knows very well how hard is to make money and so his trading decisions have good reasons.

    Talk is easy; some of us talk much. Though the real, real, real metric is where the account is at. That is the one that really counts, the bottom line. How can one argue against his 130% profit so far in the last months.

    From the comments in this blog it appears to me that Gary’s calls are what they should be, whether wrong or right, a possible/reasonable path to follow at the time of the call.
    No one can make SM certain calls for something to happen in a few weeks.

    On should consider that Gary’s position is different to our position as posters. He is managing many things/issues and needs to have a balance. HIs reasons consider diverse facts and people’s opinions,

    I do not know how many subscribers he has. Say 200, times $500 is about $100K a year. Now he is not working 40 hours a week. Most likely 60-80 hours a week. For $100K? This is not good compensation for so much work, and for all the heat some want to inflict. Gary loves trading and provides an excellent forum to us. We also have the benefit of direct/easy communication with him; something one cannot do with a fund manager.

    This game is a very rough one, very, very rough one, just surviving is a feat by itself.

    1. victor

      200 subs ? As I know about two month ago Gary has about 3000 subs, I guess he is one of the top in industry and that # make him work hard. My best, best wishes to you Gary, and stop climbing, you make many people worry when you 100 ft in the air… (( :

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