Over the last several years one of the most consistent trades has been to get long stocks ahead of an FOMC meeting. Let’s face it, it just makes the Fed’s decision making process a hell of a lot easier if stocks are rising, and at, or near all time highs.

With Trump unveiling his tax cut package next week I expect the market will be ready for a bounce either naturally, or maybe with a little help from the PPT. So I expect we’re going to be testing the all time highs by May 3rd.

After that we probably have a deeper correction in store by the end of May. So far this correction has lasted long enough, but it hasn’t dropped far enough in my opinion to qualify as a completed intermediate cycle low just yet.

As gold and stocks have been inversely correlated lately, I expect gold to drop down into its daily cycle low during this period. There is likely to be some volatility on Monday following the French elections but once the market settles down stocks should trend up into the FOMC, and gold should trend down into its daily cycle low.

I’m going to cover in detail what I expect from both metals and stocks once these counter trend moves are complete in the weekend report.
Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker


  1. Christian

    Gary — Why in the world would the PPT ALLOW for a deeper correction this time around? There’s really no rhyme or reason for it. Every time the Market tries to sell-off, the PPT steps in and does what it does best :/

    1. Gary Post author

      Well they don’t seem to freak out as long as the market doesn’t drop past the 38% Fib. That seems to be the line in the sand where the PPT steps in and aborts cycles prematurely.

  2. primetime

    Please expand upon this hypothesis of PPT. Do others talk about it, or is it kinda like Sasquath or Nessy? It may exist, but no hardcore evidence, other than a grainy, blurry pictures.

  3. primetime

    What is the evidence or proof of PPT and not market dynamics. And why talk technicals and cycles in one breath and PPT in the next? It teally does not matter, just luck.

    1. Gary Post author

      The PPT is a fact. The presidents working group on markets.

      The debate is whether or not they intervene in markets.

      In my opinion there isn’t any question they intervene. What’s the point of having the PPT if they aren’t going to do anything, or only act after a crisis is already underway? That doesn’t make any sense.

      I think they intervene occasionally, especially during intermediate cycle declines to prevent a sell off from getting too extreme, and I think they intervene from time to time ahead of political events.

  4. primetime

    So how do they prevent the sell off from getting too extreme and are they all GS bankers on the panel or who are they. Carl Icahn? and such.

    1. Gary Post author

      You can google the presidents working group on markets to see the composition.

      They intervene in the futures market. The most blatant example recently was on election night. They prevented a lock limit down open.

    2. Pedestrian

      It’s no mystery and no, it’s not a conspiracy either. The Presidents working group is made up if the Fed, the Treasury, CFTC and SEC. They intervene in commodities futures, and currency markets and their tool of choice is derivatives since so much can be leveraged with so little. Not that they are short of cash. In theory their financial muscle is almost unlimited.

      Executive Order 12631 – Working Group on Financial Markets

      “By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:
      There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:

      (1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee; (2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee; (3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and (4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.

  5. primetime

    I understand. Thank you. I will google that and research it, as I am interested. That election night reversal of gold was amazing, it stole yuuuuuge amounts of profit from and put it in others pockets.

    Back to the yard work now, I would really love to see that weekend report!!! How about a freebee so we can see what you offer to subs?! HA

      1. Christian

        $1.61 per day is pretty cheap, but there are no more “monthly subscriptions”. It’s 500 bucks for the year or you’re shit out of luck! Correct?

        I remember you doing that to get rid of the debbie downer negative nancy types — and boy oh boy there were plenty, Lol! Unfortunately some of the good subs got washed away with the rest of the deplorables #HRC πŸ™‚

  6. Gary Post author

    I still have monthlies. After the first month if you want to convert I’ll rebate back the initial monthly fee.

    It’s cheaper to do a yearly, but if one wants to just do monthly they can.

  7. chrisG

    If Le Pen wins, CAC will crash. Eurozone will be in big trouble. Another Brexit crash and rally? I dunno.

    1. Gary Post author

      It might intensify the intermediate cycle low briefly. But it won’t stop the PPT from intervening and it won’t stop this bull market from reaching its final bubble conclusion.

      This is about years of QE and trillions of dollars, not some election.

      The end game was inevitable the day QE1 started.

  8. primetime

    PPT: Executive order 12631 President Ronald Reagan 1988
    Some interesting stuff out there, and as you say Gary, no doubt manipulated. But it also seems more like corruption.

    Do you think the PPT will ever let the market drop if it gets “too hot” or will they simply lose control? No bubble ever bursts orderly.

      1. Gary Post author

        I think they learned a very valuable lesson in 2008 and 2009.

        Proactive, not reactive.

        By the time the crisis has already started it’s too late. That’s why I think interventions have become a lot more common now.

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          I think they take advantage of each crises, even welcome them. They gain more power and influence every time, and if they didn’t like them they know how to stop them.

          “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

  9. zkotpen

    Gary, Ped, Alex, Goild, et al:

    Here’s the daily gold chart I am working on, which looks for that next intermediate and perhaps yearly peak in a May time frame. Some very interesting things have popped out at me:

    1. Note: From Friday until the blue arrow up to the next peak, you will notice a little gap — that gap is where the current corrective move would complete. That corrective move is complex and mostly sideways, but the blue arrow begins around FOMC-time frame.

    2. When I drew the parallel channels, using Elliott’s techniques, I was surprised to see that the 2016 channel is almost exactly parallel to the 2017 channel (yes, I checked it). I had originally thought the 2017 channel was slightly flatter — but it’s not.

    3. I drew the 2017 channel last week; I added the 2016 channel yesterday. I was even more surprised by where the election night spike topped! Yet another confirmation — much to the chagrin of some, that election night was an ICH in gold’s YC decline.

    Here’s what I see happening after the next IC (perhaps YC) peak:

    Most likely, I believe, as I’ve been stating for months, that wave C of a triangle of cycle degree (200 week SMA degree — one degree higher than yearly cycle) could be a double zig zag. That’s the blue sideways arrows that go into the future, to an eventual wave C of triangle (waves D & E not drawn, but they would continue to wiggle sideways before such a cycle degree triangle completes, and the supercycle correction resumes in the 2020’s).

    For now, I believe that the upper channel will provide stiff and decisive resistance (i.e., yearly cycle top). If, however, that resistance is broken, the next likely resistance will be the wider, flatter channel where I add the “bullish alt” in GREEN.

    This is my alternate count — for those who love alternate counts, I want to clarify that this is possible, and I will make it my main count only if that first resistance mentioned above gets broken decisively. So it’s not a matter of having a bunch of alternate counts and waiting to see which one works, rather, I will maintain my main count as long as it plays out. If future price action breaks one resistance barrier, then I will shift gears into a more bullish mode. I realize this is possible, but assess it as less likely. I want to be prepared for either of these instances. I’ve even got one or two more bearish scenarios in mind, but not even bothering to think them through, much less draw them. If the 2016 low breaks, I’ll take them more seriously. For now, I see them as unlikely, and not worthy of any more time and energy at present.

    Way too much work for a Sunday! I’ve been working on GDX ideas since late February: GDX’s intermediate correction is a triangle still in progress (whereas gold’s ICL was an expanded flat — wave B in March, 2017, on the above charts). That would explain why GDX has underwhelmed to the upside and overwhelmed to the downside the past couple of months. Said triangle would complete, then GDX & gold would both rise to the YCH together, as they usually do.

    1. Pedestrian

      I like your chart Zkot. Very helpful. Don’t you love how the election night spike was a perfect backtest to the underside of the channel? And some people here keep insisting there is nothing to learn about technicals. The same patterns that existed on charts of 100 years back still exist today because investor behavior has not really changed.

      1. Steffmeister

        mmm you must respect the bear trendline from 2011, maybe a false breakout to 1320 then down we go!

        I see a great buying opportunity this summer in pm, stockmarkets not so much, I’ve sold most of my common stocks locked in a +35% profit in India funds. There is great odds that Gary is wrong about the stockmarket!

      2. Gary Post author

        I see something similar but I think gold will have a correction between now and the FOMC meeting. It’s just getting very late in the daily cycle to keep rallying.

        Then I would look for either a double top or marginal breakout in May before the larger ICL decline.

        1. RTTPD

          Gary —-

          Based on a few comments by you in this one and a few other recent threads, I get the distinct feeling that you believe they are going to lead us down the path where we think higher rates are coming?

          What gappens if the reverse is true and they begin to turn tail and ease rates?

          Several writers are pitching that right now…..and it seems highly plausible in light of the Atlanta Feds downward revision.

  10. zkotpen


    Indeed! That election night spike was appropriate, or at least the underlying swift, i.e., left translated, intermediate peak was also to be expected — I was posting as much since October: That the YCL was not yet complete. Clearly, if I, like many, including Gary, considered the Oct. low an ICL, and if the move down was incomplete, that would imply another intermediate cycle, which, of course, would have a top and be left translated. One way or another, the intermediate cycle was going to happen — that it touched the previous intermediate trendline is just a beauty to behold!

    As you suggest: Classic!

    1. zkotpen

      PS: Speaking of classic, I’m back on track giving the 200 week SMA its due importance in my analysis. I always kept it on my charts, but weighed the 400 week SMA with greater importance.

      Now, I use both as equally important:

      The 200 week SMA for CYCLE degree; the 400 week SMA for SUPERCYCLE degree.

  11. Bill in Tokyo

    Great chart, zkotpen. I am seeing the same thing, your point Y being the last lower low in Dec, and now we’re climbing higher making higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. As long as this continues, I’m bullish on gold as a trade.

    Hey, where’s Muffin? I miss that guy – had soul. And wit.

  12. Steffmeister

    I am bearish, both metals and stockmarkets:


    US moneyΒ supply is falling off a cliff:

    The deciding factor for the business cycle: Lower money supply growth means fewer transactions and the endΒ result is lower GDP. If this pattern continues USA will soon fall into a recession.

    if you look at the chart, an easy 5 waves up and now we are moving into a corrective a-b-c, building the a at the moment. A picture perfect head&shoulders pattern.

  13. zkotpen

    Actually, I am gonna give some lovin’ to one of the two bearish alternatives… one that Gary has hinted at more than once. Gary has suggested that GDX will take out the December, 2016, low. I will add, so, too, could gold. In truth, it’s not much different from the more bearish count I drew in the second chart — it just goes a little lower than the “X” I’ve drawn in the future. Instead of being “X”, It would be primary (yearly) wave B of the multi-year (cycle wave) consolidation in progress.

    For most people, as a practical matter, it’s a question of symantics: Whether the coming correction takes out the December, 2016, low or not. As a technical matter, on the other hand, it makes a big difference for 2018 whether that low is taken out, and the wave character of the correction.

    Here’s my thinking over the past few hours: Just as the move UP from December could be the first in a double zig zag, so too could it be the X wave (bull trap) in a double zig zag DOWN since last July. In that case, it’s good night Dec., 2016, low. The Dec, 2015, low would also be at risk of seeing a marginally lower low.

    Sure, the ultra-bearish scenario also exists, but I think it’s highly unlikely.

    So in summary, I’m feelin’ good about my first chart, which is my forecast for the next month that I’m stickin’ with, unless price action over time does something totally different, in which case it’s back to the drawing board.

    After the coming high, I’m watching for evidence of which of the two cases presents itself on the YC decline: Whether it exceeds the Dec, 2016, lows or not — in either case, the next IC down will likely go below last month’s low. Then it’s a question of (1) how far; and (2) wave character of the move.

  14. ARends

    Ped Don and Z, Really appreciate some other insight

    Any Ideas in copper CUUSD. Went long ! The convergence RSI and MACD on 4 hour chart looked a go with the reverse wedge. The daily looks seem good same indicators. Any ideas

    1. Pedestrian

      I don’t really follow copper but a quick glance at the monthly chart suggests it has bounced of its channel and could be headed back down. So monthly bearish although that probably isn’t how you are trading it. The way I read this is to locate the lower channel first and when that is done, use that as a reference to find the parallel channel top rail. You will notice the parallel doesn’t take the 2011 price top into account. Its actually a sub-channel I am drawing. But when you use the 2011 peak the upside channel potential is in the 3 dollar and change range before major resistance comes in.

      I have a better idea though. That’s to go with a copper proxy and in this case I use TECK. I figure the people who really know copper have already priced their beliefs into the chart and this one is always interesting to follow.

      So TECK is above its 200 sma and just back-testing its 50 right now. If it breaks lower from the 50 its probably heading back down.Not sure if that’s very helpful since its not my area but I would probably check a few other copper miners before making any big bets since copper does not look too bullish to me right now.

      Maybe look at Freeport or others.

  15. zkotpen


    “must respect the bear trendline from 2011, maybe a false breakout to 1320 then down we go!”

    Respect YES — Worship NO!

    As I’ve mentioned once or twice before, gold’s trendline from 2011 is of CYCLE degree. Just as daily, intermediate, and yearly cycles must break their RESPECTive trendlines in the opposite direction to confirm the RESPECTive trend change, so, too for the cycle and supercycle (8 year) degree trendlines, RESPECTively πŸ˜‰ When the 2011 cycle trendline breaks, it merely confirms December, 2015, as a cycle degree low. Without that trendline break, lower lows are still technically possible within cycle analysis, just as the same can be said for daily, intermediate, and yearly cycles, RESPECTively πŸ™‚

    At any rate, I still agree with your outlook for a move up, followed by a larger move down… after the current little correction finishes up, presumably in the next week or two…

    1. zkotpen

      Another word for all that RESPECT I describe is FRACTALS:

      The same rules apply at each degree of trend.

      So after the 2011 cycle trendline breaks to confirm the 2015 low, a new upper trendline will be drawn based from 2011 to the end of cycle wave B — that will be the 2011 supercycle trendline, flatter than the current cycle trendline emanating from that same 2011 peak. That trendline will hold for at least a decade in total — perhaps 20 years or more. Who knows if/when that one will break.

      Goldbugs will certainly be worshipping it, that’s for sure, backing up their trucks.

      Though by that time, we may not even need motors or vehicles, or gold, for that matter.

      We may all be perfectly enlightened beings by then πŸ˜‰

      Oops — tiny syntax error in the previous statement:

      May we all be perfectly enlightened beings by then πŸ™‚

      1. Steffmeister

        Seriously, will all that debt on a global basis, I say hell no!!

        Your first chart is a perfect match for my fractal in GDXJ, but that one has been leaked to the public and is not to be trusted. We will get a summer low instead just look at the OI for Silver.

  16. zkotpen

    I have spent the entire Sunday day & night working to fill in the missing fractals in my analysis. There were gaps, which became increasingly apparent and vexatious. I’ve endeavored to find the best fit to fill every fractal of wave from super cycle down to minuet degree (two degrees of trend below the daily cycle). Took one break for lunch & a few cat naps. Quite pleased with the results — backtested & will do real time testing next week, to see if they look good for FOMC/jobs week the 1st week of May.

    Hope everybody has a great Sunday, 2 πŸ™‚

  17. Steffmeister

    A fractal, a self repeating pattern. It doesn’t matter if it’s a chart an arm or a finger. I am measuring the fib-sequence of the GDXJ index to offset a count for trading days between the fractal waves. You can measure it in different ways, you are using EW, I am using fib-sequence math.

    1. zkotpen


      The self-repeating pattern specifically repeats, “at all scales of measurement between a greatest and smallest scale”, from the definition I linked to above. The whole universe in a grain of sand kind of thing.

      It sounds like you’re talking about periodicity… I’m just not seeing how that repeats at all scales large & small — different time scales?

      The basic unit of time in markets is one day. All time scales build up and are divided from that. So if you identify a pattern using days, then how do you scale it up? And how do you scale it down?

      Any one person’s approach to technical analysis is irrelevant to the notion of fractals & whether one is using them or not, though clearly if one is using the wave principle to identify patterns, fractals come as part of the package by definition.

      The first time I recognized & was fascinated by a fractal pattern was when I saw a picture on a small town newspaper when I was 10 years old. It was a picture of 2 men, with 1 holding a copy of the same edition of the same newspaper, with the same photo on the cover, showing it to the other. The same image, within the same image, getting smaller and smaller, as far as the eye could see, into the photo. I had never heard the word fractal, never seen a financial chart, but that picture was super-cool! I was hooked…

      (1) Is the pattern irregular or fragmented?; and

      (2) Does it repeat on larger and smaller scales, as a practical matter, let’s say, up to 8 year (aka supercycle wave), and down to 5-10 hours cycle (aka minuet wave)?

      That’s what’s relevant to fractals.

  18. zkotpen


    I can definitely see what you’re saying about bullish sentiment in metals being high, & that the time to buy will be when everybody is selling & calling you crazy for buying.

    I can see it on the charts. We should make a movie:

    There Will Be Tears


  19. ARends

    Sharing my thoughts on the analysis of CUUSD below, tell me what you think for my POV
    Really appreciate your insight to the possible flaws.

    Looking at my analysis I attached daily chart with the bottom on daily cycles I identified, the last look right translated. Then we see it bouncing on the blue resistance channel or wedge The MACd blue turning up with it showing divergence.

    The weekly show bottom 2016 Jan with higher cycle low and CH breaking the down trend line up (green) Purple lines run parallel. Half moons at the bottom show cycles and Daily half cycles . Last Candle look bullish at fib .38 also on purple resistance

    The 4 hourly chow divergence on RSI for top of channel and considering daily and weekly to possibly break channel with a bounce back to a fib to watch or sell

  20. Christian

    Gold looks to be setting up for one more thrust but we have HUGE resistance at 1305, that’s where everything will be decided in my opinion.. And I think the french elections which are weighing heavy on everyone’s mind [France is the second biggest economy in Europe] could mark the top in Gold. Let’s see what happens ladies.

    Z-man: Nice charts and solid analysis.. Again I would avoid cutting through the body of the candles, only the wicks brother! I’m nitpicking but still πŸ™‚

    1. Christian

      Just to validate my last point as far as drawing Trendlines.. There’s a ton of info online but I found this one on a Website called

      “The most important part of any trend line is to get the most touches without the level cutting off part of a candlestick. If you find that a trend line cuts through the body of a candlestick, then the trend line is likely not valid.”

      1. zkotpen

        Thanks Christian!

        What you describe sounds like a best-fit trendline — which seems to apply to cycle theory.

  21. ARends

    Sharing my thoughts on the analysis of CUUSD below, tell me what you think for my POV
    Really appreciate your insight to the possible flaws.

    Looking at my analysis I attached daily chart with the bottom on daily cycles I identified, the last look right translated. Then we see it bouncing on the blue resistance channel or wedge The MACd blue turning up with it showing divergence.

    The weekly show bottom 2016 Jan with higher cycle low and CH breaking the down trend line up (green) Purple lines run parallel. Half moons at the bottom show cycles and Daily half cycles . Last Candle look bullish at fib .38 also on purple resistance

    The 4 hourly chow divergence on RSI for top of channel and considering daily and weekly to possibly break channel with a bounce back to a fib to watch or sell

  22. Pedestrian

    So can the markets really crack if COT positioning is absolutely flat? Where is the suggested volatility? The chart I was just looking at was the DOW index and something I had not noticed before. Look at the COT’s at the bottom of the chart (not the mini contract) and ask yourself the same question I did. Does that index really look like there is trouble coming based in the COT’s? For the past 24 months there has been just about zero movement and zero crossovers. Pretty weird isn’t it? Since the largest buyers of DOW components are primarily institutions, pension funds, governments and that sort of thing maybe they know something the rest of us don’t. So are the large players telling us its clear sailing ahead and that we can buy blissfully while relaxing on a hammock in the Bahamas? Wish I knew but I don’t.

    COT positioning is flat as a pancake. Maybe we are just really bored.

  23. ARends


    What is your opinion on the article? Investors will start serious investment now that we at the death cross about to cross over as a key event for investors. So we might just see a 1260 pull back if it gets there. How valid would sentiment as contrarian indicator be in this leg up to be in this period if investors with huge funds start piling with a green light the bull is alive, as their key indicator to buy. Will your idea of the zigzag not diminish with this pov and we just see it break the long-term trendline. The up leg would accelerate before the smart money break sentiment rather at 1340 as the last distination looking at ABCD. I am still in Dust which I realised you sold possible more down side seems risky as a few believ we have a pull back much lower like 1225.

  24. TraderPete

    The USD is down sharply, down .84 as of this writing, below 99. I therefore suspect will see a strong rally in gold and silver.

    1. Pedestrian

      Nuts isn’t it.

      On the other hand, the people who have sworn gold will rise with dollars on the next cycle could turn out to be the ones who saw this coming all along. Basically all the flight to safety trades are what’s selling off with one exception.

      Bonds, Yen, Gold and Dollar are red but Swissy is in the green.

      Hey Gary, check the sharp rise in the NASDAQ. Looks like its going to tag that upper trend line you drew for me a couple days back. We shall know fairly soon if that’s a valid expanding wedge or not but its a lot closer to setting up for a decline than it was last week.

      And if that’s the case then everything we are seeing happen right now could be ready to reverse again.

      EG: Gold and dollar rising back up with bonds and Yen

      1. Christian

        Kinda wish I’d held on to some DUST but better safe than sorry.

        If Gold retraces and tags the underside of the 10DMA without the momentum to back it up, that could be a good spot to go Short.

      2. Gary Post author

        I think they will keep the market propped up into the FOMC meeting. After that we could get a bigger correction.

  25. Pedestrian

    Yikes, a 23 dollar vertical drop in gold?

    And it happened as the Euro leapt almost 2% higher. OK people if anyone saw that coming put up your hands because I sure didn’t. Guess the euro/gold correlation is officially broken. Good news though. Gold went down with Yen so something still works.

    And that’s a perfect example of why I hate holding trades over a weekend. Especially when there is some important event slated that is assured to move markets violently at least over the short term. So I can console myself that even though my JNUG trade made nothing last Friday, that at least I won’t wake up to a nasty drop tomorrow morning.

    Sleep well. Monday could be an interesting day.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      USD getting smoked too, and gold getting hammered. So much for analyzing the dollar for an edge in the metals arena.

      If you don’t hold over weekends or whenever an important announcement is coming out, there is no other time to hold. To those in charge, it’s always an important announcement. Today it’s the elections, next week it’s the Fed, and all sorts of stuff I haven’t looked at in between.

    2. dboz

      Maybe the exact opposite of our election will occur. Rapid spike down and then a monstrous move up to balance the exact opposite of Trump reaction. There we had a huge spike and then a huge crash.

  26. primetime

    Just like I said, all the worthless talk and waste of breath analyzing technicals, cycles and the charts. All the ultra intelligent, all-knowing are in the same boat as all the rest. The only difference I see is the egomaniacs think they are the best, and cannot accept they are not in control of their financial future in the market. It is nothing more than a casino and you know it. The luck of the blind squirrel. Then when one gets lucky, he must thump his chest like investing King Kong and tell everyone how he knew it and why he knew it. In his own mind he is the chart reading, investing guru.

    1. Gary Post author

      I did call for a top early last week based on how late it was in the daily cycle. The top occurred on Monday.

    2. spectrum2105

      Actually, it is possible. TQQQ, the last buy signal was 84. I’ll post the sell signal when it happens. Back-tested to 2010 a phenomenal performance, when TQQQ was introduced, with 4 – 6 trades per year. This is a bull market strategy.

    3. jacob2

      Yep, tend to agree. Never a lack of systems, advice and the latest guru telling you what need to do with your money. To be a long term succes needs to develop there own specific style and comfort level. Over decades of practise it finally comes to you. Good luck.

    4. Pedestrian

      Ah here he is.

      It’s primetime, our resident cave man stepping out from the shadow of his cave-house to throw a few spears at the partial solar eclipse and claiming confidently while waving his cave-spear that since he doesn’t know anything about solar eclipses that nobody else does either!

      And wouldn’t you just know it. Caveman PT must be right since after hurling dozens of spears at the sun for well over an hour the solar eclipse came to an end proving beyond a shadow of doubt that spears and ignorance are stronger than science.

      clap…clap….clap…….Bravo primetime! Bravo!!!

  27. Christian

    Gary — Gold just broke the 10DMA and the cycle uptrend line. If Gold reverses early next week.. Could that qualify as a DCL? I’m asking because it seems to be a bit shallow and short lived.

    1. Gary Post author

      They rarely end quickly. They usually go far enough to make the Bulls scream with pain.

  28. macman1519

    Ped ,
    But not in the comparison below your flat pancake. Why the discrepancy between the 5X chart and the 10X chart, shouldnt they be relatively the same if we r dealing only in multiples of only two?

  29. macman1519

    And just to throw another major hatching of a Black Swan, N Korea just threatened to sink an American aicraft carrier! Is anyone thinking accident, may cause a missile launch by one side. And why did Trump not act realy, really, really decidely when He could have fixed the Korean conflict in one strategic pinpoint strike. A strike so complete that it is amazing no one did it. I think it common knowledge, that America is constantly targeting “enemy” world leaders, and i mean constantly under satellite observation. The Korean leader is the most secretive, hidden, and protected, second only to Putin. For the US not to be prepared to take him and his generals out in one fell swoop, is astonishing. And they werent prepared, Incompetence or tactically impossible in time alotted, but that was a great time to drop a low level, undetectable by radar, cruise missile onhis and his generals behinds… missed opportunity. But i think gold rebounds and goes higher, increased uncertainty, pissing contest in Korea, Eurozone-France, irratinality in markets. Almost like control is finding it harder to manipulate further. Anybody feeling confident of anything, besides you charts that is…..

    1. ARends

      One thing you should realise by now that conflict in the world and regions has nothing to do what they say and the media pretend to be. There has been a plan with middleeast and all to do with petrodollar. Dictators and weapons are just excuses for the plans. Many other countries much worse in human rights and weapons like NK that nothing has happened over years but all plays out in middle east. ASK why and then why just selective news. You just hear about from media they want you to hear.

      1. Pedestrian

        Agree ARends. North Korea has been part of the masterplan since George Bush called that country a part of the “Axis of Evil” back in 1988. So this is a 30 year program playing out and mighty Kim Kong is nothing more than an actor in a staged event. A really shitty actor at that but he’s all we got right now.

      1. dboz

        Broken down? 1.5%. Good healthy consolidation. Dollar is way down so we will see. Looking for XAU to come down and bounce with possible upcoming fuel to break us out. Not expecting it today. But setting up for a potential very soon.

  30. chrisG

    Lol, go to a news oriented and posts. So true. These news are like story telling. Bedtime stories. Waste of time. And haven’t u all realized, fat Kim is just a fat dog that barks. Can’t fly a missile. What black swan. Yawn…

    1. Pedestrian

      Look out for Kim Kong! Worst actor since the original King-Kong movie was made in Japan so many years ago.

  31. Dday

    Wish I had held onto DUST on Friday, still better safe than sorry… Interesting looking at the French election, all mainstream parties wiped out Macron, an ex banker great for the Euro not gold.

  32. Alexandru Popovici

    Natural Gas –> another great candidate for shorting later this week.

    I see it attempting to rise in a new DC while clearly being in a fresh IC (week 9) after ICL on FEB22.
    This DC should be left-translated and fail to allow NatGas to deliver also a failed IC by falling below last ICL @ $2.64.

    1. victor

      Hi Alex, thank you. Sold it Apr 13 @ 3.229, expecting it down but not in such erratic way…
      Not sure @ $2.64, will start buying @ 2.88
      Good trading to you.

  33. Alexandru Popovici

    Hello, hello, dear Victor!
    I was thinking about you when I decided to put that comment today.
    Yes, I know you went long, hope it was w/ a pilot trade only because, even if the dead cat bounce in risk-on assets had been easily forecastable, the trade itself, going long on a risk-on assets was very risky.

    I expect that the ongoing dead cat bounce in NatGas will charge the bear very very STROONG πŸ™‚
    I am confident we will see NatGas to lower low, <2.64, in May.
    Let's see πŸ™‚

  34. Goild

    Good morning,

    NUGT-JNUG=$4; this is the gap is reduced from about $$4.35.
    Though changes are no linear.

    Good trading to all.

  35. Gary Post author

    Last week when everyone was looking at the charts and saying gold was going higher and that miners were going to break out I said that gold would top early in the week. It topped on Monday.

    Now we see bulls jump in to buy the dip, but they are too early. The bottom won’t come until all these early dip buyers panic out with big losses. I doubt gold bottoms until the FOMC meeting or the employment report next week.

    Then we still need at least one failed and left translated cycle before the real buying opportunity will arrive.

    Remember how painful the decline was going into the bottom in December? Day after day of losses. It seemed like it would never end.

    Get prepared for another one of those before a final bottom probably in June.

    There’s just no need to be in a hurry to buy metals right now.

    1. ras

      Good call, Gary. Let us give credit where it is due. Whatever the market does, according to your script or its own script is ok by me.

  36. Ralph Wiederzane

    We might eventually be proven correct, but it’s too soon to tell, G. LOL, its the first day down and the market hasn’t even opened yet, but the claims of being correct are already here after being wrong for several weeks day after day with top calls. And it’s not just Gary, it’s other guys I read as well as myself a couple times.

    Let’s hope miners do come in, but also lets not get ahead of ourselves.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Not to mention you were short miners and about to get paid today, but instead closed out the trade. So what is more important, making money or telling everybody you were correct?

      All that matters is making money by being positioned correctly. If you can’t stay in trades, it doesn’t matter one bit if you were right or wrong, because the money is being made by somebody else. This is the one thing that turns me off to newsletter writers, and again, it’s not just Gary here, it’s every single one of them!

      1. Gary Post author

        I shorted miners at almost the exact top and exited with a $24,000 profit ahead of the weekend uncertainty. Since I don’t have a crystal ball that was exactly the right thing to do as the market could have gone either way based on how an election went in France.

        Now I will sit on the sidelines and probably wait till I think the next cycle has topped before re entering. The next daily cycle should be the left translated one where the real damage will be done.

        Those that kept pressing the long side just lost all their profits because they got too greedy. Just like I warned would happen. I didn’t catch the last run into the top but it didn’t matter because we made just as much on the short trade as we would of trying to hold for ever last penny.

        All that matters is the score board, and our just keeps grinding higher.

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          Sure G, you nailed it, again, especially if you don’t count any of your other calls, like getting out at the low and a loss back in March, and no, longs have not lost “all their profits” from even from when you got out the GDX is still 10% higher including today’s move lower.

          Jeez ,man.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            Had you just held from March, the NUGT is 30% higher right now from your exit price, yet you think 14% is better and proves you correct? I don’t get it.

          2. Gary Post author

            I couldn’t hold from March. Other than just trusting an old turkey strategy there was no reason to hold. The miners were not acting correctly. By holding one was just hoping something would happen to save the position.

            But I can’t construct trade strategies based on hope. I have to use what’s happening at the moment.

            So I made the right call and preserved most of our profits and now I’ve added to them again.

            There are many gold bugs just like you that only want to hear that gold is going up. When I can’t tell them that they leave and look elsewhere for someone who will.

            But I’m not here to make gold bugs feel good. I’m here to try to make money. When gold is 18 weeks into an intermediate cycle it’s just dangerous to be telling people to push long positions.

      2. Pedestrian

        I disagree Ralph. What you don’t seem to appreciate is that Gary’s sale of DUST was preemptive and intended to take existing profits to eliminate the risk of an unknown outcome in French elections. Nobody knew how the election would turn out.

        Had Gary held, he would indeed have come out ahead but that kind of trading is better know as gambling and carries significant risk. I also sold Friday. It is because I am a terrible judge when it comes to politics and market impacts and I won’t hesitate to admit that.

        In my case I would have suffered a nasty loss today had I not taken action. Preservation of capital is really your number one goal in the markets. Secondly it is to earn a profit in excess of costs using the best risk reduction strategies you know.

        So I applaud Gary for using good strategy and exiting a trade with a respectable gain.

        They will live to play another day.

  37. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, look.
    Since we’ve written each other, NatGas has already corrected…
    If it is not able to hold on during this wave of optimism but falls, then its spine is broken – smart money are hurrying up to sell on any strength now, do not waste any opportunity.
    This kind of attitude of a risk-on asset (falling on great news from a level close to its top) is peculiar to major drawdown periods.
    Watch out being a bull on it before it gets below 2.64!

  38. Goild

    Most people work very hard to make money.
    Consequently one needs to be prudent.

    Some comments here are from a day trading point of view.
    Therefore be careful following any one.

  39. Ralph Wiederzane

    And I am not saying Gary has to get all the calls correct bc the best only get 60% right, but people have to be held accountable for claims they make, and I wish Gary would give the claims of nailing stuff at every corner almost perfectly a long break. Anybody can say day after day something will turn, and guess what, everybody will be right eventually!

    1. Gary Post author

      I sold short at almost the exact top. The exact number was DUST at $24.60 at the open on Apr. 17.

      I placed no other short trades before that.

      So tell me how that was not a pretty damn good call?

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        That part was fine, but why are you only looking at one call when so many have stunk? Also, buying is half the trade, selling the other half, and you are out already, so talkling about today as if it somehow benefits your subs is disingenuous.

        A great entry and terrible exit still is nothing to jump up and down about. Remember 2011, you had a great entry in silver, lost it all by being a few days late?

        I will leave it alone, but picking your trades from a bunch of lowers to claim victory isn’t ethical. Fact is, while you bash longs, they are still up double what you made on this short side from the same entry price as you. Just look at that chart and that big down day reversal in late March. If you think the banksters are goind to test Dec lows then you should still be short!

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          I meant to say “picking a winning trade out of a several losers”….

          Anyway, as promised I will leave the issue alone. There are traders and there are newsletter sellers.

          1. Pedestrian

            Give it a rest Ralph.

            Gary has already been sufficiently criticized for a couple past trades to last a lifetime. Give the guy some credit where credit is due instead of raining junk all over the parade. What’s your agenda anyway? I don’t see you posting any successes. Just pointless complaints.

        2. Gary Post author

          Now you’ve become no better than the rest of the trolls that only focus on the losing trades.

          No one gets every trade correct. What matters is if the winning trades outweigh the losing trades and if the portfolio is increasing or decreasing.

          One could win 90% of the time but still have their portfolio decreasing over time because when they win they don’t win very much, and when they lose they lose big.

          Our portfolio is increasing over time. That means the winning trades are greater than the losing trades. So are you more concerned about focusing on the losing trades to push your agenda, or do you want to look at overall performance?

          1. waverider

            There were alternatives to your process. You could have TRIPLED your money buying XME (metals and mining) in Jan. 2016 and just ignored it. With NO leverage!

  40. Goild

    I bet JNUG was going to rise first thing and so with 6K shares I got lunch money this early.
    Good trading to all.

  41. chrisG

    Did Gary say he catches all the turn??? Or that he catches some turn? If he catches 3 out of 10 turns, the rests he did nothing, that’s a very good catch right???? Little to no loss, and make very good profits for 3 turns

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      No, he implies he is kicking ass and nailing it while he says bulls have lost all their profits, which is easily disproven by the chart. See for yourself on GDX.

      1. Christian

        I get what you’re saying Ralph but at the same time I think you’re being a bit hard and bitter. Gary [and myself included for that matter] warned everyone that Gold was running late into its intermediate cycle and that Miners were showing signs of weakness — while everyone else was busy trying to buy the dip and ignoring the obvious.

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          Not bitter, I got paid hard in 2016, better returns than I have seen anywhere mentioned by those also long the Baby Bull.

          There is a difference between warning of something right around the corner, and warning about it far too early, even betting opposite (selling longs) when it was the right trade all along even at today’s “reduced” prices.

          I promised not to hound Gary on this so prefer not to continue, but it’s not because I am not interested! I call it like I see it, and I am looking to get heavily long myself after being patient for over a month, so I welcome lower prices and have orders to add below the market. Let’s hope we get there, I am betting it will be tomorrow morning but could be wrong.

  42. Ralph Wiederzane

    Seems miners should be down more, being they have lagged gold and it’s down almost 20 bucks today.

  43. Don

    I see this little pullback in gold as an opportunity to buy the junior miners much at a better price than we have seen for weeks. Bought some more ZJG at 8.54. Gold is holding up rather well, I think.

  44. Goild

    A slow day so far. In principle it is supposed to be a bad day.
    I am waiting for volatility.
    Pork shops might be delicious and we need some pigs,

  45. Goild

    There are no incentives to go long on 3X so hardly one can expect them to shine today.
    Do not hope.
    Execute stop loss.

  46. JJHarmen

    While I was watching the markets early this morning, the one thing I knew we could all count on is that Goild would make his lunch money today.

    1. Christian

      And soon after lunch the wife will be putting the collar on him, and he will be treated to a few well deserved spanks. Just the way he likes it πŸ™‚

      Beautiful Wife: A job well done my pet.
      Goild: Yes mistress!
      Beautiful Wife: I CAN’T HEAR YOU!

  47. JJHarmen

    I feel better about closing out all my stock market short positions last week. These markets are insane.

  48. Goild

    This is fun guys.
    Today’s lunch money will go to pay a relative hospital bill.
    Wife just prepared a delicious breakfast.
    Good trading to all.

  49. Don

    There is quite a disconnect this morning between the falling dollar and most commodities, not just oil and the PMS. It is a disconnect that has been on going for almost a week now.

  50. Don

    Hey Ped, have you changed anything about your bullish outlook for gold and the miners? You will let us know when you jump in on the long side, I hope.

  51. Don

    I expect that by the end of this week, all these rallies and sell off due to the French election, will have reversed.

  52. ras

    financials are waking up: jpm, wfc, cof, plus bac, bk,c, gs, ms,amtd, brk/b,etfc, etc. Would not be surprised if the SM upswing lasted longer than May 5. It could drag on until late may. This could be slow motion stuff.

  53. Bigdaddy

    Why are all the world’s markets so excited about a french election? I don’t get it. I have not bought anything today.

    1. Pedestrian

      Because the lead candidate wants to end the Shengen agreement and go back to self enforced national borders. Europe is currently a mostly borderless economic zone but has been abused by the influx of immigrants such that there are no controls whatsoever on the free movement of people. By returning to the old system of national borders the flow of goods and commerce will be interrupted and some countries may want to revert to old tariff and tax systems to protect their economies. The entire Euro project is at risk now and that includes the Euro itself plus trillions of dollars in tangled intra-national debt and hundreds of trade agreement with other nations. It is of considerable interest to every investor on the planet simply because the European region is the largest single economic zone on Earth. France being the second largest economy in the zone will do untold damage to the project should they depart and that includes the likely possibility of widespread bank failures and the inevitable debt defaults. The nightmare scenario for the world therefore is that France returns to the Franc and in the process potentially sends the globe into an economic tailspin of depression and deflation as the widespread repercussions reverberate in every country and every bank from Timbuktoo to the moon. If the Euro project fails there will be a contagion of defaults across Europe that will bleed out to all the worlds weaker nations. A true domino effect that can only end with a dollar at unimagined highs and therefore commodities crashing to the lows of 50 years ago. Pensions will be wiped out in the process. Insurance companies in the Americas and Asia will bankrupt. Jobs will disappear by the millions and pretty much everything Armstrong forecast in his worst case scenario will unfold as war erupts as it always does when there is serious global economic disturbances.

      So yeah, French politics are a big deal.

        1. Pedestrian

          Gold will go up (a lot). And you can take that to the bank if you like. I will refer you to Exters Pyramid if you are curious so it is linked below. In a nutshell though gold (and silver) remain the one form of money that is nobody else’s liability and cannot be printed into infinity by any government. Central Banks hold it for a reason. Governments hoard it for similar purposes. They all know the business cycle will eventually come around to the winter stage at which time most credit will become worthless and untold amounts of past debts and promises become unpayable and uncollectible. There is an expected debt default process at the end of each credit cycle and we are close to the end of the line now. Savers need to be especially careful where their assets are stored. Borrowers will in many cases be wiped out to zero if they cannot cover their prior extravagance and meet the bills. We are looking at a form of Jubilee so its not all bad news if you are gainfully employed and debt free when the time comes. Gold may not rise as much as you imagine in nominal terms but since it is real money it is what it can purchase in real terms when called upon to perform its function that will really matter as demand for money rises. It is at that time and only at that time that good money is able to drive bad money out of the system. You should have some in your possession in my opinion. Ten percent of net worth will cover it should real estate prices crater 90% during the asset crash that always comes. But above all, you must have a secure source of income. The only thing that can save you in a credit cycle Armageddon is liquidity and cash. So be sure to have some.

  54. ras

    europe etfs gapping up: fez, iev, eurl, etc. So much for the french election funk created by the media to catch folks attention.

  55. JJHarmen

    Credit should be given where credit is due. Gary made a good call on gold last week. Bravo! He made a very poor call on energy a few weeks prior. Thumbs down! I figure that makes him about even so i am not quite ready to subscribe just yet.

    1. Don

      JJ: Be fair. Gary has been quite clear that the stock market would go up and so far, looks like that call is on track. I don’t agree but that stance isn’t working out so well, so far.

  56. Robert

    Gary you keep saying that 18 weeks is too late in golds cycle but couldn’t it do what it did last year April and give a mild ICL?

    1. Gary Post author

      I wouldn’t count on it. Gold isn’t in the baby bull anymore. I think it will be a volatile grind down to test the lower triangle trend line.

      1. jacob2

        Gary, no oil no gold participating in any recent rallies and we’re well into the strong seasonal time for oil. Perhaps we are only half way through a commodity bear market and gold as always the leading indicator? ( long and some oil the SM (years). Awaiting the blowoff phase but it may look different that what I have expected.

  57. Goild

    I am done for the day.
    As said before and a few NUGT is a much better deal for going long, day trading.
    Good trading to all.

  58. Pedestrian

    The moment of truth has arrived people. I said I would warn you when the day came.

    Well it is almost here.

    The Eurostoxx has now reached its point of primary major resistance. We should know very soon if stock markets will correct in Europe as the indice falls back from what could potentially be a double-top. There is a runoff election in Europe in two weeks time and so that is the time frame we are dealing with here.

    You MUST see this chart if you have not already done so. Also go and check the DAX as it too has now reached its resistance level and could similarly drop just about any day now.

    EuroStoxx at major resistance (look out belooooooow!)

    DAX at major resistance too. (look out there too)

    Nikkei lagging but its possible it hits resistance in two weeks time. It has been there once already based on some charting of support lines I did so the deal may be sealed on a second attempt should it fail to break through.

    I am not saying I am going to be correct with this idea people but if I am you can comfort yourselves knowing that you have come to the one site where an accurate prediction was made timing the stock markets next correction (not crash btw. I do not believe we have a crash coming). Such predictions are far more diffficult to make than you might imagine and over the past 8 years just about everyone who tried has walked away with egg on his face.

    I may join that sorry crowd. I don’t know. But I am preparing to short markets at the first hint of real trouble. Personally I think the disturbance will come out of Europe and then work its way into US markets shortly afterwards.

    It should be a good buying opportunity when its over.

  59. dboz

    Nothing to say. Buy the NASDAQ like Gary says. To the MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON.
    When you are sitting on miner longs for over a year with no real hope of a turnaround, you have to start thinking about capitulation as a contrarian and join the herd and the easy trade, just by the NASDAQ and turn off the computer for 6 months.

  60. Pedestrian

    So I just read a good explanation of what happened yesterday. It seems there was heavy pre-election hedging going on with traders going long yen and short euro. When the preferred results came in the trades were reversed triggering a huge amount of euro buying and yen selling. Short covering in other words. Thus the euro took off like a bat out of hell. This was a conflict for gold as it typically follows both euro and yen to the upside and down. Instead, gold was sold off along with the Yen and the dollar naturally fell against a strong euro.

    Lets see if everyone is all giddy as get-out after the upcoming run-off election.

    1. TraderPete

      Ped, thanks for the explanation. Lanci also has a very good explanation as well. You can read it on Kitco’s website.

  61. Pedestrian

    Now, just in case I have not woken anybody up to the prospect of a near term market correction then let me add a little more fuel to the fire of concern. Most of you here likely do not follow Asian markets. They have however presaged declines in the US and Europe on more than one occasion so its worthwhile knowing whats happening over there.

    For example, in the last 10 trading days the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) has fallen a remarkable 5% after double-topping at 3288. You Elliot Wave people may want to take a closer look at the longer term charts since its my view it has only completed 2 of 3 legs down and it is entirely possible that exchange could see the 2000 level again given the shape of the chart pattern since January 2016 is little more than a gigantic bear flag.

    Asian stocks were down again today with other indexes like the Shenzen falling even more than the Shanghai. So lets keep that in mind as the other index’s I keep mentioning are all near potential topping points. This is not to be alarmist of course. But lets not ignore the obvious in our technicals.

    SHCOMP falling hard since April 11th and is currently down 5% which is correction territory

    1. dboz

      We are now at a 69% chance a June rate hike is coming. That jumped up quickly. So I would say at this time, that is surely in play.

  62. cazabrujas

    Hey Gary. I must admit I was skeptical, but at the end you were very right about the breakout in the nasdaq. You planning to hold until the FOMC meeting or will sell when QQQ has reached a certain level?

  63. Alexandru Popovici

    DCLs in gold/miners/treasuries are most likely in.
    The moment I’ve been waiting for nearly 2 weeks is close — I’ll re-enter long gold on a swing low tomorrow.

  64. dboz

    Typical day, metals rising at end of the day, miners sell off. Big sell off again in miners today. The miners are pretty much dead at this point. Unless we get a major surge into new territory there is NO ONE investing in them. Volume is horrible. Other than gold bugs, no one cares. Same story, different day.

    Dollar dropped hard, gold dropped hard. Perfect sense.

    Silver bounced .23 today and miners reacted strongly……….DOWN.

    Gold jumped $10 off the lows today, who cares, sell your miners anyway.

    This is a one way trade, down. There is no upside. Spot prices down 3%, miners tank 20%.

      1. dboz

        Nah, we have much farther to go down. Gotta test lows somewhere. 5-7% daily drops is bullish. Especially when you have 8 down days in a row when spot has been rising.

  65. bluelagoon

    Alex – I don’t see what you’re seeing in that metals and miners don’t look like they are yet ready for a bounce?

    Also – I agree with you that NG looks like a good short very soon and in timing with seasonal…but GUSH is bouncing up today and the charts look bullish despite NG and oil both being down… this a sign of things to come?

  66. Goild


    Completed the thought with action: Got 2K JNUG shares so tomorrow morning I will have lunch money on automatic.

  67. Kruzoe

    I would like to see another 10-15 % cut in Jnug/Nugt. There is still too bullish sentiment on this board and elsewhere. Puke day is still ahead of us.

  68. Pedestrian

    Platinum lovers should see this chart:

    I just picked this up on one of my favourite sites (Goldtent TA) and thought the chart was compelling enough it just had to be linked. It is Platinum Group Metals (PGL) and it sure does look like its forming a bottom. Especially given that platinum and the industry have been beaten to ratshit the last while this one should have potential once metals form their bottom. Anyway, not a recommendation or anything since I have not had time to look at it closely. If anyone knows a reason to avoid it, besides the fact its losing money, speak now.

  69. Goild

    A last minute change sold the 2K JNUG shares and bough 1.3K NUGT shares to be consistent to be with the winners.

    1. Gary Post author

      The mistake most people make during the initial drop into an ICL is they buy too early.

      Gold will need to bounce at some point to set the pivot for the cycle down trend line, but I wouldn’t look for a final DCL until probably the FOMC meeting and maybe not until the employment report next week.

      DCL’s should create significant panic. That means almost everyone should be afraid to buy, not looking to buy quickly.

      1. Robert

        Hmm i thought it was mainly the intermediate cycle lows that create the panic. There have been cases where the daily cycles were shallow but thx for your thoughts

      2. primetime

        After awhile, the rhetoric turns into B.S. Everyone is afraid to buy and there has been selling panic. What does it matter Gary, you declared gold dead for the year. Why do you even pay attention, your cycles and charts have confirmed and told you so. If not, why make the statement for the entire year? We went from the greatest bull of a lifetime to DOA. If anyone buys the sector, you, Kruzoe, Christian etc. state it is too bullish so time to sell. It is just making up narrative to fit what the market is doing, whether the narrative is right or wrong. It becomes comical.

        1. Gary Post author

          Gold isn’t dead. What makes you think that?

          It’s just stuck in a basing pattern.

          The bigger the base, the bigger the rally will be out of the base.

          There’s no doubt in my mind that this will be the biggest bull market any of us will ever see. But it’s not going to be easy during the initial basing pattern.,

Comments are closed.