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Thanks for starting this new post Gary 🙂 The last one was starting to ramble on and on and on towards the end.
btw.. Gary, are you playing with ERX to capture the trend in energy this time around?
Miners have been so non-correlated to miners over the last bit here….
Kudos to Goild for being able to extract blood on a daily basis from the JNUG turnip.
I made over $5K from Gary’s Nasdaq call in a week – so he’s got the goods ( also did well last spring with his miners call but the worm has obviously turned).
Thanks for the kudos. I also got +$5.4K for the week, all days green. Though need to be careful with falling knifes. I am making reminders and flags to keep me alert and have made the commitment to master them.
Good for you on your $5K out of NASDAQ. Did you play a leveraged 3X fund? Can you share the trade details?
Simple. I wait for Gary to give call & I go in. I went TQQQ.
Gary bird dogs it & I shoot. Then its about what I am looking for profit/risk wise in terms of what I want & his narrative.
I know exactly where you are coming from with JNUG – I made over $150K last year with that. When you watch a particular stock you get a feel for it as us humans are pattern recognizing machines.
I am VERY impressed with your takes this year because JNUG operates on its own – the tight correlation with gold last year made it a piece of cake vs now!
So maybe I will wade back in with trader money some day for fun & to test my luck again –
I’m resigned currently to Bitcoin for my Old Turkey funds.
This is beat the desk with your shoe type a thing – Bitcoin will go $1500-$2500 in 2017 without COMEX beatdowns – it’s a sight to behold.
No one is gonna believe ( hell most haven’t even heard of it) till it pushes $10K & that will happen in 2020.
Love hearing your daily scores. It’s great to see the good guys win!
Another thing –
Gary catches turns. He uses the charts & is quite knowledgeable on TA but so are a lot of people that wait for the breakout & then say “buy”.
Oil, hope so. A sustained rally in oil is taking longer then I anticipated. MOst know March – September is seasonally strong for oil. LAtely added some solar stocks as they looked washed out and usually trade in synch with oil. SOld most of my PM miners mid Feb. awaiting … July. GOod luck.
I wouldn’t touch oil with a 50ft pole. Oil is key tool for the CB /DS to hurt Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
If gary posts videos where he talks about the CB hurting/manipulating miners, how on earth could the same thinking believe they wont try to put a thumb on oil to hurt the Russians and Iranians, etc.
If we had puppet goverments in Russia. Iran and Venzuela right now, inflated nventories would be of no concern, as they’d come up with a tall tale on why oil was 120brl right now.
Gold was weak on Friday. And silver even worst! Silver cot is even uglier than worst. Brace for it guys. A quote from “Taken” … “GOOD LUCK!!!”
We are at the edge of the channel both on the daily and weekly charts. Friday might have been a taste of what can come due to world events, or it was an anomaly that presto corrected and will keep going down as further indicated by silver, and the TNX cycle. No way to know but to be ready to get on board either way.
Robert, don’t miss Ped’s two rules as posted yesterday. They are excellent and reflect maturity/mastering on trading.
Zkotpen, thanks for the suggestion about reading Castaneda. I tried a couple of times The teachings of Don Juan, but cannot go through. I guess my left brain does not work very well. I need organized, linear reading. Same for today’s music, I cannot make sense out of it.
I am working on the occasional/painful bad habit of plunging, doubling, tripling, or more into the falling knife. The more you buy into the falling knife the more one gets hooked. I need to make falling knifes an asset. So I am marking my JNUG charts with a horizontal red line to sell not matter what shall JNUG crosses it. And a vertical line to check on time what the MOMO is saying about the direction of the day. If the MOMO says the day is a bad one then go shorting. The vertical line to be adjusted every half hour, and to keep me on guard. It is like silly, but habits are very powerful and they can hit you easily when you are tired, off-guard, euphoric. let us see how this technique works. I also have some cards with warnings by my monitor. Have also considered and will try doing imaginary exercises as I wake up.
Any suggestion to mange the doubling, tripling, quadrupling falling knife plunging habit is welcome.
Have a great Sunday.
My next video will cover what I think is likely to play out in the stock market over the next couple of weeks.
I’ll have it up in an hour or two.
Nice video Gary.
Another way of pointing out Bob Evan’s analogy
of backing up to jump the creek.
Actually, the turnaround in the oil sector was picked up much earlier by double bottoms in integrated oils like MUR and aggressive price action in COP, GUSH, etc. Interesting to see cycle folks chiming in now.
We bought our initial position on Mar. 28th.
That’s the advantage of having an SMT subscription. You get real time trades. 🙂
The Gold and PM Sector Gap up on Friday was a classic Bull Trap, IMO and was very likely the Intermediate Cycle High. That was my view right at the open when I put this post together (check out the before and after chart on SLV.
My thought as well and I tried to warn traders not to get too excited about a move occurring this late in the daily cycle.
There will be better buying opportunities when the weekly stochastics cycle back down to oversold. There’s no need to chase gold this late in the cycle trying to catch every last penny, and risk getting caught at the top.
Agreed, I have never seen a “Breakaway Gap” near a Cycle top ever.
Breakaway gaps are found near major cycle lows. So when prices gapped up on Friday across the PM Sector, it was a big warning flag for me. Saw the same thing in the SPX at the end of Feb.
Oil is into a seasonally strong period and should do well until mid-summer.
Goild, I love to play roulette (single zero, European style) and understand it’s mathematics perfectly. it is impossible to win over the long term but it is sure fun trying. Anyway, you mentioned doubling down on your bets as a habit. I can tell you that on a simple red or black bet, doubling down on a loss works fabulously about 95%of the time, provided you have plenty of cash. It’s the 5% when it doesn’t work that either bankrupts you or you run up against a house limit. I suspect the same would apply to playing derivatives such as JNUG. Although there is no house limit, doubling down will eventually cause heavy losses or total bankruptcy if one has self imposed limit. Good luck because you will need it. You are really just gambling, not investing. Just my two cents.
+1 — That’s what I kept trying to tell that little bundle of joy. Unfortunately, people are stubborn.. and sometimes a little to proud [or stupid in some cases] to see the error in their ways 🙂 The worst part about it is that as long as he’s making money; he’ll keep doing it. That’s how you develop a bad habit.
Folks.. This may sound counterintuitive to most of you, but trading isn’t just about the Money. It’s about HOW you execute a trade. It’s about having a strategy that is both soundproof and consistent, with the discipline to back it up.
Sometimes the worst thing that can happen is to make money with a poor strategy. You become convinced you are smart when in reality you just got lucky. Eventually your luck runs out and you lose everything.
The example I gave several days ago about the Bollinger band crash trade comes to mind. One can win over and over with the trade. You think you are on to something but over time you will consistently lose money even though the vast majority of your trades are winners. They just aren’t big enough winners to compensate for the few big losers.
It seems to me after following this blog for a long time, many on here are the best in the world at timing this market. They very rarely suffer a losing trade, and if they do, they recover almost back to even. There are boasts and brags of returns that Peter Lynch never even could dream about.
With all the winners, most beating the market by many multiple percent over, why bother with SMT?
Anyone playing this market who doesn’t think luck is involved is dangerous. Every day is a guess about big money’s intention and is discussed here.
DBOZ, BigDaddy, Don, 70’s, they seem truthful and more reliable.
Any clarification is appreciated.
Most regular gamblers I talk to never lose money, they always win big or were down and broke even. But casinos sure are fancy places.
The vast majority of newsletters will never offer a real time portfolio. Those that do will almost always just give you entries. They leave the exit up to you. That way they can claim to have made a winning trade as it was your fault if you didn’t exit correctly.
However the exit is 10X harder than the entry. Entries are easy.
This is why I’m such an easy target for the trolls because I actually make real time trades, both entries and exits. Every time I have a losing trade they fall all over themselves to publicize it. When I have a winning trade though they never bother to mention it. But the fact is our winning trades are outweighing our losing trades and we are making consistent money (except in the energy portfolio, but that may be about to change).
So if your favorite guru isn’t actually making both entries and EXITS, and doing it in real time you can pretty much assume you are just paying for entertainment, not actual strategies that have a chance to make real money.
One of the most obvious clues that a newsletter is BS is if the guru claims to have an almost spotless winning record. The best in the world rarely get it right more than 60% of the time and some of the best in the world only get it right 20-30% of the time. Anyone who tries to tell you they win 80-90% of the time is flat out lying to you. Save your money. The only way they are winning that much is by covering all the bases with alternate scenarios. One of them will turn out to be correct and that is the one the analyst will pick to keep his record intact.
Thanks Gary, I understand and experience what you state. My post was directed at your trolls who talk and present themselves as all-knowing, immaculate traders who claim that 80% success rate. I will continue to follow blog and contemplate possible subscription.
I knew you were talking about the fleas 🙂
Although Peter Lynch was/is very smart in his own way, he had a fairly secure deal: playing with someone else money and at almost no personal financial risk. That makes things quite different.
Here if we lose is either, hopefully profit, or hard earned money. The emotional aspect is quite different and substantial.
The advantages are that we can move money a lot easier than Peter could and the amounts too were/are very different. He would manage billions, and we nearly crumps.
The big brokerage firms have a very sweat deal, they make money whether the market goes up or down. They charge such modest fees like 1/2% – 1% but over billions. Though they probably have other kind of big problems like big lawsuits.
Thanks goild, I understand. I believe you to be truthful, and very helpful.
Yeap, bad trading habits in the long run cost. Good trading habits produce money.
We are going to find out how I do. Let us see if I convert a bad habit into an asset.
That is the challenge.
And we all have bad habits, it is not just myself alone.
Now I am cooking a delicious meal. I will try to fix a wonderful plum sauce.
Thanks for commenting.
I guess the problem I am addressing is more subtle. The thing is that even you know about the problem, you take precautions to avoid it, it still can sneak in. And when it happens you loose objectivity, rationality, and hope, adherence, stubbornness, careless, set in. The mind can play with one.
Well, we shall see.
FREE report… grab a beer…its long…
Thanks MegaMind, it helped me with view on natgas.
Just short Russia. (RUSS) Then you be very, very happy. Up over 9% Friday. Russia mad at Trump now. Russia going down big time. Trump no longer nice to Russia. RUSS going to the moon.
Mega Mind. Info on link all wrong. It say Oil going down with gold. Gary say oil going up. I believe Gary.
Solar stocks are looking attractive right now.