107 thoughts on “SENTIMENT

  1. Christian

    Gary β€” Someone mentioned a ‘Max Word Count’ when you post on this forum, which I think is a great idea. Can you set that up on the back end using WordPress..?

    I don’t wanna have to spend 10 minutes scrolling through a bunch over-indulgent nonsense from you know who :/

      1. sheena

        Personally the reason I come here is to read Pedestrian.
        Although if there was an ignore button for you I would certainly use it.

        1. Christian

          Believe you me babe ~ If the only reason you come here is to read the superfluous verbiage of some internet gnome, than Sheena baby.. I WANT YOU to go ahead and use that button πŸ™‚

  2. Robert

    Gold is already running strong tonight. I dont think the daily cycle will hit those low sentiment levels, the DCL looks like its in alrdy Gary. This coul have just been a mild DCL

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s up $3 and hasn’t even recovered the 10 day moving average. This is your definition of strong?

      Somewhere soon we should get a weak bounce so we can get the pivot to construct the cycle down trend line.

      The same for the miners. They got stretched too far below the 10 day moving average. They need to bounce or trade sideways to give the 10 some time to catch up to price.

      I doubt the DCL will form until gold generates a Bollinger band crash signal and the banksters drive GDX below the March low. They will want to create a panic to cover their shorts into.

      1. Robert

        Lol Fair enough I guess your sticking to your belief. There is also the scenario where gold will will that overhead gap at 1280s before heading down to your DCL. Its looking like that at the moment but we will see

        1. Gary Post author

          One can always day trade the long side even in a decline. But it’s always dangerous to trade against the larger trend. And the miners have already signaled that the ICL has begun.

  3. jake

    More likely as you said earlier there could be another stop hunt in gold after the French elections and things cool things down, especially if Emmanuel Macron wins. A repeat of the front running on the miners like last February?
    Just for kicks where do estimate the cycles on Aug. 29?

  4. vin

    I am soooo excited. JNUG is now above my buying price. LOL!
    Just a question of time before it reaches 1000. In fact it requires only two 10 to 1 reverses in a row, one after another!
    And, I had started to doubt this great investment?

    1. Gary Post author

      Watch silver. If it fails to produce any kind of significant bounce then you know gold isn’t done with it’s DCL.

    2. Christian

      I still think Miners are moving ahead of Gold and those 2 charts you’ve just posted right above prove my point πŸ˜‰

      Wham bam thank you ma’am..!

      1. Gary Post author

        Food for thought. My biggest loss came while trying to catch a short term long trade in a third daily cycle.

        Third daily cycles are dangerous as they are the left translated cycle.

        This is what happens. Traders remember the previous rally and they expect it to continue. So they want to buy the dip. If they are too early they get caught in the panic of a DCL (which is what I think is going to happen here). If they manage to avoid the DCL they end up buying right about the time the third daily cycle tops then most stay on the slope of hope all the way down into the ICL.

        Folks take a step back and look at what is happening to the miners. That alone should tell you something is seriously wrong with the metals. I warned people that the miners were not acting correctly, but instead everyone made excuses for why it was different this time.

        It wasn’t….

        And then on the other hand I warned people that the bull wasn’t over. The Trump rally wasn’t over. We were going to make new highs. Again I got all kinds of excuses for why it was different this time. The advance decline line didn’t mean anything anymore. Too many non operating companies in the NYSE.

        Again it wasn’t different this time…

          1. Gary Post author

            The sad thing is that we’ve already made back all those losses and more. We’re higher now than we were at the summer peak.

            If they had just stuck around they would all be very happy right now.

            But like I always say most people never make a dime in the markets.

  5. Gary Post author

    Oil on the other hand is forming a coil. I presume it will break lower and then reverse back up after completing it’s DCL.

  6. zkotpen

    macman,

    Sorry about the Huckel Berry comment, mate. Also, note that I did thank you for your comment, and I meant it. Being a weirdo, stuff makes perfect sense to me, but I really need some idea of how others might interpret it. Cheers!

  7. dboz

    I see many miners hitting oversold and turning up. I see silver about to launch. I am not sure about gold but if gold tanks I doubt silver runs.

    I am going to stick with the analysis that in a bull market gold should stay overbought for long periods. This is not a long period.

    Call me stubborn and an ignorant bug. I just started into the metals in the last year and a half.

    I am sticking with my thesis. The sideline sitters and the shorts are going to be the fuel for a big leg up, if we are in a bull. If we drop to the depths of ashes again, we are not in a bull as longs will be punished, shorts rewarded and sideline sitters will be right to have waited.. The sector is pummeled and bloody already. I lost 30k on one day in Feb. It did not get better for weeks. Many miners are already below December lows. To continue to drop lower can only be bearish. Lower highs and lower lows. No new highs anywhere since last summer. I can’t see this huge drop predicted yet to come propel us to those highs? The ramp up from there would require another baby bull 6 month move. Maybe it’s staring me in the face and I just refuse to see it that we have much lower to fall.

    I thought bull market surprise to the upside? All we get are expected drops that are very deep. No one should buy dips, only buy the bloodbaths that come frequently and last for weeks. Then ride the upside for a quick ride that ends suddenly and then drops significantly again so anyone coming in along the way gets punished and burned.

    Until a large move comes that scares the bears and their shorts and creates FOMO, we aren’t going anywhere
    I will continue to hold and take the pain. We are getting close to just reverting to Bear market patterns.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold isn’t in a trending bull yet. It’s in a basing pattern. These are difficult to trade and mostly go nowhere for long periods of time.

      Once we break out of the basing pattern then we should get nice trending moves and the surprises will come to the upside. Right now the surprise is how long the sector can churn sideways and go nowhere.

      1. jake

        Looking for some trading opportunities to build and add in the accumulation phase and there are two parts down and up. Breakouts are harder to judge.

    2. Don

      I agree with dboz. If we are in a bull market , gold should not correct as deeply as Gary is expecting. We
      have already had a a six month correction that finally ended in December. I see the worst case scenario as being gold dropping to the 1240-1250 area. If it starts taking out the December lows. I would be very cautious about getting long in a big way.

      1. Don

        And then we have Ped deciding that gold is in a bear market, for sure this time. I take that as a bullish omen.

        1. Pedestrian

          Gold is still trading within its falling trend channel established at the peak in 2011. That is not in dispute by any analyst I know of. Each time price reaches the top of its channel and turns down instead of breaking through channel resistance, the bear pattern is confirmed for another cycle.

          We are at that stage now, having stopped short of topside resistance and seen gold fail.

          So it is a fact we are still in a bear market and it would help if you stopped misleading everyone here by implying this trend is anything other than what it is. There are novices to gold who come to this site and when you create doubt like you are doing you are leading them into taking risks with gold investments that could result in serious losses.

          It was you who said you are a 40 year veteran of the markets so you should obviously know better. Why not show people here what you really know about technicals and try to help out some of the newcomers instead of constantly sending them into obvious traps.

          Or is your moral compass permanently broken?

  8. CooLoser

    Hi Gary,
    I’d be very interested to see a long term chart of where you think Gold is headed and when?

  9. primetime

    “Greatest BULL MARKET of a lifetime in the pm” (if you can live to 200 years old). Almost all the “experts” have said this. Remember, they know. Cant you tell?

    They are so convincing, especially when they change their tune by the hour, day, and week.

    The experts over enthusiasm and outrageous statements is what allows them to make money. Period.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well I did call the bottom in Dec when no one wanted to buy. And I called the top virtually to the day when no one wanted to sell.

      When I’m the only one buying and everyone thinks I’m an idiot, you need to be buying.

      Wen I’m the only one selling and everyone thinks I’m an idiot again. You need to be selling.

  10. Bob

    lol, where’s Robert when gold needs him? Apparently gold just needed a chance to go kiss the 23.6 fib in the sky at 1273 and is now headed down to take out the 38.2 Fib at 1258 on the way to the 50 Fib at 1246. We’ll see if it grounds out there.

  11. jacob2

    Sentiment on oil must be through the floor. Many individual issues making double and multi bottoms. Prefer putting money here rather then gold. As always, miners can wait till July.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s kind of hovering around in neutral right now at 43% bulls.

      It made it to 39% bulls in March. I would have liked to see it a bit lower but I think the Syrian mess muddied the cycles.

      1. Robert

        Hmm looks like your right so far lot of selling in gold tonight after that fake move. It looks like it was a flag pattern and the daily stochastic on gold needs to hit oversold before the DCL. So maybe 1250s is the time to go long for a dead cat bounce

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ll say again, that trying to catch a long trade in a third daily cycle is dangerous. Third daily cycles become left translated and then the ICL continues. The miners have already indicted an ICL has begun.

          It’s usually best to just wait for the panic at the bottom of the ICL and then buy.

          Just wait till I become bullish and everyone thinks I’m crazy to be buying. That’s your buy signal.

  12. Gary Post author

    Silver making another lower low.

    Folks this isn’t over yet.

    We usually get a Bollinger band crash signal before the DCL is finished. That’s the sign of panic selling. That’s what DCL’s should do. They should turn sentiment bearish to the point traders can’t pull the trigger. I’ve seen way too many people anxious to buy still and no real fear yet.

    I want to see some comments like “I’ll never trade this worthless piece of crap sector every again”.

    When we start seeing that then it’s time to start buying.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m looking for a spot to add to shorts now. I’m expecting a break of the March lows before the selling is done.

        1. Robert

          I don’t care what anybody wants to say about you, you have been right more than wrong and cycle analysis is far superior to Elliot Waves

    1. primetime

      Start buying for what? A minor 4-6 week run if that? Then more pain and crash because too bullish. It is not a bull market.

      1. primetime

        The pm market is only good for day trading and shorts. It is not going to be “The greatest bull market”.

      2. Gary Post author

        I don’t know how many different ways I can say this. Gold is stuck in a basing pattern. There won’t be any strong trends either up or down during this period.

        Accept it and trade it accordingly or don’t trade it.

        Gold has to finish the basing pattern before it can give us what we all want and that’s a return to the good ole bull market days where price went up and good gains were made.

        The only way to make money now is by buying panic and selling the rallies. Gold isn’t in a long term hold phase yet.

          1. Pedestrian

            For the very short term I am looking at gold bouncing back up. The upper target I have is 1295 / 1296 however politics may intervene and stop gold short of there (or in a crazy world we see gold break out of its 6 year bear market).

            So I am short-term bullish but playing it by ear. No heroics. No holding overnight and no gambles until we get some political resolution in Europe and see what the Euro does. A second test of the upper trendline channel is expected here followed by gold going into a multi week decline and taking miners down with it.

            This idea is supported by the Yen/$ chart which appears to me to be in the process of forming a head and shoulders pattern during March and April period. The right shoulder should fill during the first two weeks of this month before turning Yen back down. That conveniently takes us into the ugly season for metals.

            http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=d1

            If Yen breaks that pattern at any time however the program changes.

  13. zkotpen

    This has just been taking me longer than I thought, because the market moves are corrective, and therefore a bit complex. And I’m still fine-tuning my new charting inputs from last weekend. Most relevant modifications are the chart settings 1 degree above and 1 degree below the daily cycle: Intermediate and minute degrees.

    Saturday, I thought that I was in agreement with Gary on both DCL and ICL for miners. Now, I’m not so sure about the intermediate term. But we can concern ourselves with that later.

    More timely, I am in the same camp as Gary on the Daily Cycle decline — it looks like another move down is in the works for GDX, to take out the March lows, as he described yesterday (I can’t hear today’s video with my computer in safe mode).

    Spot gold just got batted down at 1271, generating a top at minute degree (one degree lower than daily cycle degree). So far, the nature of that top appears corrective, meaning, I think the minute degree bounces are correcting against the larger daily cycle trend, which continues to point down.

    Once the signals stop looking that way, that will indicate a daily cycle pivot into its next move up. Then those same signals at daily degree should indicate which direction the larger intermediate cycle is moving with greater probability.

    That is what I mean when I talk about fractals.

    That is what I mean when I say I want to see the subsequent bounce before getting too much into seeing the December low taken out — It might, but also might not. But there’s need to trade the intermediate cycle — in this trading environment, it makes the most strategic sense to stick to trading daily or minute degree cycles — or even minuet degree for those nimble traders. But by no means backing up any truck or whatever.

    Back during our discussion in late February, when gold was making higher highs but GDX was not, Gary pointed out he thought gold was forming a triangle of yearly degree, something I hadn’t even really considered. I have been looking at the possibility of a triangle one degree higher than yearly — at cycle degree. Then, I realized it would be highly prudent to look for triangles — or some such form of flat (consolidation) correction — at ANY and ALL degrees. First idea that came to me was a triangle of INTERMEDIATE degree in miners.

    Seems like these corrective trends are nicely illustrated in The Alchemist:

    “There are powerful forces on both sides, and the war is important to both armies. It’s not a battle of good against evil. It’s a war between forces that are fighting for the balance of power, and, when that type of battle begins, it lasts longer than othersβ€”because Allah is on both sides.”

    Never realized The Alchemist was about trading markets πŸ™‚

  14. zkotpen

    PS: To clarify: I agree GDX is in a daily cycle decline. Whether it is likely to take out the December low is something I’m still working on & watching for.

    1. zkotpen

      Oops — sorry — I agree GDX is in an Intermediate decline… not sure whether that takes out the December low or not.

  15. earthkitten

    Incredibly, sentiment in the stock market leaning toward a bearish bias.
    Forget gold. Stocks the place to be right now. Like Gary said. Gold’s day
    to shine will come later.

  16. primetime

    Stocks should go to the moon tomorrow. Congress passed a 1 trillion plus spending bill to keep government funded all the way through Sept. WOW.

    Now cut taxes, and it will be 2 trillion plus. Grandma, raise those rates. Lets make all that debt even more expensive.

    Give me some undervalued stock like Amazon, Google, FB asap!

    1. Gary Post author

      When you have a printing press debt doesn’t mean much. The real worry is that eventually you break the currency.

      I think that’s where we’re eventually headed.

  17. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    I, 4 1, appreciated your little piece on forbearance. Of course it was gonna be controversial. As for the relevance, well, I happen to have read “Think and Grow Rich”, which is in the same general category, that of making money and building wealth. I’ve also read Ben Franklin’s Autobiography, as well as Carlos Castaneda’s The Fire from Within — all extolling not the virtues of forbearance so much as its value in our dealing with energy.

    When we look at our resources that each individual and family deals with, all we have is energy. Material energy is embedded in money and then there’s sexual energy. Sure, there’s also emotional and intellectual energy.

    But so often the wild card is the sexual energy — squander it at your peril. Or, reign it in and channel it… and see where that takes you.

    1. Pedestrian

      It’s probably no surprise that some of the worlds greatest artists, poets, inventors remained single and abstinent for long periods of time as they channeled sexual energy into works of art and brilliant creative endeavors. Monks for example have long since discovered that energy lost to relationships with women was deducted from their pursuit of spiritual enlightenment. The idea is as old as written history itself and the concept has been passed down anecdotally in every story we hear of someone achieving greatness while suffering a life of celibacy. I suppose the truth is that there is only so much capacity in our brains and relationships are just so taxing that we should easily understand that when choosing carnal pleasure over introspection and reflection that something will suffer in our professional lives and we won’t likely ever reach the potential that we were born with. I have noticed more than a few great artists who solved the problem with a periodic tryst laced with liberal amounts of alcohol and prostitutes.

      So much for genius!

      1. zkotpen

        Where you talk about mental capacity, I’m looking at it in terms of energy — semantics, I reckon.

        Still, there is a way to tap into that intuition that can be utterly transformational. Of course the first step is to stop taking every single thing in the world for granted — to break the rigid adherence to belief. But one can’t be squandering one’s energy all over the place. One of my vehicles is the audiobooks. I let them take me right into their world… emotionally. In order to do that, you need to smash Cartesian notions of time and space to smithereens. Otherwise, you’ll never get there.

        Lately, everything points to elimination of bias, breaking rigid attachment to beliefs. One area in which I’m working on that is trading. Another is Buddhism. And the audiobooks… There are a lot of places we can go, if we can break down those barriers. I am convinced that’s what it takes to steadily build one’s equity and avoid large drawdowns.

        Then, “for some reason”, I find myself listening to The Alchemist, and I’m drawn to that last part, with complete certainty that it’s all about the trading, with signals, guideposts, caveats. Even after I’ve put the audiobook away, I can just close my eyes and I’m transported to the desert, living out each moment, emotionally. All of these details rise to my consciousness, all having to do with my trading going forward. Things I stumbled over or ignored before.

        That requires energy and intense focus. I am hungry for results and cannot be squandering energy all over the place.

  18. zkotpen

    primetime, vin,

    Not changing my tune. This is a highly complex pattern.

    Still on the same DAILY cycle forecast.

    Still generally bearish on the GDX’s intermediate cycle, but not sure just how much — I want to see more price action, to resolve some of the complexity. But who’s trading intermediate cycles anyway? They are too complex and unresolved at present to go too far out on a limb.

    Why not keep trying with the Intermediate, but really see if one can nail down the daily cycle, and trade one degree below that (minute wave)?

    But no, I can’t tell you where gold and GDX will be 3 months out — at least not with reasonable probability of being correct,, not yet anyway. I’m pulling my forecast in close, there’s a reason for that, so take note of the reason… or not, if you prefer.

  19. Dday

    “…Gold falls toward 3-week low after Congress reaches spending deal”

    Says it all, Friday was simply a hedge at the possibility of no deal. Golds downtrend in my opinion will continue…..

  20. Gary Post author

    The next intermediate cycle will be the one where gold finally breaks through the bear market trend line, and breaks out of the triangle consolidation that it’s been in since the election.

    1. Gary Post author

      We should see a lot of these kind of articles as we continue down into the ICL, but gold won’t get anywhere near 1050.

      I doubt the ICL shaves off more than 100-120 points. Probably around 1180 is my best guess. But it’s going to feel worse because the banksters are going to try to crush the mining stocks to setup another baby bull.

  21. Bob

    That one for four split in JDST was a bit of a Monday morning shocker when looking at the premarket.

  22. jake

    Trump strategy of throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks makes for a poor batting average. Tax relief is DOA.

  23. Goild

    Good morning,

    Now we have the reverse split in JNUG and NUGT.
    We will see how things work.
    Good trading to all.

  24. primetime

    I talked to a resident expert on pm today and gold will go up, down, or stay the same. He will update everyone at closing. Happy trading.

  25. Goild

    The rats have become much more greedy.
    Slippage has doubled and quadrupled.
    The action is faster, and challenging.
    Switched back to JNUG as it is slower.
    On the positive side if timing is right more money flows in.
    Good trading to all.

  26. primetime

    Did anyone’s copper chart show this move today? Just curious. Silver could do the same at any time for no reason whatsoever.

    1. Don

      Yep, copper is on the move. Maybe the world’s economies are in better shape than what we have been led to believe.

  27. Goild

    Have now lunch money.
    I hope not to loose it and make more.
    Wise and good trading to all.

    1. JJHarmen

      Nobody cares about your lunch money. Why waste your time typing out such silliness and what is RATS?

  28. ras

    some pm stocks are already close to march lows, and some dec low. gdx is still above the intra day low made 4 day ago.

    1. jacob2

      Fwiw: Also been watching the rize of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies important in block chain and electronic commerce ie. amazon. The world always changing and this could well be the new big thing. Perhaps as an x gold bug site we’re all fighting the last war and the game has moved on?

  29. JJHarmen

    GDP looks like it will be 0.7% and the market goes up relentlessly. Makes perfect sense.

    1. Gary Post author

      GDP is a backwards looking number and worthless for trading. I went over this before as well. The market is looking ahead at the potential for some kind of tax cut and a big surge in GDP.

  30. Don

    Apple, Google and Amazon all soaring this morning and doing their part to make the market look strong.

  31. Gary Post author

    Ped,
    I think I have you figured out πŸ™‚

    You’re a serial reversal hunter. Riding a trend isn’t your thing so you are always looking for reversals. I would have to admit the only way to make money with that kind of mentality is by day trading.

  32. 1970confused

    Silver down 12 days in a row and no one is talking about it, just a normal market right?! Was the Dow down 12 days last year????? Gary and you said there is no more manipulation in the metals anymore LMAO!!!!!!!

    1. dboz

      We had 14 days down in silver in November. Of course silver was at least $2 lower then also. Miners are a disaster and the bear market in miners should confirm the metals will follow and remain in a bear market for some extended time frame. I should have just cut my losses, but am too stubborn. Looks like this will be a massive loss for at least a couple of more years if not longer.

      Miners continue to report losses and they just do not have the capital to survive another huge downturn so I would expect many of them to close or declare bankruptcy. There is no need for exploration or development as no one buys the product and there is minimal demand outside of India, China and Russia.

      The sector is joke to be involved in and there are surely many other places to put your money.

      There is no bull and there will be no bull in the metals or the miners. TPTB will be have made certain of that. Maybe in 20 years if all goes right, we will get another 6 month counter trend rally and I will then have a chance to get back to even.

  33. Robert

    GDXJ made a new low today but gold still in 1260s. Daily cycle low should come soon maybe by tomorrow or FED day

  34. cazabrujas

    The miners seem to be moving down quicker than I thought. GDXJ already broke the low of Apr 26 temporarily, and GDX is pretty close to it too. If both GDX and GDXJ convincingly cross today below 21.68 and 31.25 respectively, we might see a major hemorrhage. Of course, this thing could turn around very quickly and go back up, but I doubt it.

  35. Gary Post author

    I tried to warn everyone that this wasn’t over. And even when we do get a bounce out of the DCL it’s going to be left translated.

    Stay on the sidelines and don’t be trying to catch the bounce out of this DCL. Instead try to cover shorts at the DCL and then re enter on the bounce.

    I’ll say it again: Third daily cycles are dangerous.

    1. cazabrujas

      I got into JDST this morning. When I saw gold moving up aggressively and the miners were not moving much, I knew it was time to get in, so now I am riding the miners all the way down. πŸ™‚

    2. jacob2

      Not just gold but everything commodity related headed down. No green shoots for anything you get from the ground this spring.

    3. Robert

      The bounce out of the DCL should be good for at least 2 days so its a good quick trade

  36. Gary Post author

    If the S&P breaks out to new highs that will really impact gold. That’s when we should get the final DCL.

    1. cazabrujas

      If Macron wins on Sunday, it would give the S&P a nice push up to break the highs.

    2. primetime

      What do you mean if, you have already called for 20,000-30,000 nasdaq, surely S&P will follow. This parabolic blow off top over the next year and half.

  37. bill

    So glad I am out of the Metals arena for now…Sector is going much lower. Less headaches just observing AND NOT PLAYING.

  38. Gary Post author

    Now I’m starting to hear the kind of despair typical at DCL’s. Miners need to break the March lows so the banksters can cover into a selling panic.

    1. dboz

      OK, and then what would be the driver to run them higher? Gold already moved up and miners did not follow. Why would they follow this time after the third bloodbath in 9 months?

      1. Gary Post author

        I don’t know how many different ways I can say this. The banksters are trying to create the conditions for a second baby bull. You can follow along behind them and make a boat load of money. Or, you can stand on the tracks in front of them and get run over.

        I’ve been prepping everyone for this for weeks now.

        You guys have got to stop listening to the day traders. There is a huge opportunity coming this summer. It’s not too late to get off the tracks and then take advantage of it later. Even if you take a 50% loss right now. you should be able to make that back in 2-3 weeks coming out of the next ICL.

        I’m going to do a video on this. Way too many people sitting like a dear in headlights when they don’t have to.

  39. dboz

    BITCOIN, mission accomplished. A crypto currency is now $200 more valuable than gold. The BULL in BITCOIN is for real.

  40. zbigkid

    Its so fun to watch gold get slammed. Even though I hold a lot of physical, the reason its fun, is that it makes all the average Joe’s very leary to hold it. It is so under-owned compared to every asset on the planet, its not even worth the measurement or comparison. No asset class as EVER been this under-owned and hated in all of modern time. That’s what makes it so very stupid to attempt to trade it. The best advantage that I have over everyone else, is patience. Anyone buying stocks has near zero patience and is truly expecting a near term reward. Anyone buying real estate or bonds also has worse patience than those buying stocks. Stocks would recover faster even with a 90% crash, than either bonds or real estate would after their impending crash. But the masses are deluded by the virtual 40 year interest rate decrease (bond bull), thinking it will never change, or believing it can’t change and that such and such won’t let that market actually crash. Jeremy Siegel says stocks are in a perfect goldilocks scenario, implying not only can they not ever go down, but that they will keep on rising in perpetuity. I laugh. When people say garbage like that, it creates an ever bigger herd following, where people can’t stand getting ‘left behind.’ This is when every single bear throws in the towel. Forever swearing off shorting the market, and plowing their money (most of which they already lost) back into stocks. This is when people come to regret not getting in at the ‘bottom’ back in 2009. Some even commit suicide, or stay in a permanent state of depression. They think how could I have been so stupid, and believe they have missed a once in a lifetime opportunity. Well, the psychology of it all is this – anyone in the market today that happened to ride up the QE catalyzed rocket ride, will also not be able to know when or why to get out when it goes down. It’ll go down 60 and 70% before they even contemplate getting out, and then it will go down to levels far lower than 2009. Certainly a few will take money off the table along the way, but they’ll lose most of what they made, for the same reasons they stayed in the market in the first place. Its the false illusion that stocks remained in a bull market, when in reality they only stayed propped due to massive monetary intervention. Stocks are worth no more today than they were back in 2009, because all the purchasing power of those stocks cashed out at that time, has literally vanished. Oh sure you think you can buy some things as cheaply as then, but they are not what you need to live. when the masses feel like they are winning, then you know the losses are huge.

    1. bill

      I to own mostly physical Gold….Ive been depleting my Physical silver supplies, but not Gold. Im no longer interested in the sector but will always hold some form of physical metal.

  41. bluelagoon

    All I’m hearing from Raymond James to everyone else is that the markets are making new highs and this could be another leg up in the SM. The charts are looking to me though as if the same trickery that happens in May is about to happen again – that is – everyone gets fooled into thinking there won’t be a “Sell in May” this year…..and YET IT WILL HAPPEN. Perhaps the Fed meeting or the jobs report this Fri will be the catalyst. And yes, the markets will likely continue higher but is it likely there won’t be a May/June correction? Seems doubtful to me.

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