There will be two events next week capable of acting as the event trigger to reverse the current trends. One is the FOMC meeting (least likely in my opinion as there will be no surprises) and the other will be the French elections (most likely in my opinion).

I’m going to go over the ramifications for gold and stocks in the weekend report. One or the other should produce the DCL in gold, and possibly a top and maybe deeper correction in the stock market.
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  1. ras

    Deeper correction in the SM possible(sell on election news syndrome). Putting aside lone ranger nas, sm is bumping against a ceiling. Whatever happens in the elections will be used by analysts and news media as after-the-fact rationalisation bringing in causal relationship.

    One could reach different conclusions wrt pms, if he looks under the hood instead of looking at gld/gdx alone. Significant pm stock universe is not very large, around 50. Anyone can go to stock charts and draw one’s own conclusions. The bounce in pms could last for several days and extend beyond the date of election result announcement. Time will tell.

  2. pacoquin

    about Gold I dont know.. in fact.. I doubt you know.
    About stocks yes.. dont know dates.. but I expect first a top around 2420-2430.. y back tu 2340 aprx.
    I foresee for SP500 a flat zigzag in next coming weeks-months but making higher highs
    Its my opinion anyway at this moment

    1. Pedestrian

      I suspect most people don’t know what is happening with metals, Pacoquin.

      There is still widespread disbelief in the precious metals community that gold and silver remain in ongoing bear markets and the large number of analysts feeding into the idea that a big bounce is imminent (later this year for sure!) only fuels the sense of certainty that this drought must be near an end.

      That victory bounce is not assured by any means though and I think the charts have already told us so. In a few minutes I will explain why but let me first torture the bugs with a brief commentary on the obvious failure to accept facts and be reasonable in their expectations.

      Chart reading is obviously not so easy as it looks (except with 20/20 hindsight).

      We know that by how five different people can come to 5 different conclusions about what any given chart is telling us. And even when the occasional analysts are coming to the correct conclusions there are so many others ready and willing to pour cold water on their alternate ideas that casual readers are rarely convinced by what they have said.

      And so the loyalists remain blindly unconvinced even after a good analysis turns out to be correct.

      Part of the problem may be that the guys who do get it right are so few in number. Another is that they are not usually the people who are most vocal in their statements. Instead of expressing themselves with confidence they are often timid in their approach if not actually apologetic. And too often they cave in to the sheer ferocity and volume of the gold bugs response as a chorus of objections drown out the voices of anyone who says things that don’t fit the popular narrative.

      And what is the popular narrative?

      Well it goes like this. The Federal Reserve with the support of the worlds major Central Banks have created so much artificial money (and indirectly so much credit) that eventually it must stimulate massive inflation and therefore substantially benefit the prices of gold and silver.

      Gold and silver bugs in this scenario will naturally get the last laugh and be handsomely rewarded for their many years of steadfast loyalty to their chosen relic. Perhaps the golden relic will even retake the monetary mantle and become money once more thus vindicating the PM enthusiasts that they were smarter than the Federal Reserve after all.

      And yet in spite of all those interventions by authorities the fabled resumption of the bull market in precious metals has continued to defy the enthusiasts. Years have passed and both gold and silver have continued to trend down with only periodic bear market rally’s to show for all the love and effort.

      But instead of contrite apologies from the purveyors of a manipulative narrative that an impending golden Nirvana has arrived (or soon will), we are instead entreated and regaled with fresh rationalizations each day for why this year will finally be different and the Phoenix will rise from the ashes to save our sorry metals portfolios.

      You might think the audience would finally learn.

      Sadly no. The hope that lives in the heart of gold bugs is beating so strongly that even those who investment accounts have been utterly destroyed and their golden dreams smashed to smithereens on the rocks of disappointment, continue to soldier on as they bravely carry the torch aloft so others might see the light and follow in their footsteps.

      In short, what is most precious is objectivity and in the gold community there is very little of that.

      To prove this point I want to refer you to a chart that is in substantial disagreement with the idea metals are anywhere near to a price renaissance nor a return to the torrid days of an out of control boom. In this chart there are a few excellent clues that something is amiss in the conclusion that the bear market has ended. Fortunately it is very easy to locate the anomaly I want to refer you too.

      But I think its very strange nobody ever discusses it.

      The chart I refer to today is of silver. In this case it is the monthly chart stretching back 25 years in time.

      What should stand out without any explanation being required is that the silver price rose with an astonishing thrust skyward and went into a parabolic peak in 2011 before exhausting itself and crashing violently back to Earth.

      The second obvious feature of this chart is the right side of the image since 2011 roughly mirrors the left side of the run-up in price. They are not precise copies of one another of course but the similarity should not escape the attention of anyone serious about technical analysis.

      To be more specific, the rally high of 2008 is the approximate equivalent of the more recent bear market rally we saw in 2016. Both of those failed to achieve liftoff with the more recent rally, still being fresh in everyone’s minds, acting as an incentive for believers to keep investing despite the implications of the mirror on the chart.

      So what we are looking at objectively is a classic price parabola (bubble) that is doing what virtually all such chart patterns do by reverting to its mean. This cannot be in dispute. If you are looking at that chart with an open mind it is more than clear what has already happened is that silver has crashed almost 75% from its lofty 2011 peak. It should also be clear that more downside is yet to come before this pattern is fully rationalized.

      The fourth thing that you will note on the chart is the price-mean. That is, the typical price silver traded at in the many years running prior to the formation of the bubble. And while this is not an exact science in identification we can safely estimate by eyeballs that the mean price was in the range of 10 to12 dollars for more than a decade preceding the onset of the silver bull.

      And that therefore should be the ultimate destination for silver if this chart fulfills itself by mean-reverting.

      Now we have to prove it though. So what I want you to do is trace out a few support and resistance lines to define the bottom. By doing this you will almost immediately discover that silver has not yet completed its reversion process.

      There is a gap in other words (in the 2016/2017 period) that is located along the bottom of the channel and it is quite significant to the analysis because this is a mirror chart that is mean-reverting. To see the gap, just draw a line along the primary bottom points located in 2003 and 2008 and you will immediately note that price has never fallen to it’s major support line.

      OK, this is where it helps to stay objective.

      This 25 year silver chart is telling us in clear and (I think) unequivocal terms that silver will not be close to forming a base (never mind beginning a new bull market) until it has first dropped back to support in the 12 to 13 dollar range. To make the case a little more forcefully though I will add that silver should probably overshoot to the downside as is a common feature in mean-reversions and will not find its final base until it touches down near 10 dollars.

      And judging by the time intervals required on this mirror chart, it looks obvious that touchdown will not happen for at least three more years. That is going to be bad news for the metals bulls and no doubt most will continue to live in disbelief.

      It just CAN’T be. No way will silver languish in the gutter another 36 months or more!

      But I am very sorry to tell you this people, it will and that news is not good if you are holding on waiting.

      I have now been blogging on this exact subject and chart since 2011 and the original prediction I made immediately after the 2011 crash has come true almost to a tee. Nothing has altered my view in all these years that we will not see a bottom until silver is selling near 10 dollars again.

      It just is what it is. The charts don’t lie and I think this one speaks to us with conviction and force.

      So lets find the final bottom with one more channel. Draw a line from the peaks of 2008 and 2013. You will notice there is an near perfect parallel line just below it that runs across the tops of 2006 and 2016. Now take that paralell and locate where the final bottom will eventually come in by using the lows of 2003 and 2008.

      Do you see the symmetry?

      That’s where we are going, people. So put the corks back in the champagne bottles and batten down the hatches. You should be selling rally’s and making nothing more than short term bets off clear technical bottoms between now and when silver has fully mean reverted. I honestly doubt one in a hundred of you believe what I am saying but that really does not matter. The market needs most of you to be wrong in order to function.

      And you will be wrong. I can almost guarantee it. In all the years I have written similar posts I have only managed to persuade one or two people that silver had such a hard road in its future. So I think its just human nature to doubt any analysis that goes against the popular stream of thought.

      Silver bulls will be crushed in the next few years.

      But I will be there to do some buying when the last have finally capitulated and lost all hope.

        1. dboz

          RSI and STOCH both at the bottom say a rise is imminent. One day at a time. Get a nice leg up for the next 1-2 weeks will be some good miner fuel. If it keeps tracking the same, get that retest pull back and then should shoot to upper $20’s which will be a break out and then it’s on. Patience. OPEN MIND you permabear! LOL

        1. TraderPete

          “While the term is most frequently used in the context of software development, GIGO can also be used to refer to any decision-making systems where failure to make right decisions with precise, accurate data could lead to wrong, nonsensical results.” 😎

      1. samhell

        Have you ever subscribed to Gary or Avi?
        You seem to have a good understanding of the Gold and Silver markets.

        1. Pedestrian

          Predictably the bugs have fired back at me today with the usual vacuous comments. No counter argument is ever offered. No alternative way of reading the chart is proposed. It is always a disappointment and most particularly today as the insults were so weak and petty. The bugs here don’t know it but I have gone toe-to-toe against some of the best their type has to offer in the past and rarely come away with more than a few scrapes. That’s a gentle way of saying I usually beat the snot out of their insipid, repetitive and flimsy arguments. Perhaps this crowd of bugs can put on a better show next time. All I have learned from them today is that they are intellectually impoverished and lazy. They will be broke soon too with that attitude (if they are not already). and I suppose it serves them right.

  3. zkotpen


    β€œβ€¦β€¦.sometimes makes it easier to miss a more relevant post’ You mean such as yours?

    No, I mean, such as a post that I need to read. A week and a half ago, I missed an informative post by Gary… because it was buried in stuff not pertinent to a markets-oriented blog, though I’m sure it was all super relevant on a political news blog.

    I am focused on what I do, but sometimes other people mention stuff that I’m not looking at, and it’s both timely and relevant. I want to read all of that stuff, while it’s still timely. And maybe post some results of my own observations and actions.

    I made my chart setup more robust last Sunday, by filling in some gaps, finding/fitting some puzzle pieces, and then backtesting them until late at night — backtesting every scenario I could remember as having caused me doubt and uncertainty, before the market opened Monday morning and began generating fresh new data.

    Once the market opened, I began hands-OFF, real time testing. No action, until I had a solid feel for whether my adjustments actually have positive predictive value or not. One week minimum — no action.

    Friday night, I was in the converse of the place I was Sunday night: Equally exhausted, but trying to get in as much real time testing as I could, for every piece of live market data I could observe, and try to comprehend and process. I wanted to get every tick I could before my eyes. And then try to sort it all out over the weekend and perhaps have something timely and relevant to contribute.

    This weekend in particular, we are in the turn, getting ready for the stretch into the FOMC meeting. So I come to a blog about markets to add some thoughts about markets and read some thoughts from other people, and hopefully we’ll all be rearin’ to go for Wednesday — Thursday — Friday.

    Big week ahead in markets; want to be totally in the zone πŸ™‚

    1. macman1519

      More nothing but a lot of “I”. Quit being a narcissist like ur buddy trump. Not interested in you life, how ur mind works or your pet peeves. Just the facts will do. A lot of people here get off on trying to show us how really, really smart, and really, really great they are. Givu us a break and try for brevity in thought and expression!

  4. Steffmeister

    Canadian mortgage real estate non- bank, Home Capital in deep problems, plunged by -65% in one day. The first canary to get toasted in the western coalmine?

    One of the comments:
    Dunno if it’s true but there is word that this loan to prop up Home Capital came from HOOPP, a pension fund which represents more than 321k Ontario Healthcare workers. The chief executive officer of HOOPP, Jim Keohane, apparently sits on Home Capital’s board and is a shareholder. Considering the investigation involving 2015 allegations of falsifying loan information, was this an appropriate move by any stretch?
    What happens to that pension fund if this loan can’t be paid back? Will it be bailed out?
    And if bailed out, it would be with public tax payer money.

  5. Robert

    Gary it is getting very late in the cycle for gold & miners to have another leg down. Unless this is going to be another long 40+ day cycle? This is the problem I have with cycles; there is an average length for gold but once in awhile the length changes. Say the avg is 30, and then all of a sudden u get a long 40+ day cycle. There is no way to know if the cycle it’s going to extend longer. So if u followed the norm and bought around 30 days u will have to suffer a huge drawdown. This is one of the negatives of cycles

    1. Gary Post author

      This is why I also use sentiment and some technicals.

      Sentiment still hasn’t generated any kind of short term bearish readings on gold yet, and we don’t have a Bollinger band crash signal.

      Both of those things usually occur before a daily cycle bottoms. So I’m not looking for a bottom just yet until the bulls feel more pain and we get some exhaustion selling.

      1. Christian

        I’m pretty sure the Miners have reached short term bearish readings Gary — have they not?

        1. Gary Post author

          Miners sort of. The 20 day moving average is only at 44% bulls. At previous DCL’s it has pushed down to 30%. So sentiment is somewhat bearish on miners but not really extreme yet. But miners don’t drive the metals cycle, gold does.

          Gold has to generate the exhaustion signal. Until it does the rest of the sector will be slave to gold. That probably means miners will produce a deeper sentiment extreme more in line with other DCL’s.

          1. Christian

            Meaning the left translated cycle would not only break the intermediate trendline but trend decisively lower, past 1200 all the way back down to 1180..? It certainly is a strong possibility. God bless the Miners in that case :/

          2. ras

            Possible. gdx ia already below the daily lower BB for 3 days, while gld is still hovering at mid band. Likely, then, we could see a bit of bounce jn gdx before the resumption of the decline in gld.

            Sentiment is helpful at major extremes. I wonder if it as effective in between.

  6. Gary Post author

    My expectation is that gold will at least drop far enough to test the intermediate uptrend line before this daily cycle bottoms. That’s going to come in somewhere around 1235-40 next week.

  7. zkotpen


    Very interesting essay. I’ve taken a look at all four of your points.

    I will say, on a supercycle level, the first cycle move down in gold and silver has gone below the 400 week SMA, which is the mean in question at that degree, and my reasoning is both mathematical and scientific. The math got me to choosing between the 400 week and the 200 month; a general scientific principle compelled me to opt for the shorter 400 week time period — that plus the fact that it syncs up nicely with the 8 year cycle. At any rate, even though gold & silver are both below their respective 400 week SMAs, those means are still rising, and they need to turn down during a correction of supercycle degree. Long term volatility needs to squeeze after the parabolic stretch you point out, and price needs to move even further below those means after the volatility squeeze. How about the next 8 year cycle low?

    It isn’t exact science, but I suspect it will be.

    Good point on keeping quiet! Socrates was forced to drink the hemlock. Galileo was excommunicated. Copernicus did as you describe: He largely kept quiet, did his research, then dropped the manuscript off at the publisher’s at age 75, and promptly died. A contemporary approach is to publish new ideas using a modern twist on the ancient dialog form — they write novels centered on the dialog, but embellished with narrative and description. Still, just as in Plato’s time, the person or character making the outlandish assertions is not the “I” of the book — it’s some mysterious figure who magically appears on the scene at O’Hare airport or the bus terminal in Nogales, Arizona, or some such transport node πŸ™‚

    Even so, the incredulity and contempt abound.

    Referring back to our friend, The Alchemist, he and Santiago are stopped and searched while making their way from the oasis to the pyramids. When they ask the former what the strange golden egg and flask of liquid are, he tells them, and they laugh at him. Santiago asks why he told them the truth, and he responds, “when you possess great treasures within you, and try to tell others of them, seldom are you believed.”

    1. macman1519

      Stay on topic, quit trying to impress us with your verbiage garbage that adds nothing to why we r here, zctpen! More narcisstic ranting!!!

    2. Don

      Zkotpen: You intellectual musings are far too much for most of us, with just regular brains, to comprehend. I hope you are aware that studies have shown that intellectually gifted individuals rarely do well playing the markets. While the intellect may joyfully embrace logic as being their best friend, it is that same logic that does them in when trying to understand how the markets work.

  8. Kruzoe


    I was following along your above analysis until you got to the statement….”where the final bottom will eventually come in by using the lows of 2003 and 2008″. Methinks you failed the logics test. What’s wrong with using the lows of 2008 and 2015(16)?

    1. Pedestrian

      The place to start when you are working on developing a final support line is with parallel lines directly above your target. In other words, resistance lines that have already been established between peaks at different heights.

      These lines are often established very early in a charts formation and sometimes they develop from the angle on the candles in the price peak. So when you see a couple candles of different heights then draw a line across their tops and use the angle that emerges to confirm the parallel support lines below it as time goes by.

      When you do that you can often come to accurate conclusions about where price is going.

      In the case of the silver chart there is good evidence that the dates I provided will eventually form the last line of support from which silver will rise again. In a case where you cannot find any parallel lines then it often means you are following a dead end or that there will be a price change in the future that creates a matched line.

      The geometry on both gold and silver is frankly beautiful and identification of supports can be done without a lot of strain most of the time. The problem with those reading the information is typically denial that the predicted outcome will actually come to pass.

      We need to stop doubting ourselves. There is a very clear unfilled gap on the silver chart that cannot be resolved at this late stage except by price dropping to its natural and well defined support level. And I do believe that is what will happen.

      That gap is staring us in the face every day. It’s pointless to pretend its not there.

  9. Christian

    One more thing Gary.. A SM correction wouldn’t bode well for OIL, except that OIL looks ripe for a sustainable bounce. How do you see that playing out..?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not sure what to think about oil I think the cycles got muddied a bit by the Syrian mess.

  10. jake

    Maybe Gary could help someone out by putting a word limit on the posts so they can spend more time doing rather than obsessively over-analyzing.

      1. primetime


        LOL! Possibly your best idea to date, I love it! The forum is a little rough for the weekend.

      2. jake

        Independent analyst or regurgitated hash.
        With your intellectual prose you can do better than that.

  11. jacob2

    Gold has always been the beauty queen of the commodity complex. A long time gold bull ( decades) but open to the idea that we started a bear market in commodities in 2011 which may have years to run. OIl stocks are m current commodity play and they are all flat to headed south. Oil vastly underpreforming my other sector holdings. This is not the price action of a commodity bull market. BMR for commodiities and gold still on the table. Prove me wrong.

  12. zkotpen



    I know you can’t wait to read my thoughts on gold & miners!!

    My trusted, respected Accountant warned me about ~ YOU ~

  13. Don

    Ped: I expected that you wouldn’t be civil for very long. but It’s sorta nice you have you back as your normal a-hole self. When you first re-appeared, after a hiatus of a few weeks, you were all gung-ho about gold going up, which was complete reversal of your previous bearish stance (while gold was moving up). Now that gold has turned down, it would seem that you are back in the bearish camp, again. Do you think you will be here two or three years from now in order to accept the congratulations (or jeers) for the long term call you have made here today for gold and silver?

    A long term forecast is nice but perhaps you could rub that crystal ball a little harder and tell us where you see gold at on a shorter and more trade-able time frame, let’s say, by the end of 2017? Below $1000 perhaps?

    1. Christian

      Couldn’t agree more Don..

      There was a moment there when I thought: Yeeeeaaah I COULD like this person after all!

      But now.. It’s like he’s back to his normal* self.

      I’m torn πŸ™‚

      *I don’t know what normal is anymore.

    1. zkotpen

      Venus is slowly emerging from her retrograde period,
      Mercury is still retrograde for a little while longer.

  14. zkotpen

    Ped, Don, Christian, Ped, and even macman

    for your constructive posts πŸ™‚

    Ped — right now, I’m still in the Copernicus camp: Preparing everything for posthumous.
    Including my photography. All hobbies on hold, pending this market stuff.

    It takes 10,000 hours to achieve mastery. As stated in 2 months ago: Late 2020, should be that time, if all goes reasonably well.

    Even so, I am trying to bootstrap, and if I can move from the Copernicus camp into the dialog novel camp in the next 3.6 years, I will, and you folks will be counted among the first to know.

    I will not be idle during those 3.6 years. You all have inspired me to write a sort of summary of where I plan to be going, but am hesitant to post so many words. Still, I will use it moving forward. 3.6 years to go — that’s 7,200 hours of progressing with the charts, more than double what I’ve already done since late November, 2015.

    One thing from that summary: I took virtual tours of some Econ departments at a few Uni’s on Saturday. I finally figured out how to answer the question, “What are you working on in Economics?”

    Game Theory Applied to Financial and Other Markets.

    Everybody longs for the steep, nearly vertical rise of the parabola. But in its early stages, the “classic parabola” is less than linear in its ascent.

    So thanks again for your inputs!

    Now, time to get ready for the stretch into FOMC & Jobs data week!

      1. zkotpen

        I really appreciate this, Ped.

        My computer is on the fritz and it has taken me a few hours just to start it up. I just realized I can connect to the Internet in “safe mode”. Not what I needed — I’m supposed to be looking at charts, not pretending to be “IT guy”. But Mercury is still retrograde — what does he have in mind before turning direct & getting up to speed in a couple of weeks? At any rate, seems I can view my charts… graphics aren’t as crisp as normal, but I can see them. Audio & Skype don’t work, however. Mercury seems to have retrograded me back to… 2003-04 or so?

        I have been cutting thru the metaphor of The Alchemist, since adding that little quote yesterday. It’s pretty thick, but worth the effort. From the spot of that quote, I proceed, in the desert in my imagination, to the parting scene between the Alchemist and Santiago, where the former says, “Everything that happens once can never happen again. But everything that happens twice will surely happen a third time.” That, after leaving behind an additional fourth of the gold for Santiago, “if he ever needs it.” Setting up a trust fund of sorts.

        It’s all about preparedness — you need to be prepared for twice as much as you expect!

        Again, cheers for the encouragement!

      1. zkotpen

        Thanks Big Daddy!

        Yes, I believe. Actually, more to do with trading:


        As in, prepared for the unexpected, to avoid getting walloped when it happens.

        My current area of focus. I’m happy with my market analysis, but not too much experience trading & working hard to get that area up to speed.

        When you get clobbered & knocked down, just get back up on your feet & dust yourself off and move on to the next trade πŸ™‚

  15. zkotpen


    Thanks for your constructive inputs!

    I do, however, want to point out that the downfall of everybody in every application is one and the same:

    Rigid adherence to belief.

  16. SLEP

    Ped reminds me of that quote from A. E. Housman: “Nature not content with denying him the ability to think, has endowed him with the ability to write.” πŸ˜€

  17. TraderPete

    Not only is brevity the soul of wit, but it is also the soul of Victoria’s Secret. 😎

    1. Pedestrian

      My next technical article is going to be on breast/hip ratios. I think I can prove how women’s body’s turn men’s mind to mush. I have quite a bit of supporting evidence that the advance of humanity has been set back millions of years because the allure of women was stronger than our ability to think clearly. If God had only made the female form just a little less potent we would probably have already discovered how to defy gravity and solved all the problems of intergalactic space travel. Al Gore has it all wrong. If he wants to save Earth he needs to first stop sexy younger women from using up all our spare mental capacity. The planet depends on it. Our problem is not global warming, its that we don’t have cooling systems installed for our minds when they are most needed. Hip to waist ratios, support lines under breasts and resistance for no reason whatsoever will be discussed in detail. I will even write a special paragraph on the advance/decline phenomenon that is sure to inflame everybody. Come on people. We can save humanity if we can turn off the sex impulse before its too late. So turn off the porn….our evolution depends on it.

      1. cazabrujas

        I have to say that I needed some restraint to keep from giving my opinion on the state of your mental health, Pedestrian, but I’ll keep things polite. I don’t know if many people will agree with me, but personally, I don’t really care about your theories on how libido is bringing an end to our civilization or other ramblings you like to vent here. I also don’t care about your novel-sided comments on the markets. So, my concrete suggestion would be for you to either start your own blog or just stick to the subject matter in a more concise way.

      2. Bigdaddy

        I have had three wives that were shapely ladies when I married them and without exception, their waist to hip ratios eventually reversed. I am lucky I have oil on my property because otherwise I would be broke now paying to support those cows and I ain’t talking about the ones in the fields.

      3. TraderPete

        Ped, you missed my point. My point was to keep the posts and writings brief and to the point. In other words, keep them to the barest essentials. Don’t get off on tangents writing about garbage, GIGO. You really have a strange mind, it meanders all over the place. You need help!

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    I am not bored: yesterday went for a hunt of yellow morels, now it is raining so tomorrow will be time again for renewed hunt.

    1. Pedestrian

      I made a cardboard coffee table just for the hell of it. Looks pretty good too. All it needs now is some papier mache’ ornamentation and a good paint job. Retirement is a bitch. I love the markets though. And I even agree with my critics I write too much on the topic. But once its in your blood you just can’t stop. Especially once you have achieved momentum. The nice thing about online investing is you can do it until the very end as long as your brain pan is still functional. It keeps you mind thinking even while your peers brains are rotting away from years of sitting in front of the tube. Those guys never learned the brain is a muscle that requires exercise just like any other part of your body. Leave it abandoned and untended and it becomes like a garden full of weeds. I am kind of surprised lately by how many of the guys I knew who just let their brains go to pablum. Proves that all those years of watching Sunday football did not add a single neuron to the mix. Like the fixation on women, the activity was all deductive in the end and eventually made them quite stupid.

  19. Bigdaddy

    Lets talk about what is coming for the markets next week. I don’t have much on my plate right now except some Canadian junior oils and I have plenty of cash on the side lines so where does everyone see gold going this week? Maybe a bounce for the gold miners? I am going to get into some more oil stocks. My contacts tell me that oil is going to 60 bucks before the fall.

    1. cazabrujas

      Here is my miners’ game plan for next week, Bigdaddy:

      Monday & Tuesday: i see prices zig-zagging between the low and high of April 26. I will not make a move.

      Wednesday – Friday: I believe the FOMC will make the miners move above or below the high/low of April 26. So here we have two scenarios:

      1) if BOTH GDX and GDXJ break the high of April 26, get into NUGT (do NOT get into JNUG) but watch it like a hawk, especially if it gets close to a higher fibonacci level. During Wednesday to Friday, If you see the price on the 5-minute chart stalling on the way up for a couple of hours, sell NUGT and get into JDST and let it ride until next week with a reasonable stop just in case. if NUGT price doesn’t stall sell before the closing of friday. DO NOT hold over the weekend.

      2) if BOTH GDX and GDXJ break the low of April 26, immediately get into JDST, relax and let it ride into the next week, until the price on the daily chart starts stalling, then sell it.

  20. victor

    Ped, you are something…, as I want you to stop posting time ago so I’m having fun to read your posts now…
    and Thank you for your 25yr silver observation. Good day to everyone, peace…

    1. Pedestrian

      Thank you Victor. I am convinced that there is an incomplete element on that silver chart and it is a warning to be cautious not getting too heavily invested there (or at least to be aware that lower prices lie ahead). I am happy if you or anyone else here found value in the assessment.

      None of us can know for certain of course and I won’t claim that a decline to 10 dollars is absolutely going to happen, but the charts are what they are. Lets just say the amber light is flashing. I don’t take sides on the bull/bear debate however I also won’t argue with a technical outlook that is pointing to lower-lows as a strong probability.

      Unfortunately it was not possible to make my case in a tweet so I offered the full length explanation. It’s pretty hilarious to me how much push back resulted. But then some people (gold bugs are notorious) have really short attention spans, no patience and an unwillingness to learn.

      Is it any wonder they get slammed on their metals purchases again and again?

    1. Christian

      Megamind β€” I really think that you guys should stop calling yourselves ‘A Global Leader’ in technical analysis πŸ˜‰ You’re not.

  21. Alexandru Popovici

    I praised u some time before 4 ur naration kill and, further more, art.
    I do it again! πŸ™‚
    on the other hand, i must also admit that i read only ur shortest posts πŸ™‚ sorry 4 that!
    it is also because of the same fundamentals that i’ve decided to write far less, both as frequency and quantity.

    PS: i am not retired. I am 37. The rain has stopped, sunshine is forecast tomorrow – perfect moment for morels hunting through the thickest forest where Morchella Esculenta loves to grow in large quantities in my “neighbourhood”.

  22. macman1519

    Ztopec, i may bevyour huckleberry, butvur my dingleberry, son!!!!! Please stop trying to impress and just give us the facts!!!!

  23. macman1519

    Big daddy, i hope u have a little on TLT V. Just finishing human trials in phase one. Have a cancer Cure based on injecting cancer cells only with their proprietary solution and hitting them with a laser. Very promissing and will rise substantially for the next month waiting for results from first three patients, and if promising, look out!!!! Rediculously priced at 48 cents. But what is a cancer cure worth. A little nibble here may provide a banquet.

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