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We got the Bollinger band crash today that I was looking for before the daily cycle bottomed.
If this does turn out to be the DCL then we should bounce for a few days maybe on an unexpected twist in the French elections, before turning and heading back down to the consternation of everyone who thinks that the news should drive price.
Sentiment is what drives price, and no matter what happens, gold still has a date with a deeper decline into a full ICL by June.
Great call Gary. Congratulations.
Its unreal Gary, this daily cycle is very extended but it feels like it happened today or any day now. There is sheer panic now everyone is afraid to buy gold
The real panic will occur at the ICL in June. This is just a smaller daily cycle low.
1237.35 gold futures low….a bounce is due….silver has been leading down far enough.
Silver just tagged its bottom trend line from the December lows. Could finish up its conniption tonight, tagging its lower channel at 16.16?
Thanks Gary. At least someone around knows what they are doing! LOL
C’MON GARY! What about all those times when you F–cked up says the trolls 🙂
Of course they will all have amnesia when it comes to my winning trades.
The short term traders (gamblers) get so wrapped up in trying to make perfect trades that they miss the big picture.
That’s why we just keep grinding higher in our portfolio’s because I focus on the bigger picture and don’t worry too much about trying to time perfect trades.
The big picture is that oil is due for a bottom soon. I’ve tried a couple of times to catch it without any success yet. Eventually I will though and we’ll recover and become profitable in the energy portfolio as well.
I think when miners bottom they could rally 5-10 days on a dead cat bounce
I wouldn’t bet money on that. I’ve seen a few cycles that topped on day 2 or 3.
Like I said, third daily cycles are dangerous. There isn’t a lot of margin for error because the cycle is destined to become left translated.
Silver and gold getting their teeth smashed out on the rocks of despair. Big surprise (not). I could not warn the gold-tards often enough though since they always know better. And I would bother to post about it but who really cares. I said enough in February and March already and nobody would listen so I doubt they want to hear about it now. Told you that DSLV would take a rocket ride higher but that only earned the usual guffaws and blunt criticism. You can’t chart 3X ETF’s I was told (yeah, sure) But I was right in the end.
It’s a really bloody face smashing for the metals now and I am totally vindicated.
Come on now, you were the one that was looking for a long trade and a retest of the highs or a move above 1300 when I was warning everybody that the top was coming to get out.
4/28
“So back to my breakout thought. I have been running support and resistance lines on GLD and gold and the way I look at the set up is that there are unfilled channels that strongly imply we are going to see a technical breakout above the 1300 dollar level with a possibility of highs coming in near 1321”
A day trade is not the same as a medium or long term prediction so don’t mix them up. You were the one irritating me all February when I was warning a massive megaphone had formed on DSLV and that told us silver was going down for a smash (that was not a short term forecast Gary). You completely missed that despite a picture perfect chart. If you can’t sort out the difference between an opportunistic day trade from an hourly or a prediction based off a daily chart then you don’t get to criticize at all.
Oh so gold was supposed to bounce from 1268 to 1321 as a day trade???
Nope, that was conditional on exceeding 1300 which did not happen. Gary, I was actually open to the idea there was a possibility of a retest at the highs and even a break above the channel. I also said in another post however I was not trading right now since I was not sure. So being wrong or right about it has had no effect on me since I had no skin in the game long or short.
How about this one (that you wrote)
Its a bull market. Just buy and hold and turn off your computer for three years because in a bull market all mistakes get corrected.
That statement is just as true today as it was the day I wrote it. Gold is going over $5,000 and probably over $10,000. For anybody that can hold the duration until the bubble forms you are going to make a shit ton of money. But it’s not going to be an easy ride. And I never said it would be an easy ride. I just said that eventually jnug will be over $500. Some people seem to want to rationalize that that means it’s going to be over $500 in the next month. It could take 3 to 5 years to get there but it’s going to get there.
OK, maybe that will happen eventually but its a hell of a bad ride while you are waiting and I would have advised against it. There was a guy on this site who bought silver May calls when we were near the peak in silver at the end of February and I was trying to tell the guy it was a mistake and to get the hell out. His handle was OptionTrader I think. But he wouldn’t listen and look where May silver is going now. The other guy I was talking with was insisting platinum was a great buy and I swore it was going to retest its December lows instead so avoid it. And we did retest today. He would not hear me either. The way its going platinum is going to retest the December of 2015 lows next and that is very bad new for both silver and gold since it’s a leading indicator right now. The decline has been brutal and relentless and driven primarily by professional traders who dominate that small trade. Wake me up when GDX is trading at 13 dollars!
Well played Gary
They are getting trounced – but I made 77- hundred and some change from the KGC blast-off today.,Looks like Gdxj pulling the trigger on the add.
If its any consolation the worst is behind us for now. There should be relief very shortly.
Hi ped good to see u back. How far up u think Gdx and silver can go up on the relief rally?
Thanks Robert. No prediction here. I have not been at the computer in days actually and only dropped in to mock the goldbugs (a little tit for tat since they are such jerks lately.) Those boys sure are quiet today though. Too busy eating crow I expect. Hope they get an ulcer.
I think all but a few took my advice and sold. So there aren’t many people here to mock.
Doubtful. They have been posting buys all week. The bugs are jumping like fleas any day gold goes up but they are dead silent on downers. They will all be back at the first sign of a bounce saying how smart they were and pumping metals again. Nothing changes. If they sold and went short you would hardly be able to wade through the posts.
Did you hear that from a BENGAY commercial?
LOL!
Nope. Pretty funny though.
Gold and silver are done. BITCOIN is the new trade.
Nothing moves straight down, except the crap I am in. Over and over. Months to edge up. 3 weeks straight down Mt. Everest. Silver oversold for days and days and days. Ped $4 silver looking good. Maybe by the end of May.
dboz,
man are you up and down. Do you have an investment thesis at all? Gold and silver are not “done” as you proclaim. What investment horizon do you have for these metals anyway? These are loooooooooong term investment horizons in order to get this to work. By all means, buy some bitcoin that is currently in a speculation frenzy….that too will fade. It’s a blockchain made out of thin air for crying out loud. Govts. can shut that down overnight…they just haven’t gotten around to it yet.
Yep, buy and hold and lose it all. I am getting close.
Don’t know about 4 bucks but I think 12 dollar silver is a guarantee given enough time. That unfilled gap is just begging to be resolved one way or another. As far as gold goes it should end the year at 1150 or thereabouts.
You can all rest easy now ladies; Ped *the annoying gnome* is back!
Human behavior is priceless…just like I have predicted over and over…it plays out again. Let the chest thumping began over a very trivial day in the market. Like a pimple on King Kongs ass. Totally irrelevant over the long term. But a lot of egos were very well satisfied for the day.
Just checked out the gold sentiment, and it’s still pretty neutral. The RSI(5) weekly has not touched the oversold line and we have broken a major trend line (pending confirmation tomorrow). It seems to me that even if we get a rebound, it would be very small and short. The french election results could also help push gold below other key resistance levels next week and spur more selling. Odds are deifinitely in the bears’ favor.
You don’t say? Fancy that. You are some kind of genius. 😉
Staying on the sideline. Hopefully we have a quick DCL, followed by a savage downturn.
It appears we are having a gold bounce as now gold it is at ~$1242.
I left 2K JNUG shares and expect tomorrow morning tohave automatic lunch money.
You all will be so wrong. GDX will outperform gold to the point they look they are not even related. Wait for ICL you will never buy any miners near bottom. We see who laugh then.
Agree ED. Bulls make money, Bears make money, and I see a lot of pigs looking to get slaughtered. or left behind, just like a wise man has said, they will never be able to pull the trigger. Wait for that 20-50% drop further in the miners, that “savage downturn”. Whatever, then you will have the perfect entry. Just don’t get too ballsy or greedy, son.
This site is all day traders only. No one can hold a position longer than a couple days, let alone weeks or months. Just to let all the newbees know.
Gold hasnt reached extremes on the daily, ie RSI, could still fall further. From memory on the way up levels were 1230 and then 1220.
Further to that FOMC looks like its been positive for the SM. So likely more pressure on gold although the dollar index is slightly down.
Hi Gary… if you go on goldtadise web site you’ll see that some are talking about Gdx at 8 more or less..
Others say we are not in a Gold bull mkt and miners are going to crash!!!
Since you’re talking about the big picture… is this probable ?
Tks
It does not matter. Gold is going to 5000, Jung 500, and Nasdaq 20000-30000. Just buy and have the great great great great great great great granddaughter check it from Mars. Ok?
I warned and warned you to get out. I even did a video the other day urging people to get out now as there will be plenty of time and an opportunity to make it all back and then some at the next ICL.
The bubble phase should come within the next 3-5 years. So I doubt there will be any grand kids on Mars by that time.
GDX could easily test the March lows today. I am hoping for a break down to the December lows soon.
Why not hope for lower than that? We could blow through December lows. Maybe wait for miners to file bankruptcy?
Just read the main marketwatch (“Why now may be a good time to buy gold and silver”) and it made me cringe. The financial media is just a tool of the banksters to draw people in and rob them of their money. It’s disgusting.
Silver has only been this oversold 1% of all trading days in the history of silver. I think it has plenty of room to drop another few weeks to get into the .01% range, then maybe we could expect a bounce of a few cents off oversold for a day or two before we resume the vertical drop to $10.
Haha!! Keep these comments of despair coming dboz. You’re my gauge for the bottom.
I am way past despair, I am at apathy. I hope we go below 1000 and 10 so I can load up on physical.
Just to show how oversold silver is this chart stretches back to 2014….Kept it simple rsi only
https://invst.ly/3vp7b
But and its a big but “he-he” silver continued falling another three dollars after it had reached the low RSI point in 2014.
https://invst.ly/3vp7b
Gold daily, i’ve highlighted rsi showing that oversold can remain oversold…
https://invst.ly/3vpcj
correct link
Like Gary says, the further the rubber band stretches.
Get out of oil and cut your losses.
GDX is about to break the March low on pre-market. the bloodbath is coming even faster than I thought.