62 thoughts on “DEAD CAT BOUNCE ISN’T DONE YET

  1. zkotpen

    I concur on more upside in dead rat bounce.

    Daily volatility in both gold & GDX needs to tighten up before the next daily cycle decline into the intermediate cycle low Gary’s talking about. That means gold needs to get above its 20 day SMA, as GDX has.

    Intraday (“HCL”) move needs to occur/complete in both — GDX’s appears to be underway as of yesterday. Then there will be another intraday move up to the daily cycle high.

    This looks clearer to me on GDX’s chart than on gold’s. I see GDX getting cozy with its 20 day SMA, perhaps for a little while, as some intraday wiggles commence wigglin’ themselves out.

    Dead rat bounce in USDJPY also looks suspect.

  2. Dday

    I would agree, looking at the gold daily the RSI(5) has only just crossed midpoint and the stoch crossed 20, so I would say maybe early next week for a top.

  3. WYSIWYGN

    and should this top end of this week or the beginning of next week offer an opportunity to sell the rest of my metals/miners ? Or will their next downturn too shallow and should I hold them for the coming upturn (August and further) ?
    (excuse me my English, btw, am not native speaking English)

    1. Christian

      WYSIWYGN β€” Gary has already talked about this at length.. best thing for you to do is to go through past blog post and study the material.

      Btw, if you do.. I would ignore the comment section. It’s [mostly] a hodgepodge of useless nonsense from people that know Fck all about the markets and yet insist on challenging our Host at every freakin turn!

      1. primetime

        Christian,

        You were that brown noser that always brought in the teacher an apple huh? You must get a free subscription for all your hard work policing this site for your bro.

  4. WYSIWYGN

    Gary, last Friday or so you wrote : “Once this dead cat bounce is over and everyone has been suckered into the long side prematurely the miners are going to roll over and they will be driven below the December low.”.
    Is that vision still valid ?
    You do not think that gold will roll over (e.g. to 1170) but that the miners are already bottomed out today, as they are mostly some weeks ahead on gold itself?

    1. Dday

      I think the miners have a little more upside, im thinking the GDX will top somewhere around 24 which ill coninside with RSI around 88. Still a little to go yet….

    2. Gary Post author

      If you check history you will see that it’s mostly a myth that miners bottom ahead of gold. Most of the time they bottom the same day as gold or 1 day on either side of a gold bottom.

      Once gold starts heading back down the miners will follow it. They aren’t going to disconnect.

      1. Christian

        That’s not entirely true Gary.. We just witnessed the Miners top AND bottom ahead of Gold during this last DCL. And I have a sneaking suspicion that Miners will top once again ahead of Gold this week or early next week.

        Same with Silver.. Silver will sometimes lag or jump ahead of Gold πŸ™‚

          1. Christian

            They haven’t Robert. Miners are consolidating on top of the 50 DMA for one more push up to [quite possibly] the 200 DMA. If you don’t believe me then you should be buying DUST hand over fist today. Are you..? Or are you to scared to pull the trigger?

        1. Gary Post author

          At the December bottom miners bottomed 3 days behind gold. Historically they usually bottom the same day or maybe one day on either side of gold. They idea that they lead gold is not confirmed by history. It’s another one of those things we take for granted because it sounds true. But if one checks history it’s not accurate.

          1. Christian

            Check your history again. Back in December 2016 Gold actually bottomed ahead (by almost a month) of the Miners while they were busy delivering an undercut low in January 2016. Again.. they don’t always move in lockstep πŸ™‚

  5. primetime

    Everyone is all worried about calling the top. It has been called 2005 times already, gold 5000 to 10000 and Jnug 500. I think the day traders or “daysies” are getting a little nervous.

  6. dboz

    A couple of miners to watch today for potential clues. IAG and CDE are both testing resistance at their down trend lines. A breakout would be nice to see. Take it from there, should it happen.

        1. jake

          Crazy how CDE goes from the worst to an out performer without any change in the fundamentals of the company , shows the irrationality of the market.

          1. dboz

            Should be almost no resistance on CDE back to $11 plus due to that huge red candle when it dumped.

  7. jake

    2008 to 2011 metals and the stock market moved together, what’s different this time that would prevent metals from rallying and selling off with the market?

  8. Gary Post author

    Everyone is so wrapped up in either trying to call the top in the stock market or the bottom in gold that they are going to totally miss the next big trending move that’s starting in energy.

  9. Gary Post author

    I was interested to see if the dollar still had one more leg down into its ICL. It does. It’s extremely concerning for gold that the dollar is making a lower low for the ICL yet gold is nowhere near making higher intermediate highs. Whats’ going to happen to gold when the dollar completes the ICL in a day or so and starts an intermediate degree rally? A rally that could last for several months and possibly retest the Dec. highs?

    1. jake

      Maybe that $ correlation will breakdown at some point ?
      If they try to run the buy stops in gold before another push down that should be above resistance?

      1. Gary Post author

        The new normal for the daily dollar cycle has been 35-40 days. It’s on day 35 today. The 50% retracement comes in at 97.85.

        I’m expecting a final ICL in the dollar sometime this week.

        Funny how no one is criticizing my call on the dollar now. As it turns out I called it perfectly, it just took longer to unfold than I was expecting.

    2. primetime

      What is going to happen when they are hell bent on destroying the outsider Trump? He has no chance and impeachment or outright chaos is on the table. They want him destroyed from congress and the media.

      Then what will the dollar and gold do?

  10. zkotpen

    dboz,

    Very interesting CDE charts — cheers!

    I believe the same will happen in gold: It will break the lower trendline when it makes its YCL. Then gold will break the great upper trendline, but not exceed 1375. So far, that’s my general, one year-ish outlook…

  11. Goild

    Good morning,

    One needs to obey the candles and not second guess them.

    BD best wishes for your trading today.

    Let us make money, be relaxed and patient, money will flow.

    1. Christian

      Goild — will you stop with the ”one needs to obey the candles” nonsense, Lol! It’s starting to sound like a Goddamn sermon πŸ™‚

      D’ you have anything else that is of interest for all the goombas on this site? A link to an insightful article perhaps? A sexy looking chart..? A picture of the wife in a leather suit?? Anything.

  12. macman1519

    Ya right, the media is destroying him, he is doing everything right. You Trump supporters are blind to reality. Trump is a spoiled 7 year old who knows nothing and is daily telling lies and is grossily ill prepared to be president. More and more people are aware of that FACT. How will that fact affect gold as his presidency continues to unravel. And spare the attacks on the messanger deal with these facts to increase your chances of making money!

    1. dboz

      Whether you like or dislike him, you cannot argue that there is an onslaught by the left wing media to over throw a president by any means possible (soft coup). If you think that is good for the country, then for you the ends justify the means, as it does for most liberals, we are in serious trouble. The rules no longer apply.

      1. macman1519

        And the right wing media is the source of accuracy? It behooves intelligent people to sift through his actions, and if you are ok with a president who lies on a daily basis then I respectfully disagree with you. This controversies are not made by the media, but by Trump. The majority of the world press considers our president to be a joke. More and more republican congressman and senators are realizing this and breaking their political bonds to Trump. He demands loyalty, but continuallly throws his own supporters under the bus. Ie. Comey firing and this morning when Trump said yes he revealed highly classified intel, after his people in the meeting had said he hadnt. An out of control witehouse is not good for tha American people. Trump is a disaster, what does he have to do to change your mind. Stop viewing Fox should be your first step to getting a more realistic view of what is actually happening. Fox is the ministry of propaganda for herr trump. That is it, will no longer comment on this child until he is impeached or resigns, and one of those is a certainty!

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    Swing high for CRB Index –> Dead cat bounce in oil and CRB index are over.

    NatGas has a follow-through down day; it keeps being a leader for energy complex so that it should bottom below 2.6 sooner than oil below 40 too.

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, don’t be afraid! Trust your signals and your stop-loss levels.
    Hang on! We are holding each others’ e-hands πŸ™‚

  15. Goild

    Sold more USL to reduce risk and only hold 1K shares.
    Slow and difficult day with JNUG.
    So far only about half lunch money.
    Good trading to all.

  16. Bigdaddy

    Bought 500 SQQQ at 31.80 this morning. We are getting a little sell off now . Maybe today it will amount to more than the usual five points,

  17. bluelagoon

    Alex – you and Gary seem to be on opposite ends on oil – he’s thinking everyone has to hop on board now so as not to miss the next leg up while you are seeing it as a dead cat bounce. Today – it’s sure looking like you are right. You were accurate on the last crude call – so far good track record. You were also right on NG – it’s been down this week. Are you thinking NG is in a downtrend or is this just a correction?

    1. Gary Post author

      I think oil is close enough to the bottom that one can just buy and hang on. Maybe it already made the final ICL hard to say. Either way if you buy now and hang on for 3-4 months you will have a hell of a lot more money than the people trying to time every wiggle in every market.

      This is how I keep outperforming virtually all of these short term traders. I don’t time perfect entries or exits but I catch the large intermediate trends. So I end up making a load of money once the trend gets going. In the meantime the short term traders maybe catch a win here and then a loss there, and back and forth so that by the time the major move is over they end up not making much of anything.

  18. Alexandru Popovici

    As I just said above and as I had also told Victor some weeks ago, I see NatGas below 2.64 before bottoming.
    This means that this is the resumption of the secondary trend and end of the minor trend (dead-cat bounce).

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    For those angry to have missed shorting NatGas yesterday or crude oil, you can place sell-stops in COTTON @ 82.55 –> next thing I’ll re-short will be cotton (covered on May9 @ 77.23).

  20. Don

    Semi conductors keep going up and up and more up. Apple is taking a rest while AMZN and MSFT keep the party going. Decliners out numbering advancers by a wide margin but that doesn’t seem to matter anymore.

  21. Bigdaddy

    Gary, why do you focus on sectors that don’t want to go up in a sustainable way, like energy and gold miners, but ignore the real winners, like tech ?

  22. Goild

    Christian,

    You must have a grandiose crystal ball to not only tell the market direction but to know
    what is of interest to others.

    Nevertheless, good trading to you.
    I have lunch money now.

    1. Christian

      No crystal ball, just a shit ton of experience Goild! You spend enough time studying charts, you start to pick up on the nuances — sometimes it’s ridiculously obvious!

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