330 thoughts on “THE DOLLAR HAS BEGUN A NEW BEAR MARKET

  1. Gary Post author

    Not only will the bear market in the dollar drive a new bull market in gold, it will also drive the bubble phase in stocks which will continue until a parabolic structure forms and then collapses. After that the inflation will move into the commodity markets. Over the next 6-8 years we’re going to have massive inflation. First in the stock market, then in the commodity markets.

    1. RTTPD

      Great video……get your euro vacations in this summer – they’re going to be alot more expensive next summer.

      Gary —- Great technique on your cleans….
      The footwork on your spreads on the military are damn good for a guy who is almost 60!!

  2. WYSIWYGN

    Gary, “new bull market in gold”: why then should one wait for the further correction for gold, silver and the miners? Why not anticipate and buy now, as waiting for 1170 could mean as well that one misses the turning point and the first next leg of the bull? (as everybody now waits for that 1170)

    1. Gary Post author

      Well first off ask yourself if you can actually weather a drawdown to 1170? That would probably be about 25% decline in mining stocks as I think the banks are going to try to run the stops below the Dec. low.

      But if you can hold onto your conviction during that kind of drawdown then yes you could buy now if you want.

      Nothing has changed in my outlook. By the time the bubble phase in gold tops JNUG will be over $500. Most of the gain though will occur in the last year. So many people see that statement and expect it to occur quickly. It’s not going to be an easy ride to $500. The first few years out of the bottom will be grueling with lots of ups and downs.

  3. WYSIWYGN

    thanks, Gary ! so do you (/does someone here) have targets for HUI, GDX and GDXJ ? HUI 140 ? GDX 17 ? GDXJ 22 ?

  4. desertsun999

    BLUELAGOON, I didn’t forget about you. I tried sending you the chart but the link you gave me would not go through. Do you have a alternative email?

  5. ras

    oih is in persistent downtrend, price below declining ma20. 26 may not hold. Levels below : 24-22. If we get there, it may be time to step up to oil complex. Until then, premature positions could be dead money.

  6. jake

    I like it. Gold is in the front end of an uptrend.
    Although the dollar could tread water for a long time
    With every other country on a QE bender.

  7. jacob2

    Wooh! What happened to your big dollar rally forecast Gary?

    That said, everyone is entitled to change there mind. Personally, long most things cyclical which is where the action is in the later stages of a bull market and incompatible with a dollar bull market. So this is how I choose to play it.

    As always, sold PM stocks mid February waiting to buy again come JULY.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar still has a rally ahead, but I don’t think it’s going to make higher highs.

  8. Pedestrian

    Sorry Gary, but you are not first with this and I have the post and link to back that up.

    Exactly one month ago to the day I related to everyone here a superb chart created by a poster named Schism over at Goldtent TA Paradise where he proposed to the gold community that the dollar bull was at an end based on his Presidential-cycle dollar chart.

    Here it is as a refresher. I am sure Primetime remembers because I used this as an example to show how the future was sometimes predictable when using support and resistance lines on long term charts:
    https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/us-dollar-presdident.png

    —————————————————————————————
    And this is the post I left for him on April 28th

    Pedestrian
    April 28, 2017

    Here is a chart for the cave guy.

    The questions that need to be answered after looking at this dollar chart are twofold.

    1) Is this chart predictive on a cycles basis for the next direction of the dollar (and thus is the future already written)?
    2) Does this chart tell you that the dollar has topped and gold (and commodities) are about to have a big run higher?

    Chart courtesy of Goldtadise.com and was posted by Schism. This chart looks very positive for the gold bulls.
    https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/us-dollar-presdident.png
    ————————————–

    So lets give Schism his due since he produced the chart that turned more than a few heads (including mine) and lets not get too puffed and start chest pounding about how expert we are at calling tops and bottoms when using other peoples work!

    1. dboz

      Ped, what are you talking about? Gary called for the possible false breakout months ago. He said so when you were calling for 120 DXY so let’s not write revisionist history. I posted to Gary several times he was not taking credit for his dollar call be spot on. He was way ahead of Schism.

        1. dboz

          Nope, but facts are facts. He called it. You argued for days how blind and dumb he was for not seeing that we were going to 120 which was going to send gold to 900.

          1. dboz

            Pedestrian
            January 18, 2017 at 12:42 am
            I donโ€™t know about that. After reviewing I will prepare to go short late today or early tomorrow on Inauguration day. It now appears to me gold has topped on an interim basis and we will indeed see a pullback with another opportunity to get long in early February. As always, we are playing by ear so my short is conditional upon action today through Friday. All things being equal though we are now at a corrective peak that presents a downside opportunity.

            About the dollar. No Gary, the dollar is not going to fall far from the apple tree. Trend is up for all of 2017 and part of 2018. All we are seeing here is a minor and necessary pullback to burn off the excess bullishness on USD. It will be a chance to buy more.

          2. Pedestrian

            You are an idiot Jake. I claimed nothing of the sort. I only pointed out the chart came from another source. It was not Gary’s work.

          3. Pedestrian

            And a note to Boz,

            Quoting me on a day trade is meaningless when I was talking about a mult-decade chart. You really need to get your head screwed back on. Either that or lay off the booze since you don’t make sense anymore.

          4. dboz

            You said the TREND for the dollar is up for all of 2017 and into 2018. Sounds like a long term call and nothing about a day trade? I could use a couple Moscow Mules though.

  9. Steffmeister

    No Gary isnt the first one. The dollar will trade sideways to up for a year or a little bit less and the double will approx sit at 103ish, after that its good bye for the dollar for many ears to come if not forever ;-/

  10. zkotpen

    Gary,

    I’m not too concerned about who’s first, highest mountain, longest river, and other superlatives.

    But a caveat has come to me while sleeping on your video:

    Stick to the cycle at hand.

    Previously, I had noted that you’re good at daily, intermediate, and perhaps yearly cycles, and less so at the shorter and longer degree cycles.

    That’s probably correct on the shorter cycles (which you’ve admitted plenty of times).

    Jury is still out on the longer cycles, such as the ones you’re trying to predict here.

    But to be clear, you are your best at predicting the cycle that is at hand, in the here and now. When you start heading into the future — you’ve said it yourself numerous times, and others use the phrase… stick to that!

    Speaking of which, I did see a crystal ball for sale in a shop or street market a few weeks or months ago. I picked it up and held it in my hand. I thought of you, smiled, and proceeded on my way ๐Ÿ˜‰

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually I’m very good at predicting the longer cycles it’s just that they take longer than most peoples attention span. ie. the dollar cycle, The 7 YCL in stocks. The 3 YCL in the CRB. The 8 YCL in gold.

      I got all of them right but they are such longer cycles no one remembers.

  11. Don

    Gary, it was just days ago , on May 19th, that you said that the dollar was entering the “blood bath” phase and that would be followed by a “multi- month” rally . Now you are saying the dollar is in a bear market. Just to be clear, are you expecting a “multi month” rally that will fail to make new highs or is the rally now off the table?

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes at least a month and a half.Maybe two months, but the intermediate cycle should be left translated if the dollar has begun a new bear market.

      So the future dollar chart should look like the gold chart from 2013 to 2016. There will be rallies but they won’t make higher highs.

  12. GMoney

    Gary: I know you’re going to disagree with me, but I think the stock market is already in a parabolic and we are close to the end. Look at a 10 year chart of the SOX. Is this not a parabolic?

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes I’m going to disagree. Bitcoin is in a bubble. Everyone is talking about it. More than 100% rise in a year or less. Stretched more than 50% above the 200 DMA.

      None of those conditions apply to stocks yet. 10,000 will be a piece of cake for the Nasdaq, and 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

      Don’t exit too early. Other than a baby bull this is the only other time where one can make insane money very quickly. Ride it for all it’s worth until you start hearing people in the restaurant next to you bragging about how much money they are making in the stock market.

      1. jacob2

        Bitcoin has more then doubled since April. Fueled by Chinese investors looking to get money out of China and retail investors keen to jump on the nearest trend (bandwagon). Bitcoin fans of course see great potential for electronic currencies not controlled by governments. Sounds like gold doesn’t it. The question I’ve been asking myself, is bitcoin the new gold of just another fad? I really don’t know. The hype though is somewhat reminiscent of old stories of tulips in Amsterdam in the 1600’s and boot blacks offering stock tips in the 1920’s right before the great crash. I’m holding off on buying.

        1. Pedestrian

          That’s an interesting analogy Jacob. May be close to the truth too. I read yesterday that Bitcoin has spawned more than 800 other cryptocurrencies already with many more planned or in the works.

          Like most things in life, the spoils all go to those who are first in the door with the last in line getting the leftovers. Maybe this crypto thing is more along the lines of a modern day chain-letter where you get in early, make your million and then start your own chain as a way to eternal riches.

          Those pyramid Ponzie schemes of the past are all illegal by now and maybe this Bitcoin thing is in a different league. But when I read that the computer Dudes who rule the day have birthed more than 800 new cryptocurrencies in the past year I just realized how deep this thing was going.

          Ultimately, none of them will be worth anything.

          Its like a Wild West of currency creation with no accountability and no front office to take your complaints too when it all falls apart. It is vaguely reminiscent of Confederate currency too.

          I suppose the one currency that will survive is the one that is backed by a government or gold. And oddly enough I also read yesterday that there is a new cryptocurrency that is totally 100% gold-backed which is novel since Bitcoins claim to fame is that the blockchain itself is all the security and value you really need.

          I will be damned if I can recall where I saw that story though.

          But don’t mind me if I still harbor doubts. How long will it be before we can all just create our own cryptocurrency? There is probably a “Do it yourself” kit on the market as I write this and anybody swift enough will be able to quickly capitalize on the opportunity by branding the thing.

          Like the Meat Cutters Union or Teamsters. They can have their own crypto-coin. Maybe the Mormons or Catholics will each spawn one too. Of course, the Teachers Pension plan will need its own currency and so will most Charities and political organizations.

          Little Suzie selling lemonade on Mom’s front lawn would be remiss to not get on board too. All hail little Suzie who’s new coin, aptly named the Suzie-Q is about to sweep the nation and become the currency of choice among the playground set.

          OK enough….I think you all get my point.

          Seriously though, where is this crypto thing really going?

          The Expanding Universe Of Cryptocurrencies
          http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-27/visualizing-expanding-universe-cryptocurrencies

        2. Gary Post author

          The dollar, euro, yen, etc. Are all backed by the power of the government to tax it’s citizens. They have at least some kind of real worth dependant on how willing the government is to debase.

          Cyrpto currencies are backed by nothing. If people can’t see that this is a scam then we are no more intelligent today than the dutch were back in the 15th century.

          1. jake

            Good for another chapter in
            Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

          2. espresso

            Heh heh… “Cyrpto currencies are backed by nothing.”

            Thanks for saying that. So true. They will multiply like rabbits, for whomever creates the crypto currency will make real money.

  13. Bill in Tokyo

    Thanks Gary for this video.

    The most important thing I learned was that, while the weekly $USD made a higher high, that $GOLD didn’t make a lower low.

    But I use daily charts for trading – right now (on paper) I’m long GLD and SLV, and out of GDX and GDXJ. And long QQQ. I’m paper trading because of tax reasons and timezone problems while living in Japan. I’m moving back to the US this fall, so I’m trying to learn ahead of this.

    As an aside, I think that …
    – Sentiment doesn’t work – for trading anyways. Why? Because 80+% of all trades are done by computers, and they don’t have emotions, just logic and execution.
    – I don’t think cycles work anymore – for the same reason – I think that cycles used to work before QE, but not now – the cause of a cycle is human emotions – but again if 80% of all trading is done by a chip, then there is no emotion, thus no cycle. Also, w/QE, so much money has been created and infused into the markets, I think that everything is distorted right now. I think the S&P is already in a bubble. Again, I think it’s OK to swing trade, but have clear stops. Not for long term investing.
    – I think Bitcoin is not in a bubble. As Cliff High (half nut, half genius) recently explains, its doing an alligator teeth climb up/down – overall up – very volatile, but since it can not be shorted, it’s hard to manipulate. I actually think this is a massive elliot wave 1, for which a 2 will come, bringing Bitcoin down to like 1000, and that’s when I’ll get on board, ahead of the massive wave 3 up to who knows. I am now searching for a place where I can chart it like Stockcharts. I think the cause of the wave 2 down could be a hack, or Chinese govm’t crackdown, or some other such thing. Bitcoin does have to somehow address crooks using their currency for crime. But I think Bitcoin is going to be like the early Yahoo, Microsoft, and later Apple etc. that went up like 1000X, but no one saw it coming. But I need a big correction, and a reliable chart, to trade it. Would I hold it? Nope. Not yet anyways. Gold is in hand, but bitcoin is like other fiat currencies – just a number in a flash drive.
    – I liked how Gary said that if the schlitz hits the fan, that we’ll need guns and grub, and not gold. I still think gold and esp. silver coins will be good. And friends.

  14. Steffmeister

    New tulips for everyone ๐Ÿ™‚ has anyone thought of bitcoin as a tech stock going parabolic? A signal of what to come or a last move before a multi year correction?

    1. Pedestrian

      Another day or two and gold will have peaked. Don’t marry your trades here, WYSIWYGN.

        1. Gary Post author

          I only see 4 that have managed to exceed their February high. GOLD, AU, KGC, & RGLD. Most are in a well defined down trend.

  15. CooLoser

    Hi Gary,
    Looking at the Gold/Silver Chart – do you think Silver is about to break loose to the upside this year?

  16. earthkitten

    Silver will be in the toilet for a few weeks weeks. Then
    it will go ballistic. Then back to the outhouse toilet it goes.
    Then it will go to the moon. Then it will go back to the commode
    & you will hear a big FLUSH. Then it will jump higher than a
    kangaroo on a trampoline.

  17. Don

    JJharmen: I hope you kept PGC. On the move this morning and now at two and a half cents.

  18. Gary Post author

    Folks I tried to warn you back in April that the miners weren’t following gold to new highs. That’s usually a warning sign. No one wanted to listen to me at the time.

    They are doing it again.

  19. Gary Post author

    To confirm the intermediate bottom the dollar has to rally enough to break the intermediate down trend line. That should be the driver to push gold down into it’s larger intermediate cycle low over the next 4-5 weeks and produce the sentiment extreme we need for gold to break out of the basing pattern its stuck in.

  20. WYSIWYGN

    Gary, “a warning sign”: for gold to follow downhill ? And silver ? Detaching?

    1. Gary Post author

      Silver isn’t going to decouple from gold. When gold drops down into it’s ICL silver will follow.

  21. zkotpen

    I haven’t looked at yearly cycle volatility for gold in about a week — it is contracting & will continue to do so until the next ICL.

    What that means is, the current move up is likely to go to 1274-1294. In all probability, it will top out in the lower half of that range.

    People probably thought gold was volatile on January 31. On a short term basis, that was certainly correct. But in terms of the yearly cycle, gold entered range-bound territory on that day, and has remained locked between 1195 and 1295 ever since. So yearly volatility flattened out, and then began to contract. Recently, it’s begun contracting in earnest. So when I say “gold will not get out of line in terms of yearly volatility” I mean, it’s not likely that gold’s yearly volatility will expand — neither in the current move up, nor in the subsequent move down into the ICL.

    And what does that set gold up for?

    Wave C of triangle is often a double zig zag.

    Gold’s volatility needs to contract even more on a yearly basis before such a wave C is ready to top. For that to happen, the current move up cannot get out of line, and the subsequent move down cannot get out of line, either.

    NO VOLATILITY EXPANSION IN GOLD ON A YEARLY BASIS FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

    In terms of the intermediate cycle, a little more liberality is possible — but not much. That’s pointing to 1274-84 before the intermediate downtrend resumes.

    Daily cycle allows for even more liberality, but the number starts to get more restrictive, around 1282 or less.

    Intraday — mid to high 1270s.

    So just looking at some fractals

    1. WYSIWYGN

      @zkotpen: and what’s your take on silver ? you follow Gary (gold down = silver down) ?

  22. Robert

    Gold is just too strong. Every week I keep hearing the cycle should top any day. If it keeps going up the cycle will become right translated

  23. Gary Post author

    No one is paying attention to oil. It tested and bounced off the 50 DMA today.

    It’s my opinion that sentiment just got a little too bullish and needed a dip into a half cycle low to set the stage for the next leg up. Perfect setup for traders to “sell the news” on the OPEC meeting but not to change the intermediate trend.

    1. ras

      Oil got slammed down to ma 20 and bounces back a touch above ma 50 from below. Hard to see anything substantial here right now. Oil in twilight zone. Tough to get excited about oil until we see a trend change in oih as in November. When that happens, there will be plenty of time to board oil complex.

  24. Bigdaddy

    Man, it’s boring without the American markets to play. The Canadian markets are not doing much.

  25. Don

    dboz: You nailed flip-flop Pedestrian with his own words and he typically responded with childish name calling. Don’t worry about it. You were right.

  26. ziasDad

    Gary, I know you’re a cycles and sentiment guy, so you probably don’t pay much attention to funny-mentals. But regarding dollar fundamentals, I don’t see how they can support a prolonged bear. You could argue that all fiat currencies are toast, but because they trade against each other, some will be stronger, others weaker.

    The fundamentals for the dollar put it in the strong group in my opinion. If you’re saying that the dollar will actually be weaker than other fiat currencies, what fundamental reasons do you have to support that view? If QE is your answer, that’s not enough. QE has not produced price inflation across the board. (Asset inflation yes, for some assets such as stocks.) The Fed is gradually raising interest rates which will strengthen the dollar, so in terms of fundamentals, a continuation of the dollar bull looks much more likely than a new dollar bear.

    Thanks!

    1. Gary Post author

      What were the fundamentals that caused the dollar bear from 2001 to 2008?

      There is no real supply and demand fundamentals for currencies IMO. They are like grains of sand on the beach. They can be created endlessly. I tend to think sentiment, and maybe central bank interventions are the only real fundamentals when it comes to currencies.

      1. jake

        Fundamentals are inflate or die without perpetual expansion of the supply there wouldn’t be enough money to repay principle and interest so their going to avoid the contraction Party. But they can’t inflate real commodities over time.

        1. ziasDad

          interest rates were going down from 2001 to 2008, right? Now they are so low, they can’t go much lower, and the Fed is intent on at least keeping the public believing that they will continue to raise rates slowly over time. That pretty much it, when rates are going down, the dollar gets weaker. When rates go up, it gets stronger. ‘course, what other CB’s are doing with their currencies will affect that. If all CB’s are raising rates, then maybe not so positive for the dollar. But right now, the Fed is the only CB that’s raising, so won’t that be positive for the dollar?

          1. Gary Post author

            You might want to take a look at a chart of the dollar from June 2004 till Sept. of 2007 and see if that theory holds water.

          2. jake

            Is the Fed in control of the interest rate or are they following? Whats happened since the Fed hikes?

          3. ziasDad

            So we don’t really know which way rates are headed. Which tells me we can’t really say which way the dollar is headed.

  27. Don

    Gary, what makes you so sure that the miners are going to take a dive and test the Dec lows? Chart pattern perhaps or maybe just a gut feeling? I don’t see that happening although in this manipulated game, anything is certainly possible.

    1. cazabrujas

      I really don’t understand how you ask that question when Gary has been explaining it over and over.

      1. Don

        No, he hasn’t really explained it at all other than to say he was sure “they” would want to drive down the prices of the miners so “they” could load up. That is fine except that it is nothing more than a speculative opinion. There must be more reasoning that is giving Gary his confidence.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ve gone over this multiple times.

          ICL’s must have a failed daily cycle.

          ICL’s must form as at least an ABC correction.

          Almost all ICL’s push the weekly stochastics down to oversold.

          Almost all ICL’s at least tag the lower Bollinger band on the weekly charts. (10, 1.9 setting parameteres).

          None of these requirements have been met yet.

          The dollar has an impending rally out of an intermediate cycle low due. It should rally at least enough to break the intermediate trend line. I think that will be the driver to push gold down into its ICL. But I still think gold is in a triangle so I don’t expect the ICL (at least for gold) to be all that severe. Probably not below 1160-1180.

  28. Don

    The Canadian oils are not impressed with the crude oil rebound and have been declining for about five weeks.

  29. HomerJ

    Bigdaddy

    I’m still waiting on your answer regarding BKX: I asked why and how is it that you see the Canadian Oil market affecting it? It was why you bought into it, at least in part, from your post about it.

  30. Bigdaddy

    Homer, I don’t have any insider info, if that is what you mean. Don pointed out a while back that there was a fair bit of insider buying on BKX. so I checked their financial statements. It looks healthy with a decent balance sheet and it even made money last quarter with oil at $50. So, I bought it. Maybe it will soar or maybe not.

    1. HomerJ

      Bigdaddy, you said it would do well with a Canadian oil market bounce, I want to know why you mentioned the Canadian market.

  31. desertsun999

    Gary, That is awfully early for a 3yr. cycle. I tend to believe that we are headed for 92.50 on the dollar. That is major support and a possible head & shoulders formation that would require a multi-month bounce which would fit right in with a late 3yr. cycle. I have a easier time believing that the 3yr. cycle might be 4 months late rather than a year early. I know that doesn’t fit into your intermediate cycle criteria but the timing sure seems much more probable. If the dollar continues down from here it would have most pm investors in a chase mode which you know the market loves to create. This next week should be an interesting week. The monthly close on the dollar is a big deal this month imo.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m still open to that scenario, but it would require another, possibly short, intermediate cycle for that to happen. We have a pretty clear boodbath phase so this intermediate cycle is coming to an end.

  32. jacob2

    CNBC gold Video:

    Of all places, CNBC’s TA guy Carter Worth lays out a compelling long view on why to buy gold over the S&P, anticipating a big move UP:

    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000622288

    Putting together my wish list for JULY. Run the risk of missing out but Insider buying in individual PM shares is absent and something I would expect to see at a bottom. So I’ll wait some more.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m looking for one more push to overbought on the gold:XAU ratio and that should setup the ratio for a breakdown from the bear flag pattern as gold and miners break out of their basing patterns and miners continue regressing back to a more normal valuation compared to the price of gold.

        Gold is on day 14. We have about 20-25 more trading days for the ratio to reach overbought (gold to move down into its ICL). When that ratio reaches overbought on the stochastics you better be ready to buy buy buy. That will be your last really good opportunity in this sector until we reach the bubble phase several years from now.

        1. Robert

          lol Gold is alrdy breaking out tonight. We are in for a very LONG wait for any ICL. Day 14 and counting

          1. Gary Post author

            I don’t think you understand what a breakout is. For gold to “breakout” it would have to go above 1297.

            This is the counter trend rally that I warned would happen and it’s burning up a lot of days without making a higher high. Classic counter trend behavior to get everyone long before moving down into the ICL.

            I predict most of the decline will happen in the last 7-8 days of the cycle. The ICL should complete right about the 4th of July. The major downside thrust will probably occur after the FOMC meeting.

          2. Gary Post author

            We’re getting very close. Short term sentiment is at 78% bulls on GLD and 81% bulls on SLV. Tops tend to occur when sentiment reaches 80 or higher.

        2. ras

          Right now gld/slv are in ST UT. When they roll over just play the inverse etfs until the trend plays itself out. Better than guessing. Looking too far ahead may not be too helpful.

    1. jacob2

      Gary, thanks for the response. Your chart is my preferred scenario. Getting close.

  33. dboz

    Decision time. If Gary is correct, I expect we see a false breakout and then a downturn to really reset sentiment. I am not sure the drop will be that deep though? Maybe 1245 or so? Still going to wait and see a direction up or down before jumping in.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ke22qTkE/

  34. WYSIWYGN

    Gary, where do you find your sentiment percentages on gold (78) and silver (81).Those on stockcharts.com are not that high, imo.

    1. Gary Post author

      You will need a subscription to sentimentrader.com. You can’t get sentiment readings from stockcharts.

      The bullish percent in stockcharts isn’t a sentiment gauge. It’s a overbought/oversold oscillator derived from point and figure charts.

  35. WYSIWYGN

    is it not a bit dangerous that all of us or now waiting to jump in ? isn’t that called a contrary indicator ?

  36. zkotpen

    WYSIWYGN,

    Thanks for drawing my attention to silver!~

    That was one place I lost money as a newbie — back in 2012-13, so I’ve tended to avoid it, based on the past ๐Ÿ˜‰

    The chart is less regular than that of gold, but at first glance looks much more regular than GDX’s. So thanks for asking about it!

    You know I do my own work and compare notes with others.

    Gary brings instincts and experience to the table; I bring math and science.

    I see the current daily cycle in silver as at or near a top.

    Intermediate cycle — looks like it’s getting ready to start moving back down as well. Let’s see how it does at the 50 day SMA first! So far, things are looking rather bearish at that key area…

  37. WYSIWYGN

    looks like the metals are beginning to crumble down. Will Gary be right (again) ?

  38. Steffmeister

    Thank you for your information Gary, much appriciated! You are very transparent with your calls and trade ideas. Not keeping your edge to yourself. You are a generous person.

    However I do think you are a little bit overoptimistic about the Gold breakout. That is not what the major fractal in Gold is indicating. We will probably only tag 1280 in the next run up, a double top. After the top there is a great risk that we will make a double bottom from the current low from 2015, sitting at 1050ish.

    Then it’s time to back up the truck and just buy and forget for a couple of years. We will most certainly brake the high from 2011 with a substancial margin imo. So listen to Pedestrian at your own risk!

  39. zkotpen

    No backing up trucks in precious metals for at least a decade!!!

    Get your subjectivity out of your head!!!

    1. Steffmeister

      It’s based on mother natures math ๐Ÿ˜› the humongous fractal in Gold …

  40. zkotpen

    Tradingview.com now also has a “correlation coefficient” (CC) to show correlations between two securities/commodities/indexes.

    If you’re talking about some or other correlation, you’re just blowing smoke, unless you can back it up QUANTITATIVELY!

    So I just added CC to the monthly USDJPY chart — there is a strongly negative CC between that currency pair and XAUUSD on the monthly chart, at -0.9470… for example.

  41. JJHarmen

    What has happened to “I made my lunch money” Goild? His insight was invaluable.

    1. Kruzoe

      Well, rumour has it he has moved on to “all you can eat” dinner. Talk about success taking over your stomach.

  42. desertsun999

    Gary, if the dollar closes out the month at this level or lower on Wed. I think that there is going to be more pain involved for pm investors not currently in the market. If we close out the month at 98 or better then I would be wide open to your triangle targets on gold. Things are starting to get interesting.

  43. redbaron9

    Not going down , but when will gld go up? nobody is interested in gold anymore.

    1. Dday

      Nothing going on to move gold today, wait till later in week for NFP which should move it one way or the other. Till then 1255-1270…

  44. jake

    No love for miners or oil stocks this morning.
    GG is below the 10/2008 price when gold was at $680.

    1. redbaron9

      Wonder why GG is below 2008 price when gold was at $680?

      Something to do with energy? Cost more to operat the mining company now?

  45. ARends

    Gary

    US Semiconductor has gone from 550 2016 feb to 1041 till now, thats close to double or 100% and US tech from 2015Aug double or 100% that both seem like 5 th leg. this is in a year

    That seems to me to be parabolic, what is your comments to that as it does not stack up. Both seem to be double top. It seems that 2001 it did that in the last month to the peak, so that does make a case. It might play out that way with all the money in the market now to accelerate greater.

    This would be a better play if we can determine till when to stay in if it play out the same?

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s not going to be a straight shot, there will be pullbacks… but let me say it again: 10,000 will be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

    1. HomerJ

      VIX is at the day’s low and near 10. Not sure what you are seeing, it isn’t acting up at all.

    1. victor

      I’m waiting for my NXT.TO to shoot up soon, the updates of their Belize and Vietnam projects should come soon…

  46. bluelagoon

    For anyone who follows NG – it’s been in a channel since April – now it looks like it’s finally breaking out of that channel – to the downside. Perhaps it’ll get to Alex’s target in the $2.60’s….that would be quite the run down.

      1. victor

        I will check if my confidence tells me it’ll go much lower then I will sell at that level …

  47. Don

    We are seeing a remarkably consistent pattern in the SM. The big five push up the QQQ to new highs while the Russel 2000 continues to decline. The declining stocks out number advancers almost 2:1. The divergence seems to be getting a bit extreme.

  48. Robert

    Gary if gold is still going down into an ICL the bulls sure are having an easy time. Miners holding up well all dips being bought. They sure as hell had lots of time to get out. No need for them to panic or worry at all

      1. jake

        I like to find those miners, if they look good now they’re really going to look good when gold turns.

        Oil is sitting in one of Gary’s basing patterns too.

  49. KHT

    I`ve been watching this set up of the USD for some time now and posted a very similar chart a few weeks/month ago.

    https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_bbac7da8524631c1b1ef60bde5776ec9.png

    The two formations, 20 yeras apart, to me anyway look very similar and have developed to where there will be a resolution very soon in a week or so at the latest i think.

    I found the first one I posted and comparing the two you can see how it has developed since. It seems to me 120 is in play.

    https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_3ec32b16f59aa7e7838144269b7229b7.png

    Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts.

  50. JJHarmen

    Don, I see our PGC is at 3 cents. Nice but I was hoping for 30 cents one day. Any news that you are aware of?

  51. Don

    JJ: Nothing that I am aware of. Few of these penny stocks have much more than worthless land claims anyway. I am hoping that it may be the start of a pump and dump in progress. Beware of ‘good’ news.

    1. Bigdaddy

      I had that stock once and sold it for what I paid. pedestrian said those penny stocks are all scams and I think he’s right.

  52. Don

    I just picked more ZJG @8.00. That brings my total to 1500 shares. The juniors gold have been beaten down pretty good, Maybe time to contradict Gary and buy.

  53. ras

    Energy complex moribund for another 8-10 days. Until oih turns around, it is difficult to get excited about energy stocks.

  54. Bigdaddy

    I sold my SQQQ at the close for small loss. The QQQ is invincible. I should have bought SRTY instead.

  55. Christian

    Miners are looking ridiculously weak despite Gold’s resilience. That being said, I still think Gold has a date with 1275 by end of week, which could keep Miners suppressed for a couple more days ๐Ÿ™‚

    Got back into DUST @29.25 | Will buy more tomorrow if and when given the opportunity.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/4xfvJd1N/

    Ps: For those of you STILL sitting on the sidelines. Wake the F* up! It’s go time.

    1. ras

      Before buying dust, I will wait for gld to roll over. It is more fun when both are kicking in the same direction.

      1. Christian

        Except that you’ve already missed the bottom in DUST at this point, which increases your risk to reward ratio. Not the best strategy.

          1. Gary Post author

            Of course the problem with that strategy is that in order to catch the middle you need to know where the bottom and top are going to be.

            That’s one of those statements that sounds logical but in real time it’s kind of meaningless.

  56. Bigdaddy

    My sources tell me that crude is going up for the year but you would never know it from the way the oil stocks are behaving.

    1. Christian

      Big Boy! If you really have [quote on quote] SOURCES in the oil industry then perhaps you should take advantage of it because when it comes to trading the stock market — you’re still loosing money AND you’re still not listening.

      Are you seriously that freakin stubborn??

      1. Bigdaddy

        My losses are not that big in total plus I have had some winners. A few good wins and I will be ahead. For you information Christian, my “sources” are the people that own the oil pumps on my property. They are smart cookies and they said oil is going up big time. They want to install three more pumps so I figure they know what is coming price wise.

    2. ras

      It could happen. Oil likely to pause until xle and oih find support in the next 8-10 days. gush could be headed to 20 before it can find some legs. weekly stochs running below 20 for a while. At some point, it will turn around.

      1. bluelagoon

        ras – I agree with you and Alex – the charts do not yet look like oil is ready to move up though we seem to be getting closer. Why do you think the next 8-10 days specifically? And how do you find OIH performs relative to XOI? I’ve never paid attention to that ticker before.

  57. JJHarmen

    bigdaddy, you have got Gary on board with the energy call. He has been in and out of XLE and ERX repeatedly and lost a little just like you do. XLE is at it lowest point since last August. Maybe it is a good time to buy but if oil drops below support at $48, maybe not such a good idea.

  58. Alexandru Popovici

    A FINAL WAKE-UP CALL FOR THE LAST ENERGY BULLS!
    Natgas has convincingly pierced and closed below its 50dma after a long time while oil has had a bear-retracement to its 10dma.

    I really do not get how can anyone be an energy bull now! How can one think that the recent May low was more than a mere DCL?

  59. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, USD bull is far from over. YCL of USX to be set early July and then USX will see 120

  60. palobar

    ”….I am going to make the call well before anybody else….” . Indeed you have made some good calls but dont forget that just a few days ago you called the Dollar’s yearly cycle low. I know others who called the low in 2015 to be a major low without previously coming out every time gold bounced and scream that this it. I agree that we have a false breakout that has to be respected which sometimes can be followed by serious corrections. Claiming that the Dollar is going to be worthless is a big statement. It takes more than a just a weekly chart to figure that. Joke : how can someone be objective with his analysis on the Dollar when he puts gold bars on the background of his website?:):)

    1. desertsun999

      With the current data that we have his call is spot on. This is a highly fluid situation with multiple aspects of TA. Believe me when I say that a weekly chart plays a small part in his call. You need to have a basic understanding of what is going on because it is impossible to rely on a strangers advice and be able to weather the storms that come with volatile price movements in the market. The human condition just does not permit. It is engrained into our DNA from primitive survival instincts.

    2. Gary Post author

      Who said the dollar would be worthless? That’s ridiculous. As long as the US has a GDP and the government has the power to tax the dollar will always have some worth.

      Now bitcoin on the other hand will be worthless sometime in the future. ๐Ÿ™‚

  61. desertsun999

    I just consulted the oracle on the chances of making money by listening to comments on this blog. Shake Shake Shake……..Outlook not so good……Shake Shake Shake…………Better not tell you now………….Shake Shake Shake…………Cannot predict now…………..Shake Shake Shake……………Very doubtful. Well, there you have it folks, the oracle has spoken…………invest accordingly…..LOL

    1. Dday

      Yep you have hit the nail on the head. Blogs are just that, entertaining but not useful financial instruments…

  62. Alexandru Popovici

    RAS, yeap, energy in the dolldrums.

    Another thing I find posted and assumed everywhere, not only here, is that gold is in IC decline…I find this baffling – gold and Treasuries must post higher highs before reversing.

  63. Alexandru Popovici

    Dday, blog are not only entertaining but also alternative sentiment gauging environments.

  64. Alexandru Popovici

    personally I would be surprised if Gary would have this blog now only for fun & subscription marketing.
    I would not be surprised if Gary has a tool of sentiment gauging based on topics he tackles and use it as an enforcer of his opinion (if posters get massively angry at his view on the topic) or as a red flag if posters get overwhelmingly onto his boat.
    and more than that can be done based on data expressed on a blog –> THE MORE PEOPLE EXPRESS THEIR OPINIONS THE MORE RELEVANT THE DATA IS STATISTICALLY!

  65. Ed

    I suspect the same.
    However it’s entertaining to come here and see what some of these people have to say.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      yeap!
      and once you have a large pool of posters, you get statistical relevance to define posters in groups, such as “the few” and “the throng”, based on their historical ability to foresee a trend and get some beauuutiful sentiment results that no other existing indicator can.
      basically, the Author of the blog has to draw as many posters as possible each time to make it work as a trading tool.

      1. Gary Post author

        You need to get real sentiment data from sentimentrader.com. Trying to extrapolate it from a blog probably isn’t going to work.

        1. jake

          I bet there are a lot of hedge fund managers, quants and future traders on the blog
          Looking for sentiment clues.

  66. ARends

    I see sentiment has faded short term to 66% Gary. Do you have similar and does this mean we have a bounce up?

    1. Gary Post author

      I look for a bounce (or possible cycle low) when sentiment drops below 20%. I also keep tabs on the 20 DMA of sentiment. When that drops below 35% you could be getting close to a cycle bottom.

  67. ras

    Catching the middle is safe, easy and meaningful for anyone who is not locked into a particular outcome. It is easier and more meaningful and safer than taking premature positions leaning on some outlook. There are so many ways of catching the middle. It is not a secret. Wait until price moves above a rising ma on a favourite time frame and when price pulls back to the rising ma, enter the trade. My point is when the underlying commodity begins to kick in the same direction, swings amplitudes will be larger. Unless one is under compulsion for bragging rights about being first, catching the middle works consistently and well.

    No need for sentiment, cycles etc. All these are factored into price.

      1. zkotpen

        Gary,

        Looks like a typo or something: You wrote 10, 20, & 50 week SMA, but posting on a DAILY chart…???

        Also… I don’t see the 20 on there?

      2. ras

        Sorry, not so, I disagree. I speak from personal experience. Market players tend to feel that that the train has left the station without them, if they do not catch a swing right at the beginning. No need for anxiety. There will be profit taking by swing traders and price pulls back to a rising ma. Just enter the trade. Exiting from the trade is a more complex process. It can be learned only from personal experience.

        Mastering fear of missing a trade is worthwhile.

  68. zkotpen

    ras,

    Sounds like the most prudent, sober & sane post on here in a while!!

    Gary likes sentiment — I don’t track it myself, but I pay attention to his comments on it — why not?

    You might want to add cycles to your formula, as a sort of backup, since we’re talking about cycles in price. Think about it: Choose your favorite time frame. Once there, price go up, price come down, price go up, price come down… all the way to infinity. Add that observation/verification to what you wrote & sounds like a solid game plan with high probability of success!

  69. zkotpen

    Gary,

    You know that Xmas song, where they sing, “do you see what I see?”

    I’m gonna have to say NO! On your intermediate cycle analysis. Granted, I’m just looking at XLE for the first time on my own charts —

    If you’re talking intermediate cycle, then you’re talkin’ 50 day SMA!!! An’ dat bad boy did not break… did not behave like ras suggested in any way, by any stretch of the imagination

    In all fairness… a little poke above the 50 day SMA does not constitute rising above said SMA & pulling back TO the same.

    Be fair, buddy!

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think I’ve ever seen an intermediate oil cycle with 4 daily cycles embedded within it. So either oil has bottomed, or we’re seeing something that has never happened before or if it has it has been very rare.

      I like to buy when the weekly charts are oversold. The weekly charts of XLE are extremely oversold. Short term sentiment on XLE is at 8% bulls. I’m one of those 8% ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. zkotpen

        Oh…. I thought you were talking about that part in early April, where it broke the trend line & poked above the 50 day SMA… moving on to end of May… will take a look…

        1. Gary Post author

          That one is easy. The weekly charts are oversold. Everyone is bearish. Sentiment is excessively bearish. It’s time to be a contrarian.

          I’m not worried about perfect timing like most you you. I’ll sell when the weekly charts get overbought.

          I used the same strategy with gold in December when everyone was bearish.

          It’s simple: buy when no one wants it and the weekly charts are oversold. Sell when everyone has to have it and the weekly charts are overbought. Such a simple strategy but almost none of you can do it because your attention spans aren’t long enough to allow it to work.

          1. HomerJ

            No matter how you dice it though, those COP Calls aren’t going anywhere – breakeven is $51.50++ at this point with time ticking by.
            Maybe a case could be made for ERX for a longer period hold (although it’s a 3x ETF and SHOULD NOT BE), but those options should have been cut to preserve capital. At this point, a $7 rally in the underlying is needed for any kind of profit.

          2. ras

            Weekly charts oversold, yes. Everybody bearish, no. Oils likely in final phase of descent. Div beginning to appear on daily macd. Folks who bought too early will do just fine, if they hold and sell when weekly charts get OB.

  70. Goild

    Good morning,

    I am not dead yet.
    But listening to your expertise and making lunch money.
    Have a great trading day.

  71. zkotpen

    It does look like XLE is starting to bottom, move down is losing momentum… but that observation only serves to reinforce ras’s point — why not wait until you’ve got some sort of confirmation?

    On the intermediate cycle, each of those bounces since April 5 looks like it’s losing the 50 day SMA more & more. On the daily cycle, well, April 5 looks like a very left translated cycle. Intraday cycle volatility is the scariest looking — it seems to be expanding to the downside.

    Even if it is over sold, it’s prudent to get a reversal — even if only on a small wiggle type of move — before committing — either that, or keep your stops super tight.

    But to be sure, it’s that intraday move that would make me the most nervous about taking a long position in energy stocks right now… if that volatility keeps opening up to the downside… well, there, it just did as I’m writing this and the market opens at 9:30 a.m. …

  72. zkotpen

    … and now all long bets are off on the XLE… at the DAILY cycle degree. That big gap down portends further downside in the daily cycle, after some consolidation of the smallest degree that I monitor… but to be clear the DAILY cycle does suggest that the move down is not over yet, and that hint at expanding volatility intraday was for real!

  73. zkotpen

    One may choose to believe it or not, but this is the first time I’m looking at XLE on my charts… from about 9 a.m. EDT or thereabouts…

    1. zkotpen

      … I actually switched my GDX charts to XLE for a brief look, as they use the same settings (6.5h settings, vis ร  vis 24h settings)

  74. bluelagoon

    Everything has started getting bearish out there – QID, TZA, Gold and bearish oil etf’s all up.

  75. zkotpen

    And now with that monster gap down in XLE, DAILY volatility is also expanding. There was a hint of that with the market closed, but the damage to XLE’s DAILY cycle includes opening up DAILY volatility as well, with the threat of opening up INTERMEDIATE volatility.

    Not a good long bet until these tendencies begin to reverse.

    This analysis of the past hour or so is based on two things:

    1. Mathematics.

    2. Science.

    No more, no less.

  76. Bigdaddy

    We are off to the races! I bought 500 SRTY this morning at 48.01 and things the market went south shortly after. Maybe today will be my lucky day cause the Lord knows it’s my turn.

    1. Emptyness

      Bigdaddy, be careful ! I see danger coming that you will be bankrupt soon. Better do some swing trading – not day trading. Only few guys are making money with day trading. Most day traders become bankrupt sooner or later.

        1. HomerJ

          Since you forget so easily, I’ll ask again: A couple of days ago you said that you bought into the stock and mentioned that they should de well when Canadian oils turn. Tell me why you said that, I’d like to know why you think that BKX would turn if Canadian oils turn up
          Simple enough?

          1. Bigdaddy

            I watch the Canadian oils and they seem to pretty much all move together, up or down. BKX has a decent balance sheet and are making money with low oil prices. Don pointed out once that the insiders were buying so i figure it is as good a bet as any of Canadian oils. If they move up maybe BKX should be a good performer.
            That’s all I know. I picked up another 10 thousand shares this morning at .205. I think I will hold this one for a while even though I am not very good at doing that.
            What are your holdings? Any oils you could recommend?

          2. HomerJ

            Bigdaddy The reason I brought this up goes back to my questions (THAT YOU PROBABLY DIDN’T READ OR MAYBE DECIDED NOT TO THINK ABOUT) when you were posting your losing trades on everything.
            3-4 times I have asked you, why do you go into a particular trade, what is your objective, WHAT IS YOUR REASON FOR ENTERING, what are your expectations. You haven’t answered until now.

            And I will say this: You have no clue WHY you are in a trade, you JUST GO WITH WHAT ANYONE ELSE SAYS.

            Your BKX trade shows that you don’t research anything, just go along with what you hear. Forget the fact that this company has issued 60,000,000 shares just in 2016, forget the fact that they are spending over $10 million in exploration on less than $3 million gross revenues (meaning they will need more money and issue more shares), let’s even forget the fact that this used to be a $6 stock until they sold off large assets and now trade at $0.22.
            THE MOST DAMNING EVIDENCE THAT YOU HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT YOUR TRADES IS THAT YOU THINK THAT BKX WILL PERFORM WITH CANADIAN OIL SECTOR

            BKX only trades on the Venture exchange. They have zero, nada, zilch, zippo, fuck all, ABSOLUTELY NOT ONE CANADIAN OIL WELL. In fact, they are based in California with operations in USA and a few locations in Europe.
            So… that’s my point, you have no clue what you are doing. I don’t care if you think it’s harsh, don’t care if you tell me to “piss off” again. You must like losing money because this is what you will keep doing and your profitable trades will just be the result of luck.
            Think about what I just wrote here.
            Good luck, you’ll need it because you treat this like a game.

  77. Don

    JJ, I sold 200 thousand PGC @.04. The rest of my holdings in that stock are now paid for with some profit left over. Looks like I might be right about a pump and dump in progress.

  78. Don

    All of the big five are down today. That is a change of a pattern of relentless upside although the day is far from over.

  79. desertsun999

    Gary, I just read an article showing that the $CAD commercial longs are at a 23yr record high. This fits in very well with your latest call on the $USD.

  80. JJHarmen

    Don, I only have 200 thousand shares so I am hoping it will go to 50 cents or better so I can make some real money. Good idea though to sell enough to pay for the rest.

  81. JJHarmen

    Be in energy is what Gary said. Oil and natural gas are both going to hell right now. Where is the bottom? Maybe when Gary gets stopped out?

  82. Bigdaddy

    WTF? Is that it for the sell off? 10 measly points down and the banks start buying like imbeciles.

  83. Alexandru Popovici

    Both Russell200 & NatGas are close to delivering failed daily cycles!

    Is there still anyone thinking crude oil left more than a DCL at its sub-44 low this month?
    Does anyone still think that gold won’t clear above 1300 before reversing and that its last ICL wat not MAR11 ?!!

    1. bluelagoon

      I believe Gary thought oil had its ICL at sub 44 and is now on it’s way up…..but price is sure not acting like oil is coming out of the gates of an ICL to me. Money’s being made on the short side at the moment.

      As well, a lot of people are in the camp of gold going into its ICL now……it’s currently in a very tight channel which makes it a dull trade right now…..it’s going to break and I will get on board when it does….but for now, I can’t afford to guess which way it will break.

      1. jake

        When the Shorts get on a jag forget about fundamentals.
        Someone salted the mines with Kryptonite this morning.

      2. ras

        As the saying goes, never fight the tape, no matter what the opinions are. Unless gld rolls over, simply keep all opinions on the back burner. As for the energy complex, it is weak. Just unable to get excited about it.

        SM beginning to sputter. Tvix beginning to wake up.

  84. bluelagoon

    Tomorrow is a big news day – Job Claims, Chicago PMI, Crude Report, NG Report and then Fri is the NFP report. The only thing up today is gold and VIX. Wondering if end of this week we will finally see a change in trend to the downside.

    Oil and NG are already heading down again after a correction bounce up. So Alex seems to be right once more. And RAS as well.

    I think Gary will eventually be right in that oil will go up again but the question is when and how much of a drawdown later. My COP options are down +80% and my ERX is down 12%.

    1. Don

      Options are a bitch. I quit playing them thirty years ago after losing a ton of cash. You can’t beat the time decay unless you have inside (and usually illegal) information on a particular company.

      1. ziasDad

        there are ways to do options where you minimize time decay or use time decay in your favor. Deep in the money options don’t have much premium left in their price, most of the price is the intrinsic value of the option, so deep in the money options several months out is a way to position directionally for a market. Vertical spreads also minimize time decay but limit the upside. Selling options puts the time decay in your favor. You can sell cash covered puts, covered calls, or spreads.

        But if you’re talking about being long a put or a call, at the money or out of the money, you’re right, it’s a fool’s game. You have to not only be right about direction, but you’ve got to have the timing near perfect. You might get lucky once or twice, but over the long term, it’s really hard to make money that way.

  85. Don

    The VIX bottomed on Friday at 9.65 and now at 10.60. It’s not a spike and those who bought UVXY on Friday haven’t made a dime. The decay on that junk ETF is the worst of the worst.

    1. bluelagoon

      You’re right Don – when I started trading – I lost a lot of money following on the VIX etf’s – unless you get timing 100% right – the decay on those is worst than any other commodity ETF.

      And I normally don’t play options – don’t know enough about them – was just following Gary. But from the looks of it – you have to be 100% right on timing with those too or you can lose a bundle.

  86. Robert

    Whats the deal with gold? Its still not dropping no matter what. Looks like new highs still ahead?

  87. Bigdaddy

    The SOBs are taking back my profit on SRTY. What ever happened to the days of a 10% correction once in a while? It seems that a 2% is a big deal now.

  88. JJHarmen

    This SM is looking ragged. I just shorted UPRO at 101.92. Let’s see some downside.

  89. Americano

    On Gary’s premium site I read he may fade the public blog because of some losers nickel & diming him for prediction minutae.
    I hope he doesn’t because I think it’s a sign of strength to just blow off those who essentially criticize his predictions with obvious negative- emo bias.
    Seriously it’s like the dweebs that correct your spelling for a text message – that’s what it amounts to.
    Gary insists on taking on the hardest markets and he wins – I cleaned up last year on his miners call.
    Playing gold the way he does is akin to training for a swim meet by swimming in a lagoon of sharks instead of a pool!
    He could just cake walk it & do Bitcoin calls because it’s EXACTLY behaving how gold would if it wasn’t strapped down by banks governments etc…..
    But noooooooo. He still does the hard calls with metals because that’s what people want here.
    I don’t get it but I think some appreciation is in order of this awesome blog he puts out just because he’s open like that.

    1. JJHarmen

      I’m gagging here! Man, get your head out of Gary’s ass before you smother! Gary is a big boy who can handle himself. Besides, this blog is what brings in the subs, when he gets it right.

  90. Don

    Dust profits going to hell fast. Gold stocks are on the move. I think Gary was long Dust, correct?

      1. Robert

        You are on the verge of being wrong Gary. If gold doesnt start sliding soon u might have to do a new analysis on gold as the cycles arent working

        1. Gary Post author

          Gold is making a higher daily cycle high. Miners aren’t even close.

          What does that tell you?

          I made this same warning in April. I think you chose to ignore it then too as I recall.

    1. Robert

      Yup this has not been a good call on gold by Gary. Everyday gold is going up. Its now way into the cycle the longer it keeps going up the less likely his call works out

      1. Gary Post author

        It surely is taking a long time for the dollar to bottom and gold to top but both are still due any day.

        1. jake

          Euro is making another run at resistance and the dollar doesn’t look like it will hold support here, next stop would be 95.78.

  91. jake

    Count’n your chickens hey, miners got slammed
    Today before the run up in gold just to let ya know we’s ain’t in control.

  92. Gary Post author

    It’s starting to look like the miners are forming a coil on the weekly charts.

    Presumably they would break to the downside later in the daily cycle and then once everyone gets bearish they would reverse and give as the breakout leg to the upside and confirm the bear market is over.

    1. Robert

      Hence its gonna be tough to make money on short side. I doubt you will get the December undercut low again Gary. Gold too strong

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold is on day 15 of it’s daily cycle. It tends to bottom around day 30-40.

        Let’s see if you can still make that statement in 15-20 days.

        And for your information I never thought gold would go below the December low (gold is in a triangle). It’s the miners (and maybe silver) that are at risk of dropping below the December low at the next DCL.

  93. Steffmeister

    Bought DUST today, despite the impulsive wave up in gold 80-90% of my miners are down, this is a fake move up in gold.

    My first scale in of 3

  94. Bigdaddy

    Homerj, I saw that BKX has been issuing shares but the current price reflects that and is still trading about one third it’s book value, So, why would the insiders be buying if it’s a garbage stock? It doesn’t look so bad as what you are saying. Thanks for sharing your concerns but I think i will even buy more. You are right about it being a game for me. I have cancer and will probably never get to spend all my money so I am doing what ever i please and i love playing the markets even though it pisses me off sometimes.

    1. Don

      Sorry to hear about the cancer thing bigdaddy. They have made big strides in the treatment of some cancers so maybe you will get to spend all your money yet.

    2. bluelagoon

      Most people don’t believe it but there are lots of cures for cancer out there if you look down the unconventional routes. For example, there’s a doctor in Italy curing patients with simple baking soda. Supposedly cancer can’t exist in an alkaline body so find ways to make it alkaline like lemon juice with baking soda and water every morning. Best of luck to you bigdaddy.

    3. HomerJ

      Bigdaddy, my point is not about a stock being garbage or gold. It’s the fact that you seem to just go in a trade without thought, maybe by someone’s mention or someone else’s sentiment.
      Insider buying is good to see and I did look at the SEDAR filings – large blocks which don’t amount to much in dollar terms. Also it’s not clear how much is grants as the Canadian side is not as detailed as the US one.

      Look, I don’t care if you burn your money in a BBQ or not, but if you want to trade with a higher “win rate”, then understand why you are going into it. This way instead of blowing what you have you could increase your net holdings/cash position and leave it to someone worthwhile or, better yet, to an animal shelter. Since you are Canadian, your bills should not be an issue.

  95. 1970confused

    There has been a very heavy hand holding the miners down since Feb. I wonder when they will take it off???? Gold @1270$ and we are still at rock bottom!!!!!!

    1. Gary Post author

      I think the banksters are going to try to create an undercut low (in miners) at the next DCL. That will set up what could be another baby bull like trade just like the undercut in January 2016.

      1. Robert

        The lowest miners will go is the May low. No way we get undercut of December. Mark my words

  96. Don

    Gary, you and a several others are on the same side of the miner trade. If you are proven to be wrong, there is going to be a lot of hurt . I figure that as long as Pedestrian doesn’t change his mind and go long, the top for gold is likely not in yet.

    1. Gary Post author

      Not even close yet. I would like to see the Nasdaq generate some kind of pullback this summer but like I keep saying 10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

      If we ever do get a pullback, and everyone on here starts foaming at the mouth thinking we have the final top, that will be the last great buying opportunity before the next phase of the bubble begins.

      I’m saving a big chunk of capital just in case we do get a pull back like that some time this summer.

  97. Gary Post author

    If XLE can end the day in the green I’d say there’s a pretty good chance this will be the bottom.

    The negative sentiment on the blog towards energy has reached a crescendo, and short term sentiment on XLE was at 8% bulls yesterday.

    OIH is already in the green.

    1. jake

      Oil could trend sideways for the better part of the year, did Trump say he wants to sell the reserves?

  98. 1970confused

    Miners being held down like this when Gold is up again is just mind boggling. Even after a 6 year bear market they just can not get enough, squeezing every last drop of blood ????????

  99. Bob

    I’m impressed JDST is holding up very well while gold is likely establishing a new top. JDST is on day 10 on the upswing.

  100. 1970confused

    Daily, weekly and a nice hammer on the monthly, Gold looks fine, They are screwing everyone by keeping the miners down!

    1. Gary Post author

      I think they are going to create an incredible buying opportunity in miners by late June or early July.

  101. JJHarmen

    SPY dropped two ticks below it’s earlier low of the day and snapped back up. It looked like a stop grab but the action looks phoney, meant to unnerve shorts like me. I think we will be headed down by close.

  102. 1970confused

    Gary in April you said the chance to buy miners would come in june now its in july ….maybe next year????

    1. Gary Post author

      “I think they are going to create an incredible buying opportunity in miners by late June or early July.”

      Did you even read this?

  103. 1970confused

    Yes but now july is in the comment which wasn’t when you kept making the calls in april. I’m just saying that of course there will be a chance one of these months thats all!

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll go over it again for the I don’t know how many times it’s been.

      Gold’s daily cycle runs on average 35-45 days. We are on day 15. So there is potentially 20-30 more trading days till the bottom.

      If it’s 20 then gold would bottom on June 28st.

      If on the other hand the cycle pushes into the latter part of the timing band and say bottoms on the July jobs report that would be day 42.

        1. Gary Post author

          What difference does that make? All that matters is where you sell at. Not what happens between buying and selling.

          I want to sell DUST when gold is making a DCL. That’s still 20-30 days away.

          Many people had that same mentality in gold back in Dec. They sold at the bottom when I told them they would get a chance to sell at a top if they only waited.

          The same thing applies now. Sell DUST when gold is making a DCL, not when it’s still pushing into a cycle top.

          Logical right?

          Except almost no one can act logically in this business. They are driven by their emotions so the are always buying at tops and selling at bottoms.

        2. Christian

          Seriously Robert.. Will you stop asking the same freaking questions over and over and over again? You’re turning into a nuisance!

          Get a hobby and stop staring at your computer screen — Doctor’s orders.

          1. Robert

            Nah man im jus trying to get to the bottom of this gold nonsense. Gary is the only one here giving me advice, u sure aren’t all ur doing is criticizing

  104. bluelagoon

    Anyone else see a head and shoulders pattern on the DWT 4hour chart? It’s looking like the crude report may send it down, at least temporarily, tomorrow?

  105. bluelagoon

    GUSH, UGAZ look like local bottoms. My guess is they bottom today/tomorrow – tbd whether this will be a small or big bounce.

  106. Bigdaddy

    Damm, everytime I get a little profit , bang, they take it away. This fricken market refuses to correct.

  107. Don

    When the real decline comes, you won’t trust it and will hesitate to go short in a big way. There is only one final top that ends every bull market. All other moves are on to new highs.

    1. Gary Post author

      The advance decline isn’t even diverging yet. 10,000 will be a piece of cake…

  108. Christian

    BS Robert — I timed the exact bottom TWICE with DUST and shared my strategy with everyone on this blog. Not my fault if you don’t have the balls to pull the trigger..!

    Stop worrying everytime the Market lets out a fart; you’ll live longer ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Robert

      What is your position now are u still long DUST? Give me some confidence then since your so cool and calm

  109. dboz

    Gold looks like it had its blow off top today. Could be entering the house of pain soon.

  110. Alexandru Popovici

    Stocks want a higher high in early june – let’s bounce then.
    I close my short CAC40 position.
    This will be an opportunity for gold and Treasuries to find their DCLs before heading higher.

  111. Robert

    I am convinced that Elliott Wave is worthless. This guy Avi is calling for GDX to hit low 24 region. It would have done that along time ago with gold near 1280. He chart shows a wave to low 24s then down to the 21 region. It’s crap

  112. isavage

    So just as much I’m a Bull on PM’S and Miners today re brought JDST and short UGLD at the falling trend line touch today. Got lucky, and order filled 0.01c from the day high when away from the screen!

    Still holding under water JNUG just incase we get more up side tomorrow or yikes a breakout above that trend line going back to 2011 highs with NFPR numbers ! ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

    I’m too frustrated now by this F…ing line its cost me way too much by each time not selling at it or at least covering like now.

    Gary hope you’re having a blast on your climbing trip and I hope you’re bang on with the pullback to June/July. If not we going to be looking for your fast advice of “How high” before we all need to switch to go long after crossing over the line.

  113. Ed

    This is just my observation. Gary is good selling at top or selling before selloff. But he is often laye on getting onboard. He waits too long to buy in my opi nion.

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL was I too late in buying at the Dec. bottom in gold?

      Am I late in buying energy?

      What I don’t do is buy late in an intermediate cycle when everyone else is getting suckered onto the long side right before the market moves down into a larger degree correction.

      If you haven’t figured it out by now I’m a contrarian. I usually do the opposite of what everybody else is doing. The trick is to wait till sentiment is extreme before you take a contrarian position.

      Sentiment is extreme in energy.

      Sentiment was extreme in silver in early April and that marked the top. I would like to see sentiment on the entire metals complex get much more bearish before I want to go long. I want to see everyone on here panicked and unable to see any future for metals before I want to buy.

      Basically I want to see everyone bearish on gold like they are bearish on energy right now. When we get back to that kind of sentiment then I’ll be telling people to buy gold like I’m telling you to buy energy now.

      1. Gary Post author

        Stocks have not reached a bullish sentiment extreme yet. So there’s no need to try to fight the trend.

        Intermediate sentiment is dead neutral at 53% bulls. Intermediate tops don’t usually occur until sentiment pushes above 70%. It reached 73% bulls on the State of the Union top.

  114. cazabrujas

    Aside from sentimentrader.com, do you look at anything else to gage levels of panic or optimism?

    1. Gary Post author

      Sentiment trader is all you need to get accurate sentiment data.

      The bullish percent indicator is a very good tool for determining oversold or overbought levels. It’s not a sentiment measurement. It shows how many stocks in an index are on point and figure buy signals vs. sell signals.

      Right now energy is at 17% and starting to diverge (which is often a sign that a bottom is about to form).

      For metals it’s at 40%. I’d like to see that under 20% before I get excited about buying metals.

  115. jacob2

    I bought in energy in mid April anticipating that strong seasonal trends would lift all boats. Been a very mixed bag with most of my oil/oil service buys flat to slightly down and solar an alternative energy up. Go figure. Kind of wash at present. Thought about selling all my oil stocks TODAY but decided against it because my emotions are signaling the bottoms near. You’re never sure but hope this is the case. The trend reversal will happen when the market controlling algorithms โ€œunderstandโ€ there are no more sellers to screw over, and then the algo will reverse and push prices higher… we must be there.

  116. jacob2

    When you think it might be a good idea to go outside and puke in the bushes the bottomz-in.

  117. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “Iโ€™ve been long DUST since the top on April 17th.”

    Have to admit, I was super-impressed by that top call in gold & GDX.

    Also like your other comment today, that GDX takes out the December lows (which you’ve long held); and perhaps silver, too. Just looked at silver for the first time in years on Tuesday & came to the same conclusion.

    What I don’t understand it, why you are still long DUST?

    I thought you took profits on that trade & were waiting to reload, in which case, you’d have written something to the effect of, “we took profits on our long DUST trade from April 17 & are looking to re-enter the trade.”

    You’ve got to know that trading Intermediate cycles is harmful to your (portfolio’s) health by now!

    Seems like Christian and I are the only ones who have been calling for gold to get to the 1270-80 area since the DCL was confirmed or shortly thereafter.

    I thought for sure that you, too, would be waiting on the sidelines to re-enter the short trade!

    1. Gary Post author

      The last time I tried to trade from the long side late in an intermediate cycle it bit me in the ass (September). The cycle topped on day 3. No way I’m going to make that mistake twice.

      Realistically There have only been 9 days in the miners rally. They didn’t pop back above the 10 DMA until day 4. So unless one got lucky and caught the exact bottom & exact top there really hasn’t been much money to be made but there is a lot of risk this late in the cycle.

      My plan was to take profits on DUST in the event of a gap down as that would likely be an exhaustion gap…but we never got it so I just held my position and will continue to do so until I think the intermediate cycle has bottomed.

      1. zkotpen

        I concur about not going long on miners for the daily cycle at this late juncture.

        I just figured you’d have taken profits when the daily cycle bottomed.

        At any rate, a new shorting opportunity should present itself soon!

  118. zkotpen

    I don’t know about DXY, but I am currently looking at multi-year chart for USDJPY — that one is still moving UP at the multi-year fractal.

  119. zkotpen

    Actually, I’m wondering if our nimble-fingered friend got his lunch money yesterday???

    Goild, what say you?

    That looks like about a 6% move in NUGT…

    I blew it off, waiting for that eventual shorting set up…

    … but an experienced wiggle trader probably got a good chunk of that action, eh?

    I’m still approaching my 5 year anniversary — I aspire to get to that skill level, not just in analysis, but in practical nuts and bolts trading.

    Again, great to see you alive & kicking, Goild… you inspire me to push forward and become a pro trader, not just an analyst.

    I think I can, I think I can, I think I can…

    I know I can!

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