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What, no summer rally for the miners, downer.
I’ve been trying to warn traders that gold still has at least 5-6 more weeks before a final ICL. The summer ICL usually occurs in June or July. We have to get that before the rally starts.
This is what ICL’s do. They suck gold bugs in and keep them riding the slope of hope all the way down until everyone sells in a panic at the bottom.
When the real bottom occurs there won’t be any one on this blog wanting to go long except me.
That’s how one knows when the rel bottom is near. All the dip buying will have stopped, and in its place we will see panic selling.
So be it.
Nope, not just you Gary. You’re not the only one with common sense, but just remember — this is a bear market 😊 Experts on this blog have said so.
The only satisfaction I get from reading your foolish daily comments is that I know you were heavily long miners all through this decline and are nursing heavy losses. Because it is a bear market. You will learn that better by reading your monthly statements.
Ahem.. I’m the one that recommended DUST on April 4th you f–ing tool, Lol! Don was right.. you are entertaining, I’ll give you that.
You will never get into a church with that potty mouth.
Yup, and as far as higher-highs and higher-lows on the mining charts, well that was already busted in the past few days if the GDX daily chart is our guide. We now have a situation where the May lows have dropped below the March lows and the pattern for the year is a rather common double-top where the April high was unable to exceed the February high. This has trouble written all over it and is most assuredly not bullish unless our idea of bullish is for GDX to retest the December lows.
(at which point we might hope for a decent rally).
GDXJ meanwhile has suffered a category 4 hurricane decline and looks to be strongly attracted to its December 2016 lows at this time. A break below that key support and its look out below boys!
We are just waiting for the HUI to follow and also fail when reaching its March lows to put that really bearish icing on the cake for the whole precious metals mining sector. That can’t be too far off if the yen/$ keeps falling.
Nikkei meanwhile has hit 20,000 btw (futures) so lets see if that will be repulsed down from resistance or just be a pit stop before new highs are made. This is the only thing that matters right now. If Japanese indices don’t stop going up its going to be an ugly, ugly summer for everyone in metals.
There’s nothing unusual about that. That’s what happens during an intermediate cycle decline. At least one daily cycle will make a lower low. Stair stepping down so to speak.
Unless gold breaks below the larger yearly cycle low (December) there is no indication that this is anything other than a basing pattern in a larger bull market.
As I’ve said over and over, until the stock market bubble pops it’s going to be hard for the metals to gain a lot of traction. While there is free money to be had in stocks there isn’t going to be a lot of motivation to buy gold. So it’s going to stay stuck in the basing pattern for awhile. Maybe the rest of the year.
I am very sorry but I cannot agree with you Gary.
There is not one chance in a hundred this is a bull market in precious metals or mining stock. I think almost every person who comes to this site will attest to that after reviewing their own broker statements. During a real bear market (like we have) even the pros get caught and lose money sometimes. That is happening right now.
But during a genuine bull though even retards and monkeys with darts make profit when all boats float at once.
We are not there yet.
Just a basing patten. Nothi g unusual about that.
Well if a basing pattern destroys your account then we need a new word for what is happening since splitting hairs over what to call this market is hardly doing justice to what it means in the real world where the HUI sports what looks like a great big, fat double-top for the first five months of this year suggesting its going all the way back to its lows.
That’s hardly a bullish liftoff.
In a *real* bull market you can hold and not worry. Do you have that confidence after all the recent declines? Of course not. Even you are saying to stay out of the metals market and wait if you are unable to trade the short side.
And look at the poor saps who bought JNUG as it has plummeted some 70% this year, been share-split and then kept on falling! You have got to stop calling this a bull market since it leads people to believe those devastated positions will be rescued in a bounce.
They will NEVER be rescued though. Not after a reverse share split.
Miners are a long way above the 2015 low. It’s still a bull market.
Like I said, it’s going to take time to turn the 200 week moving average back up.
Is the price of 200 weeks ago important? How about the price 199 weeks ago and that of 198 weeks ago? What I am saying is that its historical prices that are moving the MA’s today and if metals keep falling then the 200 week MA will just keep falling too (not get pushed anywhere). So it is not just time that matters. It is time AND price. Gold must rise or the MA isn’t going anywhere favourable.
That indicator is worthless for reading the future.
Gary — Can you do me a favour?! The next time you’re off on a climbing trip, can you take Pedo with you and push him off the cliff when you get to the top?! Lol 😂 Myself and a few others would be forever grateful.
You wrote≥≥≥≥≥≥ This is what ICL’s do. They suck gold bugs in and keep them riding the slope of hope all the way down until everyone sells in a panic at the bottom.
Any chance we will hear them scream?
Possible initial target 100.58 for dollar, classic descending wedge. Bullish for the dollar
https://invst.ly/3x3z9
Sounds good. If we can never go up with lots of bulls, how is it ever going to be possible to go up without them? I have to realize that we are in a bear market in PMs.
Having seen crytocurrencies get flooded with 80 billion dollars in a month, its more than likely people have simply left the PM sector for greener, non manipulated pastures. Bitcoin is up nearly 1000 out of November 2016. Stays overbought for weeks. Oversold conditions last a few days then right back to overbought. All bulls, no problem going up massively. Gold can barely even get to over bought. Silver struggles to even take a bounce out of oversold.
There is no money in this sector. No reason to believe PMs are bullish. If we have to keep going down and down and down retracing 70% or more each time and then failing to ever get to a new high, really seeing that we are not in a bull. As soon as any gains are made, everyone sells and landslide losses occur.
If you don’t build heading up, you can’t buy the dips, you don’t make higher highs and keep ending up back at the bottom, what is possibly going to allow any upside?
All you are saying is wait for the cellar, play the bounce and then time to bail and wait for another massive down side reset. So yes, traders are doing good. People invested back early in 2016 and have been smashed ruthlessly at every turn. Every dip buy is a loser. Massive loser. We break at every support level.
Just saying, capitulation is nearing. Over a year of losing for many. Losing Bigly. Having to sell long positions and wait for a collapse to rebuy does not sound bullish.
No, No, No……. What Gary has been saying for a while now is gold is in a bottoming pattern/triangle and will bounce around for a while yet. Next downside target I would say is $1178. So yes at the moment gold/miners suck if you are long but that will change at some point, and yes if invested in Tripple ets thas a monumental loss. If bought high near the top it really sucks, but the pattern technicals were saying don’t buy. Emotional trading, gold can only go on up at the top , now it can only go down as it continues falling…. Heres the weekly chart. The good news is the RSI has fallen quite considerably but still got quite a way to go, macd only just crossing and stoch at neutral…
https://invst.ly/3×418
sorry top line of triangle was a bit askew in the diagram
https://invst.ly/3x45b
Sounds about right Boss. Speculator longs are indeed soured on the sector and in a selling mood while others are outright capitulating into the ongoing decline. Confidence has been badly hurt and it will take a long while before gold (and especially silver) have a chance to get momentum going again. You will know how bad it is when the next relief rally comes and instead of getting the trend going again just falls flat on its face. That’s your real sentiment indicator.
Is silver heading for support at $15.75? Pretty impressive down slide most days straight for quite a while.
https://invst.ly/3x47z
Yep looks like silver will break &16 today, first support at 15.85?
And platinum is not faring much better. At about 4am this morning it made a waterfall decline for a 15 dollar face-plant off the high board right onto bare cement. We will see if it buries itself a little deeper by going under 900 dollars today. And that’s a great reason to have stayed out of platinum stocks while the correction is still a live event.
Good morning,
Amazing how gold is sinking.
Dday, $1178 indeed appears the next target according to the wedge.
It is consistent with the channel theory where gold’s price stays around $1200.
Good trading to all.
Yea I would say if gold breaks that trend line at $1178 convincingly then time to reassess. “amazing how gold is sinking”….. Only last year gold fell from $1300 to around $1120 so looks like a normal correction to me, for now:-)
Next support for gold 1209? Will the miners lead out of a bounce?
And there we go. The 1220 line on gold was just broken as I suspected would happen today while the yen decline accelerated after losing the .88 level and she is intent on going down for the count. Hard to tell right now at what support it might stop so I will avoid any inclination to buy too early.
Sorry to be fussy here’s the minute chart.. $1220 no broken as yet, although i’m sure there is more downside to come…
https://invst.ly/3x4zv
I am using Finviz futures and gold spiked down to 1219.20 just a short while back.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5
I just realized your data is likely 20 minutes delayed.
Wow, slv 18 days of no higher highs!!! Gary’s been warning not to catch any bounce, but along the way, so many said a bounce is coming, miners has diverge etc. What a pain
The S&P is walking alone to new highs. The broader indexes such as the Russel 2000 and the Wilshire 5000 are lagging. Apple, Facebook, Google and Amazon are getting all the upside action while the rest of the market stalls. The advance decline ratio of the past six has been on a downward slope.
The top five heavy weights (that include MSFT). could push the S&P higher yet but at some point, without participation from the broader market, there will be a tipping point and a correction will occur. I think we are close.
The silver chart is just brutal. Absolutely no short covering rallies.
Yeah, anther 10 cents decline and silver will have its chops busted all over the roasting pan as 16 dollars gives way to a 15 handle. This has been quite a decline while DSLV has certainly lived up to the potential it had stored as I kept warning not so long ago. It has now risen 50% since its April bottom. I wish I had hung on longer instead of going to cash so early.
I love people like Don. What SPX the only one that rally. What only 5 big caps leading market. That’s lovely. Doubt doubt doubt. Lovely. By the time wlsh, rut, mid, ndx, Tran, indu all confirms….. My position is already up 50% or 100%.
Also these people need to change their watchlist. Mine is mostly doing fantastic!!! Many mid caps are doing well.
Of course there are the clf, fcx, retails that sucks. So why look at those??? This bull market has long been a bull and bear divide. Lol
Don, have you not noticed that the bears are getting killed, over and over again? Chris is right and long is the smart position to play. I would love to short the SM but I have learned my lesson. The winning strategy has been to buy all dips.
I keep telling you Gold and gold miners are two different animals. GOLD MINERS WILL OUTPERFORM GOLD.
Levels to watch using a Modified Schiff Pitchfork — It’s been pretty accurate with Gold as of late.
Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/RObtjfe9/
Weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/x/d0qNW1x5/
Clueless. What are you talking about? If you keep getting failures at support how is that working for you?
Pedestrian The Annoying Gnome — STFU and go away 😉
There are online resources where you can learn to read a Schiff Fork.
That’s right — You should read up on it.
Ho hum price action. Best option for a while, staying liquid.
I just bought some SQQQ at $32.44. The market looks toppy.
It’s very dangerous to be short during the bubble phase of a bull market
On the weekly, gld sinks below the mid Bollinger band. Full stochs still around 45, takes time to go to 20 level.
Are we close to a mega breakout in Gold?
A brutal gap up move that will caught most of us off guard 🙂 probability still favors a summer low, but we are in the timezone for something spectacular.
Gaps tend to occur to the downside during intermediate declines.
Gold needs one more daily cycle after this one before a final bottom…or this cycle just needs to stretch and stretch until sentiment turns really bearish.
We will soon see, I have a plan!
It would make it much easier if the “stretch” scenario plays out and just puts in the bottom over the next week or so.
Brutal something coming…can feel it
We may have a run up to finish a flat day.
Probably not.
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Surf’s Wrap up May 8, 2017
May 8, 2017; 11:32 pm Surf City
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Gold Intermediate Cycle update
May 8, 2017; 10:49 pm Surf City
Today’s action on the Gold charts (daily and weekly) is starting to make me much more comfortable that we are nearing Gold’s 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low.
First lets look at the weekly charts for Silver and the Miners as they clearly show everything that I am looking for in an Intermediate Low. All have broken my Blue Intermediate Uptrend out of the late 2016 Yearly Cycle Low (YCL). All three have taken out their March TC Low and now have a Failed Trading Cycle. Lastly, the RSI, Slow Sto and MACD are all at levels where we often see an ICL on their weekly charts.
Gold’s daily chart shows a possible stealth 18 day TC Low in early April (see the green arrow in my 1st chart). My normal timing band for TC Lows is 22-29 days so today is either day 40 of Trading Cycle 3 (TC3) or day 22 of TC4, which is starting to look more plausible.
If so, we have an IC uptrend break and a Failed Trading Cycle. The RSI and Slow Sto on the Daily are also at ICL levels. On my last weekly chart, you can see that RSI and the Slow Sto are nearing levels that we saw for Gold at the first Intermediate Low in late May of 2016.
So while Time and Price on Gold’s shorter term Trading Cycle is still a bit cloudy, I am becoming somewhat more comfortable with the price and time on the weekly charts. Stay tuned as I think we are very close.
May be. For the past several days, declining gold prices produced only picayune declines in pm stocks.
There is no such thing as a stealth cycle low.
Cycle Low’s have to create sentiment extremes. That can’t occur on a mild one or two-day decline. Intermediate degree sentiment is still too bullish for gold to be at an intermediate cycle low at this time. As of yesterday it was almost dead neutral at 45% bulls. It needs to get below 30% bulls to complete an ICL.
So many novice cycle analysts keep getting these wrong because they can’t adapt to the fact that cycles evolve. Cycle duration’s that were normal 3-4 years ago are no longer the norm in our modern markets. Almost all cycles are elongating, probably due to interventions by central banks in the currency markets as well as stock markets.
as posted above – surf city believes almost… we r close to intermediate bottom….unlike Gary…
Well, well, well…
Despite a soaring USD/JPY , the DOW is very weak. It is clearly running out of gas. Despite a gold sell off, GDX is barely negative. And guess what the USD/JPY is overbought.
Nothing changed in my mind, GDX made the low last Thursday and is going to 30$ this summer.
Gold still needs to complete at least one failed daily cycle. I think you’re still 3-6 weeks too early.
Failed cycles or whatever is not everyone’s cup of tea. It could be 6 weeks or until the end of the year, who knows? Impact of ag/au decline on pm stocks for several days has been minimal. There could be some kind of bounce before another letdown. Sm is not faring that well either. Just sleepy price movement in a narrow range. No crystal ball here.
At this point I’m watching two things: intermediate degree sentiment and the weekly stochastics.
I want to see sentiment register bearish levels and I want to see the weekly stochastics reach oversold on gold before I try to call a final ICL.
And like I keep saying there will almost certainly be a bounce at some point here and it’s guaranteed to get everyone bullish prematurely. That’s how ICL’s keep everyone holding all the way into the bottom.
Not everyone Gary. Unless one is not paying attention and mistakes a bounce for something else.
You could be right. Who knows? But as of today, gdx 1 hr chart is still in down trending mode. First, it needs to get back into up trending mode. Lot of work to go from here to your target.
Well, the market sold of a little from it’s highs but did my SQQQ go up ? Nope, not a penny. WTF??? I sold it at the close and ended even on the trade, except for commissions. I can’t seem to catch a break.
Just buy APPL like everyone else.
During a bubble the winning formula is to behave irrationally 🙂
Like I keep saying: 10,000 Nasdaq will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.
LOL!! OK Bigdaddy, now I am convinced that these are subtle forms of sarcastic, troll-esque comments. No one can be this bad at trading, even random entries would give some winners.
Kudos, humor well done.
I wish I was just being “sarcastic”. If you scroll back you will see where I announced my buy of SQQQ @32..44. It closed at 32.43 and I got out at my buy price. I am an unlucky guy although I guess losing just the commission is trivial if I ever get a winner and ride the profit train. My day is coming, you’ll see.
Bigdaddy
I’ve asked you a couple of times on this forum what your reason for entry, expectations and targets were when you undertake a trade. Also asked you what criteria you use to enter the trade, how do you pick your moment to hit the BUY button.
You haven’t replied once, up until now. Seems to me that you buy your sticks on random assumptions and times. I know, people want to hear anything but the truth, but I suck at that. I suck at telling people what they want to hear. I’ll tell you this; if you are trying to daytrade or even swing trade, you need to pick better entry times. Also you need to hold through more than one fucking hour, day or week.
That’s what I think.
I think if one is going to try and day trade they better have a completely mechanical system and just follow the entries and exits called for by the system. Day trading buy emotional feel is very unlikely to make any money.
Just for kicks, i checked your entry time near 11:50 Eastern, and I see QQQ intraday MACD combined with 20ema showing a support zone, where it stayed the rest of the day and this was on the 1, 3 and 5 minute charts. SQQQ for the same time frame never gave a buy signal as its MACD & 20ema on 1, 3 & 5 minute charts were pegged near overbought.
You also had two chances to sell at $32.55 where it briefly popped.
I agree with Gary partly, for daytrade you’re not looking at fundamentals, you need to follow short timing events. But you still need to have an expectation and reason to go in. I have seen Bigdaddy bitch and moan about GDX trades in the past so it’s not always a 2x or 3x ETF (which I don’t even touch).
Leaning correction time in the SM. MIDZ compelling:.
Bigdaddy: Selling losing triple leveraged funds at the close probably isn’t a bad idea. If you hold and are on the wrong side of an opening gap, you could lose money in big hurry. That all said, I have held a losing 3x trade and sometimes it has worked out just fine but overall I would have to say it isn’t a winning strategy.
Thanks Don. It makes me feel better to know I am probably doing the right thing. But, what about if I had a winner at the close? Is it best to take the profit and try again at a later time?
The number of declining stocks once again exceeded the advancing stocks and the S&P closed down only .10%. Out of the last 9 trading sessions, only two have had the number of advancing stocks exceed the decliners and yet we had an all time intraday high today. Obviously, fewer stock are getting all the attention.
Bounce in the PMs coming up soon. Will form a nice head and shoulders on gld’s daily chart, with an upwardly sloping neckline. A break of that neckline project down to 109-110, basically Gary’s target.
Only question now is how long and how high can GLD rally. People will be shorting the ever loving crap out of it at every MA. It’s possible it rallies all the way back to the 200 dma before collapsing, but I wouldn;t even bank on it testing the 50 dma. It might even fail to get any farther than the 20 dma.
Actually, ma20>ma200>ma50
Not for long.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p67341209695&a=522887491&listNum=1
Kiss gold and commodities good bye once this breaks out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75301841687&a=522888937&listNum=1
Gary, the trigger for the DCL could be this Come ordeal. Gold looks like it could potentially form a swing low here. Selling looks exhausted
You might be right. I think Mcmaster is going to join Comey soon…..and the neocons might light off a firecracker to scare everyone. Might help gold rally
So a couple things are happening here today worth mention.
My Nikkei indicator is working thus far meaning it has been repulsed very gently near the 20,000 mark and may be ready for a corrective decline. You need to check this chart for yourself and run the channels to appreciate the idea better. What you are looking at is an expanding wedge, better known as a megaphone, that encompassed the period starting in December 2016.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=d1
If I am correct and the Nikkei begins a corrective decline here then we might reasonably expect it to fall all the way back to around 16,500 before bottoming which is in excess of a 15% decline. That is where the pattern projects to at this time.e
Without a doubt this would be a very bullish setup for a bounce in precious metals and miners so stay alert to the fact that a stock market correction will be very favorable for long trades if a market decline even roughly approximates my downside projection.
My secondary indicator (Eurostoxx50) is also flashing a resistance top and could also be setting up to decline. I like this kind of supporting evidence when it corroborates my general idea. What you should notice is that the Eurostoxx support line (monthly chart) identified by the lows of 2003 and 2009 are in perfect parallel with the current peaks of 2007 and 2017 and that means we have reached the primary resistance level.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=m1
The DAX offers a similar support/resistance channel that you will find by checking tops and bottoms for yourself. Get your handy plastic ruler out and just trace out the lines as a quick test of validity.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DY&p=m1
As mentioned before, these patterns are not available on the US indices as there are not prior highs to work with. The assumption here though is that if Japanese and European indices decline so will US markets since most developed nations markets are moving together at this time. I don’t know if my idea is going to be valid and therefore can’t suggest what anyone should do about this other than take note and don’t be surprised if we do get an unexpected market decline.
But the main reason I am leaving this post today is simply to warn you we are here NOW.
If a correction ensues its going to get underway shortly so be on guard. Given that precious metals have been sold down hard recently and may also be at a cycle bottom, a reversal of their fortunes in conjunction with a modest stock market correction makes perfect sense. So a good buying opportunity may be presenting itself this week.
———————————————
A note to all you Tweet readers who bitch constantly about the length of my posts…..
Screw off!
Any pedant should be able to see the metals are over sold and strong hands are accumulating.
Besides it a full moon tonight, there’s a correlation for you.
Sentiment is still too bullish for the YCL to be complete. 44% bulls.
There should be real fear at YCL’s. 30% bulls or lower.
Ped, I am on board and agree. A wake up call to the SM is looking probable. There needs a scare. The VIX is ridiculously low. No fear. There needs to be some. The SM can’t continue up with vix providing no boost. We will see if Gary is correct and we get a PM rally followed by another roll over to go even lower.
Seems to me everyone is expecting that so the fuel is there to launch quick, catch shorts and leave sideline sitters to chase. Could provide a sustained run up here.
I could sure use a boost.
Thanks for the info.
Sentiment is still too bullish for the YCL to be complete. 44% bulls.
There should be real fear at YCL’s. 30% bulls or lower. This is usually accomplished during a failed daily cycle. Traders see a lower low and a lower high. That’s what causes the panic into the bloodbath phase. That’s the point at which we run out of sellers, the YCL forms, and then a new intermediate rally begins.
Looks like Comey could be the DCL trigger. Expecting PM’s to rally at least a few days now. Don’t over stay your welcome, this cycle will be left translated.
The media is reading this Comey firing entirely wrong. Those news people have obviously never known a politician very well and never been in a position to bargain or they are just grasping at straws to rationalize this event as some sort of coverup.
Bullshit!
Let me tell you what REALLY happened (even though I was not there).
Comey was really hated by the Dem’s because he was seen as the key reason Hillary lost. There were very few people in their cross hairs they wanted out of government more. In fact, Mr Comey was enemy number one and Donald knew it which is why he kept him on until now.
But don’t get misty eyed that the Donald has a weak spot or was rooting for the underdog.
Comey was a bargaining chip plain and simple. Trump needed that guy for the right moment to be traded off for something else he needed more. And so when he ran into resistance on an issue (no idea which one) then he offered up Comey’s head to make the deal.
And friends is how you get things done in politics.
I like your “theory”. I vote you as replacement for Comey.
Ok thanks
Yen/$ is indicating an inside bullish reversal. So gold could be ready to make a move higher. The inside day is not valid until the end of the day naturally (daily chart) but becomes meaningful if its still showing at the close. VIX meanwhile is almost right on its timing target for a monthly move. We shall see what happens if the stars line up.
Looks like a DCL in gold…..which might make sense if the S&P is double topping from March at ~2400. It could be a swing high today if it drops below yesterday’s low and then below the 10 DMA. The question is – will oil continue up with gold?
Where are you on this Alex? I’m thinking you’ll say these are temporary bounces before the final YCL.