112 thoughts on “Market wrap

  1. earthkitten

    Gary,

    Looking at the weekly stochastic on gold, it has a looong way to fall
    before its oversold. Miners probably will follow on down. Are you like
    me & anticipating an opportunity bigger than the baby bull in early 2016?
    I’ve got the dry powder ready.

  2. cazabrujas

    Hi Gary. You mention a surprise in the French election as the catalyst that will trigger a mini bloodbath in the stock market, but how would things play out if Macron wins as the market expects? There would be no obvious catalyst for a dramatic downward swing. I guess it could be a “sell the news” event, but if so, the downward move would take longer to complete IMO.

  3. BestOfLuck

    Gary, JNUG just reverse split 4:1.

    So I take it your new JNUG target will be $2000 when gold hit LT top years later?

    1. Gary Post author

      Nothing has changed. I think by the time gold forms its bubble top (maybe in 3-5 years) gold will be at least $5000 and probably closer to $10,000. By that time JNUG will be over $500 split adjusted.

  4. Don

    But Gary, Pedestrian says that gold is still in a bear market. There will be a lot of long faces here, including yours and mine, if he is right.

    1. Christian

      Excellent point Don! Let’s not upset Pedestrian; he’s very sensitive about these things.

      Bear Market it is πŸ™‚

      1. Pedestrian

        The other comment I would like to address to those who are still new to gold is that there is a long tradition in this market for people with either A) no knowledge or B) an agenda in play, to express their gold views with excessive confidence.

        Usually there is no foundation beneath their words.

        Be careful of bland, repetitive statements made by the usual bugs that have little or no substance, lack a technical explanation or cannot properly articulate the mechanics of a trade. Those kinds of people want to convince you of their position by badgering, mocking, insulting and instilling a fear you will miss out by ignoring them.

        Typically they will heap criticism on anyone expressing a view that is not pro-gold.

        It is in the interests of every investor in this arena to make an effort to screen the noise out and try to arrive at the truth. The other day I left a long warning note on the future of silver and there was not a single comment in follow-up offering an alternative scenario with technical reasoning.

        Nothing but heaps of insults and accusations.

        So be careful who you listen too. If nobody can refute an argument that is based on logic or well established technical indicators then odds are good it cannot be refuted at all.

    2. Pedestrian

      There are a lot of long faces here already Don. That’s because we just had a 70 dollar crash in gold. The reason is because THIS IS A BEAR MARKET in precious metals and we knew that for certain when platinum retested its December 2016 lows.

      This recent period was really a pivotal moment for gold as this particular bear is now in its 7th year. I was willing to give it the benefit of the doubt since a failure to breakout now means we will now go through another cycle down to the lower channel line.

      As you know already, gold was unable to make that key psychological breakthrough above its down-trending channel line and for me it was a stunning verdict on the entire complex. For other readers here less familiar with channel-charting, the implications of this recent failure at the key resistance line now warns gold will NOT have another significant chance of beginning a true bull market breakout until it has first seen the next major support either at the lower channel line (about 950) or at golds December 2015 lows (1050).

      This is important. Failures at channel support and resistance lines sends price in the opposite direction. Generally speaking, price will gravitate to the opposing channel line before again reversing. This is easily proved by examining any chart that is tracking along a pair of parallel lines.

      If you look objectively at gold’s monthly chart what you actually are looking at during the 2011 to 2012 period is a very right-translated double top. That is another way of saying that the price at the second peak in 2012 was sharply lower than price at the first peak in 2011.

      Double tops do not need to be equal in price in other words.

      A lot of novice chartists get this wrong and do not understand what they are looking at as a result since most are expecting peaks of approximately the same height. It was for this reason that so many peoples gold miner accounts were wiped out when they got heavily long in 2012 thinking gold had to reach the prior 2011 highs at a minimum.

      It crashed instead and some have never recovered to this day.

      Why this is important to this discussion and the reason I am talking about double-tops is because what we currently have on our hands may represent an analog of the 2011/2012 top. That is to say that this failure of gold at resistance is in the process of creating a second pair of right-translated double tops and if that is correct it is EXTREMELY negative for gold going forward.

      So let me explain how to read the second double-top.

      It is being formed by the pair of peaks in 2016 and 2017 whose “top” is represented by the declining channel line. Its that simple really. Gold is making a double top confined below the upper rail of the falling channel line and there really is no other good way to read it.

      During 2012, the failure of the second peak resulted in a near vertical 600 point drop in the gold price before the first major support was formed near 1200 dollars. This time around we could easily see prices fall all the way through to prior support at 1050 with the potential for gold to drop all the way down to its lower channel line found near the 950 region.

      Those of you who are new to gold need to be aware of the implications of what I am saying since the gold promoters who dominate this site will never tell you in a 100 years what to be forewarned about. But the dynamic that is now in play is that gold will trend down to its next major support level before stopping. The advent of this ongoing decline could do VERY serious damage to anyone holding long positions or who keep listening to the guys on this board who only talk out of the back of their faces with a pro-gold agenda.

      The usual tactic of those guys (who would prefer me to shut up) is to ridicule my posts or make a lot of noise about their length. I advise you not to be distracted by them since it is not possible for me to explain the technical outlook in such a scenario as we have with Tweet-style blog posts.

      I just want to warn you all in very clear and unequivocal terms that gold has now turned extremely bearish by this recent failure and caution should be exercised holding onto long positions beyond their expiry date. Rally’s should still be sold, not held Old Turkey.

      Personally I was hopeful we might see a breakout as that would have signaled a change in my own trading tactics. So I was a little disappointed by golds recent failure but not totally surprised. It has long been my contention gold would see a number sub-1000 region before the bear market was dead and my certainty of this has only been confirmed by the recent price crash.

      I am now looking for gold to meet or exceed the December 2016 low price during this seasonal slow period and into early fall. That means we are most likely heading back to 1130’s. My outlook on metals is very negative at this time and I have no expectation that gold will exceed our April highs during the next bear market rally. I will however be buying along with most others at this current cycle low but I intend to be selling the next peak when it arrives. This upcoming bounce is probably going to be a weak one in any event.

      The overarching trend is still down.
      ——————————————————————–

      Monthly gold chart….note the right-translated double top in 2011/2012….We are seeing a repeat now.
      http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m1

      1. jake

        Pedant, 950 AU? You seriously should consider a new eye glass prescription before you try to draw a channel.

        1. Pedestrian

          Draw the channel yourself.

          My forecast is entirely reasonable given we have already seen gold fail at 1300 dollars. And what will not go up must resolve itself by going down. You may not like that but personal preferences have no place in technical analysis.

          Projecting where the major downside support levels lie is the simplest of the tasks we have to perform and channels are one of the oldest established methods for estimating what the future holds.

          So the personal opinions like yours and those of the agenda driven bugs are worthless for analysis and only lead to confuse other investors. You will have to do better than just claim the channel is wrong when you obviously have not drawn the channel for yourself.

          Had you done so you would not have wasted my time writing a post proving you are clueless on this topic. Knowing exactly how gold will get from here to there is another issue altogether since there will most assuredly be many ups and downs along the way to the eventual final bottom.

          But we are going there if gold cannot break out of its bear market channel and the last week of action suggests the downside is going to be painful. My advice to you is to open your mind to what is obvious on the chart and try to remain as objective as possible.

          I doubt you can do it though. My posts are not written for dullards like you.

      2. Gary Post author

        Not a bear market. Just a normal intermediate cycle decline. The come pretty regularly about ever 20-25 weeks.

        1. Pedestrian

          Sorry Gary. This is absolutely and unconditionally still a bear market by technical standards. You cannot change that by just saying “it is not a bear market”. I can understand your reluctance to agree though since you sell subscriptions based on the hope this is a bull market.

          1. Pedestrian

            Then you will have no problem reversing your belief this is a bull market once we break below the December lows. Maybe you can’t see it right now Gary but all of 2016 and 2017 is nothing more than a gigantic head and shoulders pattern. It is merely a rally period within a very long running bear market and odds strongly favour a continuation of the decline since 2011. All that the 2016 higher-high did was establish that the upper channel (that was already in play) was confirmed as valid. My forecast on golds final bottom has been in force for three years already and so far I have not been disappointed. I fully expect we will eventually see a final low in the 950 to 970 region.

          2. Gary Post author

            Nah, That doesn’t fit with gold’s 8 year cycle.

            The next major low isn’t due until 2024. A 7 month rally is way to short for an 8 year cycle to rally even if it was going to be left translated.

            Nope. This is a new bull market, but one that is stuck in a basing pattern for awhile. The reason is because stocks are starting their bubble phase and there is easy money to be made in that sector. So not a lot of buying pressure for the metals right now. Once the stock bubble pops all that liquidity is going to look for something else to land on. Gold will be a big beneficiary when that happens.

            Gold is doing exactly what I expected it to do. It’s forming a triangle consolidation. Now it’s time to drop to the lower triangle trend line.

      3. bginvestor

        Jesus Christ Ped.. why do u spend so much effort!!?? Most folks here don’t really appreciate what ur saying.. and Gary doesn’t really care either..

        All the time ur providing value to Gary’s blog for free and getting virtually no credit..

        I read ur posts but find that I barely have enough time to read all of ur posts because I focus on my own analysis..

  5. dboz

    Wow! A ray of Hope to brighten my day. Last time Ped gave this sermon we rallied $170 bucks. I think we may have bottomed.

    1. Pedestrian

      You need to learn the difference between a long term forecast and a day trade, Boss.

      1. dboz

        I get it. I watched some Ewave analyst the other day and he sees silver ad 4 bucks also. Around 3-5 years out. So the grind down the triangle could happen. I just have to ask though, if this is going to happen for sure based on the charts and the charts know the future, why aren’t we all mega multimillionaires? Did the chart say we were going straight up to 49 in 2011?

        My charts and lines all showed trends and supports and they all broke down like crap through a goose.

        In my short time here the one thing I have learned is that none of those charts mean crap. It’s all based on sentiment. Period. How else can anyone explain Amazon pushing $1000 per share or Tesla being worth as much as GM? Emotions drive the market. The rest is noise. See Bitcoin at 1600. Defies logic, but people think it’s going somewhere and FOMO fuels the rise.

  6. zkotpen

    Ped,

    Nice to have you back!

    I’m onboard with the bear market idea, though I think it is likely to extend years longer than many expect — well into the 2020s. Reason: Fractals. That 400 week SMA needs to turn down first. Gonna take a long time for that to happen. As in, September, 2011, needs to pass 401 weeks into the rear view mirror before we can even begin to get ready for the next cycle wave down.

    In the meantime, the grinding cycle wave sideways/up proceeds & will eventually fool everybody all around when that bear market trendline finally breaks.

    I did say that primary (yearly) wave C of triangle could be a double zig zag. Well, if we’ve got an intermediate wave A up complete, a double zig zag is looking more and more likely. And the funny part — or vexing part as the case may be — is, it’s difficult to tell if the double zig zag in progress is the final Y wave of the move down from July, 2016, or if it’s the middle X wave simply correcting the first move up off the December, 2016, low. And whether it’s the same move or not in GDX.

    In simpler terms, if the current cycle wave were clearly a trending move, the trend would be so obvious that everybody except the most severely biased bugs or bears would clearly recognize it and act accordingly.

  7. zkotpen

    PS: I thought long and hard about shorting GDX into yesterday’s close. 2 weeks ago, I would have, no doubt.

    But my groggy 2:55 a.m. brain told me any move long or short would be imprudent.

    1. Pedestrian

      You will want to be careful now Zkot. Anytime gold starts to get oversold there can be an expected reversal at anytime and we have already seen a fairly substantial decline across the metals board. Personally I am waiting for an obvious basing pattern that makes sense to me before entering a long trade. But even then I don’t anticipate holding it for very long as the chart has turned quite ugly.

      1. bginvestor

        I’m playing the election gold bounce.. need to be positioned before hand.. if it doesn’t work out, I will be stopped out.

  8. Emptyness

    What a brainless discussion ….
    Every time gold goes down, the gold bears are rising from the dead. Yes, they know it for sure, we are in a bear market, target < 1000 USD, a bear market "well into the 2020s". Oh yes, the us economy is soooo strong and our financial market sooooo healthy. Really brainless.
    And then gold goes up again – and Ped and all the other bears disappear – or change to bulls πŸ™‚

    1. Pedestrian

      Empty commentary. Address the subject. If you are unable to contribute then just admit you don’t know what gold will do.

    2. bginvestor

      U should listen to Ped.. TA and cycle analysis both suggest more down after the bounce..

  9. zkotpen

    Ped,

    Thanks for the word of caution — I think I was hearing it last night despite foggy graveyard shift brain. But I heard it!

    Today, I calculated 38.2% retracements of the moves down from (1) FOMC peak in GDX and (2) pre-FOMC high point in gold. Funny in the pre-market, I saw GDX hit it on the nail: 21.42. And gold is within striking distance of 1237-38.

    We’ve still got an event coming up & 2.4 hours of data to consider — point is, I am not making hasty decisions. How does the saying go? Haste makes risk, or something to that effect πŸ˜‰

    This level of prudence is the result of learning from my mistakes of 2 weeks ago — that’s what motivated me over that weekend: My fractals were good at some degrees, but all messed up at the minute degree — which is the degree I trade (one degree lower than the daily cycle).

    Like looking at the moon thru binoculars: Sure, you can see it bigger than with the naked eye, but if you really want to put skin in the game, if you want to study it, you need the right magnification: You need a telescope. As long as you’re looking thru the wrong lens, you’re still shooting from the hip. So you can say, I’m working my backside off trying to improve my aim!

  10. arcticfox

    Gary, do you ever trade the warrants? Here’s a site which updates new issues every month. If we get the downturn into June/July that you think, there’ll be some great leveraged long term exposure here. I’ve recently done really well with Agb.wt. I mean look at Silvercrest, those warrants are good till Dec, 2020. Like a long term call option. There are a few energy plays as well. Bbi is already in the money and good for another 4 years.

    http://www.financialpost.com/markets/data/group-warrants.html

    1. Pedestrian

      No Joke, I was not calling for that number. The speculation on 1321 was only possible IF the major support line was exceeded. Obviously that didn’t happen so the number cannot be in play. Gold was decisively repulsed at its primary resistance line and when that became obvious with the recent price decline all other considerations became null.

  11. victor

    meanwhile, oil turned direction after hours, see you at 52 with zigzag to 60…
    Thanks Ped, whatever people are saying if many listened to you they would save money. Projection to 950 is logical…., useless metal…, better concentrate on silver, and the best leave PM alone for at least couple of month.,..

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    covered my short-oil trade down from 53.

    planning re-entry short at 48.9 next week with covering at 39.9 in June.

    1. victor

      respect your opinion Alex, I will be careful approaching 49, probably sell this level and see further signs…, even if it pass 49 to 52 it come back to test 49 again where I go long more convinced …

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    because I do not trade minor trends (except rarely and on small risk); only principal and secondary trends, i.e. YC uptrends and YC declines.

  14. matrix

    gold has a 30 yrs. cycle from top to top (1980-2011) with a 20 yrs. cycle from top to bottom and 10 yrs from bottom to top….will have a bottom in 2030/ 31.

    1. Gary Post author

      I never bought into these really long cycles. I think for a cycle to be valid the market needs to consist of basically the same traders that were around during the last cycle so that people remember what happened.

      On the other hand I could see a long term debt cycle repeating because after a generation or two has gone by the world forgets what caused the last panic and then repeats the same mistake again.

  15. jake

    Pedant, and weren’t you also the pedant that called a bounce in silver this week.

    Pedestrian
    April 28, 2017 at 9:42 am
    Silver should find support today by my way of reading it and be ready to bounce next week. SLV is coming right up on a decent support line as is USLV and the silver chart. You need to go to the daily chart level to get a proper sense of whats coming though.

  16. Don

    Pedestrian’s long term analysis of the charts may be correct. I remember well, back in the 80s and 90s, the many exciting and convincing rallies for gold that sucked in many a trader (myself included) who looked back on gold’s dramatic rise to 800 plus dollars and were convinced that the bull had re-awakened. It turned out to be a very long and dragged out bear market that lasted for 20 some years. There was no shortage of analysts that could draw lines on charts that could validate their bullish arguments for new highs for gold. In the end, they were all wrong.
    I have learned over the years that charts studies (including Elliot wave) work great for analysis until they don’t. Resistance and support lines will eventually be broken so that new lines can be drawn for the techies to play with. The same holds true for patterns. I have seen head and shoulder patterns resolve exactly as expected and then others that defied the ‘logic’ of the technical analysts and did the complete opposite of what ‘should’ have happened. So, will Ped be correct? Perhaps, but his analysis is very much dependent on the repeatability of established patterns and I as I said before, chart studies always work well , until they don’t.
    I choose to believe that Ped will be proven wrong although it will probably take a few years for a bullish outcome to play out (and Ped will be long gone from this blogsite) . The macro picture is, in my opinion, very favorable for gold. Our Ponzi like monetary system is no longer functioning in as it once did. The central banks are abusing their right to create money and eventually, there will be consequences. The insane and unjustifiable elevation of the world’s major stock markets are not a sign that the system is working as it should but rather, just the opposite. In my opinion, Gold will be a big beneficiary when the inevitable reset occurs.

    1. JJHarmen

      I am not old enough to remember the eighties very well and certainly not what gold was doing but when I now look at gold’s chart, I can see what Don and Pedestrian are talking about. There were some very nice and lengthy rallies! However, I do remember gold’s run from 2001-2011 and how many experts trotted out calling for a premature top after top, based on their technical chart reading skills and gold continued to soar.
      It seems to me that all that really matter these days, is sentiment. Too many bulls, gold goes down, too many bears, up it goes.

      1. Pedestrian

        You would have loved being in gold in the late 70’s until the bubble burst, JJ. It was truly phenomenal and everyone was involved. Ask any cabbie in those days and he seemed to know the price of daily gold off the tip of his tongue. It was actually news people paid attention too but then inflation was getting pretty hot.

        There were lineups around blocks to get coins and bars and occasional actual buying panics. We never saw that in the last bubble which was very tame by comparison. It was a great time for me though. I had already been in the PM market for a dozen years before the top in 81 and was loaded to brimming since I had been buying seriously all the way back when silver was still circulating as currency.

        You could almost say I am one of the original gold bugs having bought in on the ground floor when pretty much nobody cared a whit about gold or silver and there was not special aura about it yet. Hell, the term gold-bug had not even been coined back then.

        We were just a bunch of guys who were right about the future but nobody cared what the hell we said. By the time the bubble was at full steam though I had my collection vaulted because too many people knew what was in the house and it became a serious security risk. Before that we used to just keep the stuff in a few boxes under the bed!

        Times have sure changed.

        1. Don

          ped: late 70’s ? So, you have been trading for nearly forty years then? I guess you must be around my age of 64.

          1. Pedestrian

            Pretty close Don. I didn’t come by my miserable impatient, nature because I’m still 23 and dressed in short pants! I’ve been analyzing gold since before a lot of people here were born. This has been a life long thing for me. In the beginning I was fanatical about the stuff but thank God those days are long gone. Now its just a hobby. I picked up a lot over the years by staring at charts and my forecasting record has steadily improved. Much better than most others but I am sure as hell not perfect. We shall see if I am correct about where the bottom really lies. Not that anyone will care a year or two out. Even if you say you got it right everyone still piles on with all your missed calls so its pointless to mention and nobody gives awards for correct forecasts anyway!

    2. Pedestrian

      Thank you Don and no I am not leaving. As long as I am breathing and still on a keyboard I expect I will be around somewhere.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Victor, yes, I am short Nasdaq100 @ 5609 and with SM about to start its YC decline, crude oil cannot have reached its YCL today; it would be toooo early.
    Besides, its retracement of the YC advance from 26 to 56 has been too small.

    With SM about to enter [unless already in] YC decline, CRB index’ and crude oil’s dead cat bounce should be tepid –> hence trading this minor trend is highly risky.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …also COTTON is also very early in its YC decline (I am short it for 1 week w/ an average price of 78.24, pretty much where it is now) but about to produce a failed IC soon when it gets to 73 –> thus we see there still are risk-on commodities (eg, cotton) and assets (stock market) that still need time to grind their YC declines, so that crude oil still has room to go lower after it completes the ongoing dead-cat bounce along w/ CRB index.

  18. jacob2

    Possibly the only one who trades like this. Bought PLG and CRR both double bottoms in bombed out oil service and platinum. So far so good but view them as trades for a counter trend rally. Nothing goes down in a straight line. Perhaps only half way trough a bear in commodities and there beauty queen gold.

  19. Ed

    Who was that gold and miners will act like they are not even related? That was me. Why ? I won’t tell you. I saw Peddler and Gary were trash talking yesterday about me. But why do I care. Because I am right. I am not gamblers like you.

  20. Don

    Today, of the five big heavy weights, it is Apple’s turn to prop up the market. The other four are down.

  21. JJHarmen

    The stock market is so close to it’s all time high that I cannot believe it will not punch through it soon. I am glad I am not short.

    1. Pedestrian

      What is interesting about you Christian is that you deduct from every conversation while most other people here try to add a thought or an idea. People just like yourself have a name in our society. They are called parasites and users who take but never contribute. Like welfare bums and Eaters.

      1. Christian

        You’re absolutely right.. People here [myself included] add a thought or an idea, they don’t ramble on and on like a pompous jackass, which you clearly are my good man πŸ™‚

  22. Don

    JJ: If the S&P fails today. I would think that a correction is on it’s way. Take note of the Wilshire 4500 which is an index of all stocks that are NOT in the S&P, and see that it is a long way from making a new high. If it were to make be be a new high, that would be quite bullish.

  23. Ed

    Anytime you play with leverage stuffs you become tool of bank cartels. You are best friends of Gold price manipulators. Unwittingly of course but you are the gamblers and bank cartels are the houses.

  24. Bigdaddy

    Well, what can I lose money on today? I sold all my oil stocks yesterday and oil is making a big move today. Typical.shit. my timing is terrible. If you guys want the to make easy money, do the exact opposite of what I do. Forget the fancy chart work. Not needed. Just watch me.

    1. Gary Post author

      The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result. I’m going to say that as long as you continue to day trade and short term trade you will probably continue to lose money.

      Or you could take my advice and just start buying some energy stocks and hang on to them for 3-4 months. That’s where the next big money maker is going to be. Although I don’t necessarily think we have the final bottom just yet. It doesn’t matter though, you don’t have to catch the exact bottom. You just need to get close. I think we are close.

  25. JJHarmen

    LOL! Bigdaddy, I feel for you. It’s no fun being a chronic loser. But maybe I will take you up on your offer and use you as a contrary indicator. Sorry man, I hope luck changes.

  26. Don

    bigdaddy: You have no patience what so ever. I hope you are not relying on your money as a retirement fund. Did you sell BKX also?

  27. Bigdaddy

    Yep. Gone. I broke even, except for a little bit of commission. For me, that is a win. But, I will look at it again at a lower price.

    1. HomerJ

      What criteria and outlook are you using to enter your trades? Do you have a specific catalyst, reason or objective? Or do you just buy on a whim and sell in a panic?

  28. bluelagoon

    Alex – nice call on shorting oil and smart to play the yearly cycles. Could you offer some advice on where I can learn more about cycles and how to count them?

  29. Don

    Palladium and platinum look as if they may have made a solid bottom yesterday. Silver looks less convincing. Did gold make a bottom a short while ago? The miners seem to think so.

    1. RTTPD

      James Dines says we will see a nice correction to the upside very soon in Platinum/Palladium

    2. dboz

      The miners tanked before gold, they may go up several weeks before gold completely drops.

      Gary says this will be a dead cat bounce before the real pain so I am not getting too excited about this one day leading into the French elections. If Le Pen pulls out a miracle I would expect a rather good day come Monday as the market has 100% priced in Macron as a done deal. We know how those can end up.

  30. nautique99

    If yesterday’s low hold next Monday, I’m calling GDX 30$ by mid July-August.

  31. dboz

    PED, did you pull the trigger on PLG yesterday? I know you were looking at it. It was very cheap. If I had any powder I would have tried a position.

  32. dboz

    The bear/bull blender chop continues.

    Silver may pull out a green day…..barely. I agree with Don, nothing says more downside is over.

  33. matrix

    USO seems to be in wave 4….a 5th wave down wouls coincide with crude diving eventually. will short at 10 sma.

      1. cazabrujas

        Uh, you know USO and Crude are the same thing, right? except that USO only trade during US market hours. So any technical analysis should be done on Crude, not on USO.

  34. Don

    For those of you who think I am wasting my time by focusing on the distortion to the S&P by the top five heavy weights, here is a article, published today, that puts it in perspective. The truth is that 495 stocks have moved the S&P very little in the last five years while only five stocks have been responsible for the S&P’s outstanding performance. The author notes, as I have, that Amazon and Facebook produce almost nothing (as does Google). It’s worth reading. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4069736-s-and-p-495-s-and-p-500

  35. Alexandru Popovici

    BLUELAGOON:

    On cycles alone, see:
    1) Gary’s reports
    2) likesmoney’s reports at https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/

    Then add COT reports (Larry Wiliam’s book “Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report”)

    The most important of all: chapter 6 of Van Tharp’s book “Trade your way to financial freedom” – IT CATERS THE QUINTECENCE OF PLAYING PROBABILISTIC GAMES WITH POSITIVE EXPECTANCIES (TRADING BEING ONE OF THEM).

    Then intermarket analysis is paramount – standalone analysis of assets is useless from my point of view.

    risk management + cycles + intermarket analysis + COT reports are the ingredients of my macro-trading strategy.

    i also have a strategy for trading stocks alone –> Mark Minervini’s & Stan Weinstein’s books are fundamental here but RISK MANAGEMENT lies at the core of everything (chapter 6 of Van Tharp!!!).

    Good luck, Blue!

    1. bginvestor

      I have found very little subject matter on cycle analysis process on the web..

      Best way is to find a mentor..

  36. MagnuM

    Glad you’re back Ped! I mostly lurk, but I always make time for what you have to say. I ignored people like you at my own peril in 2012, 2013, 2014, etc when it came to silver, because they were charting stuff that I didn’t want to see and saying stuff that I didn’t want to hear. Alternative, contrarian viewpoints should always be welcomed!

    1. ARends

      Gary,
      Just wanted thanks again for all your effort. You give a great board for diverging opinions. Your outlook and trade will surely give any trader a better POV to trade for a better profit ratio and any fool that that does realise nothing is 100 % fool proof or have mistakes or want to blame others for their loss in following has a lot to learn in life, especially those that try to put you down elsewhere. People who want to blame other for their losses in any way possibly go through life blaming others for every outcome in their lives and can’t take responsibility for their own decisions even by paying to follow you.

      Ped , Glad you back

      I just wanted to say many people fail to realise everything in life has an opposing view or opinion. Sure dont know how your critics survive marriage ..hahaha.

      My other point I would like to make is that you add much value and others should realise. that only the wise is teachable. You give a good POV to make us think, but no one has to agree while other has the opportunity to consider the argument with their own insight to make a decision with when to manage risk better. No puts them out there to make the argument but just put you down. Getting your experience or contrarian view but just to criticise would surely be better off as an ostrich keeping his head in the ground or arse.

      Some you win and some you lose….that’s for all. Otherwise, all investors or fund manager would be rich. How many are in this world that are success full (why Gary know the contrarian view work). I saw some statistics a while back that of 2700 funds over past 3 years only like 10% were doing better than SPX. Well, that said a lot!!!!

      A statement made previously that technicals does not predict the future but does help with the indication to be aware that many events or actions do repeat, like resistances that wait to be broken and then might not. Your POV of a low Gold looking at your bottom resistance price to top trend line has does not really stack up, while has merit while not broken and but your resistance key price to the bottom then to the top trend does not really add for me. If the top trend line is key then the trend at bottom should also have same merit, not just the resistance for your bottom price. I think Gary, triangle seems as a good argument.

      Cycles, waves, world events and sentiment, with technical analysis for me seems to all play its role in different time frames which each one taking over from the other in those time frames and stages that is ruled by the sentiment that is the key for price movement and many instruments( Fib, secondary psychology) (considering that in the POV). I think that precisely why PM is so erratic. The key driver is sentiment due to the diverse role of gold and the fact it covers more roles we consider than other commodities but in a league of its own (value, financial, monetary, security, greed) in the world than any other commodity and then, therefore, leads all other metals as a driver. So to make the key driver as instrument makes sense and the rest secondary makes sense for swing trading which your POV correct in. Play what you see but for the right time frame and not what you believe.

      1. Pedestrian

        Well thanks ARends. I am not sure how valuable an alternative opinion is around here though. There have been just a half dozen posts left in the last 36 hours and that kind of result reads like a survey of sorts as it tells us something about sentiments on this gold site. It certainly suggests that the majority here were long metals and have been getting smashed as their reward for their devotion and loyalty to their golden idol.

        No big surprise I suppose. After a steady erosion of precious metals prices for two weeks running and the potential for a continuation of the fall after a brief bounce, most here are not interested in reading or hearing anything about metals anymore, let alone leaving posts.

        NUGT and JNUG have been beaten down 40 and 50% respectively since middle April and in the process knocked the piss out of the gold bulls who likely held on the whole time and can only pray for a bounce and a chance at redemption when the week opens.

        Conveniently its the same guys who have been heaping scorn on the warnings I had been leaving for months since those guys always know better until they get their arse handed them on a silver platter. But let this be a reminder that during a bear market the preferred way to trade it is strictly with short term bets while avoiding the impulse to hold any long term bullish positions in miners or metals.

        Yeah, yeah, I know. Almost nobody here believes this is still a bear market but the facts are clearly proving them wrong so we won’t bother rehashing what is wrong with the logic of those bugs that prevents them from seeing what is obvious.

        And lecturing does not help either. People just need to figure this out on their own and avoid taking sides on the debate so that the next time we encounter a slump period like this they will be ready. And it would help others if they took seasonality into account since that would lower their risk of loss when the spring/summer period arrives.

        Someone here (Dboz I think) asked me f I had bought PLG as it looks like a great bet from a long term chart since it is making a huge double bottom spanning 16 months. The answer is no, I am not buying anything right now. Let me explain why.
        http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PLG&ty=c&ta=0&p=w

        If you look at that PLG chart as an example you can see that it took an entire month to form its base before it took off during February of 2016…..similar to now, it had fallen for three months in a row before spending the fourth month carving out a bottom.

        So I don’t want to do anything more than keep an eye on it right now. After a multi-month decline the odds are not great its going to bounce to the heavens during the slow season in metals. Its not going anywhere fast in other words. Secondly it has still not hit the 1.00 low and there is always the possibility it could fall further.

        For now its just better to be patient and wait to see what happens. My metals account is all in cash and will likely stay there for much of the summer. Call it hibernation. I have better things to do than fight the tape at this time of year when gardening is far preferable. I doubt I will miss much. Like last year I might just turn off the computer until September when the action starts again and save myself a lot of wasted energy between now and then.

  37. Robert

    Man no break yet for gold or silver only miners. Gary this damn daily cycle is so extended

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s not extended at all. The new normal has been 35-50 days. Gold is on day 40.

  38. Don

    A push by Apple in the last few minutes failed to put the S&P at new highs. I guess we will have to wait until Monday to see how the market reacts to the French election. Political events have been cause for furious rallies. Remember how a Trump victory was supposed to very bad for the markets? NOT! Will this time be any different if Le Pen wins?

      1. Don

        Driver: Check back to March 1. the SPY intraday high was 240.32 vs 239.72 today. That it come so close but did not quite make it is no accident.

  39. Gary Post author

    Assuming a Macron victory I’ve got an idea how I think this plays out next week. I’m putting together the weekend report now and it will be ready tomorrow.

  40. dboz

    If it’s anything like the last 3-4 big market moving issues, they don’t last for more than a few hours. Each EVENT takes less and less time to rebound to the norm. The markets are now the calmest they have been in 75 years, what could possibly go wrong?

  41. cazabrujas

    Hey Gary. Quick question. Do you provide sentiment updates on gold and oil to your subscribers? Thanks.

    1. TraderPete

      The sky’s Summer Triangle-Vega, Deneb, and Altair clear the horizon by midnight tonight (May 5, Friday). Also, on May 6, Saturday, the meteor shower-Eta Aquarid, derived from comet 1P/Halley, puts on a show. 😎

  42. Steffmeister

    Howdy folks,

    We are so modern today, with advanced technology, HFT computers etc. and still you see a beautiful SOLAR CYCLE in Gold for the last few years, it’s a Golden Solar Clockwork, just look at Gary’s latest movie here:
    https://youtu.be/oHlsELFTops?t=515

    It has served me very well looking at this ancient cycle.

    Winter Solstice 2015 = LOW

    Summer Solstice 2016 = LOW

    Winter Solstice 2016 = LOW

    It’s not possible to predict the future, but I’m going to do just that and here it comes:

    SUMMER SOLSTICE 2017 = A LOW IN GOLD πŸ™‚ give or take a week here and there, these cycles is not exact to the day, the latest cycle was 2days early …winter solstice 2016.

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