1. zkotpen

      Conviction is irrelevant — the market just doesn’t care about whether this or that individual makes logical sense or not!

  1. zkotpen

    Gary and Pedestrian,

    (from previous thread)

    I’m gonna have to thank both of you guys again, this time thanks for the insistence on those trendlines which are fated to be broken.

    You think you’re arguing, but you’re not even arguing. Being an Economist (on the one hand… on the other hand…), I play out BOTH of your “arguments” SIMULTANEOUSLY in my mind, but in the ABSENCE of attack and defend strategies, which are interpersonal and largely ignored by the market.
    (Hint: The power of paradox!… close kin to intuition.)

    SUPERCYCLE degree bear market: 2011 until sometime in the mid-2020s. BEAR market still in progress.

    CYCLE degree bear market: 2011-2015. Past bear market, one degree smaller than the above.
    CYCLE degree rally: 2015 until around 2019 or 2020. RALLY still in progress. Likely triangle or some sort of flat correction (multi-year consolidation).
    CYCLE degree final bear: 2019/20 until sometime in the mid-2020s. Future bear market, within an even larger bear market — scary — think 2013!

    At any rate, you’ve caused me to re-evaluate my settings for analysis at the cycle degree of trend, such that all key inflection points make mathematical sense: April & June, 2013; March, July, and December, 2015; July, 2016.

    Of course, in that context the December, 2016, low does NOT make sense. That’s because it’s one degree lower. The PRIMARY (Yearly) move down since July, 2016 appears as an INCOMPLETE double zig zag.

    PRIMARY wave B target using new settings: Around 1075-80, for now, though I don’t see it changing too much in the coming months.

  2. zkotpen


    around 3:48:

    “… a yearly cycle low of larger degree.”

    Yes, yes,… my point exactly: A yearly cycle low of ONE larger degree…

    … NOT TWO!!

    Don’t you think it’s prudent to at least consider that the bear market continues TWO degrees higher, so while all the rules appear to get broken, and they will (next low could very well be lower than 2016 AND that downward sloping trendline is prime target for breaking) — the rally “of larger degree [than yearly]” will give way to more bearish tendencies at still larger degree?

  3. jskauai

    Gary, thank you for your thoughts. I agree that gold’s bottom is in as the of 2015 low. I know you believe that “bankers” try to control markets. You are probably correct in that. So with that thought then would it be smart for them to drive metal prices down to a point where the miners in general can not make a profit? So then all in sustaining costs become a critical price level for supply to continue. Gold and silver downside is a function of the average of all in sustaining costs of the major producers! These price levels are there now and driving them lower will only cause less production.

  4. zkotpen


    You were wondering whether the market thinks about what happened 200 weeks ago…

    It is keenly aware of it, at some degree or other. The gold market is very aware of the fact that the CPI was at 100 in the early 1980s and now its around 250, at some degree or other. It is also aware that the CPI was around 10 in 1913. It is also aware of the value of the 5 golden guineas Ben Franklin, pictured on the $100 note, gave to charity in mid-18th century British Philadelphia. It is also aware that a plot of farm land in Tibet was sold for 7 ounces of gold in the 12th century. It is aware of the entire history of the value of gold, all over the world.

    All past, present, and future enter one time frame;
    one time frame enters all past, present, and future.

    1. Pedestrian

      Zkot, I was not wondering at all.

      My post was pointing out how the moving averages are calculated. So what happened 200 weeks ago plus what the weekly close of 199 weeks ago plus that of 198 weeks ago are all embodied in the current MA price line. Moving averages cannot be forward looking when they are factually based on past activity. That is why golden crosses and death crosses are such useless tools for reading charts. They do however come in handy for creating support and resistance lines but even that is only because of the weight accorded them by so many investors and how the algo’s get programmed. You should never use them for forecasting though.

  5. zkotpen


    Your near term stuff is very insightful, like your calls on the current intermediate cycle top and the plan going forward in the coming weeks and months.

    Longer term, however, you start to confuse cycle and supercycle degrees and kinda sorta lump them into one “8 year cycle”. From that point, your discussion becomes almost entirely polemical.

    It’s so easy to combine cycle and supercycle degrees into one — indeed, the one piece missing from my own puzzle, was ironing out some inconsistencies in cycle degree analysis. I’m quite happy with my yearly and supercycle settings. I was just confused by that “cycle” degree in between them. Come to think of it, all of the “intermediate” degrees were really throwing me off until 3 Sundays ago… I’ve done the work, made the changes, now I’m tweaking and adjusting…

    But yeah, one more 8 year cycle low some time in the 2020s — count on it!*

    *No polemic, just math & science.

  6. KHT

    For Ped-Here is the updated chart with the lower trend line drawn. I was originally curious to see what the top line would show and just drew parallel lines to form a channel, however, the lower line drawn the way you suggested does make a strong point. Whether one agrees or not with this chart which has five points on the top line and four on the bottom, the trend is down until the top resistance line is broken. That is a fact.


    1. Pedestrian

      Yes it is KHT, the trend is unconditionally down until further notice.
      Thanks again for creating the chart to help us out today.

      What we are looking at with your redraw is a classic falling wedge pattern. It is a VERY easy chart to read and makes the outcome for gold and the mining sector quite predictable even if we cannot precisely time the coming breakout using that pattern.

      Take a look at this article with charts I have linked below and you will see the beautiful similarity of the gold bear market chart and the classic falling wedge pattern. I think this is conclusive and ends the debate on the topic but of course the fanatics and zealots in the room can never be persuaded no matter what evidence is provided.

      Falling Wedge Pattern (reversal). Lets not complicate this people!!! Gold is EASY to read if you stay objective.

      When viewed this way we do not need to make many assumptions about the future, where cycles should start or end or how it relates to the CRB Index. This chart is what it is. We will just have to let the bear play out until the chart finds its bottom and then plan for the bounce that inevitably will come.

      We have NOT had the bull market breakout or bounce yet though!….. Not a damned chance in a hundred.

      We have ONLY seen a bear market rally in 2016 that was repelled perfectly at its channel resistance. And then to seal the case, gold was again repelled at resistance in 2017 for confirmation. There is no longer any doubt about the pattern in play here and we should now anticipate that price will fall back to its lower channel line.

      And yes, that is really bad news if you are a bull but I don’t make the rules so this is not just my opinion you are hearing. The chart set-up is damning. It is without question extremely bearish right now. So we should not fool ourselves into believing any nonsense about this being a bull market unless we are prepared to accept considerable losses playing this thing as something it is not.

      If you go Old Turkey on this bear you are going to be roasted, basted and fried black before its all over.

      You could even go broke, so be very careful who you listen too.

      I keep telling the crowd here that the correct way to play this kind of market is to sell on strength and sell every rally. You NEVER hold anything too long during a decline but rather play the support and resistance lines strategically to benefit from the predictable rise and fall of prices within the declining pattern. You don’t need to be a genius to do it either.

      It is not a complex strategy and it is not difficult to execute if you are careful.

      For example, I am 100% out of the metals market at this time since I am not sure how low prices will fall before bottoming. But I am prepared to re-enter in force as soon as I can determine a solid entry and then play the next bounce for all its worth. What I am NOT DOING is trying to buy miners just because they look cheap.

      Things that are down can always fall lower during a bear and it is a rare person who is able to know where those bottoms lie as they are part of the future unknown. My advice (especially to the novices in the room for whom I am really writing) is to take care heeding what the bull crowd keeps repeating and to just concentrate on the simple obvious truth of the pattern you are looking at.

      And don’t ever be sucked into complicated ideas of why gold should do this or the other thing because those rationalizations will only lead to losses. If you see an easy trade pattern in development then just work with it instead of fighting the trend.

      This multi-year bear market in gold offers us an easy path to superb milk-fattened profits if we just allow ourselves to understand the dynamics that are in play and to be patient and plan accordingly. Now is the time to raise cash by strategically investing for short term gains so that when the real bull begins we are well fortified to invest heavily at the real bottom.

      And be sure to set aside the ideas that gold MUST have hit bottom already because of an 8 year or a 7 year cycle. For anyone not paying attention, we are in the midst of an unprecedented stock market bull that is destined to be the longest in the history of the stock market.

      By definition that means the gold bear market is going to be stretched for as long as it takes the equity bull to bubble and perk and blow its top. I don’t know when the DOW will finally have its Waterloo and neither does anyone else but what I do know is that metals cannot perform well as long as it persists. You younger gold investors need to hear this alternate viewpoint so at least you can make an informed decision about your trades.

      The gold chart says prices are going to fall lower…………… A LOT LOWER.
      The chart of the falling wedge pattern under discussion leaves very little room for doubt.
      So if you don’t know what you are doing I advise you to just stay the hell out of this market until it hits bottom.

  7. Americano

    Woo-Hoo !
    Gary mentioned Bitcoin! Expect a big dump post $2K to be quickly bought then it stays in the 2s.
    $5K possible for EOY.
    But that’s not the point. The POINT is to hold till 2020 – next halvening where daily Bitcoin production drops to “half” of what it is today. Thats how Bitcoin rolls. The opposite of US Dollar & all fiat currencies &…the opposite of gold too as you can always find another mine.
    Bitcoin market cap is $28B
    Gold market cap $7 trillion…..think-about-it……don’t need much to move over to Bitcoin (16.5 million current only 21 million can be made) to cruise it to $15K. Gonna happen.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would say bitcoin is starting to show the classic symptoms of a bubble. Price is stretching far above the 200 DMA, the public is starting to come into the market in mass, and price has rallied more than 100% in a year or less.

      Gold requires an actual commodity be mined. Global currencies are backed by the power of the country to tax. Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme backed by nothing more than it’s buyers willingness to buy into the fantasy.

      But yes I’d say we have at least another 6 months before the parabola comes crashing down.

      1. dboz

        Bitcoin has gained 100% in the past month alone.

        It should show people that if/when any serious money ever does decide to come to the PM sector, that the 5000 dollar calls aren’t too far fetched.

        1. zbigkid

          Bitcoin is going to flame out faster than a cheap $20 tent with gasoline poured on it, and a bic lighter igniting the tent.

          The problem with it, is that a) it can easily be shut down by any government, b) can be cracked – every code ever written on a computer can be cracked – don’t kid yourself, and c) it won’t ever be recognized as a substitute for money because the amount it would have to grow requires more energy and computing power than exists on the planet today, or will ever exist on the planet. if you don’t believe me, just go find out how much computing power it takes to ‘mine’ the shit, and then divide that into what it has taken to get to $28 billion. The computing power by the way, becomes an exponential function for every transaction that ever gets conducted, because of how its constructed. People are going to lose at least the $28 billion and likely a lot more when recognition finally hits what a farce it is. The people who created it, pulled a real stinky joke on society.

          1. zbigkid

            PS. Bit coin’s now parabolic rise is TOTALLY a function of the scarcity of computing power, and the exponential time function that cannot keep up due to how Block chain is constructed. Its such a poor substitute for currency, or any medium of exchange precisely because of how its constructed, and the limitations of connectivity combined with the dispersion of the computation sources. I laugh every day this rises and the acceleration of the rise, because people are going to wake up in horror when the computing power, time functions, and constraints cause it to literally implode. Its the equivalent of all the fairy fart points you get on Verizon that can’t ever be redeemed, because they grow and grow and grow but barely count to anything but a few percent of any purchase. The more bitcoin’s price goes up, the more worthless it actually becomes. Its even worse than Vegas, because participants become so hooked, and cannot discipline themselves to get out of it, and try to convert it to some tangible cash or asset, then just completely stay away.

      2. espresso

        And even if Bitcoin “mining” halts, there are already other emerging crypto currencies. Seriously, there is an infinite number of them possible. Not with gold, however.

    2. RTTPD

      Im with Hugo Salinas Price on bitcoin : I don’t care how much it rises or how much other investors profit – Im not interested.

  8. Gary Post author

    I’m still not sure if gold is starting the rally out of its DCL, but if it is then this will be the rally that draws everyone back in prematurely. We’ll start to hear calls that folks are going to miss the train. That’s about the time price gets short term overbought and the next leg down begins.

    Gold needs to have at least one failed daily cycle. Even during the baby bull the May ICL still produced a failed daily cycle. Gold hasn’t delivered that failed daily cycle yet.

  9. dboz

    The only issue I see with the context is I don’t see this huge up and down movement anywhere during the last bull run. I don’t see 80-90% drawdowns after every up move. That’s the part the gives Peds analysis some credibility.

    We sit here struggling at 1223 after the bear supposedly ended at 1050. 175 up in gold in 18 months with calls to retrace that back even further does not sound that bullish to expect any sort of 200+ run up even from current prices to be able to exceed 1380 from last year.

    Of course we now need less than that to break the trend line since the time factor has made it much lower now.

    Still holding but Ped and Zkot are making me very nervous. I can stomach one more drop, but if the move after that does not dazzle me, I will have to rethink the long term outlook as it may very well still be a bear. Playing for a bull but growing more skeptical weekly.

    1. jake

      There are a at least two agnostics here that will miss the train, probably have never been on the right side of a trade.

    2. Gary Post author

      Gold is in a basing pattern while stocks continue their bubble phase.

      It makes perfect sense. As long as there is free money in stocks there isn’t going to be a lot of motivation to wrestle with the metals market. But notice that gold has gone a year and a half and still hasn’t dropped below the 2015 low. Smart money is starting to accumulate in preparation for when the stock bubble does pop.

      So gold has almost no chance of dropping back below the 2015 bear market bottom, but it’s also going to be stuck in a basing pattern a while longer. But bitcoin is already warning of what is coming. It’s just the first alternative currency to start a bubble. Gold will eventually follow.

  10. Dday

    Dollar putting an end to the party maybe.. Possible DCL but will gold make it to $1240 if the dollar continues..

    1. Gary Post author

      I noted in one of my recent videos that the dollar may have completed a daily, and possibly an intermediate cycle low. That could pressure gold’s rally out of its DCL, and it may stretch the daily cycle out to 50 days or longer, and require a deeper sentiment extreme before gold can generate its next DCL.

      My guess is the dollar will probably rally into the June FOMC meeting and maybe top on the next rate hike.

    1. Gary Post author

      The yen is getting pretty stretched below the 10 DMA and may have to go sideways, but it’s come this far it looks like it’s probably going to test the March low. That could mean a test of the March low in gold as well before the DCL is complete.

  11. zkotpen


    Don’t be nervous — just adapt your strategy.

    We are discovering, though nobody wants to face up to the matter, the reality that the different degrees of intermediary cycles are downright perplexing. No two ways about it.

    The basic and natural unit of time on Earth and in markets is One Day. In science, you need to state your basic unit of measure, and anchor your entire measurement system on it, both multiples and divisions radiate from that base. It must be clear.

    From there, we have the daily cycle; the yearly cycle; and the 8-year cycle in multiples. And dividing we get the minuet wave.

    But what about all 3 of the intermediary degrees in between them?

    Especially when they are corrective in nature???

    Hint: Just lump them together or ignore them — at your extreme peril!!!

    They are not as obvious to point out on the chart — they are shifty and confusing…

    I will, however, point out one thing on strategy:

    If the long term and very long term outlooks are full of uncertainty, but you have a general idea of the yearly outlook, a better idea of the intermediate cycle, and a pretty clear or even very clear idea about the daily cycle, which time frame makes the most sense to be concentrating your efforts on, with the highest probability of profit and lowest probability of loss?

  12. dboz

    Good if you are a trader. Not so good if you went long last fall etc and are still in the red. I guess at some point I may have to capitulate. Still expecting some form of bounce here for a while to reassess and possibly at least let me lighten my load of longs. I have pretty much gone apathetic after seeing move after move turn against me for the past 9 months.

    Bought in Sept at the right time, nope, bought in Oct. again, nope, bought in Dec., that worked out for about 5-6 weeks. That’s been it. Rearranged along the way, sold a few things and re-bought lower for better leverage. Probably should have done it again when Gary said but I am running with 4 accounts now and re-juggling so many positions is time consuming and expensive. So for now, just running with what I have.

    1. dboz

      Oh, BTW with 2 of my accounts I went long in late 2015 so those 2 are still way green which does help balance my loser positions.

  13. nautique99

    This sell off is just the start. The DOW is going to erase almost everything since the election. We are going down to December levels. And it will go down fast. Buckle up , good luck to all 😉

    1. Gary Post author

      Just a drop into a DCL. It’s way too late in the daily cycle for stocks to make it all the way back to the December levels.

      As a matter of fact it looks like things are lining up pretty well. Stocks are dropping into a DCL and gold is bouncing out of a DCL. Both moves should be short lived. Once stocks complete the DCL then we’re going to get a powerful breakout on the SPX.

      Stocks are on day 32. So the correction shouldn’t last more then 5-8 days.

  14. HomerJ

    Gary, lay off the ENERGY market or I will send my hired goons to break your climbing equipment…..

    1. Gary Post author

      We are close enough to the YCL that I’m just going to hold from here on out. We may have even gotten it a few days ago.

  15. JJHarmen

    The SM usual early morning sell off is going a little deeper than usual. It should snap back before day’s end. Doesn’t it always?

    1. Gary Post author

      Stocks are due for a DCL over the next 5-8 days. We might even break below the March low to confirm a stretched ICL. But once the move is finished stocks are going to deliver a powerful breakout above 2400.

  16. Robert

    Gary looks like gold DCL is in miners are breaking out. You sure this is just a dead cat bounce? The miner rally seems very strong

  17. bluelagoon

    JNUG is up 25% from last Thurs after piercing through last Dec’s low.

    There was so much talk of everyone backing up the truck once it returned to Dec’s lows – but when it finally happened last week – everyone was calling for gold to go lower.

    Psychology is pretty amazing and so are the market makers at driving fear and greed.

    Is $21 the next stop for JNUG?

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL the comments are starting just like I predicted they would.

      Human nature never changes. This rally will drag gold bugs back in right at the top and then crush everyone when it rolls over and heads down into the final ICL.

      That’s what generates the fuel for the next rally. The pendulum has to swing far enough in the wrong direction in order to build the energy necessary for the next rally. And I think the next intermediate rally will break out of the triangle consolidation.

      1. theworldwithoutfacebook

        This bounce was much more predictable than the bear market ending over the summer. You missed a nice rally. I sold yesterday for pennies, Got scared. Jeez.

      2. bluelagoon

        Gary – I get your point on gold moving into an ICL but you have and are missing maybe a 30-40% rally in jnug by the time it begins to head back down. True – you need to time it, but like you said – gold might rally 5-8 days……it’s on day 6 and up 25%.

        1. Gary Post author

          I learned my lesson last Sept. about trying to trade from the long side late in an intermediate cycle. Not going to make that mistake twice. No thanks.

          The big opportunity right now is in energy and stocks once the DCL is complete, not in trying to time a counter trend trade in metals during the declining phase of the intermediate cycle.

          1. z3r-0

            Glad you’ve come out and said this Gary! I’m with you, let’s wait for the bigger gains at the ICL.

          2. bluelagoon

            When you bought last September Gary – the conditions and technical indicators were very different than they are today. For example – TSI was actually already quite high or topping in XAU/USD vs. where they’re at now – which is near the bottom of the range. Gold might get to 1250’s before it turns back down.

            Also – I don’t understand why the big opportunity is in stocks now. Stocks are going into their weakest 6 month period?

          3. Gary Post author

            10,000 Nasdaq will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of tbe question. Need I say more?

      1. bluelagoon

        Nicely done waverider. What made you decide to get into jnug Thurs? That was the bottom. What will you look for to get back in?

        1. waverider

          Brass not glass. Balls😎 If you know gambling, which this is, run don’t walk to the noisy table. Then leave.

    1. dboz

      18 days straight up for BITCOIN coincides with 17 straight down days for silver. Still can’t bring myself to get into BITCOIN.

  18. Bigdaddy

    I managed to get into SQQQ at 32.70 this morning. Today is the day i am going to make big bucks. While you guys are all bickering over gold, you are missing out on a great short on the stock market.

    1. Christian

      Shorting Stocks is a fool’s errand Big Poppa! You should wait for the next Long set up and then pull the trigger.

  19. dboz

    BD, I am up nearly 5% average just today so with that little 1% in SQQQ you are up, I think you are the one missing out.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Dboz, are you the same dboz that belly aches almost every day about how badly you have been beat up by gold and the miners? Ok, so you are up 5 percent today on a portfolio that is probably down 50 percent. How’s that working for you? I am selling losers at the end of the day and will let a winner run. I can’t do any worse than your buy, hold and belly ache method. I will be a winner with my new strategy.

      1. Don

        BD: You have been known to “bellyache” on more than a few occasions… just saying.

        1. dboz

          Belly aching makes me feel better anyway. Gary makes for a good psychologist holding my hand at every turn and he keeps me from jumping off the cliff.

          1. dboz

            The only issue I see with silver is the Gold/Silver ratio is really getting up there which means if silver is not going to run, gold is more than likely to fall significantly. Not the scenario I would like to see.

  20. Don

    Apple is the stock to watch. It is down .51% and the S&P is down .61%. The heat map is a sea of red this morning. It’s amazing that the S&P not down more than what it is.

    1. Gary Post author

      Don’t miss the opportunity this time. We have about 5-8 days until stocks complete their DCL. That will be your last opportunity to get on board for the rest of the bubble phase.

      I’ll say it again. 10,000 Nasdaq will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

  21. Don

    For what it’s worth, I have noted that none of my miner penny stocks have sold off during this ugly sell off of the PMs. That is unusual. I think that might offer a clue as to where gold is headed.

    I have also noticed that a key points, Ped comes on strong, pounding the table, so to speak, with his bearish outlook for gold. I think Gary will be right and PED, dead wrong.

    1. Christian

      Gary understands the fundamentals of technical analysis. Pedo doesn’t. Plain and simple.

      Fact: Most Traders can’t spot a trend change to save their life 🙂

    2. RTTPD

      The aspect of Gary’s video I find most compelling is when he talks about gold falling into another 8 year chanel trend down.

      I see that as an absolute impossibility. One only needs to read Plato’s Republic to understand that economics are governed by politics instead of linear mathematics.

      The politicians and banksters will never be able to keep the lid on this for another 8 years.

  22. bluelagoon

    Don – not sure I get what you’re saying. Gary is saying Gold is going to have a “small” bounce and then is headed further down into a DCL that will drop below last Dec. At the end of the day – I don’t think it matters who’s right LONGER term unless you’re OLD TURKEY. What matters is short to medium term – that’s what most of us trade.

  23. Don

    I think Gary is right. Gold is in a bull market and will recover from sells offs that occur over the short term.

    1. bluelagoon

      Perhaps Don – but what if he’s wrong? Even if he’s right – anyone who bought JNUG last year in Sept. at $92 with Gary hasn’t seen that price come back yet. It’s at $17 today. They’d have to hold quite a long time ….. so maybe they’ll recover….maybe not with all the decay.

      1. Don

        The fact that Gary says that JNUG will one day ‘recover’ it’s losses tells me that he does not understand the structure of JNUG . It is designed to decay rapidly towards zero which is why it will always reverse split and probably never the other way around.

        Buying JNUG is like playing against a casino when the house has an edge and no one can ever beat the mathematics over the long term, no matter how lucky one is. Actually, the casinos probably don’t have a game that gives them the same edge as what Direxion has with JNUG (and DUST, NUGT). Most of Direxion’s 3X funds are a licence to steal from gullible ‘investors’.

        1. bluelagoon

          Correction – Gary did not say one day JNUG will recover its losses only like you – that gold will. And yes – those who play the futures contracts will eventually win but for those who are playing leveraged ETF’s as you explained, are destined to lose even if gold recovers.

        2. Gary Post author

          That would be true if gold remains in a bear market or trades sideways never producing the bull market I’m expecting.

          But gold is going to do the exact same thing that bitcoin is doing only much much bigger. During the bubble phase JNUG will make up all the early losses including decay, and before the bubble is done JNUG will easily be over $500 split adjusted. With gold at $5000-$10,000 how can it not be?

          $10,000 gold not possible you say?

          Ask yourself if you think $10,000 bitcoin is possible. If you said yes then double it for gold.

  24. JJHarmen

    Just like every other day, the SM is rallying back after a morning sell down. Deep corrections are no longer permitted.

  25. primetime

    Everyone just relax…it is going to be O.K. Keep the bigger picture in focus. Quit trading by the second, minute, or hour. Gary has said it a thousand time…Nasdaq 10,000-20,000 without problem. And he has said it two thousand times JNUG 500.

    1. primetime

      and he has said three thousand times…Gold 5,000 to 10,000 without question. RELAX!

  26. primetime

    Ped has never been right and Gary has never been wrong…This is most definitley, without a doubt a Gold Bull Market…so RELAX!

    1. Pedestrian

      You didn’t ask me Clarence but I will comment on that chart anyway. If Silvercorp drops back below 3.70 in the next while you should probably get the hell out because its a long fall back to the bottom once support gives way. It must bounce or the chart is screwed.

  27. ziasDad

    Great analysis, Gary. Thanks!

    A significant part of your analysis structure is built around the 8 year cycle low. Have you considered either or both of these possibilities?

    1) What if there is no 8 year cycle in gold? Has gold been freely traded long enough for us to be sure that an 8 year cycle exists? I would think we’d need to see at least 8 or 10 or those before we can conclude that there is indeed an 8 year cycle in gold. Gold hasn’t been freely traded long enough to give us ten 8 year cycles, or even eight 8 year cycles. Is the history of gold prices too short for us to have a statistically significant number of 8 year cycle lows?
    2) There is indeed an 8 year cycle in gold but the cycle low is not in yet and comes in later this year or next or even 2019 or 20. Why can’t this be at least a possibility? What if the 3 1/2 yr cycle in the CRB gets left translated, and makes its next 3 1/2 yr cycle low a little early, and that coincides with the real 8 year cycle low in gold?

  28. espresso

    Gary, what do you think about the likelihood that if/when gold has a failed cycle, silver just has to fall to 15.67 to have a low below last year’s YCL? I know it might not… I assume that if it does, it’s still gold which rules the day regardless. Maybe silver will be relatively stronger during the ICL because it has been so weak already, telegraphing the impending end of the ICL.

    1. Gary Post author

      I tend to ignore silver. It’s a very thin market and can do all kinds of weird stuff.

      Gold is the cyclical driver of the metals sector. Once gold finishes the dead cat bounce out of it’s DCL then there should be one more left translated daily cycle and a test of the lower triangle trend line before the sector is ready to produce a sustained rally and a breakout from the triangle.

      That’s when Ped will get his bull market confirmation, only we will have seen it coming almost two years before him.

  29. Christian

    Gary — Are you looking to get back into DUST next week sometime? Or are you gonna wait for the final bloodbath in Gold..?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m holding until I think the final ICL is in. I don’t think I would be able to time the exit and reentry during this daily cycle anyway so I’m not going to try.

      I’ll sell DUST sometime in June or early July when I see real panic in the sector again. Preferably sentiment on gold will be at or below 30% bulls at that time.

  30. victor

    Guys, tomorrow is a CPI and I think we will see double bottom, then a bounce will be more convincing..

  31. zkotpen


    Cool questions!

    1. You may wish to consider:
    – Price of gold in 1913-2017 vs. CPI over the same period.
    – We’ve discussed that the oldest known coin we’re aware of is from around 2700 b.c.
    – Ben Franklin donated 5 golden guineas to a particular charity in mid-18th century British North America. What’s the exact value of that donation?
    In other words, if you want to find the answers to your gold questions, it’s best to get out your shovel and start digging — you get the best answers that way!

    2. That downward sloping trendline that Gary & Ped refer to in their longer term analysis needs to break to confirm the 2015 low (it is still technically unconfirmed by cycles analysis for that reason).

    The big question becomes: What’s up with the next 8-year cycle low? Will it be a higher low or a lower low than the most recent one (presumably 2015, though this is not 100% certain, as you point out.)

    Whether that trendline breaks does not say anything conclusive about the next 8-year cycle low, per se. — that trendline could break but 1375 holds; the trendline could break and the current 8-year cycle could still end up left translated, even if 1375 is exceeded.

    1. ziasDad

      Thanks. I agree that the downtrend line needs to get broken to confirm the bull.

      I’m still not sold on the 8 year cycle, but even if there is an 8 year cycle, why couldn’t it come in next year or the year after (instead of already being in with the 2015 low)? And if it does exist and it came in in 2015, then there’s nothing that says this new 8 year cycle can’t top early in an extremely left translated manner and gold continues lower for another 6 or 7 years. That seems unlikely to me (and to Gary too). But until that downtrend line is broken, we can’t be sure the bear is over and done with.

      1. Gary Post author

        The downtrend line has been broken in both silver and miners.

        So does that mean the bull is confirmed in those two assets and now we’re just waiting for gold to catch up?

  32. Gary Post author

    I’ll be damned if they aren’t going to bring the stock market all the way back.

    It sure seems like the PPT has no intention of allowing any kind of correction ahead of the June rate hike.

    I’ve drastically reduced the stock portfolio, but I may have to give up on a normal correction and just revert back to the bigger picture, and focus on the longer term target of 10,000+ and forget about trying to time a perfect entry. At this point who knows if it will be allowed to happen?????

  33. Gary Post author

    I’m interested in where short term sentiment is going to be at tonight in GDX and GDXJ.

    It’s possible that this could be the end of the bounce if sentiment reached a bullish extreme today.

    1. Christian

      No way — We’re currently flirting with the 50DMA and we could get an intraday pull back, but I’m almost certain we’ll get a marginal break and a re-test of the trendline around 23/23.5 first before we roll over.

  34. Goild

    The PPT is still in play, SM may rise and with it the N225. Then FXY, TIP will go lower taking GOLD down to $1200, $1176.
    The miners are resilient.
    Hopefully gold will sink deep, taking the miners further down, so that we can pick up the miners riches.
    But who cares? You can make good lunch money every day, courtesy of JNUG’s volatility.

    1. Don

      Goild: No to PPLT. I have a moderate silver position right now (switched from a 2X to a 3X yesterday) and and that is about all I want to commit to during this normally weak time of the year for the PMs. I am expecting a pop in the PMs ( as is everyone else …..not a good sign).

  35. JJHarmen

    Yep, the market has erased almost all of the morning’s sell off. Nothing has changed, The patterns are intact. I am glad I got out my shorts when I did otherwise I would be stressed out to the max.

  36. Dday

    Here is my take on the GDX daily

    MACD crossed yesterday indicating a buy
    Stoch not yet indicating overbought
    TSI approaching neutral
    RSI reached overbought but I would say still a few days before stoch and macd top…


  37. Don

    JJ: The number of declining stocks to advancing is still almost 2:1, continuing a pattern of internal market weakness that has been going on for over a week. However, we could still run up to new all time highs with a push from the only five stocks that matter. If we do, I will consider adding more short positions. Going short is now the trade that nobody wants to be in.

  38. Goild

    The most active ETF’s are SPY, XLF, and GDX with volumes 78m, 75m, and 62m.
    So there is a lot of interest/money in miners.

  39. Goild


    I will wait for a deeper bottom on PMs.
    Though it looks like we are getting a good bounce on the miners.
    We shall see.

  40. JJHarmen

    Hey bigdaddy, your SQQQ is underwater. Aren’t you getting tired of getting beat up with that play? isn’t this the third time?

    1. Bigdaddy

      The day ain’t over yet my friend. I have actually lost very little on the SQQQ trade. If it closes down on the day, I will sell it at the close and limit my loss for the day.

  41. jacob2

    SM Bull. Owned a bunch of 3D printer stocks for over a year: DDD, XONE, MTLS. Bought them cause I’m an old turkey and they all had nice bases. With the market flat to down recently, interestingly, they’ve been on an upside tear. Even if we get the expected summer correction this bodes well for an ongoing bull
    SM with the more cyclical names leading.

  42. bluelagoon

    If GDX can get past the 50DMA at 22.67 – I think it has a good chance of going to the 200MA at $24 before heading down again.

  43. Pedestrian

    Man, what a lot of repetitive blather from the bugs today. All rhetoric and no substance as usual. The whole lot of you are underwater on old trades and yet here you are talking pie in sky nonsense about 10,000 gold and 500 dollar JNUG.

    With not a shred of evidence or a chart to support your reasoning either. Just wild eyed speculative fantasy and hope mixed liberally with gambling, greed and deception. What a combination. Just don’t come back crying when the pixie juice wears off and the real world intrudes again.

    In a years time or more most of you hero’s are going to wish you had just waited for the time to buy the bottom and sat on your cash in the interim. God loves you though. How would the rest of us make a dime if not for the gold-bugs penchant to get long at every new low.

    I love how history repeats in this little community.

    1. waverider

      Mr Pedestrian,
      Aren’t you eliminating your market if we all gave in and followed your advise? And what a boring website it would be. God loves you too.

  44. matrix

    Gold: to 1194….then 1229…..1180/1155. BUY…!!! end of WAVE A down. WAVE B up to 1460…..then WAVE C down to 700…..imho

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