46 thoughts on “THE PENDULUM STILL HAS FURTHER TO SWING

    1. RTTPD

      I think your analysis is fairly close to being on the money.

      It looks to me like the geo-political situation within the US may start to get crazy by the time gold bottoms in June on the ICL/YCL.

      Kooky McCain and whole host of others like Blumenthal, are working behind the scenes right now that will create chaos in the future and will aid in changing sentiment and help push gold to the 1400.00 level.

      The timing of Gary’s call and the geo-political chaos that is coming look in near alignment.

  1. Roland Z

    But Gary it would also be a good strategy to buy in the half of the amount someone wants to invest in the intermidiate cycle low like on tuesday or end of last week and in case the miners fall more someone buys more. Last year you also said wait to buy miners until to the end of june and finally the have rosen in the end of may and was not invested. So to be sure its not a bad idea invest a part in a cycle low. Of course you can be right but if something unexpactable happens again like in the end of last may people are not taking part not even little bit. Thanks Roland

  2. Robert

    Your last video is sort of confusing. You say miners are possibly bouncing before they drop to a DCL. This bounce in GDX broke the downtrendline so that would mean that it alrdy had its DCL. Gold looks like it has now made its DCL so both should continue rally here. DUST could be in trouble

  3. ras

    Looks ok thus far, nay sayers notwithstanding. One has to go where price takes us shedding our bias. Price goes up, fine. Price goes down fine. Price goes sideways, fine. I do not ask to see the distant scene. One step ahead enough for me.

  4. cdntrader

    You know Gary this whole theory of gold having to move back to lower traingle line really isnt necessary. We could also consolidate for several weeks much like what we did last year between March and July before shooting up another 100 dollars in short order.
    Everyone and their dog think gold is heading down into June or July including you..which makes me think that gold either consolidates or keeps moving higher to fool everyone. Everyone has been conditioned to expect gold to plummet in May and June..well maybe this year it doesnt.
    I think what would catch the most people by surprise is gold continuing higher over the next few weeks and breaking well out of the triangle..that would shock a lot of people including you. If that happens then of course you will come up with another theory on why this happened. Sentiment was bullish last spring and yet gold did not drop..sentiment got even more bullish by summer..crazy bullish and it seems everyone yourself included only saw positive things for gold afterwards. Here we are..I wait for the market to force you to change your latest fairy tale..

    1. Gary Post author

      Even that really mild ICL last year still had to complete a failed daily cycle before the decline was over. Gold has yet to deliver a failed daily cycle.

      I would even go so far as to say that mild ICL is the reason the next intermediate cycle topped in a left translated fashion and produced such a hard move down into the yearly cycle low.

      I don’t think any of us want a repeat of that. So it would be better if this ICL is deep enough to generate the fuel for a break out from the triangle consolidation.

  5. Gary Post author

    Every ICL since the bull began in 2001 has either had a failed daily cycle or at least two waves down before an ICL is struck. Even the mild ICL last May formed as an ABC correction.

    So either this daily cycle needs to produce a small bounce and another leg down, or we need one more daily cycle.

    This isn’t done yet.

  6. matrix

    Gold: to 1194….then 1229…..1180/1155. BUY…!!! end of WAVE A down. WAVE B up to 1460…..then WAVE C down to 700…..imho….and my trade plan.-

  7. matrix

    seems some thins wave A down finished. Instead, only wave iii of wave 3 ended. We still need wave iv and v of wave 3 of wave A. Then….wave 4 and wave5. Usually waves iii of 3….look like final down move……but rsi amd other indicators leed me to think we still need further down and hit sentiment with vengeance.

  8. Gary Post author

    The May ICL last year was one of the mildest ICL’s ever. Yet the commercials still had to cover 64,000 shorts (gold) before the bottom formed. By comparison the commercials covered over 200,000 shorts into the December YCL.

    Take a guess how many shorts they’ve covered so far.

    A little less than 6,000.

    The commercials need to cover a hell of a lot more shorts before this ICL will be finished. And the large specs need to sell a hell of a lot more longs.

  9. Dday

    Possible GDX target around 24 to meet the recent trendline over next 3-4 days… Which would coincide with a price of 24 for DUST at which point the GDX will show an RSI around 88 and gold topping around $1240. At which point(if that actually happens) i’ll pile into DUST, while at the same time we will start to see the over bullish comments reappear.

    https://invst.ly/3xyay

    1. Pedestrian

      By the time this summer is over the bulls will have been slammed to the pavement because the move down is going to go a lot bloodier than any of them suspect is possible. Forget that triangle. It is just a minor pattern within a larger trade. Good for one more bounce at best, it is destined to break lower when it terminates, not break out as the wild eyed optimist bulls keep saying. Gold and silver will continue to offer excellent short opportunities this year but will be a real screw-fest for the hardcore bugs who have been getting splattered on the windshield for 6 long years already. I still expect gold to retest its 1040 lows of December 2015 before this is all over with a good possibility we don’t get a final bottom in gold until the middle 900 hundreds. There is a worst case scenario of gold going all the way into the low 800’s that should challenge even the most hardened of the bears.

      1. Dday

        As I said i’ll get into dust at 24(hopefully). The triangle says a test at $1180 if it breaks then maybe lower but the weekly rsi has already reached oversold, yes the stoch and MACD have to catch up. So $1180 would tie in nicely for a bottom(temporary). So what are you basing $1040 and lower on.

        Weekly. RSI showing oversold, stoch and macd need to catch up

        https://invst.ly/3xz3-

        “…By the time this summer is over the bulls will have been slammed to the pavement because the move down is going to go a lot bloodier than any of them suspect is possible.”

        All very well saying that, its a very bold statement, but you need to show why. Where are your charts? You expect gold to test the December lows….Why?

        ” bulls will have been slammed”

        Maybe:-)

        1. Pedestrian

          Seriously DDay? I have written hundreds of posts and linked charts too many times to mention on this topic since last January. You aren’t new here so I’m pretty sure you read some of them already.

        2. Pedestrian

          OK, sorry that was not a good answer. What we have just seen with gold during 2016 and 2017 is a severely left translated double-top. That is to say the top of 2016 and the recent peak of 2017 are a pair in a way similar to the two peaks we saw in 2011 and 2012. Furthermore they are on the exact same angle as each other. The peaks of 2011 and 2012 led to a devastating crash in the price of gold and I expect this more recent pair to also yield a very substantial decline. This is not over by a long shot. All rallies should be sold along the way. The chart as it now stands is extremely dangerous to anybody holding long positions (in my opinion naturally).

          We will have a conclusive answer to this whole bull market/ bear market debate this year and I am pretty certain my viewpoint is going to prevail by the time its all over. And that’s the same day we will see who was swimming without trunks all along (bullshitting everyone in other words).

  10. dboz

    So much bearishness on here. Everyone expects more down side and many expect more WAY down. Still expecting my theory to play out. Too many shorts, too many sideline sitters, too many expecting significant drop, it’s all set up to have a lot of fuel to propel a face ripper up move.

    While I am prepared for Peds scenario, I expect an upwards launch.

    I looked at 2008-2010 and the stoch barely touched 20 in nearly a year and overbought price extremes were nothing like this now. Tame in comparison. If we did bottom then you can start to see the formation of an upward channel that allows the next leg to hit 1400’s.

    Open to ridicule over this one.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/o6FByhij/

    1. Dday

      Its a fair point, the stoch and rsi could bounce from here and $1220 could have been the low, I think if the macd crosses then we could potentially have at least a few more weeks of downside, using the stoch alone isn’t really enough in my opinion, more a combination ie stoch together with MACD. Its all speculation and educated guesses at the end of the day. I would say that on a chart stretching that far back a drop to $1180 would be hardly noticeable.

      1. Dday

        I think Gary would argue that the points you have shown show DCL’s wheras ICL corrections need to be much deeper. But I don’t understand cycles enough, so I would be interested in his opinion…

          1. dboz

            Well, that’s the million dollar question. Definitely a bull then, may or may not be a bull now. If it is a bull we need to get into some form of up channel, that’s all I was showing. Similar symetry and a channel could be forming now if we bounce soon. More down side does not really set up a channel.

      1. Dday

        It’s nice to bet against the norm, May/June is considered seasonally weak for gold…. But again it could be different this year. Being a contrarian sometimes works, but on the whole doesn’t ,just look at SM shorters…..

        1. dboz

          For sure. If everyone thinks the same thing will happen, seems like an easy move. Never thought the market likes to yield easy money. I guess the SM is proving maybe it is easy money.

      2. Gary Post author

        You are trying to extrapolate sentiment from what you see on the internet. Your bias is to read what catches your attention. Then you come up with what you assume is extreme sentiment levels.

        Actual sentiment:
        Intermediate degree sentiment for gold = 43% bulls. At intermediate cycle lows it’s usually below 35%

        Intermediate degree sentiment for silver = 39% bulls. At intermediate cycle lows it’s usually below 30% bulls.

        Short term sentiment got too bearish and the metals needed a bounce out of a DCL. But this isn’t over yet. Either gold needs to have another leg down before this daily cycle bottoms, or it will require another left translated cycle after this one.

        All ICL’s form as at least an ABC correction or a failed daily cycle. Neither has occurred yet.

    2. Pedestrian

      Of course Boss, there will always be rally’s within the trend. That’s where the money is made. But the primary trend is down and breakouts above 1300, 1400 and 1500 have been completely ruled out by my charting until the *real* bottom gets hit.

  11. LiesandDamnLies

    Gary

    Good post. You presented a number of possibilities. I agree with one of them.

    I agree that the current GDX action is setting up a trap for the early longs. I think that Gold and the GDX will start to roll over early next week. I think that your DCL will happen late next week or into early the week later.

    I’m looking to get back into my Aussie miners. As a signal to my entry point looking for three red days in gold and to get into the fourth red day. Just like what happened 5th-8th July 2016.

    When that happens your banksters will be happy and your sentiment indicators should be very bearish.

    Then looking for a nice gold run up into early July and turning down afterwards till late August/early Sept.

    cheers Lies

  12. Dday

    For dboz:

    https://invst.ly/3xzu6

    weekly gold 2008-2011 notice correlation between MACD crossing down and corrections in gold. Currently the MACD hasn’t crossed on the weekly, if it bounces from here than maybe you will be right on all the bears will be caught of guard. If it crosses then we should have at least a further few weeks of decline….

  13. Pedestrian

    Stock markets have stalled. I don’t know if any of you have noticed that yet. But since the Nikkei hit 20,000 on the 9th it has been unable to break through higher and instead is gently turning lower. Almost all markets are doing the same as I surmised so there is indeed resistance here but nothing more serious has yet materialized. If we do get a decline it should begin next week. As an aside, the NYSE is 225 years old on May 17th. That might be a good day to start a minor correction.

    1. Dday

      Back to your point about 2011/2012, good points, and the 2013 low was much higher than the 2012 low. I would ask Gary how does that differ from today’s setup? Looking back didn’t the higher yearly low also indicate a bull market at the beginning of 2013?

    2. paradise1222

      Hi Ped,

      first time poster here and always fond of you and Gary’s conversations.

      Since you are a exp trader/observer, I would like to you ask thaat what is your position on holding physical metals vs. interesting throught ETF funds.

      Thanks in advance.

      Pari

  14. espresso

    How unusual is it for a YCL to come just 6 months after the prior YCL? I was surprised to hear you say that, since the last two YCLs were in December and 12 months apart, and it looks like November before that, 13 months, then 11 months back to December of ’13 again.

    Maybe a short YCL is more typical (historically) when launching into a strong bull move?

    1. Gary Post author

      If gold is starting a new bull market, and I think it is, then the yearly cycle low has to migrate to the summer. As gold typically has 2 intermediate cycles embedded within the yearly cycle, it can’t continue to have the yearly cycle low occurring at the end of the year. That has to come to an end and the yearly cycle low has to migrate either to the beginning of the year, or the middle of the year. I think it’s going to migrate into the summer with a test of that lower triangle trend line.

      Notice how the yearly cycle low for stocks has migrated to the early part of the year. That usually indicates a bull market is in progress. If the yearly cycle low were to occur in October or
      November then we would start to look for bear market behavior.

      1. Robert

        If the YCL is to occur in the Summer and start another baby bull like you said I doubt it just rockets straight up. We may get a repeat of Dec 2015 with a rounded bottom. Like a long cup pattern

        1. Gary Post author

          A breakout of a triangle consolidation pattern can generate a particularly powerful move. If we couple that with a break of the December lows in the mining stocks we would have the recipe for a second baby bull rally in miners.

          That’s my working hypothesis at the moment.

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