SUMMER VACATION

I’m leaving soon for my summer climbing trip. During this time I’m not going to have a lot of time to keep up with the blog so I’ll mostly just concentrate on the nightly reports for subscribers.

I’ll be back in August and things will return to normal.

Gold has tagged that $1245 zone I noted and the dollar reached the 50% retracement. the 5 day RSI has reached overbought. This is a potential spot for the cycle to top. So plan accordingly.
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123 thoughts on “SUMMER VACATION

  1. Robert

    Have a good holiday. Don’t mean to bug u but this looks like an ICL in meners. If it was just a dead cat bounce no way they would have realized this strong. Gdx is now 23.5 it has recovered neatly all the previous decline

    1. Gary Post author

      Nope, just a low volume bounce while stocks work through their DCL. Once the next leg up in the stock market starts gold will resume its ICL decline.

      Once the rally finishes it will give us the pivot to construct the intermediate down trend line. I’m just guessing at the top in the chart. Don’t assume that is a target.

    2. Christian

      Robert — You’re starting to sound like a broken record.. Why not trust the guy that’s been doing this a heck of a lot longer than you have?

      Folks, this is why everyone you should study ‘Cycle Analysis’ — it is paramount. It will take your trading style/investment outlook to the next level. Plain and simple 🙂

  2. Gary Post author

    We’re going to get the next buying opportunity in stocks very soon.

    This will be the last chance to get on board for the run to 10,000.

  3. primetime

    Statement from primetime 9:00 AM eastern Tuesday morning before hell broke loose Tuesday night:

    “What is going to happen when they are hell bent on destroying the outsider Trump? He has no chance and impeachment or outright chaos is on the table. They want him destroyed from congress and the media.

    Then what will the dollar and gold do?”

    As I have said for months, sometimes you have to get your nose out of them charts and use some common sense and look at the world around you.

    I would not want to be on the PM sideline today. One big week of some major upside in the PM complex so far. As a wise man has said, most never have the courage to pull the trigger and buy, that is why most will not make the money. Caveman, neanderthal, primenuts, old turkey—-out! G-day.

    FOMO—MOFO

      1. Gary Post author

        Like I’ve said time and time again. The news always seems to arrive in time to drive a cycle low. Stocks are 36 days into their daily cycle and are looking for an excuse to drop into the DCL. They just got the excuse.

        Now be prepared to buy, buy, buy very soon. This will be your last chance to get on board for the rest of the move to 10,000.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar is doing what I told you it was going to do months ago.

      Again don’t make the mistake of thinking this is the beginning of something. It’s not. It’s the final bloodbath phase into a YCL. Once it’s done, and it should only last 1-3 more days, then the dollar will begin a multi month rally.

      Geesh you guys should have this stuff figured out by now.

  4. Dday

    Thought i would share my thoughts on gold.

    Although rsi now overbought. MACD only signalling buy today, the stoch still only around neutral, and TSI has a way to go. Thats telling me the rally isn’t over yet. Although we are nearing the top.

    https://invst.ly/3yztz

      1. Gary Post author

        Forget about chart indicators. Haven’t we learned by now that they are meaningless at cycle turning points?

        Gold has until the stock market bottoms to rally. Once stocks complete their DCL then the next leg up in stocks will start and gold will roll over and start the move down into its ICL.

  5. Steffmeister

    Nice grades from my largets holding K92 Mining:

    • 1m at 6.01 g/t AuEq plus 1m at 4.33 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0038
    • 2m at 29.6 g/t AuEq, including 0.6m at 130.94 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0045
    • 4m at 174.78 g/t AuEq, including 1m at 244.09 g/t AuEq, plus 3.2m at 6.88 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0046
    • 75m at 21.38 g/t AuEq, including 1.05m at 51.22 g/t AuEq in hole GCDC0052
    • 3m at 27.93 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0053
    • 3m at 22.22 g/t AuEq, plus 1.6m at 4.13 g/t AuEq in hole GCDD0059

    along with a rising gold price, time to sell !?!?

    Maybe we are in a BP – 1950 explosive move up here?

    British Petrol 1955 vs. Gold today:
    https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u9880/bp-70s-updated-30042017.jpg

  6. Bigdaddy

    I got a fill for 500 SQQQ at 32 32 so I am up some. I hope this dump is the start of something big and not just a another by the dip horse shit thing.

  7. Don

    It has been a long time since the S&P has been down more than 1%. My USLV and junior gold ETF are now profitable . I guess I should be selling if Gary, Christian and Ped are right about gold going down after this dead cat bounce.

    1. primetime

      Is this still a dead cat bounce? If this goes into impeachment mode, game on. SM rules, trends, techs, etc will not matter. Better hold on tight baby.

    2. Pedestrian

      Not yet Don.

      If you have been following my commentary for the past months you already know that my call was for a US stock market correction to be triggered once the Nikkei hit 20,000 (provided the Japanese equity market was unable to break through resistance).

      Well, it has come true and confirmed my thesis for cross-index analysis as a valid idea.

      We arrived at 20,000 and essentially double-topped before the Nikkei took a header today and has fallen back 500 points since the peak on Monday. My forecast in this particular case was for gold to take off as the Yen surged higher. I mentioned this was coming in a post on yesterdays thread as well as several in the past weeks.

      So I am just updating here so you know my long term forecast on gold is not in conflict with this actual event (a market sell off that is meaningful). My expectation is that the Nikkei will drop all the way back to 18,100 at a minimum and during that time gold will be bid nicely.

      So I am bullish gold now that my technical pattern has been validated..

  8. Gary Post author

    I can’t stress this enough. The big opportunity is coming in stocks and may have already occurred in oil.

    Those are the markets where you need to buy the dip.

    Watch the McClellan oscillator for an oversold condition in the next 1-3 days. Then buy heavily. This will be your last chance to get on board for the rest of the ride to 10,000.

    We should see some real panic in the stock market by Friday (assuming the PPT doesn’t step in and abort the correction before that). When you see that panic thats the signal to buy.

        1. Pedestrian

          Are you a complete moron?

          I have been talking about the stock market / Nikkei and gold / Yen correlation since February and that idea has panned out as being correct. That, my idiot friend, makes me one of the very rare people on this planet who was able to accurately predict where the next market correction would materialize from.

          I told you to watch for Nikkei 20,000 as the trigger and also told you if that happened to go long gold. Well I was 100% right even if I could not time it. So if you were half a man instead of a daily a$$hole then congratulations are in order today, not your pathetic criticisms.

    1. Christian

      Oooooh sugar muffin you.. I’m already on Holidays 🙂

      You do realize that I’m probably the only guy on here making money while the rest of you are too busy questioning Gary at every single turn — listen and learn.

        1. Christian

          Mostly Miners and Oil over the past few months but I do have an ongoing position in Stocks that’s done relatively well, but only because I’ve given up on trying to short Mother Market.

  9. JJHarmen

    The S&P is now down to where I sold all my shorts. The morning sell off should be over soon if the usual pattern prevails. I am not shorting this market.

  10. Don

    Those who believe the miners heading back down are in ‘watching ‘ mode right now or perhaps loading up on DUST. Is that what you are doing Gary?

  11. Bigdaddy

    I am getting close to recovering all my SQQQ losses. I am going to puke if the market turns around today. Don, what do u think? Is this the start of something big?

    1. Don

      bigdaddy: As I have been saying for some time, the advance decline stats have been deteriorating while the SM was making new highs and that isn’t bullish. Today, all the of the big five heavy hitters are down significantly and that is something different. However, bull markets never die easily so sudden rallies can be expected. I am short and will not cover. I expect more downside.

  12. Christian

    Folks, if you wanna make some money then get ready to short the Miners!

    I mentioned yesterday that GDX was consolidating above the 50 DMA for the final push up and I was bang on.. On the chart below, you’ll notice that volume in the Miners is declining whilst making new highs. If you’re looking for a low risk set-up then keep an eye on the 200 DMA and the declining trendline around $24. Once momentum starts to fade then that’s your cue to get in…

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/7GTX2Jkk/

    1. Don

      The 50 day moving average for volume for the S&P is down almost 15% from a year ago. The same could be said for AAPL that is down over 40% , AMZN which is down over 30% from a year ago. All have hit all time highs in the past few days. So, tell us Christian, why you think falling volumes means a stock is going to go down?

      1. Christian

        Seriously Don?! Lol! Look, I don’t have time to babysit but I’ll give you the long and short of it.

        First off: Don’t you dare compare apples and oranges! The stock Market for example has fallen victim to manipulation ever since QE was introduced, which means that most indicators have become (mostly) useless. By the way, the resulting effects of QE are still very much in play whether you like or not, hence why Gary keeps telling everyone not to SHORT the Market but to buy the dips instead.

        >Common F*ing sense that BigDaddy and a couple of others on this forum have yet to comprehend.

        Second: A declining volume on a bounce UP in this case is often indicative of a top.. Meaning, we’re running out of buyers and momentum is starting to sway.

        Is it 100% full proof? Of course not.. nothing ever is in this business 🙂 but it’s one more indicator in your toolbox that you should use in conjunction with everything else, including [but not limited to], moving averages, sentiment, cycle analysis, market psychology.. and a plethora of other indicators that I sure as hell ain’t gonna tell you about, Lol!

      2. Don

        Sonny, I don’t think you have been watching the markets long enough to know what volume can or cannot mean. It depends on the circumstances. I view rising volume as generally bearish, particularly after a string of advances . On the other hand, a sudden increase in volume immediately after a long decline usually means the opposite. Shrinking volume in a rising market could go either way although I view it to be bullish more so than bearish.

        1. Christian

          Aaaaaaaaah Yes..! I’ve been trading for decades says the old grumpy bear, Lol!

          Don, with all due respect 🙂 everyone here’s been trading for ever and ever and ever and yet strangely enough.. no one here seems adept enough to come up with a good trading plan. Except for Gary…. and myself 🙂

          Time spent in front of your monitor does not make you an expert, not in the least.

          Mozart started composing at the age of 3 — ponder on that for a minute.

    1. Gary Post author

      You need to unload sometime soon.

      As soon as stocks bottom the metals will top and then get the crap kicked out of them over the next 4-5 weeks.

      There is always risk that the PPT can step in at any time and stop a correction in the stock market so be careful not to get caught holding too long.

  13. Don

    The PPT doesn’t buy stocks directly, They can only buy futures and then hope the market players follow their lead. Other central banks do buy stocks and make no secret of the fact. The BOJ and Swiss National Bank are two central banks that buy American equities and ETFs,. but not the FED. You should know all this Gary.

  14. Don

    I have sold almost all my profitable Canadian oil positions. I am not buying into the idea that energy is the place to be. Far to many are thinking oil stocks are going up. They might but if we get a correction, they will fall even if oil does go up.

    1. jacob2

      Continue to hold many oiler”s. We are getting our summer correction early. Fine with me. Oil stocks flat to up. Money comming out of big cap tech where all the hot money has been flowing looking for a new home, oil? Staying with the trade.

  15. JJHarmen

    We just had a test of the day’s lows for the S&P and it held. I am thinking of going long but I am concerned that Don might be right. I will wait and see how the day progresses.

      1. TraderPete

        It’s the name of SLEP’s Greek Granny. She’s buying up all the gold and silver in the world. So, you better buy some before she gets it all. 😎 🤓 😻

        1. Don

          Why the “tight stop” on an ETF as volatile as GDX? You may be ultimately be proven right but get stopped out by the machines. Sounds like your bearish outlook for the miners is less than enthusiastic.

          1. Christian

            I think Miners will top before Gold but I also think that Gold still has a bit more fuel in the tank which means GDX could continue to bounce up to the 200 DMA and subsequently push DUST all the way back down to $24, give or take.

            Right now I’m just following momentum as well as exercising good money management.. I don’t like to gamble but I do like to time my trades accordingly, even if that means getting stopped out a couple of times.

            It works for me and that’s all that matters.

  16. dboz

    Wanting to not get stopped out but some have tripped and others are getting close. 50% liquidations so far, just in case. Prepared to dump the rest if necessary. Not going to ride it down again. Too hard to recover. Taking Gary’s advice, sell, take the losses and leverage back in lower to make it back quicker. Of course I fear the return of the bear.

    1. Pedestrian

      Go figure genius. I have been warning you about this for three months. It was in fact both predictable and predicted. All major markets trade directionally together these days. As it turns out the smaller markets are also not immune. Recall I pointed out a notable change in the behavior of the Shanghai recently that I thought was a warning sign a correction was coming to us. Seriously, you are one very stunned dude. It just wasn’t obvious until today.

      Waste of my time.

      1. Don

        Wow, get a grip Ped. We have only had one day down from all time highs so it’s a little early to be pounding your sunken chest just yet. BTW, I am short the market, not you, so shut your hole up and continue to be the dick that you are.

      1. Don

        What? Ped is now bullish on silver? Is he going to perform one of his trade mark flip flops on us again? It wasn’t very long ago that he was writing copiously about how the bottom was going to fall out for the PMs (well.. gold anyway).

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY, next buying opportunity is not to come too soon but rather in early July alongside USD’s YCL.
    The current fall to DCL in a few trading session will produce strong bear levels for SM’s oscillators (McLellan to -100) and that will require one more DC, hence a lower low – the final low, the YCL in late June or early July –> I’ll go long crude oil and Russell2k arround there.

    Have a great holiday!

  18. JJHarmen

    What the hell was today all about anyway? There is only a minimal chance that Trump will be removed from office so what is spooking the markets so badly?

    1. ziasDad

      Trump’s administration is in chaos, Trump may get impeached or he may resign. Markets don’t like the uncertainty. That’s the excuse anyway, but EWer’s would say the market was ready for a correction of this magnitude and cycle counters would say the same thing. Sentiment. Market was ready for a drop and Trump was the catalyst. Question is will he continue to be this loose cannon flying rolling out of control from one side of the ship of state to the other, running over this top bureaucrat and that top bureaucrat, continuing the unpredictable chaos in the White House, or will he figure out how to restore order and do that going forward? I don’t think he has what it takes to do the latter, so I think random chaos (is that a redundancy?) will reign in the White House until he resigns or gets impeached. So I expect more volatility going forward, maybe another rally to new all time highs, but then…. ??? If the markets continue to perceive that the White House is in chaos, I think the sell off will continue. If he quits and Pence takes over quickly and the perception is that Pence is restoring order, then we could have one helluva a rally. That might give us Gary’s blow off top.

  19. Bigdaddy

    In one day I have recovered all my small losses of the previous five days. I am now up a few hundred bucks. I have kept my SQQQ as it is now a winner. All you a-holes that were laughing at me can save your apologies until I sell for a good profit.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Only those that were making fun of me are the a-holes, like JJharmen who said my dog was smarter than me. I don’t listen to him anyway. He was short and covered and now whining about it. Boo-hoo.

          1. Bigdaddy

            That is all those have insulted me have to say and then we will be good. I am not a stupid person. I am just new at this game but i am learning fast.

  20. Don

    Just for information, market leaders got hit hard : SMH (semis) -3.7% AAPL -3.3% FB -3.2% MSFT -2.8%
    I expect we will see more downside that may even turn into a correction of more than just a few percent.

  21. Robert

    And Gary is off on vacation darn. This don’t look like no dead cat bounce in gold miners, there’s a possibility that we just had the ICL

    1. Gary Post author

      No possibility of that. Gold has 1-3 more days to rally. Once stocks bottom then the miners and silver are going to get the crap knocked out of them. Gold will hold up better but it’s still going to test the lower triangle trend line.

  22. dboz

    I thought miners lagged badly today. After being beat down we had a $20+ dollar move up in gold, the dollar got smashed, the USDJPY was obliterated, the market dropped big and political uncertainty was huge and the miners said, nah, not today. Puny 3-5% gains. I was expecting 20-30% today. Launch mode. Tells me that any pullback in metals will send miners crashing.

  23. Don

    Bluelaggon deserves credit for an excellent upside call he made on SOXS and the VIX just yesterday. SOXS was up 13% today and VXX up a whopping 18%. Great timing !! Homerj is another who said that the longs and leveraged longs were going to get burned today and he was dead on. Good calls from two guys that seem to have a clue.

  24. Goild

    BD

    Be careful, do not get euphoric.
    Unless you are gifted it may take 5-10 years before you can make real money.
    Best wishes for you to become a profitable trader.

  25. zkotpen

    Christian,

    Interesting charts!

    I noticed your original bounce target from last week — liked it at the time, and like it even more now!

    I haven’t looked at the charts since the close, but I was teetering on the same decision as you: Whether there’d be an opportunity from 3pm to 4pm for shorting GDX overnight. I felt the pattern looked like it was predicting a little more upside in gold — and a GDX bounce in the morning that likely will not exceed yesterday’s high — that is the shorting opportunity I will be monitoring for Thursday morning.

    Goild’s comment, btw, included obeying candles and an equal measure of self-control. I always admire his civility.

  26. zkotpen

    Goild,

    “Unless you are gifted it may take 5-10 years before you can make real money.”

    I am about to enter year 5 on this trajectory. Got my exploded appendix removed (didn’t die, thank God!) in Quetzaltenango Private Hospital in August, 2012. Got back to the lake the following weekend, and commenced trading. So mid-August will be 5 years for me.

    I hope to be on the early side of your 5-10 year window of “figuring it out”.

    That 5-10 year period is the Hamburg for any avid enthusiast, what lifts them into the level of the pros — making real money — if they put in the effort.

    Good trading to you bro!

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