125 thoughts on “IT’S TIME TO TEST THE LOWER TRIANGLE TREND LINE

  1. Clarence

    Gary, where do you see silver hitting (approx) at the bottom of the ICL ? Gold is relatively unscathed, but silver has come off sharply.

    1. Gary Post author

      I base everything off of gold. When gold bottoms the rest of the sector should bottom as well. So where ever silver is when gold reaches the lower trend line then that’s where I would start buying.

      1. Clarence

        If you call the bottom as perfectly as you called the top, we should all be set. I’m 100% cash. Although I am tempted to play that DCL bounce……..

        1. Gary Post author

          It would be safer to play the short side once the bounce comes and ride it down into the ICL.

          Going long on a third or fourth daily cycle is very dangerous. I’ve seen several cycles top on day 2 or 3.

          1. Robert

            Going long silver should be a bit safer? Its much more oversold than gold and miners

          2. Gary Post author

            I would argue there is no such thing as a “safe” long trade when the metals are in the declining phase of their intermediate cycle.

            The “safe” trade is to wait for the ICL and then go long when everyone is bearish and I’m the only one telling traders to buy.

  2. JJHarmen

    Gary, your analysis makes sense. But, what if gold does not stop at the trend line and breaks down? Would that signal an end to the bull market?

  3. JJHarmen

    The stock market is not being allowed to correct. Even the slightest decline is met with buying. I am glad got out of my shorts when I did.

  4. primetime

    Only a move below the Dec. low would signal the end of the bull. –Gary Savage

    In my mind it would mean there never was a bull market or baby bull and a lot of experts were wrong again. “Greatest bull market of our lifetime:” The old bait and switch. Not that they ever really knew either way, more of an educated crap shoot on their part. They seem convincing, simply because they repeat it so many times, eventually even they start to believe it.

    According to this analysis, this bull is going to be running on thin ice.

    1. Gary Post author

      ????

      You’re acting like gold has already dropped below 1050.

      This is the kind of sentiment we need to see at DCL’s and even more intense at the ICL.

      Emotions will take over and all traders will be able to see is downside forever. That’s when I’ll be buying again.

  5. Don

    It’s interesting how the most recent tops of crude oil and gold coincided with that of the dollar. So much for that correlation. Of course, what it really means is that oil and gold have been weak enough to negate the benefit of the lower dollar.

  6. Don

    Ok, I am going to be the first one to say it. Ped, please come back and fill this blog with your pearls of wisdom. You are missed. Yes, most often it is just long winded rubbish but you are definitely worth having here for the entertainment value alone. Say something clever.

  7. MegaMind

    Looks like miners are getting ready to bounce higher for their 4th daily cycle… potential 10%

      1. Christian

        Agree — Gold is consolidating. A break below the 200DMA and a tag of the intermediate trendline is likely, unless investors get spooked over the next few days.

  8. roadrunner

    I am with Don on having Ped posting. I actually enjoy his posts. Whether one agrees with his analysis or not, is not important. Ped at least makes his case for his thoughts. So what if they are two or 3 paragraphs long. if your not interested, just skip it. i would prefer to read a variety of opinions/analysis. I think it is good to have contrary analysis as it challenges those who take another position to judge their own biases.

    Gary, on the last couple of threads, you challenged some posters to post a copy of their real time entry’s and exits.. Why? You don’t do that. so why should anyone else? and saying you post them on your premium site doesn’t cut it. i could post the same things you do however as we both know there is ZERO real money at risk. So , Gary, when you say you entered a position, say lkie we went 100% in the stock portfolio at a certain price., to have any credibility people should want to see the time stamp from YOUR account. let us all see the time stamp where you put 100% of the metals portfolio, which according to you is over 150K into one Dust trade. And if your subs are doing the same with similar amounts of money (because you all are makng ridiculous money according to you) that would be huge orders entering the market. 200-500 subs x 150, 000. plus on one trade, is millions. as well there would be large volume spkikes at the time you and the subs entered but i have never noticed that, not that i check every trade though.
    But frankly I know that doesn’t happen. in your account or in 90% of your subs accounts.

    1. Gary Post author

      “Why? You don’t do that.”

      Oh yes I do. All of my trades are entered in real time and recorded on the premium website. Any subscriber can vouch for that.

      I’m one of the very very few newsletters who actually make real time calls, both entries and exits. 95% will never stick their neck out like I do. They’ll give you 4-5 alternate counts so they can claim a perfect track record. We all know who I’m talking about. But he’s not the only one. Virtually all newsletters cover their ass with alternate views.

      Not me.

      It’s what makes me an easy target for the trolls. When I make a wrong call it’s right there for everyone to see. I don’t give myself the luxury of picking an alternate strategy and then claiming victory.

      1. roadrunner

        I am NOT questioning your past trades, right or wrong. no one is perfect and no one should expect you to be perfect. And I do realize other blogs post alternate scenario’s, but again that is not the question. If you post these trades in real time on your premium site, then you could easily post a past example of a trade with a brokerage time stamp. Surely there must be many closed trades over the years where you could show a brokerage time stamp this, Whether the trade was a winner or not. You can’t ask other posters to post brokerage time stamps where they are using real money, unless you are prepared to do the same. That was my question.

  9. Bigdaddy

    Don, Our BKX has no volume and oil is getting crushed. I am considering selling and breaking even on the trade. Any opinion ?

  10. Don

    BD: I was actually considering buying more but I think you need to sell. You are impatient and want fast results with your trading. Long term waiting obviously is a frustration for you. I bought the stock because insiders were buying and the balance sheet is clean. If and when oil turns around, it will do well. I can wait years, if that’s what it takes.

  11. Bigdaddy

    I can wait also. I just thought maybe it could be bought back at a lower price so why hang on to it now with oil falling.

  12. BestOfLuck

    Gary,
    “I’m one of the very very few newsletters who actually make real time calls, both entries and exits. 95% will never stick their neck out like I do. ”

    Be careful with that proud statement.

    Very few newsletters, like yours, also bankrupt back in 2015 and then restart the new portfolio FRESH, as if you never traded pre-2015.

      1. Gary Post author

        What they don’t want you to know is that the winning trades have far outweighed the losing trades and our stock and metal portfolio just keep climbing higher and higher.

        One can post anything they want on the internet. It doesn’t matter whether it’s the truth or a lie.

        1. samhell

          That is true Gary.
          However, a lot of the statements are backed with facts.
          This one shows you terminating the model portfolio?
          https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Zv9upAVrFpc/WPrhdS_aC2I/AAAAAAAAAvA/a_znCd22UowB5-htKVXgCKQ0IDC7zKIRACEw/s1600/8.JPG
          and then you claim it has been running for 2 years?
          https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0IkaGMb5q7k/WPrqSOkO8EI/AAAAAAAAAvY/FUB6qlI-jdEww0i9PNSAj7GF6IuCUmO0ACLcB/s1600/6.JPG

          I think this is not the case of cyber bullying you are suggesting.

          1. Gary Post author

            Again what they don’t want you to know is that we didn’t make any trades after I briefly suspended the portfolio’s. So the record is accurate.

            Frankly I got tired of handicapping myself. I was making real time trades so that every losing trade I had the trolls would jump all over it and ignore the winning trades. But no other newsletters ever have the balls to make actual real time calls, so they can always claim to have a perfect record.

            Until these guys start running a real time portfolio and put their asses on the line they will remain nothing more than trolls with an agenda. And their agenda has nothing to do with facts.

          2. Gary Post author

            The biggest critic and hypocrite is the duck character. At the top in Dec. he bought what he called long term positions in energy service stocks because the gold:oil ratio favored oil. Now those positions are down 25%. Anyone using leveraged based on his call would be down 75% or more.

            So apparently he’s no better than me. He has losing trades just like the rest of us.

            But do you see me starting a website to advertise his losing trades?

            No of course not. I’m not an imbecile like him. I have better things to do with my time.

          3. Gary Post author

            Again he doesn’t bother to include the rest of the story.

            I never denied making that bad trade. We tried to catch a short term long position late in an intermediate cycle and got caught when the cycle topped on day 3.

            What he doesn’t want you to know is that we stopped out when gold dropped back below 1275 (roughly $13 on JNUG) and then re entered at the bottom at $6.86.

            So we easily made back all those losses and then some. The metal portfolio is higher now than it was at the summer top.

            Now you see why I’ve been saying we got the last laugh, and are laughing all the way to the bank? 🙂

          4. samhell

            Gary I respect your right to defend yourself.
            But there are 9 screenshots showing you repeatedly asked people to buy JNUG.
            https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ly55MYRpx9Y/WIisW9hxoLI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/srFNUlmknbYy4ahSIRERAF82ls6kD-g1gCLcB/s1600/4.jpg
            The actual trade of JNUG buy and sell is missing from your spreadsheet. Coincidence?
            If your spreadsheet as you claimed to Ralph was running for two years there would be trades before that, yes?
            I spent the last 4 hours and some hours last night reading through his blog and I have to admit he/she has done a fantastic job of documenting your trades.
            I for one will not be subscribing to you as I do not believe anything you say.

          5. Gary Post author

            Apparently you can’t seem to understand me, or choose not to. I’ve never denied the poor trade. Get that through your head. Duck and his ilk want people to believe I’m trying to hide that trade. I’m not, and never have.

            That trade cost us a 50% loss.

            What you seem to want to ignore, the same as duck and the rest of the trolls is that we easily recovered that and much more during the next intermediate cycle.

            Is it really that hard to understand?

          6. Gary Post author

            It’s pretty clear you have an agenda you want to push and are either Duck or someone like him.

            The score board is the bottom line. And ours just keeps grinding higher.

  13. JJHarmen

    BestOfLuck, don’t be so harsh with Gary. Look at how well his new portfolio is doing.

    1. waverider

      Perhaps a disclaimer Gary, terminating recommended portfolios when they go against you would forwarn subs. Most everyone has moved on and you’re back to avoiding third cycles but……not forgetting last fall.

  14. JJHarmen

    Gary, have you been stopped out of ERX a second time? Energy stocks have been performing very poorly.

    1. Gary Post author

      Still sitting on the sidelines waiting to see if oil will generate one more leg down into a deeper YCL.

  15. cazabrujas

    Hey Guys, for several days I have noticed that exactly at 3:58pm both senior and junior miners sell off significantly on big volume. I believe this means the big boys are gradually unloading bc they are expecting lower prices in the near future, but I would interested in your opinions (especially Gary’s) on this peculiar behavior. Thanks!

    1. realtrader

      My 2 cents. I am not in miners, but I have noticed something similar in the stock market sometimes. Originally I thought, it must be the market makers who built positions along with the rising prices during the day then dumped right before the close. But now I think it makes more sense to believe it’s actually the mutual fund redemption. Mutual fund investors can place buy and sell orders before the close, and the funds can figure out the net redemption amount if any, and sell right before the close.

  16. primetime

    From a dumb donkeys amateur perspective, I would say they done sold off long ago!

  17. Don

    For about a week before the stock market launched (after the French election), I noticed it was selling off in the final few minutes of each day only to recover the next day. So, what did the selling mean? I the realtrader may have provided the most likely explanation.

  18. Goild

    Hi guys,

    Hope you are making good money.
    Ped’s presence is missed.
    We will see what happens tomorrow at 2:00 PM after the FOMC.

  19. espresso

    Looks like lower trend line of megaphone would be about 1170 or 1175. But whatever… back up the truck then I guess.

  20. LiesandDamnLies

    Gary Thanks for the post.

    I’m working on a sequence of events not too dissimilar from yours but different timing and intensity. I have gold falling into the third week of May and then turning up. I think the the SM rally will top about the same time. Not sure that gold will hit your bottom blue line this time, maybe only down to around 1200 level.

    I have gold running up into early July where I think that it will kiss you upper blue line.

    If the above sequence plays out then I have it falling to kiss your bottom blue line in the last weeks of August.

    Then a very nice bull run into early 2018 with a two good dips along the way ( the second will more than likely be a SM Santa rally in late December).

    Lets see how it plays out.

    cheers Lies

    1. tulip

      hes had his own site for months… surf city
      theres also .. gold tent paradise TA…

  21. dboz

    Unless silver reverses course today, the GSR is saying that we are coming down very hard very fast in PM’s. There is no bull market in metals or miners. Silver is toast and gold will follow. Silver looked like a double bottom but it went through the last support like a turd down the toilet. 15’s are the next line of support. I doubt it will matter.

    All economic indicators say this economy is toast, yet the markets barely budge and the metals crater, even with the dollar in the 98 range.

    I don’t even care any longer. At some point you just have to admit to being wrong and move on.

    The BEAR market in PM’s and miners marches on strong. The oversold conditions last for months, the overbought conditions last for days. Lower highs and lower lows. There will be no trend line breaks except the bottom of the triangle. That one is sure to give way.

    Gold and silver waterfall declines…….again.

    1. jskauai

      “Gold and silver waterfall declines…….again.” That will signal time to start buying Silver American Eagles ….again!

  22. Christian

    For those of you crying over the loss of Pedestrian’s incessant (often arrogant) ramblings: I doubt we’ve seen the last of that little gnome but in the meantime…

    PLEASE GET A LIFE or at least a hobby 😊

  23. percypickles

    Gary I must say you come across as very patient. From what I can see overall we are in profit which is why most people are here. To set up and create what they did just really shows they have more time on their hands than most of us. Obviously they are not doing that well as someone who was would not have all that negativity around them. Keep up the good work

  24. Don

    Christian, every site needs to have a resident arrogant a-hole. Now we are missing that special someone. I know he will be back after. His ego will not allow him to be quiet for long.

  25. Don

    Looks like the PPT is allowing the American stock market to cool off a little this morning. They must be too busy jacking all the other major world markets. The European markets have been soaring. Even the Greek market has been on a roll.

  26. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Does the current cascade constitute a “Bollinger Band” crash in gold?

  27. z3r-0

    Silver is coming close to tagging the december trend line. Are we expecting this to break? Could silver break the December lows?

  28. dboz

    At this point I see no reason for the silver plunge to stop. IF things don’t reverse today it will get worse.

    1. Dday

      Had a quick look at the silver weekly, so far we are in week 3 of a fall, back in 2014 silver fell 12 weeks in a row, with a brief pause at week 6. So yes it could keep falling.

      1. jskauai

        Looking at a weekly chart for silver it appears that silver is in a triangle and is on it way to test up line drawn from the Jan. 16 low to the Dec. 16 low. In it current trajectory it should touch it around $16.40. I will be watching how price reacts here.

  29. JJHarmen

    Now that I have covered all my short positions, the stock market is now free to take a fall.

  30. JJHarmen

    Kinross had a good earnings report. Maybe we might see more of that in the gold sector.

  31. Goild

    The slippage rats are so hungry and greedy that it is very hard to make money scalping.
    Two, three points on 2K-5K JNUG shares
    Now I am changing gears and trade “A la Pedestrian.”

    Good trading to all.

  32. Don

    Apple, Amazon and Facebook are all taking a hit today. Money is looking for a home and now pushing Google towards another all time a high.

  33. matrix

    Gold tagged the 200 week sma., and bounced. Silver leading down means gold may have to go lower.

  34. Don

    Apple produces almost nothing in the US, only sales, Facebook and Google produce pretty much nothing at all and Amazon is destroying American retail and jobs by selling Chinese made goods to American consumers looking for a better price. It is these four that have driven up the stock market and yet the Americans have almost non-existent GDP growth.

  35. dboz

    Have we bottomed in miners or is this just the edge of the plank before they go over board?

  36. Don

    GOOGL just made a fresh all time high, now up 6% in just five trading days. That is quite a feat for a stock that is nearly a thousand dollars per share. A bubble for sure.

    1. dboz

      I agree, Bill. Very discouraging and disappointing. Nothing bullish on that chart.

  37. dboz

    Thinking we have some short squeeze action going on KGC and EXK today. Let’s get em all running.

  38. Steffmeister

    Gary was inspired by my work, the infamous mother-baby wave pattern without a father 🙂

    https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/612972#comment-612972

    We have arrived at an interesting time, Mr Merlin showed us a chart from the mid 50.s. A brutal gap up breakout in BP, oil back then had the same poltical and fundamental qualities as gold has today. What would cause such an event? A Marine le Pen victory or a war in middle east or north korea perhaps.

    However I do prefer a midsummer low.

  39. GMoney

    I shorted some miners yesterday. So what happens today? Gold down $9.00+ and XAU up. Go figure.

  40. Bigdaddy

    Oil is bottoming. I think it’s time to buy oil stocks and ETFs and forget about gold miners. I bought more oil stock a few minutes ago.

  41. cazabrujas

    So glad we are past this FOMC unpleasantness. I can now relax let my short work for the rest of the week.

  42. Goild

    JJ

    Today I was able to time a few times the spikes after 2:00 PM and made money for several lunches.
    Though in the morning I was down more than $3K. Nice relief.
    Good trading to you and all.

  43. Goild

    Here are a couple of spike trades. I am surprised I did well in such tough moments. Luck helps.

    JNUG FILLED AT $17.5802 Market Sell 3000 at Market Day 02:01:50 PM
    JNUG FILLED AT $16.7473 Market Buy 3000 at Market Day 02:00:26 PM
    JNUG FILLED AT $16.8502 Market Sell 3000 at Market Day 01:58:39 PM
    JNUG FILLED AT $16.7297 Market Buy 3000 at Market Day 01:58:02 PM

  44. Goild

    BD

    I also added to my USL position for 4K shares.
    Hopefully we will have a nice ride up.

  45. Goild

    The miners are very resilient.
    The JNUG spike to $17.6 says a lot of people are ready to board the bandwagon.
    Once GOLD hits $1240 there might be a good opportunity to load 3X miners.

  46. bill

    Where are you folks seeing these spikes? looks like a fade to red to me…EXK is a solid winner so far but even that has now faded…

  47. Gary Post author

    How many people are wishing they had listened when I called the top a couple of weeks ago?

    The same amount that wised they had listened when I called the bottom in December…

    And the same amount that will wish they had listened when I call the bottom in June 🙂

    1. cazabrujas

      I didn’t listen before, but now I will be listening when you call the next bottom. it’s going to be epic. It is so much better when you complement you analysis with sentiment.

    2. waverider

      We’re all wishing you would stop beating that I’m right you’re wrong drum😎 Long jnug

  48. Goild

    The JNUG spike topping at $7.6 was a trap.
    A lot of pain was inflected in the gold bugs.

  49. Robert

    Gary no daily cycle low again? Its like it will extend out even longer. Unreal not even a bounce

    1. Pedestrian

      LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!! Tough luck Donny boy.

      Idiot gold bugs smashed like rag dolls on the pavement one more time. You are all so arrogant and deserving. Six years into a bear market and you damned fools keep telling everyone its a new bull. Well this bull stinks so bad I can smell it all the over to the next State.

      You want to hear the funny part?

      I never made a penny of this most recent decline. It was because I was unsure what was happening and decided to just stand aside and wait. Now you want to hear the good news…? My metals account is all in cash and I never lost a cent either.

      LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!

      Feels good eh Christian? (sure does to me!)

      1. Gary Post author

        Still a bull market. It’s doing exactly what I said it’s doing. It’s consolidating in a triangle basing pattern as the stock market enters its final bubble phase. As more and more traders start to recognize the bubble, money will slowly start to leak into gold as a hedge for when the stock bubble bursts and central banks resume, or intensify their QE programs to try to reflate. The next time though it will just reflate gold.

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