THE EASY MONEY IS IN THE STOCK MARKET

Folks, I can’t stress this enough. The easy money over the next year or so is going to be made in the stock market. Allocate most, if not all, of your capital to that sector if you want to have a lot more money in your account by this time next year. I would only use “play money” for metal, energy and currency trades. Serious money has to be reserved for the stock portfolio trades.

There are two periods where traders can make a lot of money fast. One is at the very beginning of a bull market (the baby bull), and the other is at the very end of a bull market (the bubble).

Stocks have entered the bubble phase of this bull market.

Not only do we have the bubble phase forces pushing stocks up but we also have PPT protection during the Fed rate hiking cycle. Let’s face it, there’s no way the government is going to let the market suffer any serious correction during the rate hiking cycle.

Just keep repeating this over and over. Nasdaq 10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.Β 
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371 thoughts on “THE EASY MONEY IS IN THE STOCK MARKET

  1. Gary Post author

    I see Avi is at it again. Quoting me in one of his articles. It wasn’t long after he did this the last time that we racked up huge gains in the metal portfolio making back all of our earlier losses on the early Sept. entry and making him look foolish. I would say you can probably use Avi as a contrarian indicator. When he quotes me in one of his articles it’s time to buy an SMT subscription because we are about to make some good money. πŸ™‚

    Of course what he fails to mention is that I’ve been bullish on stocks since the 2016 bottom. And exceptionally bullish since the Nasdaq broke out above the 2000 high. I said all along that the drop in 2015 and 2016 was not the start of a bear market. It was the 7 year cycle low and would set the stage for the bubble phase to come

    But make no mistake this is the final bubble phase. So at some point once the parabola becomes mature one has to just say enough is enough and get the hell out of stocks so they don’t get caught in the crash.

    We should at least see one of the indexes trading 50% above it’s 200 DMA and rally at least 80-100% in a year or less before the bubble pops.

    1. Gary Post author

      I only buy index ETF’s. QQQ, SPY, DIA & IWM.

      I would also like to include XBI but you just never know when Trump might say something to beat on the health care industry and trigger a big sell off in the sector.

      1. Christian

        It’s all about diversification. Had you kept a core position when we were trading biotech in the Spring of 2016 you woulda done quite well. XBI has been moving up steadily 😊

        1. Gary Post author

          We made a nice chunk of money on the biotech trade. But when Trump started beating on the sector as well as Hillary I got nervous about trading the sector.

          You just never know what stupid idiotic thing politicians will do next. They could actually destroy our future if they change laws that limit capitalism ability to work in the health care industry.

          This is the sector that will eventually cure our debt problems if left alone. The biotech industry will radically change health care in the coming decades making Social Security, Medicare and Medicade obsolete.

      2. ras

        If one can stomach volatility, it would be tqqq. There would be draw downs and profit taking events even in bubbles. Actually, folks who played kold have down as well as folks playing tqqq.

      3. ras

        I have not given up on dust. Once $gold begins to roll over, one could do just as well in dust as in tqqq. iwm and tna and midu have been under performers so far. I would stick with etfs like tecl and tqqq having exposure to the leading fang stocks and isrg, etc. This may not be as easy a ride as your statement implies. There will be jarring profit taking events along the way.

  2. Ralph Wiederzane

    Lol, Gary might end up being correct, but when I start hearing that I am going to make “easy money” , its usually not time to get involved. I recall hearing about “easy money” some of my friends were making in real estate flips back in 2007, just before they lost everything.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Another time everybody was making “easy money” was 1999 in the internet stocks bubble, before many went to zero. Maybe this time will be different, but I have not seen people make and keep the easy money, they usually lose not only the profits but their original capital. Not so easy, after all.

      1. Gary Post author

        At some point one just has to say enough is enough and get out and stay out. That’s exactly what I did with my real estate investments in the spring of 2005. I was a little early but I didn’t get caught in the crash. And the few people that heeded my warnings and did the same have been thanking me ever since.

        But it doesn’t make sense to stay out before the parabola phase even gets started…

        1. GMoney

          Gary you have made some good calls but my model says 6500 tops for the Nasdaq in 2017. I’m willing to wager a case of Becks or Heineken on this.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ll take that bet in a second. The magnitude of that breakout in the Nasdaq above the 2000 high at 5231 is huge. There’s no way that thing is going to stop at a measly 6500. 10,000 will be a piece of cake and 20,000 is probably more realistic.

            The longer and deeper a consolidation the bigger the bull market it generates. That was a 15 year breakout. No one right now can imagine how far this will go, and don’t forget central banks have printed an unimaginable amount of currency units to drive it.

  3. Don

    Gary, I will give you credit for being bullish on stocks over the past few years. Bravo! Maybe the stock market is the niche you should be concentrating on instead of gold, crude, currencies, and, well, just about everything else. Stick with what works for you and clearly, the stock market is your best success story. (Yes, I know you got a gold call right back in early 2016)

  4. primetime

    “This is the sector that will eventually cure our debt problems if left alone. The biotech industry will radically change health care in the coming decades making Social Security, Medicare and Medicade obsolete.”
    —-Gary Savage

    Gary,

    I don’t think you understand health care.

    It is big business, with bigger profits, and even bigger fraud and waste at the expense of middle class America. This is the sector that will continue to bankrupt America.

    Ever heard of overpriced prescription medications, over-utilization, unnecessary surgeries, kickbacks, adverse drug interactions etc? Ever paid attention to health insurance premiums and the burden on the middle class and small business?

    1. Gary Post author

      Neanterthals resisted when Cro magnon man emerged.

      Bronze swords makers rebeled when steel was discovered.

      The whaling industry lobbied against oil.

      The buggy and carriage industry fought to supress the auto mobile.

      The concept is known as creative destruction, and it’s necessary for the advancment of the human race.

      And it will occur in the health care industry no matter how hard the industry resists, because it has to.

  5. m0ntana

    Gary,
    Is it safe to buy oil stocks here? $BPENER has not been this low since the January of 2016.
    Fundamentals and technicals both look ugly.

  6. jacob2

    Gary, a couple of thoughts:

    (1) RE your capitalism creative destruction or out with the old in with the new metaphors : Neanderthal – Cro-Magnon, buggy whips – autos. Gold -bitcoin? The big April/ May run up of bitcoin was because Japan ok’d it’s use as legal tender and Austria established the first national bitcoin bank. Can other countries be far behind? The Nasdaq may not be the only thing going to 10,000. Mostly a skeptic about the cryptocurrencies but I could be wrong.

    (2) YINN China 3x. Emerging markets are like the U.S. SM on steroids and China is emerging markets. Overbought like everything else started selling QQQ and adding more YINN. Like the chart and risk/reward better then QQQ:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36521027734

  7. Gary Post author

    Folks we are into the bubble phase of the bull market. Intermediate cycles will be right translated. The current cycle is only on week 10. It’s not likley to top for at least another 5-8 weeks and intermediate sentiment is dead neutral at 56% bulls. Intermediate rarely ever top until sentiment surpasses 70% bulls and even 75-80% bulls.

    Anyone trying to call a top this early clearly has no idea how markets work. Any kind of pullback in the weeks ahead is a buying opportunity, not an intermediate top.

  8. Bill in Tokyo

    Completely agree w/Gary on this thesis, to be long S&P.

    So again I’m still just a paper swing trader, and have been long (in/out) QQQ all year so far, the last swing since 22 May.

    I have another pos in GLD, but it’s not up much, so by now I think I would have closed it out, and bought more QQQ. GDX, GDXJ are still on sell signals for me, but I wouldn’t short.

    YTD stats
    ————–

    – QQQ is up 21%, DIA 8%, 10%, and IWM 4% – why even mess w/anything but QQQ
    – GLD is up 11%, GDX up 9%, but price action is in a weekly triangle
    – XBI is up 20%, but it’s been very volatile – QQQ has the same alpha, and is much steadier so far

    I don’t believe in diversification. I pick the leader and go w/it. I mainly focus on QQQ and GDX.

    For gold, I just hold physical, not GLD, and don’t trade it. It’s insurance. For trading GDX has the alpha.

    ——-

    So Gary, how’s the climbing? What are you doing lately (smear, crack, top rope, muilti-pitch, granite or sandstone, etc.), and how’s that leg of yours? Does it feel close to your other leg, w/regard to your foot on the rock, how it feels? Tell us about climbing!

  9. Steffmeister

    Interesting times, I remember a chart from an Italian analyst, it’s several years old but it predicted a blow off top at or around 2018. He is a Gann student. I will try to find it.

    Yes, if you look at Nasdaq and QQQ it’s in a powerful wave 3 up, that will end late June/early July, then a major correction followed by a final 5th wave up. After that I do not know … maybe a multi year correction!?

    Good call by Gary and the Elliott Wavers if this plays out, the big cycles has already turned down, the jury is still out.

    1. Gary Post author

      Name me one time on here when anyone other than me was bearish at a top or bullish at a bottom.

      Charts never tell you when tops or bottoms are about to occur.

      At tops the charts always say the market is going higher. In April everyone was telling me that gold was going up. I told everyone that gold would top sometime early in that week. It topped on Monday.

      Back in December every one that’s bullish now was telling me there was no way gold was ever going to rally and it was going back below $1000. Well we know how that played out.

      If there is anything we’ve learned it’s that everyone is always wrong.

      We’re just waiting for the dollar to form it’s intermediate cycle low. It’s 5 months into the decline and due for a bottom at any day.

      Gold needs at least one failed daily cycle before the ICL can be complete. Even during the baby bull the May ICL completed a failed daily cycle.

      1. zkotpen

        I am “almost bearish” on gold at present. Maybe one more push up to the 1286 area or so? Not sure. USDJPY looks like it has another push down, though I can’t tell how far.

        So for now, looking to get long USDJPY, if that market does what I think it will.

        Will also look for opportunities to short miners on their intraday or wiggle moves, if/when those scenarios line up.

        1. Gary Post author

          Well according to you the death cross on the gold chart was the beginning of the end back in December. I disagreed and said gold had started a new bull market.

          Did the chart spot that bottom for you?

  10. Jacob

    I don’t think you even read what others are saying Gary. If you did you would know The majority on here are bearish gold right now (just like you). I really hope your all wrong. I understand graphs are important, but all you traders completely discount global events. I can’t see how stocks fly right now without central banks going (extra) crazy. They can’t do that without a shock first. I certainly am waiting for a Zimbabwe event, but shit has to go haywire first.

    1. zkotpen

      My take on any sort of game is: Probability assessment, risk management, and strategy.

      Try bouncing your prognosis off of that — if you can figure out all 3, then go for it!

      If not, you are likely to lose money or underperform.

      You likely have a different way of getting there than I do. Toss a coin if you like.

      But if you don’t have some way of arriving at your probabilities, risk control, and strategy…

  11. zkotpen

    ras,

    Are you watching any of the currency pairs?

    I see you mention DUST above. You can see where I stand on miners — almost bearish. At what point do you take the DUST trade?

    I plan on my first Forex trade being long USDJPY — if it does as I think it will.

    1. ras

      Hi, Z. just keeping an eye on currency pair usd/yen, does not have the time to go beyond that. Cycles are difficult, even experts get it wrong. Sentiment works very well only at major extremes, in between not so well. I rely mostly on price and inter market moves. Unless $ gold begins to roll over, I am not interested in pms until stocks and underlying commodities move in sync. I am not interested in catching the exact bottom. It is enough to be close. Similar approach to energy sector.

  12. bluelagoon

    RAS – I like your strategy – it makes practical sense. I’m assuming you are using daily or longer timeframes to ascertain whether something has “rolled over”?

  13. bluelagoon

    UGAZ is heading up this morning – thinking it will hit at least $15 today. Great deal for anyone who was able to get it for $13.50’s in premkt – it’s now $14.35. Anyone else see those premkt games being played?

  14. JJHarmen

    No pearls of wisdom from Bigdaddy today. Goild is quiet too, I hope he hasn’t suffered a massive heart attack from all that food he has been eating, all paid for from his daily profits.

  15. MT

    Divergence continues… gold tacking another $3+ but JNUG is in the red. Gold is right around the upper trendline. Unless ‘this time is different’ gold should top no higher than $1290 – 1300.
    MT

  16. Don

    New week and the same old game is in play, Microsoft is up 1.5% today, ensuring another new high for the QQQ. The semi-conductors continue to be the best performing sector. Commodities are going no where. It’s the same playbook that has been in force for years.

  17. felix115

    Gary, it seems your faith in cicles surpasses every other things, geopolitics included…. i mean: what about the bubble phase in the s.m., if a war with north korea tomorrow burst, or with Russia, or a larger middle east conflict, or still a major terrorist attack on u.s. soil…. this events could happen at any moment now…. don’t you agree??

    Andrea.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know of any profitable trading strategy that depends on the end of the world to make money.

      Let’s face it, it can only happen once.

      1. AT

        Unfortunatelly, that was my experience as well in the last few months! However, Gary seems to admit when doing bad trades, which is good … but then he shuts down all conversations if too many people start discussing, or shuts down the portfolios when bad trades were placed, then he resets and started again as nothing happened.

      1. HomerJ

        Slightly higher Gary, wait until your ERX is at break-even before celebrating. BPENER, as bearish as it is at 14.25, has gone down to 0.00 and 2.47 before the last two bounces.

        1. Gary Post author

          I have much longer time horizons than most of you. You guys obsess over every little wiggle. If a trade doesn’t work by the next day you label it a failure.

          Do you think Buffett would have made his billions if he thought like you guys do?

          1. HomerJ

            Pretty sure Uncle Warren started out with more cash than myself.

            In reference to the wiggles, I was responding to your comment about today’s energy sector, which by your definition now should be disregarded as it’s a wiggle.

            True, energy stocks and ETFs have taken repeated punches to the kidneys, they’re now pissing blood on a daily basis. Is it the bottom here? Maybe, but there shouldn’t be a shock if it keeps dropping.

            For the sake of those with limited budgets, unlike Uncle Warren, I do hope it turns up. Mind you hoping, like praying accomplishes nothing.

  18. Bigdaddy

    Good day friends. It is not time to short the stock market yet, so don’t do it. I was reading this morning that the markets are going higher because the world’s economy is improving. Stay tuned for my updates.

  19. Ed

    Something very unsavory stuff is going on gold mining shares. I think with GDXJ rebalancing in progress someone with deep pocket is messing around. I would not surprise if it is VanEck itself . Gold miners are most corrupted bunch of shits on this face of earth. They keep dilute the shares lowering prices while gold prices going up. Someone in SEC need to look at this ETF and see if they follow the rules.
    BTW, I start taking positions in shorting NASDAQ. QID.

    1. Gary Post author

      We’re only on week 10 of this intermediate cycle. Right translated cycles rarely top before week 15. So don’t look for anything other than just short term pullbacks until sometime in July.

      Intermediate sentiment is still dead neutral. Intermediate cycles don’t top until sentiment gets excessively bullish.

      1. Robert

        Still nothing yet from gold and miner. It looks like maybe another week of strength. Maybe not even till end of June before they finally turn down?

        1. espresso

          If gold goes any higher from here, it breaks out of the descending line of the consolidation triangle that has held since July of last year. That is bullish, and I would therefore not expect to see the bottom of that descending triangle touched (~1170) ever again. The next couple days will be the key, imo. Potentially, it could break out by 20-40, then retest the descending triangle from above to complete the rare (but has been seen before) IC which does not make a lower low.

          Any time I see posts regarding a slam dunk (e.g. NASDAQ 10k no brainer) I realize a curve ball is far more likely. We heard this about gold and miners just over 12 months ago, after all.

          And as Gary says, few gold bulls will be aboard for much of the bull. So while many are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a big correction…

          I have a core position myself, trimming close to half in the past few weeks. But I’m not smart enough not to be outsmarted so I keep a core.

          That all said, miners have still seemed anemic compared to gold lately, and I do believe Gary is going to be proved *mostly* right, although I have my doubts about 1168-1170 now. Still possible, though, imo.

          1. espresso

            I meant “ICL which does not qualify as a failed cycle,” that is lower than the immediately previous low which is 1214 or so.

  20. Don

    After a 9 year running bull market (that is not justified by fundamentals), Gary now wants everyone to allocate ALL their money to the stock market for a final bubble phase. That’s a bold and very clear message. This will be the call that defines Gary future as credible analyst. If he is right, he will probably be to busy with talk shows to be bothered with this blog. if he is wrong, well, him saying “I was wrong” just isn’t going to cut it for those who go all out long the stock market, trusting Gary’s skills as an analyst.

    I have no idea if he will be right or wrong. The market is divorced from reality and is heavily influenced by forces that never existed in the past so anything is possible. We shall see.

    1. espresso

      For what it’s worth, a famous market timer on Silicon Investor has been predicting breathtaking highs for a few years now, with a likely correction into this fall, but tens of thousands in the DOW within a few years. He isn’t calling it a bubble phase, but 30-40-50k… he makes people pay for the details but we aint’ seen nothing yet in his opinion. His name is also Don, btw, Wolanchuk, he won market timer of the year in the late 80s a few times. Self serving and cherry picking as are they all, but his bigger picture view has kept me at 100% in equities for the last few years and it has paid off while so many sheep are bleating crash dead ahead.

      IMO Gary is going to be proven totally correct in this arena. I hope so because in my non-miner accounts I am 100% long and have been for quite some time.

    2. Gary Post author

      Heck I earned my stripes a long time ago. When everyone has been calling for a top for years I kept telling people that the Nasdaq was going to test the all time highs.

      Wen everyone said a bear market was starting in 2015 I said it was just a 7 YCL and not a bear market.

      I said once the Nasdaq broke out above the 2000 top it would take off and never look back.

      I’ve been correct on all accounts.

      Give me credit for calls that very few people have made.

  21. espresso

    Gary, I didn’t mean it that way. I give you credit, too… I was responding to someone who thought you were in complete and utter isolation (sounded that way to me anyway). You have been right for a few years in equities. And I think your 7 YCL is spot on.

    I’m a contrarian, however… whenever I see ‘easy money’ it sends up a red flag. But I think it really will be easy if you buy and go to sleep and wake up in two or three years… just don’t watch the way they thrash it around in a way designed to shake you down. Ditto miners…

    1. espresso

      And you are right… there have easily been 10x or 20x as many calls for a crash as for new highs from here. I think your characterization that they are fighting the last bear market is apt. I love seeing all those calls for a crash, because I remember just an isolated sheep or two in 2007 and 2008 (RE) and just about zippo in 1999 and early 2000. Crashes don’t happen when everybody bought popcorn and is watching for it.

  22. Robert

    All these cycle analysts got gold dead wrong this time. If it was really going into a cycle low it would not have gotten so high. Now it looks like 1300+ is very doable. Even if hold heads down soon doubt it will go below 1200

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s not how cycles work.

      What I’ve been trying to tell you is that gold is due to make a lower low before the intermediate cycle is finished. It doesn’t matter where the cycle tops. It’s where it bottoms. That where you want to buy.

      The reason it’s important is that if you know it’s time for a failed cycle into an intermediate decline you know you don’t want to get suckered into buying too early.

      I keep warning everyone that the miners are saying something is wrong. They aren’t following gold higher.

      I said the same thing in April but most chose to ignore me.

      If you have a long time horizon you can buy anywhere as gold and miners are almost certain to be much higher by this time next year. However if you can get them maybe 15-25% cheaper it might not be a bad idea to wait for that period of time when everyone is bearish…just like they are bearish on oil right now.

      The time to buy is when you are too scared to pull the trigger. I would argue the last time we saw sentiment like that was back in December. That probably means if one is patient they will see another period like that, and that’s the time to pull the trigger.

      1. Gary Post author

        Let me say it again though. The easy money is going to be made in the stock market.

        I really don’t know why so many people are wasting so much time and energy trying to trade the metals when there is free money to be had in the stock market.

        1. desertsun999

          Because time and energy pays off for some people Gary. You do the math. I emailed you & told you I was selling my silver position at 18.60. Then I emailed you again at the MFI 40yr low where I entered at 16.10. That is an increase in position of over 20% while QQQ’s went up less than 10% if you were riding that train. I am not saying that was easy money because it wasn’t. That took a lot of research to hit that high & low but look at the payoff.

  23. MT

    USDJPY is a couple dimes away from beginning to close the gap down to 109.44. Gold and USDJPY are highly correlated. I’m guessing that closing the gap will also call the top in gold overnight.

    MT

    1. zkotpen

      MT,

      We are on the same page… see my post above, expecting a push down in USDJPY, and push up in XAUUSD. I didn’t have your gap target for dollar/yen, but have been looking for that final push down.

      That’s been my theme for a few weeks now.

      You’re guessing that closing the gap would occur overnight; I’m guessing that maybe US markets will make the final push in the present move — but that is splitting hairs. Perhaps there’s a push overnight, and the US begins to sell off gold & yen.

      XAUUSD may be the most regular-patterned market in the world, and right now, the correlation with the USDJPY pair is -96% — equal to the positive correlation with XAGUSD, which comes in at +96%

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p27580374779

  24. ras

    tna down. dia and spy flat, tecl,soxl up. split personality sm. gush unable to get up from the floor. dwt printing black candles. some junior pms suddenly perking up. senior pms flat/down. gld/slv heading up. Broad brush statements make good reading, not of much use in practice. Nothing is easy, there is a price to be paid for anything worthwhile.

  25. zkotpen

    Robert,

    “All these cycle analysts got gold dead wrong this time.”

    I didn’t, and Gary hasn’t. I have been calling for more upside in gold in the current daily cycle since the big move above, then backtest of, the 20 day SMA on May 18, nearly 3 weeks ago. The daily cycle rally did not look complete at that time, plain and simple.

    As for miners, well, as I always say, dive in to one of my top 10 favorite movies of all time: The Gold Rush, paying close attention to the morning after the big blizzard…

    Now that I think about it, The Gold Rush was released on June 26, 1925.

    What they heck? If I had to pick a date for the end of the gold bear’s decade move down, that’s as good a date as any.

  26. zkotpen

    Robert,

    Sorry, I got a little carried away πŸ™‚

    But here’s one for you to consider. Pull up a chart of GLD for the past month. Something simple will do, like google finance — no need for your full-blown chart, just quick & simple. Add overlays of SLV, GDX, and GDXJ.

    Take a good look at that chart. Look at the previous link I posted just above, of the gold chart, with correlations to silver, yen, & euro. Check out correlations between GDX and gold on the link below. Look at the rule I posted Friday night, regarding GDX and the USDJPY forex pair.

    Not sure if that will ultimately work for you, but it will at least attempt to resolve some of your concerns over the past 3 weeks or so. My ideas regarding strategy, which is the area I’m trying to develop, with extra emphasis since April 23.

    I believe my charting skills are “above average”. But even if you trade coin flips, you can still make money, if you manage your risk, and have a solid strategy that you adhere to with discipline. Precious metals strategy is tricky, because of the highly irregular correlation between gold and gold mining stocks. But as in The Gold Rush and beyond, centuries and millennia into the past, the allure of the gold miners is always there. With a cool head, it’s reasonable to conclude that USDJPY and SLV charts are much more straightforward than the miners. Less visceral, and we all want to be riding the boat home from the mines in first class, toasting champagne with Big Jim McKay, with the lovely Georgia by our side…

    … but maybe the Asian money or silver is the better route to first class!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p58811078884

    1. Robert

      Yes you did make the correct call for more upside in gold. Boggles the mind this gold price action. Who knows how high gold will go now before a correction or how low after. As for miners I give up

  27. Alexandru Popovici

    USX on day 50 or someting!?
    That would be absurd!

    USX on day 19 continuing it’s expected descent as GBP has entered a new cycle and USDJPY draws to its DCL.

    I add long SPX to my short crude, Natgas and cotton positions. I ride the right translation of Transports that I was talking about last week.

  28. Ed

    WHO ARE BUYING US TRESURY BONDS? THE PRICE OF US TREZURY KEEPS GOING UP. USDJPY HITTING LOWER LOW. Gold hitting higher high.πŸ˜€ i guess Gary’s crowd is MIA again. Yeah wait for ICL . Right.πŸ˜…

  29. zkotpen

    Robert,

    I just added YCL to that comparison chart (can’t figure out how to make an image of it!).

    That’s 2x JPYUSD (the opposite of the currency pair). Lies largely right on top of GLD.

    Trading USDJPY forex we can adjust leverage as high as 50:1, and small trades are possible.

    Only in certain instances can you reliably get a better output on leveraged miners.

    I reckon I’m as stubborn as anybody. But seeing 1 month return on YCL = 3.75% vis a vis GLD = 4.03%, following the same trajectory, while miners are erratic… at this point nothing left… might’s well jump!

  30. Ed

    Looking US treasury bonds going higher high with all known sovereigns dumping US tresury bonds only tells me we have stealth Q E still going where we have a black hole that sucking in all US bonds newly issued and that bonds dumps by sovergns. Who is this blackhole?

  31. Ed

    I think bitcoin hitting over 2800 un_nerves a lot of market participants. USD and BTC has a strong negative correlation. Why parabolic movements in BTC last couple of weeks? Is Yen buying Bitcoins what drives the price higher high of Yen?

  32. Steffmeister

    I think the bear trendline in gold is officially broken, is it only by the tail or do we get a close above?

    A false breakout or the real deal? Looking at my miners most of them are at a very nice buying level …

    Great comment #espresso, “not smart enough not to be outsmarted by the market”
    very true and that goes for most of us, a very smart comment!

    1. Dday

      As long as the divergence in miners persists this move is still topping in my honest opinion. Also silver weakness suggests the move in gold isn’t to be trusted. But agreed by looking at the weeklys that gold and the dollar could have weeks to go before their moves are exhausted…. In summary gold in my opinion is topping, where the exact top is is anybody’s guess.

      Dollar weekly showing oversold, but still room to fall further

      https://invst.ly/4263e

      gold showing the exact opposite

      https://invst.ly/4263-

      If you look at the RSI it shows potentially 2-3 weeks more strength possible…

      1. Steffmeister

        Yepp, gold is running into heavy resistance here 1295-1305 and we got five impulsive waves up in 15m chart.

        I was surprised that my bet in DUST was still in blue with a 0.8% profit, I bought it 3% higher, I think the Swedish crown is devalued πŸ˜›

  33. zkotpen

    Alex,

    Is there any advantage to watching the US dollar index?

    I have no idea, regarding its cycles. It’s on the finviz currencies page. Otherwise, I don’t pay much attention to it. But if there’s predictive value… could be interesting.

    USDJPY’s last daily cycle low was April 17. So that makes today day 36, with a new lower low. Perhaps a daily cycle low today or tomorrow? I don’t know, as I’ve been looking at that pair for about a month.

  34. WYSIWYGN

    if gold first has to go to 1365 before rolling over to its ICL, the miners will have their days in the sun again too (new high GDX above Feb high)

  35. Alexandru Popovici

    Dear Zkot!
    Yes, USDJPY should bottom today/tomorrow.
    Personally I find USX useful – for gold it is obvious but the most obvious moment of correlation with SM was on AUG24 2015!
    Recently USX and broad SM have de-correlated due to French elections (but mind: not with Transport stocks, where correlation has preserved!!).

    If you read john murphy, you’ll see him saying USX and SM being long-term uncorrelated and he is true but also abit superficial: the interesting music lies in short term analysis: the 2 tend to have an underlying common theme (negative correlation 2008-2014 and positive afterwards) which once in about a fortnight changes direction for 2-3 days (like getting a temporary break for a breather before returing to “work” at the main theme).
    the short break usually occurs at report of medium importance: beige book, fomc minutes – but never at a major report such as fomc release or jobs rep.

    if you get tuned w/ this music, you will find it relevant!
    On the other hand, this has been true until pre-French elections and it’s got broken ever since (except Transports)…it is to be seen if the long break is a post-French elections side effect or…something more important, such as SM sentiment getting to next level, into over-heated mood.

    PS: Bitcoin and this USX-SM break may make very good leads of the boom to come that Gary has been preaching.

  36. Alexandru Popovici

    As I commented last week, gold and miners should blast, GDX PARTICULARLY ABOVE 23.67 TO PRODUCE EXPECTED RIGHT-TRANSLATION AND…EXHAUSTION –> a great time to dump your gold and buy stocks while keeping a close eye on Transports! SM has yet to put its YCL, a mild one, buit still a correction which Transports will foretell.

  37. Ed

    So what drives USDJPY lower?
    Weak Dollar, not strong Yen.
    So what drives dollar to weaker.
    Uncertainty.
    1. Reality Winner leaked documents
    2. GB election
    3. Comey’s testimony
    4. FOMC next week. This is going to be a Uuge day for Gold with a rate hike or not

    For Miners, we have completion of GDXJ rebalancing on next week too.
    All stars lining up for Gold shares

    1. Gary Post author

      Any pullback in stocks is a buying opportunity until we get later in the intermediate cycle.

      I’m still waiting for the final bottom in the dollar and final top in the euro. Once it is struck then gold will start the move down into its ICL.

  38. bluelagoon

    I think I was a day or two off – looks like UGAZ is moving to $15 today/tomorrow vs. yesterday.

    Gold looks like it’s staying higher into the Comey testimony Thurs……question is, whether miners will have a big run up or if GDX will top out around high $23’s.

    1. Dday

      Comments like this usually come at extremes, ie when gold was at $1130 it was “gold at a thousand by next week”. In a way you are providing a useful sentiment indicator, Thanks…

  39. Gary Post author

    Most intermediate tops in gold do occur as at least a marginal breakout that traps buyers at the top of the cycle. That’s what I was looking for back in September but we didn’t get it.

    Maybe this time we will and gold will push temporarily above $1300 before rolling over into its ICL.

  40. isavage

    Hey WYSIWYGN

    That’s me your talking about with JDST πŸ˜‰ Yep plenty of blood right now thanks for pointing it out πŸ™‚

    Good news it was my recent hedge for my under water JNUG so have orders in place to exit believing in Garys call of one last pull back. This should swing JDST back to a profit also.

    If we however keep the break out well I will be very disappointed for putting on any hedge, but that F…ing resistance line has be killing me everytime over the last few years.

  41. dboz

    If gold does not reverse today, I think we need to be prepared that we are in launch mode. “In a bull market gold can stay overbought for prolonged periods”. I am now on the wrong side of miners as many are starting to take off and ahead of where I bailed.

    As Gary said most people buy right at the tops so I am remaining patient. This breakout seems strong, miners may soon chase big time. I don’t think a big drop is coming. I am still sitting all cash but seeing the train starting to leave the station here. I did call the dollar bounce to within 2 cents, but it’s weak and gold is still surging regardless. Gold and the dollar could rise together.

    Starting to think I got too cute thinking there was going to be another beat down and great buying opportunity. As it turns out I became the sideline sitter with FOMO who will be the fuel to propel the move above last years highs along with all the shorts. Selling at a loss is not looking good right now.

    Ironic.

      1. dboz

        Because a lot of juniors are up 5-7% today and they were up 1-3% the last 2. So it does not take long to be looking at 10-15%.

        As you know, GDX is only large miners that don’t have as much volatility and contains many laggards.

    1. Steffmeister

      Nope, my wrong footing is changing fast, got stopped out of DUST (-5% loss), now I think of buying my first scale in my favorite miners.

      Remember Argentus Maximus post about a major gap up breakout in British Petrol from the 50’s very much the same chart pattern as gold for many years now.

  42. Steffmeister

    A close above the BEARISH TRENDLINE must be a very significant event imo !!!

    This is what I’ve been waiting for, for 5years now … why not scale in 5 times, now after fomc, midsummer and late summer, early fall?

  43. primetime

    This board is becoming like tits on a bull, worthless.

    All the heavy handed, boisterous ones are being proven wrong daily. The ones who know those charts and technicals baby! Like those in dust.

    BTW where is Christian, he was all over the board and now quite silent.

    It becomes comical, even by caveman standards.

    1. Gary Post author

      In case you haven’t noticed everyone gets trades wrong from time to time. If you get it right 60% of the time you’re doing great.

      This rally has lasted longer than I anticipated. But gold still needs at least one failed daily cycle before I’m willing to call an ICL. So I’m still waiting for another entry into shorts rather than going long right now.

      The FOMC meeting is the next likely re entry point.

  44. Gary Post author

    We got stopped out of DUST today.

    I’ll wait till the FOMC meeting next week before I put it back on. Since the jobs report didn’t turn the trends the FOMC meeting is the next likely trigger event.

  45. chrisG

    Looks like gold is finally waking up. I have said to look at gold in may or June. I did not catch the bottom. I bought few days ago. Was tempted to sell when Gary kept saying gold is dropping . He was even so sure last week is the top. I don’t care, I just use my methods, and also just bought half size. Sure hope it sticks.

  46. JJHarmen

    Gary, after all the noise you have made about the miners and their upcoming date with the Dec lows, why and earth are you not buying DUST now when it is on sale??

      1. Robert

        Weeks and weeks of gold going up with miners not following and all that has changed in 1 day. I think you need a new analysis on gold because no way is it going to 1180 again. Miners are finally catching up

  47. primetime

    Trust me Gary, I have noticed people get it wrong. Been long oil for two months now to prove my awareness, OK. Just hoping someone will provide some insight to get something right soon to make some real money, not measly lunch money.

    Or why bother? Better off throwing darts at the cave paintings.

    So Krudo, oil is my contrarian trade ok, and I am old turkey PM.

  48. Don

    Declining stocks 4050, advancing stocks 2326 The big five are all up and the QQQ makes another record high. The machines are stuck in ‘buy’ mode for the same dozen. or so, stocks.

  49. WYSIWYGN

    well, this ‘watching’ gives a pain in the neck.
    I’m going full in metals & miners NOW
    don’t believe a thing about that ICL anymore

  50. JJHarmen

    Gold has had a nice run up from 1220 and no one here has made a dime. Isn’t that what Gary said always happens in bull markets? Folks, you just have to listen to the man.

    1. Robert

      NO, he has been saying to short or that gold will drop that is why no one has made a dime. Gold has become too difficult to trade best to leave it to professionals. Stock market is easier to make money. I too have been waiting for a dip in miners and now missed out. Even if gold drops its not going to 1170 like Gary has been saying.

    2. AT

      YEP, Gary couldn’t get it more wrong than he did, especially that call not long ago to sell all Gold related turkey positions at 1190 Gold.

  51. Bigdaddy

    I just bought 500 SQQQ at 28.90. I told you guys when the time is right to short and this is it. The QQQ is way over valued and due for a big drop. I am not listening to Gary and missing out on a chance for a big profit. It’s not like he is always right. Just look at gold.

      1. primetime

        In case you have not noticed Robert, none of the BIG DAWGS here ever have loss. Their ego will not allow them to admit it. They have diarrhea of the mouth.

        1. Robert

          Always. I guess Gary is the only 1 admitting to a loss. Lets let it out there, they all got this move in gold wrong. Weeks and weeks everyone saying gold and miners would drop, look now. Its too hard to predict gold anymore, the miners were lagging so long and in 1 day it changes who could have predicted that except die hard bulls? Gary is still saying an ICL is due but I believe it will most likely be a mild one like last May. No one will be on board for the next bull rally because they will all be waiting for a big dip.

          1. z3r-0

            There was nothing stopping you going long at the beginning of this daily cycle. I agree with Gary, it wasn’t worth the risk trying to trade a daily cycle that is supposed to be left translated. Even if we end up needing another cycle after this one, it just wasn’t worth it. I’ll be getting in at the next ICL.

  52. desertsun999

    Most of you would be better off to just take a 50% of your pm portfolio and buy in today. When we get the next cycle low add to the position. Today seems like a breaking point for a lot of people on this board sitting on the sidelines.

    1. JJHarmen

      I have been watching your trade posts and I think you were the only one here that was buying the miners. Congrats! Where do you think the miners are going from here?

    1. dboz

      Seriously, sold out of DUST? I thought he was waiting for the ICL before even thinking about selling? Guess he thinks the train has left the station also?

  53. chrisG

    This dessertsun ask me really???…. Really what???

    Also, what’s the big deal? Bought few days ago meant profits is meager now. Did I say I bought in May low? That would be BS and would mean I made huge $. I think I have said in Feb, that I will look at gold and PMs in May June period. But why I did not long at May lows, and only in late may? Cos I am heavy into stocks and have made yummy. Lazy to look elsewhere. Until recently, couldn’t resist the temptation of the shimmering gold. Lol

    1. desertsun999

      Your post on Friday……..2 days ago
      Omg. I have been lurking around. But now I really have to restart my insults when I just saw the stupidest comment. Is this Desertsun clown. Has the sun burned his brains??? Lol. He’s insulting us here saying SM not in uptrend, Miners are very in uptrend.

      This ought to be the biggest clown. People would have made huge money last few months in the SM. While Miners are zombified. Ya right , Miners are super good. Maybe if you go back since 1900????!!! Lol.

      Peculiar post to make the same day you bought gold but hey CONGRATS!

  54. Ed

    I think I going to my convert GDX position to several indivodial miners. I am looking miners that have
    1. Un-hedged
    2. No share duluting
    3. AISC near $1200.
    4. Good reserve line-ups.
    5. Any miners but -abx-nem and African mines

    Any advices?

    I am thinking I will unload my QID on this Thursday. And start convert all my holding to individual miners. A ‘ll ETF these days becoming scams

  55. WYSIWYGN

    well, folks, I was new on this blog and saying farewell again; this cycle thing does not work, so much is sure; has cost me a lot of money not being in the market

    1. Robert

      Yea I agree, the cycles only work sometimes. It looks like it works better for stocks but no so much on metals. The analysts have prbly gotten it right more than wrong but its the one or 2 wrongs that are very costly especially when your in x3 etfs. Anyone in the inverse gold miners are down big

    2. desertsun999

      WYSIWYGN, hang on for another day. We might have our cycle turn point today. Lets see what Wednesday and the rest of the week brings.

  56. dboz

    Gary says the money is in the SM. Hard to believe that when you can make 8%+ in a day in miners. I am going to wait through tomorrow, if the dollar does not bounce and gold does not pull back, then we could be into a huge move up just like I had been saying.

    Shorts caught, FOMO from sideliners, will be the fuel. Today could just be a short squeeze. We will see if there is follow through. Volume is still not convincing. Not losing faith in Gary’s call yet, but it is starting to look dicey. Miners need follow through tomorrow.

    I had a dollar bottom called for 96.51 either today or tomorrow. Will wait one more day.

    1. dboz

      The miners have patterned themselves to have a nice run up and then taper down into the FOMC meetings. We will see if things drop by the end of this week. If not, miner strength will appear.

      1. dboz

        Yeah, no rush. Still in wait and see. May make another run at JDST tomorrow depending on how the overnight goes. USDJPY starting to shape up on the hourly for some upside. We will see how gold responds.

    2. Bluebellkid

      Volume is still not convincing???? GDX average daily volume is 54.5 mm and today traded 95.4 mm.
      GDXJ average daily volume is 19 mm and today it was 31.2 mm

  57. Don

    Bigdaddy may be right this time. The broad based indexes did not make new highs with the Nasdaq and S&P. I like the value line (VALUA) index as it provides a better picture, in my opinion . That said, the QQQ could continue to ‘walk alone’ onward and upward, given that the machines are programmed to buy primarily only the large cap stocks that are driving the QQQ. I would love to know more more about their programming.

  58. Bigdaddy

    Of course I am right. The stock market is ready for a crash and burn. Can’t you guys see it? better buy SQQQ while it’s still cheap. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

  59. Bigdaddy

    Canadian oils are on the move today. My sources are saying crude is going up. Gary will be right on oil. Forget the miners as they have gone up way too much.

  60. JJHarmen

    The dollar is taking a beating. Where is the “multi-month” dollar rally that Gary was calling for on May 21 that was going to take down gold? I know that eventually the dollar will turn but where will gold be at by the time that occurs?

    1. Don

      The dollar does look oversold but that doesn’t it couldn’t get even more oversold. Currencies are a minefield. There are no cycles, only manipulation by very powerful interests.

  61. theworldwithoutfacebook

    Look at the GDX weekly, higher lows and curling up. Hard to see this just reversing after all the bleeding miners went thru since the highs.

  62. Don

    If I wasn’t so heavily short the SM already, I would be buying SQQQ. The SM is weakening and seasonally, this isn’t a great time for further advances.

      1. ras

        Heavy weights abx, nem and others flying. Juniors like btg, iag, ego, kgc, auy and many others also joining the party. Enjoy the ride while it lasts. Move cycles, sentiment to the back burner for a while. Price is king.

        1. Don

          I had a 100 shares of USLV that I sold moments ago. I had more but sold them and bought ZJG a few days ago. I intend to buy more miners on any dips.

  63. XtR

    Hi everyone! I am short on gold from 1275 and long on Dollar from 96.72…
    Should i stay or should i go? πŸ™‚

    I am a little confused…
    Thanks

  64. theworldwithoutfacebook

    With a close here miners will confirm downtrend broken and Gary will miss the biggest trade of the year, the one we all were waiting for. How depressing, Got killed in energy and missed gold.

  65. primetime

    Christian is sitting there whimpering like a puppy with his tail between his legs holding his blanky and pet rock drinking hot cocoa and eating chocolate chip cookies.

    Pouting and crying and taking a second look at every chart wondering what happen.

  66. Ralph Wiederzane

    Looks like the easy money is being made in metals and miners. You don’t have to buy today, but you better have a buy plan, like. ext pullback, or initiate here with small positions, bc GDX is now trading over its 200 day MA. It might not keep runing from here, but this action will start turning that MA higher. efore long. Bull market back on!

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL remember back in November when you assured me the death cross on the gold chart meant gold was still in a bear market?

        We weren’t in a bear market then and we aren’t in one now. We still need a real ICL correction though. And the dollar still needs a rally out of an ICL.

  67. Ralph Wiederzane

    I can’t believe Gary was short miners via DUST, talk about upside down. It violated one of his firmest rules repeated for years, Never short a bull market.”

    Truly amazing, and he hasn’t even thought about getting long yet, meaning more upside to come as people need to chase now that we’re over the 200 MA. He also did tell us this is what bull markets do, turn you upside down and make you a non believer. Now, if he could just trade his own advice!

    1. Steffmeister

      It was not only Gary, all experts (including the one I subscribe) expected a low during summer and we might still get it, but when gold broke the trendline today I changed direction in a blink of an eye, jumped out of dust and bought my favorite miners.

      Gold&Silver is were my trading hart&soul is that is my passion, so it’s nice to sit on my core position again.

  68. Dday

    Well either Gary’s right and you are all jumping head into an overbought bull trap. Or he’s wrong and he has a lot of backtracking to do. We will see soon enough. Good reading today…..

  69. dboz

    Looks like everyone was on the wait for the pull back and short side of the boat. Everyone everywhere was expecting the same thing. It was too easy that way. Now you either chase or hope for a pullback. Gold could run up very much higher here. Stay overbought for weeks. Dollar could be done.

    Still holding out for my 96.51 dollar bounce by end of day tomorrow.

    Gold could have a false breakout here, but it does not look like it.

      1. dboz

        At 2PM we hit 96.52. Waiting to see if we get follow through tomorrow or if the bulls spent their load today. Everything is overbought, obviously.

        We could see a 15% day right back to JDST tomorrow. I tried JDST when gold peaked this AM but then got stopped out when gold bounced this afternoon.

        Still waiting for confirmation of breakout and not false bull trap.

        Still keeping the faith in Gary.

        1. dboz

          There was decent miner volume today, lots of new bulls to get a rug pull tomorrow. Everyone is suddenly ultra bullish, which could spell bad news.

        2. Robert

          Doubt it. Today is too bullish just reverse and give back everything tomorrow. Gary’s cycle timing and call was wrong. It was supposed to b left translated so now instead it’s going to be RT. Gold is going to have a mild ICL

          1. dboz

            Robert, we have seen this happen multiple times at the turns. Would not be one bit surprised to see a huge down day tomorrow. It could be another up day though. That is the problem when you jump in and out. I should have just rode it out. Selling at a loss is looking like a mistake but will know for sure by the end of the week. Still expecting a currency turn but it is looking very weak again. I agree though, the miners look decently strong today but that means nothing. Spot drops $12 tomorrow and we will see rats jumping off the bull ship in droves.

          2. dboz

            Looking at the gold move in other currencies it looks far less impressive. Other than GOLD in Yen and the Dollar it has not even broken out yet. Not in CHF, RAND, RUPEE or the EURO.

  70. Bigdaddy

    WTF!! QQQ is moving up again. I am watching this closely. I am not going to hang on to SQQQ if it goes against me. I have learned my lessons, keep the losses small and keep the winners for big profits. I read that in an article on the internet. Makes sense.

  71. theworldwithoutfacebook

    The hardest thing to do is play catchup when you miss the breakout. You always feel like you are buying at the top and wind up either getting stopped out or missing the entire move.

    1. JJHarmen

      It is hard. I have been waiting for a pullback in GDX so I could get in and it just won’t back off. Maybe there will be a sell off tomorrow and I can get in at a better price. I don’t believe for a second that GDX will be testing December lows. That was just a stupid rubbish call that Gary made.

  72. Don

    Has anyone been paying attention to the bond market? TLT has been moving up and hit a new 2017 high today. Now we have the stock and bond markets and gold moving up at the same time. Which one is going the wrong way and which one will provide the best returns for the rest of the year?

    1. Bluebellkid

      It’s not how we start the day but how we end and more importantly how we end the week. A little weakness early in the week is fine as long as we close strong.

  73. primetime

    Everyone is waiting for a pull back. It has been said how most will not make any money in the bull because they will not be able to pull the trigger.

    If you think gold is going up just buy and hold it for the long term. Easy concept?

    Gary guaranteed it is a bull market with 500 JNUG.

  74. dboz

    I would be cautious buying here. If you are already long, than continue to hold. Not the time to add new long positions here IMO. See post above about gold in other currencies.

  75. Don

    It is a puzzle why he would break one of his trading rules and buying DUST while at the same time saying gold is in a bull market. Seems a bit sloppy.

  76. dboz

    I doubt we are just going to pull away here and not have a pullback and retest. If that retest should fail, look out, panic selling could set in quickly. By no means are we out of the woods after one good day.

    1. dboz

      Yep, too many are lambasting Gary here. I just remember what Gary always says, too many retail buy right at the top. Today was that feeding frenzy. Retail going crazy everywhere about how we are going to the moon now. May have just bought right at the top. USDJPY just filled the gap from April. Dollar hit my downside target. I would not be getting too comfortable on the bullish side yet.

      1. JJHarmen

        Dboz, you don’t consider yourself to be retail? And what are you doing besides nothing while watching the miners run up? These kind of big up days after a long drought are seldom reversed the next day. That is why I “pulled the trigger” and got in.

        1. dboz

          Yes, I am retail. Miners had a nice run up for sure. I have some FOMO at this point. More frustration. Maybe the dollar will just keep dropping with no bounce. Maybe gold will just keep rising with no pullback. As we saw today in miners, it only takes one day. No one knows where we are heading. That much I am certain. Just so you know, I sold JNUG a few weeks ago for $20.36. So even with an 18% day, it is still lower than when I sold. Nice gain for sure. Split adjusted it puts JNUG at barely $5. We were at $23 last Sept when gold was 13XX. We were at $4 JNUG in Dec. 2016. Just keeping it in perspective here. So plenty of time to get long. Really miner pricing is still way below price levels they were at when spot was at this level last year. Today was a good strong volume day. We need follow through tomorrow though.

          1. DaZeD

            These are some nice comments here. I also have some FOMO since yesterday I also closed out of JDST//GDXJ shorts, but I think that Gary’s views are still very valid here. He earlier stated that the ICL in gold may not come until later in the summer due to the length of the dollar’s ICLs which I interpret as this cycle might be stronger and to be careful with this.

      2. Bluebellkid

        GDX has poked up above the 200 day twice since February and both times the weekly volume was well below average so it shouldn’t have been too big a surprise that the rallies failed. If this move is to have any legs we will need to see well above average volume at the close Friday.

  77. Bob

    It’s interesting, the final daily cycle of the previous intermediate cycle (the one that brought us to Dec ’16), topped on day 19 ((i.e. today in this cycle), lasted 49 days and was therefore left translated.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Do the opposite of that idiot! I lost money cause I followed his advice. Watch out for his snake oil salesman talk! He gets it wrong and then disappears and you lose money.

  78. Bigdaddy

    Ok guys, am I a smart player or what. I nailed it on SQQQ and oil today. I bought another 400 SQQQ in after hours trading at 29.23. That brings me to 900, a big investment I know but it is going to pay off. I feel it in my gut.

    1. Bluebellkid

      The markets are showing no signs of an imminent sell off. Distribution days are at low levels and market leaders and growth stocks are performing well. It’s the middle of the week so a little weakness is not bad – it’s how we close Friday. You aren’t even trying to catch a falling knife so don’t expect any much from your short.

  79. Ed

    The problem of a lot of you guys is you pick pretty good picking tops but late at bottom to buy. Same thing happened here. Now you guys are delima whether you want to buy late and not miss the bull or buy at top where it could be few days of suckers rally. Me ? I usually don’t have that problem because I buy early or never sell.

    1. AT

      Definitely I missed this great Gold move up from 1200 to 1300 listening to Gary’s calls after calls for the ICL which didn’t come .. not yet. Now is too late to get in or chase.
      Is probably better to wait for the next trade opportunity, or add some DUST?

  80. dboz

    Well, maybe Gary will come on and clear up the mud. Did he miss it and admits to get long now or does he still think we are going to turn around and drop. No problem with getting it wrong, if it is wrong, but then fess up and turn the ship around. He may still end up being right. Sure does look like a breakout with power though.

    1. Gary Post author

      This has definitely gone further than I expected. But we still need something that I can identify as a true ICL. At least one failed daily cycle and at least an ABC correction.

      So sitting on the sidelines for now. It’s too late in the daily cycle to chase the upside. The next potential trigger event that could turn the currency trends and generate the cycle top in gold would be the FOMC meeting.

      1. Bluebellkid

        If GDX stays above the 200 day and we see the golden cross and volume comes in well above average come Friday at the close I would say it’s time to jump in. It’s just one day’s action but GDX closed 4 cents off the daily high on well above average volume as in heavy volume.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Read what I am saying – today was a good start to maybe a turnaround in the miners. We need to see GDX close the week near the highs of the week but we need the volume to come in well above average volume to confirm the move.

  81. Bluebellkid

    From IBD’s The Big Picture this evening:
    Gold for August delivery settled at its highest level since November, ending at $1,297.50 an ounce, up 1.2%. The move prompted a 1.1% gainΒ for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). The popular exchange-traded fund closed at 123.03. It’s trying to clear a base with a 123.17 buy point.
    Among gold miners, Royal Gold (RGLD) gained 1.5% to 80.38. It’s working on a big cup-with-handle base.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s usually good when volume is heavy but it isn’t absolutely necessary for a rally to succeed. The entire rally since last summer in tech has been on fairly low volume, but it’s still been quite a strong rally.

      1. Bluebellkid

        I dont use the term “heavy” as much anymore because yes it may not always be heavy. What is most important is whether or not it is above average or below average. AAPL is notorious for making big runs on mostly below average volume.

        1. Don

          Bluebellkid: I didn’t see your reference to AAPl before I made my comment below about Apple being a good example of what volume can mean. GOOGL is another that has made some nice advances on declining volume.

  82. desertsun999

    I don’t we see any fireworks on Wednesday. Dust had a pretty high volume down day. A lot of people got scared out. If anything, probably a inside day tomorrow.

    1. Bluebellkid

      I was talking miners and I haven’t bought anything miner related yet. Come Friday afternoon and I can see how we close then I will make my decision.

      1. Bluebellkid

        I was using CAMT as an example of something that got overbought and has been for many weeks and inferring that gold could do the same thing and keep folks like you on the sidelines.

    2. Don

      How do you see GDX as being overbought? Certainly not on a weekly chart, where it looks like it’s just getting warmed up for on a multi-week run.

  83. Don

    I use a 24 week simple moving average as a rough guide as to which direction a stock or ETF is headed. That average turned up over six weeks ago with GDX now above that average. Unless GDX turns back down below $23, I think it’s a good bet that it will to go much higher.

    Big volume is only a good thing during the initial stages of a rising stock. After a stock has advanced for several weeks, a sudden increase in volume all to often signals the end of the rally, contrary to what most people believe. Check out a weekly chart of APPL for an excellent demonstration of what I mean. generally speaking, big volume is not your friend.

    1. Bluebellkid

      What you are not mentioning is price action. If the sudden increase in volume is during a reversal where the stock makes a new high and then by the end of the day/week is near the lows of the week then that heavy volume coupled with the price action is a classic sell signal.

  84. Don

    Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are all well above their 24 week moving average and have been for some time. The situation is way over ripe for a nasty correction to occur, unless, of course, this time really is different and they are about to enter a parabolic phase similar to what happened in 2000.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Another tidbit from tonight’s Big Picture:
      Ominous signs of institutional selling haven’t been an issue for the market for a while now. The Nasdaq slumped 1.8% in higher volume on March 21. Another sharp decline was when the index lost 2.6% in fast turnover on May 17. In both instances, it didn’t take long for the stock market to recover. When distribution days start to cluster, it can be problematic, but it’s not happening yet. In fact, Tuesday was the first distribution day since that 2.6% sell-off

  85. Bluebellkid

    It’s a certain percentage move down on above average volume and off the top of my head not sure what percentage (1% maybe) – IBD tracks them and keeps up with them. Here’s another excerpt from the Big Picture:
    supplies.
    The bulls like the fact that the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are trading tightly and holding near highs. Leading growth stocks are showing similar action, holding above key support levels. But it’s still a complacent market, and complacent markets can be tricky to navigate.
    Currently, the market landscape is home to many extended stocks, i.e., stocks too late to buy after big price runs. Be careful not to chase. Instead, look for instances of support at the 50-day moving average (on daily charts) or 10-week moving average (on weekly charts). After a growth stock breaks out of a base, the strongest ones tend to show supporting action after a pullback. Pullbacks in light volume and support in heavy volume is ideal, but sometimes it doesn’t always work out that way.

  86. Bluebellkid

    One of the stocks that I own just pulled back to the 50 day for the first time since it’s big run and it found support so that is a good sign of institutional support.

  87. zkotpen

    Folks

    This is the move in gold that I talked about last September.

    If you were here and read what I wrote 9 months ago, I said that wave C of triangle is often a double zig zag. These things are an easier read on shorter time frames, simply because they play out more quickly. But fractals are fractals, and they play out exactly the same on ANY time frame.

    So my next project is to figure out how the whole thing unravels. That’s why I’ve been so hesitant to trade lately: All moves are corrective, they’re all 3’s, zig zags.

    So the question, for me, has been:

    Is it a double zig zag up (wave C, which began in December) or a double zig zag down (wave B, which began last July in gold)?

    It does look like Tuesday has provided the answer.

    And the big trendline break in gold? As I said 9 months ago and several times since: That trendline needs to break to confirm the December, 2015, low. We have had high confidence in that low, but until the trendline broke, it wasn’t confirmed. Now it is — no big deal… the market has confirmed what we already thought with high confidence.

  88. zkotpen

    “the market has confirmed what we already thought with high confidence.”

    In other words, the multi year wave A down in gold from September, 2011, to December, 2015, is complete; the multi year sideways consolidation rally wave B is in progress, likely to be a triangle, but could also be a flat or other complex sideways move. A large zig zag is also possible, but I don’t think it’s likely. At any rate, the multi year rally is corrective in nature: Multi year volatility is contracting, and will continue to contract, until the next impulse move down toward the area of the 2008 lows.

      1. Gary Post author

        I think most billionaires are made by following fundamentals. But that requires a long time horizon and the ability to weather drawdowns for extended periods of time. As we’ve seen almost no one here can weather even a couple of days without freaking out.

        I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. JNUG will be above $500 by the time the gold bubble tops. But almost no one will be able to hang on for the full ride.

  89. Don

    We see commodities as they are traded in US dollars so of course there is a correlation between the Yen and gold. However, that correlation is due to the relationship between the dollar and YEN. The YEN comprises only 13% of the DXY index composition. Given that the EURO makes up 57% of DXY, one would think that the Euro/ gold correlation would be more relevant, however it depends on how much gold is actually traded in a currencies other than the US dollar.

    I like to think gold as being ‘adjusted’ for currency fluctuations rather than the currencies being a driving force. Demand is the key driver and demand will trump a currency fluctuation every time.

  90. zbigkid

    Far easier money is going to be made being in gold. For those of you who have only been listening to Gary, but not doing your own diligence, Gold just punched through a massive overhead resistance declining tops line, dating back to the high in 2011. It has not ever done this in the past 6 years. In fact, it has formed a bull flag preceding this, with a buy signal in the form of its Price Momentum Oscillator. This is all on the weekly chart. Once gold goes up a bit more, then comes down and bounces OFF that declining trend line, there is nothing but blue skies ahead. Similar things can be said for the miners, that are going to support this launch. Too many people are far too worried about looking down, instead of looking ahead and UP ! By the time everyone figures out that the Fed has to start not only easing again, but instigating even more massive rounds of QE than ever before, gold will be trading well above $2500. The idiots speculating on Bitcoin right now, are masking the fact that super large and rich buyers have been and are continually moving into gold. Its been totally stealth while everyone has worried about taking a beating or gold missing out on some sort of silly ICL. You should have been in major accumulation mode for at least the past 6 months, just the physical, and understand that gold is on a major LT buy and IT buy now, and there is no looking back or down from here. The goofiest part is there are tons of people looking to get out of gold when the price hits 1350, 1400, 1500 and so on. Its going to blow through those points like a hot knife through butter. Don’t worry though it ain’t going parabolic like Bitcoin has, but neither will it suffer the death spiral that Bitcoiners will soon endure in spades.

  91. zkotpen

    Don,

    Science is not about the past. Take everything for granted, and you’ve got the status quo. Hard to overcome old thinking — even the compensation for imperfections in status quo is already built in — and taken for granted.

    I will point out two things:

    1. Most science does not blast its way thru ancient and medieval thinking, because the technology doesn’t exist for the original discoverer. Newton was the exception, because he invented the math to back his physics.

    I am awestruck that Elliott was able to do what he did in the absence of the modern computer. In science, you look at the state of affairs of some or other phenomenon, and you say, what’s the problem? Then you propose a possible solution, answer, and/or relationship. Then proceed to experiment, analyze, and conclude.

    2. Assuming 10,000 hours, roughly 5 years, to mastery, I should be at that level by the end of 2020. How long does it take to compile something like a book? I honestly don’t know. I got a lot accomplished on April 23. Thought I’d have all my real time testing done in a week. But my newest development isn’t even one full daily cycle old yet — so even I’m still working to implement it in its first iteration. Finally, most of my work has come during corrective waves. I know that any market is always trending at some degree, so I try to observe trending moves as well as I can, when I see them. Still, it’s not the same as when several fractals are all trending in the same direction, at the same time. Lots of work, which I am more than happy to do πŸ™‚ And gotta pay the bills, which means, developing and deploying a successful strategy toute de suite is the most urgent priority — ah, if only I had the luxury of sitting in a laboratory under the auspices of a research grant — fellow social scientists enjoy such luxuries, and their work is (1) subjective; and/or (2) empirical — i.e., antithetical to science. I’m just re-reading a note from an Anthropologist friend on a 3 year vacation in Europe that ends in a PhD. When I asked what their hypothesis was, they told me, none in sight, but their colleagues seemed like “very very nice people.” Not complaining — it is that complacency of my fellow social scientists that I replace with scientific method — their softness just gives me all the more gumption to carry on!

    Now regarding triangles, gold likes to make them, and I’ve loved trigonometry ever since I learned what it was — I like to observe them.

    At any rate, you’re definitely on the distribution list, along with a few dozen others on this blog πŸ™‚

    1. Don

      Zkopeten, I suppose one could make the argument that human emotions should produce repeatable market patterns thereby allowing one to make an informed guess as to what the markets might do next. Maybe, but no one has ever come up with a sure fire method that has stood up to the test of time.

      Times have changed. It is an indisputable fact that most trading is now done by unemotional machines and their percentage of the daily trading is increasing . Therefore, logically, all past data has become worthless! There is no point in drawing lines, studying waves , looking for triangles, etc. Don’t waste one more minute with studying past data. The game has changed, forever.

      If you really want to exercise that big brain of yours, spend time figuring out how the machines are programmed. That should actually be easier than trying to find patterns created by human emotion. My brain may not be quite the size yours is, but now that I have put my mind to it, I am beginning to see patterns that are completely new in terms of their nature and duration. I believe that as the machines take over more of the trading, their patterns will become much clearer . The past nine years have been all about repeat patterns. The same dozen stocks that out performed five years ago are still doing the same. The machines are currently buying into ever smaller dips (trying for that edge) and all are doing so at the same time, producing near vertical recoveries.

      The machines trade with one another but in order for them to produce a profit over the long term, they still need human infused capital to be part of the game. If the market continues to rise to the point of the ridiculous, human involvement will dry up and that is not going to enhance profits for the machine’s masters. It will take a bear market to get prices down to a level that humans think is reasonable and then the game can begin again with fresh money and new suckers. For that reason, a bear market will be allowed to occur. I don’t know when.

      There is no doubt that the machines are programmed to act differently during bear markets. Knowing that, it is imperative that we identify patterns as quickly as possible so that we can beat the machines at their game. I believe the task will be easier than it sounds. Computer trading algos must be leaving some kind of mathematical signature because it would be their nature to do so. That is their weakness. I think it would be safe to say that it is unlikely there are big differences between the programming used by the various firms. I doubt that the mathematics of the algorithms are even that complicated. (yes, I do have solid understanding of mathematics and physics)

      So, there you go. Remain stuck in the past, studying useless data until your eyes bleed, or accept reality and embrace a new mission : Beating the machines by understanding how they ‘think’.

  92. Don

    I forgot to mention that the machines are undoubtedly programmed to understand and react to some aspects of human emotions which is why ‘sentiment’ has taken on a whole new importance. Fleecing the suckers is based on determining what are the expectations of the majority and then taking the market in the opposite direction, at least for a long enough time to extract the cash. We see that all the time now. For example : markets rally hard after a gruesome terrorist attack . It may make no sense to us but perfect sense to a machine programmed to take advantage of our emotions.

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