132 thoughts on “Gold DCL/ICL targets

  1. Gary Post author

    I think we can now agree that I was correct on the dollar cycle. It has formed a stretched cycle low. Certainly a daily cycle low, and considering how long the intermediate cycle has run, probably a larger intermediate cycle low as well.

    I expect a bear market rally for the next 4-8 weeks.

    1. Robert

      Still expect a bounce from the DCL in gold or is it possible we see a repeat of Dec last year and gold/miners just goes down straight into ICL?

      1. HomerJ

        Hope it works out for you, for any kind of improvement you’ll need a few back-to-back stellar inventory reports, otherwise the glut/buildup is still weighing heavy. And they don’t care about cycles either..

        1. jacob2

          NEXT FRIDAY for energy. End of quarter window dressing (supposedly illegal) where funds sell there looser’s and buy whats working. Will add then.

  2. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “The real intermediate term sentiment in gold is dead neutral at 46% bulls.”

    — And that correlates to my readings and comments from the math & patterns — very corrective, if you tilt your head this way, it looks bullish; that way, it looks bearish. In other words, “dead neutral”.

    The only reason I’m favoring one more higher high is, I think this Yearly wave C, of multiyear triangle consolidation rally, and I have observed that triangles of any fractal often form a double zig zag for wave C. I mentioned that last September πŸ˜‰ That tendency makes me lean toward the bullish side.

    But the gold market is not strongly trending one way or the other.

    Miners… well… looks like the move up from the December lows is a triangle, or a flat of some sort — not a double zig zag — consolidating at yearly and intermediate degrees. Daily and intraday expanding volatility, but not by much…

  3. Rapunsel

    If the dollar is going to continue strengthening, how is it that energy is going to increase in value relative to the dollar?

    The energy call makes no sense.

  4. AT

    The new strategy – The fight for break even!
    Well, seems like we are finally getting close break even to DUST 34.
    ERX trade still sucks big time. More patience require.

      1. Christian

        Robert — It doesn’t really matter to me. Mother market does what she does and she’s a cruel mistress at the best of times.

        The point is: my average [as previously mentioned on this blog] is $27.50, if I were to sell today @32.50 then that means I’ve made a bag load of cash while yourself and others were sitting around twiddling their thumbs and complaining, and/or losing money trying to pick a bottom in GDX.

        1. Robert

          Twiddling my thumbs? Dont be foolish, I bought JDST at the open yday and slightly green. All im saying is that we should be wary of the DCL because I think the bounce will knock back DUST a bit

  5. bluelagoon

    DRIP has outperformed GUSH 100% of the time the past 3 years in the months of June and July. Today DRIP and DWT are hitting the upper trendline. If this trendline holds, I expect to see GUSH and UWT bounce up but then likely to be smacked down again in July.

    Energy is definitely where the moves are right now. Gold is going sideways.

  6. bluelagoon

    Gary – you’ve been calling for a bottom in oil for the longest time, but I’m not sure how you see that? Oil looks extremely weak and though it might bounce very soon, it is likely to have more downside after that.

    I am doubltful our COP options will get to break-even despite the Aug expiry – timing is everything. Cross my fingers still.

    1. AT

      COP Aug 50 strike options at 2.9s ? Those will not be in the green even if COP goes back to 50.
      I have a few at 50 cents, and even those can make it to green side …

      The only chance is probably ERX if average down at the bottom

  7. chrisG

    If u listen to Gary’s calls on oil, u will not have any overweight issues associated with eating too much oil. Bcos u would be too broke to buy oily food!!! Lol

  8. Christian

    ERX is almost ripe for the pickin.. This is what I like to see πŸ™‚ I’m gonna drop down into a 1 hour/30 min chart and wait for a convincing reversal.

  9. Bigdaddy

    Chirstian and I are basking in profits with DUST while the idiots chase ERX GUSH. Get on bard with the winning train people. The miners are going down .

    1. Christian

      It has but I like to get in as close to the bottom as I can so that if I have to bail, I lose very little. It’s all about ‘Risk vs Reward’ which most on this blog have yet to understand. And I think (once again) that Gary will be proven correct on this one. I’ve notice over the years that he tends to be a bit early on his calls but he’s usually right when it comes to nailing the big picture. That’s why I follow him πŸ™‚

  10. Don

    Yes Gary, you were right on the dollar and so far, right on the miners and if you just keep calling for a bottom for oil,, it to shall come to pass.

    1. AT

      Good call Christian. I I average down as well on my ERX avg 29.3. Filled at 24.6 today, now I have an avg of almost 27. That ERX buy at 29+ was not the best moment.

    1. AT

      too early for JNUG,
      JNUG will be a buy probably around $10 – $12 sometimes the next 2 – 4 weeks

      I guess DUST probably will go up to 40 by then …

    1. JJHarmen

      Christian, I have also been a critic of Gary’s calls. He throws a lot of mud and then only claims credit for what sticks while ignoring what doesn’t. Maybe you have a name for me too?

    1. RetireYoung

      Potential scalp on JNUG. Looks like a bear flag on the GDXJ 1 year daily, if you think it is trending down. Potential bounce to upper trend line then down.

    1. Christian

      I hear you but the simple truth of it is that our thinking aligns.. that’s it. Gold Predict and a couple of other Analysts I follow are also singing the same tune and I don’t see anybody accusing them of pretending to be Gary so..

      I’m also the only one posting my trades WITH my strategy on this blog in real time for free. Should I also attribute that to Gary? Should I also attribute the past 10 years of successful trading over to Gary as well??

      Food for thought β€” let’s be reasonable. You don’t have to like me but I am a valuable contributor.

    1. Christian

      Lol people HAVE called me ‘Pedestrian’ and worse, and it kinda makes me giggle.

      I don’t mind a bit of cheekiness Don.. in fact , I welcome it πŸ˜‰

    1. Robert

      I think u got out too early but profit is profit. I am jus finding it hard to believe that miners will continue to hold up with this gold pressure. It’s ridiculous but I’m gonna keep holding jdst

  11. Don

    While silver has been making new lows on a daily basis, the leveraged silver ETFs, AGQ and USLV have not yet broken their lows made back on May 9. Most unusual for a leveraged product that should be decaying. I think that may have a bullish meaning plus the fact that so many are bearish on the PMs now. I just bought more silver ETFs.

  12. Don

    It is on USLV. Platinum appears to be making a bottom also. A lot of today’s negative action in the PMs can be attributed to the uptick in the dollar and not necessarily from a lack of demand.

    1. Robert

      Actually you prbly were right getting out of dust early. This is really amazing that gold has been dropping and miners being propped up. The bankers kept a lid on them so long and now that gold has finally sold off they are not taking them down. Nothing makes sense anymore. Gary was right, stick to stocks or oil

  13. Bigdaddy

    Wow, look at how much the biotechnology ETF has gone up today and crazy for the past couple of weeks. How come no one is playing that hot potato? is it to late to get in? anyone got an opinion?

    1. Don

      Gary was super hot on the Bios about a year ago but then lost interest when Trump was elected. He figures they may target that sector because of high drug costs. Maybe he’s right.

    1. Don

      BD, what did you get in at, if you don’t mind me asking? The stock market is at some pretty lofty heights so maybe it will take a fall. I sure in the hell hope so.

  14. Bigdaddy

    I hate this laptop. My fingers are too big for the keys. I am getting another tower. The wife has promised not to wreck it if I don’t swear at the screen anymore. I don’t want you guys thinking bad of her cause she destroyed my other computer. She’s a good woman an good looking too and says she loves me so a man can put up with a little shit once in a while.

  15. Don

    desertsun: Of all the things that Gary has said the one I like best is: In bull markets, all timing mistakes are corrected. So, are we in a PM bull market , or not?

  16. desertsun999

    Silver broke its 5yr downtrend line in April 2016 at around 16.00. The dollar had a almost perfect 8yr cycle high in Jan. of this year. It was 1 month shy of exactly 32yrs from the 1985 Feb high. As soon as gold confirms its game on.

  17. Kruzoe

    I think Dust has more upside before Gold bounces. So, keeping my 2K Dust for another day but raised my stop tight to 31.80, close to the low of the day. That should give me about 10K profit.

  18. Don

    BD: Christian is definitely not Pedestrian in disguise. No long winded paragraphs from Christian and he is able to handle criticism whereas Pedestrian always lost his shit real quick. Also, Christian seems to know what he is talking about on whereas Ped was an absolute know nothing.

  19. Don

    Trump just thanked China for their efforts to reign in North Korea bit “it has not worked out”. What is up with that? And the Russians just flew a fighter within five feet of an American recon plane. Is the shit about to hit the fan ?

    1. JJHarmen

      We will have a new place to drop our very expensive bombs. Our economy needs wars because we don’t produce much else that anyone wants. We need good paying jobs so hard working folks can pay taxes and keep our disadvantaged lower class folks fat and happy or all hell will break loose. War and killing people works for America. Sad.

  20. Goild

    Christian,

    Indeed JNUG is closing with a little hammer.

    Though I think you are likely to be right as GOLD has an appointment with $1230
    as indicated by the bottoms trend line.

  21. Gary Post author

    For those of you still in denial about an ICL decline in gold, here’s something to consider.

    Gaps on the GLD chart almost always get filled. There is a gap at $111.

    Are you willing to keep holding long positions until that gap gets filled, because I think the odds are good it will get filled before the ICL is done.

    1. Don

      Gaps “almost always get filled” applies over the short term but over the longer term they get filled because of mean reversion and not because they are some target that ‘must’ be filled. I wouldn’t count on the 111 gap being filled just because the gap exists.

    2. Robert

      Lol it might fill for gold but mining shares in a world of their own. Poor performance from dust & jdst so far. I suspect the miners sniffing out a DCL soon. That’s the only thing I can think of for the non existent fall in miners

  22. bluelagoon

    Does anyone trade SHLD? I notice that its chart patterns seem to be pretty straightforward – at least vs. metals – yet it can offer some huge returns. It’s looking like it’s going to bounce soon.

    We’ll see what the crude report has in store for us tomorrow but the charts are looking like GUSH/UWT are ready for a bounce (a DCL?). Either the low is in or will be by next Tues is my guess.

    1. JJHarmen

      You are talking about Sears? You go right ahead and load up on that one blue. You will wake up one day and find they have declared bankruptcy and your shares are worth zero. Bankruptcy is part of American ingenuity. You have anymore good ideas?

        1. Gary Post author

          LMAO Clearly you haven’t been paying attention.

          The stock portfolio is up 89% in the last year and a half. That’s not even including all the gains from previous years.

          The metal portfolio if we were to sell today would be up 143%.

          Clearly I’ve been correct about the dollar.

          The only thing that is taking awhile to work is the energy portfolio but it will come around as well.

          Don’t forget all my trades are done in real time including position size. You are going to be hard pressed to find any other newsletter writer that has a real time record like me. Most will give you multiple wave counts and then choose the right one after the fact or give you an entry and then cover his ass with some kind of stupid comment like “be sure to use a stop”. That helps no one, anyone can pick an entry every single day and then tell you to make sure to use a stop. When you start hearing that kind of crap you know you are paying money for nothing.

          So tell me again how I’ve been wrong more than right…

          I think you should buy a subscription just to pay for that stupid statement.

    1. Gary Post author

      There are no gaps in the gold chart because it is 24 hours.

      I’m talking about the GLD chart. For whatever reason those gaps almost always get filled.

  23. zkotpen

    Christian,

    “if I were to sell today @32.50 then”

    “I’m also the only one posting my trades WITH my strategy on this blog in real time…”

    “Well done! Nothing wrong with locking in a bit of cash.”

    I concur with the value of your contributions. So I would like to request one more of you: Exit strategy.

    Your entries have been really good — I don’t think cashing out on DUST is the way to go just yet… but it’s coming, likely sooner than Gary suggests. When do you plan to cash out of your short miners?

    1. zkotpen

      Also, good call on Don. I call him “Page Don” — and that frees my mind for more interesting pursuits. Polemic is argumentative, and though it’s not worthless, its value is far overstated in practice.

      I am only interested in stuff that has predictive value on the forecasting side of things, and practical strategies that work on the trading side of things.

      Don’t care to discuss and argue, just present my case, and consider cases presented by others, if they point out stuff with predictive value, or strategic insights.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold needs to break the intermediate trend line as the first confirmation that the ICL has begun. Then it must complete a failed daily cycle by moving below the May low. The decline must also unfold as an ABC correction so there has to be a bounce in there somewhere and then a lower low.

  24. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “Are you willing to keep holding long positions until that gap gets filled, because I think the odds are good it will get filled before the ICL is done.”

    I agree, except, I also think the odds are good that the ICL needs to start, before it is done. πŸ™‚

  25. zkotpen

    AT,

    “The real question is: Is GOLD price going to find bottom at 1215 (may lower) or under 1200 (March lower)?”

    The answer is yes, in all probability.

    The real question is, therefore: When?

    As in before or after it exceeds 1296? I say the latter; Gary & others say the former. Gold is “dead neutral”. I trust you can figure out the implications. Good luck!

    1. Gary Post author

      I say the dollar cycle and the gold cycle are already way too stretched to include another leg down (in the dollar) and another leg up (in gold).

      The intermediate dollar cycle has already lasted over a year. I think it’s unrealistic to expect it to generate still another daily cycle before bottoming.

  26. Gary Post author

    Silver and miners have already broken their intermediate trend lines and confirmed ICL’s in progress. Another $3-$4 down and gold will also break its intermediate trend line and follow the rest of the sector in confirming an intermediate degree decline in progress.

    1. Robert

      I can hardly consider this as a ICL decline so far in miners. This is the shallowest dip all year. I don’t know what it will take for gdxj to finally give in. It’s so stupid, all year the bankers as you say have kept a lid on miners as gold soared. Now gold has finally fallen and the miners have all the reason to fall and the opposite is happening. Miners are being held up. It’s a stupid market. You should do less analysis on gold miners now and just stick to gold itself

      1. Gary Post author

        The bottom is probably 15-20 days away still.

        Maybe even longer than that. The weekly chart of gold has to push the stochastic back to oversold. And the weekly chart of the dollar needs to push the stochastics back to overbought. That could take longer than 4 weeks.

  27. zkotpen

    Gary, Robert,

    Actually, I like Gary’s suggestion that Robert focus on Real Estate.

    When I read his comments, it sounds like he’d be a skilled negotiator in that area.

    Think about it: People are very responsive to his comments!

    In financial markets, by contrast, all the negotiation skills in the world come to naught, as far as I can tell.

  28. zkotpen

    Gary,

    This is precisely why I say, keep it to the daily cycle as a practical matter, even if we’ve got ideas about the intermediate and yearly cycles.

    Gold’s daily cycle decline — maybe miners — are tradeable.

    So is gold’s inverse: USDJPY. The correlation is still strong at -0.80, and the charts are lining up for a push to a DCH in USDJPY, which should be around the time of the DCL in gold. I have been watching this market for about 3 weeks & feeling more & more comfortable about it. Also love the 24 hour aspect (I think?). For now, letting the pullback play itself out…

  29. zkotpen

    KHT,

    “It appears my lovely chart has been compromised.”

    As I told you it would. Still, the idea is totally valid — just without any constraints, other than wave A (February peak) and wave B (May trough)

    1. KHT

      I see what you are saying. Todays close puts Mays tail in play. I always tend to place more importance on the body rather than the wick/tail when in doubt. The wick/tail is where traders have been, the body is where they are comfortable being. A chart is nothing more than a study of history and I am trying to put that in perspective on how it may project into the future.

      For me, I need to see what happens with GDX before I might adjust the lower line. (ewave be damned)

      Still in all, it works for me. My trades were profitable.

  30. dboz

    β€œThe utter fragility of the latest and greatest Fed bubble could not be better proxied than in this astounding fact. To wit, during the last 5,000 trading days (20 years), the VIX (a measure of market volatility) has closed below 10 on just 11 occasions. And 7 of those have been during the last month! … That’s complacency begging to be monkey-hammered”,

    1. Gary Post author

      The moment of truth was many weeks ago. The miners have already broken their intermediate trend line and back tested it.

      Patience is key. We will get an amazing buying opportunity in the future but we have to wipe out all the bullish sentiment first with a scary as hell ICL.

      1. dboz

        Still out of miners. Trying energy for now. Still predominately cash. Sure looks like a gold/silver/miners rally is about to commence though. That’s why I am dumb retail though.

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