92 thoughts on “Market Wrap – Current Trend Changes

  1. Gary Post author

    Ultimately I’m going to be proven correct on all of my calls. They took a little longer than I originally expected. Mostly because the dollar cycle stretched out to 50+ days. I didn’t anticipate that long for the dollar cycle to bottom.

    But in the end I’m going to be correct on the gold call (and we will make a tidy sum on our short trade).

    I just keep hitting it out of the park on the stock portfolio.

    And I think there’s a pretty good chance the energy stocks have bottomed and are now on their way up.

    Of course the trolls who show up every time we don’t get the timing perfect will be nowhere to be seen. Will they compliment me on our trades once we exit with big profits? Probably not. I’ve been hitting it out of the park in the stock portfolio for years. Not once have they ever mentioned that statistic.

    They never acknowledge the winning trades, only the drawdowns along the way.

    1. ras

      gld beginning to roll over? As long as you are winning overall, it does not really matter if others acknowledge or not. Cheers on 1 day wonder.

    2. Gary Post author

      I have no doubt that energy has bottomed and just like every other ICL the entire board is on the wrong side of the trade.

      This pattern repeats over and over at every one of these ICL’s yet no one on here ever learns.

      The only one who ever gets these turns is me, because I’m a true contrarian.
      I predict most of you won’t start to get bullish on oil until many percentage points have passed you by.

      Human nature never changes and most humans are sheep just following the flock, and flock never turns until half are already eaten by the wolves.

      1. ras

        Interesting dissertation. No point in trying to be a hero. A bit of basing action ensures a floor for a trade. I do not mind paying a bit more and buy on intra day dip. it is coming, courtesy of day traders. gush has moved a couple of bucks. No big deal. Your calls are great, just a bit early.

        dust could also be a good buy on dips. I prefer gush to dip. gush is beginning a new up cycle.

  2. Bigdaddy

    The S&P at record highs and QQQ is down. WTF? I can tell you why, because I SOLD SQQQ at the close yesterday. Nobody in this house better look at me funny today, not even the dog or there will be hell to pay.

    1. theworldwithoutfacebook

      Rotate into commodities/materials. Some of these tech stocks have astronomical valuations, material are a bargain in comparison.

  3. desertsun999

    Gary, there are just so many things in play here its really hard to have any conviction on direction. You think we had a early 3yr cycle. I think its just as likely that we have a late 3yr cycle after more downside. The dollar has already given us one false breakdown on the monthly ema’s. To have two false breakdowns would really be pushing it imo. The only thing that a person has to hang his hat on at this point is your strong conviction on what has to happen for a ICL to occur and of course the short term action in the dollar. I just don’t see the dollar being able to close above 98.50 this month so I think this is going to have to stretch out to at least July. It sure would be great to have one more major buying opportunity. I hope your right!!

    1. Gary Post author

      I went over the DNA markers of the ICL in the morning report. Lime I said, the emotional traders and subs always cancel and sell right at bottoms. Thats why they are bottoms, because everyone has to be positioned wrong.

  4. Adrian

    OK S&P 500 2438.35 ish6points exceded, next posible turn Price 2679.21
    Stop loss activated, out and to what follows…

  5. Don

    Gary, we know that you are way down on DUST and energy holdings so it’s a little premature to be beating your chest. Credit will come when credit is due. BTW, your stock portfolio isn’t something you have talked about on this blog so it’s success is only something your subs would have knowledge of.

    Ultimately, the stock market is going to crash and ultimately oil will hit $100 again and ultimately gold will exceed it’s all time highs, etc. ANYONE can make ‘ultimately’ calls and not make a dime in the markets. Timing is everything in this business.

    1. Gary Post author

      You have got to be kidding. I even did a post stressing to focus on stocks.

  6. Don

    The big five are getting slaughtered today as are the semiconductors (SMH) All are down at close to 1.5% Small caps are pulling the market today. Is this the start of a change in a long standing pattern?

  7. Bigdaddy

    SQQQ is up over a buck and I am just sitting here watching after having sold my position at a loss. Unfuckingbelievable!!! I have to change the way I play this bullshit game.

    1. HomerJ

      You’re the worst trader I have ever seen, either that or you are the funniest poster.

      1. Don

        Bigdaddy has good sense of humor but is not a very lucky man. He did say he has oil on his property and that in itself is pretty lucky! Wish I had the steady income to blow in the markets.

  8. jacob2

    Ha! Not suprized, once everyone has thrown in the towel on oil the algos reverse course and run them back up. Oil and tanker stocks the flavor of the day. That said, don’t see tremendous upside in oil as fast approaching end of quarter window dressing and large funds will want to show they’ve been in what’s been working and that’s not oil.

    BIotech entering strong seasonals the beginning of July and gold the end of July.

    ALl good things come to those that wait … eventually.

  9. Bigdaddy

    Why are the oil stocks up so much? It’s not like crude has caught some big bid. My sources did tell me that crude was going up fast so maybe those in the know are buying oil stocks.

  10. bluelagoon

    Don – I think this may be a change in pattern at least temporarily. SOXS seems to have hit a local bottom – I posted in the last thread not realizing this new one had begun. TNA also coming down -see if it goes sideways for a while – if yes – expecting more downside. Looking to buy TQQQ at a bargain price end of the month.

  11. Don

    In the past, before central banks got into the markets, sector rotations generally occurred during a market correction. Now it would seem that the selling of one sector is immediately followed by a purchase in another. I guess that is how it works when your biggest player has a printing press. I was just reading today that the Swiss central bank is the worst offender of the practice. The central banksters have obviously realized they can buy anything they want to the point of total ownership and control and no one can stop them. the Mafia must be envious.

  12. Steffmeister

    Rate next week bad for Gold?

    The bottom line is history proves gold thrives in Fed-rate-hike cycles. Rising rates are very damaging to stocks and bonds, leading to surging gold investment demand for prudent portfolio diversification. The lower gold’s price levels entering Fed-rate-hike cycles, and the more gradual their hiking pace, the better gold performs. That makes gold’s prospects in today’s newest Fed-rate-hike cycle exceptionally bullish.

    Gold not only languished at deep secular lows when the Fed started hiking a couple Decembers ago, but this rate-hike cycle’s pace is the slowest ever by far. And the hyper-dovish Yellen FOMC is still falling all over itself to convince markets this relaxed pace will continue to dawdle. Thus gold is perfectly set up to enjoy a massive Fed-rate-hike cycle rally well exceeding the already-big historical winning averages

    On the very day the Fed indeed hiked again as expected in mid-March, gold and therefore gold stocks surged dramatically. The FOMC members controlling monetary policy didn’t up their collective forecast for three total rate hikes in 2017, which was considered dovish. So the HUI soared 7.8% higher in the afternoon after that third rate hike of the Fed’s newest cycle.

    /Adam Hamilton

  13. Dday

    The weekly gold gold candle certainy looks bearish. Sure its been a turbulent week, testing my resolve. So if this is a false move are the banks simply manipulating gold again.

  14. Steffmeister

    A rate HIKE next week at the FOMC, very bad for Gold?

    More from Mr Hamilton:

    With gold stocks so darned cheap relative to gold, the odds heavily favor the nearing inflection point of this symmetrical triangle turning sharply north. And interestingly, a potential big buying catalyst for both gold and gold stocks is coming next week. The FOMC is meeting to make a monetary-policy decision which is widely expected to result in the fourth rate hike of this cycle. And future rates will be forecast.

    Despite gold-futures speculators’ paranoia of Fed rate hikes, both gold and gold stocks surged sharply after each of the three previous rate hikes in this cycle. Why should the fourth prove any different? It’s also quite likely the FOMC members’ collective view on more rate hikes in 2017 proves either stable or more dovish than expected. After Q1’s very-weak GDP and May’s huge US jobs miss, the Fed can’t be hawkish.

    The Fed only forecasts future rates at every other FOMC meeting, or once a quarter, in the so-called dot plot. That showed three total rate hikes in 2017 in mid-March, when the US economic data looked much stronger. Traders had expected that to be lifted to four, but it wasn’t. That’s why gold and gold stocks surged sharply that very afternoon. If that rate-hike forecast stays at three next week, gold should rally again.

    But between the sharp deterioration of US economic data in the past quarter, along with the Fed’s desire to soon start shrinking its grotesque balance sheet ballooned by years of QE, the FOMC may very well lower its 2017 rate-hike outlook. It doesn’t even have to fall to two, signaling this year’s rate hikes are likely over. If the collective forecast even sheds a quarter point, gold-futures speculators should flood into gold.

    Remember mid-March’s less-hawkish-than-expected dot plot drove gold 1.9% higher the afternoon it was published. That resulted in a major 7.8% HUI surge that very day, along with nearly a month of follow-on rallying after that! If gold and therefore gold stocks catch a bid on next week’s FOMC decision, this sector’s symmetrical triangle will conclude with an upside breakout that could unleash big buying momentum
    I’m just thinking, when every analyst out there (except Mr Hamilton) are expecting a summer low something different will occur, a curveball coming next week!?

  15. zkotpen

    PS: Were we, or were we not talking about today’s monster full moon round the end of last week????


  16. Don

    Expectations are obviously high for the energy sector. Crude just hasn’t got the message yet.

  17. JJHarmen

    Gold stocks are holding up well I bought 3 hundred more shares of GDX at 22.95 with a tight stop. I don’t believe the banks are manipulating miner stocks. That sounds like nonsense.

      1. Dday

        If gold falls and dollar rises miners will fall, regardless if the banks manipulate or not…

    1. zkotpen

      Premature, my friend!

      Gold pattern is playing out as I suggested Thursday night. I wasn’t sure if the final big move down (wave 5 of intraday A) would come today or Monday — then answer is: Both. It began today, and should finish up late Monday or early Tuesday.

        1. djrtrading

          Don, I couldn’t make sense of Zkotpen’s post either. It’s contradictory. “Final big move down.” Gold’s dropped $25 ICL declines last longer than 48 hours. Unless he believes the ICL happened in May and this a snap DCL before gold rockets on FOMC.

          1. zkotpen

            Already answered below: I see the May low in metals & GDX as an X wave, precursor to the second zig zag — ABC pattern — of a double zig zag to the ICH = YCH

            Now, within that second zig zag, wave A appears complete, B in progress, C should make a higher high. So far, I think it’s gonna be lower than JUL, 2016.

            The big caveat is, at larger degrees: decade, multiyear, yearly, intermediate… moves are all corrective in nature, not impulsive (i.e., not strongly trending). That means:

            -Be flexible in your forecast. Now more than ever, “price action is more important than your forecast”.

            -NO “backing up trucks” NO “betting the farm”…

            -NO “riding intermediate cycles”

            Daily cycle trades are even suspect, though they MAY work, if they are not corrective. BUT every single daily cycle move has been corrective since the December low — hence all the confusion and bickering about whether this or that move was daily or intermediate.

            Swing trades make more sense, especially on USDJPY, which is a near perfect negative correlation with spot gold.

            Carefully timed swing trades or day trading the wiggles for something as erratic as GDX.

            When I say GDX movements are erratic, I mean their correlation with gold is less than +0.5. I would even consider +0.5 to +0.6 to be a weak correlation.

            XAUUSD may be the most regular chart in the world and across history. USDJPY and XAGUSD are trading nearly spot on with gold. Those patterns are relatively REGULAR.

            DXY, EURUSD, GDX — these look erratic to me, but that’s my opinion. Their respective correlations with gold seem almost random, or at least very difficult to pin down.

            I also outlined a strategy below: Line up 3 degrees of trend in a row and all pointing the same direction for swing and/or day trades.

  18. Don

    The market has lost the support of the Biotecks, Semis, and Techs. That leaves energy holding the bag and crude is refusing to cooperate. This is getting interesting.

  19. Bigdaddy

    It was a great day today, especially for the SOB that bought my SQQQ yesterday. I have the strongest urge to shoot something so if you don’t see me here on Monday, don’t concern yourselves because my monitor will be out of commission. Have a great f….king weekend guys, even you HOMERJ !

  20. Don

    After today’s action in the energy and pm sectors, of the 55 sector ETFs that I track, the best performers from one month ago are SIL, SLV and GDX (all PM related) The three worst : FCG, XOP, and XES (all energy related). Bet that’s a surprise.

  21. matrix

    GOLD COTs……..Commercials Net Short 226K contracts…up from 188…!!!! …..gold will tank soon…

  22. Bill in Tokyo

    Good post Gary, thanks.

    You’ve been saying that breakouts fail for the last couple of years, and sure enough the latest one in gold did fail. And probably you’re going to be right again if gold plummets down to break support this summer/fall.

    I’m now thinking about your other recent article on Nasdaq going up. I’m wondering if, for this fall, if you see both GDX and QQQ both going up together.

    In 2008-9, both fell 1st, then both rose together, until 2012, when gold reversed and then fell, while QQQ continued to rise. I only bring this up because sometimes GLD and QQQ rise together, and sometimes not. What I’m really wondering is, how long this QQQ bubble will last? Longer than this fall, I presume?

    Anyways, good post and thanks again.

  23. matrix

    GOLD COTs…(2),,,,,,,,from May 12 to June 9, commercials net shorts went from 157K to 226K ctcts,…….THEY CONTROL PRICES.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      I’m wondering how much COT matters anymore. What with gold exchanges in Shanghai, HK, Dubai, Singapore. It used to matter, but now, I’m not so sure. I wouldn’t trade off of it.

  24. zkotpen


    “OK, so does that mean we bounce or we launch? Are you still looking for an ICL?”

    Not yet on the ICL for gold & miners. Tuesday’s high makes that MUCH less likely.

    One can still profit from traps — any market is always trending at some degree.

    It is necessary to line up 2 or 3 degrees of trend. For example, in the current move down since Tuesday:

    Daily cycle: Down
    Intraday: Down

    For the swing trade, one needs to catch the intraday move after the first move down at the subsequent bounce. 2 of those in this daily cycle.

    For the day trade, it’s best to line up 3 degrees of trend. The highest degree of trend governs direction. The lowest of the 3 degrees will determine your entry & exit points.

  25. Bill in Tokyo

    Paper swing trader Bill here again.

    My pure TA system updated –

    – GDX and GLD both gave sell signals today – these are in weekly consolidations, so I wouldn’t actually buy
    – QQQ also gave a sell signal today … but, so far we’ve only made a higher low compared to mid-May, so I’m getting ready to buy

    1. Gary Post author

      The buy is in energy stocks.

      The sector I’ve been bullish on for awhile. It’s where the next big trending move is going to occur.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        I hear you, and you’re probably right in the long term.

        But for my swing trading, I’m not buying it yet. The monthly chart of XLE is down, as is the weekly, and neither charts’ RSI(14) is oversold yet. And the daily chart, my swing trading view, is just a long downtrend of lower highs and lower lows, with no oversold RSI yet, and no divergence.

        QQQ is a much easier trade right now – it’s going up, and just buy the dips – not knowing when the top will come. But, I think it’s going to happen sooner than later, like this year. But we’ll see.

        I respect your cycles and sentiment, plus your experience and judgement. Am just saying that from a swing trading perspective, XLE is not on a buy signal for me yet.

        1. Gary Post author

          The Q’s are too extended to be buying right now. You can hold because the Nasdaq is going above 10,000 but don’t start initial positions right here.

          Go take a look at the weekly volume on ERX and then think again about my advice to buy energy.

          And get rid of the retail mentality that you nee to wait for confirmation before entering. That kind of strategy no longer works in our modern markets.

          In no aspect of life can you sit back and become comfortable expecting everything to stay the same. That’s not the way the world works. Everything is constantly changing and nowhere is that more relevant than in the financial markets. The traders that make the big money are the ones that adapt to change the quickest. Those that get stuck in the past get poor the quickest.

          I gave you a good example with the evolving cycle durations. Most cycle analysts are stuck in the past. That’s why they keep getting their cycle counts wrong. You have to adapt. As markets evolve we have to evolve with them.

          Waiting for confirmation is a thing of the past. You aren’t going to make any money with that strategy. By the time you have confirmation so does every other Tom, Dick, & Harry and that means the market is about to reverse. So you end up buying at a short term top.

          1. Bill in Tokyo

            Yup, I see your confidence, and after looking at weekly ERX it doesn’t sell me. Again you’re probably right, but I can’t handle the risk of it being wrong. It’s way too early. I need to see a higher low 1st, on a daily chart. And I hear you on reinventing ourselves, not living in the past, etc. I have to update my trading model every 3-6 mos. That’s why I was asking how is it that computers can now have sentiment, and how cycles can work for that reason plus QE 1-3. But you’re successfully hanging in there.

            I can only do what my pea brain says. So I’m waiting for QQQ again, will buy the dip if it happens, w/a tight stop. The last 5-6 trades I had in QQQ were all winners. The next one could loose, but again my tight stop protects me.

            Appreciate your comments though. I learn a lot from you. You can’t make a race horse out of a donkey. 😉 And I’m only good for pushing and pulling, and that’s about it.

  26. desertsun999

    OFF TOPIC; One persons view of the crazy F**KING world that we are currently living in………………………………..
    About 20yrs ago I moved to Mesa, Az. from the Midwest. The job that I currently had in the Midwest required that I chose a week of educational advancement somewhere in the country and beings it was winter time in Minnesota I thought Phoenix was a great place to expand my brain. After experiencing that winter weather I was living there a year later. My wife & I bought a home there in 2002 for 160,000.00. About 3 1/2yrs later I told my realtor friend next door that if comp’s in the neighborhood started selling for 320,000.00 to go ahead & sell my home to her investor friends in California. A day later the neighborhood realty comps come in the mail. The model of home I lived in was selling for 325,000.00.
    Two days later after a video walk through of my home was sent to investors they bought it for 330.000.00
    After closing on the sale of the home I decided to buy silver for 7.00 an ounce because of Jim Puplava. I was a regular reader of Financial Sense and to this day credit him to opening new avenues of learning that I was completely unaware of. The self taught education in technical analysis started and has continued to this day. About 2 1/2yrs later silver went up to 30.00…….a whopping 425% gain. At the time I thought a pullback was going to occur so I sold it all only later to see it run up another 20.00 an ounce. In the 2008/2009 time frame everything went on sale. We went vehicle shopping and bought a Nissan 350z roadster with 30,000 mi. on it, a dodge 4×4 quad cab with 15,000 miles on it and a 4dr jeep soft top in great condition for about 56,000.00 for all of them. Now lets skip to the present day. I went to see The Mummy today and on the way home I had to pull over to take a look at a used Rubicon 4dr Jeep. When I seen the price they were asking, 50,000.00 it started this tour down memory lane that I am currently sharing with you. Sometimes I think that we have been living in this zestpool of a world that the central banks have created for so long that we have all become desensitized to how f**ked up everything has gotten. For the people that bought at close to the top of the precious metals run up in 2011 I cannot even imagine how demoralized they feel. The one investment that is suppose to protect you in the type of environment that we are currently in and they are still being kicked in the face by the banksters. I wanted to share this story because I think its important for the people that have not been rewarded for their due diligence to hang in there and continue on learning as much about the markets as you possibly can. My wife and I come from very, very humble beginnings and I can honestly say that my self taught TA education has changed our stars.

  27. zkotpen


    This is one of those occasions where you and I break ranks.

    You’re looking for failed daily cycle in gold then another daily cycle that will lead to the ICL

    I believe the next daily cycle low to be a bear trap — it will fail to fail 😉
    and be followed by a higher DCH = ICH = YCH.

    We shall see how it goes!

    1. zkotpen

      PS: I see the May low in metals & GDX as an X wave, precursor to the second zig zag — ABC pattern — of a double zig zag to the ICH = YCH

  28. zkotpen

    Bill in Tokyo,

    Are you a night owl?

    Just asking — the overnight hours of NY market don’t work the best for me. Hate the graveyard shift. Wanted to zone in on Friday’s action, but was exhausted & asleep by 10am market time!

  29. Bill in Tokyo

    Hi zkotpen,

    Not a night owl. I do get up at about 3 am, but I’ve been that way since I was a kid. Trading out of the timezone is impossible, even for a swing trader. Things gap up, gap down, etc. Plus thinking is not clear and decisive. Add to that I’m double taxed, being a US citizen living in Japan. That’s all about to change though – am moving to the US this fall I think.

    In fact I had to change my swing trading model again today after seeing QQQ tank. Instead of getting out at end of day price, I’ll get out when I get my signal. Putting in a stop and going to bed doesn’t work, as price can gap right over my stop (I use SELL STOP LIMIT).

    Gary’s the night owl. Even when he sleeps his eyes remain open, as he watches cycles dance across his ceiling. 😉 Seriously, the man only sleeps like 2-4 hrs night, and it doesn’t seem to affect him.

  30. Bill in Tokyo

    PE – Now I’m not a fundamentalist by any means, but I just looked these up – check out AMZN.

    AAPL 17.48
    AMZN 184.24 !!
    FB 38.04
    GOOGL 32.78
    NFLX 204.44 !!
    FNV 95.34 !!
    RGLD 49.67

        1. Ed

          I had SLW many time in my portfolio. I am very suspicious of this company. Why change name Any time a company change its name you kind have to watch out. Trying to hide or interrupt news history. CRA-Canadian Revenue Agency has a big choke hold on this company. Why SLW only when FNV, RGLD, SAND do not have this tax problem.

  31. jacob2

    Wild Day. After the AM Blast-UP there was a Big Rotation out of FANG and tech into oil and value. Goldman and the alsgo’s flipped the switch mid day and what was hot gets dumped and what’s hated gets bought. Simple. Oil and Dr Copper completing there bottoming process and a trend reversal is underway.

    Being early, was painful but I’m patient and confident that these upcoming reversals are going to be a shocker to most. A 50 print then quickly up to 57-58. How about 80 oil in early 1Q2018?

    We’ll see of course, but I hung in there.

  32. Ed

    Start buying JNUG. one batch @18.66; another @18.44. I am rotating GDX to JNUG. From here on I am going to play JNUG and JDST exclusively.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      HI Ed,

      I’m no expert by any means, but I think I read that GDXJ is going to be rebalanced next week on Friday. If so, its possible that JNUG/JDST are going to be impacted by the reshuffle. I myself would stick to NUGT/DUST next week if I was playing it that way. Just fyi tho I’m sure you’re aware.

      1. Ed

        Thanks Bill.
        I was thinking JNUG particularly next week because the reason for this whole re balancing is for a positive reason. Too much money inflow to GDXJ for it to limit to small market cap PM miners. So VanEck is raising Market Cap for companies GDXJ can allocate their investment fund. The rule gave VanEck two month to finish the rebalancing. So I figure it is almost done, The rebalancing should make this GDXJ mush more stable and attractive in my opinion.
        Good Luck to you Bill.
        I was once stationed in Okinawa. I love Summer in Okinawa and Winter in Hokkaido. 🙂

  33. Steffmeister

    Gary: “Ultimately I’m going to be proven correct on all of my calls. ”

    Skeptical about the parabolic move in Nasdaq etc. I’ve warned about a major correction starting in Q3 2017.

    Were the downturn in Apple the first warning sign?

    1. Steffmeister

      The call for a midsummer low in Gold is more than 12months old from some other analysts so that is nothing new.

    2. Gary Post author

      I’d like to see the Nasdaq pullback towards the 200 DMA. That would clear sentiment and set up the next leg higher.

      We’re going to see at least 10,000 before this bull market tops.

      1. jake

        Wild guess, If there is another push or two down to break support it might all be over after the FOMC statement.

    1. Ed

      FANG are dead.
      If there is an inverse leverage EFT for FANG, I would invest all my fund in it.

  34. Ed

    Last raise if they do —> BIGGEST POSITIVE FOR GOLD SHARES.
    Wimp out and Not raise —> Not So Good for gold. It’s like kicking the can. Give them too many yelping opportunities to mess around gold price.

  35. Ed

    When $100 billion new money flows in market places every month, everything goes up except gold. Once ECB Drague said something like this, “He will buy everything except gold.” so there is no mystery in Gary’s pumping in NASDAQ 10,000 theory. But like everything in life, there is birth, youth and growth, getting old and dying, and then there is death.

  36. Robert

    Hello Gary, some other gold cycle analysts that I follow are saying that this daily cycle low coming in gold will be a great buying opportunity. They say that the next daily cycle will not be a failed one and that we will get another high or RT cycle in gold. That would push it to 5 rt daily cycles in this intermediate cycle. Has gold ever had 4-5 straight right translated cycles? I disagree with them. Now Zkot a regular poster here is saying the same thing. Is this possible Gary? Maybe the ICL will be delayed again on the bounce from this coming DCL

    1. Gary Post author

      That is possible if gold drops far enough to test the lower triangle trend line and pushes sentiment to extremes.

      I might also depend on how long a dollar rally lasts.

  37. ras

    Let us leave cycles and sentiment to Gary. What is gld going to do at 50 dma? Bounce or breakdown? On intraday chart, nugt is nearing a supprt. Bounce or crash?

  38. zkotpen


    What is gold going to do at 50 dma?

    My thoughts about gold’s intermediate cycle (i.e., 50 day SMA):

    Gold’s Intermediate cycle appears to be in wave Y up, the second zig zag of the yearly wave C double zig zag. Price should not go below the May low of $1214.40. If my outlook is correct on the yearly cycle, should remain above $1233 for the upcoming daily cycle low.

    Of course I don’t think gold will go straight down to its DCL. Best place for a bounce on the way down? Around the 50 day SMA…

    1. matrix

      tks for sharing……couldnt agree more with each analysis….. 1160/1180 gold is my number.Cots are a good sign. tks again!!!

    1. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

      Gold shouldn’t test 1200 again until after summer, in the meantime, higher high year over year

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