Real time trading challenge – rules

The purpose of the challenge is to expose just how hard this business is in real time. Virtually every financial blog in the world is filled with day traders. Let’s face it almost none of these people are actually trying to manage money. They are gambling. Pure and simple. Do you think any big time successful money managers would trade the way most people do on the financial forums? Of course not.

So rather than listen to how great so and so is and how many perfect calls they got right this is the everyone’s opportunity to actually prove whether they can make money or not. No more of this bullshit about how you made a perfect trade last week. For the purposes of the challenge you are going to have to abide by real time trades like everyone else. There will be no Monday morning quarterbacking anymore.

That means:

You email me your entry or exit within one minute of placing it. That way I can verify the trade. [email protected]

Shares only. Not everyone can trade options. If you want to use leverage you can trade any of the triple leveraged funds.

I could care less if you actually take the trade in your own account. I’m just looking for real time calls. I don’t take every trade that I provide for my subscribers. Often I use more leverage than is appropriate for 90% of people. And I will wait for weeks or months on that fat pitch where I can swing hard.

When you email me your trade I need:

Time it was placed.

Entry or exit price:

Percentage of the portfolio. Don’t tell me you bought 200 shares. That is meaningless as I have no idea how big your account is. 200 shares of USO is different than 200 shares of JDST. Give me a percentage (10%, 20%, 50% or 100% of the total portfolio. You get the idea).

For purposes of the challenge everyone will start with $100,000.

Please no day trading. I don’t have time to track and verify 20 day trades every day.

The prize will be a life timeΒ subscription to the SMT if you can beat my returns over the next year. Or if you choose you can trade it for a cash prize of $500 instead.

Now a word of caution. I can almost without hesitation tell you that those people that just go all in on leverage on every trade will fail miserably. It only takes one or two losing trades to damage a portfolio to the point it’s going to be hard to recover. So plan your trades and position size carefully. The winner will more than likely be the person that is the most risk adverse and avoids taking any big losses rather than the cowboy always swinging for the fences.

We’ve seen lots of bragging over the years. Now we’ll see who really is swimming naked.

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421 thoughts on “Real time trading challenge – rules

  1. Alexandru Popovici

    Dear Gary, I will take your challenge.
    Two questions:
    1) The trading interval is 07.01.2017-06.30.2018 ?
    2) no futures and no cfd but only leveraged etfs, right?

    1. Nada

      Alexandru, how can you possibly take the challenge? You gave me your word that you would no longer post on the SMT blog. It took you less than a week to default.

  2. Robert

    100k? My account is not that big but Gl to you guys. Gary, lots of selling in miners today. Could this finally be the start of the ICL? Maybe we get it in 3 weeks

    1. Nada

      Robert,

      It’s a paper portfolio. You start with 100k – you do not actually need real money in your account. This challenge is analogous to how Gary trades the model portfolio on the subscription side.

      1. Robert

        Oh! Thanks for clearing that up. So we jus do paper trades and send the time and price? Ok I will take that on but paper trading usually has delayed quotes so how will that work? The prices won’t be real time

    1. AT

      LOL … good one! I predict Gary will win. Good luck!

      Christian, got a small DUST position today for a trade, hopefully that will not became a “core” position. πŸ™‚

  3. zkotpen

    Bigdaddy,

    That post you originally reacted to was not addressed to you. Obviously, you are welcome to read it if you like, but you were not the intended reader, so I was not tailoring that post to you. You have no idea what my intentions were in making that post.

    But my posts regarding gold, GDX, and USDJPY prior to the June FOMC meeting were much clearer. Even Tuesday, I posted I thought USDJPY was going for its DCH in clear terms — hours before it moved up. All yours to use and benefit from, or not. You either took them, or you left them.

    If you want to build a successful trading team, I recommend doing like the LA Lakers did last week: They wanted Lonzo Ball on their team, and they are doing what they need to do to make that a reality that everybody will be happy with. That certainly does not include taunting him, or inviting him to come play for the love of basketball, while they make zillions off of his unique skill set combined with his dedicated efforts.

    I don’t know who your sources are in oil, or how much you pay for their dedicated services.

    I looked at the ERX (sp?) chart a few weeks ago, for about one hour. That is all I have dedicated to that chart, using my most up to date skill set. At present, I have no plans to revisit that chart in the near future.

    Why would I?

    I’m certainly not a one-man team, but I reckon I’m a pretty good point guard.

    How about you?

    1. zkotpen

      Bigdaddy,

      And just to be clear: I don’t owe you anything, so stop acting like I’m supposed to share my thoughts on markets or anything else with you like an open book at your public library.

  4. jacob2

    Short tech buy oil. The new thematic for the 2nd half? Thats what happened today as this years wicked sector rotations continue. Just when everything gets almost preictable it changes. All that tech money has to go somewhere, oil and languishing gold catch big bids? Wouldn’t that be something.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think it’s more likely that we just get a wicked correction into a yearly cycle low and then oil and stocks go up together. Oil may have just bottomed a few days ahead of the stock market.

  5. Christian

    Well, looks like I missed the big show today.. I was hoping GDX/XAU/HUI would tag their 200DMA first before reversing but today’s bearish engulfing candle is very convincing.

    I still have a core position in DUST @27.50 [logged in real time on this blog for all the doubters] and will probably add a few more shares tomorrow.

    I will be watching this trendline in Gold, below:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ozkm2Gnk/

    We could get a bounce off this trendline.. and interestingly enough, “Gold Predict” is saying the same, so I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on it.

    1. Christian

      I also missed USO by a hair. Will pick up some shares tomorrow on a pull-back, but not sure I wanna chase OIL — it has plenty of tricks up its sleeve..!

  6. Bigdaddy

    Zkotpen ,
    1. i have not asked you to post anything or posed questions
    2. i have not asked you to stop posting
    3. i did imply that to me, your postings were “mumbo jumbo” and that is true and my wife agrees.
    4. i did ask you if you could post in plain language but don’t bother cause i don’t care anyway.
    5. i understand that you are one of those people who needs to impress others with flowery language littered with plenty of useless information to demonstrate how intellectual you are. Go ahead, if that is what makes your day. i don’t care.
    6. i just scroll past your stuff to see what guys like Christian and Gary have to say.
    7. i won’t bother you anymore and you don’t bug me.

  7. Bigdaddy

    It is frustrating to see oil up over 2% and ERX down 0.5%. I am so glad I didn’t start buying the oils when they were first recommended here because anyone that did is now sporting big losses.

    1. Gary Post author

      And I still maintain that if you had bought and held in the end you would have a lot more money than you are going to have with your current strategy of chasing every little rally and getting caught at tops. ie. biotech today. Or trying to short the PPT protected stock market.

      1. Bigdaddy

        What? How could i possibly have been better off buying ERX at 30 bucks and holding it until now? i am in at 24.41. What did you get in at? $32? And, for your information, i made money on LABU and got out of it before it fell apart today.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ll tell you exactly how. Because you are stuck in this short term trading pattern. So even though you got in lower than me you won’t be able to hold the position long enough to make any real money off it.

          Me on the other hand I’ll hold it for months and probably make 50-100% on the trade even though I entered too early. I still got “close enough”.

          1. Bigdaddy

            You are right. i don’t like taking the huge draw downs that don’t seem to bother you.

  8. Steffmeister

    Is the LOW in? Is 1240 the line in the sand?

    Time to start chasing miners folks πŸ˜› buying two months from now might not be such a good idea …

    1. Gary Post author

      BUt… we haven’t had the intermediate dollar rally yet. Draghi has managed to stretch it out but he hasn’t permanently stopped the euro from ever correcting. There will be an intermediate decline in the euro and an intermediate rally in the dollar.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold isn’t even over 1260 and this with the dollar making new lows.

      Gold should be over 1300 by now. But so far it can’t even make a higher high.

  9. zkotpen

    I am looking at gold’s yearly and intermediate cycles now.

    Yearly looks indeterminate.

    Intermediate — I am seeing something that looks like Gary’s decline in progress. Perhaps an expanded flat, with the June high as a wave B peak. Since that peak, we could have five waves down to a daily cycle low, with a weak bounce in progress, which could be a wave 2.

    In other words, I’m flexible about whether the June high will be exceeded, as the bounce just isn’t looking too convincing so far.

    Either way, holding for intermediate waves is not worth the risk to me, much less any position of longer duration. Swing trades still make the most sense — for gold (maybe GDX, too — still need to take a look at that one), when 3 successive fractals line up, pointing in the same direction. Otherwise, it’s too much risk, especially for trading with leverage.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is still just a B wave bounce before the next leg down begins.

      I don’t know how many ways to say this but traders just can’t get too bullish until after the dollar delivers it’s intermediate rally.

      To think that the dollar is never going to rally is just as foolish as thinking the dollar would never correct back in December.

      Once the dollar finds its ICL and starts to rally then we’ll see how deep gold’s ICL will be and that is when you want to get bullish.

      Right now it’s just nuts to get excessively bullish with the dollar at risk of putting in a major degree bottom at any day.

      Logically I think everyone understands this, but emotionally we choose to ignore it and figure since the dollar isn’t rallying when we want it to that means it will never rally. That’s the emotional way of looking at markets and its the wrong way.

  10. Ed

    I think that is whole reason behind fat finger tricks in middle of night. Pretty soon everyone will catch up with this dirty trick and there will be people waiting for this shit to happen again and do exact opposite by soaking up all sell future contracts. Then you will see how high gold price will go 😎

  11. Gary Post author

    I saw a lot of challenge traders jump into DUST yesterday based on the chart. But not only do the banksters fleece the longs they fleece the shorts as well. I suspect yesterday’s big reversal in miners was bait to setup the shorts for a fleecing.

    1. mustang sally

      Hi Everyone: Thanks Gary for setting up this game, it beats playing bingo at the old folks home, anyway I am all in on good ol dusty, let the fun begin

    2. Robert

      Everyday your are flip flopping. First it was a bull trap now you say a bear trap. Then if thats the case there is no trend and miners will remain flat until they are ready to breakout to the upside

  12. Gary Post author

    And I think we have an intervention in the stock market this morning to keep the market propped up ahead of the July 4th weekend.

    This may end up completing the YCL in the dollar. We’ll see if the reversal holds into the close and if it forms a swing tomorrow.

  13. Goild

    Good morning,

    My take is we just had a GOLD’s little double bottom to continue completing the converging coiling.

    Paying attention to JNUG and NUGT is that they are bad, very bad choices to make money going long.
    The smart folks managing them charge a lot for their services.
    Better to buy GDXJ and GDX times 2X or 3X when going long.

    Lately the miners charts are quite challenging, any trend on any timing, last almost nothing.
    Looking at LABU and LABD they show longer trends. I will give them a try.

    Do not trade tired. I lost my lunch money at the end’s day yesterday falling knife .
    Today is a new day and we will make good money.

    1. Ed

      Good morning
      I agree with you 100 %. Jnug and night are bad choices during the time like this. I am in process of converting them into individual junior minors. I will complete that process this morning.

  14. Don

    Gary, your track record on calling the dollar isn’t the best so why don’t you just quit trying? Your multi-week rally for the dollar was made weeks ago and it just isn’t happening. Sure, there will be a rally eventually but from what point ?

  15. Ed

    Isn’t it so amazing?
    Dollar is making new lows but Gold and mining shares keep going down.
    Aren’t we so sick of few people in FOMC dictating our lives and our monies?

  16. Nada

    Sold my 100 contracts of GDX from 1.13 at 1.40 from two days ago. Profit $2700.00 Unfortunately for the challenge, I had to convert this to DUST due to no options trades being accepted. So for the challenge profit is 791.84. I sold the puts because this was a gap fill play and miners are whipsaw.

  17. Ed

    Something about to happen in the middle east. Saudi making a threat on Qatar and it will do nothing is a very remote. Oil price in other hand may not go up when there is an escalation. Dollar and gold, both, may get stronger. Glut in oil market will continue once Saudi gets in a full blown conflict, IMO.

  18. Bigdaddy

    Big rally today. Sell off is over folks. Glad i didn’t jump into SQQQ. My ERX is finally starting to move up but it’s painfully slow. At this rate it going to take a long time just to get back up to the 28 bucks it was just a few weeks ago.

  19. Ed

    Oh man, I got out FAZ in nick of time yesterday, made few bucks on the trade.
    I think Gold bulls going to be hurting next few days. Half year performance rating is due next few days.
    I think Trump made a deal with Saudi telling he will support Saudi 100% and tell Qatar same thing while we maintaining bases in Qatar. Once Saudi loses the leadership in OPEC, we are going to get oil price so cheap no one wants drive Prius. BTW I drive Prius, it’s a wonderful thing. A conflict there will certainly help our struggling shale industry, make dollar stronger, and Gold stronger which no one is anticipating.

  20. Don

    Yesterday’s SM sell off has been almost completely erased . If the S&P manages to exceed yesterday’s high of 2440, one would have to conclude that pullback is over.

  21. zkotpen

    Goild,

    The strategy I elaborated over a week ago is bulletproof. As Gary says, even so, it’s still hard to win in this game. Today, I got my head tied up in knot trying to figure out the very complex yearly & intermediate cycles in gold & GDX.

    But daily cycles appear to be rising. When the scenario I outlined sets up, do your think. Otherwise, sit on ur hands!

  22. Don

    The Russell 2000 has already re-couped all of yesterday’s losses and is now closing in on it’s all time high made on June 9. The same goes for the broad based Value Line Index. (VALUA) which peaked on June 13. If these indexes fail to make new highs over the next few days and fall back, it will be game over .

    1. Lenapowich

      Don, I love your commentary and how you point out the oddities. Do you think the bull market is intact then? Also, I am very bullish on gold and silver as it seems you are. I collect silver coins and bars but looking at buying the ETFs. The world is a mess and they should eventually go up big. Just my two cents worth.

  23. Robert

    And everyone here is still waiting for the supposed crash in miners. Ppl you have been waiting almost 2 months now! Forget it move on to something else. DUST is dead money. All analysts got it wrong including Gary, play oil instead

  24. Goild

    LABD appears to be reversing. Got 1000K shares.
    I did recover the lunch money lost yesterday and also made lunch money for today.
    Though badly played and I hate it. At some point I was losing $3K.
    Good and wise trading to all.

    1. Christian

      Entirely up to you. My time frame is different than yours and I’m not necessarily looking for a day-trade, meaning I’m happy to hold onto ERX for the time being.

  25. Emptyness

    @Gary
    I see a lot of overstatement at your comments.
    First: You are seeing interventions in the stock market nearly every day. Looks like a kind of paranoia to me. Yes, there is probably a PPT, but why should they intervene nearly every day ?! Everyone knows that we get a stock market bubble, when there are no normal corrections. It can’t be the aim of FED / PPT to pump up a bubble in the stock market.
    Second: You surely know that gold is mainly driven by inflation / real rates and not by the USD. Look at TIP and compare it to the price of gold, then you will detect the very very strong correlation. The correlation to the USD isn’t strong at all.

    1. Ed

      I agree 95% with your statement above.
      We are led to believe USDJPY and Dollar are somehow tied to gold price.
      It’s their way of trained people like us to believe that and use that “supposedly close correlation” to manipulate gold price. Gold price really tied to real inflation but the problem is nobody know what the real inflation is. The government statistics are cooked up you won’t know what are real and fake. And Trump administration is no better than Obama in that regard.
      However, I disagree 5% because all commodity prices are priced in dollars, so dollar strength and weakness affects gold price temporarily. Thanks for sharing your good observation.

    1. JJHarmen

      Of course you made your lunch money today just like every other day. You account must be busting with all the money you have made. I don’t know how anyone can run a stop as tight as 5 cents on a triple leveraged fund and not get picked off before making a profit. Just amazing.

  26. allthatglitters

    Congrats BD, cannot argue with making money in this crazy market. I personally do like how ERX is behaving though, I see momentum building for it in the upward direction.

  27. allthatglitters

    I feel that sub-$25 for ERX will be bye bye real soon. $24 for ERX was price when sentiment was completely and utterly abysmal. Nowhere to go but up.

  28. Goild

    JJ

    Trading life I guess is not easy but for the talented, which I am not.
    I play horrible, in the last three days I have had drawdowns of $1K, $2K, and $3K to
    recover. I sell too fast for a small profit and take a lot of heat sometimes.
    Impatience is a problem. I keep my log and devise ways to protect me from myself.
    My account is growing by bits. The USO 12K shares are working and I can have a lot more patience there.
    I had made before 2/27 about $95K, to loose, $80 in falling knifes and stupidly. Now I am back at +$45K since I joined the SMT site in October last year.

  29. Goild

    There is a trading book that tells the story of a taxicab driver.
    He noticed that his peers were looking for clients who would ask for long rides. Though they had to wait a lot to get those clients.
    He realized, that there were too many clients asking for small rides and so he has picking them up often and charging them the flag plus a ride of few blocks, making very good money.

    Call it the taxi driver style, lots of little trades, with minimum risk, to make good lunch money everyday: today $1700.

    Good trading to all.

  30. dboz

    Miners just creeping up and up and up every day. Gold is frozen in time. Miners now surpassing my sell zone and if we don’t get a pull back, I am looking at chasing, which will be very demoralizing. Still in wait and see mode. Getting harder and harder to wait though. Looks like we could break down any day but it never happens. When I was loaded to the hilt in miners we had cascade after cascade, now since I am out they are rock solid and building upwards. I feel like BD.

    1. Robert

      Dont bother to chase. Gary and all the analysts have been dead wrong. It is neither time to go long nor go short. The correct call was that miners would remain flat for months which decays both bull and bear x3 ETF. I guarantee no one including Gary here has made money on miners the last 2 months unless they were just day trading.

  31. Jimsee

    fundamental indicators (in current context of course) rolling over for gold while currency doing nothing for it….goldman is pushing ‘long’ for a reason.

  32. Goild

    I will add that this month I have about 2000 trades, or about 100 a day making in the
    average $8 a trade plus the $4 the house charges.
    How terrible trading…
    But the house likely loves me.
    If they are happy with $4 a trade, why should I not be happy with $8?

    Consider this: practice makes perfect…

    1. Ed

      Where do you the strength to trade that many trades? Seriously how do you do without any emotions. You gotta have a mechanic down pack to succeed right?. I admire you for that. Consistently making profits regardless how small those profits may be. They add up right? Tell how do you do

  33. Nada

    @Goild
    I am not following your math. You indicated that you average 800 a day. Well there is roughly 252 trading days in a year, so that would equate to 201,600 in yearly profits. However, you also made the below statement:

    “I had made before 2/27 about $95K, to loose, $80 in falling knifes and stupidly. Now I am back at +$45K since I joined the SMT site in October last year.”

    Those figures don’t really fit a gain of 800 on average a day. 10/16 to 06/28 is about 8 months or lets say 168 trading days. If you made 45,000 in 8 months that comes out to around 267.85 average a day. If you continue with that streak, then that would add on another 22,500 dollars. So 45k + 22.5k = 67.5 roughly and thats a far cry from 201,600 or 800 a day. Maybe you can clarify.

  34. zkotpen

    Robert, Retireyoung,

    Bravo Robert — you are on board with what I’ve been saying for months. Since late February: Sideways consolidation, characterized by 3 wave moves.

    No: Old turkey, no riding intermediate cycles, no core positions, not even trading daily cycles.

    Yes: Swing trades and day trades, as RetireYoung points out, in different words.

  35. mustang sally

    Good day to everyone, This is my first post ., Today was the start of the biggest run in commodities, you can’t tell which way it will go now but the cards will be laid out soon, Gary is right no one will make any money because the swings will not let you make any money, throw out your cycles analysis ,5 min charts nothing will work. I will enjoy the circus as it unfolds, the end will be when all newsletter writers throw in the towel and then the bull will start.

    Mustang Sally

  36. zkotpen

    dboz,

    “Looks like we could break down any day but it never happens.”

    Consider this:

    Daily cycle in GDX looks like it’s pointing up.

    Intraday still looks like it’s pointing down.

    Break down is not likely in that scenario, even if the short term trend is down. I think Tuesday was the shorting opportunity — very brief. Plus, that intraday move that I suggest is pointing down may be complete; if not, it’s very nearly complete.

    good luck!

  37. zkotpen

    Mustang Sally,

    “I will enjoy the circus as it unfolds, the end will be when all newsletter writers throw in the towel and then the bull will start.”

    I agree — probably around the mid 2020’s, if not later, regardless of what this or that group of people do.

      1. zkotpen

        Robert,

        “The question is when will this trading range on gold and miners end?”

        I thought there were 2 questions: When, and in which direction?

        Good luck!

  38. Gary Post author

    I thought it was interesting that everyone felt the need to get a trade of immediately today.

    Was there really a potential setup for anything today other than a rescue of the stock market ahead of the holiday?

    Almost no one bought the stock market though.

    1. Bob

      I’m starting to pay more attention to the RSI(5) level of USD and noticed today it was down in the 18 level and it started rising on me, as was JDST, so I figured I better get in. Hell, I just got $100,000 so bought it on a “close enough” philosophy. In recent history it’s gotten down to the low 13’s and if this is an ICL that’s probably a good target. It’s down in the mid-16’s tonight so probably should have waited. Hope JDST can hold off the pressure for the next few days. But, it is a competition, and I’ve got a year, so lots of time to sharpen the focus

  39. Goild

    Nada,

    What I said above is that this month, this is June, the average per day is $800.00.
    That does not mean that from October 2016 to now I have done that average.
    Actually May was also about $800 a day.
    March and April were adjustment months as I lost a lot on falling knifes.
    I hope this clarifies.

    I read some of your option trades and realized you must be talented.
    Would you elaborate on your way of trading?
    I think people here would enjoy reading about it.
    Please!

  40. Goild

    Ed,

    Here are some pointers.

    1. My trading agrees with my mind. One must understand oneself and find out what are the trading problems to weed out.
    2. Keep it simple. GLD, JNUG, NUGT, FXY, TIP, SPY charts on my monitor 5 minutes candles.
    3. Whenever GLD, FXY, TIP align it is a very high probability trade for JNUG.
    4. Focus on one security which is compatible with your mind.
    5. Learn how that security behaves in great detail.
    6. Learn the candle patterns that are high probability.
    7. Trade small amounts of money as to decouple emotions.
    8. Aim at consistency and long term results.
    9. Obey the candle pattern
    10. Profit from channels and divergences.

    1. Ed

      Thank you, Goild.
      Not that I can understand or can follow your trading rules but I definitely need discipline. So I assume you created an entity to write off all trading expenses and tax on net profit as company’s income. My account is mostly made of IRA so there are no tax reporting rewuirement. But I am thinking about incorporating my my regular brokerage account. Again thank you very much for sharing your trading rules.

    2. Ed

      Goild
      II find any trading rules very hard to follow. It makes a lot of sense logically but when there are timed to follow your emotion takes over. Greed and fear. So I admire people who can follow their self imposed laws and rules. I will take time to see if I can learn from you.

  41. Goild

    Ed,

    Thanks for the comments.

    Rules and commitments are broken so often here.
    There are lots of trading mistakes and the market in a sense is lenient.
    The thing is to have good faith, find out the weeds and try one by one to deal with them.
    Establish a consistent practice, same this same that, the details count, and soon you will see
    improvements. Again trade little money as to keep emotions in check.
    The way to deal with the trading rules, is to form trading habits, repetition, repetition.
    Use imagery as you wake up to program yourself.

    If you have specific questions just ask.

  42. Goild

    Well the channel theory is proven to be right.
    Since 2013 GOLD has been in a channel around $1220.
    Look at the monthly chart.

    Then one may think of when the breakout will take place.
    Or the next oscillation cycle.
    Actually for gold to take off there must be an undercut.
    I would say GOLD is heading down to $1220 to complete the current cycle on the monthly chart.

  43. isavage

    Gary Ref your comment above and for Goild’s benefit.

    “Almost no one bought the stock market though”
    I did Gary with shorting UVXY.

    Fisrt to cover long but then double down to profit. Buying short pre market and from day before. Closed out end of day = nice work.

    I’m going to be honest and say I would have been the first to agree that all the news from the central bankers said SELL. But have been burned too many times for that

    I feel now to keep the market moving they adayre resorting to short squeeze of all new shorts until their targets are hit.

    One day this nonsense will end!

  44. isavage

    BTW I’m taking part in the trading challenge. But only with oil and metals.

    I’m in/out to regularly to be up dating you through out the day.

  45. mustang sally

    The winner will more than likely be the person that is the most risk adverse and avoids taking any big losses rather than the cowboy always swinging for the fences. Gary quote

    Just to let everyone know I am the cowboy not swinging from the fence but on the fence, I am all in as of June 28 in good old dusty.

    I like the cowboy theme, dusty, and my name mustang sally, Giddy up!

  46. isavage

    USD index has done at last 100% retrace of the election night dip. We should see the turn now for your dollar bounce.

    Real selling to start in metal’s for the C wave down.
    Or
    We get spectacular Euro breakout and metals go along for the ride then we roll over and ride the resistance line to a summer low before Bast off.

    Looking forward to it πŸ™‚

    1. Gary Post author

      Lets face it. No matter how hard one squints gold is behaving poorly, and it’s doing so as the dollar dives into the final crash days of its YCL. This should be golds opportunity to power above $1300 but it hasn’t even been able to get above 1260.

      I think the B wave bounce for this daily cycle is finished. If we get a measured move of similar degree as the first leg down then gold is about to make a bee line into a DCL over the next couple of weeks down to 1180ish.

      Then I’m afraid there may still be another daily cycle before the ICL bottom is struck because the dollar should rally for at least 4-8 weeks.

  47. Goild

    isvage,

    Thanks for the comment on uvxy.
    I gather that you realize the PPT would bring the SM back and act on its likelihood?
    Can please explain what you thought to plan the trade?

  48. Goild

    Good morning,

    Hope no one carried JNUG and NUGT overnight. They probably will sink.
    USD is at the bottom of its channel, at channel support, and more previous support.

    There might be easy money on LABD.

    Good trading to all.

  49. Steffmeister

    Price is SET, we will not go below 1240 (but we are close) Observe the low was 1236 remove the 1k part and you get 0.236 a Fib retracement level directly shown in the price

    Lets see how things unfold … I may eat my words later today πŸ˜›

    1. Steffmeister

      The ongoing battle:

      The two bear squeezes are clearly visible from 21-23 June and 26-28 June. We remember this for the future. Late or weak bears not as smart as the average bear, can from now on get screwed by smarter bears and bulls alike. It’s a sign of change relevant for the longer term.

      So now they try to break it, probably today and tomorrow, and if they can’t, that will be as bullish as we get for a half year ending. If they can break it, and they will get some help, well, the trading range increases to include more area below. There is possibility for an EOM bear squeeze across markets, but I wouldn’t count on that, I figure probability now has swung opposite to how I expected on the last daily squeeze(s).

      In my mind’s eye I have a trend run under the lows, and am looking for a kiss and a rally. If it goes into a short term flag that’s fine, but no breakdowns after that required to do such a kiss of the descending trend. Getting back above a level after being under it is important at these times.

      1236 will be tough for them and telling for us. It’s good to see it lasted from the G-V until today through contract expiry at teh Comex. This is good. Now it gets it’s second bashing and gets to prove itself. Or not! Kissing the trend necessitates a new low, but for it to get back above would make it a failed break, with no follow through by fresh bears, and that’s what I want to see. Remember, the late bears just got stung twice. But a break will try to lure in more of them. That’s why it must be attempted.
      __________________
      argentus maximus

  50. jacob2

    BIotech? broke out recently, stong seasonals and positively correlated to the dollar. Biased own some. We shall see. Commodities the pain continues.

  51. ras

    pharma still strong. vrx powering up. gld and dust moving in the right direction. Base and industrial metals doing ok. hbm up. Euro not cooperating with cycle folks.

  52. Don

    Despite yesterday’s big rally, the semiconductors (SMH) are now below the lows of the sell off on Tues. It appears that at least one bubble may be bursting.

    1. Steffmeister

      Yepp, the late bears lost some more teeth πŸ™‚ the bull is gaining strength, the spin-kick is lethal haha

      It’s fun to watch imo …

      1. RetireYoung

        You’re just repeating Argentus on TFs. And no one has lost teeth yet but it Could still go either way. I’m thinking down. 3 waves. Banged once today. But GDXJ isn’t gold. My guess GDXJ bangs down to around 33 today or tomorrow. Gap fill. Then it has a decision

        1. Steffmeister

          His approach towards analysis of markets interests me a great deal.

          I have a date with Gold on the 7th of July, that is not a repeat of Argentus work but my own analysis. A fractal pattern is coming to an end by that date.

  53. allthatglitters

    I agree with Gary’s comments on gold. It acted like a wet noodle even as the dollar was crashing. That cannot mean strength in the near term.

  54. JJHarmen

    To buy more GDX or not to buy, that is my question. The dollar continues to make fresh lows despite Gary’s daily calls for it to turn and decimate gold and the miners. Since gold did not rally while the dollar has fallen, why should we assume it will crash if the dollar goes up?

  55. allthatglitters

    US Dollar is like a wild animal with rabies. It is now backed into a corner. Do not even dream that wild animal is going down without a fight, lol

  56. Bigdaddy

    Ok, guys, listen up. i just bought 1000 ERY at 13.36. There are too many crude bulls and it’s going to take a dump on them. Watch me make some quick cash.

  57. Goild

    Little lunch money today: $60
    Sold 8.5K USO shares for about a profit of $2200.00.
    Still have 3.3K USO shares pending.

    I will not have any JNUG or NUGT shares overnight.
    These can sink so easily.
    Good trading to all.

  58. mustang sally

    Good day! I browse the community websites for enjoyment, since in the old folks home were limited to excitement, and today is the best waffling I have seen from the circus for a long time, is usd going up or down, then gold must be going up or down. That my friends will be the sign of the times, get used to it. Do you really believe people who make money in the market are posting on websites or writing a newsletter.
    If you answer yes, hand me your money now, and i will save you the time you waste on these sites. The next year and a bit will rid you of your money.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Piss off mustang sally. There are a lot of really smart people posting here and if you just shut your yap and watch, you might learn a thing or two.

  59. Kruzoe

    Been out of the market for a week and missed the recent run up in Dust. I made just 4 trades in the last 2 months, all in Dust with a $58K profit. My next trade should be very soon and I plan to buy Dust again.

    1. mustang sally

      Big daddy, you don’t scare me , with your huff and puff, you are the reason people lose money, right now I am doubling my bet on dust I am in 200% you match it with nugt and lets see big boy.

      Mustang Sally

      1. Nada

        I am not sure why people think they can manipulate the price of an asset by saying they are bearish/bullish. You see wild speculations and the way they convey the information is as a strong fact. Alex was one of the worst offenders on this blog, but he has since corrected his mistakes and thats worth a praised mention.

        On tradingview gold discussion room, you see people making comments as a matter of fact. When they are wrong, they run and hide for a few days. StockTwits is the worse site of them all in regards to pumping. I agree with you and I think if everyone had verified broker statements it would be laughable.

  60. Ed

    Just amazing.
    Speechless.
    Totally disgusted.

    Other than that.
    Happy July 4th!

    Set aside few moments to celebrate America and fallen heroes who kept America safe and strong. I came to this country a year before bicentennial as a teenager, served in USMC, and I am a proud American.

        1. primetime

          Who is this, Frick and Frack? You two (Don and JJ Harmen) sound like miserable crybabies.

          And I usually like you Don? You need to look at a paradigm shift.

          1. Nada

            @primetime They sound like snowflakes to me. The best thing about those, is they eventually melt.

  61. Don

    Gary, that ‘multi-week’ rally in the dollar seems to have fizzled. How many times does the dollar have to kick you in the teeth before you stop trying to predict it’s movements? Currencies are impossible to predict and I know that from years of a Forex trader. I finally gave up.

  62. Don

    Facebook and Amazon have now also dropped below Tuesday’s sell off lows . I will be very surprised if we don’t get a big sell off in the S&P by today’s close.

  63. allthatglitters

    BD, more power to you EXCEPT when you’re holding the exact opposite of what I am!! lol

    One comment about sentiment, keep in mind that sentiment on this board might not always be the same as overall sentiment out there. We’ve got some cynics and contrarians, which is not an insult!

  64. Bob

    RSI (5) for USD is down to low 14’s. If it can close in low 13’s that’s likely to be its turning point and, if history is a guide, it should blast upwards from there.

  65. bluelagoon

    JJ – I am still waiting for a bottom on TQQQ since the high on June 9th. It sure has whipsawed back and forth but heading down. I will decide July 1st whether to buy or if I think it’ll go down lower. Since 2013 – buying July 1st guaranteed a profit by sometime in the month – 100% of the time.

  66. bluelagoon

    Alex – glad to hear you are taking on Gary’s challenge. I know there are other posters here who don’t appreciate your predictions but so far, you’ve been pretty accurate on oil and NG – more accurate than anyone on this blog including Gary. I’d like to hear your predictions going fwd. If you prefer not to post here, I can be reached at [email protected]. Thanks and all the best.

  67. Don

    There seems to be a lot of interest in GDX today. Although I am long the miners and silver, the sudden enthusiasm is a bit concerning. But then we have a lot of DUST fans here too so I guess it balances out.

  68. primetime

    Ed,

    Thank you for your service. I too am a proud American.

    Please realize on this site there are a lot of spineless foreigners, ie Canadians who want to ride our coattails for protection and prosperity but do nothing but ridicule. Effin hypocrite crybabies.

    Then you have the JJ Harmens of America who constantly love to take from America but offer her nothing in return. He says, “I dont even celebrate the holiday anymore.” WTF!!!???

    JJ Harmen son, you are not an American then, so leave ASAP….or maybe you and Ed should get together so he could show your liberal ass what it means to be an American.

  69. Goild

    For trading health I am done today.
    Glad I sold 8.5K shares of USO with the hope of a double bottom to pick them again.
    Lunch money is $440.
    I will have a drink to your health guys.

  70. Nada

    Gary from yesterday:
    “I thought it was interesting that everyone felt the need to get a trade of immediately today.
    Was there really a potential setup for anything today other than a rescue of the stock market ahead of the holiday?
    Almost no one bought the stock market though.”

    Hey Gary, is there a way we can view the progress of the trades being taken? Also, it appears the blog folks knew not to get mixed up in the SM πŸ™‚

    1. mustang sally

      Good day Nada: Yesterday was the day, all bulls are trapped today with the breakout gap on dust, like Bigdaddy he will buy the dips until he is dry, and don’t expect the gap to get filled for a long while.

      Ride em cowboy

      Mustang Sally

  71. Bigdaddy

    So far, the ERY trade is working for me but GDX is off a little. That’s ok as both will be winners a year from now. That’s Gary’s philosophy and i think he is on to something. I don’t know why you guys are not loading up on GDX and risking your cash on DUST.

  72. dboz

    Can’t believe the metals are getting NO BID here at all. Markets screaming some panic right now. There is NO BULL MARKET IN PM’s. If you can’t get a lift in this environment, there is simply no interest in PM’s any longer.

  73. JJHarmen

    I think everyone is thinking that gold is very weak because it isn’t going up due to a falling dollar. It’s a setup to shake out the weak longs just like yesterday’s big SM rally was a setup to get the shorts out of the market so it could crash with the majority on the wrong side.

  74. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon, I’ll answer here only if asked, upon the matter asked and if I am happen to see the question (I follow the comments as an alternative sentiment gauging tool).
    Thus, I will abide by the promise I made not to issue any unsolicited comments on any market!

    To answer your question: as a matter of fact I re-entered short NG about half an hour ago (as the market dropped to a lower intra-day low) with a pilot position and I plan on doubling it at least tomorrow on a swing high.
    I do think CRB index and Energy has to deliver one more failed daily cycle before nailing their YCLs.
    Good luck, Blue!

    1. bluelagoon

      Thanks Alex – I appreciate it. I know your original targets for were $39 for oil and $2.65 for NG. I am trying to figure out if oil and NG will double bottom before heading up or make a lower low. All I know is that July is usually a down month for both so you’re likely right that the YCL is still ahead of us.

    2. Nada

      @Alex

      You don’t think anyone noticed you trying to sneak back in? Now it has become, I will not post “unsolicited” comments about trades. For all we know, you created another alias to post from, so you can ask questions to yourself.

      Look lets cuts through the chase. We both know there is no way in hell you are going to be able to keep quiet on your trade ideas. I never had a problem with you posting ideas. Its when you post them in a manner that they are facts vs opinions. That was bothersome.

      I am glad you entered the contest, because its going to be interesting to see how your trades pan out when they are tracked and not traded in hindsight. However, we all know that paper trading vs real cash trades is a world apart – due to the lack of emotion.

      1. bluelagoon

        Nada – Alex wasn’t trying to sneak back in – I asked for his opinion. If you don’t care for his insights – then don’t read them. For those of us who want to hear them, let us. There are plenty of other people who post bad ideas or worse yet – no ideas – just complaints. Spend your time giving us good trade ideas vs. trying to officiate everyone.

        1. Nada

          There is no problem presenting trading ideas. It’s his history of touting the trades as a matter of fact vs opinion. I think we covered this issue and Alex is the one that gave his word that he would stop doing as much.

          “Spend your time giving us good trade ideas vs. trying to officiate everyone.” – There is no attempt to “officiate” anyone. Alex was very dangerous with his wording and this is the only issue I had contention with.

          For trades, I gave you two that netted +10k in a 2 day hold. What else do you want?

  75. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon, you’re welcome!
    Yes. As a matter of fact, I believe NG will reach 2.4 before bottoming.

    XLE and ERX are on day 16 of their DCs, so…still fairly many days ahead for energy stocks to fall in a bloodbath, while oil and NG are even earlier in their new DCs.
    Checking out.

    1. bluelagoon

      Alex – what targets do you have for oil and NG for this DC and any tips on how to recognize when the cycle is turning down? Thanks again.

  76. cazabrujas

    Got into UWT when oil was at 44.60. Anyone else in Oil? looks to me like the ony thing that’s shooting straight these days (on the daily time frame)

  77. allthatglitters

    Still holding ERX, because I am not smart enough to daytrade all the ups and downs successfully. My sincere congrats to those who can. Looking long term on this trade, big potential here.

    1. Nada

      Looks good if the 10ema holds. I would at least play for a gap fill. I was in options yesterday and sold at the 10ema. It was rejected after tagging, but opened higher this morning. To be honest, I sold mainly because I didn’t know how energy would react in connection with Trump’s speech. GL

    1. dboz

      It’s a conglomerate. More diversified and easier to manage than buying each stock. Same deal with miner ETF’s. I was juggling so many miners for individual gainers. Problem is they are subject to issues so if you buy the ETF you get a little less risk but also less explosive upside. So that is why 3xETF, more bang for the buck IMO. More risk and dramatic moves also. I bought GUSH around 17.80 range, so easy to hold onto. Simply a bounce play, thanks to GARY for the tip!

      Top 10 holdings by percentage.

      Rice Energy Inc 2.10
      Callon Petroleum Co 2.04
      Chesapeake Energy Corp 2.01
      Laredo Petroleum Inc 1.97
      ConocoPhillips 1.93
      Oasis Petroleum Inc 1.93
      WPX Energy Inc 1.92
      Parsley Energy Inc 1.91
      EQT Corp 1.90
      Murphy Oil Corp 1.90

  78. dboz

    To say today was a massive disappointment for metals and miners would be an understatement. The conditions were ripe today for a run. We dropped and then started to bounce and then frozen in time the rest of the day. Not seeing much hope for upside after today. Down draft is likely coming. Wait and see mode until after the 4th.

  79. Goild

    dboz,

    Thanks. I was thinking more of an underlying security like GDX for NUGT, or GDXJ for JNUG.
    Holding the 3X can be very expensive.
    The trade looks good.
    Hope you make a lot of money.

  80. RetireYoung

    JDST looking good. I don’t expect GDXJ will hit 33ish again today but maybe breaks through tomorrow. The legs look wobbly on the little bounce but still higher highs since the bounce. Decisions decisions.

    1. Don

      Steff: The break could be to the downside in order to clear out as many weak longs as possible before a reversal to new highs. On the other hand, gold volatility has been quite low during 2017 so a sudden break to the upside would leave a lot of investors off guard and out of a rising market. How many here are currently into the long side of gold in a big way? Not many.

      In my opinion, It could go either way but ultimately, a higher price will prevail. I remain fully invested in gold and silver and anticipate a pay off eventually.

      1. dboz

        What longs? The sector is virtually dead. Volume is ghostly. The players are gold bugs. Gold is frozen and appears to be on the verge of total collapse. Most everyone believes lower lows are coming. Break down to crash zone again, for the third time. No one believes it can go up from here. Many are leveraged short. Many are sitting waiting for the drop. Very few are long or buying. The only possible way I can see any chance of things remaining bullish is to have some sort of rally here. Another blood bath, making 3 in 18 months will just kill off any momentum at all and why would anyone other than bugs play in PMs? If bull markets surprise to the upside right now would be that time.

        1. Gary Post author

          Gold hasn’t even come close to a bloodbath phase yet. That’s what we got in Dec.
          Right now intermediate sentiment is still dead neutral at 51% bulls. We need 30% or less before I’d be ready to call a bottom. Plus the dollar hasn’t even begun its intermediate rally yet.

          You can envision what a rally back up to say 100 on the dollar index would do to gold. It will force a scary ICL. One that will move sentiment back down to panic levels and get everyone looking for sub $1000 again.

          1. jake

            There’s no correlation with the dollar and gold now so what is the rationale for there be one when the dollar rallies? The Yen falling?

          2. Don

            An loose inverse correlation does exist between the dollar and gold but that relationship can remain dis-connected for lengthy periods. More importantly, there are other factors that determine the price of gold (in US dollars). For example, from 2002 until 2011, the dollar went up 66% while gold went up nearly 500%. Obviously, something was driving gold to a much greater degree than a just the currency fluctuation alone.

  81. isavage

    Quite the ride today!

    Modest moves in index giving a 50% move in vix, but “only” 30% in UVXY.
    Shorting that ramp all the way up and now with stops on most entry points.

    Cleared one of my old underwater positions long UVXY & just missed a second larger one. Tomorrow key day! More selling in to the weekend will have big potential Volatility going forward.

    As the EUR is likely to hit my ideal target high tomorrow I have the order in for my second and final position short. Agreeing with Garys USD wave C playing out.

    I’m looking for one more push up from here in the Indexes and EUR. Then a larger correction where I get to close out final UVXY longs.

    Goild – You asked about my UVXY thinking. Not really much to think about. Hyper Vol = hyper money as we saw today. Being long/short is the only way to manage the risk!

    There is very clearly a trend. So being smart you can work out how to play this profitably. Oh and you need to have the Nuts to deal with 30% swings in a day πŸ˜‰

    I’m sure it’s for you as you love Jnug as much as I. It would seem.

  82. dboz

    I don’t know if we are still nuetral, but I would think the sentiment dropped significantly this week. Another brutal whipsaw. Chewing everyone up both directions. No trend, no direction, no clues. Nothing but guessing.

  83. Goild

    To note,

    Today we have a valuable piece of information.

    JNUG and NUGT mostly correlated with SPY!!!

    If the SM crashes, the miners will be dearly punished.

  84. Don

    Does anyone have any predictions for tomorrow on gold, the miners, and the stock market? No one will be razzed for getting it wrong, at least not by me.

  85. Goild

    Don,

    The SM may further fall dragging the miners down.

    The intuitive turning point of the converging coils/triangle some have suggested is probably happening.

    Fridays often repeat Thursdays.

    For those with good reflex/timing skills UVXY may provide good money tomorrow.

  86. Goild

    The 4th of July weekend might prompt the PPT to do its thing.
    It is unlikely we will have a flat day.
    Let your mind have a plan for either case.
    The first 15 minutes might try to fool you.
    Likely it will be trendy.
    Look for the trend and get on board.
    1K shares of JNUG/LABU or JDST/LABD, if correct double, triple, quadruple.
    Have guts to make big money tomorrow.

  87. Goild

    TNX is taken off this week, it broke the trend, and it is unlikely that whatever decision was taken will reverse tomorrow.

    Expect more pain tomorrow.

  88. Emptyness

    Why should USD rally ? USD Index coming from below 85. Now ALL central banks are saying they want to normalize their monetary policy. Maybe they will, maybe not – but the market believe in it. That’s the reason USD is going to drop below 90.
    And gold is under pressure, because expectations of interest rates are rising and expectations of inflation are falling – not because of the USD. Look at TIP / gold.
    I don’t know why many of you are always talking this USD rally – Gold / USD – Gary stuff …..

  89. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon, I do not have precise targets but I do think there is very high probability that oil will bottom sub-40 and NG sub-2.4.

    As to tips for oil&NG turning down:
    – NG, as I was telling you some time ago I was expecting it to do, reverted to its 200dma yesterday and got rejected by it –> WE HAVE A SWING HIGH TODAY! Therefore there is huge probability NG has already turned down!
    – Crude Oil: it is prone to large swings so that I would be surprised if its DCH was yesterday.
    Additionally:
    a) NG tends to lead crude and energy complex so that if NG topped yesterday we should see oil and CRB Index topping today or on Monday/Tuesday and
    b) CRB Index is barely in bought territory so that we should see somewhat higher before meeting its DCH –> this lends prospective power to oil very short-term before topping.
    Anyway….wait for the swing high in oil before shorting it in this 45-46 area w/ final target in 39-turf.

    PS: treasuries and gold are now preparing for final up-thrusts to their YCHs –> besides short-term JPY strength and USD final weakness, this also implies incoming bearishness for Energy: watch these markets too for hints to time your short trade in oil.

    1. bluelagoon

      This is awesome Alex. Thanks for sharing and teaching. Again, I am amazed at how right you’ve been on NG and oil. We are all wrong at times as the markets are tricky but you my friend are on a roll. Nice work!!

  90. Steffmeister

    Yeah, why would the dollar rally. I’ve seen a pattern described for UK gilt from a decade back or something. The pattern is called “Three Peaks and a Domed House”. We are seeing the same pattern in the dollar right now and it is very bearish!

    For gold to rally we need some sort of “disturbance in the force”. I think a reserve currency crisis or turbolance in the bond market. It is coming, but maybe I am too early with my call?

    1. Gary Post author

      “Yeah, why would the dollar rally?”

      Six months ago everyone was saying, “Why would the dollar fall”.

      Nothing has changed fundamentally in 6 months. So what made the dollar drop?

      Sentiment.

      It’s the same thing that will make it rally.

      1. Emptyness

        Sorry, I have to say: No Gary !
        A lot has changed fundamentally – FED and ECB are going to normalize their money policy ….
        because
        a) they need higher interest rates and lower balance sheet in preparation of the next recession
        b) they are afraid of a stock market bubble
        !!!

  91. mustang sally

    Good morning : Slow morning at the old folks home, so thought I would post. The cards have been shown, the roller coaster of all rides has taken off. Never in your life will you see swings that are about to happen. ICL/DCl , long candles , short candles, throw them out the window. If you think you can time this psycho market you are delusional and will be crushed like a fly, You will only learn when you pockets are empty.

    1. Christian

      Why do we always get the weird ones on this blog?

      Let’s go ahead and add Mustang Sally to that list. The name should tell you everything you need to know.

  92. Gary Post author

    A small rally today would be normal. Short term sentiment got extreme. Another big rally would just be another intervention and I expect it would continue on Monday in the low volume.

    It remains to be seen whether the PPT can stop the ICL from occurring.

    1. Gary Post author

      Still need at least one failed daily cycle before the ICL is finished. And as I pointed out last night sentiment is dead neutral at 51% bulls.

      That doesn’t sound like any ICL that I’ve ever seen.

    2. Christian

      Meister — If Gold was going anywhere, it would have already happened as the Dollar PLUMMETED down to new lows. I understand that Gold doesn’t always trade inversely to the Dollar but Gold just sat there like a deer in the headlights.

      Bottom line: GOLD IS GOING DOWN! I don’t even need a chart, because it’s common sense. This is why everyone should be studying cycles.

      1. dboz

        We will find out today or Monday. Out of time. Gold is in the corner of two triangles. Decision time for sure. Break out bullish, down turn bearish. Sector will be dead if it breaks bear. No reason to try any longer. Just onward into a bear market with a really nice 18 month rally.

        1. Gary Post author

          There’s nothing unusual about a correction in gold. It went up for 6 months. A 2 month correction would be completely normal. Certainly not an indication that gold has begun another bear market.

  93. Goild

    Good morning,

    The Monday gold drop was cured to then let it back down graciously.
    The FED is saying “we do not want large disruptions in the business.”

        1. Gary Post author

          I doubt it. I think gold will give us the failed daily cycle I’m looking for and then it will breakout of this basing pattern and start the new bull in earnest.

    1. RetireYoung

      Enjoying your commentary G. Hope you figure out how to post a chart. Would like to see it. I would tell you how but I don’t know how; not sure how people write on them too. Copy paste to Photoshop?

      On my phone and in meetings all day. No trading for me. Holding some JDST. Yesterday’s JDST down to GDXJ 30ish then JNUG scalp was easy. Doesn’t look as clear today

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m thinking biotech may retrace to retest the breakout during an ICL in the stock market.

      At that point I may consider adding it to the stock portfolio.

        1. roadrunner

          I am short XBI with puts. looking for a test of the 50 dma or the gap to be filled from June 16. i expect that to happen in next week or two. So it seems i am in agreement with Gary as to when to get long biotech.

          1. jacob2

            An old turkey. Not that concerned with perfect timming buys as bought SBIO/labu in Febuary and just keep adding periodically. Most concerned with being in the right sector and believe biotech is better then anything commodity related. Good luck.

      1. Bigdaddy

        gary, last I saw, you are long ERX and DUST and are still way down on both so i think i am doing better than you cause i don’t keep losers for very long.

        1. Gary Post author

          The metal portfolio is up 135% in less than 2 years. The last trade in DUST added 30,000 to the account.

          The question was are you actually adding to your portfolio or not?

          If you aren’t then you need to try something different. Stops can also destroy a portfolio. If you never let a trade work and stop out every time you don’t time a perfect entry you will never be able to make any long term gains.

          1. alvinheart

            Sorry, Gary. Had to step in. I joined your account a couple months ago, and my first trade was to buy Dust at 35 when you said buy DUST. I bought 100% with my entire account. Then you said to sell DUST and I did at

            Vanguard
            Quantity: 1,000 share(s)
            Price:* $25.81

            So, I lost $10,000 in that one trade, and almost 1/3 of my account. That is when I cancelled. So, please don’t say you added 30,000 to the account. That did not happen. I lost 1/3.

          2. Gary Post author

            I told everyone over and over and over and over, no more than 20% in metal trades. They are too volatile and shorting is tough.

            If you had followed directions then you would only be down $2000 and you would have been back to even by today.

          3. alvinheart

            I have this account for metals! Anyway, no hard feelings, and when I am a little richer, I want to join up with you again. I like your analysis and agree with you. I wish I had held on to DUST from the beginning!

          4. AT

            it would be fair to mention, before adding that dust 30K gain to metals portfolio, it was recording a losing bigger trade just a few days before …

  94. Bigdaddy

    Besides, all the experts say buying and holding leveraged funds is a good way to lose money. You have to be nimble when trading them. Get in , get out.

    1. Gary Post author

      Do you think it will change if you just keep doing the same thing over and over?

      I got sucked into the short term trading when I was a novice also. I think almost everyone does. I never made a dime at it.

      1. Robert

        I held options and still lost in miners earlier in the year even though it went in my direction. The x3 etfs decay also, so its tricky. Your timing has to be almost perfect

    1. Gary Post author

      Stocks are way overdue for an intermediate correction. We should get it next week barring another PPT intervention.

      Usually stocks and either the dollar or the euro will find their ICL together. Since the dollar is on day 4 of its bloodbath phase I’m going to take a guess and say the bottom for both comes either late next week or early on the week of July 10th.

      1. Robert

        In that case we still have to wait another 2 weeks for the gold miners to start dropping. Thats why im saying this may go on till end of August

      1. Don

        Lena: Yep, although maybe not today but over the next month or so. The high tech flyers have taken a good hit and that contagion should spread to the rest of the market. The central banks don’t seem to be inclined to rescue the market.

    1. JJHarmen

      BD. Why would you buy a 3X leveraged fund like SOXS when it has already gone up quite a bit in the past several days? You are a little late, don’t you think?

  95. roadrunner

    jacob2. i agree with you on the bio’s long term. This was just a swing trade for me. i think XBi will get to 90 maybe 100 before years end.

  96. Lenapowich

    I bought some GDX yesterday and it is up a little today so I am pleased about that. Bigdaddy, are you really sure it is going to keep going up?

  97. primetime

    I love this blog! In a few short weeks BiiiiiiiiiiiiggggggggggggggggggDaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaddy has become the go to guy for advice!!!???

    He is in control and running the show, even willing to lock horns with Savage. LOL

      1. primetime

        Some guys just cant accept a compliment.

        I see Christine finally got tired of being wrong and disappeared in the wilderness skinny dipping that big white ass again.

  98. Bluebellkid

    Is a summer pullback underway?
    Over the past eight years (2009-2016), the stock market has suffered a pullback that bottomed in the summer each year (though it didn’t necessarily start in the summer). For summer, we used the official designation: usually June 21 to Sept. 21 or 22. Let’s look at the summer lows through the lens of the Nasdaq.
    In 2016, the summer low came early, June 27, and represented an 8.2% pullback from the previous high.
    In 2015, the summer nadir arrived Aug. 24. The pullback was 18%, thanks to the flash crash.
    In 2014, the summer low was pegged Aug. 7. The pullback could barely be called a pullback β€” down 3.6%.
    In 2013, the summer low came early, June 24. The pullback was 6.7%.
    In 2012, the summer low also was early, June 28. The pullback was 10.1%.
    In 2011, the summer low appeared Aug. 9. The pullback was 19%.
    In 2010, the summer low was on July 1. The pullback was 18.7%.
    In 2009, the summer low rolled in July 8. The pullback was 8.1%.
    The median pullback in these eight years was 8% to 10%. The average pullback was 11.5%.

  99. Don

    The SM is a mere 1.2% of it’s all time high set just 10 days ago. Not much of a correction, so far. If we got a real correction of 10%, everyone would be freaking.

  100. Goild

    Gold miners are in divergence.
    They may fall by the day end.
    Got about lunch money $489.
    Sold 3.3K USO shares for about +$660
    Hopefully oil will go down next week.
    I am all cash.
    Do not carry worries for the weekend.
    On Monday the SM will close at 1:00 PM.
    Will have a nice weekend.
    You too guys, have a nice weekend!

  101. Bigdaddy

    I’m back guys. My SOXS is down a little but that’s ok as it should move up by the end of the day. It looks like i got out of ERY in the nick of time! I could see what was coming just as plain as day. GDX is still dragging it’s ass but up is a whole lot better than down and a steal at these prices. BUY GDX !!

    1. Steffmeister

      Bcos we are at the end of June the bears threw the kitchen sink at us and we did not experienced a breakdown. 1240 still holds and 2.45 for my favorite miners still holds … looking good imo.

  102. allthatglitters

    BD, nice win on the ERY play.

    Sub-$25 ERX is clearly sloooooowly pushing off shore and leaving the port.

    Everyone looks at 52-week charts and says, “man I wish I could have bought at that 52 week low”

    But when the opportunity comes they are terrified to do it.

    Once it is realized the low is in for this beaten down sector, the move up will be very nice indeed.

    1. Nada

      My take? Its a bounce play to load short for a big player. There was BOW on GDXJ of about 90m yesterday and games being played in miners. High risk, but I emailed Gary the below trade this morning;

      2000 shares DUST at 31.11

        1. Nada

          Yeah it sounds funny when you type the numbers in. However, they have been day trading the miners for months. The chart is total whipsaw. Maybe there is a bigger bounce in store, maybe it was an inexperienced pension fund buying junior miners in a stretched dollar cycle, or maybe it was someone who knows exactly what they are doing. High risk for sure.

  103. Goild

    The reason the miners are resilient and not down today yet is because the USD has been beaten.
    Just wait for the USD bounce and miners will be in pain.
    Add to that fear…

  104. Gary Post author

    The PPT will probably try to run this up into the close to make the weekly charts look like a reversal. Then we could get another intervention during Monday’s low volume trading.

    It’s not safe to short the stock market.

    The strategy is to wait and if we do get one buy the dip.

  105. AT

    this is the only place for a free discussion with questions answered? …

    I’m still holding DUST I added at 30.05. Anybody else thinking DUST will close positive today close to 32? Thanks

    1. Bigdaddy

      Read my comments about DUST and no, there is no chance of it hitting 32 today. You have a profit so sell it in after hours trading and take the money and run.

  106. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon πŸ™‚ thank you and I am pleased to be of help.
    I’ve head two major setbacks in the recent history (did not recognize the multi-year cycle low in FEB2016 of stock market until mid last year and the Scorch call for January) but otherwise I am doing well and even when I was/am wrong i do not get hurt too much thanks to strict Risk Management rules –> Gary has just come to know about that since I email him an excel file upon each of my trades computing exposures and equity at risk per trade and for all equity, so that he knows first hand what I am talking about my risk handling.

    Crude oil and CRB index have acted fantastic today and so have treasuries, JPY and gold –> healthy corrections showing buying on weakness.
    Furthermore, we have selling on strength in SM!
    All these allign to the short crude oil to come next week πŸ™‚

    PS: as commented yesterday, today at the open I pyramided to a full short NG position – I am on a small loss with it though but in slight profit on the overall short-NG position.

    1. bluelagoon

      Glad to hear you’ve been doing well Alex. I bought UGAZ down close to the low today at $13.15 but certainly left money on the table when I sold it – just didn’t want to hold it too long. I will be watching crude closely next week for an opportunity to short – I’m thinking it may not be until after the Thurs crude report…..crude may continue up until then. I find the reports are usually catalysts for turns.

  107. Bigdaddy

    Ha! Just like I predicted , SOSX made a big come back near the close and i am up on that position and will hold for more profit next week. GDX is up too and should take off next week. I hope some took my advice and loaded up.
    All you saps that are holding DUST are going to be wishing you had listened to BIgdaddy and sold at the top yesterday.

    1. Don

      BD: SOXS might be a winner if you have the patience. SOXS has a very interesting weekly chart as it has turned up on high volume. I have 500 shares at an average of $36 so I want to see plenty more downside for the semis (SOXX)

  108. desertsun999

    Gary, remember your premature email about your sentiment readings winning out over dollar my TA. I have to declare victory on this one big guy. I really don’t have a handle on how the PM’s are going to react to the 3yr cycle low but I can guarantee this much………its going to be volatile!

    1. Glblmltdwn

      Gary has been calling the Dixie decline since last summer, before it took off…..eventually he got it right.
      Now he’s bullish, and at one point he will be right again.

      1. Gary Post author

        I just try to get “close enough”.

        I don’t trade currencies. I wouldn’t touch those things with a 10′ pole.

        I think I got close enough with the energy trade.

        We’ve made a little and lost a little with the metal trade. Not surprising since it’s just gone back and forth for 4 months.

        I’ve made good money in stocks.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ll sell when the weekly stochastics get overbought again. I expect by that time we will have made a nice profit.

  109. Bigdaddy

    Today’s dunce hats go to mustang sally and Kuzoe. I was going to award one to primetime but i guess he really was complementing me and he is pretty damm smart anyway., so no dunce hat for him. Have a good weekend guys and see you all Monday.

    1. mustang sally

      Let er rip bigdaddy, before you can trade you head will be handed to you on the open. That’s if you even have a trade.

      Saddle up!!!

      Mustang Sally

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t recall us talking about the dollar. I do recall you saying gold had started another intermediate leg up… right before it dropped down to 1237.

      1. desertsun999

        Gary, I think I might have sent this to your old email.

        To
        Gary Savage

        Jun 17 at 10:08 AM

        Gary, this is what I would like to see happen with the dollar…………………………………………………………………………
        1. I want to call the January 2017 top the 8yr cycle top in the dollar.(matches up perfect with 1985 top, 32ys.)
        2. I would like to see the dollar continue to fall quite a bit lower over the next month, preferably to 92.50.
        3. At the end of that drop I would like to see the large spec’s in the dollar COT go bearish to create the 3yr cycle bottom.
        4. I would then like to see a 4 month consolidation range in the dollar after which the bear resumes

  110. Don

    Wow, almost the entire day’s SM gains were wiped out in the last ten minutes of trading. Strangely the VIX and it’s future, VXX, barely moved. The VIX is at a low level of 11.12 so there is plenty of complacency out there.

    1. roadrunner

      my 10 cents Don…i think the large traers, hedge funds/pension funds etc have done well for the first 6 months, time to bank some profits let the summer political calendar play out and if it goes the way they would like, ie: medical care reorganized ( with all the tax’s repealed) and tax reform, the market will rocket through the end of year. Of course I could be wrong.
      oh and have a happy 150 Canada Day, eh…one little, two little, three canadians…sing it! lol.

  111. mustang sally

    Well my first week, let me tell you I enjoyed all the interaction esp with Big daddy, not to many people to talk to at the old folks home, either deaf or senile, and to thank Gary for setting up this on line gambling site, my kids took all my money away so this is great. My tally for the week bought [email protected] closed at 31.15. Let me get out my counter, thats 7,500. That quite a few depends.

    Yipee

    See you Monday, esp my new friend Big Daddy

  112. Gary Post author

    The metal portfolio started the year at $150,000.
    We got as high as $276,000.

    Then we lost on a few trades, then won on a few more. Lost a couple and most recently gained on the last two.

    So as of today the metal portfolio is at $239,000.

    We’ve more or less been treading water since February, the same as the miners.

    1. Robert

      Some analysts r now saying miners will continue to chop even if gold drops. They say by next week or week after gold miners will start the bull rally to break out of the triangle

  113. ras

    The place to be for a while could be industrial metals: steel, iron, copper, etc. Crude has a nice white candle on the weekly. Oil first, oil stocks later. Pms go to the back burner. Every player needs to chalk out his own strategy after individual due diligence.

  114. jacob2

    Article in Barrons states that GS is selling it’s recently acquired Venezualan treasuries as it discovered that the goverment was in the process of selling it’s @7 billion dollars in gold reserves. If true can’t be good for the predictable late summer gold rally.

  115. babolat

    Gary
    First off, really like your work here and I’ve learned a lot from you. I appreciate that you share so much. I have taken some of your practices you share here into action myself with fairly good success (like buying when weekly slow stochastic is oversold and showing a divergence).

    I know you say you sell when that slow stochastic gets overbought. I’m wondering though when you actually pull the sell trigger.

    Do you sell when the….
    1) weekly slow stoch crosses over 80
    2) weekly slow stoch goes below 80 after sitting above 80
    3) weekly slow stoch shows a divergence (meaning price going up but slow stoch not exceed previous peak)

    The reason I ask is that strong up moves seem to stay overbought for some time. And in many of those moves the big move comes while overbought.

    babolat (pure strike!)

    1. Gary Post author

      Overbought isn’t an automatic sell. As you say in a bull market overbought an stay overbought.

      It’s more for the average retail trader that panics and sells when the stochastis are oversold. A better strategy is to wait until they become overbought before you think about selling. Classic example right now. Many people are selling energy stocks and likely taking losses. There’s just no need to do that IMO. Hold your position and wait for the stoahstics to become over bought and you will likely turn that losing position into a nice winner.

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